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bigpoppapump
25 Jun 18 14:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 5,934 | Blogger: bigpoppapump's blog
Airbus preparing to leave the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit and employs 8,000 people in the UK.

Brian Cox (clever lad on telly with the Space programmes and used to be in a band - PhD and what not) said:
"The unique thing about Brexit is that politics is going to collide with reality on a fixed date.  That rarely happens.  People like Fox and Johnson are bluster merchants.  Their experience of life is that bluster carries the day. Engineers don't factor rhetoric into their planning."

Are any of his 5 sentences incorrect?
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Report Rydal June 29, 2018 8:10 AM BST
You should be more cautious lfc. You may get what you wish for.

If we don't have the immigrants, then there will be no one to empty the bedpans and tuck us in when we all head off to the Betfair Twilight Care Home (quite soon in your case, I suspect) Grin
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 10:08 AM BST
nonsense Rydal , I am a little worn out but I am not old , not in the least
certainly not 80 and will hopefully  have made my escape from Britain long before that ...
of course the problems are happening now  with millions of immigrants now didn’t you notice ?
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 10:08 AM BST
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44649959

Good news for BAE.  As the ships will be built in Australia it's also good news for the Aussie economy, and a big shot in the arm for our Brexit worries.  This proves we'll be able to build stuff in Australia post-Brexit, so no need to worry about supply chain disruption...

or something.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 10:11 AM BST
I might go to Australia if it’s any better than Britain
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 10:32 AM BST
very good news nevertheless for BAE and Britain . That is simply trade , non of the nonsense required to worry about such as freedom of movement or Irish borders , take note the EU and Ireland and other backward countries
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 11:03 AM BST
UK manufacturing is in the toilet - nobody is spending anything and they're all sh1tting themselves. 

Nissan - demand for parts down 40%
Rolls royce
VW - UK CFO says they've an integrated dealer and parts network in Ireland which needs sorting but there's a £800m hole in the budget because sales are down and the pound is down 20%

all supply chains - specialist manufacturers - on the brink

logistics even worse.

across the board they say they re not being listened to.

Auto in the UK will just vanish in the event there's no deal (to achieve a BINO).

you lot probably wont stop dismissing it as project fear even after it's happened!
Report Rydal June 29, 2018 11:21 AM BST
lfc

I don't think they will let you into Australia. They are getting worried that too many immigrants are coming in and using resources. From todays news:

"Bob Carr, former Foreign Minister, who in 2000 famously declared that “Sydney was full”, has warned that Australia must curb its population intake if it wishes to preserve its natural landmarks.

In his new memoir, Run For Your Life, he offers this bleak hypothetical for Sydney’s future: “In the late 2020s towers overflowed from regional centres such as Parramatta and Penrith and filled in the land between."


So you are going to be trapped and stuck with the Betfair Twilight Care Home, after all. Hopefully, there will be a pleasant Rumanian lass who will give you a hand with your catheter drainage bag.....
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 11:43 AM BST
fair enough rydal that’s seems fair enough if they don’t want me I don’t want them : )
it can be easier to die amongst strangers
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 11:48 AM BST
* : (
Report Foinavon June 29, 2018 11:58 AM BST
We all get old, Rydal, and it arrives sooner than you think. This type of schadenfreude is a double edged sword.
Report Rydal June 29, 2018 12:39 PM BST
Foinavon

My first ever bet was on ESB (I had a good bet on The Fossa in your GN), so I do realise that I am a candidate too.

My mother-in-law is in care - 96, blind, and has had a stroke which leaves her marbles intact but her mobility limited. She is desperately grateful to the Philipinos and East Europeans who (along with some wonderful Brits as well) provide her with care, and doesn't want to lose them.

We need younger people and don't breed them ourselves.

Just saying think about what will happen if we f*ck this up.....
Report Foinavon June 29, 2018 12:59 PM BST
People will always come to where there are better paid jobs. All the young Asians of every nationality, West Indians and Africans you find in nursing and caring aren't here because of the EU free movement policy.
I live in a city which is fast becoming a "Majority minority city" and all my young neighbours seem to be having no trouble breeding. Three or more seems to be the norm.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 1:44 PM BST
The answer is simple, nursing and social care should be the same thing as part of the NHS , paid for by taxation

Not by importing thousands and thousands of immigrants and cheap labour
which ultimately drives costs up
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 1:47 PM BST
Laugh
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 1:50 PM BST
Rydals , or anyone else’s mother should not have to be desperately grateful  to anyone from the Philippines or Eastern Europe or any other country in the world
She would gave earned the right for that care from her own country and her own people and herself
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 1:50 PM BST
Sickening to think that it should be otherwise
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 1:53 PM BST
erm, Airbus employs 14,000 people in the UK.

Boeing employs 2,200 and has no plans to employ 40,000 more unless akabula could post a link?  I notice he's vanished from this thread.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 1:55 PM BST
Jacob Rees-Mogg's Hedge fund has created itself an EU lifeline by registering in Dublin in the event there's a no Deal Brexit. 
I do wonder why he thinks his business needs such a safety net but guess it's simple risk management?
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 1:57 PM BST
Pro-Brexit Welsh Conservative leader Andrew Davies has quit for inapprpriate remarks accusing Airbus of hyperbole.

Boris Johnson's "fk business" remarks in an effort to sooth fears in the business sector haven't seen him quit, so that's good. or something.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:03 PM BST
Well let’s see America is one country with however many jobs , and of course more aviation companies than just Boeing , who also provide jobs
Then there is Canada and Bombardier who provide jobs etc .. now the EU is 28 countries and at the minute Britain and France and Germany and Spain provide airbus jobs
When we leave we may still invest in Airbus as part of the EU , perhaps no change
If there is a change then we can use the same investment into our home aviation industry
That’s good
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:05 PM BST
Lear jet are another American company that provide aviation jobs in Britain
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:05 PM BST
sorry lfc was there a point to that post?  reads as if you've been out in the sun a little long.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:06 PM BST
can you - or anyone - post a link to the 40,000 Boeing jobs or will akabula apologise?

or - 1.01 - neither will happen...
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:07 PM BST
Now don’t forget that is jobs and profits going to British alone , not to be split between the rest of the EU
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:08 PM BST
BMW employs 8,000 directly in the UK with another 14,000 indirectly in its dealer network.  Assume they'll keep the dealerships even if they move manufacturing?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:10 PM BST
Bp I am pointing out the no of jobs that Britain’s links to America and the aviation industry provide
As part of the EU then of course the Airbus jobs are by definition British jobs provided by ourselves
But the American jobs , they are provided by America
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:12 PM BST
BP BMW is here in Britain because this is Britain , no other reason
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:14 PM BST
The Business - Airbus - says it may have to abandon its UK operation if there's no Brexit deal.  It must be desperate because it's Broughton plant has had a $2b investment.  Airbus employs 14,000 uk workers.

I assume you're not one of them, because you don't seem to have clicked that this is bad news.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:15 PM BST
BP BMW is here in Britain because this is Britain , no other reason

nope.  They're here because of money.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:16 PM BST
That’s good that’s what I said
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:18 PM BST
I go on holiday because a country is a country (no other reason).

BMW are here to make money, no other reason.  and if they cannot make money they wont stay "because it"s Britian"  (even if they knew you'd said so).
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:19 PM BST
BP Airbus does employ 14,000 workers as part of Britain
Not anywhere else
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:20 PM BST
no one would expect BMW to stay here if they don’t make money , of course
That would be silly
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:21 PM BST
Airbus employed 129,000 people globally in 2017.

So plenty of anywhere else.  For what it's worth - appreciate this fact wont land and you'll ramble off in a different direction and eventually arrive at immigration.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:23 PM BST
Well there you are , I don’t think Britain is doing very well out of our investment in Airbus and being part of the EU if all those jobs are going elsewhere
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:24 PM BST
it's not your fault - or other Brexit voters - if the economy takes a massive smash from the Brexit.

although you were warned, you also had lots of people telling you it was all tosh and a deal would get done (it still might).  So don't feel like you need to defend a decision once (if) it looks to have been a bad one.  you're entitled to your vote, and that's democracy.

Plain
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:24 PM BST
Wonder where all those jobs are going to ?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:25 PM BST
Maybe to others EU countries or even countries outside the EU , 129 000
Hmmm
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:27 PM BST
Well there you are , I don’t think Britain is doing very well out of our investment in Airbus and being part of the EU if all those jobs are going elsewhere

who do you think owns Airbus? 

(it's not a trick question - this is public information)
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:27 PM BST
I don’t know , ever get the feeling you haven’t got a very good deal , well the numbers don’t look good however you count them
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:28 PM BST
are you saying airbus should have its entire global operation in the UK?

and if it doesn't the "jobs are going elsewhere"  Laugh
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:29 PM BST
of course not , where are those 129 000 jobs going to then  ?
just asking
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:30 PM BST
Let’s start with France and Germany
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:31 PM BST
what do you mean by "going to"?

that implies they are moving? 

are you asking where does airbus employ people?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:33 PM BST
Well you are the one who mentioned the 129.000 jobs, not me
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:35 PM BST
As of 22 June 2018, 73.6 % of Airbus Group stock is publicly traded on six European stock exchanges, while the remaining 26.4 % is owned by a "Contractual Partnership". As at 26 April 2018, the partnership is owned by SOGEPA (11.1%), GZBV (11.1%) and SEPI (4.2%). SOGEPA is owned by the French State, GZBV is majority owned by KfW, while SEPI is a Spanish state holding company.[84]
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:37 PM BST
they employ 129,000 globally and if the UK leaves the EU without a deal Airbus has said it may have to move its UK operations (14,000 direct employees).  Clearly they do not want to do this - it will be very expensive in plant costs (they recently invested $2b in Broughton in Cheshire) and loss of Human Capital.  Hence their recent attempts to influence the Brexit negotiations.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:38 PM BST
very good, now the jobs which countries are getting the jobs ( any government money , including British helping to finance these jobs all over the world ?) and in France and Germany
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:39 PM BST
yep we should pull our funding, it's all our money is airbus, bloody foreigners nicking our jobs.


Crazy
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:39 PM BST
So they employ 129, 000 globally
And 14 000 in Britain
What’s going on and why is it a good thing to be part of the EU again ?
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:39 PM BST
we should bring nissan back from Japan too
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:40 PM BST
You see Britain is funding Airbus , but where are the jobs going ..France Germany ,elsewhere
That’s not good
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:42 PM BST
So they employ 129, 000 globally
And 14 000 in Britain
What’s going on and why is it a good thing to be part of the EU again ?


so the EU has uniform regulations for manufacturing business - effectively it's one country.

therefore an International company like Airbus can have people making things in the UK as part of an integrated pan EU supply chain.  Decide you want to take back control?  you can change your laws but, if you leave the EU, then manufacturing companies like Airbus need to know they'll be able to meet EU requirements.  If not, they have to move their operations away from the country with the unknown laws.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:42 PM BST
You see Britain is funding Airbus

?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:43 PM BST
Don’t suppose they give preference to rolls Royce engines do they
Or maybe it might be boring or other companies as well
I’m sure it would be easier to buy rolls Royce. you know as part of the EU?
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:44 PM BST
you're going to have to provide some evidence for that - i've already shown you their corporate ownership structure.  So what's your evidence for this alt-fact?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:45 PM BST
Do Airbus buy Rills Royce engines , or is it Ameican  engines as well , you know a country outside the EU
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:46 PM BST
before we move on, please provide evidence that Britain funds Airbus
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:48 PM BST
Britain as part of the EU funds Airbus , if you know anything about aviation. hardly any aircraft company makes a profit
Including Boeing
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:48 PM BST
Boeing made $3b in 2017
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:49 PM BST
The A380 has never made a profit , and may never do so
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:49 PM BST
Bowing is more than aircraft production , don’t worry about that
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:49 PM BST
Britain as part of the EU funds Airbus

2 problems with that statement.

1.  i've already shown you Airbus ownership structure.
2.  UK leaving the Eu.

Britain doesn't fund airbus.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:50 PM BST
Boeing made $3b in 2017
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:50 PM BST
ok
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:51 PM BST
you can keep going with your drivel for ever and you wont change the real world.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:52 PM BST
Boeing is more than aircraft , I doubt it’s aircraft make a profit , and airbus get government subsidies from Britain to keep it afloat
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:54 PM BST
bp you haven’t explained how airbus employ 129 000 people worldwide
or how they manage to buy from outside the EU , including American engines as well
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:55 PM BST
You see Boeing is selling those engines to airbus , at a profit
Understand ? That’s engines not aircraft
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:58 PM BST
It’s a complucated business aviation , Boeing may make a profit on its 747 or 777 it may not
But of course the company is a giant and employs thousands of people
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 2:59 PM BST
Will the A380 ever make a profit? I doubt it
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 2:59 PM BST
Airbus employs people globally in countries that have trade deals with the EU.

If we leave WITHOUT A DEAL the UK will not be in the same boat as the US (to use you example).

Get it?  They are saying a NO DEAL BREXIT is a problem.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 3:00 PM BST
they are not saying the UK has to stay in the EU to keep people employed here - they are saying the absence of a deal with the EU would be the problem.

And your examples reinforce this point:  The US has a trade deal with the EU.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 3:01 PM BST
The UK needs one too...
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 3:01 PM BST
There is no trade deal neede for aviation , thankyou
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 3:04 PM BST
Now if you are saying that the Americans have negotiated a special deal , a better deal than the one we have now as members of the EU
That means it can sell engines that airbus
That doesn’t say very much for being part of the EU then does it?
You really are going to have to think logically bigpop
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 4:48 PM BST
airbus makes things in the UK which form a part of a wider European manufacturing process.

if the UK is not in the EU and doesn't have a deal for continued (disruption free) pan-EU manufacture then companies like Airbus/BMW will encounter new obstacles to having parts of their process in the UK.  They may (Airbus announced as much this week) have to relocate those operations.

so - using logic - please tell me why they are wrong.  and please provide evidence to support your qualification for knowing more about running a global business than their CEO.

They don't want to leave by the way; they've made huge investments here.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 4:59 PM BST
Why should it matter if they are made in the UK or America or any other part of the world ?
What are the specific difficulties that the ceo of airbus refers to we would have to know that first before it’s possible to comment
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:00 PM BST
Go ahead bp , what did he say ?
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:05 PM BST
you've already chosen to comment based on your preconceived ideas - now what, you're uncommenting until I give you specifics upon which to comment?

proper headbanger this lad.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:07 PM BST
Well I didn’t particular want to comment without the facts
I love and honour facts ...
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:11 PM BST
the facts are they are trying to influence the Brexit negotiations because no deal is going to cost them a fortune (as they'll have to leave - according to their CEO).  I've no idea why anyone other than insiders at Airbus can know this is a bluff (as the Brexiteers here so confidently assert).  Logic suggests new trade barriers/divergent standards would be an actual problem.  It's a consistent message from business leaders - the auto industry evidence before the parliamentary select committee suggests it's real.  Calmly and matter of factly the people from Renault and Aston Martin explained their different business models and why they need clarity around the future UK/EU relationship. 

They're not making it up.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:17 PM BST
Yes that might be true , let’s look at airbus
What will be the particular and specific problem in regard to a product manufactured in Britain or one manufactured in America for example ?
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:18 PM BST
I'm not claiming to be qualified to answer that - I defer to their CEO's comments.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:19 PM BST
You see I would like to know why they have to leave
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:19 PM BST
ok, we don’t know
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:20 PM BST
but in general terms I understand the difference to be that there are already arrangements in place between the US and the EU, and the CEO of Airbus is saying there needs to be a deal between the UK and the EU.

you appear to be saying it's all the same and he's what? wrong? making it up?  there doesn't need to be a UK/EU deal?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:23 PM BST
certainly for aviation there is no need to have a deal , not sure what the American deal is but if it is better then we should have the same deal
That’s fine
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:24 PM BST
You see I would like to know why they have to leave

because of the part of the Leave Campaign which is true:  the Eu is a protectionist trading block, and you have to abide by their rules to waltz in and out of their massive market.

Thus it follows - if you're not in the EU, you need an agreement about your access (for trade), and pan European supply chains rely on freedom to go cross-national borders as if they are not there.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:25 PM BST
not for aviation
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:26 PM BST
if we are outside the EU, they demand we adhere to their standards before they'll play.  Thus - you can think you're taking back control - but you cannot really (unless you destroy panEU business). 

This is the unbaking of the cake which was mentioned once or twice during the campaign.

it's real - not invented.
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:28 PM BST
We are smaller than them.  500m people versus 65m

We need each other but we need them more.  Brexit would have been less stupid if we could have known the EU would split - it still might - but if it doesn't then they have more leverage than we do.  See our recent attempts to use security as a chip.

So - in aviation - it's an issue if they say it is.

Get used to this:  EU/UK negotiations are not between equal partners.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:28 PM BST
well it doesn’t seem to be much of a problem for America to adhere to aviation standards
I’m sure Britain can do so as well
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:29 PM BST
US is massive.  EU is less important to US than it is to UK because of geography.

you keep using the US as an example as if their situation corresponds to ours.  It really doesn't.
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:30 PM BST
In aviation Britain wants to adhere to the highest possible standards
Report bigpoppapump June 29, 2018 5:31 PM BST
good.   not sure why you say that, but it seems a good thing. 

maybe Airbus can stay after all?
Report lfc1971 June 29, 2018 5:35 PM BST
If they can tell us what the problems are and why they cannot stay then we will be getting somewhere

So far neither the ceo of airbus, or even yourself bp can say what they are
When you can get back to us , thanks
Report Foinavon June 29, 2018 11:20 PM BST
Here is an interesting announcement by JCB, has it been reported by Brussels Broadcasting Co yet?

https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/news/2018/06/50-million-investment-in-new-british-plant
Report InsiderTrader June 30, 2018 11:10 AM BST
bigpoppapump
29 Jun 18 17:26
Joined: 16 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 5,446 | Blogger: bigpoppapump's blog
if we are outside the EU, they demand we adhere to their standards before they'll play.  Thus - you can think you're taking back control - but you cannot really (unless you destroy panEU business). 

^

Of course if we want to sell into another country we have to apply their standards for the things we sell them. For the EU, for China, for Japan, for USA etc etc.

But that does not mean every UK company not selling to the EU (or anywhere else) has to have their standards. This is the point.
Report bigpoppapump July 2, 2018 12:59 PM BST
pan-Eu supply chains apply to complex manufacturing like Auto and Aerospace.  This is the point.

They cannot stay here if they cannot make their stuff, and their components are not always available locally.

Don't get me wrong - a weak pound and a different regulatory environment may help some manufacturing, but it will destroy others.

Appreciate you guys "wont have" this, but it's true.
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