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TheBetterBettor
22 Jun 18 11:05
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Date Joined: 10 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 44,174 | Blogger: TheBetterBettor's blog
Lets stop ar$eine about and really put our cards on the table.  Either vote for the following. ...

A 'fudgey' brexit with a wishywashy customs agreement where we can't strike new trade deals or really control free movement

Or

'Hardcore' Brexit....Where we completely severe ties with the e.u., sign up to WTO and build a wall slap bang in the middle of Buggleskelly.


I vote for 'Fudgie'
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Report detraveller June 22, 2018 11:59 AM BST
Apologies in advance for the digression. When I was about 4 years old we went on a picnic with my family and that of my uncle. We stopped at one place and my father gave us the options of the places to visit(Zoo, park, playland etc). We had to choose one as it wasn't possible to cover all of them. So all us kids started giving our opinions. The elders did too. A cousin of mine, approximately my age, wanted to go to the zoo. She clearly told everyone else, take your time, decide amongst yourselves, and when you are done, let's go to the zoo. As it turned out she made us go to the zoo. But after we had all voted for our favorite destination.

Like it or hate it, you can vote for whatever you like. But Brexit is just not happening. 2 years on and people still haven't realized that. You of course have the right to vote, but at the end, you will have to do whatever the EU bosses decide.
Report salmon spray June 22, 2018 12:18 PM BST
I was actually in favour of leaving but,rather stupidly,assumed that people like Farage,Johnson,Gove etc had thought through how this was to be done. As they obviously hadn't I can't see how we can leave without some fudged deal that leaves us worse off than before.
I haven't changed my view on the EU which is clearly dysfunctional,undemocratic and largely corrupt but we seem to have embedded ourselves so firmly in it that we can't get out.
Report moisok June 22, 2018 1:28 PM BST
I am voting remain - I am frightened about the emergency budget they will have to bring in
Potatoes will rot in the ground, children will miss their mothers and the navy will have no fuel to set to sea.  Plus my parrot is not well.
hope this helps
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 2:32 PM BST
And you will have to cancel your order for an Airbus A380 Mo as it will be wingless. What are we to do?
Report melv June 22, 2018 3:47 PM BST
A 'fudgey' brexit with a wishywashy customs agreement where we can't strike new trade deals or really control free movement

Oh yes yes yes indiddly diddly deedy deed.

Otherwise known as the realistic response from this bitterly divided country that had no idea what it was doing from the start and still hasn't a clue. Practical common sense. And you lot get Brexit and that's all you voted for. And we get the rest. Fair cop. Summat for everyone.

WE would rather not have gone through this insane expensive pointless pitiless pantomime. You caused it....I won't hold my breath for any apologies from you.
Report donny osmond June 22, 2018 3:56 PM BST
why cant we have option 3 ?
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 3:58 PM BST
Have you seen Yanis's tweets this morning Melv? Here's a good one for you.

Yanis Varoufakis

Verified account

@yanisvaroufakis
6h6 hours ago
More
Europe's descent into greater denial  is in full swing. They extend the Greek state"s bankruptcy into 2060 and they call it debt...relief. They reject every single one of Macron's modest proposals and they call it a new era for the €. Next they will make a desert & call it peace.
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 4:02 PM BST
If Macron is ignored, then you know who really runs the roost. Say it softly lest your name be noted down, it really is the new German Empire.
Report melv June 22, 2018 4:02 PM BST
No but thanks very much. I think even the most swivel eyed patriot on here will appreciate his mastery of the English language and literature. I have seen him  speak several times and he seems to love this country very much.


Hero.
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 4:07 PM BST
I agree with all that even if he is left wing. I have read most of his books and read his Twitter posts every day (those which are in English or have been translated).
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 5:25 PM BST
Nein to a fudgy Brexit, if you are going to do something, do it properly.
A good deal such as a free trade deal would be best, otherwise "Hardcore" for me.
Report melv June 22, 2018 5:51 PM BST
Looks like a Foinavon Bespoke fudge there. I don't know what you mean by free trade?


Trump's free Trade means free to take over the NHS. And a tremendous tremendous win win for a protectionist America first.

I note some are wanting to have a  "flip" deal with Canada. Which means keep exactly the same rules and regualtions that the Canada/EU aleady has. ????????????
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 6:51 PM BST
Free trade means no tariffs. Tariffs are ultimately a tax on your own consumers and the EU obliges us to impose big percentages on food and textiles imported from non EU countries. They are also counter-productive as they don't encourage your protected producers to become more efficient.
Free trade means just that, no strings like free movement of people or interference by foreign governments in your lawmaking and foreign policy and no feudal dues to a central authority.

If the EU won't agree to a free trade agreement, then next best will be to trade under WTO rules. We will also be free of America's selective tariffs on the EU (aimed at Germany) which we will currently have to endure for as long as we are members of the CU.
Report moisok June 22, 2018 7:34 PM BST
the fourth reich simply cannot afford for brexit to succeed - or it will be Normandy all over again
Report Rydal June 22, 2018 7:48 PM BST
Hi Foinavon

There is a bit of a problem with the "WTO rules" argument (You may have picked this up from John Longworth on the World at One). Here is a twitter thread from the ex-World Trade Editor of the FT which illustrates the difficulties we will face:

1/ John Longworth of Leave Means Leave was on BBC WATO saying that most trade in the world is done on basis of "WTO rules" and that most countries trade with the EU on that basis. Every part of that statement is wrong and betrays breathtaking ignorance.

2/ The UK already trades on "WTO rules", as does every other WTO member, and always has done. It's a requirement of WTO membership. What Longworth seems to mean is "WTO terms", which is quite different: these are the basic MFN (Most Favoured Nation) commitments made by WTO members.

3/ Not one single country trades on "WTO terms" for the simple reason that they all know that it would be massively disadvantageous and economically damaging. That is why all WTO members have preferential trade agreements with others.

4/ It is equally wrong to say that most countries trade with the EU on "WTO terms". The EU currently has preferential trade arrangements (PTAs) with ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY other countries that provide for lower tariffs. Here is the UK government's list:
UK Trade Tariff: preferential trade arrangements for countries outside the EU: https://bit.ly/2KdAHXn

5/ According to the US Congressional Research Service, 70% of EU exports benefited from PTAS in 2008 and the proportion has almost certainly increased since then. That is an advantage that the UK would lose immediately if it moved to "WTO terms".

6/ Even trade with the US, with which the EU has no PTA, is governed by about 20 bilateral agreements covering vital sectors such as air transport. Moving to "WTO terms" without negotiating them would mean that many UK transatlantic flights would be grounded immediately..

7/ With barely nine months to go until B-day `(it sounds even better in French) such negotiations have yet to get seriously under way - like those on replacing more than 750 other EU treaties with third countries that immediately lapse at the same time.

8/ Does Mr Longworth really not know any of this? Or does he know it and is deliberately saying things he knows to be untrue? I am copying this to him and look forward to his answer. If he remains silent or blocks me, the answer will be pretty obvious.

(No reply from John Longworth yet).

Today it was Airbus and BMW warning of the consequences of a hard Brexit. Yesterday, it was the Freight Transport Association. Of course, you may write it off as Project Fear - let's pray that you are right.
Report enpassant June 22, 2018 8:03 PM BST
Surely some  ' let's just get on with it's' will sort all this mess out ?
Or perhaps a 'will of the people' that must be good for trade deals yes ?
If not bring out the big gun 'make Britain great again' will get those pesky others falling into line .
Report lfc1971 June 22, 2018 8:07 PM BST
Flights need not be grounded , the same rules will apply until new ones come into line
Report lfc1971 June 22, 2018 8:10 PM BST
Every single country did trade under WTO rules and before that without WTO rules at some point
It wasn’t a problem then , trade deals take time to negotiate , over time
And should do
Report lfc1971 June 22, 2018 8:12 PM BST
To try and make it simple , trade deals are an evolutionary process
Not something that should happen quickly or overnight
Report Rydal June 22, 2018 8:18 PM BST
.... let's hope they can get them done before we fly away on our holidaysWink
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 8:20 PM BST
Hi Rydal,
Thanks for your detailed post.
Whether or not the UK and the EU reach mutually acceptable trading arrangements, the Department of Trade should be rolling over existing EU agreements with other countries into UK agreements.
We cannot negotiate or sign trade deals with other countries until B-Day (Jour-B?), presumably why May has asked for an extension.
Report Rydal June 22, 2018 8:31 PM BST
Foinavon

I think you will find that the other countries (and in some cases, their trading partners) will have to agree to that. Also, in many cases, it will require sharing out existing quotas (not an easy task). It is tempting to think that it will all work out ok because it has to work out ok - the alternative is too bad to think of; but these agreements didn't just appear. They were negotiated over a long period of time and involved a lot of give and take. I just hope you are right.
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 9:09 PM BST
Since they are already trading with us on those terms, it would be in their interest as well as ours to continue on the same terms until improved arrangements can be negotiated.

Most of the nations with preferential arrangements on the EU list are minnows and some of the larger trading nations, notably USA, do not. We trade with them already and that will continue. We will have the opportunity of negotiating better deals with them once we leave, assuming we don't fall for a "fudgey" Brexit as described by the OP.
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 9:13 PM BST
*do not have preferential arrangements.
Report salmon spray June 22, 2018 10:44 PM BST
Why would these countries give us better terms than they do with the EU ?
Report Foinavon June 22, 2018 11:12 PM BST
That remains to be seen Salmon Spray, it depends on negotiations. The EU is protectionist especially for agriculture. We are a large net importer of food so is a bargaining chip as we wouldn't impose the tariffs which the EU enforces at the moment.
Report enpassant June 22, 2018 11:19 PM BST
"It has been a source of exasperation for some cabinet members that although many companies have privately expressed concern - even alarm - at the progress of the Brexit negotiations, they have been reluctant to make their fears public, and have even dialled down the shrillness of their warnings when meeting the prime minister in person.

Airbus's decision to warn that future investment in their operations in the UK is under review, while not exactly welcome, is therefore considered by some in government as an honest and helpful declaration of what's at stake for UK workers and the wider economy. "
Report Foinavon June 23, 2018 12:32 AM BST
Companies have the right to locate their premises where they see fit. It is up to the government to ensure that the UK remains an attractive place for businesses to operate.
Relocation of Airbus manufacturing to distant non-EU nations like China or the USA is not going to advantage their supply chain over staying in the UK. Relocating in Europe might incur other costs which they currently duck by manufacturing in the UK. Any transfer overseas would certainly be expensive to carry out, the costs of which would need to be seen to be recoverable over a relatively short time span.

The clip you have posted, empassant, sounds like a political statement rather than an economic argument.
Report melv June 23, 2018 2:45 AM BST
Free trade means just that, no strings like free movement of people or interference by foreign governments in your lawmaking and foreign policy and no feudal dues to a central authority.

Dear Foin all trade deals mean give and take which mean accepting other countries rules and regulations. Trump will be trying to get  deals massively and tremendously  in America firsts favour. And if all this bllshyt collapses we are going to be desperate, weak and going in cap in hand.

India; another tiny country; will seize on our weakness and demand free movement for its workers. I am sure Brexiteers will be delighted to have millions of Indian doctors Hi Tec professionals and other high skill workers from India coming here. That'll help your kids get training and better jobs.

Brexit is very badly thought out. Its appallingly thought out..... It wasn't thought out at all....was it?????.....And it still isn't thought out. The Tories are acting as if all that is necessary is that they cobble together some fudgey agreement with themselves. Its the effin EU who have to agree not some utterly divided Tory party.
Report melv June 23, 2018 2:52 AM BST
THAT WAS A VOTE FOR FUDGY Brexit taking advantage of 45 years experience of working closely with our European partners and our many shared cultural values.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 7:48 AM BST
Newsnight last night - A chap representing business on the Tory brexiteer's rhetoric.

Not verbatim :
'It may be a little unfair because he doesn't come from an analysis or evidenced based position but from assertions.....'

sums up hardliners imo.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 7:53 AM BST
From my experience business tend to pay more attention to profit margins than to politics.
Report Foinavon June 23, 2018 8:29 AM BST
From my experience business tend to pay more attention to profit margins than to politics

True, which is why we don't need to get overexcited by politically motivated comment. This country is already a good place to do business, a greater threat than Brexit would be the election of a Labour government which would increase trade union powers, increase employment costs and increase taxation especially on corporations and high earners.
Report Foinavon June 23, 2018 8:35 AM BST
Melv, Indian professionals already come here and are very welcome, but millions of them? Get a grip, they will only come where there are vacant highly paid jobs for them to do.

I don't think any British government would agree trade deals involving large scale free movement from third world countries. The desperation seems to be in the camp of remainers to invent yet more emotive scenarios.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 9:05 AM BST
'overexcited' 'politically motivated' these are your terms for what others may say are clear warnings from hard nosed business people.
I suspect you are right that Labour would at least maintain working rights and, more likely, may extend them; whereas a post brexit Tory party would likely have a bonfire of regulations of workers rights.
Report TheBetterBettor June 23, 2018 9:13 AM BST
Looks like a 'wishywashy' brexit seems to win the day...

Lots of intellectual paragraph typing from the usual suspects, but again a lot of fence sitting....
.
.
.
.



http://theconversation.com/brexit-this-poll-reveals-a-sad-truth-about-britain-and-northern-ireland-98722

Recent polling from Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft suggests that two-thirds of pro-Brexit voters would rather leave the Customs Union than avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, and that six out of ten people surveyed “would not mind either way” if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK
Report Foinavon June 23, 2018 9:20 AM BST
Not fudgey or wishy-washy, that's a bog roll Brexit according to Boris.
Report Foinavon June 23, 2018 9:35 AM BST
I'm sure the government are listening to their concerns, enpassant, which is why this shouldn't be allowed to drag on ad infinitum. Business doesn't like uncertainty but can adapt to reality. I hope the EU are listening too, a free trade deal would be best for business but it seems they want to punish the UK for leaving, pour encourager les autres.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 11:46 AM BST
Well it's certain they cannot give us such a good deal that other EU nations think 'we'll have some of that'.
Report salmon spray June 23, 2018 12:26 PM BST
They certainly can't give us a better deal than Norway and Switzerland have.
Report melv June 23, 2018 12:35 PM BST
There are quotas for Indian Doctors and hospitals are suffering because they have ben unable to appoint Indian Doctors that they have offered a job due to quotas.


This from the Sun. Hardly a biased remainer.


But he said India is in no hurry to strike a free trade deal.
And warning Britain that a free trade deal would have to involve opening our borders to Indian migrants, Mr Sinha told Politico: "It is very important that if we need to step up our engagement we need to have that easier access, the ease of travel has to be looked into."


I would be surprised if the are not a cetain element of Brexiteeers who would not like the sound of that at all.
Report melv June 23, 2018 12:43 PM BST
Looks like a 'wishywashy' brexit seems to win the day...

Sure looks like it. Its all gone quiet from the buccaneers.

If you think sound biting bog roll Boris give a flyingfu  ckabout the zombie towns in the Telford to Tyneside swathe then you lot are as delirious as even. He is a populist playing to a gullible audience. Its all just to stay in the public eye till he gets the chance for the PM job; his life time goal. Then to will  have our own lying Trump in the from of a Winston Churchill impersonator.


And that's not impossible.
Report melv June 23, 2018 12:44 PM BST
Then we to will  have our own lying Trump in the from of a Winston Churchill impersonator.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 1:06 PM BST
There are simply not enough deeply stupid people in this country to vote that clown into office.
Report melv June 23, 2018 1:23 PM BST
There are simply not enough deeply stupid people in this country to vote that clown into office.


I hope to God you are right. But were not a lot of people saying that about Trump. Now Some are saying he will win a second term of office.


This does not only reveal the nature of Joe public. It also shows how weak useless and ineffectual all the other politicians are.


Are these idiot s really running the world?????????


Yanis Varoufakis says the people with the most power are the financiers and therefore they are pulling the strings. Including Trumps strings.


If the financiers do not want your personal form of Brexit you are not having it. End of. The politicians have very little power..... and you have non. They are too sly to insult you to your face.
So Fudgev  Brexit it will be NAP.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 1:34 PM BST
Yanis Varoufakis says the people with the most power are the financiers and therefore they are pulling the strings. Including Trumps strings.


If the financiers do not want your personal form of Brexit you are not having it. End of. The politicians have very little power..... and you have non. They are too sly to insult you to your face.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree completely with these points. Trump is simply the blunt instrument to do the will of those with the power and when they have exhausted his usefulness, he will be gone.
Report Ski-Wiz June 23, 2018 2:26 PM BST
Do tariff make goods cheaper? No. It's all scam, remove one tax and increase other taxes = no overall tax reduction. Pay attention. At one time the VAT was 12.5% and regulation were low = low compliance cost added to cost of goods. Tariff was removed and thus cheaper goods, for a little while. Vat went up to 15% and compliance cost went up. Vat went up to 17.5% and compliance cost went up. Vat went up to 20% and compliance cost went up. All the stupid suffocating regulations from the EU pushed up the cost of goods and services. Now compare, goods plus tariff plus vat at 12.5% (1980s) versus now, goods, no tariff, heavy compliance cost, various new taxes and ever rising TV tax, council tax, vat at 20%, ever increasing welfare and public service costs for free loading immigrants, foreign aids to Europe (you lot call it membership). We are all worse off so tariff free trades within the EU has no gains, it was wiped out a long time ago. Do the maths. A good produced cost £10 plus 20% vat = £12 - £2 increase. A good produced cost £10 plus £2 compliance cost = £12; plus 20% vat = £14.40 - £2.40 increase. So more vat is stolen in monetary terms despite the % being the same. We are not better off. It's all a fantasy. Getting out of the EU allows us to get rid of the stupid compliance cost, stop paying immigrant a penny in welfare and public services, i mean absolute £0, zero. Cut waste in public spending and reduce the taxes on businesses. Thus a good produced cost £6 plus 20% vat = £7.20 - £1.20 increase. Great for consumers in UK and great for exports = win win. A good produced cost £6 plus 20% tariff to the EU (for example) = £7.20 - £1.20 increase. Trade will not be affected and we can export more despite added tariff and Eu consumers will get cheaper goods. win win.

The idiots calling themselves politicians and negotiators and stupid. They do not understand finance and economics.
Report enpassant June 23, 2018 3:14 PM BST
'free loading immigrants' - all one needs to know about where you're coming from.
Report moisok June 23, 2018 3:21 PM BST
420,000 romanians - thought it was officially only 13000 coming  - absolutely no effect on resources

or the other 7 million or so
Report melv June 23, 2018 5:11 PM BST
Hi Better Bettor.

I have not seen anyone who fervently believes we are going to get any form of hard Brexit. And plenty; whether its ideal for them or not; accept that we are going to get a soft Brexit like it or not.


Nice pol bettor. I hope the EU are listening and they can start making us an offer.


BTW Nobody has mnetioned the Irish border. I presume they are all expecting there to be no irish Border whether they like it or not. So, as many are saying, lets effin get on with it.
Report sageform June 24, 2018 3:11 PM BST
Ski wiz you are right but the public love regulations to make sure every product is safe to eat etc. but they have no idea how much it adds to costs. Tariffs are a 2 edged sword. They don't benefit consumers but home producers get the chance to compete and expand as many Russians would testify after US boycotts on their goods and their ban on EU food imports. The latest rubbish about putting calorie counts on every meal or take-away is typical. The big chains will be able to do it for no extra cost but a small pub or restaurant may well go out of business. Will they have to estimate the calorie count of what you leave on your plate as well?
Report tony57 June 25, 2018 9:38 AM BST
melv
your so fanatical you make no sense on the economic arguments...tell me what is so good about the eu when it is so protectionist? its tarrifs against the poorer countrys shows it is racist in its policys..the WHITE protectionist CLUB IN EUROPE..making sure the black people in africa cannot sell their goods into the eu without taxes? britain has let down the commonwealth by siding with a economic club that is everything YOU SAY you dont want to be?

those of you who think you can change the EU from within are living in a fantasy land..the eu would have to change the treatys to change what WE CALL REFORM ?that means ALL 27 agreeing to start all over again?please stop thinking this can be done..as with the greek policy last week they make the greeks shoulder a massive debt they can never repay for the sake of what it looks like instead of reality? the germans want their money back in 2060?

if we leave and elect a labour goverment we can put right a lot of the wrongs

we will never have a trump policy, trump will never have a effect on this country, and will be out of office in 2yrs..
Report moisok June 25, 2018 1:55 PM BST
the fourth  reich is applying pressure from every direction to maintain hegemony in europe

they need to punish those who do not follow their line so they(germany) can maintain their false trading position

you can already see how nasty they are with their treatment of greece and the nations opposing mass immigration

this is from the same mouths who talk about the eu being some sort of lovely cuddly family

yes they are right - more like the family of cosa nostra
Report moisok June 25, 2018 1:57 PM BST
if germany still had the Mark - their products would be expensive compared to other countries' products
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