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Dr Crippen
08 Jan 18 10:28
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 2,732 | Blogger: Dr Crippen's blog
Teresa May.
Gone by Christmas, lucky to see out the month, going in the autumn, dead woman walking.
I can't remember anyone having a good word to say about her since the GE, all she'd had is constant criticism and speculation that she's on the brink of going.

All wrong as usual.

Much the same as the barrage of criticism that Trump has faced after he were elected. And the BBC still hasn't recovered from the shock of that. What an awful organisation the BBC is, with sexism over pay now added to their growing list of discriminatory wrongdoings.
The answer there is to privatise it and pronto.
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Report Meadow X1 January 8, 2018 10:39 AM GMT
Only in name. She has little support even within her own party let alone the current opinion polls. It is embarrassing that she cost many conservative mps their jobs by calling a selfish election but doesn't have the decency to resign. The DUP is effectively the government now.
Report Dr Crippen January 8, 2018 11:28 AM GMT
When she called the election I didn't hear one voice saying she was making a mistake.
In fact many were betting on the Conservatives getting 100 + majority.
It was a forgone conclusion. To say now she was wrong to call the election is after timing in the extreme.
Report Meadow X1 January 8, 2018 11:42 AM GMT
The folks that were betting on a 100+ majority such as yourself perhaps lost a lot of money. Others like myself had one of their best ever politics betting results.
Report Meadow X1 January 8, 2018 11:43 AM GMT
It was far from a "forgone conclusion".
Report alun2005 January 8, 2018 11:59 AM GMT
Let's all thank our lucky stars that May is PM and not Traitor Corbyn and the Left's 'gentler, kinder' politics of Hate.
Report Dr Crippen January 8, 2018 2:28 PM GMT
Others like myself had one of their best ever politics betting results.

More aftertiming?
Report Meadow X1 January 8, 2018 2:33 PM GMT
http://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30859871/general-election-betting#flvWelcomeHeader

It's all there. Opinion polls, constituency and overall seats, vote share etc posted in advance.  Remember, this is a betting site.
Report donny osmond January 8, 2018 11:22 PM GMT
another glorious day for political journalists


meadow is one of the few on the forum who comments on political betting that i find worth reading

certainly over the past year or so

not that many seem to bother with the betting aspect any more

well done to those that backed may to last this far, i did not, but thought , without any great conviction,
she would last until after brexit, ...maybe she will, maybe she wont. ...i cant see a replacement agreeable
to both sides of tory party.
Report anxious January 8, 2018 11:25 PM GMT
The
Report jumper3 January 9, 2018 7:50 AM GMT
The older I get, the more apolitical I get. The challenge for May and the Tories will be to aim to win over the increasingly large numbers of those on middle to lower incomes who will naturally tend towards Labour. At the same time a Labour party moving to the left leaves a void in the centre for the Tories to grab some of? Most likely as there is no other centrist grouping. Lib Dems? Cannot see them getting the numbers, first past the post not ideal for them although a good election circa 2010 could give them a role in a future minority government. If I was Labour, I would be working with the centre of its party, the Chukka Umanna's of this world, as that cohort could bring home those needed extra seats. Not sure the Momentum types will do this - it's their way or no way. We are a moderate country, the electorate gets frightened of extremes. It's all still up for grabs and I wouldn't be at all surprised if it went either way.

I suspect younger voters are more and more getting politicised. Finally to have a sway in the outcome? I hope so, and I say that as an early 60s voter with no mortgage and a pension sorted.

May to stay as the lameduck option for at least another year.
Report PorcupineorPineapple January 9, 2018 10:07 AM GMT
Simply put, she's a stooge. Someone there to take all the heat and get us past the brexit deadline. No one else will take the job and the grandees at the back don't want to throw a promising up and comer on the brexit bonfire. She's being well compensated and will be well treated when she limps away. Only fly in the ointment is just how much she can stuff it up in the meantime.
Report Dr Crippen January 9, 2018 11:35 AM GMT
So I take it you think she's doing a good job then PP?
Report dave1357 January 9, 2018 5:39 PM GMT
When she called the election I didn't hear one voice saying she was making a mistake.

Playing a poker hand with Aces isn't a mistake but losing most of your chips with them probably is.
Report unitedbiscuits January 9, 2018 6:07 PM GMT
Heaven alone knows what the world thinks about the shambolic administration.
The Toby Young affair!!!
I thought the pantomime was at The Palladium.Laugh
Report Dr Crippen January 10, 2018 10:28 AM GMT
Ah Ub's back, I thought he'd taken the hump over something.
Report Meadow X1 January 10, 2018 2:35 PM GMT
Are you back again Crippen? After having your arz reamed up thread and shown to be clueless about political betting, I thought you would be hiding behind the couch with your knitting patterns. Away you go, ya wee sweetie wife.
Report Dr Crippen January 11, 2018 10:04 AM GMT
Looks like MeadowX1's taken the hump over something now.
Report Dr Crippen January 12, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
It was far from a "forgone conclusion".

Your early posts on the link you supplied suggest otherwise.

I think this is crucial in deciding the number of Conservative seats. If there is a massive UKIP switch to Conservative their seat gains could go crazy.

And again:

When I first looked at this closely yesterday I was initially hoping I could make a case to lay this. However, with new opinion polls arriving and the UKIP voting intention going down a Conservative majority is looking more certain. 1.18 may look a big price in a few days but of course things can change.

Anything less than a big Tory wasn't even being considered. And you certainly weren't proposing anything other than a large Tory victory in the early days.

It was much closer to polling day before you started to doubt that a huge Tory victory wasn't likely.
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 6:50 PM GMT
Feel free to quote all my bets starting from the original post right down to the day before the election plus their outcomes.
Report anxious January 12, 2018 6:56 PM GMT
Keep going meadow the tory fanboys dont like it when they are wrong
Report Dr Crippen January 12, 2018 7:04 PM GMT
Crikey MeadowX1 can't you read?
Report Dr Crippen January 12, 2018 7:06 PM GMT
Obviously not.

anxious can read, he just has trouble understanding joined up words.
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 7:27 PM GMT
Meadow X1 • June 6, 2017 8:03 PM BST
Ochil and South Perthshire for the Conservatives is good value at 4/1.

There you go for starters, it's easy isn't it. Why don't you post all your bets and all mine and let forum readers compare the outcomes. That's fair isn't it.
Report Dr Crippen January 12, 2018 7:31 PM GMT
While you're making your own up, why don't you make some up for me as well?
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 7:37 PM GMT
http://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/30859871/general-election-betting

Here is the link, feel free to verify it's there.

Now let's see some of your bets.
Report mumpin January 12, 2018 8:25 PM GMT
Dear old Meadow X1.
Can I remind you of your hilariously inaccurate General Election Scottish Summary?

Joined:
07 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 2,174 | Blogger: Meadow X1's blog
If it's helpful for anyone betting on the total SNP seat markets I have it as ...

34 certain hold
6 almost certain hold
16 close calls
3 probably lost

I have to say you're in an impossible position: trying to reconcile your role of oh-so-reasonable-cybernat with gambling guru.
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
Not sure where you get this cybernat stuff from, I am not even on any form of social media. The Ochil bet posted above was for the Conservatives to win from the SNP. Below is my General Election SNP bet.

Meadow X1 • June 6, 2017 10:17 PM BST
Jun 6, 2017 -- 10:00PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Meadow are you laying the Tories? You seem very bullish that these polls are sound.I guess you have seen this:http://www.constituencyexplorer.org.uk/explore/cross_sectionSome interesting data in it.


I have many bets in many fields.  Basically...

Seats- LibDems under 34.5, under 18.5 and under 10. SNP under 54.5. Labour over 168.5. Tories under 375.5.
Percent- Labour anywhere in 30s. UKIP under 5%. LibDems under 10%.
Turnout- Above 63.5%.
Constituencies- Far too numerous to list but Labour picking up Ynys Mon, Bermondsey, Hartlepool, Cardiff Central, Nottingham South would be good.

I have about £5.5K on.

I use a variety of sites for looking at constituencies as it's best not to follow one form of methodology.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 8:48 PM GMT
Just as a matter of interest Meadow, as A Scotsman, did you ever get involved with the last two general elections re:Aberdeen South?
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 8:52 PM GMT
You mean the general elections of 2015 and 2017?
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 9:07 PM GMT
Yes. That's where I reside. Three different MP's in the last three and a half years.(approx:) I never took much notice of the betting because I thought every result was nailed on although you may correct me.
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 9:10 PM GMT
"Three different MP's in the last three and a half years.(approx:)"

Are you getting confused with the Holyrood election?  The Westminster constituency is not the same as the Holyrood one, it has different boundaries.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 9:17 PM GMT
I don't think there is any confusion? Anne Begg, Callum McCaig and Ross Chapman.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 9:19 PM GMT
*Labour, SNP and then Tory in such a short space. Has this ever happened before?
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 9:45 PM GMT
Anne Begg held the seat at the 2010 General election for Labour losing to Callum McCaig for the SNP in 2015 who subsequently lost to the Conservative Ross Thomson in 2017.
The four party system in Scotland means changes like this are more likely than elsewhere in the UK. The constituency of Dumfries and Galloway has the same pattern as the Aberdeen seat.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 9:51 PM GMT
Yes, I know that and if I remember correctly things have become more confused re: the boundaries for MSP's. That aside, did you get involved in the betting in Aberdeen South in the last two General elections?
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
Yes, I had a very small bet on Labour at 100/1 in 2017.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 10:33 PM GMT
That's fair enough. I just wanted to find out if the betting in the last two General elections was reflected in the prices available. (Aberdeen South)
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 10:35 PM GMT
In Aberdeen South in 2017 SNP opened up at 1/5 before quickly moving to 1/3 then 2/5 then 4/6.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 10:40 PM GMT
Really? Going by those facts any Tory backer could have got 5/1 to win the seat. Strange given that Ruth was on the rampage!
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 10:43 PM GMT
Some folks did well backing both Labour and Conservative in seats against the SNP. In the constituency of Gordon (Alex Salmond) conservatives opened 33/1. In some of the seats Labour won they opened 20/1.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 10:44 PM GMT
* Yes, I do know she is not a MP but she played a helluva big part in the Tories revival in Scotland.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 10:56 PM GMT
Meadow, here is a hypothetical question for you. If there was a snap General election tomorrow what would you  price up the party to have most seats? I would go 1/3 Tories, 3/1 Labour. What would your prices be?
Report Meadow X1 January 12, 2018 10:58 PM GMT
Evens for both parties, take your pick.
Report stewarty b January 12, 2018 11:00 PM GMT
Really? Very interesting.
Report Dr Crippen April 7, 2018 11:05 AM BST
Following almost everyone being wrong about May's length of stay as PM. I wonder what the calculated odds would be on May leading the Tories into the next GE?
Report Dr Crippen June 7, 2018 10:57 AM BST
And the saga continues.

One of these days they'll get it right and she will go. After all if you predict most things of this nature you'll be right eventually.
Report Dr Crippen September 21, 2018 1:15 PM BST
Tough as old boots.

And above all, still there.
Report DIE LINKE September 21, 2018 1:22 PM BST
If you don't know why she is still PM, you really are Dr Cretin.
Report Dr Crippen September 21, 2018 1:41 PM BST
Thank you Mr DRY LINKE of shrite.
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