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stewarty b
26 Dec 17 18:03
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Date Joined: 02 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 17,041 | Blogger: stewarty b's blog
First few in the betting hardly inspiring and although little liquidity I will be having a punt on Jo Johnson when the contest gets under way. You may laugh now but how improbable was Corbyn to get his spot?
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Report stewarty b December 26, 2017 7:25 PM GMT
I just had a look at the betting again and to my surprise Ruth Davidson is third Fav! Christ, can you imagine her at PM'S questions for an hour? Corbyn would wave the white flag after 10 minutes.
Report stewarty b December 26, 2017 7:26 PM GMT
** If she allowed him a question.Laugh
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 9:59 AM GMT
I backed Corbyn. Ruth Davidson is not an MP. You clearly are out of your depth at political betting, have you considered taking up ludo?
Report Foinavon December 27, 2017 11:32 AM GMT
You backed Corbyn to be next Tory leader? Shocked
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 11:36 AM GMT
Try reading the original post.
Report Foinavon December 27, 2017 12:00 PM GMT
Oh I see, you have no sense of humour. Never mind.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 12:12 PM GMT
I have (and I can read better than you too).
Report Foinavon December 27, 2017 12:23 PM GMT
That's reassuring, thanks.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 12:49 PM GMT
Happy to call it a draw.

I was trying to make the point to the original poster that he is allowing his political leanings to influence his betting. His opinion of Corbyn suggests that his victory in the leadership election was "improbable". Was it really though? He was available at prices up to 100/1 against three other candidates, none of whom could be considered outstanding or clear favourite. The voting system favoured Corbyn. Others with a similar view as the original poster openly joined the party, paying their small renumeration simply to vote for Corbyn as they considered it would help the Conservative party. Was 100/1 value?

Now look at Ruth Davidson. The original poster enthuses that she is third favourite to become tory leader and would give Corbyn hell.  Ruth is not an MP. To become one she would need to resign her post as Conservative leader at Holyrood, fight and win a Westminster by election, stand and win as a candidate for election as leader if/when the day comes. She is priced at 10/1 by some bookmakers. Is that value?
Report Foinavon December 27, 2017 1:01 PM GMT
I recall at the time someone pointed out on here that Corbyn was tremendous value and the £2 membership fee to have voting rights was going to be a big influence. You did well to grab some while it was going, I didn't unfortunately but then I hardly ever bet on politics.
Ruth Davidson hardly figures on here for the reasons you mention. Tories hardly ever elect the market leader and I expect an outsider to follow May, too, someone like Raab maybe. It depends a lot on how long May hangs on.
She is likely to see out the Brexit deadline but will need to give a new leader a couple of years at least before 2022 otherwise she hangs on until the election if she can. My guess is she steps down in 2019.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 1:09 PM GMT
Funnily enough, like you, I feel the next Tory leader may be someone who at the moment is somewhat off the radar for now. David Cameron is a good example of the type of candidate who can appear from nowhere, without any apparent baggage and can talk with confidence to his electorate. No idea what price he was but I am certain he might not have even been quoted a couple of years before he was elected.
Report Foinavon December 27, 2017 1:20 PM GMT
The Tories need to look to the next generation to bolster their chances next time. Having held a responsible position (or two) a big asset.
Report markzzz December 27, 2017 2:18 PM GMT
Meadow, you are wrong.

Whilst there are lots of technical problems, someone who is not an MP CAN become leader of the Tories (and PM if the Tories are in power). They can't enter the commons even when PM, but can still be PM.

It would work like this. Ruth Davidson enters a Tory leadership election and wins. She is therefore PM and leader of the Tories. Then, somebody resigns from a safe seat, she resigns from being a Scottish MP, wins the seat and that is it.

I repeat, unlikely, and problematic, but it is possible, and legal.
Report richgit December 27, 2017 3:04 PM GMT
I reckon to garner some many young folk votes, they need to get away from plummy voiced ex-lawyer types.
I am not politically aligned,(although I'm of an age,and wealthy)... but these smooth fork tongued toffs , just turn me right off.
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 3:13 PM GMT
Ridiculous to imagine that Ruth Davidson could be PM of the UK
Too short
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 4:11 PM GMT
lfc exceeding the limit of even his miniscule intelligence.
Report Foinavon December 27, 2017 4:18 PM GMT
I think she would make a good party leader, has experience and ticks a couple of "progressive" boxes too.
The obstacles are serious but not insurmountable. Perhaps Ken Clarke's nice safe seat will be up for grabs in the not too distant future, speculative I know.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 4:23 PM GMT
She would be a good leader but I think that after various debacles involving the current leader, particularly calling a general election, a male candidate is much more likely.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 5:30 PM GMT
markzzz 27 Dec 17 14:18 Joined: 03 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 306 | Blogger: markzzz's blog
Meadow, you are wrong



And not for the first time. Maybe Cluedo is his game?.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 5:39 PM GMT
Feel free to check back on my political bets, posted in advance on this forum with analysis. General election, by elections, US president, Brexit, UK leadership elections...it's all there.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 5:45 PM GMT
As long as you know the rules I'm sure you will do fine.
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 6:02 PM GMT
If you had looked at who was the candidate in the US election you would have done well there
Perhaps meadows used other less scientific methods , I don't know
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 6:03 PM GMT
* if you had looked at who was the tallest candidate
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 6:12 PM GMT
She would be a good leader but I think that after various debacles involving the current leader, particularly calling a general election, a male candidate is much more likely.



A  bit sexist but that's fine by me. I love these type of layers who spout sh1t without knowing the market. Just one look at the BF market would tell you the next leader has a 7/4 (approx.) chance of being female.

But why should I educate imbeciles?
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 6:21 PM GMT
every American president has been taller than 5 ' as far as I know
Lincoln was 6' 6" a virtual giant in those times
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 6:25 PM GMT
A women candidate can get away it to some extent
If Trump had been allowed to wear high heels he would have won an even greater victory
So women are fine if they are tall like pm May , or even appear tall
I don't think this is possible with Ruth Davidson
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 6:27 PM GMT
I can assure you people will not vote for a short PM of the United Kingdom
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 6:31 PM GMT
Amber Rudd and Andrea Leadsom are hardly short.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 6:48 PM GMT
Height wise that is.
Report pogle December 27, 2017 7:12 PM GMT
I reckon Ruth Davidson is excellent value at 14.0 to be the next leader.

In a poll of Tory members during  conference week she came a clear second to Boris Johnson who has done little to advance his claims in the interim.
She will stay in her current position until 2021 so an early election will obviously rule her out but with even Rees Mogg acknowledging that an early change of leader would bring down the government so surely the odds of the next election being in 2022 are also too high.
  By 2022  Brexit will be a less divisive issue and many Tories will  be keen to elect the one person Corbyn will not want to face.
Report pogle December 27, 2017 7:12 PM GMT
I reckon Ruth Davidson is excellent value at 14.0 to be the next leader.

In a poll of Tory members during  conference week she came a clear second to Boris Johnson who has done little to advance his claims in the interim.
She will stay in her current position until 2021 so an early election will obviously rule her out but with even Rees Mogg acknowledging that an early change of leader would bring down the government so surely the odds of the next election being in 2022 are also too high.
  By 2022  Brexit will be a less divisive issue and many Tories will  be keen to elect the one person Corbyn will not want to face.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 7:19 PM GMT

Dec 27, 2017 -- 6:12PM, stewarty b wrote:


She would be a good leader but I think that after various debacles involving the current leader, particularly calling a general election, a male candidate is much more likely.A  bit sexist but that's fine by me. I love these type of layers who spout sh1t without knowing the market. Just one look at the BF market would tell you the next leader has a 7/4 (approx.) chance of being female.But why should I educate imbeciles?


You have simply proved with this post you are an imbecile.

Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
It's you who is the imbecile and I can prove it. (nap)
Report jollyswagman December 27, 2017 7:35 PM GMT
meadow has a long history of well written and researched posts on various political betting events. in fact i would say that he is just about the only person worth listening to on the whole politics forum when it comes to political betting.

you are rather proving his point that a male leader is much more likely with your odds of approx 7/4 for a female stewarty.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 7:37 PM GMT
Try reading the general election thread I have just brought to the top. Learn what political analysis and betting mean. Then go back to your usual rubbish guessing.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 7:37 PM GMT
Thanks jolly.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 7:41 PM GMT
you are rather proving his point that a male leader is much more likely with your odds of approx 7/4 for a female stewarty.



You think? What price is this man willing to give me that the next Tory leader is female? No market there at the moment but I can easily arrange that. What price will he offer me?
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 7:45 PM GMT
ollyswagman
Date Joined:    04 Jul 15
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27 Dec 17 19:35 Joined: 04 Jul 15 | Topic/replies: 5,507 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
meadow has a long history of well written and researched posts on various political betting events





I backed Corbyn. Ruth Davidson is not an MP.


Not even Einstein could have worked that one out...
Report jollyswagman December 27, 2017 7:53 PM GMT
stewarty you seem to be extremely agitated.

meadow said he thought a male leader was much more likely than a female leader. you refute this by claiming that a female leader is a 7/4 chance (i am taking your numbers as correct). in a 100% market that would make a male leader approx 4/7 wouldnt it? these numbers equate to about a 64% chance of a male leader and a 36% chance of a female leader. this means that a male leader is much more likely than a female one which is exactly what meadow said.

you can use whichever betfair market you are referring to with your 7/4 to place a bet if you so desire.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 7:58 PM GMT
stewarty you seem to be extremely agitated.



Not at all jolly. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. 7/4 is a skinny price that I would not get involved in if I'm honest but if he offers me a decent price my money will be there tomorrow waiting to be picked off.

That aside, this thread is about Jo Johnson at big odds which I fancy.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 8:04 PM GMT
You need to look at the facts jolly. Can you defend this, or is your worship for this man beyond comprehension?


Ruth Davidson is not an MP.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 8:07 PM GMT
Stewarty,

If you are unable to fathom out what is the shorter price (and therefore more likely to happen) between 7/4 or 4/7, you should not be betting on anything.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 8:13 PM GMT
Meadow, I've been at this game longer than you. I mentioned 7/4 given the candidates on offer and just how strong I rate the next leader to be female. You give me a price now and if I think it's fair I will oblige you with a lay of my hard earned.


In other words, back it up with hard cash and stop telling me Ruth Davidson is not a MP.
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 8:16 PM GMT
Ruth Davidson is not an MP.
Report jollyswagman December 27, 2017 8:18 PM GMT
stewarty, putting aside money long term really not my thing at all either.

i just think the numbers you put up support what he was saying.

and regardless of what happens in this particular market meadow does have a long history of good calls in political betting, it isnt worship its a statement of fact. sadly the politics forum is mostly hot air / pointless arguments so when one poster actually makes such calls i read their posts with interest.

good luck with your bets.
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:26 PM GMT
Stewarty was talking about Ruth Davidsons chances
Whether or not a male pm is more likely is neither here nor there
It is possible for there to be a greater chance of a male pm than female and at the same time Ruth Davidson being the favourite in a field of male MPs
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 8:28 PM GMT

and regardless of what happens in this particular market meadow does have a long history of good calls in political betting,




I can't dispute that jolly as I have never seen any of his pre-posted bets. That said, how much money have you made following his selections?
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:29 PM GMT
Why ? Because we don't know who the male mp candidates are yet
We don't know who they are , or how many they are
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:31 PM GMT
You see when you have only one name Ruth Davidson , who happens to be female it is pointless to say that it is more likely to be a male pm without knowing the other names of these male MPs

That's what meadows and jolly don't seem to understand about stewartys point
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 8:34 PM GMT
sadly the politics forum is mostly hot air / pointless arguments so when one poster actually makes such calls i read their posts with interest.



I can back you up there jolly. I used to post on here regularly when I first joined. Many disputes but most friendly. Although I swing to the right my favourite forumite was golfjudge. A very liberal bloke but never a nasty word.
Report jollyswagman December 27, 2017 8:39 PM GMT
i havent followed any of his selections stewarty, or anyone elses for that matter. i do, however, read his posts with interest for the reasons already given. he has pulled up a thread for you, read it if you want to see if his judgement is sound or not.

happy christmas lfc, i see you are still offering your 'pearls of wisdom' and not many people realise what you are about Laugh. you are a master of your trade you rascal.
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:41 PM GMT
You see you can have hypothetical odds that it is more likely for the British pm to be male than female
That's merely based on gender , not names
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:44 PM GMT
:  ) thanks  jollyswagman , happy Christmas and new year to you also , haven't heard much from you recently thought you had gone away and we had lost you
everyone goes away in the end
Report jollyswagman December 27, 2017 8:48 PM GMT
bored of it all, as i said earlier most of it is pointless.

i think some of yours and edy's interactions are quite fun. let's just say he seems to enjoy your approach and we'll leave it at that.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 8:51 PM GMT
i havent followed any of his selections stewarty, or anyone elses for that matter. i do, however, read his posts with interest for the reasons already given. he has pulled up a thread for you, read it if you want to see if his judgement is sound or not.



You cannot be serious jolly? No way I'm spending a couple of hours going through a thread.

lfc1971, do you remember when I blew everyone out of the water on the golf forum when I offered Jack Nicklaus at 1/400? The mugs were queuing up to get thousands to one on Woods.

I'm no Churchill but that was my finest hour. I took hell for that thread but as Churchill said...."when you are going through hell, keep going"
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:54 PM GMT
I like to pretend to annoy him swagman , and I think sometimes he pretends to be annoyed ,
It can be pretty senseless but sometimes it makes me smile , and you too , that's good !
Who could deny that : )
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 8:58 PM GMT
yes stewarty , bring that back to the top of the golf forum also !
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 9:04 PM GMT
I was ridiculed lfc1971 but I had the last laugh and those who ridiculed me turned into sheep. I would say rams but there were no testicles involved!
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 9:06 PM GMT
I might do tomorrow lfc just to wind them up.
Report stewarty b December 27, 2017 9:15 PM GMT
I did look for it lfc but came across this first. Not my finest hour even though many told me to trade out at 1.9. Cry


stewarty b 14 Jul 16 23:20 Joined: 02 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 14,831 | Blogger: stewarty b's blog
He birdied almost half the holes today. He's no bottle merchant like I said earlier, anyways, win or bust here...


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Report InsiderTrader December 29, 2017 9:38 AM GMT
Ruth Davidson or Amber Rudd would be a terrible choice for Tory leader.

Having made the mistake of electing a female remainer once surely the Tory membership would not do it again!

Over 65% of Tory voters support leaving the EU. Around 80% of Tory consistencies support leaving the EU.

At least May was sly during the EU vote staying out of the debates.

Both Rudd and Davidson are both diehard gloabalists wanting to cede more power to Brussels.

They are by definition out of touch losers.

Rudd is particularly dangerous wanting complete control over what everyone does online.
Report Meadow X1 December 29, 2017 10:16 AM GMT
Rudd has a majority of just over 300 and is likely to lose her seat at the next election.
Report InsiderTrader December 29, 2017 12:15 PM GMT
If the Marxists takeover next election it will be irrelevant because it will likely be the last election we can use Betfair.

Betting on them to win the election is like betting on the end of the world.

We have never had a Marxist government in the UK. The closest was in the 1970s but that was tame by comparison.

People have no idea what is coming.
Report pogle December 29, 2017 6:41 PM GMT
IT - your latest comment is of course absolutely right but that is why the rationale behind your earlier comment is totally wrong.

      Corbyn and his followers pose such a threat that the Tories must abandon internal tribalism and endeavour to select the one leader the Labour Party will be sick to see going head to head  in the election debates - namely Ruth Davidson. I’m no remainder but but when the country is facing its greatest peacetime threat you need the one proven WINNER heading up the team. Hopefully May can hang on until 2022, deliver Brexit without any possibility of a second referendum and Davidson can lead the Tories to election victory. She would be then able to play the ‘good cop’ role with the EU - “ the die is cast and we are out of the EU but I am a europhile so can you please be nice to us in the UK”.
Report Meadow X1 December 29, 2017 7:32 PM GMT
I can think of quite a few reasons why Ruth won't be the next leader..

1/ As previously mentioned, her route to leadership is very long winded and lengthy.

2/ She is happy as leader of the Scottish Conservatives at Holyrood.

3/ She has a settled, committed personal life in Edinburgh.

4/ If she were to leave , the Tories would probably lose any seats they have recently gained north of the border as she is effectively a one man band.

5/ Would traditional Conservative members be happy voting for an openly gay strong remainer leading their party?
Report InsiderTrader December 29, 2017 7:35 PM GMT
Davidson is a LOSER.

She debated the referendum on the side of the shouting pointing Mayor of London.

She cannot be trusted on Brexit or on reducing the £50bn cost per year to the country of the breakdown of family values in the UK.

We need someone who believes in Brexit and believes in the family.

Without those two things UK society is destined to fail.
Report pogle December 29, 2017 8:01 PM GMT
Brexit will already have occurred by 2022 and should no longer be a ‘live ‘ issue. I know of nothing to suggest RD does not believe in the concept of family.
There are certainly a number of obstacles to overcome but I am convinced she would be Corbyn’s hardest opponent. Many from the centre and right of politics will be urging her to grasp her chance.
Report Meadow X1 December 29, 2017 8:16 PM GMT
Don't be convinced she is some sort of debate champion. She isn't in the same league as the current Scottish First Minister.
Report lfc1971 December 29, 2017 8:26 PM GMT
We don't want someone Scottish as leader of the Conservative party and potential PM
You've got your own Parliament stay out of England , thanks
Report Meadow X1 December 29, 2017 8:32 PM GMT
Errm, it's the UK parliament at Westminster we are discussing.
Report lfc1971 December 29, 2017 8:34 PM GMT
That's right and it is in England last time I looked
Report lfc1971 December 29, 2017 8:36 PM GMT
Now we don't want someone from N Ireland as leader of the Tory party and potential PM either
Or even Wales
Report Meadow X1 December 29, 2017 8:37 PM GMT
The building certainly is (but not all the occupants).
Report lfc1971 December 29, 2017 8:37 PM GMT
Now you have your own regional parliaments , stay there
Report lfc1971 December 29, 2017 8:40 PM GMT
At least Sinn Fein for all their many terrible faults don't come to London , and certainly don't expect to be prime minister
Report pogle December 29, 2017 8:42 PM GMT
It is often said that General Elections are won by capturing the moderate middle ground voter..........perhaps this isn’t the best place to evaluate RDs appeal.
Report lfc1971 December 29, 2017 8:43 PM GMT
I don't know why ?
Report thegiggilo December 29, 2017 10:58 PM GMT
English are far too narrow minded to vote for a Scottish lesbian..
Report thegiggilo December 29, 2017 10:58 PM GMT
English are far too narrow minded to vote for a Scottish lesbian..
Report thegiggilo December 29, 2017 10:58 PM GMT
English are far too narrow minded to vote for a Scottish lesbian..
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 9:24 AM GMT
^ tut tut, how can we be expected to have a Scottish PM when there are people with that sort of bigoted viewpoint ?
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 9:42 AM GMT
the mods might take a look at that sort of comment by the gigillo , not sure that sort of thing is allowed in today's pc society
Report Meadow X1 December 31, 2017 10:10 AM GMT
Nothing wrong with his post, he is spot on.
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 10:24 AM GMT
I hope so
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 10:26 AM GMT
And if the English are so narrow minded as to never vote for a Scottish pm ever again
That's better again
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 10:30 AM GMT
If she tries to come to England to get a safe Tory seat , don't allow that either
She's not English
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 10:38 AM GMT
If she campaigns to do away with the waste of money that is the Scottish parliament I might change my mind ,
not before
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 10:55 AM GMT
The fundamental problem is this . Scotland cannot continue to vote for the SNP, to put the SNP in power in Scotland and yet vote in a referendum to be part of the UK
That is a position that is unsustainable because parties like the snp are so divisive that they can make the safe and good running of the UK impossible
The Scottish people are going to have to make up their mind
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 11:03 AM GMT
That is why it is wrong for there to be a Scottish parliament .
That should never have been allowed , a Scottish parliament should have only come about after a vote for independence
A parliament within the U.K. which is fundamentally and ideologically opposed to the UK is madness
Report Meadow X1 December 31, 2017 2:03 PM GMT
As giggilo was saying...
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 2:52 PM GMT
That's good , because when someone like yourself from Scotland starts to lecture England something within me starts to laugh and jeer ,
and then of course respect is out of the question
Report lfc1971 December 31, 2017 2:54 PM GMT
Maybe I shouldn't do that
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