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Wallflower
19 Dec 17 06:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 5,930 | Blogger: Wallflower's blog
..eventually sink in. Its no deal or ultra soft Brexit. No cake and eat it.

2017

UK : Settlement Bill?  Go whistle......
EU : That will be 50 billion euro please
Result  :  50 billion at least to be paid (and in euro please), thanks, you are so kind. Have that in writing too.

EU  : No hard border in Ireland and no divergence with ROI
UK  : Yeah fine  (but cant guarantee)
Result : Oh really, We'll have that written into law and be quick about it
UK   : You got it

EU :  While you're at you can put the guarantee of Citizen's rights into law too. Thanks awfully - you know what, that Theresa May and your team are really tough negotiators, really tough.

Dec 2017:

UK: We'll have an "implementation" phase for 2 years, where we will continue to follow EU rules only where suitable. We'll negotiate a free trade agreement like Canada, and include services, after all its 80% of our GDP.

EU : You will follow all EU rules during "transition", that's if we even approve a transition phase. We are not doing any trade deals until after March 2019. ...Oh yeah, by the way, that won't include financial services.

Now - based on what's happened so far - what do you think is going to happen?

For me its no dealHappy - we have to walk away to save face. Politically not a runner to have a second referendum even though it seems clear most people now wish to remain.

End result - out of EU (against the public view come 2018/9), nightmare for service industries, NI economically aligned to Republic of Ireland (by law). And hopefully, Scots seriously (and understandably) p1ssed off, and freedom drive gains momentum.

Well, that's what I want to happen, some wishful thinking too perhaps - but it is a very possible scenario indeed.
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Report lfc1971 December 19, 2017 8:43 AM GMT
If that means Britain is out of the single market , the customs union and most importantly stops freedom of movement as per the views and wishes of the majority that will be a very good result . Also N. Ireland will not be 'economically aligned ' to the ROI in any way that differs from its present circumstance if it means it diverges econonomically or politically from the UK, they aren't daft .
So I think that is all good , so far . They are merely the fundamentals of leaving .
Report lfc1971 December 19, 2017 8:58 AM GMT
How would this outcome effect Scots nationalist or a drive for independence,  it is difficult to know if it will have any impact
The same people who are anti British will remain so whatever the outcome .
Their views never change and never will regardless
That is possibly true of those wishing to stay part of the UK also
Whichever the outcome people are likely to alliow time, perhaps decades to see how things are in reality post Brexit
Report lfc1971 December 19, 2017 9:27 AM GMT
Could a proper Brexit strengthen the union ?
Well look at it this way . If freedom of movement stops what will this mean for people in Scotland and Ireland , north and south .
They will retain the right to live and work in England and anywhere else in the U.K.
Indeed in Ireland north and south they will retain those rights , and also the rights to live and work in Europe
it enhances the job opportunities of everyone , all in all a very good outcome
And that is why they should give post Brexit time before anything else
Report Wallflower December 19, 2017 3:45 PM GMT
Agree -  some people in Scotland will vote nationalist regardless, and unionist regardless of anything.

Though two of my close family members who voted "no" are rightly p1ssed off now because of the "project fear" ( Scottish version as opposed to the Brexit version) weapons of losing EU membership and that there would then be a hard border with England as a result swayed both of them.

Turns out the English are leaving the EU, then they hear with regards to Ireland - "there is no need for a hard border!". Both of them are seething - one has now seen the light as a resultHappy (in fact, she's gone completely over the top, none as zealous as the convert as they say). The other says on balance he'd still vote against independenceShocked (tosspot !!!, hard to fathom because he's great bloke generally speaking).
Report Wallflower December 19, 2017 3:50 PM GMT
However, as I said before -  no Brexit or soft Brexit (we remain in SM and CU) then Scottish Independence is dead in the water for the foreseeable.

Hard Brexit, particularly if NI stays in EU (which it will) - then I really believe its game on again.

Its 50-50 at the moment, a "good deal" is out of the question. My hope is through continued incompetence and Tory divisions we arrive at hard Brexit. I accept it may result in tough times for some people but the price to be paid for a better future imo.
Report Wallflower December 19, 2017 4:10 PM GMT
Cabinet agrees to demand bespoke deal after first proper discussion on Brexit outcome - Politics live



Oh dear, oh dear !!  They just won't listen, or maybe they don't (or want to) understand. I'm wrong, even after Phase 1 it isn't sinking in. Ah well, maybe by next year.


We have 3.5% of the world's GDP; EU have 20 odd %  - and mind you 75-80% of that 3.5% is services most of which is dependent on EUPlain.

We're "demanding"LaughLaugh. Poor Barnier, he must feel like banging his head against a wall, or preferably our half-wits in the cabinet.
Report 1st time poster December 19, 2017 4:31 PM GMT
treason mays red lines, cabinet room reminds me of an advert I saw once

French world war rifle for sale,unused,dropped once
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