Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
dom888
12 Dec 17 16:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 25 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 1,322 | Blogger: dom888's blog
This is a republican southern state.
How on earth was this 1.5.
I know there is a very conservative clown this time.
But they love these clowns over there.
it was 62 % trump 34 % clinton
Never ever this is gonna change.
Democrats be lucky to get much more than 40 %.
Share |
Show More
Loading...
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 4:52 PM GMT
watergate doesn't bother me
Report trilby22 December 12, 2017 5:55 PM GMT
Well, I hope Neil Young will remember.
Report 1st time poster December 12, 2017 6:59 PM GMT
anything possibly  anti trump and sky,beeb will go anywhere to report the right to be offended,meanwhile the pm,s no 2 Damien green keeps his job.mp.s commit suicide,etc,etc,but the media call americans headbangers for voting in people involved in scandals
Report tanglefoot December 12, 2017 7:28 PM GMT
Should send uncle Bill down there to Alabama with his exemplary democratic morals
Report Wallflower December 12, 2017 7:37 PM GMT
....had a little nibble on it, seems like easy enough profit. Given current political polarisation and history, pretty sure the dirty ole' pervert will win this. Hope he does now, money talksLaugh. ( I tend not to examine my own morals too deeplyCool)
Report MartinK December 12, 2017 8:34 PM GMT
This will I believe be a lot closer than one would expect from a deep red state. The polls are all over the place depending on methodology and turnout models. Yesterday one Poll gave Moore ® a 9 point lead (Emmerson college), while another gave Jones (D) a 10 point lead (Fox). Nate Silver of 538 gave a good summary here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/

Jones needs to get the African American vote out, while Moore need his Evangelical Christian to come out in force since he can't rely on the more moderate college educated Republican to vote for him (many might “write in” a alternative GOP name).

I made this a 1/3 - 3/1 matchup so had some 5/1 earlier in the week, and it's now settled at my initial assessment. Anacdotal evidence indicates that turnout could be higher than the expected 20-25% which should help Jones and I just read the following at - https://www.lifezette.com/polizette/anecdotal-evidence-points-to-heavy-alabama-turnout/


Early polling place reports suggest turnout might exceed the 20 percent to 25 prediction of Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill for the contest that pits Republican Roy Moore against Democrat Doug Jones.


“We’re doing better than that in Baldwin,” Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell, the top elections official in the county outside Mobile, told LifeZette. “I think we’re going to hit 35 or 40 [percent] … We’ve had good turnout in every precinct. I’ve been some big ones. I’ve been to some small ones.”

That would double the turnout for the primary in August.

Russell thinks Jones might take 45 percent of the vote in the county, which would be a stunning result for a Democrat in that GOP stronghold.

“I’ve never seen in my home county a race that had so much emotion on both sides,” he said.

......
Brent Buchanan, an Alabama Republican political consultant, said the odds of a Jones victory improve if turnout exceeds 1.1 million. If it crosses the 1.2 million mark, then it gets bleaker for Moore, Buchanan said.

“I think that the race is a dead heat,” he said. “I didn’t think that was the case several weeks ago. But I think it’s tightened up.”


Could be an interesting night
Report bigpoppapump December 13, 2017 8:07 AM GMT
whoops
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 13, 2017 8:15 AM GMT
I think it was Farage sprinkling his election-losing stardust on it that finally swung it.
Report dom888 December 13, 2017 8:25 AM GMT
lol
I was a little bit wrong.
But good news is, chumpy got 1 disciple less.
Report thegiggilo December 13, 2017 10:14 AM GMT
Even the inbreds of Alabama wouldn't vote for himShocked 25 years since a senate thereShockedthe end is nigh already...Cool
Report 1st time poster December 13, 2017 10:40 AM GMT
amazing how this forum can stretch to the far reaches of the world to stop a train
Report par December 13, 2017 12:26 PM GMT
the old bok never fails
Report MartinK December 13, 2017 1:35 PM GMT
With all the uncertainty around the polls I thought the 5-1 was interesting.

Turnout was projected to be between 20-25% which the secretary of state  continued to insist would be the expected number well into the day, but from reports it was obvious it would be bigger - 40% is what it turned out to be.

This allowed Jones to pile up the number in the metropolitan areas and to squeeze out a small but historic Democratic win in a deeply red state. 

What I didn't realise at the time was that in October a young Democrat had fired up the grass roots to defeat an older establishment Democrat to become the Mayor of Birmingham in the heartland of the Democratic “black belt”. He had helped the Jones campaign to keep that momentum going in the black community and helped push up turnout.

All in all a perfect blue wave, which they'll do well to replicate in 2020.
Report edy December 13, 2017 5:57 PM GMT
Farage endorsed the candidate that strongly wants bible laws, i.e Christian sharia, to rule above all else?
Report Meadow X1 December 14, 2017 1:44 PM GMT
The best bit was when the 50-40 (10 undecided) poll came out in favour of Jones. Paddy Power went 2/1 Moore. So you had both candidates at good odds against prices, a licence to print money.
Report ffaith December 21, 2017 6:32 PM GMT
G
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com

New to Betfair?

You need to open an account before you can add content to the forum.

Opening an account only takes a few minutes.

register now