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12 Dec 17 10:43
Date Joined: 19 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 6,420 | Blogger: melv's blog
Brexit how dare you threaten to bequeath a poorer UK to your children your grand children and the people of this nation. After hearing the folowing I am now back in the "Drop the whole thing now" camp.

This is what the USA thinks of Brexit from the renowned American think tank. The Rand Corporation. Rand think that a no deal Brexit will leave the UK 4.9% worse off by 2029.

No matter what the outcome the UK will do worse than staying in the EU.

Brexit is ignoring the negative effects on international trade and ignoring the benefits of the EU with its friction free trade in goods and services and the same standards and conformity practices everywhere.

Most important is the very free open access for our largest and most important industry which is the powerhouse behind the British ecomomy; services.

Free trade deals are not free in the same sense that EU trade is free.

Even if we got a free trade deal with Europe ( open borders and easy movement of labour). free trade deals involving complex checks ensuring each trade falls within the deal.  All this adds costs.

Actually the USA are not too concerned about poor trade for the UK as far as their economy is concerned. Though it thinks TTIP for everyone. UK, Europe and USA would be the best thing that could happen.

((Good luck with that.  TTIP has failed once. Everyone who is against Runaway US dominated globalization hates it.))

The Rand corporation is most in favour of the EU is so that it can sit around a table with the whole of  Europe to work together politically and militarily.

So lets cancel the whole thing and spend the 40 billion and all the future extra payments we will have to make to Europe on the NHS, investment in infrastructure  and investment in training and educating the people of this country. And most of all lets invest in your children and grandchildren.
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Report InsiderTrader December 12, 2017 12:21 PM GMT

I really am surprised at you looking at a globalist military operation like this to get your advise.

'Project RAND
General Henry H. Arnold, commander of the United States Army Air Forces, established Project RAND with the objective of looking into long-range planning of future weapons.[8][17] In March 1946 Douglas Aircraft Company was granted a contract for research on intercontinental warfare, using operations research. In May 1946 the Preliminary Design of an Experimental World-Circling Spaceship was released. In May 1948, Project RAND separated from Douglas and became an independent non-profit organization as Douglas Aircraft feared it would create conflicts of interest jeopardizing future hardware contracts. Initial capital for the spin-off was provided by the Ford Foundation.'

Just a quick Google search shows the links to the military-industrial complex.
Report Foinavon December 12, 2017 1:44 PM GMT
The so-called experts already have egg on their collective faces from their predictions of doom following a Brexit vote. They do not know and cannot see into the future any more than meteorologists can predict the weather more than a few days at a time.
If we cancel Brexit we and your grandchildren will be paying a lot more than the 40 billion exit bill, we can be sure of that.
Report asparagus December 12, 2017 1:46 PM GMT
Anyone with half a brain who hasn't got a vested interest knows that we will be a lot worse off economically when we leave the EU. Some think it's worth it because of other issues.  Others prefer to bury their heads in the sand in a desperation to 'bring back control'. Some are just plain stupid.
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 2:04 PM GMT
Were the predictions before the vote correct?

It is argued that the predictions of doom and gloom were wrong in that there were not major problems after the vote but I think most were based on the assumption that we would trigger the article to leave soon after the result, which was not the case. However, look now, the pound has lost value causing a certain amount of inflation. Company investment has declined, or been put on hold by many companies. So problems are building up.

Some arguments by those in favour of BREXIT are proving wrong. Where is the free trade deal they argued would happen as we import more form the EEC than we export to them, and they need to retain that? What about more money being available for the NHS? Many seemed to believe that.
Report bigpoppapump December 12, 2017 2:15 PM GMT
there's ongoing (deliberate) misinformation about what can and what cannot be predicted.  Successfully conflate the two and you can get your votes..

It is not an economic forecast (in the way, say, you forecast inflation) to state there will be serious economic ramifications if we exit the EU with no trade deal (with the EU), or indeed the rest of the world (as we would lack anything at the specific point of exit).  We need trade deals and we WILL be poorer without them.  Answering this with tosh about economists is not an answer. 

Claiming that the above has been disproved by events since the referendum result is garbage.  Why do we need to pay all this money to the EU to leave?  Because we need to get them to the table to avert the mutual disaster of no longer working with them economically.  Economists may say this is true but them having been wrong about other things in the past is not proof that they are wrong about this.  It's a logical fallacy.

So - my advice - forget the economists - nobody is using what economists say as their evidence (for us needing to remember we are still going to be part of a global economic system, post EU membership).  Just use your own brain.  How does the country make money?  What's our economy based on?  Are we some mercantile powerhouse producing goods for sale to the rest of the world?  Do we produce our own food? Fuel? Clothing? 
Look around you.  Where does the money come from?  Think if isolation comes post Brexit will there be more or less money?  If you think more, say why.  But don't use: Economists say Brexit is bad so it must be good as your argument.  It's nonsense.
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 2:39 PM GMT
Anybody help me out? I seem to remember that pro-BREXIT MP John Redwood had written a newspaper column in which he was basically advising investors to invest overseas due to potential problems with the British economy. For wealthy people that may not be too difficult but most ordinary people will just have take whatever happens.

If he said that then why would many companies be making investments now in the UK while BREXIT is being sorted out? If some do not like what is agreed what would then be the longer term investments by some of those companies in the UK? Many will be multi-nationals who could divert some of their production abroad.

Anybody know more about what John Redwood wrote?
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2017 2:46 PM GMT
I think it was essentially that. The thing with all the experts writing this is that they're generally aimed at investors and corporations and usually they sit up and listen.

So it's ok for random people on a betting forum to try to pooh pooh a report by looking at how the company was formed or by pointing out that other predictions in the past have been wrong, but the point is that their opinion means diddly at the end of the day even if they really, really, really believe it.

As long as there remains a long queue of experts stating that Britain's future is decidedly less rosy than it might have been then the reduction in investment and companies choosing to look elsewhere will ensure that it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 3:09 PM GMT
What will some multi-national companies do longer term?

An example could be Ford who have an engine plant at Bridgend in Wales. I think that Jaguar intend to stop getting engines from there. Will Ford look to put other work into there or reduce their labour force?.

I think I was told that the Vauxhall Astra will need a serous update in the future. Will this company, now French owned, look to manufacture it here in the UK? I think the French company need to reduce their overall labour force among the various car companies they own so could this be here sometime after Brexit?
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2017 3:16 PM GMT
Yep, up this way I think Vauxhall have announced they're shedding a few hundred jobs in Ellesmere Port. Being part of Peugeot and Citroen they've obviously got plants all over the place and so can pick and choose where to build future models. If the falling pound makes here too expensive or they can't attract the right staff or they think they'll lose productivity by bumps in the supply chain then it doesn't take a genius to predict the outcome.
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 4:32 PM GMT
you have only to look at the mess the country is in now , that's why we have to leave the EU
Every year that Britain stays in is a year lost , look around , look around
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 4:34 PM GMT
The pound is a very old currency and has stood the test of time
And will do so again once we are free from the EU
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 4:38 PM GMT
You have to face the reality of modern life , Britain is no longer creative enough to allow free movement of millions of people into the U.K.
If it does not stop  then things will continue as they have done for the last decades , we will all become poorer
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 4:39 PM GMT
We don't need to see anything more, we already see too much
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 4:45 PM GMT
Now project RAND are an American organisation . When they advise the US to join the EU , then we might listen
Until then I think they can be safely ignored
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 12, 2017 5:15 PM GMT
You can ignore away lfc, doesn't matter a jot to anyone but yourself. However, all the clients and business partners of Rand who are listening closely and deciding where to invest matters an awful lot to an awful lot of people sadly.
Report unitedbiscuits December 12, 2017 5:23 PM GMT
Brexit started making you poorer as soon as the result of the referendum was known. In fact, the Leave vote caused the biggest one day loss of any major currency since they started free-floating. I remember IDS dismissing it airily, "currencies go up and down, that's what they do." (June 2016)

So Redwood was a bit late with the announcement

But the gang who own Brexit were always best positioned to profit from it. You can't take anything they say at face value. What they mean and what they say are very different things.
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 5:40 PM GMT
Here's a little bit of  advice, don't ask a barber if you need a haircut
Report unitedbiscuits December 12, 2017 5:42 PM GMT
By "the gang who own Brexit" I don't mean peripheral figures like Frank Field but the hard-Right "firm within a firm" inside the Conservative Party and figures like the Barclay Brothers and those bankrolling Cambridge Analytica. Their vision for the UK: Batista's Cuba, without the cocktails. Think of them passing a solid gold telephone round a table to Michael Gove, sat on Rupert Murdoch's knee.
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 5:50 PM GMT
One thing that annoys me is how some seem to think how great we are and hark back to the war when they say how we beat Germany. Just think of some of the stupid football chants when we play Germany.

To me that is stupid as with our allies we won the war. How many from our colonies fought for us? That would include many from India who fought in Burma. We were helped by stupid decisions by Hitler and probably the worst was attacking Russia. On that front we had the heaviest fighting in the war. Compare our win in a relatively small battle at El Alemain to a big tank battle at Kursk in Russia and to battles at Leningrad and Stalingrad. His Japanese allies brought the USA into the war when they attacked Pearl Harbour. Yes, we were on the winning side in the war, and many fought bravely for us but without the help of our allies, especially Russia, how would we have fared?
Report melv December 12, 2017 5:56 PM GMT
opinion means diddly at the end of the day even if they really, really, really believe it.

Yep I think the tide is turning and the plates are moving. More and more people will buy soft Brexit. " Well we won. At least we are out of the EU"

Now all they have to realize that as Farage points out " This deep and special relationship" is Remain with a change of name. I know people voted for emotional and viceral reasons one of these was all the immigration stuff "Hordes of Syrian and other "swarms".

That aspect of Brexit has toned down now. Hopefully many people are beginning to calm down. Emotional change is a lot harder than winning arguments. If people start to think of their children and grandchildren. Maybe one set of emotions can override another. Just a hope.
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 6:05 PM GMT
complete nonsense from doghouse , our colonies wouldnt have been able to fight the evil Nazi forces if it hadn't been for the British Empire
We gave them the guns , spears would have been ineffective against German tanks
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 6:21 PM GMT
And was it the soviets who gave them the guns? certainly not . They're selfish like that only caring about themselves
Well you can see what they did to Eastern Europe after the war of course
It's little wonder they had to build a wall to keep them in
That's all you need to know about the soviets
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 6:26 PM GMT
I would not be against leaving the EEC at some time in the future but I think this is not the right time. In this very uncertain time in the world I think it would be best to be part of a big group. The EEC, despite the flaws it may have best fits the bill along with our membership of NATO.

On our own how would we fare? Debt, both government and personal is high and changes in interest rates could easily drive us into a recession. Our productivity levels do not compare well to many other countries. While Germany and Japan who lost the war have advanced well manufacturing we have not and many of our best performing companies are foreign owned. Some came here because our membership of the EEC gave them unfettered access to their markets.

Our government will probably at times lack the power post BREXIT to develop our economy for the better There are individuals, hedge funds and even foreign governments with financial resources that can drive what action our government takes. I can remember in the past when speculators forced our government to take action. They put pressure on the £ when we were involved in the European exchange mechanism which tried to avoid big fluctuations between European currencies. Pressure from them caused us to  exit that and made a lot of money for those speculators.
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 6:26 PM GMT
Britain was prepared to fight in Europe, in Asia, even the deserts of Africa
Be thankful , that's what is wrong with people like doghouse
No one likes to be thankful
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 6:29 PM GMT
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 6:44 PM GMT
I very much admire the bravery of the British people who fought bravely in the war when sadly many lost their lives. On November 11th I always try to attend a service at our local Cenotaph. However, I do like to look at history as we can often learn from what happened in the past. When it come to casualties in the war I can think of a graveyard in this country with a number of graves of Canadian airmen. We owe a debt of appreciation to those from our empire who gave their lives fighting for us.

When it comes to Russia they like Germany had a ruthless dictator. Say what you like about Russia both after the war and now but the contribution of their armed forces and the heavy casualties they suffered had a great impact on the result of the war.
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
I am merely saying that Russia , unlike Britain and America ( who I notice you didn't mention although you mention Canada ) fought for themselves and no one else , and then enslaved Eastern Europe after the war
Now when someone is prepared to forget that , and of course not at any point praise America or Britain then I become suspicious   
I don't know why
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 7:36 PM GMT
The you do know in respect to casualties that there were literally tens  of thousands of their own men shot and executed by the soviets themselves , so this sort of thing has to be factored into anything else
The British and Americans were less reckless with the lives of their men
Report tanglefoot December 12, 2017 7:37 PM GMT
OP likes big banks,big corporate business,big government,cheap labour,so they can keep the little man in his place,how uppity for the little guy to vote for Brexit,so galling for these fat cats.
Report lfc1971 December 12, 2017 7:42 PM GMT
A soviet general Blokhin is recorded as having executed tens of thousands of prisoners with his own hand
That was just him alone , so don't talk about Russia during the war without looking at the truth
Report moisok December 12, 2017 7:46 PM GMT
comment against the Eu on the home of free speech (the guardian) gets you a ban

it is so funny
Report moisok December 12, 2017 7:47 PM GMT
got to the new euro museum  which cost 40 million  - britain almost written out of history - particularly churchill
Report melv December 12, 2017 7:49 PM GMT
The absolute number one reason for the whole project since the European coal and steel community in 1952 was to get the nations of Europe trading and working together so happily that there will be no more war in Europe. The overwhelmingly top reason. So leaving the EU  and  talking like we are still fighting a world war could be seen as a betrayal of all those who have died in wars in Europe over the centuries.

Until 1945 Europeans were almost permanently fighting each other. Before WW1 it was The Franco Prussian war 1870. Before that Napoleon. And so on and  on throughout thousands of years of history.

Now war is unthinkable. IMO this is because of the EU. It certainly  is the plan and intention behind the EU.

Don't say we have evolved into more peaceful beings. The US as been at war with some-one or other non stop since WW2.
Report tanglefoot December 12, 2017 7:54 PM GMT
War is now unthinkable because of the EU,famous last words,watch this space,EU and Russia will be squaring up seriously in the next ten years
Report tanglefoot December 12, 2017 8:10 PM GMT
Germany and France the two powers in the EU have both invaded Russia in the past,does anybody with any sense
expect a powerful EU,with Ukraine simpering believe Russia is going to take the fact that Germany is looking to create an EU army with no repercussions
Report glasshouses dogman December 12, 2017 8:20 PM GMT
There have been no wars between any members of the EEC., When we were joining the EEC  many tories, including Edward Heath, who had fought in the war stressed how bringing together countries economically had brought long lasting peace to Europe. However, there has been armed conflicts in parts of Europe. We now see problems in the Ukraine and earlier there were conflicts in the Balkans.

Look back in history to World war 2. Hitler initially claimed he wanted to bring areas outside Germany with large ethnic Germans into Germany. So we saw things like the Czech Sudetanland taken over by Germany. If you look now there are parts of what was under Soviet control with large numbers of ethnic Russians. We  have seen Russia take over the Crimea because of this. Russia is involved in the Ukraine and we may see more pressure from them in Eastern Europe. The danger of more conflict exists there.
Report moisok December 12, 2017 8:24 PM GMT
the eu have already tried it on in the ukraine

anyone heard of nato??  I wonder

they have kept the peace in europe not the eu
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