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06 Dec 17 11:01
Date Joined: 03 Dec 15
| Topic/replies: 7,126 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blog
So we've gone from eighty odd impact assessments in excruciating detail, today, an admission that there were in fact no impact assessments at all, merely an analysis of each sector but no detailed thought into how they'd be affected by Brexit.

I'm not sure where to start with this. I mean firstly, it isn't me primarily that should be getting upset. I'm part of the gang who warned that we'd be hopefully under-prepared for this and there's only so many times a person can say I told you so. But god knows, brexit is really setting new records in that number. No, the people who should be up in arms are those who fell for this hook, line and sinker. Those who bought into the Johnson and Farage myth that it'd all be hunky dory and we'll wake up one morning on the sunlit uplands newly out of the EU and enjoying our new found freedom. You bought into the lie that the winning side had the remotest clue what they were talking about. That they fully understood the consequences of them winning the thing and were somehow prepared for what it entailed.

Secondly, how many times are we going to allow those in power to lie to us and take us for idiots? I wonder - genuinely - is Davis trying to get himself fired. It would be a plausible explanation. He's already said he's close to retirement. Maybe he sees that this is too big for him but no-one is willing to take his place. Therefore, he needs to get himself sacked. But beyond him, what is the government actually doing? Did everyone else just take him on his word when he said he had these incredibly detailed analyses? Did no-one ask to see one? Didn't the chancellor? Didn't the transport secretary, the health secretary etc etc? Didn't the PM for god's sake? There should be a simple vote of no confidence in this government now. They are simply incapable.
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Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 11:27 AM GMT
Could you be more rude about people working their socks off for this country?

What is it your want? A Project Fear style forecast on exactly what each option will have on the UK?

How on earth would you do that will so many moving parts? No economic forecast has ever been remotely accurate.

Missing the 2008 crash in the forecasts is a key case study.

All you can do is base things in principles. Stay in the failing EU and get dragged down with it or break free.

On the the one hand your fear change of leaving the corporate backed EU on the other you support a man who wants to enforce an ideology that has killed over 100 million on this country.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 11:34 AM GMT
Explain "working your socks off" Is it preparing in excruciating detail dozens of impact assessments? Or is it not doing it?

Loving though how you happily toe the party line. Turns out Davis has been lying all along and suddenly you pipe up with "well we never needed them anyway and they'll probably be wrong". Just keep things at the broadest possible level and don't deliver any of the granular detail that is the job of - gulp - experts and it seems that 52% will still be happy, as long as we get our new passport and everything. Still convince ourselves that staying in the EU is worse. We don't know how bad the alternative is, because no-one's bothered to check but I promise you it'll be worse and my word's my bond. Apart from that last time. And the one before.
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 11:47 AM GMT

have a read of this to get some sense on the matter:

Key takeaway:

'The past is not a reliable guide to the future. The consensus is not always right. Economic forecasting is not a hard science, even though it pretends that it is.'
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 11:54 AM GMT
So why did he say months ago that his department has been doing detailed analysis in "excruciating detail"?
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 12:15 PM GMT
Are you asking me or him? If you can work out the exact detailed impact of staying in or leaving the EU on the future financial situation in the UK you are a genius.

Some people are pessimistic. They fear change even though things are always changing.

For instance who wins the next election I would think would have a much bigger impact.

If you think the pound fell after the referendum can imagine what would happen to pound if a Marxist seized power in the UK?

We dont know for sure. Would could not forecast it exactly.

All we can do is go back to first principles and know that every Marxist economy has failed economically and culturally.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 12:18 PM GMT
Are you asking me or him?

You. Why do you think he said he'd said (several times) that his department was/had been doing eighty odd incredibly detailed sectoral analyses to understand the potential impact of leaving the EU.

Why do YOU think he said that if he knew it was untrue?
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 12:25 PM GMT
I have no idea PP.

Do you know why Labour campaigned for the election saying they would end free movement of people but announced yesterday they were no longer honoring that commitment?

Politicians can generally not be trusted.
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 12:30 PM GMT
This was Labours position pre-election:
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 1:08 PM GMT
But you do accept though that Davis has lied about this?

I mean, you don't have to look far to find him saying these existed, only to start fudging when Parliament (sovereignty!) asked to see them, and now it turns out they didn't exist at all.

I'm wondering if I've missed something but it seems pretty clear that he did say something a while ago and has now just admitted he was in fact lying.
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2017 1:44 PM GMT
He's a fool or a knave; either they exist or they don't, you cannot say (in June) that 50-60 impact assessment have been done.  Asked if the PM had read them, he replied, she would have read "summaries" but not necessarily read them line by line as they were excruciating in their detail.

FWIW, this is extremely detailed (from Davis) so it's either a major fabrication (back in June) or they exist.

now he says there's no such thing as a sector by sector impact assessment on Brexit.

If that's true:  why not?

If that's true: why say (in June) what he said?

Entirely incompetent or corrupt.  And we all should be outraged these people are in charge.  We are all in this together; making excuses for incompetence (if you're pro Brexit) is bizarre.  In most other walks of life you'd be up in arms.

Say you bought a car.  And you made your choice and were happy with it.  Later, if somebody had told you red was available, and your would be delivered and it would be red, and a blue one arrived - you would rightly complain.  not what you wanted.

So - if you wanted Brexit - you didn't want a lying incompetent Brexit did you?

That's why we should all be angry about this.  He's openly lying/winging it.  It's not good enough - we all depend on the outcome here, whatever we voted for.
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2017 1:50 PM GMT
"all politicians lie" is not actually good enough either.

These lies are not being committed in the course of electioneering.  These are technical questions of fact.  There's no spinning of a version of the truth or of a form of words which is arguably true.  It's just either-or.

Impact assessments exist or they don't.
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 1:55 PM GMT
Ignore everything the economists might say , they can't be trusted , we have to leave and adapt to the modern world
same as it ever was
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2017 1:56 PM GMT
fair enough. 

what's that got to do with Davis changing his answer to the same question?
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:00 PM GMT
He's completely useless , ignore him
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:03 PM GMT
That is why decisions must evolve , over time .
We have to allow things such as trade agreements etc to come about over time
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 2:03 PM GMT
There is that alternative I suppose. Davis wasn't actually lying all those months ago. There really are several dozen impact assessments, all of which do in fact go into excruciating detail what Brexit will actually mean to each of them.

He's actually lied today instead. Facing the reality of having to release these to Parliament (sovereignty!) he's decided it's best to come out with a bare-faced lie and say he was only kidding.

Which begs the inevitable question: Just how bad is the impact going to be?
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:10 PM GMT
No matter how bad , or how good the impact accessments might be there is only one thing to do for any sensible person
Ignore them
Too much information can lead to poorer decisions , that's a little fact that very few people realise
Report bigpoppapump December 6, 2017 2:12 PM GMT
my guess would be that they don't exist.  But I'm with lfc on this - it doesn't matter whether they exist or not.  If they do, policy is not being formulated on the basis of any rational or scientific analysis so what difference does it make?

why calculate the cost of something which you've decided you're having regardless of the cost?

Davis has lied though or is incompetent (or both).  Clearly that doesn't matter to some people and does to others.
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:14 PM GMT
You see not only do we not know about the future , we don't know about the past either
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:21 PM GMT
You see not only can we not agree or know much about the past , because everyone has a different past and their perceptions are different
So how can we agree or know much about the future , it depends on whose future it is
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 2:24 PM GMT
Davies certainly doing a poor job. That appeasement 'deal' they cooked up on Monday was a total and utter disgrace.

Thank goodness for the DUP. Without them all the regions would have been asking to retain Single Market or Customs Union access and the goal of Brexit lost.

The problem is Labour as want an appeasement deal now.

The 52% not being represented by either party. Neither are being honest about what they want.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 2:26 PM GMT
Would you say Davis lied IT?
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:31 PM GMT
In fairness to Davis I think he is saying that no one knows anything , but at least he knows it
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 2:32 PM GMT
I dont know. Where do you think he lied?
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:32 PM GMT
People don't like it when you say , I'm not sure
Report lfc1971 December 6, 2017 2:34 PM GMT
People should agree that is sometimes a good thing to say I'm not sure
That's what Davis has done, I think
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 6, 2017 3:12 PM GMT
I'd personally say he either lied at the start in saying he and his team had prepared all these impact assessments.

Or he lied earlier today by saying they don't exist.

I don't think those two statements are compatible and so one must be a lie.

Would you agree or disagree with that?
Report InsiderTrader December 6, 2017 3:19 PM GMT
If he said something existed that does not exist then he lied.

I dont know what he said. It looks like the Brexit Committee that has far more information than us are unsure.

The main point is the Tories tried to sell us out on Monday and Labour given up on a campaign promise to end free movement.
Report bigpoppapump December 7, 2017 10:45 AM GMT

I dont know what he said.

Yes you do.  But his two mutually incompatible answers on a straight either-or question are uncomfortable so you don't want to know, or don't want to think about/accept the straightforward ramifications of his dishonesty.

FWIW he looks to me like a man looking for a way out.  This is probably as good a vehicle as any.
Report Wallflower December 7, 2017 11:55 AM GMT
lfc - yet again marvellous ability to miss the point. You can argue (foolishly imo) that you don't need to do analysis projections etc. But that is a separate point.

This is very straightforward, although mind-boggling.

Sequence of Events.

1.  It was taken as granted we need to do an industry analysis to assess impact of leaving the EU / SM / CU  - and therefore plan accordingly. It seemed rational.

2.  Davis repeatedly confirms this is naturally taking place - in 50-odd sectoral areas. So far, so good

3.  We trigger Article 50

4.  Davis repeatedly confirms the analysis taken place and the resultant documents are in "excruciating detail"

5.  Parliament requests to see them

6.  Davis says there aren't any in fact, and we haven't done any analysis either


-  If this happened in any other business those involved would be fired for lying and gross irresponsibility
-  We continue to be a laughing stock - banana republic behaviour - Dutch colleague says the mood in Europe is moving from "laughing" to "pity"
-  Its so bad - he is not facing contempt charges - no planning or preparation is now acceptable and expected!

All-round staggering incompetence is the just the norm.

I opened a thread on this, and its true - we are OFFICIALLY clueless.
Report InsiderTrader December 7, 2017 12:21 PM GMT
The Dutch think it is funny?

So what?

Our GDP is over 3 times the size of that they have.

Our military is stronger.

Let them laugh if they want to.

It would be like **** laughing at Betfair when Betfair is clearly doing better.
Report bigpoppapump December 7, 2017 12:22 PM GMT
Davis has been described at different times as lazy, and at others as "thick as mince".  And typically these descriptions are taken with a pinch of salt.  I think there's a natural tendency to give somebody who's reached a senior role in life credit along the lines of, "well they must have something going for them". 

But maybe it's just as simple as, the man made responsible for delivering the UK the best possible deal as we Exit the Eu is both lazy and stupid.


Is there any reason to think we have put our brightest minds on this on?

Report Wallflower December 7, 2017 12:31 PM GMT
Don't think they meant to laugh, I'd say they just couldn't help themselves.

Anyway its not that important and if that's all that's worrying you that's fine. Obviously you are not concerned we haven't a clue what we are doing.

(Oh yeah, hypothetically,:- EU militarily would be stronger than us, so I don't think the Dutch are that botheredHappy)
Report akabula December 7, 2017 11:33 PM GMT
Haven't read the thread so apologies if already said but I wondered who would be first to bite this media/remainers nonsense.
TBH PP I wasn't surprised to see it was you. LaughLaughLaugh

Until we know the deal we are leaving with it would be impossible in the time frame to cover all contingencies and come up with meaningful figures.

You remainers really are a sad lot clutching to straws that the media throw at you from all angles. Not long to go and your misery will be complete.
Report Wallflower December 12, 2017 10:24 PM GMT
Davis strikes again!!  Grin  Just fresh from the unbelievable comedy with the non-existent impact analyses and assessments. We have a few days later:

1. Spoofs on the Andrew Marr show ( playing down the agreement (capitulation?) about "statement of intent" and no bill without trade deal

2. Retracts quickly after the exasperated Irish get tetchy about it - says he was "misquoted"Happy

3. Now if there was any doubt who is charge - EU roll-in today tell him what's what - put that into law or we are not talking - he agrees. EU tell him no trade deal even starts until formally left EU.....and say "Davis understands this perfectly". Merci.

4. EU tell UK - stop being all conciliatory in Brussels then spoofing away to your local Brexiteers. Bascially time to man-up in Brussels AND London.

Now I know he admits he's not clever - but you would think it would occur to him that when he spoofing away back here that he can be heard in Brussels.

Funny thing is I quite like the guy - but seriously.......Grin
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 13, 2017 8:41 AM GMT
There's a narrative running through this whole farrago from the minute the count finished.

The "winning side" big themselves up and play to the gallery. Lots of jingoistic statements about a red, white and blue brexit, taking control, sovereignty etc etc but very, very little actual detail. Almost none in fact.

Meanwhile the EU are just sitting cross-legged on the mat. When asked they come out with clear statements, offering clarity about what will happen and what needs to happen. "Our" side don't like that at all. No, we won't be dictated to. We're in the driving seat finally and you will kneel before Zod.

Then the negotiations start. We get the row of the summer about how negotiations will pan out. That lasts a morning. Quite quickly we learn that no, we can't discuss trade alongside our exit at all. Bit of a choker really as we wanted to use our buying power to reduce any bill. But hey ho, plenty more battles to be won. So, let's just sort out the preliminary business before cracking on the main course. Just sort out the divorce bill, rights of EU nationals and Ireland and off we go.

So then, the divorce bill. Let's start (h/t Private Eye)
EU demands £40bn
Brexiteers say Britain can pay nothing to leave the EU and still get a good deal
EU confirms the bill is £40bn
Boris says Brussels can go whistle, they aren't getting a penny
EU says the bill is £40bn
John Redwood leads calls by Brexiteers for PM not to pay a penny and to walk away from negotiations with no deal
EU says the bill is £40bn
Brexiteers insist the EU is bluffing and not to offer any money
EU says the bill is £40bn
Britain agrees the bill is £40bn

Way to go team!!!

All those Brexiteers so full of bravado and getting so many likes on their twitter feeds suddenly fall silent. I've yet to hear plumby-plums chastise the government for selling the people (ha!) down the river. If someone could point me in the direction, I'd be grateful.

I mean, I could go on but I've got to take the kids to school. Ireland - an hilarious embarrassment. Rail against the possibility or a minority government needing favours from other parties, end up doing exactly that, pay them billions to vote your way and see them - within weeks - stiff you completely because suddenly you've effectively given them the balance of power. In the space of three days a Soft Brexit for N Ireland then became a Soft Brexit for the entire UK.

Way to go team!!!

And still they find new ways of embarrassing themselves further. David Davis. Sweet Jesus. If this was football we'd be making jokes about Agent Davis, a secret plant from the EU sent in to make us look stupid and subvert from within. Sadly it's not. And we have to witness this grinning moron witter on about not needing to be intelligent (as if he had a choice in the matter!) and no one in his party stops to think if that's an issue or not.

And we haven't even got to trade yet. The swivelled eyed loons still think we're going to get a great deal. Yikes.
Report Wallflower December 21, 2017 10:14 PM GMT
Some of the Impact Assessments have been published.

A treasure trove of analysis by all accounts.......for example, do you know Britain is an island with a long history of sea trading. LaughLaughLaugh
Report moisok December 21, 2017 10:19 PM GMT
wot a load of toss  - typical deflection and obfuscation

they do it with the islamic issues too
Report Wallflower December 21, 2017 10:22 PM GMT
who are "they" ?
Report moisok December 21, 2017 10:22 PM GMT
I would guess no one on here is in private business.

If you want to sell buy, manufacture  you pay the price that is going or what you can barter/agree etc

and that is how international business continues

if the japanese charge x for some small electrical motors and no one else can do it  you pay the price

and then get on with your business

Report Wallflower December 21, 2017 10:27 PM GMT
.... you obviously aren't, if you thing businesses  trade solely on price then no point discussing.Shocked.

Its one of many factors  - did you ever pay more for something because you thought long term it was better value? or perhaps not at that moment in time, but strategically a better option?
Report Wallflower December 21, 2017 10:28 PM GMT
*think businesses*
Report Wallflower December 21, 2017 10:40 PM GMT
The EU is a cartel of self-interest  - one of which is economic self-interest - co-operation and prosperity through mutual trade and "careful" but not closed trade with our countries / blocs. This culminated in the Single Market - the most successful trading arrangement in the history of the world. The brainchild of the UK ironically.

Just remember what the UK was before the EU, in the 70s we were the "sick man of Europe" a grim and grey place, while German bricklayers drove around in Mercs. Against their better judgement they let us in - and we have prospered greatly, being right on the doorstep to the world's biggest market.

With this new found prosperity (through services (much of which financial) we managed to funnel this wealth only to the few; and as many say about the UK we "privatise gains, and socialise losses". Our inability to distribute wealth has created our problems - the EU has been the scapegoat, conveniently disregarding why this is not the case elsewhere in EU. It was far too easy to blame the EU - and of course our badly educated rabble lap up Murdoch's shyte - the man who said the reason he hated the EU was  "when I go to Downing Street I tell them what to do, when I go to Brussels they tell me to f*ck off"
Report moisok December 22, 2017 1:12 PM GMT
You know nothing about me wallflower. So do not try to disparage when you know nothing.

I certainly wouldn't divulge my business activities to you or anyone else on here but those who know and have met me know I am involved in said activities.
I have 40 years experience and seen many changes.  One just competes in the market or gives up - or one can move to other markets etc.  Flexibility and diversification are two major elements

The eu is  more about federalisation and less about free market

we are about to see this with poland hungary etc

hope this helps
Report moisok December 22, 2017 1:14 PM GMT
punishment to non conformists follows
with germany leading the way

they have form for this with the poles I do believe
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 23, 2017 9:15 AM GMT
As takes go, comparing EU political sanctions against Poland because they are threatening the independence of their judiciary to what the Nazis did 80 years ago is among the all-time worst.

Seriously, moysey that is absolutely feeble.
Report moisok December 23, 2017 9:03 PM GMT
absolutely feeble but correct  we must punish anyone who steps out of line or has an alternative or radical view

quite clearly you side with the fascist federalists porky but then your connections and interests dictate that
Report moisok December 23, 2017 9:05 PM GMT
the german led eussr (ex third reich) with its french poodle  headed east into the ukraine

has this done before

I think leaders of both countries have form for this
Report moisok December 23, 2017 9:09 PM GMT
they sure have form with the Poles - or shall we just gloss over that?
Report moisok December 26, 2017 12:01 PM GMT
It's not very pleasant reading. But truth can hurt.  And they do have form for this.  And they certainly haven't forgiven us for our role in WWII.  Rest assured they will try to punish for leaving too.
But having sided with them I guess this has left you somewhat embarrassed when someone points it out.
Good luck with the central brussels bureaucracy takeover.  At least it won't be happening here. 
Perhaps you should hop over the channel and experience their experiment in de-nationalisation.  Mr Hilter of Minehead had similar ideas for the east.
Report moisok December 26, 2017 12:01 PM GMT
It's not very pleasant reading. But truth can hurt.  And they do have form for this.  And they certainly haven't forgiven us for our role in WWII.  Rest assured they will try to punish for leaving too.
But having sided with them I guess this has left you somewhat embarrassed when someone points it out.
Good luck with the central brussels bureaucracy takeover.  At least it won't be happening here. 
Perhaps you should hop over the channel and experience their experiment in de-nationalisation.  Mr Hilter of Minehead had similar ideas for the east.
Report moisok December 26, 2017 12:03 PM GMT
Porky seems to share the same tactic as KOD  - the insults flow freely.  The usual tactics of the EU loving slave to the iron heel of Brussels.
Report PorcupineorPineapple December 26, 2017 12:54 PM GMT
Honestly, moysey. Lay off the grass. You're a paranoid, delusional wreck. You desperately need an intervention.
Report moisok December 26, 2017 1:08 PM GMT
Why do the defenders resort to personal insults.  All I have done is to point out how people siding with the eu with their destructive contributions are actually supporting the tactics of previous attempts to eradicate opposition, or territorial ambitions shared with past dictators similar to the Eu's ambitions.
I must have hit a nerve there to get such insults - I wonder what porky's connections are?
Report edy December 27, 2017 12:48 AM GMT
And they certainly haven't forgiven us for our role in WWII.

You couldn't be any more wrong with this assessment of the german soul. Germans by and large admire and love (almost) all things British.
Report moisok December 27, 2017 12:21 PM GMT
Hitler certainly did.   Oooops!!!
Report moisok December 27, 2017 12:23 PM GMT
Germans, possibly but their politicians with their poodle have different plans for us.
Report edy December 27, 2017 12:48 PM GMT
The plan being that they'll vote for the UK to get just as comprehensive, or even better, a deal as any other third country on the planet.
Report moisok December 27, 2017 2:51 PM GMT
with a balance of 61billion in trade we are in a very strong position
Report edy December 27, 2017 2:57 PM GMT
Why even bother worrying about any supposed German grievances then? You got us in your pockets.
Report moisok December 27, 2017 3:10 PM GMT
Of course german manufacturers are going to mouth platitudes about protecting the single market - well they would wouldn't they.  It has allowed them to dominate the export field with their inbuilt advantage over the rest.  Look what it has done to some of the other economies though.
But behind the scenes  mr kruger mr blume and mr zetsche will be lobbying merkel like crazy.  They don't want merkel to fk up their exports and the rest of the 61 billion they flog us.
Report edy December 27, 2017 3:18 PM GMT
They won't need to do much lobbying. Cars (and parts) are included in third country EU trade deals deals and basically everyone of note in the EU is on record about the EU offering the UK a deal like Canada and beyond any day of the week.
Report edy December 27, 2017 3:26 PM GMT
The problem is elsewhere.

Imagine being a member of a bakery club. You pay a fee, meet some other conditions and in return you get a few things back. Now your fair-haired, somewhat clownish father and your lanky übersnob uncle come along and tell you that you can cancel your subcription and still eat all the cake you want because the bakery is desperate.

Of course that's an incredibly silly thing to think. The bakery instead offers you a deal just like, or even better, than all other non-members enjoy. Of course that can not include all the benefits the members enjoy.

Now, who are the arseclowns? Is it the bakery or are it your father and uncle for filling the cake-loving cheapskate with ridiculous, unrealisable ideas straight out of la la land?
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:10 PM GMT
That's just the sort of thing that happens all the time in life , many such situations come to mind
they are so common
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:12 PM GMT
Bakeries and other things are often offering deals such as that , banks and golf clubs and yes all manner of things and people ..even countries
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:13 PM GMT
You see everyone is not the same , and everyone is not equal
And neither are countries , who could deny that ?
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:15 PM GMT
Is it possible to be a member of a club , even the EU
and paying more than other members of that club ?
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:20 PM GMT
It is possible to play golf and never be member of any club , and eat cake also should you wish
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:27 PM GMT
The golf course is there , that is the important thing . Some people join and play , some pay green fees and play , and some play without bothering to pay , and some can play freely with excemption from any fees whatsoever
Golf is a beautiful game and even at times will have members who pay less than other members of the club
That's how things are in the real world
Report lfc1971 December 27, 2017 5:36 PM GMT
sometimes it becomes too expensive, or too much trouble to be a member of a golf club
Report moisok December 27, 2017 6:24 PM GMT
But spreading their influence eastwards still holds fascination for the western politicoes - it always has.
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