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Meadow X1
20 Apr 17 09:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Mar 05
| Topic/replies: 2,731 | Blogger: Meadow X1's blog
Thought it would be good to start a thread on what we are actually here for!  There are a host of different markets up now, from the usual of most seats, percentage band of vote etc.  Apart from on Paddy Power there are no constituency seats betting as yet.  From my own viewpoint I feel the LibDem chances may be overrated. Paddy Power opened with 34.5 seats (5/6 higher or lower). This has now been cut in line with other bookmakers to 31.5 which I still think is too high. I will try and give more detail on this in a separate thread (particularly the LibDem Scotland target seats).  The huge estimate Conservative seat gain is mainly based on the UKIP vote collapsing and as each new opinion poll arrives almost daily, this UKIP voting intention will have a direct impact on the bookie prices.
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Report ufcdan June 9, 2017 2:47 AM BST
Clegg gone good looks like people do know what their voting for.......and it's not you LaughLaughLaugh
Report treetop June 9, 2017 2:47 AM BST
Byebye Clegg,still will never understand that people do not want EU, he has been never ending on the subject.
Report roadrunner46 June 9, 2017 2:47 AM BST
LMAOLaugh 1/5 out to 3/1 for overall majority
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 2:47 AM BST
snp held onto glasgow east by 75 votes Scared
Report jedi sophie June 9, 2017 2:47 AM BST
Aboot greeting big Clegg.
Report Ski-Wiz June 9, 2017 2:48 AM BST
No doubt the elites will give Cleggy a job within the EU instead of finding a factory job.
Report wondersobright June 9, 2017 2:51 AM BST
horrible EU are slicker clegg goodbye to you
Report Des Pond June 9, 2017 2:51 AM BST
Someone said something the other day about young people voting on a whim. Could it be the result of reality TV? Voting has been trivialised to such an extent that large sections of the population give no more consideration to how the country will be run than they would to the winner of X-factor or big brother. Or is that unfair on the young?
Report donny osmond June 9, 2017 2:55 AM BST
vince cable , now theres a party leader in waiting !
Report donny osmond June 9, 2017 2:56 AM BST
reality tv has changed reasons for the young to vote, almost certainly

not all of them but some of them
Report Solano1 June 9, 2017 2:57 AM BST
Farron looking like a recount, Donny.
Get on. Cool
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 2:59 AM BST
Watch the yam yams screw this up,can see a sea of blue in the mid;ands fingers crossed they're not as stupid as i thought...Grin
Report jedi sophie June 9, 2017 3:00 AM BST
huge discrepancies in turnout also!only 53 % in glasgow east that Labour just won!
Report gambeano June 9, 2017 3:05 AM BST
Gummer gone in Ipswich. No surprise there. To busy writing the manifesto and he took us for granted! The Tory leaflet dropped through the door 2 days ago FFS, almost as an afterthought!
Report treetop June 9, 2017 3:09 AM BST
Ipswich voting for Remain now gambeano ?
Report Ski-Wiz June 9, 2017 3:12 AM BST
May wearing red so and so instead of blue.
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:17 AM BST
Canterbury in Kent!!Laughunbelievable...
Report jedi sophie June 9, 2017 3:17 AM BST
fairly weird choice of clothes though im no fashion guru SKI!RED...LaughLaughLaugh
Report Ski-Wiz June 9, 2017 3:19 AM BST
UKIP standing down in certain seats was a mistake. Labour voters whom voted for UKIP declined to vote for the tories and went back to Labour.
Report Des Pond June 9, 2017 3:19 AM BST
Lord buckethead Laugh
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:20 AM BST
snp hold onto glasgow east by 75 votes and perth by .... 21 Happy
Report wondersobright June 9, 2017 3:20 AM BST
a guy just got 3 votes Laugh
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:20 AM BST
3 votes.  that is going some !!
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:21 AM BST
Looks like the leavers have changed their mindsShockedpeterborough 61% leave went labour!!Shocked
Report Des Pond June 9, 2017 3:21 AM BST
A lot of candidates in that seat
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:22 AM BST
buckethead didn't put anyone up in mine ..
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:22 AM BST
buckethead didn't put anyone up in mine ..
Report gambeano June 9, 2017 3:25 AM BST
@treetop - I don't think so. The constituency was predominantly Labour for many years (1974 -> 2010, except for 1987 -> 1992). I do honestly think Gummer just took his eye off the ball. He's apparently rated well into the 500's out of 600+ MP's on the scale of replying to constituency correspondence (i.e. pretty low!) and only rents a house in the town to ensure he can claim to live locally. The country is divided in 3 ways now, Leave/Remain, Conservative/Labour, Young/Old... bit of an unholy mess.
Report jedi sophie June 9, 2017 3:25 AM BST
Clown could hardly get her words out FFS!Scuttling out the back door!TARA love!
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:27 AM BST
farron scrapes home.  lucky boy.
Report Captain Wurzel June 9, 2017 3:31 AM BST
Humiliation for Nuttall.
Report If Dolphins Were Monkeys June 9, 2017 3:35 AM BST
Paul ****all more like.
Report jedi sophie June 9, 2017 3:36 AM BST
!Night all,WD winners
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:37 AM BST
20% gain in canterbuty this is unreal,Loveno seat is safe...
Report Des Pond June 9, 2017 3:39 AM BST
Hope the old trout isn't going to do an Arsene Wenger on us. Should be made to go. Cry
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:41 AM BST
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:41 AM BST
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:41 AM BST
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
Report thegiggilo June 9, 2017 3:41 AM BST
The beautiful thing is there's no replacements all absolutely awful..
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:46 AM BST
huge move for boris johnson pm after election

8/1 -> 10/3 last 5 mins
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 3:48 AM BST
£371 matched at 1000 Shocked
Report Des Pond June 9, 2017 3:49 AM BST
Corbyn will have to make a coalition with someone, or else the Tories will stay in Govt. Thing is, both the Lib-dems and the SNP want to reverse Brexit, and he doesn't. So, who can Corbyn approach to form a Govt?
Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 3:51 AM BST
north east fife recount- rumour says there are 3 votes in it!
Report hulk23 June 9, 2017 4:19 AM BST
alex salmond dumped .. Shocked
Report wondersobright June 9, 2017 4:21 AM BST
salmond another top wanchor OUT what a great night
Report If Dolphins Were Monkeys June 9, 2017 4:22 AM BST
David Cameron: “I’m the stupidest Tory prime minister there’s ever been.”

Theresa May: “Hold my Pimms."
Report wondersobright June 9, 2017 4:56 AM BST
rudd holds on, lucky cow
Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 5:11 AM BST
Fife north east apparently one vote in it on the latest recount!
Report tof June 9, 2017 5:17 AM BST
Brexit is dumb and should be voided
Report n88uk June 9, 2017 5:41 AM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 4:22AM, If Dolphins Were Monkeys wrote:


David Cameron: “I’m the stupidest Tory prime minister there’s ever been.” Theresa May: “Hold my Pimms."


David Cameron would have wiped Labour off the map here.

Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 9:32 AM BST
Jings, I am 170 better off if Labour sneak back under 40%. It's 40.0 with two results to come!
Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 9:37 AM BST
the two seats left are north cornwall (labour duff) and kensington (a recount I guess).
Report InsiderTrader June 9, 2017 9:38 AM BST
Good calls Meadow. Did you win virtually all your bets?
Report anxious June 9, 2017 9:39 AM BST
2nd recount in Kensington Labour favourites to take it
Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 9:41 AM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 9:38AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Good calls Meadow. Did you win virtually all your bets?


It will take me a while to count it up! I still have to sit here and watch for the next result though to see it to the end.

Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 10:11 AM BST
Managed to get an even 85 on 40 and above so happy with that, better taking 85 profit than nothing at all.
Report crete June 9, 2017 11:12 AM BST
GSM - nothing has actually changed
Report MartinK June 9, 2017 11:31 AM BST
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Was a godsend - had Canterbury as a "lean Labour" 25/1, Ipswich as a LIKELY LABOUR 9/1 and Kensington - TOSSUP - (still counting) at 25/1.
Report yodacricket June 9, 2017 11:41 AM BST
Are they really slow at working out which results suit the bookmakers most at Kensington. A bit like watching superbowl if you backed Atlanta if your on 40.01 or more labour percentage. A slow death.
Report Fatslogger June 9, 2017 11:47 AM BST
Was looking at various results thinking that I couldn't quite recall what you were on Meadow but that it looked like you were clearing up. Thank for the tip on UKIP total vote - won over a grand on that. Had some other big wins but got totally wrong footed by the first few results looking like bucking the exit polls so lost heavily on majority and on the extent of Tory majority markets. I have pulled myself back with some heavyweight backing of May for PM and Tory minority government this morning at prices a bit over 1.5 so will be an overall modest winner.
Report crete June 9, 2017 11:48 AM BST
May for PM is free money now, surely. Still 1.06 Shocked
Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 12:24 PM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 11:47AM, Fatslogger wrote:


Was looking at various results thinking that I couldn't quite recall what you were on Meadow but that it looked like you were clearing up. Thank for the tip on UKIP total vote - won over a grand on that. Had some other big wins but got totally wrong footed by the first few results looking like bucking the exit polls so lost heavily on majority and on the extent of Tory majority markets. I have pulled myself back with some heavyweight backing of May for PM and Tory minority government this morning at prices a bit over 1.5 so will be an overall modest winner.


Thanks fats, it was a really good night. I managed to get on the UKIP one at 1.5 for a good few bob and frankly it was never in doubt. Virtually everything dropped in for me, even Zac (2.36) and Dudley North dropped in on recounts in the last dozen results or so. Missed out on under 10.5 LibDem seats but already had them under 37.5,34.5 and 18.5.

Report bingo bongo June 9, 2017 12:56 PM BST
Surely May as pm shouldn't be suspended yet. She hasn't formed a government yet.
Report anxious June 9, 2017 1:08 PM BST
Labour win Kensington
Report Fatslogger June 9, 2017 1:22 PM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 12:56PM, bingo bongo wrote:


Surely May as pm shouldn't be suspended yet. She hasn't formed a government yet.


Think you're right but they do seem to be settling it.

Report donny osmond June 9, 2017 1:23 PM BST
if shes been to see queen its done ...
Report Fatslogger June 9, 2017 1:25 PM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 1:23PM, donny osmond wrote:


if shes been to see queen its done ...


That's not the form of words they use - it needs to be PM of a government, which she isn't yet. Of course she will be, so is a bit academic.

Report rock piper June 9, 2017 1:26 PM BST
Not getting into the rights and wrongs of Breixt, but as it appears now, Brexit means BINO or Brexit in Name Only.

I had a conversation with a mate in the pub last week and advised him to and as I had done to lay May (I forgot about the election last night and never traded out my position) on the basis that as the potential financial impact of the hard or car crash Brexit proposed by May, that people who had voted leave would walk quietly away from it, becoming shy Remoaners as it were.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

Whatever happens, I hope ye get it together over there ASAP, ye are due at the table in a week or so.
Report donny osmond June 9, 2017 1:27 PM BST
forgot about election Laugh
Report crete June 9, 2017 1:29 PM BST
betfair reopened the PM market !
Report rock piper June 9, 2017 1:29 PM BST
I am in Ireland Donny and I never watch the news.
Report bingo bongo June 9, 2017 1:30 PM BST
We can still bet on the make up of the next government so it follows that she hasn't formed one (yet).
Report Jes1981 June 9, 2017 2:10 PM BST
When will she have formed one then? When will they settle that market?
Report Fatslogger June 9, 2017 2:31 PM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 1:29PM, crete wrote:


betfair reopened the PM market !


Better get some more on then.

Report ufcdan June 9, 2017 8:20 PM BST
Why BF not paying out atm on next PM after the election ?
Report Meadow X1 June 9, 2017 8:27 PM BST
It might be because there is still one result to come in.
Report ufcdan June 9, 2017 8:32 PM BST
Not going to back it but it looks like a 13% interest rate is being offered. Must be a reason though so I'll leave it. Started last night with 1p in my account. £519.43 this morning, my dislike of Labour paid off Laugh
Report Fatslogger June 9, 2017 8:46 PM BST

Jun 9, 2017 -- 8:20PM, ufcdan wrote:


Why BF not paying out atm on next PM after the election ?


I don't think she's officially formed a government yet.

Report The Leopard June 9, 2017 10:45 PM BST
Boris Johnson in to 25 from 34 in the last hour....here we go !
Report The Leopard June 9, 2017 10:54 PM BST
23

May going to quit ?
Report Fatslogger June 9, 2017 10:58 PM BST
Overnight? Probably not. Markets drift about.
Report Fatslogger June 10, 2017 8:59 AM BST
Well it drifted about up to my further back of May at 1.39. She's now back at a still astonishing 1.25. The decision's made, isn't it? What are we missing?
Report jollyswagman June 11, 2017 4:04 PM BST
well done meadow, its good to see someone profiting from doing their research. you are able to forget your own politics when making your gambling decisions which helps greatly.
Report Meadow X1 June 12, 2017 12:26 PM BST
Thanks Jolly. Luckily there were markets on everything including all 650 constituencies. If you have maybe a dozen or so bookies vying for custom and slow to react to price changes there were always going to be money making opportunities.
Report anxious June 12, 2017 12:59 PM BST
Yes well done meadow , you were very consistent on here about the tory lead and being sceptical about it all the way through.
Report treetop June 12, 2017 1:28 PM BST
Quality posts meadow, I bow to your superior analysis mate,very enjoyable insight.
Report vantastic54 June 14, 2017 4:53 PM BST
Will the Tory/Dup arrangement be classed as a coalition.Tia.
Report Meadow X1 June 14, 2017 5:04 PM BST

Jun 14, 2017 -- 4:53PM, vantastic54 wrote:


Will the Tory/Dup arrangement be classed as a coalition.Tia.


No

Report Fatslogger June 14, 2017 5:43 PM BST
Only a coalition if seats offered at cabinet, therefore that and the PM market look absolutely done deals to me and can't see why you can get a bet on them at longer than 1.02. I'm already so heavily committed I've only just had a bit more on May though.
Report CJ70 June 19, 2017 10:13 AM BST
Well this was sub-optimal from a betting pov. Pretty strong on constituency seats as I was backing against LD favourites, of course that's weighed down by Lab hitting 40% so most Lab>Con bets went down. I had Lab in London doing well, so avoided most of the pitfalls there. Lost a fortune on Con majority, Corbyn to face an election and other seat markets.

Now, how on earth did Lab manage 40%! I've been away for the last week, but literally anybody I've spoken to who was active in the election didn't pick up these Lab voters. Shy Labour? Non-voters coming out of the woodwork? I have no idea. YouGov and Survation seemed to get the numbers correct, but based on ridiculous turnouts of the young which didn't occur. Altogether rather puzzling.

An excellent result for the Conservatives percentage wise, I'm sure pre-election anybody would have bit your hand off for 43-44%. Of course a terrible night in terms of seats when you consider Labour hit 40%.

This thread was also a credit to the forum, threads like this are what the forum should be about. We had the usual suspects try and ruin it, but overall it remained informative and betting related rather than partisan abuse.

Glad to see there were people who had a far better night than I did.
Report anxious June 19, 2017 11:39 AM BST
Partisan abuse knock me down with a feather , Billy you underestimated Jeremy again you must keep up Laugh
Report CJ70 June 19, 2017 12:49 PM BST

Jun 19, 2017 -- 11:39AM, anxious wrote:


Partisan abuse knock me down with a feather , Billy you underestimated Jeremy again you must keep up


In reference to the comment I made above. It's clear he doesn't have a clue about the subject and every post is abuse filled.

Report anxious June 19, 2017 1:07 PM BST
Abuse ?  your imagination is in overdrive again , i think he protest to much
Report CJ70 June 19, 2017 1:13 PM BST
It wouldn't surprise me if you don't read your own posts or understand them, but all you ever post on this forum is abuse.
Report anxious June 19, 2017 1:15 PM BST
Please enlighten me where have i posted so called abuse on here today
Report CJ70 June 19, 2017 1:19 PM BST
We do this all the time, where you pretend to not be abusive or claim it is the other way around. We go round and round in circles all the time with this charade because you post nothing but abuse and then try and run away from it. It's not as if it's just today either is it? All you ever post on these forums is abusive messages when people don't agree with you.
Report anxious June 19, 2017 1:24 PM BST
Not at all that is simply not true , i have asked you where on this thread i have posted so called abuse , again you have failed to provide any evidence , this only again highlights the lies you spread especially towards people who disagree with your political views
Report Fatslogger June 20, 2017 9:29 PM BST
Struggling to see any abuse from anxious on this thread, so "every post is absurd filled" seems a transparent falsehood as does "all you ever post on this forum is abuse". Sorry C170 but you're just talking rubbish, aren't you? I can see why anxious' posting style might be irritating but it's not abusive on this thread and don't recall it being abusive on others, much if at all. Think you need to quote some examples or back down, really.
Report Fatslogger June 20, 2017 10:17 PM BST
While I like "absurd filled", I meant "abuse filled".
Report Meadow X1 December 27, 2017 7:26 PM GMT
For Stewartry b and lfc.
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