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melv
07 Jun 16 18:58
Joined:
Date Joined: 19 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 6,110 | Blogger: melv's blog
Ok I’m sad that it looks like are out of Europe. Hope the idealistic dream isn’t lost for ever and the whole thing falls apart into warring nation states as was the norm.

But Brexit is a con is it not? You voted Tory coz Cameron said he would lead the out campaign if he did not get his demands. Liar.

Now look what you get. With 2/3 of MP’s as “Stay” they will only pass Brexit- lite legislation when the treaty is ratified. Which will probably take 10 years. I doubt you will notice the difference.

And you will love this. When the pound falls 20% the Russians, the Chinese, the Arabs and every murderous dictator on the planet will fill his boots with property in the UK. That of course includes Euro billionaires which could easily be parity with the pound. So good Olde England will be mostly owned by Muslim billionaires. And all you patriots will get is over priced housing in the South East. Worth it? For what? What did you really think you would get? Exemption from the Human rights Act?.
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Report melv July 21, 2017 11:15 AM BST
a group who must tow the line

Yeah but what line????. "Singapore in the English channel, one of many varieties of soft Brexit, Summat else. I dunno, you dunno, Barnier dunno. But the point is that the Tory party hasn't a clue what it wants either.


I know, I know every Brexiteer knows exactly what is going on and precisely what they want. In their wish fulfilment dreamworld.
Report Whisperingdeath July 21, 2017 2:28 PM BST
I think the Tory Party does not know what it wants and that is the main problem. Of course we think we know what we want but don't know how to go about it.

I would state that the people I spoke to at the time were of the general opinion that we wanted Sovereignty and Control of our Borders. We want free trade but we do not want free movement of peopleHow that works I have no idea!

I would also state that many of us are pro European and not anti and also that many if not a large majority are not racist.


This thing about the divorce bill. Very bad very bad. Borris mouthing off is pathetic too, shows what his interests are....PERSONAL.

Who pays for the pensions of British Workers who were at the EU etc? When the EU said they wanted a pay off I was enraged as most Sun readers were but we have signed up to certain liabilities and commitments and should honour them. Any Politician who says they should go whistle is some sort of ****!
Report melv July 28, 2017 5:12 PM BST
The con......is........on. Take one.

Just listen to the news. Just listen to the news.Just listen to the news.


"We will just walk out" HA ha ah ha hha ha ha HA ha ah ha hha ha ha HA ha ah ha hha ha ha "

No Deal is better than??????? than what???? eh eh ha ha ha ah ha ha eh eh ha ha ha ah ha ha

Open your eyes and ears. Wake up.Leave that dreamland and wake up. What as effin farce.

This broadcast in not brought to you from Mels reasonable debate section.ExcitedExcitedExcitedCrazy
Report melv July 28, 2017 5:19 PM BST
I doubt you will notice the difference. Melv 18 months ago.

"You may not notice the difference" Chancellor Phillip Hammond. Right now.
Report melv August 15, 2017 11:20 PM BST
Its not even a clever con anymore is it. Here's your leader Brexit. You have about 12 months to get an agreement.

“You will find it difficult sometimes to read what we intend,” David Davis told BBC’s Today programme. “That’s deliberate. I’m afraid in negotiations you do have constructive ambiguity from time to time.”



You could not make it up. Surely there is no intention to do Brexit at all.
Report melv August 16, 2017 6:49 AM BST
Now look what you get. With 2/3 of MP’s as “Stay” they will only pass Brexit- lite legislation when the treaty is ratified. Which will probably take 10 years. I doubt you will notice the difference.


That's a quote from me 14 months ago. Its not true you won't notice the difference. There will not be a difference on the Irish border. Hurrah.
Report melv August 20, 2017 4:44 PM BST
Note to self. At Tory conference look out for any reputable MP's saying that evading the European Court of Justice is at all feasible.
Report melv August 23, 2017 7:13 PM BST
Teresa May backs down on ECG. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooommmmmmmmmm.

How much more does hard Brexit have to unravel before the Brexiteers realise they were conned.
Report melv September 22, 2017 6:47 AM BST
OK OK it will be a very very painfully slow process but today will be the first peep under the covers of blllllshttt that has been masking the con for so long.
Report melv October 19, 2017 2:31 PM BST
Still think you are not being conned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqsOtaLOGYg
Report melv November 27, 2017 7:45 AM GMT
And the biggest con was that it would all be so easy. And Brexiteers are still saying that Ireland will be a push over. Lots of English people have always thought that Ireland is a push over.

Now lads here's the truth. Ireland has a veto on moving to the next round. Do an alt truth fake news dodge on that one.

Lets see how much of a push over this will be.

Yeah yeah you knew what you were voting for; you thought this on out. Truth is you are not bovvered about Ireland. Thats a good way of getting the veto button pressed.

Con within  con with plenty of self conning on top.
Report melv December 9, 2017 9:24 AM GMT
There was no such word as Soft Brexit in Feb 06 when I penned this. I called it "Brexit-lite".

they will only pass Brexit- lite legislatio

Now Soft brexit is official and accepted. Gove wants an election to overthrow it. But here's the headlines.

Daily Mail. "Rejoice we are on our way".

Times "May bounces back".

Daily Express." Huge Brexit boost at last.

Ever feel like you've been conned.
Report melv January 24, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
I posted this before the referendum. Soft Brexit and  had not been invented. I called it Brexit-lite. Yanis Varoufakis was predicting and recommending the Norway off the peck model. I wish I had mentioned it then so I could have looked perfectly prescient.

I have only one word to say.

Told-you-so.

The civil servants here and in the EU are drawing up the documentation as we speak. Done deal. "Easy peasy" as Farage and his conman army used to say.
Report melv January 25, 2018 12:21 PM GMT
For the record.

Varadkar in Davos.

“I think it will be a specific agreement for the United Kingdom. Of course as Ireland we want that to be as close as possible - we would have it ‘Norway-plus’ but I think we have to get into the detail now of what that means,” he told Bloomberg Television in an interview in Davos, Switzerland."


While Britain has repeatedly said it will not remain in the EU customs union or single market, “perhaps we can negotiate something that isn’t very different to that,” Mr Varadkar said.
Such a deal would, however, require the UK to realise that it cannot cherry pick benefits of EU membership without the corresponding responsibilities.

On same hymn sheet as Macron. Not as clear with poorer use of English and worse communication skills. Drip drip drip drip. You will get it eventually Brexit.
Report bigpoppapump January 25, 2018 1:14 PM GMT
I have only one word to say.

Told-you-so.


3 words
Report melv January 25, 2018 1:37 PM GMT
I put hyphens.ExcitedCrazyCrazyCrazy
Report bigpoppapump January 25, 2018 1:43 PM GMT
3 hyphenated words are 3 hyphenated words.  Not 1 word.

FAKE GRAMMAR

Silly
Report melv January 29, 2018 12:25 AM GMT
There's new name for it. BINO.

So now you know what Teresa meant when she said Brexit means Brexit.

She meant " Brexit. In. Name. Only."

I am sure you have had long enough to get used to the con by now.

You are not surprised. Are you?
Report Foinavon January 29, 2018 11:23 AM GMT
Varadkar knows that without a deal, Ireland is in the poo-poo. Their agricultural exports to the UK would suddenly become less competitive so either they take a hit or try to sell an awful lot more into the EC which won't be easy given the competition from France and Denmark especially who will be trying to do the same thing.

The value of the pound compared to USD is not much different now to what it was before the vote.
Report bigpoppapump January 29, 2018 11:59 AM GMT
US Dollar values getting hit need to be viewed in light of Trump adding $1.5 Trillion to the US deficit.  (As well as UK market confidence that Brexit wont look much different from Remain).
Report melv January 29, 2018 3:34 PM GMT
(As well as UK market confidence that Brexit wont look much different from Remain).

HappyHappyHappyHappyHappyHappyHappyHappyHappy
Report melv February 27, 2018 8:31 AM GMT
This was posted months before the election. 19 Feb 2016. Please stop saying that you did not know that "Brexit light" was one of the outcomes of an out vote.

Nearly 10 K hits already Enough of the "Only Hard Brexit was on the voting slip" already.Its self seeking, self deluding twaddle, you are showing yourself up. Aren't you.
Report unitedbiscuits February 27, 2018 8:35 AM GMT
Good work Melv.
Probably over 10k, if you count the ones the report-crazy zealots got deleted.
Report unitedbiscuits March 4, 2018 9:25 AM GMT
Cool
Report melv March 4, 2018 9:55 AM GMT
Thanks Biscuits. I wonder how it turns out to you that helps me out.Love

Here's more proof that the fix is in.

We will compromise says May. So this is a mega super climbdown. It opens up the door so a whole cascade of climb downs can  flood out.

I predict there will be No customs union;; just a customs union by another name.

There will be no ECJ;; just an ECJ by another name.

And tons of other climbdowns called "compromises"

I am very very very happy about all this.

Look at all the time,energy and billion of pounds wasted by Cameron and you lot. I hope you are happy about  that.
Report Dr Crippen March 4, 2018 9:58 AM GMT
(As well as UK market confidence that Brexit wont look much different from Remain).

So according to UB's expert opinion on the currency markets, the pound should be back were it was before the Brexit vote.

Yet it isn't.

Is he ready to admit that he doesn't know what he is talking about in this area?
Report Dr Crippen March 4, 2018 10:01 AM GMT
That's if melv is correct which he isn't.

So I'll leave melv and UB, who seem two very confused posters to work it out between themselves.

They can't both be right. Yet they can both be wrong.

I'll put my full bank the second option.
Report TheBetterBettor March 5, 2018 12:25 PM GMT
Theresa May calls for the Brexit transition to be extended indefinitely beyond December 2020


You can checkout anytime, but you're not allowed to LEAVE.
Report melv March 5, 2018 12:50 PM GMT
Thanks Thebetterbettor. Just for the record. Time will tell re veracity.

LONDON — The UK government has called for the EU to discuss extending the Brexit transition period indefinitely beyond December 2020, in a move that is likely to enrage Conservative Brexiteers.
The EU has previously insisted that Britain must be fully out of the EU by December 31, 2020, meaning a transition period would not be able to go beyond 20 months.
However, the UK's Brexit transition guidelines leaked to Business Insider, calls on the EU to discuss leaving this end date open indefinitely.
Report melv March 5, 2018 12:55 PM GMT
For Betterbetter. Could be Brexit theme tune.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqPtz5qN7HM
Report melv March 19, 2018 6:22 PM GMT
Just for the record and to celebrate 10,000 reads.
Backdown on EU citizens rights now official.

New in.

Backdown on Irish Border.

Backdown on fishing.

Norway Model here we come.
Report melv March 20, 2018 5:03 AM GMT
To quote myself from 2016.

the Arabs and every murderous dictator on the planet will fill his boots with property in the UK.
Report melv March 20, 2018 5:11 AM GMT
To quote myself from 2016.

the Arabs and every murderous dictator on the planet will fill his boots with property in the UK.

And fresh from dining with the Queen Mohammed bin Salman Wahhabist ruler of Saudi Arabia the non democratic Monarchy is saying he wants to come back for more ASAP. A trade deal with him means he will be able to buy any of our green and pleasant land and its resources that he fancies.

And Brexiteers love it? Really?
Report melv April 12, 2018 10:38 AM BST
Amid News of the amount of London owned by Russian Kleptocrats and predictions that after Brexit the pound will fall below the Euro making our capital even cheaper for all the Kleptoctats corrupt governments and dictator's of the planet to buy up. Welcome to the future well done Brexit voters.
Report flushgordon1 April 12, 2018 10:43 AM BST
Predictions my arse.
Report flushgordon1 April 12, 2018 10:49 AM BST
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=73d_1399310588
Report melv April 12, 2018 2:21 PM BST
Predictions my arse.

Pre Referendum

And you will love this. When the pound falls 20% the Russians, the Chinese, the Arabs and every murderous dictator on the planet will fill his boots with property in the UK.

Cool
Report melv June 13, 2018 4:03 PM BST
Now look what you get. With 2/3 of MP’s as “Stay” they will only pass Brexit- lite legislation when the treaty is ratified. Which will probably take 10 years. I doubt you will notice the difference.


Proof that all this was obvious from the word go. But not of us knew the sheer absurdity of the chaos we were about to create.
Report TheBetterBettor June 18, 2018 6:43 PM BST
^^^^^ all thover people who voted for Brexit should've voted for UKIP at the last election
Report TheBetterBettor June 18, 2018 6:43 PM BST
*those
Report melv June 22, 2018 3:57 PM BST
Although no-one and I mean no-one knew the Byzantine complexity of the devilish details. This does show that you lot were warned and never the less soldiered insanely on. Therefore you owe us an apology.
Report melv July 7, 2018 7:46 AM BST
"Hugely disappointing but hardly surprising. May,most of the Cabinet and all the advisors are Remainers. They see Brexit as a problem to be managed rather than an opportunity to be grasped."

"The EU wont reject it just push Treason May into a few more concessions ,which now she,s come this far she,ll meekily bend over."


Nicely put Kublai and First Timer. Isn't it refreshing to see that the truth is clear simple and fantasy free.

And one from me on the seventh of July 2016. Its easy to update this post. Just look for 11 thousand
hits.

Now look what you get. With 2/3 of MP’s as “Stay” they will only pass Brexit- lite legislation when the treaty is ratified. Which will probably take 10 years. I doubt you will notice the difference.
Report melv July 7, 2018 7:48 AM BST
Ok I’m sad that it looks like are out of Europe. Hope the idealistic dream isn’t lost for ever and the whole thing  does not fall apart into warring nation states as was the norm.

Just finally make the opening post clearer.
Report melv July 7, 2018 8:03 AM BST
Ok I’m sad that it looks like we are out of Europe. Hope the idealistic dream isn’t lost for ever and the whole thing  does not fall apart into warring nation states as was the norm.

Just finally make the opening post clearer.
Report melv July 20, 2018 5:21 PM BST
When the pound falls 20% the Russians, the Chinese, the Arabs and every murderous dictator on the planet will fill his boots with property in the UK. That of course includes Euro billionaires which could easily be parity with the pound. Quoting my opening post from June 2016.


Today you are being offered less than a Euro for your pound. 89 cents or a quid with some firms. If things get worse; re hard Brexit or no deal; the pound will fall further.

Are you still saying that Brexit has had no negtive economic impact???????????????????
Report melv July 20, 2018 5:24 PM BST
Today you are being offered less than a Euro for your pound. 89 cents for a quid with some firms. If things get worse; re hard Brexit or no deal; the pound will fall further.
Report Foinavon July 20, 2018 9:17 PM BST
Dear oh dear, those nasty rip-off spiv money changers eh, melv. Shocker. You can do much better if you shop around.

Look, Thomas Cook are offering 1.0927 euros to a pound today,

https://www.thomascook.com/travel-money/buy-euros/

How many pounds to a euro are your merchants offering?

Never mind, if you can't afford a foreign holiday, Brighton is quite nice at this time of the year and there are lots of right-on people there too. Oh and they offer you a pound for a pound so your money will go further.
Report moisok July 20, 2018 10:16 PM BST
I know we are in for one hella of a caning here

but you only have to put a thick book in yer trousers.
Report melv July 20, 2018 10:25 PM BST
Hi Foin at least some-ones interested. Just 3 points.

1. The pound is also down against the dollar.

2. Oil price is fixed to the dollar which adds to massivly to the orices that will rise. Oh I know with a falling pound the stock market will rise, and house prices will rise in London and exports will do well. I am delighted for anyone benefiting. Most people will simply find that their shopping bills go up.


3. I hope all this talk of hard Brexit and "No deal" is just sabre rattling and brinkmanship on both sides of the negotiations. Because if there are serious fears about either of these outcomes the pound is going to fall much further and there will be more price rises,  less spending, more closures and more borrowing.
Report moisok July 20, 2018 10:35 PM BST
and the eu are going to pay 250 billion for playing that card - oh yeah??
Report melv July 21, 2018 3:36 AM BST
Thanks Foin.


Look, Thomas Cook are offering 1.0927 euros to a pound today,


In June 2016 I predicted Euro Pound parity. I stick at one Euro and a penny for a pound. However this assumes things are going to get better from here on in. What does better mean? I do not know. I think we are going to get closer and closer to "No deal" which means that things are going to get worse and worse. Which means the pound will fall and fall and fall.

Unless you know better my dear Foin. Do tell me precisely what is going to get better? What precisely is going to be in place rather than no deal.


You might say that the EU will accept that we can have EU privileges and not have freedom of movement. ( Because this whole thing is about immigration isn't it and all that Brexit fully understands is no more immigrants ...innit") How can we have that when the EU have stated clearly and categorically from the start and ever since that we cannot have and will not get that.
Report Foinavon July 21, 2018 2:36 PM BST
Hi Melv,
Good grief, you have been up late mulling this over, you must be tired today.
We have a floating rate currency which means it goes up and down according to the whims of the market. Traders take into account a myriad of factors, not least piggy-backing on short term trends let alone the state of Brexit negotiations. The pound has been allowed to drift for a while now and it's hardly surprising given the vast amount of quantitative easing that has taken place since 2008.
A floating rate currency is better for us than having a fixed rate peg to gold or another currency as we have discovered to our cost in the past. The two massive devaluations made by the Wilson government were costly because of our peg to the USD. Black Wednesday (so called) was because of our unsustainable peg to the DM in the ERM.
If your currency is pegged and speculators such as Soros spot a weakness they will exploit it to the extent that it costs the treasury tens of billions trying to support a lost cause.
Look at what currency union has done to some of the euro states. Without a separate floating rate currency, they can't devalue or increase interest rates in order to realign their economy, the only recourse is competitive deflation which has led to massive youth unemployment and a brain drain of their best and brightest. Not something we want here. Greece, as you know, is in a debt prison with no way out, a warning to the others including France.

Well, I've probably bored you to death so I'll give it a rest and reply to your other points later.
Report Foinavon July 21, 2018 2:48 PM BST
2. Oil price is fixed to the dollar

Yes, that's true but being a commodity its price fluctuates according to supply and demand. Trump, bless him, has asked the Saudis to increase production because the price is getting too high, it's a political issue as is energy taxation on the consumer.
One good thing is that due to fracking, the USA is not far off being self-sufficient in energy. Without this, world energy prices would be higher. Russia supplies much of mainland Europe's energy and a new gas pipeline is being installed across the Baltic to Germany. Do you think this is a good thing to be so beholden to Putin? I know it works both ways but best not fall out with the chap eh?
Report Foinavon July 21, 2018 3:04 PM BST
3. I hope all this talk of hard Brexit and "No deal" is just sabre rattling and brinkmanship on both sides of the negotiations. Because if there are serious fears about either of these outcomes the pound is going to fall much further and there will be more price rises,  less spending, more closures and more borrowing.

The EU is a political racket for the bureaucratic elites, we are best out of it. It's also a free-trade area of which we are not a principal bebeficiary having a massively negative balance of payments. We and the EU are WTO members and could trade under WTO rules should they deny us a free-trade deal. It looks like they will do this as we can't be seen to be benefitting from leaving else the whole edifice will collapse in short order.

The EU bureaucracy do not care about ordinary citizens as we have already seen in the case of Greece, Ireland and much of southern Europe.To them, the project is all consuming so they won't mind the economic setbacks of a bad deal with the UK for their own citizens if they can be seen to be teaching us a lesson. It's really down to careful preparation on our part and the hope that Merkel and Macron will take the situation in hand and limit the willful damage caused by Brussels.
Report Foinavon July 21, 2018 3:07 PM BST
By the way, I think that a Corbyn government will do far more damage to our currency and economy than Brexit ever could.
Report Foinavon July 21, 2018 3:12 PM BST
. ( Because this whole thing is about immigration isn't it and all that Brexit fully understands is no more immigrants ...innit")

I've replied to this point before but I'll do it again.
It's true that Brexit appears attractive to xenophobes but it's a logical fallacy to then say that those who voted leave are xenophobes. I've seen some well educated people recite your line which only goes to show that education doesn't always equate to the ability to think.
Report melv July 26, 2018 3:29 PM BST
Dear Foin.It's true that Brexit appears attractive to xenophobes. I agree. I am  not going to waste my time speculating about the percentage. Its just my subjective feeling about human nature that give me the impression that it is enough to swing the vote to the result we got...…………….Leave.

I know all you Brexit Nonxenophobic Geniuses who appreciate all the benefits of immigration saw all this mess coming and didn't mind voting for it. It would be an admirable thing if you owned it. It just does not add up IMO but thats just me.


We can't be seen to be benefitting from leaving else the whole edifice will collapse in short order. The (EU) project is all consuming so they won't mind the economic setbacks of a bad deal with the UK for their own citizens if they can be seen to be teaching us a lesson.
  I wouldn't phrase it like this. But to keep it simple I agree. So Foin do you think the EU will roll over when Boadicea  May makes her demands. If not what do you think the chances of a hard Brexit are? If it is a hard Brexit what do you think will happen? And are you bovvered? I am. My prediction is every single problem will all be blamed on Europe and this country will end up even more xenophobic than it already is.

Nobody will giveafu ck that we asked to join the club and we demanded to leave.


Sorry about the delay in respoding. Thid heat is knocking me out.
Report moisok July 26, 2018 4:46 PM BST
I am just thinking of those you welcome thru the open doors of this country who assaulted that 3 year old the other day.

Plenty more of that type already here with more to come

hope this helps

oh sorry I have court a phobia so wot I say don't count - I apologise
Report melv July 26, 2018 5:28 PM BST
"We need Hard Brexit to stop heinous crime by EU citizens" is certainly some sort of phobia.

So that's no one from anywhere else to stop heinous crime. Thats no african Brazilian Indian etc etc. Don't forget students and tourists they are bound to be doing doing horrible things here.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOPS  just forgot most child abuse is committed by the childs own family. FK yeah.... families....kick em out.
Report Foinavon July 26, 2018 11:03 PM BST
Hi Melv,
Know what you mean about the heat. It's still like an oven at nearly 11 pm.

I think it's pretty obvious now that the EU are going to keep us in the Customs Union or we will have to walk away. It's proper Brexit or no Brexit, all the soft and cuddly options are out. I rather like it that way but do our politicians have the bottle? Your guess is as good as mine.
I said something like that elsewhere a few days ago, I also said that the elites and their bureaucrats have the power and usually get their way. They might like to retain the veneer of democracy, the thin chocolate coating on the Kitkat but will the EU let them?

I could quote you more Varoufakis (I know you respect him as much as I do) but I would like you to read the book (Adults in the Room). Even just the epilogue is an eye-opener and worth the price of the book. It tells you why he started the democracy in europe movement (DiEM25) and why he wants us to remain.


On the xenophobic votes. I don't know how many there were but probably not as many as you think. How many were put off voting leave by project fear? Quite a lot I should think. Swings and roundabouts we are where we are. I think the drift towards UKIP giving Labour an opinion poll majority will accelerate as Mrs May stumbles along and at some stage the Tories will say enough is enough, she has to go. Interesting times.
Report melv July 27, 2018 1:53 AM BST
I also said that the elites and their bureaucrats have the power and usually get their way. It is Varoufakis's analysis that makes me so confident that you are correct on this. Its all been a very silly Alice in wonderland dance to both bamboozle everyone and to try to say "We respect the electorate and we are doing the best Brexit we can." Liars....  as usual. The politicians have no power. The giant corporations the traders the financiers the merchant banks and the lords and masters of financialisaton have all and the power and the politicians have none.


As I have  said many times. Reform europe from within for the good of the world. I think Yanis is one of the people who says "Most people find  the end of the world  more thinkable than Capitalism changing". I am not so pessimistic. Change is always with us.. IMO.


I despise the Eurocrats too but I am not so upset about them that I want to commit economic political and cultural sucicide.
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 10:44 AM BST
It's proper Brexit or no Brexit, all the soft and cuddly options are out. I rather like it that way but do our politicians have the bottle? Your guess is as good as mine.

hopefully reasonable people on both sides will acknowledge that the campaign was fought on the idea (from Leave) that 'a deal would get done'.  Therefore the idea that you base a country's future on what people on a betting site's forum would 'rather like' isn't relevant. 

totally insane to claim there's a democratic mandate for a no deal Exit.  Many (of the Leave coalition which scraped over the 50% mark) were voting to 'take back control' (of immigration) and believed the story that economic disruption would be minimal because 'a deal would get done'.  I have friends who voted Leave and their whole point to me (pre-vote) when I said I thought it was a very risky thing to do, was that 'we'd not see any real change' but would be able to halt Free Movement.  I'm not saying they'd change their vote (if there was another vote) because who knows?  But the idea of crashing out with no alternative plan (STILL) is utter lunacy. 

People who think this is a good idea tend to be on fixed incomes or are internet conspiracy theorists of the sort who think climate change is a hoax or the moon landings were faked.  You know, idiots.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 11:38 AM BST
I very much doubt the country's future is being decided on what any of us on a betting site would like. Melv picked out the relevant bit in my meanderings, what I would like and what will happen are not necessarily the same.
Can we claim to live in a democracy just because we have a vote?
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 11:56 AM BST
the very relevant bit - I think we all agree - is the nature of our future relationship with the EU and whether that (relationship) reflects some sort of compromise between what people have voted for and what they thought they were voting for.

What they voted for:  Leave the EU.

What they thought they voted for:  anyone who makes very specific claims on behalf of 'the people' on this matter should not be trusted. 

My own opinion - 48% of people voted Remain and as that implies no change it's a uniform bloc of opinion. 
Those who voted for change - 52% - were (to different degrees) sold various future scenarios.  Many people who voted Remain believed the 'leaders' of the campaign that economic disruption would be minimal.

Is this untrue?  Did all people wanting change vote for a no deal Brexit?  Was that the basis of the campaign?
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 11:57 AM BST
Many people who voted Remain believed the 'leaders' of the campaign that economic disruption would be minimal.

Change Remain in the sentence.  Should read voted to Leave

Sorry.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 2:51 PM BST
Taking back laws, money and control of borders and trade policy was said or implied by both sides in the run up to the referendum, especially "Project Fear" which assumed a worst case scenario and then some. Leaving to trade on WTO terms is not  the worst case, the EU disrespecting the terms and the spirit of WTO in order to punish us would be worse and project fear is based on that.
We have no choice but to wait until the politicos come to some sort of decision over what will happen next March. The bluster will continue when they return from holiday.
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 3:03 PM BST
Sorry, your guesses about the future are not interesting to me.  I was asking about your view of the coalition which voted to leave.  you kind of skipped the spirit of my question which was about the campaign and the pushing of the idea that there'd be a deal.

As you've ignored the point I'll take it you agree but wont say so - some people voted leave expecting minimal economic disruption?
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 3:11 PM BST
do you think it's right that 48% wanted no Economic disruption (Remain) and some (many?) of the Leave voters believed the idea that there'd be a deal

Boris Johnson, the week after the referendum, used the exact phrase:

“British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market.

He's one of the leaders of the Leave Campaign and he says - then in 2016 - that there will continue to be access to the signle market (and that it's sensible).  So we both agree that represents the wishes of a portion of the Leave vote, and we therefore agree there's NEVER BEEN a majority for a No Deal Brexit.

I know this wont change anything - just interested in seeing if people will accept that they're acting on the basis of a minority
view; having spent two years claiming 'will of the people' type justifications.  Are people hypocrites or not, is my question.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 4:06 PM BST
No, I don't accept your argument. A majority voted leave despite being told there would be massive disruption.
The massive disruption argument is also speculative, your guesses about the future don't interest me either.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 4:16 PM BST
What Johnson said after the vote had no influence on the result, why is that hard to understand?
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 4:20 PM BST
A majority voted leave despite being told there would be massive disruption.

You're not claiming they believed the massive disruption story though, are you?  (some may have, and voted despite their agreement with the idea)
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 4:22 PM BST
What Johnson said after the vote had no influence on the result, why is that hard to understand?

it's not.  it's easy to understand.

I was talking about what people had voted for in terms of economic disruption - he is reassuring people in the wake of the surprise result - that what has been voted for will not see a huge change.  Hence the comments about market access.
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 4:32 PM BST
people were successfully persuaded of the idea that massive economic disruption caused by leaving was 'project fear'

thus it follows that they didn't expect massive disruption to actually happen because we leave.  meaning...

...if there is massive disruption, that would be something they HAVEN'T voted for. 

See? 

And - one of the two main devices used (by Leave) to rubbish the idea that there might be massive disruption was to claim 'a deal would get done'.  (The other was the general idea that you, the people, know better than the 'experts'.  Expert has successfully been made to be a dirty word.).

So.  Part of the problem - for the 'will of the people brigade' is that the future is here.  There's no more campaign and the people who were led to vote for what they voted for now represent a different problem.  They now need to be brought to the view that what's about to happen is someone else's fault (because it's not what they voted for).  Hence the shift - from people like Johnson - to talk up No Deal as if it's a reasonable fall back.  When they never attempted to get votes on that basis (obviously they'd have lost).

I understand this is politics and how it works.  Just saying, if you don't accept that what is being delivered has never had a majority then I think you're making one or two leaps of logic to justify to yourself what's being done.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 4:32 PM BST
That's what they were told by the highest officials in the land. It was brave of them to go out and vote leave in the face of that and their vote should be respected.
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 4:36 PM BST
so you're saying the Leave Vote believed the message of Remain Campaign?

Laugh
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 4:36 PM BST
people were successfully persuaded of the idea that massive economic disruption caused by leaving was 'project fear'

How do you know that, have you asked them all? More disingenuous speculation on your part.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 4:40 PM BST
They voted leave despite the message of the remain camp, BBC commentators, the Chancellor, the Governor of the BOE and the Government literature stuffed into their letter box. A brave vote and a stand for what they wanted.
Report bigpoppapump July 27, 2018 4:43 PM BST
and there was no such thing as the Leave Campaign?

you ignore the point made in good faith that the idea (of economic disruption) was successfully rubbished?  You want to go personal - 'have I asked them all'  ?  what's the point of that sort of debate?
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 4:48 PM BST
I have answered your comment, disingenuous speculation. see also my later post.
Report melv July 27, 2018 6:42 PM BST
Dear Foin and Bigpoppa. I am pleased to announced that this is an historical document and can be researched as such. In June 2016 I posted as can be seen on the OP.

Now look what you get. With 2/3 of MP’s as “Stay” they will only pass Brexit- lite legislation when the treaty is ratified. Which will probably take 10 years. I doubt you will notice the difference.


I doubt you will notice the difference. I could not find anyone who questioned this. No "rubbish there will be a massive difference it will be much worse."

And Except for Boris Johnson nobody said "Rubbish there will be a massive difference everything will be amazing and brilliant after Brexit"


Now I am saying that there are extremely powerful vested interests that will simply not allow us to severely damage both our own and the Economy of Europe. These interests have miles more power than "The People" or our MP's. I think via the civil service and other powerful advisers these vested interests are integrated into parliament so its a more difficult to separate the financialisers and the state.


or as Yanis Varoufakis puts first we came off the gold standard and put our currency in the hands of the dollar. Now with the collapse of the dollar standard the entire planet is now in the hands of the financiers (And IMO in the age of debt bondage). There is no "global" that we can sail to and escape financialisation. Never  mind we are not going to be allowed to try it.
Report Foinavon July 27, 2018 10:45 PM BST
You have been remarkably consistent, melv and your prediction may well come to pass.
I was prepared to give Mrs May the benefit of the doubt but since Chequers, I am starting to see the Conservatives as the enemy even though I voted for them last time. This could be bad news for them as I doubt I'm alone with such thoughts. Don't be misled, I do not therefore regard Labour as a friend, far from it. If I have no one to vote for, then I must abstain or spoil my paper next time.
Report melv August 6, 2018 6:54 AM BST
Lets hope this talk of hard Brexit is all hot air and sabre rattling full of sound and fury signifying nothing. A negotiating posture. You know saying to the EU "We are ready for No deal, we went through worse than anything you can do us in ww2.... So come and have  ago if you think you're hard enough."

The plan being the EU give us something that allow us to claim victory and win the European cup against the Germans.


"Angerlands coming home its coming  la la la." Oh the mythology being sung in fairy tale fantasy land.

The alternative is that Europe just stick to what they have always said. "You cannot cherry pick you cannot have any of the advantages of free trade without free movement of labour"

" Its not personal we are not trying to punish you. If we give you the advantages you demand then every nationalist group in the EU will demand to cherry pick advantages for themselves and the EU is destabilised to say the least."

For all you no deal loving nutters who are rolling your sleeves up with relish. This is what I said a the very moment of Brexit.

When the pound falls 20% the Russians, the Chinese, the Arabs and every murderous dictator on the planet will fill his boots with property (and companies) in the UK. That of course includes Euro billionaires which could easily be parity with the pound. So good Olde England will be mostly owned by Muslim billionaires. And all you patriots will get is over priced housing in the South East. Worth it? For what? What did you really think you would get? Exemption from the Human rights Act?.

Now its being predicted that if we do not shut thefu ckup about hard Brexit soon the pound will drop far below the euro and head towards parity with the dollar. We should call ourselves Pound land stacking up and selling ourselves off cheap as chips.

Will you please at least take responsibility for what you voted for and stop blaming everyone else. Its not a very brave and noble bulldog look is it. Blaming others for your own actions.


My bet is that a form of words will be cobbled together so that both sides can claim victory. Bingo! or should I say BINO but no beano.
Report Foinavon August 6, 2018 4:19 PM BST
What will be will be, melv. I have no power to change anything, how about you?
As the saying goes, Keep calm and carry on.

I personally do not deny what I voted for and I would vote leave again were another referendum called.
Report Foinavon August 6, 2018 4:27 PM BST
As usual with negotiations, both sides need to claim victory in some way. Whatever the final outcome there will be a form of words which will allow this. The odds in favour of no deal will appear to increase as deadlines approach, such is the nature of things, but there will be a deal barring accident so I would put the true odds of leaving on WTO terms at no more than 20%.
Report melv August 7, 2018 6:13 PM BST
What will be will be, eh Foin. Boris is making a big power play and he is using the Trump play book He is capable of doing a trump. I fear the lights are going out. I love this song for you lot who think an internationalist socialist cannot be patriotic.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKaJ4b0XYmI


For the light and the European enlightenment. God bless us. God help us. Stop the darkness. The clouds are turning grim.
Report melv August 8, 2018 7:42 AM BST
Its going to take this aspect of the Brexit con generations for the penny to drop.

This from Spyker.

I'm truly shocked by this story - who'd have thought that Denmark, a country in the E.U (but not the Eurozone) had the sovereign powers to pass such a law banning the burkha? I thought Europe and the hated Court of human rights made all this sort of stuff impossible? Just what has been stopping us passing laws such as this all these years? Something's not right here but i can't thunk what it is........


Ace post Spyker. Yes we have always been in full control of our laws and our borders and could have had more immigration controls as other EU nations do.
Report melv August 8, 2018 8:31 AM BST
Here we go. If you really are interested in facts. Or truth. Just google.


Does the UK control its own borders?


Check your own facts if you are interested in truth. If you are interested in having your prejudices confirmed . Fill your boots on here.

Wasting my keyboard on the Trumpites on here. Nevermind the Borismoggwallahs.
Report melv August 8, 2018 8:31 AM BST
Its going to take this aspect of the Brexit con generations for the penny to drop.

This from Spyker.

I'm truly shocked by this story - who'd have thought that Denmark, a country in the E.U (but not the Eurozone) had the sovereign powers to pass such a law banning the burkha? I thought Europe and the hated Court of human rights made all this sort of stuff impossible? Just what has been stopping us passing laws such as this all these years? Something's not right here but i can't thunk what it is........


Ace post Spyker. Yes we have always been in full control of our laws and our borders and could have had more immigration controls as other EU nations do.
Report melv August 24, 2018 2:00 PM BST
Just an update.


Here's the truth in this post truth era. Labour say "we respect the result of the referendum. [b]We are leaving the EU.[/b]"

However if there is a clear, obvious and total change in public opinion then Labour will revue its position.



Now this is Melv speaking .IMO there is no clear, obvious and total change in public opinion . Yet.


Too many people are too proud to say they were conned. And cannot bring themselves to think "I did not vote for this mess" When actually its the only thing they did vote for. IMO.
Report gutfeeling August 24, 2018 7:56 PM BST
Enjoy Melv :)

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/08/23/sweaty-and-terrified-raab-fumbles-his-brexit-no-deal-announc
Report melv August 24, 2018 9:22 PM BST
Wow. Thanks Gutsy. An excellent addition to this historical document. I said historical not hysterical.

I'll leave the hysteria to Burt06 and his fanboys.


PLEASE MAKE THIS BREXIT AS HARD AS POSSIBLE

Next they will tell us that all 17 million Brexit voters  are full of such  suicidal contradictory impossible nightmarish fantasies.
Report gutfeeling August 24, 2018 9:31 PM BST
Have another my good man.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1032576458642915328
Report melv August 24, 2018 9:46 PM BST
Britian would be more bureaucratic. The papers are replete with new regulatory regimes, doubling up of registration and extra processes for British business and consumers.

This is another one that it will take brexiteers decades to get into their brains.


They have not a clue, not an iota of an inkling that the EU is there to make things easier. Read my lips the EU is an entity that creates simplicity. Without the EU trading is immensely complicated. Without the EU you will find out what difficult means.

Oh I know I know I know. If things do get extremely difficult.


IN THE WARPED BREXIT BRAINS IT WILL ALL BE THE FAULT OF EVERYONE ELSE.........EXCEPT THOSE WHO VOTED FOR IT>.. YES YOU LOT THATS WHOSE FAULT IT WILL BE.
Report melv August 24, 2018 9:47 PM BST
Thanks again Gutsy. I'm signing off now. Night night everybody.
Report tanglefoot August 24, 2018 10:08 PM BST
Is Melv, Mrs May
Report gutfeeling August 25, 2018 11:48 AM BST
A new one for you Melv.

http://sbit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SBIT-A-Crisis-Looming-Aug-2018-Brexit-and-British-Outbound-Tourism.pdf
Report melv August 26, 2018 11:16 AM BST
Thanks Guts. Yep all the details that this lot on here are just  waving away. As if they know anything or understand anything. And indeed are in a position to take any responsivity at all for the mess they want to make worse.

Thanks for the latest of thousands of details that have to be dealt with. 25,000 sabbatical workers liable to lose their job and the firms they work for liable to fold in hard Brexit.



http://sbit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/SBIT-A-Crisis-Looming-Aug-2018-Brexit-and-British-Outbound-Tourism.pdf
Report melv August 26, 2018 11:16 AM BST
And indeed are in a position to take any responsibility at all for the mess they want to make worse.
Report melv August 29, 2018 5:10 PM BST
Hope the idealistic dream isn’t lost for ever and the whole thing falls apart into warring nation states as was the norm.


That did not take long. We are not even out yet and there's war between English and French fishermen.

What fun eh???? back to the old days. Soooooooooooooooooo worth it.
Report melv August 30, 2018 7:48 PM BST
Woke up this morning to very positive front page headlines on The Times. Telegraph and the express.

Barnier says the EU "is prepared to offer a partnership with Britain such as has never been with a third party country".
there

Cheers from Brexiteers all round.


Me too winwinwin win.

Looks like the Norway model. Quoting back to me in 2016 [b]" they will only pass Brexit- lite legislation when the treaty is ratified. Which will probably take 10 years. I doubt you will notice the difference.
[/b]
Brexit light was what we called soft Brexit in them days. Sounds like soft Brexit to me. That'll do nicely

I am amazed; amazed that we are only going to be a couple of months late if this is true. I woz wrong . Maybe.


Barnier also said "Single means market single market with its 4 principles; the UK cannot be allowed a competitive advantage" Still cheering lads?????????


Also there are still problems with the Irish border Barnier tells us. Maybe things will take a little bit longer as I thought.
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