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Burt06
25 May 16 16:24
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 2,187 | Blogger: Burt06's blog
no 'weighting'

no malarkey

no only asking graduates

http://www.pollstation.uk/eu-referendum/poll/

and uk ip address can vote once

we are leaving the buildingCool
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Pause Switch to Standard View latest EU poll - 82% leave
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Report Burt06 May 25, 2016 4:25 PM BST
oh and more than 60,000 votes cast

not the usual 800 grads
Report Burt06 May 25, 2016 4:26 PM BST
and the facebook poll is 1.4 million votes cast

1 million out

and just imagine all the older mob that dont use facebook

which way u think they gunna voteGrin
Report Burt06 May 25, 2016 4:28 PM BST
and 2 private polls of labour voters have both shown 70% will vote out

thats 7 milion, then 4 million ukippers, only need just over 4 million from the restCool

wont be a problemCool
Report InsiderTrader May 25, 2016 4:32 PM BST
And all the time the price on staying in shortens Sad

Are the leave campaign going to release any reports based on how bad the Eurozone is doing, how much waste there is in the EU, how undemocratic the EU is, how another recession in the Eurozone will lead to its breakup according to Credit Suise?

Why are the leave campaign coming out with nothing when they have been pushing for this referendum for years???!!!

Either this have a rabit up their sleave for the next 4 weeks or this is just going to be a complete waste of time until the other countries start to pull out.
Report Burt06 May 25, 2016 4:36 PM BST
tbf they are been denied a lot of air time

and the campaign proper starts next week

go to any of the grassroots meetings though - all standing room only

the one boris was at other day in york of all places was inundated

r1gged polls are an attempt to demoralise us - wont workCool
Report DIE LINKE May 25, 2016 4:40 PM BST
BurtO6 Aka Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf Laugh
Report subversion May 25, 2016 5:12 PM BST
online polls = f*cknut magnets Laugh
Report detraveller May 25, 2016 5:16 PM BST
I don't see how the exit can happen. The americans said pretty clearly that brits should stay. Any person who thinks Britain can leave EU is an idiot. They are just not allowed to. Period.
Report Loddy May 25, 2016 5:17 PM BST
I was surprised to see that the latest yougov and ICM polls had them neck and neck. Only been looking at the odds and they have been going one way. Any reason why these polls have been dismissed so readily?
Report subversion May 25, 2016 5:25 PM BST
Loddy
I was surprised to see that the latest yougov and ICM polls had them neck and neck. Only been looking at the odds and they have been going one way. Any reason why these polls have been dismissed so readily?


its easy to explain. online polls = f*cknut magnets Laugh
Report Burton-Brewers May 25, 2016 5:39 PM BST
Any reason why these polls have been dismissed so readily?

they don't have a very good record recently
Report Burt06 May 25, 2016 5:40 PM BST
u wanna try reading the caveats about weighting and 'friday night voters' etc etc

a right load of old bollux
Report Burt06 May 25, 2016 5:43 PM BST
As is often the case, ICM’s poll is actually less interesting than Martin Boon’s commentary that accompanies it – Martin’s response to the polling errors of last year has been one of the most candid and interesting of the pollsters, if occasionally one of the most pessimistic. In his article today he writes about what he considers to be the bleak future for phone polling given how people use the telephone these days, but also writes about the problems ICM have encountered moving most of their EU referendum polling to online.

Specifically Martin writes about how when ICM set online surveys live on Friday nights they get a rush of fast respondents that are skewed towards Leave. These entirely fill some of the demographic quotas set for the poll, meaning there is no room for the slower responding Remain respondents. To tackle this ICM have made two changes – one is to their sampling (they will spread it across the whole weekend, rather than opening it fully on Friday), the other is to weight respondents by how quickly they respond. According to Martin’s commentary the overall effect of this is to improve Remain’s relative position by four points.

I should point out (as Martin does in his article) that this is very much an issue to do with the way ICM carry out their online polls. Other online companies won’t necessarily do things the same way or face the same issues. I can only speak confidently about YouGov’s systems, but I know YouGov’s don’t invite respondents to specific surveys, they have a system that sends invites to respondents automatically, ensuring a constant flow of respondents into YouGov’s system. This means when people click on their invite (be it immediately, after a few hours, or days later) they are sent into whatever YouGov surveys are open at the time and need someone matching their demographics – hence when YouGov surveys go live they get a mixture of both fast respondents and slower respondents, who may have actually been invited before the survey was even written.

There was also a new contribution to the ongoing mystery of the gap between online and telephone polls on the EU referendum, this time from Prof Pat Sturgis (the Chair of the recent BPC/MRS inquiry into the polling error) and Prof Will Jennings (who served on the inquiry). It can be read in full here, but Pat and Will conclude that “While there are of course many caveats required here, this comparison suggests that the true picture may lie somewhere between the two modes, possibly somewhat closer to online. At the very least it suggests a good deal of caution is needed before concluding that one method is right and the other wrong. That will only be known for sure on June 24.”

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

or in other words they aint got a scooby
Report Loddy May 25, 2016 5:52 PM BST
Everyone I know over a certain age is voting out so you would think that would show a disadvantage for the out campaign in online polls. Makes no sense.
Report subversion May 25, 2016 5:54 PM BST
Specifically Martin writes about how when ICM set online surveys live on Friday nights they get a rush of fast respondents that are skewed towards Leave. These entirely fill some of the demographic quotas set for the poll, meaning there is no room for the slower responding Remain respondents

f*cknut magnets Laugh
Report bongo May 25, 2016 6:04 PM BST
My father has decided to vote the way his offspring will vote, based on they will be living with the consequences longer than him, so he has canvassed opinions from his children and grand-children.
The results from the five were:
3 Remain
1 Leave ( me )
1 None of Your business ( who is the smartest person I know )

So that's 4:1 with 1 unstated in favour of the compulsory transfer of public funds to rich people, mainly agricultural land owners, a high salary EU civil service, and a misplaced ideology that we are all equal and if we are not convergence funding will ensure that we are ( eventually, as it's had no effect so far ).
Report dave1357 May 25, 2016 6:26 PM BST
OP thinks a poll that states 82% leave is credible.  I hope OP plays on the exchange as, with that kind of judgement, he must be a dripping roast.
Report ZenMaster May 25, 2016 6:35 PM BST
Bongo

Are those you mention in your family academics?
Corbyn followers?
Travel throughout the EU zone regularly?
Suffer Farage toxicity?
Report TheBaron May 25, 2016 6:42 PM BST
The only hope for the outers is that the young are too apathetic to vote...if not they're fooked.

A low turn out would favour leave so keep an eye on the weather for the 23 June.  Bad weather could be the deciding factor.
Report bongo May 25, 2016 6:54 PM BST
Hi zenmaster
One hates the leave campaigners, calls them a-holers, so Farage toxicity ( but they won't be in charge after the vote, it's not a referendum on changing the government, we have GEs for that )
Another is an academic ( good call ), occasionally travels to Austria
The third has built a business she wants to sell, and mainly wants the stability - even though non-EU Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are currently more stable than the EU members and have been for 6 years.

It is rather sad that immigration is a referendum issue, and a-holes have decided it is, when it is not the question on the ballot. It's not even a referendum on leaving the Single Market or the Common Aviation Area as those pillocks from Ryanair and Easyjet think, because those are open to a mix of both non-EU and EU members. It is purely and simply a referendum on leaving the EU, which means only those things made compulsory by EU membership, because that is the question on the ballot.
We leave, and we take back control of farm policy, fisheries, home affairs and justice, and cut the net contribution by 1 day's GDP.
Report InsiderTrader May 25, 2016 8:22 PM BST
bongo,

You need to talk to these people and explain what is going on. Explain the situation to them. Everyone would vote out if they were presented with the facts as to how bad the EU and the Euro have been for the private citzen.

Even the diehand Euro-zealots like united biscuits and erratay would change their minds if someone had the time to explain the real facts to them. At the moment people like them are like sponges soaking up the government propaganda like loyal subjects questioning nothing.
Report InsiderTrader May 25, 2016 8:23 PM BST
*diehard
Report Burt06 May 26, 2016 1:44 PM BST
they are useful idiots
Report Shab May 26, 2016 2:16 PM BST
A simple quote I use to undecideds: If the EU worked, why are half of the young people in southern Europe unemployed?
Report ZenMaster May 26, 2016 2:50 PM BST
What has the EU done for the Spanish?
Why are the Spanish youth heading to the UK to improve their prospects?
Spain is in the EU and on it's knees.
The UK is not, but apparently will be if it leaves the EU.
Barmy.
Report Burt06 May 26, 2016 9:39 PM BST
the euro has been great for germany

shiit for the rest
Report treetop May 26, 2016 9:51 PM BST
A low turn out would favour leave so keep an eye on the weather for the 23 June.  Bad weather could be the deciding factor.

I can already sense the response from Cameron and the EU if the vote goes against them now !
Report Burt06 May 26, 2016 11:31 PM BST
its already over

just a question of how nig the brexit landslide is
Report sageform May 27, 2016 8:36 AM BST
the main reason that we are doing better than most other EU countries is that we have managed to opt out of many of the labour rules that other EU countries still have. Look at what is happening in France now with mass strikes cutting off energy supplies, nothing open in the streets of Spain from 2pm until 5pm etc. No wonder they have zero or negative growth. We have managed to escape half of their restrictive practices by negotiation, lets get rid of the other half by leaving.
Report ZenMaster May 27, 2016 9:06 AM BST
No mention of the Euro sage?
Surely not joining the Euro has been the largest benefit to the UK.
Those poor countries in the Euro unable to devalue when it becomes uncompetitive = higher inflation and reduction in growth.
Report spyker May 27, 2016 10:02 AM BST
the main reason that we are doing better than most other EU countries is that we have managed to opt out of many of the labour rules that other EU countries still have

And yet pretty much every other country in Europe (certainly G7) has a much higher productivity than the uk - in other words per worker they produce more for less . Imagine how much 'better' we'd be doing if we had that productivity!

From Sep 20125

The figures underscore the challenge for the chancellor, George Osborne, who has made raising the UK’s poor productivity growth a priority. On the latest estimates, only Japan in the G7 performed worse than the UK last year in terms of output per hour worked. The UK was behind France, Germany and the US by 32-33 percentage points.


Grr those hard working Europeans etc making us look bad grrrr grrrr grrrr.
Report InsiderTrader May 27, 2016 10:07 AM BST
How are they measuring 'productivity'?
Report treetop May 27, 2016 12:53 PM BST
spyker,'twas ever thus as  I recall, Germany knocked spots off us for decades re productivity.Our car factories and heavy industry was always a model for restrictive practices.
Report Loddy May 27, 2016 3:25 PM BST
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/05/26/questions-raised-anomalous-brexit-polls-showing-massive-leads-remain/

I am getting the feeling more and more that the polls/odds are at odds with public opinion.
Report DIE LINKE May 27, 2016 3:34 PM BST
Some of you chaps must be having the biggest bets of your lives on OUT at 4/1!
Report Loddy May 27, 2016 3:39 PM BST
No its far too serious a matter to be betting on for me.
Report sageform May 29, 2016 11:58 AM BST
Zen, not joining the Euro was certainly a major factor as were a few other major EU policies that we stayed out of such as Schengen and parts of the working time directive. My point was that our relative success (despite the apparent productivity issue that needs further research- are child or unrecorded workers more common in small businesses in other countries?) is due to us opting out of EU rules, not because of them. We are still woefully uncompetitive with most countries outside the EU altogether.
Report ZenMaster May 29, 2016 12:32 PM BST
Agree sage, and as you allude to, tis outside the EU were the growth is being accrued.
The EU is failing many countries and a benefit to few, EU rules are deemed a compromise to all party's but we know that is never the case.
Report sageform May 30, 2016 8:08 AM BST
The only countries that have benefitted from the EU are those that have joined in a poor economic state and been given generous handouts to bring their standards of living up. It worked for a while in Ireland, Spain, Poland etc. but now people from those countries have only benefitted by moving to the UK.
Report potlis May 30, 2016 11:40 AM BST
OUT at 4/1
skimpy when you consider who's doing the counting, all things are possible when government's convince themselves they are in the right, ask Blair.
Report johnizere May 30, 2016 5:12 PM BST
came across this poll on MSN home page.. cast my (leave) 'vote' out of curiosity and this is the 'result'

POLL RESULTS

Do you think Britain should leave the European Union?
66%Yes
24%No
8%Undecided
2%It does not matter to me
Report johnizere May 30, 2016 5:21 PM BST
ps, 18,041 votes.
Report Burt06 May 31, 2016 10:35 PM BST
over 70,000 votesCool
Report Des Pond June 1, 2016 12:14 AM BST

May 27, 2016 -- 3:34PM, DIE LINKE wrote:


Some of you chaps must be having the biggest bets of your lives on OUT at 4/1!


Grin
Imaginary bets don't appear to affect the market very much. Nor does bleating on about how everyone you meet is voting out. To be honest not many people tell me about their voting intentions or give me their opinions on the EU, people usually have other things that they want to talk about. So, where all this animated discourse about the referendum is coming from is a bit of a mystery.

Report Shab June 1, 2016 3:21 AM BST
Some arbing available - most books (including Betfair sportsbook) have leave at 3/1, but can be laid at 3.7 and plenty available.
Report Shab June 1, 2016 3:24 AM BST
and Billy Hills is 16/5
Report Burt06 June 1, 2016 9:06 PM BST
83% nowGrin

82,662 votes

Cool
Report Burt06 June 9, 2016 8:17 PM BST
115,000 votes nowCool
Report Des Pond June 9, 2016 8:42 PM BST
Hey Burt! Where have you been? I have missed your erudite, succinct and measured contributions to the debate! Mischief I was worried that you 'ad done your doe. Laugh
Report Burt06 June 9, 2016 8:54 PM BST
been grafting hard dessie

done 14 str8 days as a favour to the boss to get this building project we doing finished

took the nights off during that time where i work as venue safety but the fookin little polish count that was covering me fooked off home so i had to work most nights as well

fookin knackered

u seen that 40% under price?

gunna be a good night on independence dayCoolGrin
Report Burt06 June 9, 2016 8:58 PM BST
i still posted a bit though

just to let u and some of the others know that they done their doeGrin
Report Des Pond June 9, 2016 9:00 PM BST
Ah,glad yu are doing well. you have a Polish Count working with you? Bit of a comedown for a member of the aristocracy! Has he lost his castle in Krakow, by doing the betfair casino? Grin
Report Burt06 June 9, 2016 9:02 PM BST
he works for the agency

but not no more

useless little count he was anyway

were u serious when u said u had £100 @110/1 on remain vote to be under 40%?
Report Des Pond June 9, 2016 9:07 PM BST
Nah, only joking! Grin i did see that price though, only a few quid there as i remember, anyway better let you get your rest. maybe you need more immigrants so they can get more Polish workers to cover for you, then you won't have to work so late! Mischief
Report thegiggilo June 10, 2016 1:18 AM BST
Seeing these polls I was starting to think there might be some substance but they are much underestimating the ordinary middle class older voters potentially should be bankers for brexit.My mother and father retired tories I thought would vote out are in and even more surprisingly my girlfriends parents retired very well off tories voting in and their siblings and myself.Was very surprised and just from those few relatives alone tells me that when someone has to put that x on the day,relying on Boris Johnson to be perceived as making the country more democratic completle puts voters off..Shocked
Report melv June 10, 2016 9:08 AM BST
Imaginary bets don't appear to affect the market very much. Nor does bleating on about how everyone you meet is voting out. To be honest not many people tell me about their voting intentions or give me their opinions on the EU, people usually have other things that they want to talk about. So, where all this animated discourse about the referendum is coming from is a bit of a mystery.

Agreed. But the prices coming in is a bit scary.
Report Burt06 June 11, 2016 9:13 AM BST
price is only 18/1 nowSad

i swept some up at 40/1 and 29/1 but once that 18/1 goes we talking 10/1Sad
Report Burt06 September 22, 2016 12:02 AM BST
IDIEMYHAIRPINKE 25 May 16 16:40 
BurtO6 Aka Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf



submissive 25 May 16 17:12 
online polls = f*cknut magnets


Come again, suckers...?

LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinShockedShockedShockedGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughShockedGrinLaughLaughCoolCoolShockedGrinLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinShockedShockedShockedGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughShockedGrinLaughLaughCoolCoolShockedGrinLaugh
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinShockedShockedShockedGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughShockedGrinLaughLaughCoolCoolShockedGrinLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughGrinGrinGrinGrinGrinShockedShockedShockedGrinGrinGrinLaughLaughLaughShockedGrinLaughLaughCoolCoolShockedGrinLaugh
Report Burt06 September 22, 2016 11:10 AM BST
IDIEMYHAIRPINKE 27 May 16 15:34 
Some of you chaps must be having the biggest bets of your lives on OUT at 4/1!


YES WE DID

how did you do?LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughCoolDevilConfusedWhoopsGrin
Report mrtopnotch September 22, 2016 2:19 PM BST
BRITISH Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed today that the United Kingdom in its entirety is to take a year out and go travelling in a bid to find themselves, before triggering article 50.

Speaking this morning from the House of Commons, Mrs. May hinted that South America will be the first port-of-call for the country, with Thailand and New Zealand also on the cards.

“We have to stop over to the Falklands and say hello to our long lost cousins,” the leader of the of the Conservative Party opened up, “we can also climb Kilimanjaro, maybe visit Machu Picchu and a few other places that everyone goes to discover themselves. We have to try Ayahuasca.

“India is meant to be great too, but we might want to scratch that journey for obvious reasons”.

The proposal, which was met with hordes of ‘here here’s’ from government ministers, is expected to help the United Kingdom figure out what ‘this whole thing is about’, and develop the nation’s rapport with foreigners, something which has deteriorated rapidly over the past decade.

“We won’t know ourselves when we come back from our year out,” the now very optimistic PM added, “a change is as good as a rest, and boy do we need a nice time out of this rat race, before we trigger whatever article 50 is”.

Britain is expected to fly to Amsterdam on Friday, where it will board a connecting flight to New York, and then on to Rio De Janeiro for a backpacking trip around the Amazon. The sovereign state is due back in September 18th, 2017, but won’t start back to work until a week later due to jet lag and the promise of a few pints with Ireland upon their return.
Report treetop September 22, 2016 7:28 PM BST
Theresa May is applying common sense to the decision,clearly understand that the useless civil service were not prepared for the eventual decision. I do hope Heywood is given his P45 for gross incompetence when she has time to act on that.
Report Burt06 September 28, 2016 9:11 PM BST
does anyone know what has happened to IDIEMYHAIRPINKE and submissive?

run suckers runLaughLaughLaughGrin
Report Burt06 October 19, 2016 12:41 PM BST
IDIEMYHAIRPINKE 25 May 16 16:40 
BurtO6 Aka Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf


Come again?Grin

keep running, suckers.GrinLaughGrinLaugh

LEAVING THE BUILDINGCool
Report jed.davison October 19, 2016 3:35 PM BST
There are some classic conversations with subversion knocking about further down the pages Burt06. To the best of my knowledge he hasn't posted since June 24th. I quite enjoyed skewering him in the build-up to the referendum, but I never got to gloat afterwards. Very distressing.

DIE LINKE is a good lad. He was wrong about this issue, but we've all been wrong about sh1t before.
Report Burt06 February 2, 2017 9:22 PM GMT
ye, subversion scarepered after the vote.
Report Burt06 December 10, 2017 7:52 PM GMT
Pssstttt, IDIEMYHAIRPINKE, how has this thread aged?Grin
Report moisok December 10, 2017 9:13 PM GMT
so much pro eu propaganda but then the eu.  They have several billion euros in their propaganda department

up till recently the guests on the bbc were 78 percent pro and the others might be anti

they have never got over the result and seek to smash brexit

this is from the eu that whinged about being such a happy family

look how we have been treated

treasonmay has sold out
Report Burt06 December 12, 2017 9:00 PM GMT
The way it's all going and been perceived I wonder if Sir Nige will consider making a comeback and sweeping UKIP to power.
Report melv December 12, 2017 11:44 PM GMT
so much pro eu propaganda

Oh yes. You feeling it too?

That's the tide turning. That's the plates moving. That's people realizing what a bad idea Brexit is.

Soon they will ask themselves "Do I really want to bequeath a poorer country to my children and Grandchildren"

And when that sinks in there will be call for a halt to article 50 then a  second referendum with people knowing precisely what they are voting for.

And that's a poorer country and God knows what a tragedy in Ireland.
Report Foinavon December 13, 2017 12:02 AM GMT
Dream on Melv, we are leaving the building.
Report melv December 13, 2017 6:37 AM GMT
We are not "leaving the building" or another fairytale language.

The Irish border means its going to be open borders and everything that follows. Easy movement for a start. So its at least soft soft soft deep and meaningful relationship Brexit.

I am of course now simply remain. Labour need to be get its finger out. Defeat today for the tories would be a good start.
Report sageform December 13, 2017 8:28 AM GMT
Remain would have more credibility if they didn't consist almost entirely of Politicians, civil servants and the media. Name for me any self made businessman in UK who is in favour of remain? All of the ones I have heard or read quotes from are either agnostic (don't think it will make any difference) or pro brexit. Really strong businesses like JCB, Dyson etc. all voted leave.
Report treetop December 13, 2017 11:25 AM GMT
Well said sagey,the vast majority of the Remain clique do appear to have been those that benefited directly from the EU.
Report sageform December 13, 2017 1:26 PM GMT
Not only benefit from it but believe that regulation making and enforcing (or not) is more important than doing something useful like making things. That is why we are in the current impasse. The regulators have to actually be flexible to make Brexit work and most of them are incapable of that.
Report dom888 December 13, 2017 1:38 PM GMT

May 25, 2016 -- 4:40PM, DIE LINKE wrote:


BurtO6 Aka Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf


Comical burt

Report moisok December 13, 2017 2:08 PM GMT
there is a whole swathe of people who rely on the eu for their jobs - journos too  - they all live off the gravy train so why would they not bombard us with propaganda - their snouts will no longer be in the trough when we leave
Report sageform December 13, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
Anyone remember the satirical TV show called the Gravy Train?
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