Well the last day is here, sadly that is, I'm going into the last day with a healthy 37 points profit and dont intend to lose it, not all of it anyways!!
The County Hirdle is a nightmare this year, trawling through it I think maybe Sandsend represents a bit of value, he won a Grade 3 last time with the second (Forge Meadow) going on to win the Redmill, in turn beating Identity Thief who finished fourth in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. Sandsend is 4.7 for a place, 3.75 five places and 3 six places.
The Albert Bartlett is a very hard race for young hurdlers to run in, three miles in heavy going is a big ask for these young horses at this stage of their careers. With Black Op finishing second in the Ballymore then his conqueror Santine looks to be the one to be on, already a winner on heavy going, short but 5.5 and 2.38 the place.
In the big one, Balko Des Flos boosted the form by winning the Ryan Air and I think his conqueroro of last time Road To Respect is the one here. Still only 7, a second season chaser, will love the ground and the distance and is the value here at 15 and 4.3 to place, 2.34 five places.
The Foxhunters could be the race for Foxrock and his new stable, 3.45 to place to 2.34 five places
I would love to see the Pipe team win this and they have a decent chance with their runer but I'm thinking the value here is in Melrose Boy, beaten by Topofthegame (getting 7lbs) was a decent efort last time out with that winner going on to be second in this years Coral Cup, gives Melrose Boy a sporting each way chance here, 25 to win, 6.2 to place to 3.2 six places
Finally, to end the Festival we hyave the Bookies Benefit Grand Annual Chase. Bouvreuil s a tentative choice. On this stiff course the drop back in trip shouldnt hinder the 7 year old has been placed three time at the Festival already and can go well again today. At 4.7 to place to 2.6 six plaxes.
Enjoy the last day its a long time to the next first day.
A decent profit from day one, lets see what day two brings us.
In the first at 1.30 Each way value agsint Samcro is Black Op, jumping will have to hold up but int he place markets we can have 2.82 and 2.04 for four places.
2.10 Black Corton has no class, so everyone ays, the stats are all agsint him but the fact is he deserves his place in this line up and is a nice win price and also 2.8 to place and 2.2 four places, has to be the way to go.
2.50 Le Breuil has been tipped up by HT so the price is shorter than I would like so Topofthegame is the choice at 15 to win, 4.6 to place and 3.9 for five places.
3.30 Doubts about Altior, so lets go Douvan who is a drifting 1.84 to place and 5.7 to win.
4.10 Auvergnat is a chancer selection here at the value 3.4 to place and 2.48 five places.
4.50 Casa Tail is a huge price and could yet be top class, priced to place at 9 and five places 6.4 and six places at 4.3
5.30 Looking no further than Acey Milan at 9.2 and 3.1 to place, 2.56 four places.
Its here again, having made a tiny profit in the win market last year and a large 50 points or so profit in the place market, here shoping for similar success over the next four days.
In the first, The Supreme I'm going win and place on Summerville Boy 1.5 taken for the win and 3.45 the place along with 2.42 for four places, he beat the second fav for this race Kalishikov fair and square and should do so again, should Getabird not handle the course then we should go close.
Next up I'm robbing the place markete again with San Calvados, could be anything this one, a real trailblazer that will have them off the bridle early doors.
In the Ultima at 2.50 Vintage Clouds look too big at 14 and 3.8 and 2.86 five places!
The Champion has to be worth a nibble at Yorkhill who will love the going and is big at 22 and around 3.7 to place and 2.48 four places.
In the 4 miler, Mossback and Ms Parfoir are two against the field.
In the last Testify could improve again and De Plotting Shed looks to have been laid out for this one.
A winner in a point earlier in her career and consistent over hurdles, clearly the best of these over the smaller obstacles but drifitng in the market due to the popularity of Theatre Territory sees the Paul Nichols trained mare Jessbers Dream now trading at second favourite and drifting at 7/4 with Sporting Bet and been as high as 3.35 on the exchanges. Jessbers Dream for me.
Robert Walford has found some improvement recently for his lightly raced 5 year old Our Merlin, winning his last two very convincly suggesting that he is well ahead of the Handicapper and can go well again today to deny Tobacco Road. Backed at 2.86 I'm hoping Our Merlin can give me a winner today.
Improving with each race so far this season, close but no cigar in a Conditional Handicap last time out at Catterick over a similar distance and going and with a little more improvement then Manny Owens can get his head in front this afternoon at Doncaster in the 1.00 race. Mr J J ONeil being able to claim his full 7lb allowance also helps. Backed at 5.15 (after being reduction )and at 1.93 to place. The danger is Barton Knoll who although finishing 5th last time out, the fourth from that race has come out and won a Class 1 Listed race at Haydock.
Lawney Hill runs Miss Mayfair in the 2.50 at Huntingdon with Fergus Gregory talking off the equivalent of the 7lb penalty for her facile success at Plumpton a few days ago then she will be very hard to beat today and is sure to go up massively in the ratings when reassessed. The 11/8 with Skybet early doors was the best price here.
Having an impeccable all weather record of four from four including a Listed win and a win in a Class Two at Kempton I'm thinking that at the price available tonight Second Thoughts is a good win and place prospect I've taken 2.64 about the place and 7.6 for the win. The three year olds best piece of form came after winning the Three Year Old All Weather Championship Stakes at Lingfield and finishing second to Harrys Angel in a Group Two at Haydock. A return to the all weather after two modest turf runs will definitely help tonight and a natural step up in distance to a mile is also a big plus. Its a competitive affair but a place is the least I'm hoping for here.
Its a Ladies race I'm interested in this afternoon and Katie O'Farrell has only two winners to her name from 50 rides which is the only negative here, on a positive note one of them was for the Gordon Elliot stable. It does enable her to use a full 7lb allowance though in this 2.35 Fairyhouse race and Elliot seems to have placed this one well in the search for a five timer, four from four so far since swithcing to this stable, three over fences and one over hurdles, susequently the gelding has seen his rating rise from 85 to todays 110 but the way he won a Down Royal Handicap Chase just three days ago suggests that he may not have stopped improving yet. That was a stronger race than this and with Kaite's 7lb claim Poormans Hill is actually better off than in his last race. Eased in the betting from 8/13 to 20/21 is probably because of the jockey rather than form and 2.06 available on betfair and Poormans Hills running mid division in running style may get us 2.4 or so during the race.