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03 Sep 18 12:53
Date Joined: 20 Nov 00
| Topic/replies: 3,610 | Blogger: GoBallistic's blog
Kicks off on thurs

Who do we like this year ?

I've had speculative punts on two from the AFC, Kansas City (36) + Tennessee (75); two from the NFC, Chicago (100) + Arizona (150)

Reasoning variously along the lines of 2nd season QBs and / or new coaching staffs and / or blind optimism

As usual the Patriots are a tempting price play because of how weak their league and conference is although I'll hope for a rocky start like last year before I invest
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Report therhino September 3, 2018 2:24 PM BST
Titans backer signing in as well at 75s Excited Gotta fancy their schedule and can envisage Henry having a breakout year. On the Panthers as well at 70s, receiving corps had a bit of a boost (still not great) but should be better than last year. Be interesting to see what level McCaffrey can reach this season.
Report jedi sophie September 4, 2018 11:07 PM BST
Evening guys.
Signing in for the titans too,huge price,can't resist,way over subscribed now.
Eagles I like for follow up but banged up.
Rams must go well surely.
Jaguar other main bet...

Speculative dig at the BearsExcitedLaughHappy
Literally could not cannot believe the Raiders traded Mack, for 2 lottery tickets,****g nuts...nuts...

Year before last I thought Raiders had a shot until Carr broke leg,million miles off now with a stinking D.
Report jedi sophie September 4, 2018 11:09 PM BST
Bears rumble over Rodgers i may have nicked some value,there D could be scary in time..
Report Puzzman September 5, 2018 7:02 AM BST
Bet365 are offering early cash out on NFL games

"How it works:
Place a pre-match single bet on the Money Line market for any game in the NFL.
If the team you back goes 14 points ahead at any stage during the game, we will settle your bet early as a winner, even if the opposition comes back to win the match."

Anyone got any idea what Buffalo are doing at Quarterback? Was looking at under 6.5 wins but at $1.40 for a long term bet it doesn't appeal.
Report therhino September 5, 2018 11:26 AM BST
The Jags have some absolute jets on both sides of the ball that are young. Norwell a great addition and they are in the weaker AFC. Still not sure about the man at QB though and not sure if I want to buy or not. Wait and see for me, Giants away to start off a banana peel with OBJ back and Barkley could make people forget all about Elliott's rookie season - prodigious talent. Watching him at Penn State last year was box office viewing. One of the most interesting week 1 games imo.
Report nellie1970 September 5, 2018 8:00 PM BST
peterman gets week 1 start for bills.

think ravens will steamroller the bills week one and should cover -7
also really like the titans in week 1 in Miami M/L around evens

two to win superbowl for me VIKINGS OR SAINTS  GL ALL FOR THE SEASON AHEAD
Report GoBallistic September 6, 2018 10:41 AM BST
Main rule changes for this season

- lowering, leading with and making contract on opponent with helmet is out -  applies to everyone including offensive players although most likely to be defensive players getting flagged, 15 yard pen and possible ejection if flagrant.  This may be in part a result of the Ryan Shazier injury

- the catch rule - it's no longer strictly necessary to control the ball all the way to the ground, as soon as you make a "football move" with control it's a catch.  I was in a small minority in that I liked the rule the way it was.  There will be more legit catches now, also more fumbles. And probably no end to controversy once they start arguing what a "football move" is

- a rule change that could affect points spread players - if time has expired after a TD then the extra point won't be required if it doesn't affect the result
Report Phi Gamma Delta September 8, 2018 4:42 PM BST
I really like Minnesota for the Superbowl @ 10/1. A ferocious defense coupled with a 2 headed running back attack and an improvement at qb.

In week 1 the Bills are going with 5 pick Peterman at qb. I'm all over the Ravens.
Report therhino September 11, 2018 6:39 AM BST
Rams gonna be very hard to deal with based on that 2nd half display. Star running back, an O line that gives a solid QB all day, speedy receivers, DPOY and Suh on D with star corners. Sheesh.
Report grayhawk September 11, 2018 12:59 PM BST
Only seem to be lacking an edge rush Rhino....
Report therhino September 24, 2018 9:40 AM BST
Rams to go 16-0 anyone?
Report jedi sophie September 27, 2018 9:32 PM BST
Surely they dispose of the Vikings after there stunningly bad display against Bills.
Literally beyond belief that game was,how bad they were.
Hoping for a routine win,move on,couple of injuries to carry on the D tonight the Rams...
Doubt go 16.0 Rhino bit it would be pleasing I would think from a financial perspective.
Report nellie1970 September 27, 2018 9:47 PM BST
do not think they will go 16-0

fancy them tonight -7 stats against the vikings no team travelling from central time zone to pacific time zone on a thursday night have never won  or covered the spread in 12 years
Report therhino September 28, 2018 12:56 AM BST
They are more than capable of going 16-0 in my opinion but tonight is a banana peel with the injuries to the corners. Quite possibly one of the most loaded teams ever assembled (on paper at least).
Report therhino October 23, 2018 2:44 PM BST
7 weeks in, how y'all see it atm? The Chiefs look amazing, wonder if the QB will hit a wall at some point. Level he is at is incredible, but with that many weapons to throw to kind of hard not to be. AFC Championship looks very much like chiefs vs pats but a long way to go. Rams still out on their own in the NFC, still think injuries might be the only thing stopping them from playing in the big one.
Report jedi sophie October 23, 2018 6:02 PM BST
Going very well the Rams...Injuries there only danger. Maybe Brees in an all out shootout for the Bowl.?

Home field huge,agree looks like Chiefs Pats now but one two injuries changes everything.

Chiefs an incredible watch,were buying money the other day v Bengals.

Houston may keep improving if avoid usual injury car crash.
Report jedi sophie October 23, 2018 6:02 PM BST
Meant shootout to get to the BowlExcitedWink
Report GoBallistic October 23, 2018 8:19 PM BST
I'll be happy to oppose the Rams at the business end of the season.  They have very little playoff pedigree and running backs with a heavy workload during the season tend to run out of gas in January
Report therhino October 23, 2018 9:19 PM BST
Saints schedule very tough from here on in.
Report jedi sophie October 23, 2018 10:23 PM BST
Agreed,tough division,Panthers better value at 4x the price...
Eagles another injury today,there very smashed up now,and not playing well.
Rams for me coasting through games at times,don't see that many of them overworked at all.
There a very short price right now though for me!
Report jedi sophie October 23, 2018 10:24 PM BST
Should be around 5 imo...
Report tobermory October 26, 2018 1:19 AM BST
Before Week 8

4.1 LA Rams 7-0 85 Cinncinati Bengals 4-3
7.0 New England Patriots 5-2 90 Dallas Cowboys 3-4
7.6 Kansas City Chiefs 6-1 95 Atalanta Falcons 3-4
10.5 New Orleans Saints 5-1 120 Detroit Lions 3-3
19 Minnesota Vikings 4-2-1 160 Tennessee Titans 3-4
20 LA Chargers 5-2 170 Indianapolis Colts 2-5
22 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2-1 200 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-3
26 Baltimore Ravens 4-3 210 Denver Broncos 3-4
30 Philadelphia Eagles 3-4 250 Miami Dolphins 4-3
36 Houston Texans 4-3 380 New York Jets 3-4
38 Green Bay Packers 3-2-1 530 Cleveland Browns 2-4-1
44 Carolina Panthers 4-2 600 New York Giants 1-6
50 Chicago Bears 3-3 1000 San Francisco 49ers 1-6
50 Washington Redskins 4-2 1000 Oakland Raiders 1-5
70 Jackonsville Jaguars 3-4 1000 Arizona Cardinals 1-6
80 Seattle Seahawks 3-3 1000 Buffalo Bills 2-5
Report therhino November 5, 2018 11:36 AM GMT
After comfortably handling the Vikings away and disposing of the Rams, New Orleans have a genuine claim to being the best team in the league. A+. Now hold the tie break with the Rams so just need to match them to secure home field through the championship game, may need perfection to do it though when you look at the Rams schedule. For the Saints it is tough throughout.

Those 2 games in 3 weeks against the Panthers at the end look delicious.
Report GoBallistic November 7, 2018 2:58 PM GMT
Given that "defense wins championships" do any of the leading teams in the betting have a top 10 defense ?  Right now I'd say probably not.  There are teams who could possibly move in there with the possible return of one or two key players (Berry and Houston for the Chiefs, Bosa for the Chargers, Talib for the Rams)

Is there any defense dominant enough to overcome their obvious offensive deficiencies ?  Right now the best defense in the league is probably the Bears despite Mack never really getting fully fit so far.  However Trubisky has been a major disappointment - not much progress at all from his rookie year

Maybe the high-powered offenses will be largely unopposed in the playoffs this season
Report therhino November 8, 2018 9:20 AM GMT
Saints take the punt on Dez. Not much of a punt really, can't see much downside unless there is a loss of team harmony. Sure he will be on his best behaviour.
Report wondersobright November 9, 2018 2:28 PM GMT

any of them find a decent D they are gunna absolutely p1ss up

nobody seems to be able to stop anybody though
Report wisewords November 9, 2018 4:40 PM GMT
I'll go Saints
Report grayhawk November 9, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
Goballistic...does that well held term defense wins championship hold up nowadays...yes it was always thus but in todays NFL where each year the new rules invariably seem to be slanted to the offense it's not holding true
Report nellie1970 November 9, 2018 5:54 PM GMT
i am on the saints.hope Dez does not rock the boat in the Big Easy
Report GoBallistic November 9, 2018 7:41 PM GMT
grayhawk, it's the same rules for everyone, just more points in general so most teams are scoring 35 pts instead of 25 and a great defense holds you to 20 instead of 10.  If anything the rule changes might work the other way, whereby the easier you make it to play offense and the harder you make it to play defense, the more it separates defense and anyone can play offense - in last year's playoffs you've got Nick Foles winning a SB
Report therhino November 9, 2018 9:40 PM GMT
Dez Bryant achiilles injury - looks done for season Shocked
Report grayhawk November 12, 2018 8:17 PM GMT
Cooper Kupp done for the year...big loss for the Rams
Report tobermory November 18, 2018 1:53 AM GMT
5.4 LA Rams 9-1 130 Baltimore Ravens 4-5
5.6 New Orleans Saints 8-1 170 Atlanta Falcons 4-5
6.8 Kansas City Chiefs 9-1 200 Indianapolis Colts 4-5
8.4 New England Patriots 7-3 200 Cincinnati Bengals 5-4
11.5 Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2-1 400 New York Giants 2-7
14 LA Chargers 7-2 430 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-6
24 Minnesota Vikings 5-3-1 710 Miami Dolphins 5-5
28 Chicago Bears 6-3 850 Detroit Lions 3-6
36 Carolina Panthers 6-3 1000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-6
36 Houston Texans 6-3 1000 Denver Broncos 3-6
65 Tennessee Titans 5-4 1000 New York Jets 3-7
65 Philadelphia Eagles 4-5 1000 Cleveland Browns 3-6-1
75 Washington Redskins 6-3 1000 San Francisco 49ers 2-8
80 Seattle Seahawks 5-5 1000 Oakland Raiders 1-8
80 Green Bay Packers 4-5-1 1000 Arizona Cardinals 2-7
130 Dallas Cowboys 4-5 1000 Buffalo Bills 3-7
Report tobermory November 18, 2018 1:56 AM GMT
Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...

At last update I posted...

Houston 4-3 were @36. Now 6-3 and still 36.

Colts were 2-5 and 170. Now 4-5 and 200.

Best of all Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75 Plain
Report GoldCupWinner November 18, 2018 9:51 AM GMT
Rams won't be winning any Superbowl without Kupp. Too important of a player for them and their defense is nowhere good enough to compensate for any loss of efficiency on offense.

As stated in another thread I like the Titans at current odds and possibly the Steelers too given their secondary seems to have improved after dropping Artie Burns.
Report therhino November 20, 2018 10:33 AM GMT
I was wondering about the Rams without Kupp as well. 54 points says the offense will be just fine. The defense on the other hand...

Meanwhile, the Saints are making a mockery of the tough schedule. Remaining games as follows: Falcons, @ Cowboys, @ Bucs, @ Panthers, Steelers, Panthers.

Really, I don't know who will be beat them but enough in there one sub-par game and they will drop one. 14-2 or 15-1 looks pretty likely barring something drastic. As they hold the tie break against the Rams, LA prob need to win out to finish on top of the NFC. Their remaining games: @ Lions, @ Bears, Eagles, @ Cardinals, Niners. Game against the Bears looks huge with Chicago sitting pretty to win their division.

Home field is going to be so important, I'd give the edge to whoever has it between the Saints and Rams - LA did enough in New Orleans for me to suggest they have the quality needed to win at home against Brees and co.
Report therhino November 20, 2018 10:36 AM GMT

Nov 17, 2018 -- 7:56PM, tobermory wrote:

Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...At last update I posted...Houston 4-3 were @36. Now 6-3 and still 36.Colts were 2-5 and 170. Now 4-5 and 200.Best of all Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75

Heavyweights just too impressive - they aren't just winning they're clobbering teams. The three teams you mentioned just look like playoff fodder against the likes of KC, Pittsburgh, NE, LA and New Orleans.

Report therhino November 20, 2018 10:53 AM GMT
Just did the math on the big 5, grouped you're getting about 1.32 against the field.
Report wondersobright November 20, 2018 11:56 AM GMT
tobermory • November 18, 2018 1:56 AM GMT
Market doesn't seem to follow results very closely...
Washington were 4-2 @50 to back, now 6-3 and 75

market seems to follow injury news a lot closer than you do
Report tobermory November 20, 2018 7:02 PM GMT
Yes, I didn't realize how many they had lost for the season.

Though I think Rhino is correct that the main thing is people finding it hard to believe that teams like Houston eking out wins are gonna be competitive against what the Top 3 in the market are doing every week.
Report Swardean November 21, 2018 4:38 PM GMT
Rams have had 2 games against Seahawks and another against the packers that really could have gone either way.  So that in itself says they may be vulnerable in any one of game against a half decent side.  Too short imo.
Report tobermory November 26, 2018 12:41 AM GMT
Philadelphia too big @100

If they beat Redskins and Dallas lose to Saints all three will be 6-6
Report jedi sophie December 1, 2018 4:16 PM GMT
Massive massive loss for Chiefs with Hunt being a naughty boy...
Can't win it imo.
Report sewter lives again December 1, 2018 10:28 PM GMT
certainly find out how good Mahomes is now jedi
Report tobermory December 2, 2018 1:55 AM GMT
why are Saints being layed so much tonight Confused

Were 4.1 pre Dallas, settled on 5.1-5.2 the next day but all out to 6.4 now Plain
Report Racingqueen December 2, 2018 6:53 PM GMT
The Kareem Hunt thing was handbags if the video online was all that happened. Drunken shoving around.
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