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themightymac
21 Sep 16 17:54
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Date Joined: 05 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 22,017 | Blogger: themightymac's blog
Teams to bet
and Teams you want to lay??
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Report wisewords September 21, 2016 11:38 PM BST
Carolina Panthers Superbowl Champions 2016/17
Report Basil_the_don September 22, 2016 10:33 AM BST
Happy to lay the Bears and Bills right now, both look very average
Report bigpoppapump September 22, 2016 10:45 AM BST
depends on prices and opposition.

but in general:

Green Bay are probably overrated/overbet so looking to oppose them.  9 win team not 11/12 as they get priced up.
Vikes are solid 9 wins
Lions 8 wins with chance to chase playoffs if GB really struggle.
Bears may be worse than 7 wins I had preseason and have down graded.  Lost their starting QB too for an indefinite period (needs an operation on his thumb).

New England - very good, generally want onside. 
Buffalo are worse than thought - firing the OC despite the defensive probs is crazy. Can see Rex getting fired mid season.
Miami are dog sh1t.  Apparently decent away defeats at Seattle and New England should help prices for a little while.  Loving the idea of opposing them at 1.2x this weekend, for example.
Jets are decent but staring down the barrel of being 1-5 with a brutal schedule.

Cinci - good team but fewer weapons than last year.
Steelers - could be their year (look the class of the AFC so far)
Baltimore - on the rise from last year's 5 wins.  A bit boom or bust on offense - probably worth opposing as hot faves and backing as outsiders versus the Steelers/Bengals.  Will prob pop at least one decent upset.
Brows - obvs sh1t.  Prob win once or twice, hpefully at a long price when I'm on

Indi - one man team and he's in decline without the talent around him or much of a D.  Down to their 6th string CBs already!!  Oppose when the price is right
Tennessee - bad coaches, talented players; don't know what to expect.  7 wins?
Houston. Strong D, lively receiving corp.  Osweiler looks like a one-read slinger.  Looking to oppose 'em when the price is right.  Weak div though so prob win it by default.
Jags - should have improved but not a good start.  Already downgrading them a bit.

Denver - DeMarco Ware injury could be big. Great D though and good running game. Great at winning close games. Wouldn't want to be opposing them at wrong prices (like this Cinci price - need to be mad backing at those prices against Denver imo).
Kansas - should be solid, and unfashionable so I tend to end up with 'em onside.  1.7x home v the Jets for example.
Oakland. Lively offense.  D struggling so far.  Don't know what to make of them.
SanD.  Think they're underrated and therefore often value. Rivers is/has been a top 4 QB for the last 10 years. (TB, PM, Brees and Rivers the big 4, imo)

Cowboys - generally want them onside at odds against.
Skins - already 2-0 opposing them and want it to continue.  Thought NYG might be a bit better than 1.5 this week.
Giants - solid, improving. Price dependent support.
Eagles - much improved.  Dark horse for the div.

Carolina - slightly overrated (15 win season being a weak schedule). Expect 9 or 10 wins.
Tampa - could be solid; more to come from Winston.
Falcons - want to oppose at short prices
New Orleans - improving D; Brees can still do it, dangerous team on their day.

Seattle - offensive line in disarray; Wilson's injury therefore more of a neg. Should beat San Fran but cant be backing 1.25.  Awesome D.
Rams - need a QB quick to unplug things for Gurley. Awesome D.
SF - on the rise but won't crack 7 wins this year. Brutal division.
Arizona - probably the class of the NFC.
Report Jb23 September 22, 2016 11:22 AM BST
Agree with the large part Bigpoppa. Interesting to see you have the Pats as not the class of the AFC despite winning at the class of the NFC without Brady, Gronk, their best O-lineman and Ninkovich. But thats just being pedantic.

I think a Steelers/Patriots AFC Champ game is almost nailed on, they're just so much better than the other 14 teams in the AFC. However I would say that I am leaning towards New England. A 14-2 record is probably needed to guaranteed home field advantage for the playoffs of which I would say the Steelers have a better chance than the Pats purely on the potential banana skin roads games they have;

Patriots (Away games): Browns, Steelers, Bills, 49ers, Jets, Broncos, Dolphins
Steelers (Away games): Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Colts, Bills, Bengals,

That week 7 game in Pittsburgh looks already huge and will more than likely have play off ramifications with head-head records on the line etc

Just my 2 pence
Report bigpoppapump September 22, 2016 11:31 AM BST
no I wouldn't say that was pedantic (this is Laugh).  that's a difference of opinion.

I think NE winning in Arizona without those guys was great - they're a very good team; but I don't think they're as good as the Steelers.  I think NE's D is not as good as some of the other teams in the AFC and they benefit this year from having two very poor divisional opponents.

Week 1 upsets happen; Arizona are better than they played that night and it was still a game decided by a missed FG with the last kick.
Report Jb23 September 22, 2016 11:44 AM BST
Sorry! Ive just realised I have crossed my argument. It should read I am leaning towards Pittsburgh! Wasn't really concentrating when I was typing it out! Apologies aha

Agree with the most part though. Id personally keep NE/Pitt on side in the AFC and take the rest on. Think there is heaps of value in the NFC and I'm willing to take a flier on a few teams like the Eagles, Bucs and ashamedly the Cowboys (providing they can keep around/above .500 for when Romo is back). The talent is there, just the consistency isn't. The NFC looks to be an intriguing conference this season
Report bigpoppapump September 22, 2016 12:42 PM BST
don't think Romo may have played his last game for the Cowboys?  I'm not sure it's a given he goes straight back in, if he can get fit; if the Cowboys are happy with Dak and see him as the man of the future you might see Romo wind down another year or two (if he decides not to retire) somewhere like the Jets.
Report Sudoku_Junior September 22, 2016 10:00 PM BST
Will be taking the pats on tonight at the current prices. Slight overreaction to gronk being available imo, however given he couldn't suit up sunday, I'm expecting him to be severely limited in snaps, albeit will still be a worthy redone target. Belichick won't have Brisset doing things he can't do, he'll get the ball out quickly, they'll lean on Blount and he'll target Martellus Bennet in a mismatch against the texans linebacker corp.

I'm not sold on Osweiler, especially going into foxboro on short week, however this is a dynamic houston offence with miller, fuller and hopkins and i think it will cause problems for the pats D. If I'm the texans I'm dialling up so much pressure on Brisset he won't know which way to turn and get the pats off their gameplan. If they force the patriots to play from behind and get them in 3rd and long situations i think it's going to be a struggle for Brisset to adapt and take the game on his shoulders. The pats have a chance, but for me everything has to go their way for them to get the win. Houston get the win.
Report therhino September 23, 2016 12:22 AM BST
Been impressed by the Steelers as well. Look fantastic to me, and can see the AFC coming down to them and NE like others. Seahawks have been horrible and am not sure how the Cards can be seen as the class of the NFC. Palmer in the championship game last season already forgotten? The Packers have the schedule and the Panthers are the best team, still looking at those two. No reason to think Newton has peaked yet, best player in the league and the roster is stacked with talent.
Report bigpoppapump September 23, 2016 12:43 AM BST
Well so far the Packers limped past the Jags and lost to the Vikes. Their offense looks like it did last year. The Cards beat em twice late last year. They get a mention because of their rep but they're not a top team. Didn't win the div last year. Having a second placed schedule is nice , but isn't evidence for their quality.

Cards v Panthers is opinion: guess we'll find our when the games get played.
Report therhino September 23, 2016 1:14 AM BST
I agree they are not in the top group, and if they don't finish top 2 in NFC at the end of the regular season then they have been massively over rated. Having a good look at the Cards schedule now and it is friendly enough, so will be right there I suppose. Superbowl match up I most want to see is Steelers v Panthers.
Report wisewords September 23, 2016 1:14 PM BST
Patriots v Panthers at the Superbowl!
Report jedi sophie September 25, 2016 12:32 AM BST
Rhino,Looks like were shacked up together this year again..My only two large bets, Panthers again, and the Steelers. My other two are Ravens and Skins.Skins NO chance,very disappointed with them!

Think Newton will continue to improve. As will Panthers. Injuries so KEY in this league its unreal!
Report Swardean September 25, 2016 8:20 PM BST
Steelers v Seahawks superbowl
Report casemoney September 28, 2016 12:58 AM BST
After some of this weeks results Think its time for the Lucky Pin Sad
Report equine flew January 8, 2017 8:31 PM GMT
Strange how things change in 3 months !
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