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dj876
04 Feb 18 14:37
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Date Joined: 01 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 428 | Blogger: dj876's blog
The scale, speed and accuracy of the drifts yesterday was spectacular for top level racing . Yorkhill odds on in the morning but 7/4 to 11/4 in about 40 seconds and his subsequent rotten run was noticeable. Melon drifted from 3.5 to 6.5 in moments. Carter Mckay 3.5 out to 7.5 in a couple of minutes. The scale and speed of the drifts was astonishing to me, no questions asked in the steward's reports.
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Report neill d February 4, 2018 9:46 PM GMT
Kevin Blake made the point this morning that the stewards didn't make any enquiries with the trainer or jockey as to why any of these horses ran so badly. Whether they'd get any worthwhile explanation is doubtful but they should still ask the question.

Don't know what they are going to do with Yorkhill now, there has been some kind of asterix beside every run of his since that day he did the dog on it in that novice hurdle at Aintree.
Report jimeen February 4, 2018 10:14 PM GMT
I actually remarked the exact same thing to a friend of mine this morning.
Carter McKay
Yorkhill
Melon
Rapid Escape
Those were four fancied horses that more than doubled their prices and one ran worse than the other. It just goes to show that the market is so important nowadays. There are plenty of horses who are well backed and get beaten as well as win , but big drifters are generally speaking , the quickest way to the poorhouse.
Report dj876 February 5, 2018 12:29 AM GMT
I thought the scale/speed of the drifts was almost unprecedented at this level of racing.

As an owner (if you understood exchanges and the context at this level/volume) I'd be asking the trainer why they ran at all.

You don't get grade 1 racing priced by variants of hundred's of percents incorrectly and there isn't many that could have (the banks) moved the prices so quickly in extremely liquid markets.

It's naive to think that some of these runs weren't anticipated by WPM. The correlation between astronomical drifts and the subsequent rotten runs was perspicacious and needs explaining, but racing doesn't have any punter representation.

A showcase weekend to convey why the sport is in terminal decline.
Report frank60 February 5, 2018 9:53 PM GMT
Melon's major drift on Betfair, from 3.6 to 6.2 within the space of 90 seconds before Saturday's Irish Champion Hurdle, is under investigation by the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board.

The betting patterns surrounding Yorkhill are also being examined by the IHRB after the gelding was easy to back before the Dublin Chase on the same afternoon. Both horses, trained by Willie Mullins, were soundly beaten.

Melon was trading at 3.6 on the betting exchange at 3.28pm on Saturday but was available at 6.2 just 90 seconds later. By the time the race went off at 3.30 he had shortened a little into 5.9.

But IHRB chief executive Denis Egan believes the betting patterns were suspicious enough to be looked into.
Report frank60 February 5, 2018 9:56 PM GMT
Melon market watch on Betfair

3.20pm – 3.95
3.22 – 4.0
3.24 – 3.85
3.26 – 3.75
3.28 – 3.6
3.28.30 – 4.9
3.29 – 5.5
3.29.30 – 6.2
3.30 – 6.2
3.30.28 (off time) – 5.9
Report gemini01 February 6, 2018 9:52 AM GMT
Thats a Wrap in the 2.55 on saturday as well,10.5 out to BSP 29.2 with an SP of 12/1, not in 90 seconds i may add but it take much more than 5 mins for it to happen, this horse was 6/1 paper favourite on Sat morning!!
Nothing will be said or done though as the authorities had one run in with these connections before and were left badly wounded with a horse in Limerick, whose name i cant remember...
Report RoyalAcademy February 6, 2018 1:12 PM GMT
Interesting points dj: have you any insight as to how effective any IHRB review might be? I presume the trail of accounts will presumably be labyrinthine?
Report cloone river February 6, 2018 3:43 PM GMT
Noble emperor was the one in limerick.People that go racing in Ireland regularly will have a good idea who the layer was.
Report RoyalAcademy February 6, 2018 7:26 PM GMT
But how transparent or impossible to prove?
Report jimeen February 6, 2018 7:54 PM GMT
The people investigating don’t have any authority to do anything of any consequence. Obviously the person pulling the strings will be using a different account, and the account holder who will not comply , will subsequently be warned off for probably 5 to 10 years. It won’t make the slightest difference to his life in any shape or form.
Report keen leader February 6, 2018 8:11 PM GMT
guys do you really think anything is going to come out of this investigation?, if you do, start believing in fairy tales.
fact: the last case brought by the turf club against an owner laying(or anyone laying) goes right back to 2011, owner Robert Martin.

Irish racing betting has had a squeaky clean slate since then!

The betting integrity officer must be one of those very comfortable state jobs. Great shame, the officer's wages was not related to cases proven.

The big whales on the exchanges are the same folk who own substantial shares in major firms and they know they are untouchable, so even if the under burdened officer were to find concrete evidence, the words, swept under carpet, would apply.

the only ones who will ever face the rap for laying are those with little or no influence/connections, like Martin or before him that poor gom/stablelad that took the rap in the Byrnes case.

these turf club investigations involving the top yards are as futile as the plethora of tribunals we have in Ireland, never ever a resolution and generally a waste of resources as the outcome will always be a fudge of one sort or another.

wouldn't it be fun, if the names were revealed of the individuals who won 5,000 or upwards laying Melon in the key 2 minute period(you can easily eliminate those trading the price).  the trick would be to compare their laying of Melon with other(if any) similar lays over the past 1 to 3 months.
Report CALLING CARD February 6, 2018 10:52 PM GMT
jimeen
the last few minutes before the off are frantic like a feeding frenzy for the layers in the know
Report cloone river February 6, 2018 11:20 PM GMT
Nothing will come out of this investigation.At least Kevin Blake brought it up on the sunday form.Did anything ever come out of the bha investigation of the laying of faugheen when he was to run in the champion hurdle a couple of years back?
Report RoyalAcademy February 7, 2018 12:36 PM GMT
My impression is that highly-paid, highly-organised teams of "professionals" are involved in this. Top names have been poached from various organisations of the years and the only objective is profit, which is as naive as it sounds.

As others say, it is done with impunity - probably from cosseted overseas locations and a few based in Ireland who run a higher risk of exposure - but it is nothing new compared to any other aspect of the industry whereby a "blind eye" is turned all the time. The so-called "victims" are either fabulously wealthy oligarchs, betting shop fodder or those that believe the book can be beaten from the TV screen and form book. Surprise results come and go, suspicious market activity happens all the time - it must be some craic to work for these shysters - but racing is powerless because its in no-one's interest to rock the boat.

The principals are all avuncular, supporters of the game but occasionally a half-hidden face will appear on screen - just like on Sunday - in joyous celebration that reminds you that oil and water mix well in Irish racing.

I haven't a single shred of proof for my current conspiratorial outlook but I am a keen student of recent history.
Report jimeen February 7, 2018 1:40 PM GMT
Calling Card
I assume by leaving the laying until late, it guarantees maximum liquidity and it also hinders the front runners from the exchanges themselves.
The game is a free for all nowadays , with punters, bookies, jockeys , trainers, owners all involved in some sort of deviousness behaviour.
In my years gambling, and you possibly have more experience than me, the game was never more rancid.
The Kinahans would be out of their depth if they were involved in modern day racing .
Report peckerdunne February 7, 2018 3:11 PM GMT
Jimeen you say if.............i say aye......Tis an easy wash.....
Report jimeen February 7, 2018 3:47 PM GMT
Could you translate that pecker ?
Basic English would do fine.
Report peckerdunne February 7, 2018 4:44 PM GMT
Yes Jimeen

Sorry about that.

I'm just saying that it's true to say that cartel do indeed have more than a passing interest.
Report jimeen February 7, 2018 5:25 PM GMT
Fair enough pecker
Thank you
Report neill d February 7, 2018 5:48 PM GMT
Anyone catch a glimpse of Ruby's face when Brian Gleeson relaid from the ring that Ardmore had won the Junior All Ireland Hurling, a look of pure disgust (couldn't conceal it).

Bit of a tangent, but I think Ruby's disdain for punters and even the Irish public generally is relevant!
Report tobywong. February 8, 2018 12:35 AM GMT
recoverable or past the point of rescue gentlemen ? Irish NH is but a passing interest to me for 5 odd years now and many a time watching videos during the week to catch up re research for the bigger meetings , sustainable re the health of the game going forward ? I've been out for a while , nothing there to entice me back in , the shenanigans the weekend just expedites the race to the bottom !
Report neill d February 8, 2018 7:35 PM GMT
So true, Tobywong

I much prefer flat racing in Ireland now. Okay there are sometimes still dud Classics but the Irish derby this season was very good, and the regularity with which the good Irish flat horses run abroad added a lot to it as well.

Look back through the last few seasons in Irish National Hunt, where are the great races? there aren't many. The Punchestown Gold Cup last season was a great race. I'd be nearly going back to the Lexus Tidal Bay won in 2012 with Flemenstar in it for a top-class open company staying chase in Ireland. Its so dominated by one or two trainers or owners, to the extent that most of the season is a pathetic spectacle in a sporting sense.

All of these people creaming themselves over 'seeing' Samcro in action. 15 years ago, we'd have gotten Samcro verses Next Destination in the royal Bond, at Christmas, and in the Deloitte.

We've had so many brutal open company 2 mile grade ones as well, tools out again 'to see' WPM's strong hand with walk-overs for Hurricane Fly and Faugheen. You used to get Hardy Eustace v Brave Inca, v Harchibald v Macs Joy (in fcking wars, by they way), throw Sizing Europe in there as well one year. Harchibald going over to Kempton at Christmas to take on Rooster Booster and Punjabi. Hardy Eustace taking on Detroit City in the Bula.... proper fckin races, not this sh!t show we are subjected to now.

I preferred Irish jump racing when we had 7 winners at Cheltenham rather than 17, better spectacle and a better spread of quality trainers...as well as more relatable owners.
Report jackdaws February 9, 2018 12:01 AM GMT
I suppose when you have a prominent bookie from the north making a statement not so long ago" the game is rancid and a journalist from the south who ate,drank and slept national hunt racing saying"can't wait for the flat season to start",it says it all to be fair.
Report RoyalAcademy February 9, 2018 11:16 AM GMT
neill, I think your point is well made on the sour puss. At least my own reaction of the Deise pantomine clown was hidden from public view but the Walsh visage dripped with contempt.

A few of examples of why Irish racing seems to have no direction at present:
jockeys and bookies taking the shilling from bookmakers-this, in my opinion, is an abomination and "anti" everything the spirit of the game stands for-I don't quite get the perceived acceptance that the bookies are "important" but the links throughout the game are far, far too close and convenient;
it now seems, if the reports I've read are true, that the TV rights pot is much larger than that was previously routinely mentioned and they are now serious profit centres in their own right that hardly need customers!!!!!;
the HRI board is strangled by its own diversity (read, competing, vested interests) and seems to have ceded all power to the man who's been in charge for so long he has batted away all-comers-which is remarkable;
what is the point of the Racing and Breeding Alliance if its not an admission that HRI is utterly and completely broken?

All the issues raised in the above debate - marked by a welcome lack of trolling - can be traced to an ineffective administration of the game.
Report tobywong. February 20, 2018 3:58 PM GMT
According to today's indo and the IHRB there are currently 93 licensed NH trainers in the country , shocking figure in fairness.
Report mrcombustible February 26, 2018 7:53 AM GMT
Mark Souster The Times 26.02.2018

An investigation into suspicious betting patterns on three beaten horses from the yard of Willie Mullins has found evidence that €200,000 (about £175,800) was wagered on the horses to lose.

The Irish Turf Club confirmed yesterday that the inquiry being led by its head of security had been triggered by the drift in prices on Yorkhill (11-8 to 7-4), Melon (5-2 to 7-2) and Carter McKay (11-4 to 9-2) at Leopardstown this month in the hour before their respective races.

Denis Egan, the Turf Club’s chief executive, said that the investigation into the activities on betting exchanges was continuing and could take weeks to conclude. He indicated that it was too early to say whether anything “wrong had occurred”.

There is no suggestion that there is any link to Mullins, a multiple champion trainer in Ireland, or anyone in his yard.

It is understood that the investigation has tracked down the accounts used to place the bets but the identity of those behind it remains unclear. It could be that it is part of a computer-generated betting operation with a global reach.

“If it’s proven that there was malpractice then it is very serious,” Egan said. “But we are not certain that this is where this will end up. There’s a lot of dots to be joined on this.”
Report olddesperado February 26, 2018 9:30 PM GMT
One way or another this reflects extremely badly on Mullins.

Someone had inside info to lay these 3 particular horses for that amount .

Off the top of my head Mullins had 5 winners at the festival so its not as if the stable was woefully out of form yet someone was prepared to risk a lot of money on 3 horses with serious form chances.

Someone might take a view on one ,  pushing it a bit two but three is stretching the imagination too far.

No someone had to know they were not winning but who would have access to this info and the ability and money to  make use of it.

And what of the horses ?,

Willie knows where he is with his runners ,  how many times has he pulled one out of a big race in the past saying it was just not 100% right in its work and there was no point in risking him.

Of course one could be working well and just not fire on the day but again we are back to the three stretching it.

You would have to conclude with the drift and sums involved that it was one of two scenario,s ,

1   Wille knew they were not right and for whatever reason ran them anyway or,

2   They were got at someway .

If it was 1 you have to ask why he ran them and who was high enough up the food chain to know and make use of the info.
If it was 2  then where were they got at and why nothing showed up  after.

There is no doubt WP Mullins is one of the best trainers in the world but it seems every year there are a few incidents where he seems to keep getting exonerated of blame or any wrong doing with the recent vet incident still fresh in the mind.

Maybe he is just unlucky that way but again its goes back to stretching that imagination just another bit.
Report cloone river February 26, 2018 9:43 PM GMT
It is understood that the investigation has tracked down the accounts used to place the bets but the identity of those behind it remains unclear. It could be that it is part of a computer-generated betting operation with a global reach.Very hard to understand a betfair account with no name.Something new on me.
Report olddesperado February 26, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
Yes i struggle to understand that description myself cloone.

What does a computer generated betting operation mean ?  and surely every punter has a global reach now ?
Report cloone river February 26, 2018 10:05 PM GMT
How many months will it go on for?Maybe one of the layers was at naas yesterday with a smile on his face.
Report jumper3 February 27, 2018 12:09 PM GMT
An interesting thread here and great to see something of it back on this forum, with many interesting thoughts put forward by those of you who are well versed in all things with the Irish set up.

I guess you have to skirt around making direct allegations as all is just on hearsay and perception with no clear facts. I'll be back later though with some questions as some of it isn't entirely clear.
Report jumper3 February 27, 2018 2:30 PM GMT
People that go racing in Ireland regularly will have a good idea who the layer was.

Referred to in a line that mentioned Noble Emperor. Sorry, are talking about a trainer or an owner here, or a relative of the owner?

The principals are all avuncular, supporters of the game but occasionally a half-hidden face will appear on screen - just like on Sunday - in joyous celebration that reminds you that oil and water mix well in Irish racing.


I haven’t a clue as to what this means but assume it to be literally someone in the winners enclosure of the Sunday of the Dublin Racing Festival. Which winner?

Anyone catch a glimpse of Ruby's face when Brian Gleeson relaid from the ring that Ardmore had won the Junior All Ireland Hurling, a look of pure disgust (couldn't conceal it)

This was nothing more than a Waterford winning & Kildare losing thing? Nothing more than that?

According to today's indo and the IHRB there are currently 93 licensed NH trainers in the country, shocking figure in fairness.
Sorry. Is this too many and many would be farmers where training is just a hobby?


I know it is the stuff of a Dick Francis novel but it could be as simple as criminals putting pressure on someone connected with the yard or the racecourse. Access is obtained. Just enough time to nobble 3 horses. Been done before (allegedly). Stable staff earn a pittance. Just need one wrong un. Too embarrassing for the yard/racecourse to admit/accept a lapse in security?
Report cloone river February 27, 2018 7:59 PM GMT
Noble emperor was the name of the horse that gemini01 was talking about in his post.Noble emperor has not run since.When I said People that go racing in Ireland regularly will have a good idea who the layer was.I was referring to  Leopardstown.A case can be made why you would take on yorkhill and melon.I love Irish national hunt racing and believes in the form book.Saying one thing and proofing it are two different things.As the Irish field found out many moons ago about a horse running in Listowel in a maiden hurdle.When you talk about Dick Francis you may not be to far from the truth.
Report CALLING CARD March 2, 2018 11:01 PM GMT
IT WAS INTERESTING THAT A OLD PAL OF THE PROMINENT MULLINS OWNER KNOWN TO BE A BIG PLAYER WAS PRESENT AT LEOPARDSTOWN THAT WEEKEND FROM HIS FRENCH BASE
Report jimeen March 3, 2018 11:51 AM GMT
Horse racing is and always has been a great game for fantasists and embellishments. Putting 2 and 2 and getting 34 is a regular occurrence. When a fella has 2k on a winner, it very often becomes 20. When a horse wins a rubbish schooling bumper in Thurles, it becomes winning 2 of them in fairyhouse, and when a trainer tells a fella he has a nice bumper horse to run , it becomes the best he’s ever trained.
Bullshhiters are everywhere, and there’s plenty of it on this thread.
Report cloone river March 13, 2018 6:22 PM GMT
Good to see melon run so well today.Such a pity he didnt win for his connections.Nicely backed to.
Report punchestown March 13, 2018 8:59 PM GMT
Tried to get up Ruby's inside turning in and was checked and lost a fair bit more ground than it got beat by.
Report workrider March 13, 2018 9:51 PM GMT
Hit the front too soon imo, keeps a bit for himself...
Report NEVIS B March 14, 2018 7:47 AM GMT
Serious late market move for him yesterday.   Those who backed him at leopardstown in a middling renewal have reason to feel slightly miffed
Report cloone river May 21, 2018 11:22 PM BST
The Irish racing authorities has revealed that an investigation into betting patterns around two other Mullins-trained horses had been closed. Concerns were raised over late changes in the odds of Melon and Yorkhill when they ran poorly at Leopardstown in February but Chris Gordon of the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board said: “We did extensive investigations in the bookmaking industry, discussed it with all the major operators and found no evidence to suggest anything untoward.”
Report Kelly May 22, 2018 10:41 AM BST
I was at Leopardstown that day , backed Min early at 7/4 on basis that Yorkhill looked completely unreliable .  Went up to stand seat and watched Min win easily , Yorkhill running as expected from an unreliable animal in my opinion  . I had no idea re betting patterns on the race , no access to Betfair . I was in Dublin all weekend , no idea what was going on in betting jungle .

Weeks later , during Cheltenham excursions , I met a mate who was working for a bookmaker in Leopardstown  that day , he told me briefly about the Yorkhill drift on B/F . Other comments not for discussion .

The program for the day says this about Yorkhill "Going lefthanded is a key to him and he could well run them ragged from the front " .  There was a horse called Special Tiara in the race ......
Report TheWasp May 24, 2018 8:39 PM BST
You never lost it kelly
Report neill d May 24, 2018 10:52 PM BST
Well my position of Gustav is pretty disastrous. I'm kind of clinging on to the idea that he didn't really finish his race great, he was a bad sixth  and I'm just kind of hoping that isn't his running. I think not running hard through the line is a sign an AOB horse hasn't run its race so hopefully there's more to come.

If he keeps drifting, I'm probably going to have a little more on (as I'm already so far against the crowd!) in the hope Aidan wasn't as forward with his 2000 Guineas pair. Pat Keane said they left Saxon short for it so maybe it was the same with Gustav and he'll improve a lot for it. He has won Irish Guineas with horses who have stunk the place out before at Newmarket, albeit they were much stronger in the market at the Curragh. Thought he looked tired finishing there. Maybe he hasn't trained on, but I always had him as a horse that didn't travel great and then finished well.

Not a fan of Mark Johnston and think his horse is a bit of a headbanger, its a bad enough race really.
Report neill d May 24, 2018 10:53 PM BST
Very wet winter, more to come hopefully!
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