Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There are currently 7 people viewing this thread.
Andrew in Sweden
12 Aug 18 09:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 2,811 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
Hi Guys and Gals (and those in-between if applicable),

Many of you will be fully aware of the daily/weekend lay threads that finished on July 1st (prior to my vacation) and created far more interest than i could have envisaged at the start in late April.

The overall record was 55/66 successful lays resulting in a profit of £1657, so i've decided to resurrect the concept, albeit starting from zero to make it more interesting, and precluding the safety net of a previous profit, hence this new thread.

The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit in the same time period, but from a personal prespective i would like to improve the previous success rate (including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices before, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this.

Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day, bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post.

I will also provide reasoning for the lay that could be an associated negative(s) or simply because i feel confident about another runner winning the race. For transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before.

The only difference this time is the lay will be posted on random days as opposed to every day previously, this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis. 

Anyone is welcome to post in context of the thread title and i will hold my hands up and accept critismn when i get it wrong, this is a given at times due to the maximum 5/2 odds constraint that ensures most lays carry a degree of risk. Banter and humour is also welcomed, in fact i plan to ask Betfair to make it a requirement of posting, but no personal bickering please.

The Curragh 3.35 - Advertise

A small field of 6 that appears (on paper at least) to only concern the front two in the betting who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

AOB loves the Phoenix Stakes, winning it for fun (16 times in the last 20 years) and if ever a race is to be named after him in retirement this one has to be a strong candidate. Several decent colts have won the race over the years and occasionally is a pointer to the following years 2000/1000 guineas on both sides of the Irish sea. Fillies are eligible to run, in fact, 3 of AOB's winners were as such and he runs 2 here today.

There aren't really any significant negatives concerning Advertise who is currently the favourite, but i feel the Sergei Prokofiev is the more likely winner and will probably end up the SP favourite.

Advertise has run 3 times, all at 6f, on good to firm going with a 1-2-1 record. His debut maiden win was fine, although nothing of note has come out of the race since (Pugo, the runner up by 0.75L won a class 3 nursery yesterday).

He won the July Stakes LTO (by 2L) and whilst it's a Group 2 race, it didn't look a particularly strong field this year, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th have all been beaten since. The 6th and 8th (last) placed have each won a soft race since, albeit at odds of 1/4 and 4/9 respectively.

Sergei Prokofiev was well fancied at 4/9 on debut (5f) but tenderly handled (as so often with an AOB 2 year old) finishing 2nd, beaten a head bob. He won his next 2 races (also 5f) very easily by 7L and 4.5L respectively, albeit against inferior opposition, yet looked very classy in both of them. A likeable Scat Daddy colt, travels well and has a good turn of foot. I rate him and if he wins well today could end up being AOB's highest rated 2 year old this season, at least on what we've seen so far.

The best form line in todays race concerns the 6f Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot won by the impressive Calyx where Sergei Prokofiev finished a neck 3rd behind Advertise (SP of 10/1 and 3/1 respectively) hence closeness in the betting between the two today.

I fancied SP strongly for the race, and although i've never jumped on the bandwagon of Ryan Moore detractors, on this occasion it certainly wasn't his finest hour by any means, the colt being ridden from the rear of the far side pack, caught behind several runners at a critical point and having to weave twice, once to the right, then left, losing momentum in the process.

Advertise had first run on him with ample room on the far side rail and was almost 2L up on him at the 2f marker. At the furlong pole, RM decided to switch SP to the near side of Vange (who was a couple of lengths up at the time, eventually finishing 4th) and he picked up really well eventually with a good turn of foot, but it wasn't sufficient to pass Advertise. With a straight and clearer run i'm confident he would have done, although whether he would have beaten Calyx is doubtful.

Although todays race is over 6f (and not an issue for either) i feel Advertise may be better over a longer trip in time, maybe even the 2000 guineas next year, but for me SP is a out-and-out 5f/6f sprinter (aka Carravagio) and will probably be aimed at the 2019 Sandy Lane Stakes and Commonwealth Cup etc even though he's entered in the 7f Futurity Stakes at The Curragh in 2 weeks time. Of course if he won impressively today, going away, this could change. 

The Curragh 6f is also a little less demanding than Ascot, this may also suit him.

The going is currently good to firm, but it was raining overnight and showers are expected throughout the day. This will not be an issue for SP (won impressively on yielding at Navan) but Advertise is unproven on it.

Advertise currently has a 2 lb advantage on ratings (112-110) but as there was only a neck between them at RA, this figure is influenced by the July Stakes (2L beating of Kochchek, rated 106).

AOB has 4 entered, so expect team tactics to play a part although not significantly due to the small field.

If there is a negative about SP, AOB has by his own admission publicy stated his stable had been affected in parts by a bug, but media reports suggest all is well now. The betting may be an indicator if this is correct closer to race time.

Although i think the finish will only concern the main 2 protagonists, So Perfect may not be so far away taking a form line with Skitter Scatter literally, and she receives a 3 lb allowance, but i would be surprised if she, or any of the others won.

Selecting a short priced runner to start is a little risky (i did the same with Washington DC at 6/4 on the previous daily thread) although i'm as confident as i can be about SP winning even though he's not a certainty by any means, but my comments are the reasoning to lay Advertise at the odds. Good luck.

Lay @ 2.28

12-Aug-18
09:02:46    15:35 Curragh
Advertise - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:133617070243 | Matched: 12-Aug-18 09:03:49    Lay    2.28    50.00    64.00
50.00
Matched
Share |
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews' Random Day Nap Lay - New Thread
Show More
Loading...
Report michael59 September 23, 2018 12:31 AM BST
if it loses by a sht head or 20 lengths its still a win VWD  Andrew
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 12:42 AM BST
Well done again Andrew

Bro Park is on RUK on Sunday, featuring the Stockholm Cup

There's British interest with Thundering Blue and Crowned Eagle running.
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 12:53 AM BST
Anyway Andrew, as your many fans and admirers on here didn't get the chance to meet you, unlike Grimmy, I was wondering any chance of us getting a glimpse of you on the RUK coverage?

I was going to suggest, perhaps a streak across down the racecourse just as the runners turn into the straight. Obviously you'll need to keep yourself at a safe distance from the runners, but not too far that you're out of camera shot.
Report Lucky Luciano September 23, 2018 2:04 AM BST
Cheers Andrew another one bites the dust. However I thought I'd be clever so as well as laying it at 2.78 I backed praeceps with a 1.25 length start over the lay on the spreads resulting in my bet fair profit and some wiped out. That's the gamble as Tony Green used to say.
May I be the first to say Good Morning !
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 23, 2018 5:37 AM BST
Good morning on this fine dayHappy
Report Lampus September 23, 2018 5:39 AM BST
Good mornig ANDREW andall
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 6:29 AM BST
Good morning Lampus, Ghost and Lucky from a bright but cloudy Sweden.

Guys,

Many thanks for all the comments, much appreciated. Happy

The Gods were with me yesterday, backing and laying, specially the latter. I haven't seen the video replay of the lay race yet only the result and comments.

MJ came to the rescue with the outsider Dalileo although he wasn't a forlone hope on his Chelmsford 2nd (winner and 3rd gone in again since).

George,

I wouldn't mind doing a RUK/ATR/ITV slot for a Saturday lay but not streaking, it wouldn't make for good viewing Wink

I don't have the 2 racing channels but didn't tracksuit Dave do a stint ?

I noticed it was the Stockholm Cup today and Thundering Blue must surely be favourite. I haven't looked if there's betting on BF, although tote betting will be available here, but i won't be playing it.

Striding and happysandwich,

WD on the profit Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 6:39 AM BST
Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day):

Progress 19/24
Running Form LWLWWLLWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWW
Daily Profit £50
Running P/L £480


Please note the running p/l precludes the applicable commission rate you are subjected to.

Total profit including the previous thread is now £2137 (74/90) Happy
Report chavman September 23, 2018 8:37 AM BST
selective accumulations are always handy
Report chavman September 23, 2018 8:38 AM BST
a bit like a spare toilet or a sychophantic brickie
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 8:45 AM BST
Selective ? Confused
Report chavman September 23, 2018 8:53 AM BST
surely the purpose of starting a new thread was not to reinvigorate the previous one or to distort them together.
Report big aitch September 23, 2018 9:00 AM BST
George saying about meeting Andrew made me think, it would be great if everyone could put up a picture of themselves against their forum name, so at least we would all know who was slagging whom off (not sure if my grammar is correct).

If the recent persona that has a picture of Steve on is him then maybe he has started a trend?
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 9:15 AM BST
surely the purpose of starting a new thread was not to reinvigorate the previous one or to distort them together.

I had two reasons for starting a new thread, 6 weeks after the previous ones finished.

The last thread was over 70 successive days (inc 4 NR's) but this one is only for random days (as stated in the title) due to increased work committments.

I wanted to start from a zero point and not rely on the safety net of a previous four figure profit.

big aitch,

An ID photo ?

Ghost has seen me face to face .............. he's still recovering Laugh
Report big aitch September 23, 2018 9:21 AM BST
wouldn't want to put up my driving licence pic
Report chavman September 23, 2018 9:25 AM BST
random may be the pivotal word
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 9:38 AM BST
I wouldn't mind doing a RUK/ATR/ITV slot for a Saturday lay but not streaking, it wouldn't make for good viewing

Andrew, you mean like a Barry's 'Bismarck'? Sounds a good idea, perhaps they could get you on the Opening Show, might help increase the viewing figures.

We just need a catchy name for the slot - how about, Andrew's A-bomb?

As for Tracky Dave, aka 'Jumps Judge', think he made a couple of appearances on ATR.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 9:48 AM BST
George,

I would go on the opening show just to talk with Francesca Love

I looked on here to see if there was a market on the Stockholm Cup later as i'm curious what price Thundering Blue is.

There is a market for distances at Manheim, the only Mannheim i know is in Germany Shocked
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 23, 2018 9:52 AM BST
Racebets are the firm for foriegn racing i believe Andrew.

Andrew looks like Emmett Brown (Back to the future) Happy
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 9:58 AM BST
The race is on the RP site but nothing on oddschecker. Just had a look on 365 where they've got meetings from all over the place, but nothing.

Btw, before someone puts me right RE: Tracky Dave. I think he's made a couple of 'official' appearances as a pundit, but has also made hundreds of 'unofficial' appearances on both RUK and ATR, as he can often being spotted in the background of the winner's enclosure, waving a wad of cash about, in the style of Harry Enfield's 'Loadsamoney' character Wink
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 23, 2018 10:06 AM BST
Yep ^^^

Wounded Knee knows him well quite a fella so im led to believe.Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 10:09 AM BST
random may be the pivotal word

Correct and fair enough, but any punter worth his/her salt will stae you don't have to bet every day Wink

Ghost,

EB ? more like ET Laugh

George,

I only looked out of curiosity, it may be worth a small lay for various reasons.

I'm sure i could find a half-decent suit to wear, not so sure about a wad of cash though Laugh
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 10:10 AM BST
will stae you

state
Report cardenden September 23, 2018 10:18 AM BST
You all know what I look like .it's in my profile pic
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 10:23 AM BST
There could be some scenes in the winner's enclosure if Thundering Blue wins!

Andrew, I presume you've not seen Clive Washbourn celebrate when one of his runners wins?
Report happysandwich September 23, 2018 10:23 AM BST
Good morning all from a rainy and dismal NE London.

Sychophantic ?

On 30th September I’ve organized a Charabang outing to Linköping for all Andrew's fans & admirers as a little surprise for him.

We will all be wearing white T shirts with our user names emblazoned on and will have the pleasure of meeting him in the little coffee bar that he frequents during his lunch break in the town square.

You chavman will NOT be on the bus.

And Sycophantic is the word you were struggling with.

You’ve been watching too many Betty Davies films.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 10:30 AM BST
A couple of good racing weekends coming up.

Off to UK on Friday for the Newmarket meeting the following day, it looks a good card, Royal Lodge, Cheveley, Cambridgeshire and Middle Park. Return on Monday morning.

The following weekend to Paris for the Arc and hoping that Ten Sovereigns will have already paid for it Wink

Hard races today with some with big fields, i won't be playing much.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 10:33 AM BST
Happysandwich,

I'll be in London on 30th, don't go to Linköping Laugh

George,

With respect to Clive Washbourn, no, is he flamboyant ?

I won't be able to see the race, although it's on RUK.
Report happysandwich September 23, 2018 10:37 AM BST
^^^^
Posted too soon and the element of surprise has now gone. Laugh
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 10:41 AM BST
This is Clive just getting started:

http://mickatkinsphotos.com/photo_15965943.html

It all comes across as a bit intense, but it makes for great telly. When Fran Berry won on one of his recently and Clive embraced after he got the off the horse, people started to wonder if he was ever going to let him go!
Report chavman September 23, 2018 10:41 AM BST
flamboyant is such a beautiful euphemism
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 10:43 AM BST
Happysandwich,

Will your buddy Ed be at Newmarket ?

What price would he give me on Ten Sovereigns today ?
Report flash bookie September 23, 2018 11:26 AM BST
Andrew I will be on the rails all 3 days of the cambridgshire meeting be sure to come and say hello I hope I can give you a steer and maybe a joker !!!!also as an incentive/thankyou for all your good work on this and previous threads  will give you a bet to an inflated price good luck and look forward to seeing you later in the week .
Report happysandwich September 23, 2018 11:32 AM BST
Andrew,

Google ‘ed thompson flashbookie’.

I only know of him from your other thread but I’m sure Ghost said he knows him.

Remember Dom asking him (on here) if he would take a 4 figure bet as he was going to Newmarket with his mates who owned a runner in the last that was laid out to win.
Ed who was standing there that day said “Come Introduce yourself and I’ll do my best to accommodate you”.

If I remember rightly Dom’s excuse was he got stuck in the Owners & Trainers bar and never got to meet Ed.

It was the day you tipped a Lay bet at Newmarket that was a non-runner.

Hi Ed,

Just typed this out and saw you had posted maybe you remember that non-runner.
Report chavman September 23, 2018 11:33 AM BST

I wanted to start from a zero point and not rely on the safety net of a previous four figure profit.


so why then choose to reference it and amalgamate the figures
Report chavman September 23, 2018 11:37 AM BST
perhaps im just being pedantic.
Report flash bookie September 23, 2018 11:38 AM BST
happysanwich I don't always remember the non runners but always remember the non triers as there are plenty to make a note of !!!!!
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 23, 2018 11:39 AM BST
Remember Dom asking him (on here) if he would take a 4 figure bet as he was going to Newmarket with his mates who owned a runner in the last that was laid out to win.
Ed who was standing there that day said “Come Introduce yourself and I’ll do my best to accommodate you”.

If I remember rightly Dom’s excuse was he got stuck in the Owners & Trainers bar and never got to meet Ed.


That is correct Happy bit strange that oneWinkCrazy but hey ho . . .

Flash im meeting Andrew there il introduce him to you.Cool
Report happysandwich September 23, 2018 11:46 AM BST
This will jog a few memories.

http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31279395/Andrews_Daily_Nap_Lay?liveView=0&pg=77

I’m off out now.

Good luck
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 23, 2018 12:00 PM BST
Me too

Got a 2 year olds birthday party i should fit right in.Excited

Be lucky out there today all.Cool
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 12:05 PM BST
Flash bookie,

Ed, i will be happy to meet up at Newmarket on Saturday, i'm planning to meet up with Ghost anyway and there's a chance i can get some freebie Premier enclosure tickets as a bonus.

I don't have any online accounts (except here of course) but have a few bob on TS at 11/10 already with a Koral shop courtesy of a family member in UK.

I think the field will cut up, i can't see Advertise, Kessaar, True Mason running anyway and 11/10 could look good on the day. Not a good thing by any means, but i really rate the horse.

I just hope Donnacha is riding it although i don't have issues with RM.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 23, 2018 1:23 PM BST
Hi Guys,

No lay post today due to lack of applicable races (5/2 odds constraint) that are poor anyway.

Hamilton - 2 races - both odds on
Navan - 3 races OK
Plumpton - 3 races OK
Uttoxeter - 4 races OK one odds-on

Good luck.
Report Lampus September 23, 2018 1:26 PM BST
Thanks  ANDREW   have a great day  Happy
Report hardestgame September 23, 2018 2:55 PM BST
go on andy lay an odds on chance
give it some balls
IF YOU HAVE ANY
Report GEORGE.B September 23, 2018 3:00 PM BST
we'll find out when does a streak down Bro Park at around 4.20 Wink
Report cardenden September 23, 2018 3:06 PM BST

Sep 23, 2018 -- 2:55PM, hardestgame wrote:


go on andy lay an odds on chancegive it some ballsIF YOU HAVE ANY


been geldedLaugh

Report happysandwich September 23, 2018 6:45 PM BST
This is Andrews post that made ‘flash bookie’ think Christmas had arrived early.
Alas it was a non-runner. Do you remember it now Ed and Ghost ?

I’ve added Andrews replacement Lay and write up at the end


Hi Guys,

I'm posting the lay without reasoning due to time constraints and i'm leaving for work in 10 minutes. I can try to create the write up at Saab and post before when i get home around 16.30, earlier than normal as i'm going out this evening.

5.00 Newmarket Bacacarat

Lay at 3.60

28-Jun-18
05:41:29    17:00 Newmarket
Bacacarat - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:129395906873 | Matched: 28-Jun-18 05:41:29    Lay    3.60    50.00    129.85
50.00
Matched

Note the total matched should be £130 that i will use in he event of failure, but they are average odds (£2.96 was at 3.55).

Flash (Ed),

Good luck to both of us. It's a very close knit handicap and any of the field can win in my opinion, but please don't send the boys around if it wins 




As my earlier lay selection Bacacarat is a NR, i’m posting a replacement.

Thinking about the post from Flashbookie (and my subsequent response) maybe it’s a positive it was a NR, as he may have layed it to lose several 000’s and if it won, I would be getting nervous every time my doorbell rang. 

6.00 Hamilton Royal Cosmic

A 0-70 rated amateur stayers race over 13f, albeit not a strong field by any means. The spread between top and bottom rated is 21 lbs.

The obvious favourite is the Richard Fahey trained filly Royal Cosmic (the lay) who won LTO albeit in a minor race over CD. She was clearly best in the race, winning by 3.75L, but it was a very poor class 6 field of primarily, well exposed stayers rated 0-60. 

As it was an apprentice race she doesn’t carry a penalty today.

Her first handicap mark was attained in a 4th run as a 2 year old, a lowly 59 in a nursery at Newcastle. In the following 7 consecutive races her mark regressed from 59 to 58 - 57 - 55- 54 - 52 - 50 and 47, thereafter winning a couple of minor handicaps in 2017 and getting back to a mark of 55. In 5 subsequent races, 4 of them this year, she reached a high of 59, her joint highest winning mark, but has slipped back to 56 since. She’s a little inconsistent to say the least.

Never won over 13f, but stays well and I don’t really see an issue, even though she’s run poorly twice over the trip, but this may have been due to the going. Only won on ground with soft in the description, but conversely, ran poorly twice on firm and many more just as bad on good.

The jockey is very inexperienced.

Richard Fahey has chosen this race well in some respects, as the filly is now rated 62 (gone up 6 lb for the win LTO) and races off a mark of 56 today. Having said that, she’s meeting 2 better class geldings, rated 66 and 71, Duke Of Yorkshire and Thorntoun Care respectively, although the latter carries a penalty for a win LTO and has to race off 73. Both are ridden by much more experienced jockeys.

Looking solely at the ratings, one would immediately think the favourite is a good thing, but I have my doubts, and suspect a mark of 56 is a tad too high against better class today. She’s probably going to be a short price, possibly too low in my opinion, but knowing sods law may hose up now i’ve stated that.

I slightly favour Duke Of Yorkshire over Thorntoun Care, even though he’s held by the latter on the run LTO, but with 3f further to travel today. Both love firm going. It’s interesting that Tim Easterby who does well with his runners at the course (only runner here) re-contests. Emily Easterby won on the horse before.

It wouldn’t really surprise me if Down Time won, although I can’t see it, nor the rank outsider Rock A Doodle Doo who would need to start at least 5 minutes before the others.

A risky lay, and probably riskier than yesterday, but i’m happy with my selection as the lay of the day, albeit a replacement. Good luck.

Lay @ 2.10

28-Jun-18
15:59:11    18:00 Hamilton
Royal Cosmic - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:129430976820 | Matched: 28-Jun-18 15:59:11    Lay    2.10    50.00    55.00
50.00
Matched
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 23, 2018 6:48 PM BST
Aye I remember it happyCool
Report happysandwich September 23, 2018 7:13 PM BST
Ed ,

You sure some of this cash didn’t end up in your satchel that day. Laugh


domino14 28 Jun 18 15:10   
I've had 1200 ew on my mates horse at 13/2 and a further 420 ew @ 11/2

Now 9/2. Got 1500 in cash on me on course, but just put 300 on the Mohammed horse. Will have a bit more on, if it remains an ew price.


This was his apology :-

domino14 28 Jun 18 16:44   
Sorry lads :(

Traveled well but didn't seem to let himself down on the ground.



Reading some of the posts on that thread I put up earlier is hilarious now.
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 5:44 AM BST
Morning another week dawns on the place known as the betfair forumHappy
Report Lampus September 24, 2018 6:08 AM BST
Morning ANDREW  and everyone Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 7:11 AM BST
Good morning Guys from a lovely sunny day in Linköping.

A little pushed for time as i chatting with my daughter on Skype.

Lunch in the city (as opposed to sex) so maybe a lay post later.
Report happysandwich September 24, 2018 8:47 AM BST
Good morning all from a beautiful cloudless NE London.

Morning another week dawns on the place known as the betfair forum
Happy

Ghost, don’t you mean The Racing Man’s Facebook ?
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 10:04 AM BST
Indeed Happy.Happy

Just your name makes my gob do thisHappy
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 11:48 AM BST
Hi Guys,

I have a lay in mind for Kempton and the reasoning post is already typed.

If i decide to go with it, the post will be up by 13.00 UK time. If not, then maybe an alternative this evening.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 11:56 AM BST
hardestgame    23 Sep 18 14:55 

go on andy lay an odds on chance
give it some balls

IF YOU HAVE ANY


If you refer to the previous thread and SP ....

Prabeni 8/11f
Glory Fighter 4/6f
Justify 4/5f
Crochet 1/1f

Laying odds-on doesn't take balls and the liability is reduced.
Report happysandwich September 24, 2018 12:19 PM BST
If you were standing in the urinals with hardestgame and he looked across  ……

Terrible thing Envy.
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 12:59 PM BST
1 min too 1 CryCry
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 12:59 PM BST
Lay Post

As it's a working day i'm reverting to limited reasoning simply to due to time constraints.

The good run continues even if it was close on Saturday (a neck) but it's the end result that counts, layers got paid out, but backers of the joint favourite didn't. The luck tends to balance out over the longer term anyway.

Back to novice stakes racing after several handicaps and the Irish St Leger for the lay selection

Kempton 2.40 - War Eagle

A 2 year old Australia colt trained by John Gosden.

Twice raced, 8/1 on debut and finished 5th of 11 (beaten 4.5L) over 7f at Newmarket (class 4) on good to soft.

The winner aside (Dubai Dominion who is now rated 102 after two susequent races) it was an average field at the time.

On a line though Dubai Dominion and Kuwait Currency there isn't a lot between him and Fearless Warrior today, although taking cross referencing form lines as such isn't set in stone of course.

Moved up in trip LTO over 8.5f on good to soft at Epsom (class 5) and finished runner-up beaten 5L (was the 4/6f).

Excuses could be made as he didn't handle the track that well (and RM was at fault taking him wide around Tattenham Corner) but he was hard ridden from some way out, wouldn't have beaten the easy winner Cape Islay under any circumstances and he's subsequently been beaten over 12L in a similar race.

He's probably going to improve but that's the same for most of the field and although Coolmore owned is one their ordinary youngsters, at least on current evidence.

Although the 10f trip shouldn't be an issue based on the sire, the dam and dam/sire were sprinters so it's not a given.

First offspring for the dam.

I feel he's only very average at best, but the owners, trainer and jockey will ensure he's backed by punters at least.

First run on the AW, but that's the same for most.

John Gosden has a good strike rate on the course, 26%, but that also means that 74% lose and hopefully this one will increase the latter statistics.

There are 9 runners today but only 4 are really in with a chance of winning although that's 3 running for layers including the favourite who ran well LTO.

Nick Grant of the Sporting Life had napped him so layers should bear this in mind.

Not exactly as risky as some in the past, although anything under 5/2 carries a certain level but i'm content with my selection as the lay.

Good luck.

Lay @ 3.6

24-Sep-18
12:30:38    14:40 Kempton
War Eagle - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:138615361295 | Matched: 24-Sep-18 12:30:38    Lay    3.60    50.00    130.00
50.00
Match
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 1:00 PM BST
Ghost,

In Sweden we're as punctual as the Swiss Wink
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 1:02 PM BST
CoolCool
Report Lampus September 24, 2018 1:03 PM BST
Thank you  ANDREW, Good Luck Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 1:15 PM BST
Dilemma thyme.

I have got War Eagle in a e w double with Forrest View laterCryCry
Report Lucky Luciano September 24, 2018 1:33 PM BST
Andrew
I've  noticed they like a public holiday as well, always leaving work early the day before of course
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 1:42 PM BST
good luck today andrew,,,just seen alnadirs  last run,, jockey took it very easy on the horse,,  looked like a very eye catching run.
Report hardestgame September 24, 2018 1:43 PM BST
andy
all single men need a good or bad woman behind you or even in front
swenden sounds good good for young ladies
give one of   them  a
treat
Report big aitch September 24, 2018 2:00 PM BST
thanks Andrew, laying this one as well, although it seems to flatter to deceive and I think it will go a lot lower in running, but as it tends to carry it's head to the right it's as if it doesn't want to get in front of the leading horses
Report Lampus September 24, 2018 2:38 PM BST
Good Luck  Layers Happy
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 2:42 PM BST
war eagle rearing up in the stalls
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 2:43 PM BST
and slow away
Report Lampus September 24, 2018 2:43 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW  easy  peasy  Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 2:44 PM BST
Saved my bacon there Andrew.Cool
Report hardestgame September 24, 2018 2:44 PM BST
lucky there boy
Report big aitch September 24, 2018 2:45 PM BST
vwd, betfair video kept locking up in play for me, anyone else have a problem viewing?
Report Early Morning Riser September 24, 2018 2:45 PM BST
Well done again and again AndrewCool
Report OilyWragg September 24, 2018 2:46 PM BST
Cool
Report Charlton2005 September 24, 2018 2:47 PM BST
unplaced at 1.24, wd Andrew! getting monotonous now Grin
Report happysandwich September 24, 2018 2:48 PM BST
Just Beautiful.

Never looked like winning.

Thanks Andrew and if Ed Thompson’s Layed it you’ll be well looked Saturday. Cool
Report Arklearkle September 24, 2018 2:49 PM BST
Yes Andrew WD again again again
Report happysandwich September 24, 2018 2:49 PM BST
you’ll be well looked AFTER Saturday.
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 2:50 PM BST

Sep 24, 2018 -- 2:45PM, big aitch wrote:


vwd, betfair video kept locking up in play for me, anyone else have a problem viewing?


yes same here

Report GLASGOWCALLING September 24, 2018 2:51 PM BST
well done Andrew. Happy
Report Early Morning Riser September 24, 2018 2:52 PM BST
Was listening to the so called silly billy racing professionals pre-race and they were all over War Eagle to winLaughLaughLaugh
Report Movewiththetimes September 24, 2018 2:57 PM BST
WD
Report Lucky Luciano September 24, 2018 3:07 PM BST
Many thanks Andrew, kept it simple this time layed at 3.4
Report happysandwich September 24, 2018 3:23 PM BST
Although I was sure the bet was ON because I was able to watch the live video feed – It still took 23 minutes to upload my Account.

Because I was so worried, I took a screen shot with Cash Out £324.49 and £99.49 showing green.

Probably worth bearing in mind if you think there may be a problem.

The last time I pressed that Cash Out button when it was all green, I ended up having 43p @ 1,000/1 to win on the horse I’d just Layed.

It turned out it was ME who was GREEN.  Laugh
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 3:35 PM BST
CrazyWink
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 4:59 PM BST
Many thanks for the comments Guys, much appreciated as always.

I watched the replay earlier, very poor, 7th of 9 beaten 14.25L. Avoid it in future until it improves. Another one for the layers. Happy

Lucky,

Correct, in Sweden everyone finishes early (generally after 'fika' at 3.00) the day before a public holiday. If the holiday happens to fall on a Thursday or Tuesday, they will have a 4 day weekend.

Fika = coffee and cake break.

Ghost,

2 free premier enclosure tickets arranged for Newmarket on Saturday, we need to pick them up at the course. Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 5:13 PM BST
Nice one.

Seafood bar on me then innitCool

Going to pm youCryCry
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 5:16 PM BST
are you 2,, well you know what i mean,,  does sound as if there is a bit oh rumpity pumpity going on here,,LaughLaugh
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 5:32 PM BST
Happysandwich,

Have you tried deleting the browsing history, cookies, cached images and files, then re-start ?

It's surprising how much quicker your PC will function. We do it every evenign at Saab automatically.

Cardenden,

101% hetrosexual here and living in the best country for it Wink
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 5:41 PM BST
Gay as **** but somehow got 4 kids and every woman in Fenland wants me hope that clears my end up CardyCrazyWink
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 5:48 PM BST
ok pal..  i was only pulling yer legs  ,
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 5:50 PM BST
its just when you said ,,  going to pm you ,,i thought you meant you were gonna P U  M P ,,him
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 5:50 PM BST
LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Andrew in Sweden September 24, 2018 6:01 PM BST
Actually after London/Newmarket this weekend and Paris the following, my next trip over to UK could be a while unless requested by Saab and that's unlikely.

It must be easy to pull in the fens that's all i can say WinkLaugh
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 6:08 PM BST
you had a good hobby ghostLoveLoveLoveLove
Report cardenden September 24, 2018 6:09 PM BST
have
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD September 24, 2018 6:09 PM BST
We are all relatedExcited
Report ProSniper September 24, 2018 6:18 PM BST
BAMOS Sweedy! .. book idea for you> Laying in the Zone..

Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com

New to Betfair?

You need to open an account before you can add content to the forum.

Opening an account only takes a few minutes.

register now