Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There are currently 4 people viewing this thread.
Andrew in Sweden
12 Aug 18 09:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 12,054 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
Hi Guys and Gals (and those in-between if applicable),

Many of you will be fully aware of the daily/weekend lay threads that finished on July 1st (prior to my vacation) and created far more interest than i could have envisaged at the start in late April.

The overall record was 55/66 successful lays resulting in a profit of £1657, so i've decided to resurrect the concept, albeit starting from zero to make it more interesting, and precluding the safety net of a previous profit, hence this new thread.

The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit in the same time period, but from a personal prespective i would like to improve the previous success rate (including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices before, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this.

Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day, bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post.

I will also provide reasoning for the lay that could be an associated negative(s) or simply because i feel confident about another runner winning the race. For transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before.

The only difference this time is the lay will be posted on random days as opposed to every day previously, this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis. 

Anyone is welcome to post in context of the thread title and i will hold my hands up and accept critismn when i get it wrong, this is a given at times due to the maximum 5/2 odds constraint that ensures most lays carry a degree of risk. Banter and humour is also welcomed, in fact i plan to ask Betfair to make it a requirement of posting, but no personal bickering please.

The Curragh 3.35 - Advertise

A small field of 6 that appears (on paper at least) to only concern the front two in the betting who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.

AOB loves the Phoenix Stakes, winning it for fun (16 times in the last 20 years) and if ever a race is to be named after him in retirement this one has to be a strong candidate. Several decent colts have won the race over the years and occasionally is a pointer to the following years 2000/1000 guineas on both sides of the Irish sea. Fillies are eligible to run, in fact, 3 of AOB's winners were as such and he runs 2 here today.

There aren't really any significant negatives concerning Advertise who is currently the favourite, but i feel the Sergei Prokofiev is the more likely winner and will probably end up the SP favourite.

Advertise has run 3 times, all at 6f, on good to firm going with a 1-2-1 record. His debut maiden win was fine, although nothing of note has come out of the race since (Pugo, the runner up by 0.75L won a class 3 nursery yesterday).

He won the July Stakes LTO (by 2L) and whilst it's a Group 2 race, it didn't look a particularly strong field this year, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th have all been beaten since. The 6th and 8th (last) placed have each won a soft race since, albeit at odds of 1/4 and 4/9 respectively.

Sergei Prokofiev was well fancied at 4/9 on debut (5f) but tenderly handled (as so often with an AOB 2 year old) finishing 2nd, beaten a head bob. He won his next 2 races (also 5f) very easily by 7L and 4.5L respectively, albeit against inferior opposition, yet looked very classy in both of them. A likeable Scat Daddy colt, travels well and has a good turn of foot. I rate him and if he wins well today could end up being AOB's highest rated 2 year old this season, at least on what we've seen so far.

The best form line in todays race concerns the 6f Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot won by the impressive Calyx where Sergei Prokofiev finished a neck 3rd behind Advertise (SP of 10/1 and 3/1 respectively) hence closeness in the betting between the two today.

I fancied SP strongly for the race, and although i've never jumped on the bandwagon of Ryan Moore detractors, on this occasion it certainly wasn't his finest hour by any means, the colt being ridden from the rear of the far side pack, caught behind several runners at a critical point and having to weave twice, once to the right, then left, losing momentum in the process.

Advertise had first run on him with ample room on the far side rail and was almost 2L up on him at the 2f marker. At the furlong pole, RM decided to switch SP to the near side of Vange (who was a couple of lengths up at the time, eventually finishing 4th) and he picked up really well eventually with a good turn of foot, but it wasn't sufficient to pass Advertise. With a straight and clearer run i'm confident he would have done, although whether he would have beaten Calyx is doubtful.

Although todays race is over 6f (and not an issue for either) i feel Advertise may be better over a longer trip in time, maybe even the 2000 guineas next year, but for me SP is a out-and-out 5f/6f sprinter (aka Carravagio) and will probably be aimed at the 2019 Sandy Lane Stakes and Commonwealth Cup etc even though he's entered in the 7f Futurity Stakes at The Curragh in 2 weeks time. Of course if he won impressively today, going away, this could change. 

The Curragh 6f is also a little less demanding than Ascot, this may also suit him.

The going is currently good to firm, but it was raining overnight and showers are expected throughout the day. This will not be an issue for SP (won impressively on yielding at Navan) but Advertise is unproven on it.

Advertise currently has a 2 lb advantage on ratings (112-110) but as there was only a neck between them at RA, this figure is influenced by the July Stakes (2L beating of Kochchek, rated 106).

AOB has 4 entered, so expect team tactics to play a part although not significantly due to the small field.

If there is a negative about SP, AOB has by his own admission publicy stated his stable had been affected in parts by a bug, but media reports suggest all is well now. The betting may be an indicator if this is correct closer to race time.

Although i think the finish will only concern the main 2 protagonists, So Perfect may not be so far away taking a form line with Skitter Scatter literally, and she receives a 3 lb allowance, but i would be surprised if she, or any of the others won.

Selecting a short priced runner to start is a little risky (i did the same with Washington DC at 6/4 on the previous daily thread) although i'm as confident as i can be about SP winning even though he's not a certainty by any means, but my comments are the reasoning to lay Advertise at the odds. Good luck.

Lay @ 2.28

12-Aug-18
09:02:46    15:35 Curragh
Advertise - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:133617070243 | Matched: 12-Aug-18 09:03:49    Lay    2.28    50.00    64.00
50.00
Matched
Share |
Pause Switch to Standard View Andrews' Random Day Nap Lay - New Thread
Show More
Loading...
Report TheAnorak November 15, 2018 6:45 PM GMT
Backett must be delighted to have got a Listed win with a filly rated 86 - there were only three of her fourteen rivals rated lower than her.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 15, 2018 7:10 PM GMT
TheAnorak,

Exactly. As i mentioned earlier i didn't think any of the UK runners would win and her form is very in and out. I thought her stablemate had a better EW chance.

€34,650, not a bad pot for a listed race.

All,

For those that are interested, Ghost has been banned from posting permanently (spamming, presumably PM). I received a SMS earlier.
Report fronter November 15, 2018 7:18 PM GMT
That's a shame about Ghost AIS - There are a lot worse posters than him on this forum. Suppose he could be back in a different guiseWink I don't post too often but thanks for your Lays, an excellent thread may I add. I have not seen many better for consistent pre-race analysis and profitability.
Report TheAnorak November 15, 2018 7:26 PM GMT
According to the official France Galop site, first prize for the Listed race is 27,500 euros - that figure you quote perhaps includes the French owners premium payment, but UK trained horses don't qualify for that.
Report TheAnorak November 15, 2018 7:29 PM GMT
Btw, the runner-up in that Listed race today, finished third in a claimer last time out and changed hands for just under 29,000 euros!
Report Andrew in Sweden November 15, 2018 7:44 PM GMT
Fronter,

Thank you for the kind comments.

I'm not interested in the 'history' with respect to Ghost as i wasn't involved, but unfortunately he rose to the bait and responded too often. I've already suggested he returns under a different profile although that's no guarantee to anonymity as we all know.

All,

I don't play the football so often but i'm going to have a fun bet laying Germany HT/FT vs Russia at odds on. The hosts are not the team of old as the world cup proved and although their opponents are not that good, they do score goals.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 15, 2018 7:46 PM GMT
TheAnorak,

OK thanks, i simply took the figure from the result in the Sporting life.
Report isleham November 15, 2018 8:37 PM GMT
You can never trust those pesky germans
Report Deltâ November 15, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
no such thing as a fun bet
Report Andrew in Sweden November 15, 2018 8:40 PM GMT
Isleham,

I think i knew my fate after 8 minutes Laugh

Only a fun bet at odds-on.

What is it about not betting on anything when a ball is involved ?
Report TheAnorak November 15, 2018 8:45 PM GMT
Andrew,

Had a look at the results on the Sporting Life site and I reckon they have a software problem. They've taken the total prize money for the race, 55,000 euros, changed the currency to pounds, and divided it into prizes down to 4th place using the percentages that apply to UK racing. Whereas the French pay down to 5th place, and of course the euro is worth less than the pound, though maybe not for much longer!
Report Andrew in Sweden November 15, 2018 8:53 PM GMT
TheAnorak,

Funny you should mention that, i looked at the RP after i posted (out of curiosity) as the exchange rate didn't look correct. It aligns with France Galop you mentioned.

1st £24,336.28 2nd £9,734.51 3rd £7,300.89 4th £4,867.26 5th £2,433.63
Report andyl November 15, 2018 10:41 PM GMT
Andrew in Sweden    Joined: 10 Nov 07
Replies: 12029 15 Nov 18 17:38 
Hi Guys,

A very busy day at work and no chance to post at lunchtime so a void day

cardenden    15 Nov 18 18:10 
so was this for the thread andrew

cardy..thicker than an elephants peenis.
Report Lampus November 16, 2018 5:38 AM GMT
Good  morning   ANDREW  and all  Happy

Happy CHELTEHAM Everyone  LoveLove
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 7:04 AM GMT
Good morning Lampus and all,

A so-so card at Cheltenham including a Grand National winner over the quirky cross country course and a few potentially promising novices in the last. A Scottish trained, Rich Richi owned runner at Newcastle and the usual AW fayre.

For those that like shorties, Weather Front in the opener is the best of them (although the odds do look a bit skinny). I wouldn't back Tiger Roll in the XC race.

I have a lay in mind for Cheltenham and will try to post before i leave for work as i could be quite busy again today.
Report cardenden November 16, 2018 7:22 AM GMT
ANDYl

Can you post your full p/l for 30th march 2018..
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 7:53 AM GMT
Lay Post

A short reasoning as i'm pushed for time (late leaving for work) and may not get chance to post at lunchtime.

As it's a fancied favourite i've already been matched despite the low liquidity at this time.

It was unfortunate i finished work later than usual yesterday as my suggested lay finished 2nd but i don't like posting the reasoning close to race time. At least i don't have such an issue today.

Cheltenham 3.35 - Pym

A  5 year old Stowaway gelding trained by Nicky Henderson.

Raced 5 times, 3 bumpers and 2 hurdles, winning twice, one of each race type.

Won on debut in a reasonable bumper field over 16f at Ayr (12/5f) in April 2017 his only race of the season..

Finished a 2L runner-up in a Kempton bumper (16f) next time out and followed up with a down the field placing (9th/20) beaten 18L in a class 1 bumper (17f) at Aintree (April).

Won on debut over hurdles at Chepstow (16f) in October but the field was average at best and only really concerned 4 runners.

Was made a strong favourite (4/7) at Ascot earlier this month and finished 2nd. I remember the race well and didn't think he looked anything out of the ordinary.

Racing over much further today although i doubt the trip will be an issue.

The dam has thrown 9 in total (including Pym) and from 64 runs have won on 7 occasions.

Tends to lead but could be taken on by Double Treasure today.

The field is quite strong as you would expect in a class one here and there are some potentially decent unexposed types, in particular Darlac and Double Treasure who is my idea of the winner.

Obviously any Nicky Henderson trained, lightly raced novice hurdler with reasonable form is going to be fancied but i feel that his odds are simply due to these factors and not based on overall form. The trainer also won this race last year that adds to this notion.

He may turn out to be decent but from what i've seen will have to improve a lot (and could of course).

Good luck.

Lay @ 3.60

16-Nov-18
07:32:23    15:35 Cheltenham
Pym - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:144971034051 | Matched: 16-Nov-18 07:32:23    Lay    3.60    50.00    130.00
50.00
Matched
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 7:54 AM GMT
Cardenden,

You can only post the last 3 months Wink
Report michael59 November 16, 2018 8:23 AM GMT
all these fun bets at a fiver or tenner a pop , after they have lost , well it was only a fun bet lol . but when you add it all up and your down over say £500 over the year its not so funny , so for once i agree with delta . theres no such thing as a fun bet
Report Deltâ November 16, 2018 8:58 AM GMT
I see that 40/1 winner yesterday Demon Fou was 52 lengths last to Pym in the Chepstow race!
Report happysandwich November 16, 2018 9:30 AM GMT
Thanks Andrew.

Nice for us to be able to put our feet up and relax before 3.35

Enjoy your lunch.
Report stridingedge November 16, 2018 9:30 AM GMT
Andrew

I've got Gosden's 2yo Nassya with a squiggle in my DB, ungainly and not shown too much early either. Has had a couple of months off so perhaps been worked on but 10f at Lingfield looks a bit of an ask to me on evidence so far. Has stall 1 which is great for bouncing out and dictating but I'm not sure htis will be able to do it.


Trouble is not had much time this week for form and not been able to look at the opposition, also out today whilst race is on so won't be laying.

Looks vulnerable to me with it's own traits though around it's price.

Gl today
Report stridingedge November 16, 2018 9:35 AM GMT
Half asleep still just seen Botti's is out so I wouldn't be interested anyhow.
Report hologon November 16, 2018 9:48 AM GMT
Excellent attention to detail and superb tipping,incidentally Rich Richi horse is trained at Greystoke England.
Report happysandwich November 16, 2018 10:03 AM GMT
^^^^
59 year old Financial Adviser alert !!
Report tanglefoot November 16, 2018 10:12 AM GMT
Regards Andrew’s Laybet, I fancy Coolanly, but Pym has to be respected as it has been tightening up on Betfair,close to the bookmakers odds, time will tell where the price will go
Report Lampus November 16, 2018 10:47 AM GMT
Thank  you  ANDREWHappy
Report Deltâ November 16, 2018 10:57 AM GMT
Lampus to Andrew is like for like, Michael Gove to Theresa
Report Lampus November 16, 2018 11:08 AM GMT
Please  do notswear on this  thread  Delta Devil
Report Deltâ November 16, 2018 11:08 AM GMT
Wink
Report deadbrain59 November 16, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
Pym ,feighly last 2 fav won ,I would LAY,gl
Report mini me November 16, 2018 11:49 AM GMT
Very good reasoning, Mister dead...
Report Magic__Daps November 16, 2018 1:17 PM GMT
GL Andrew
Report sadlers November 16, 2018 2:43 PM GMT
excellent selection striding taking on the Gosden camel.Hope you won plenty.
Report cardenden November 16, 2018 3:20 PM GMT
wont be laying this one today ,,COOLANLY ,,  word has it this is only a confidence booster after a fall.  GOOD LUCK THOUGH
Report deadbrain59 November 16, 2018 3:35 PM GMT
trolling
Report deadbrain59 November 16, 2018 3:41 PM GMT
there you goMischief
Report Lampus November 16, 2018 3:41 PM GMT
Thank you  ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report second again November 16, 2018 3:44 PM GMT
Well done Andrew.
Report Buzzards November 16, 2018 3:45 PM GMT
Nice one Andrew, nice one son, nice one Andrew let’s have another one?
Report happysandwich November 16, 2018 3:49 PM GMT
^^^
I’m with Buzzards.


We're singing along Laugh
Report stridingedge November 16, 2018 4:06 PM GMT
WD andrew Happy

I got Gosdens spot on(trailed in last of 5) but didn't lay it, didn't have time to look at race properly and botti's out slimming down opposition just had JG's as a database negative and it ran accordingly.
Report Magic__Daps November 16, 2018 4:18 PM GMT
WD AIS
Report Lucky Luciano November 16, 2018 4:18 PM GMT
HappyPosting at 07.53 showed the confidence you had in this one and rightly so
Many thanks
Report Magic__Daps November 16, 2018 4:35 PM GMT
And striding.....
Report Early Morning Riser November 16, 2018 5:01 PM GMT
Well done Andrew
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 5:02 PM GMT
Good evening Guys, many thanks for the comments.

It was a good result for readers/layers although at lunchtime i wondered why i didn't use Tiger Roll as the selection who was more or less the same odds this morning. He was much less of a risk and there were several negative reasons for laying him as opposed to simply thinking the form of Pym wasn't that good.

Never mind, it worked out OK although i would have been disappointed if Pym had won after Tiger Roll got beat.

Weather Front won as expected and i backed this at 1.55 this morning (it was actually matched higher) although i wouldn't have been in a mad rush to back at 4/11. He can win again.

On Wednesday i mentioned the race i selected the lay was essentially a coin-flip but looking at todays' results, the 12.30 and 14.25 Newcastle (15.25 to a lessor extent) and the 2.00 Lingfield show they're not always as such.

Striding,

Very well done with the lay (13/8f last of 5) i didn't even look at the AW cards earlier.

Hologon,

Thank you, additionally for pointing out Greystoke is in England. No excuses on my part, although in mitigation any town or city north of Exeter just as well be in Scotland to a guy born and bred in Cornwall. WinkLaugh
Report stridingedge November 16, 2018 5:07 PM GMT
Cheers Andrew though pleased the horse looked every bit how I thought, It's not quite the same when you don't have the money down.  Cry
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 5:09 PM GMT
Striding,

There's always another race or another day Wink
Report TheAnorak November 16, 2018 5:31 PM GMT
The McManus runner in the first tomorrow is all the rage - here's the film of her win on debut back in March:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1hGlJkSdibzaOL02BmqSlkAXRv8MQSH7x

She's the one that pulls her way to the front early on. Not sure that action will enjoy good ground and the downhill parts of Cheltenham. But she appears to have beaten a bunch of hopeless misfits.

The runner-up finished a 30L last of six on her only subsequent start. The third continued her career in claiming hurdles, starting with a 20,000 price tag and declining to 10,000 on her fifth start, all without attracting a sniff of a bid for her. She was pulled up on her last two starts.

The fourth, owned by the biggest owner by number of horses in France, got well beaten again over hurdles, then finished 7th in a 1m 7f maiden on the flat - she's now been relegated to one of the country based trainers used by the owner for her castoffs. 

The time of that race was 4m 30s for two miles.

We all know these Henderson juveniles are the bees knees, but I'd struggle to back that at 4/5.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 6:19 PM GMT
TheAnorak,

Nice write-up.

Visually impressive with the field well strung out on heavy ground. Different conditions tomorrow although the fact NH won the race last year with Apples Shakira (same owner) and the undoubted hype will ensure she goes off a short price.

I used Google to see how much JPM paid for her (unsuccessful) so maybe it was a private sale.

Can you imagine the comments if Burkey was still posting ? Wink
Report isleham November 16, 2018 6:59 PM GMT
Gordon will be delighted with the run of Tiger Roll with a view to March and April
Report TheAnorak November 16, 2018 7:19 PM GMT
On a lighter note, UK course commentators will be hoping that one of the lots on offer at the Deauville sale on Monday doesn't end up with a UK trainer. He's a winning 3-y-old hurdler called FUKUTO.
Report happysandwich November 16, 2018 8:02 PM GMT
TheAnorak,

Below are the first 5 in the betting at Cheltenham 12.40 Saturday and they all won LTO over 2 miles and these are their winning times :-

Never Adapt (Compiegne 2m) Winning time: 4m 29.68s
Montestel  (Chepstow 2m )Winning time: 4m 2.80s
Quel Destin (Kempton 2m ) Winning time: 3m 44.30s
Cracker Factory (Wetherby 2m) Winning time: 3m 47.50s
Katpoli (Huntingdon 2m) Winning time: 3m 41.90s

It backs up what you posted earlier about Never Adapt running against hopeless misfits but tomorrow at least 3 of her rivals are not in that category, they are 3 quarters of a minute faster !!

Thanks, nice bit of info none of us would have noticed, Merci.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 8:19 PM GMT
Isleham,

Although i thought Tiger Roll was a lay he ran much better than i expected. Only beaten 5.5L giving the winner 15 lb and 26 lb/25 lb to the 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Happysandwich,

Sadly your work is in vain although i understand your logic. The winning time comparisons on different courses, going, weight carried and pace renders them unreliable.

TheAnorak,

Laugh

All,

I noticed Michael Bell had a winner earlier, the last one was probably when the Sporting life was still in print. 50/1 and owned by the Queen. He probably heard Kenny Dalglish is getting a knighthood and thought ...... Wink
Report happysandwich November 16, 2018 8:26 PM GMT
Andrew,

3/10 for effort ? Sad
Report Deltâ November 16, 2018 8:32 PM GMT
1
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 8:35 PM GMT
Happysandwich,

For the effort you put into it 8/10 Wink
Report Early Morning Riser November 16, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
I have backed Katpoli in that race tomorrow, 33/1 is too big.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 16, 2018 9:52 PM GMT
Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day):

Progress 39/53
Running Form LWLWWLLWWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWLLWWLWWWWWLWWLWWWLLLWWWLWWW
Daily Profit £50.00 Grin
Running P/L +£500.00 Grin


Please note the running p/l excludes the applicable commission rate you are subjected to.

Early Morning Riser,

Good luck with Katpoli, there are worse 33/1 chances running tomorrow.
Report andyl November 16, 2018 11:34 PM GMT
Andrew in Sweden    16 Nov 18 07:54 
Cardenden,

You can only post the last 3 months

tell cardy.

wd today.
Report isleham November 16, 2018 11:52 PM GMT
Anorak
Without being rude and don't take offence just posting race times is a somewhat simplistic comparison as there is no posting of ground conditions and actual race distances..and knowing French jump courses the ground at complete was likely to have been pretty soft where as the likes of kempton/huntingdon/wetherby would be very good ground on sharpish courses..just a thought
Report isleham November 16, 2018 11:53 PM GMT
* sorry predictive text strikes so please read Compiegne not complete
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 7:31 AM GMT
Good morning Lampus and all,

Several half-decent NH races in UK today (Punchestown card is ordinary) and there's also a couple of black type on the AW at Lingfield.

I didn't see a standout lay at 5/2 or under last night although i didn't spend so much time looking but i'll review the cards in more detail (accompanied with plenty of Coffee and Knäckebröd). If i haven't posted a selection by 13.30 i may call it a void day so i can watch the racing on ITV.

I managed to find the winner of the main handicap race last Saturday at decent odds and think i have today with Kalondra although the odds will be lower.

At Cheltenham i also like 12.40 - Quel Destin (EW) and 1.15 - The Worlds End (Win). The latter has a bit of class and jumped well for a novice LTO.

Isleham,

It was happysandwich (not TA) that posted the time comparisons (see posts 20.02 and 20.19).

andyl,

Thank you.
Report Lampus November 17, 2018 8:01 AM GMT
Good morning  ANDREW and all Happy
Report Deltâ November 17, 2018 9:00 AM GMT
isleham had had a sherbet, nap!
Report happysandwich November 17, 2018 9:21 AM GMT
Morning all from a bright sunny morning in NE London.

TheAnorak,

Sorry, I didn’t mean to get you into trouble with Isleham. Laugh
Report TheAnorak November 17, 2018 9:49 AM GMT
I mentioned the time solely because, as I hope is obvious, running in a 2m race that takes 4m 30s is a wholly different experience from one that takes 3m 55s. To offer an example from the same stable, a French import called Rolling Star had won a hurdle at Auteuil in 4m 49s, and on debut here won the January trial in 4m 33s. He was sent off favourite for the Triumoh at 5/2, but in a quicker race (4m 11s), he simply lacked the speed to get competitive.

If you wish to do a search, you'll find a comment from me on this forum suggesting before the Triumoh that he wouldn't be fast enough to win it.

Compiegne was indeed heavy ground, the filly had to jump more hurdles than she will today and of course, a 3-y-old in March will find 2M a severe stamina test.

Just to be entirely clear, I'm not saying she cannot win, just that I wouldn't want to back her at such a short price.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 9:50 AM GMT
Morning Happysandwich,

Not so bright here and 'daylight' hours are getting shorter as mid-winter approaches.

I think Isleham was confused as you typed TheAnorak in bold font at the start of your post.

Delta,

Hiccups ? Wink
Report tanglefoot November 17, 2018 9:54 AM GMT
WD Andrew with your 20 th place in the third division Nap competition, not so easy tipping winners,is it,although u are doing better than ole Weasel-wise Grin
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 10:00 AM GMT
Never Adapt was matched for buttons at 1.76 and for a hundred at 1.80 last night, certainly the wrong price even if the backer obviously fancies it. Now at 2.20 (max 2.30 matched) and even this is on the low side.

I think Quel Destin is overpriced.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 10:17 AM GMT
Tanglefoot,

Laugh

I guess i deserve the stick with respect to the naps comp, but in mitigation i don't treat it seriously at all, occasionally selecting the first favourite i look at, or an outsider (as today) and i only returned to the comps a couple of months back.

I was runner-up in the premiership once and only pipped by a 20/1 winner on the last day. Sad

I can tip winners (last Saturday) .... won @ 9/1.

The curtain falls on the flat turf racing season today with only Doncaster as the swan song meeting, a typical November handicap card that looks as tricky as it does every year.

My idea of the winner is the John Gosden trained Royal Line who could be a group horse although the almost 7 month absence is a question mark, as is the draw. He was favourite for this race last year but finished in 7th place.


Sadly i forgot all about the naps comp ref the above.
Report deadbrain59 November 17, 2018 10:31 AM GMT
17th October £553 off 35 ,17th nov £500 off 53 ,this aint going nowhereCrazy
Report stridingedge November 17, 2018 11:00 AM GMT
you fcuking idiot how can you tell me to stay off your fred when you come on here with your shoite!
Report tanglefoot November 17, 2018 11:02 AM GMT
Andrew,
Just having a bit of fun at your expense,not serious
First race at Cheltenham, very interesting, was impressed with Montestrel’s first outing,should be good race
Report stridingedge November 17, 2018 11:04 AM GMT
1.) no ambiguity in selections, ie is it a selection or not on the off?
2.)reasoned logic showing a decent knowledge base of the sport
3.)bets posted with stakes
4.)an impressive ROI over time with relatively low odds on horses towards the top of the market
5.)decent bloke even in the face of numptees like deadbrain

Deadbrain

1.)ambiguity as to whether a selection exists or not
2.)no logic
3.)no proof of bets
4.)not a bl00dy clue about how to read form
5.)one of the rudest coonts I've ever known to grace this place
Report stridingedge November 17, 2018 11:09 AM GMT
Deadbrain the odds you are laying 6-10 (i notice you have raised them as you were showing a loss on the 5.1's and lower), you are a ticking time bomb and believe me when it goes off you will be losing 20pts in a day no problem, you will hit 3 or 4 of these 2nd favs in a day because it's inevitable when you are going against logic going in blind as you do.

Your ROI is minimal and since I started calculating your returns you have moved the goal posts to higher odds again.

Higher odds will not save you.

Not known many who turn up on others freds posting smileys when the fred originator has lost. Utterly detestable little clown, far worse than Dom ever was.Even laughing the other day when one of your fantasy lays fell and died (even if you were unaware it died you should never post smileys for a horse falling!)

End of rant

Apologies Andrew, you are way to kind to some of these mugs on here.
Report deadbrain59 November 17, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
mr troll
Report cardenden November 17, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
striding has got your measure , you total plank,,so gystfo here
Report stridingedge November 17, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
yes I'm the troll Laugh

Oh the irony.

You shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the internet.
Report cardenden November 17, 2018 12:08 PM GMT
dont fall out withstriding deadbrain ,, hes the only one that talks to you over on your so called profitable thread,,thats the only reason you come on here,,
Report i_agree_with_nick November 17, 2018 12:22 PM GMT
Guys - personally I find many of db's comments hard to decipher but maybe that's me. He is in the naps Prem League so deserves some respect for that.

However, this is now verging on bullying and will ruin a great thread.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 12:33 PM GMT
Tanglefoot,

No worries, banter is fine Wink

Striding,

Thanks for the rant/comments and apology not necessary.

As my Grandmother (bless her) used to say, politeness doesn't cost anything but it's worth every penny (or Kroner in my case).

I don't take too much notice of deadbrains' comments on my lays, he has his thread, i have mine and they are totally different. I don't post negativity on his thread as it would be unkind but primarily because i haven't got a clue what his lays are based on. I assume he makes a profit as there are many + signs posted but i've never reviewed it in detail anyway. Good luck to him.

Nick,

Thanks, but no worries ref the above, i'm far too thick skinned to allow it to bother me.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 12:49 PM GMT
Quel Destin Love
Report REDROB November 17, 2018 12:52 PM GMT
Cool
Report stridingedge November 17, 2018 12:52 PM GMT
nick any coont can win a naps comp backing shorties over a spell

He's never analysed a race form wise in his life, so NO respect from me I'm afraid.

Bullying do me a fcuking favour. look at what he does FFS.
Report Early Morning Riser November 17, 2018 12:52 PM GMT
Well done Andrew. i layed my bet off in-running @ 5 went as low as 2.02.
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 1:04 PM GMT
Redrob and EMR,

Thanks.

I only had a score on the winner but at better odds and also opposed Never Adapt (both bets last night) but didn't trade on the latter after the drift, i rarely do. She lost the race before the start but actually ran well considering the way the race went.

Quel Destin was my nap in the comps Wink

Also well done to TheAnorak for his 17.31 post last night ref Never Adapt.
Report happysandwich November 17, 2018 1:12 PM GMT
As soon as the ‘faces’ saw my post last night, pointing out that 3 of the opposition to Never Adapt were 3 quarters of a second faster, the price went from 4/6 to 3/1.

And if you believe that you’ll believe anything. Laugh
Report cardenden November 17, 2018 1:27 PM GMT
wheres the lay andrew
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 1:36 PM GMT
Happysandwich,

You knew Wink

Cardenden,

As stated earlier if i hadn't posted before 13.30 it would be a void day. I was looking at Accalmatio (2.55 Punchestown) who won well on the flat LTO but has never won over hurdles. Lighty raced, low weight and the trainer is an enigma. I still feel it's a lay but decided to swerve it for this thread.
Report cardenden November 17, 2018 1:42 PM GMT
cheers andrew
Report Deltâ November 17, 2018 1:43 PM GMT
theresa May
Report cardenden November 17, 2018 1:43 PM GMT
Kajaki   2,50 wetherby
Report deadbrain59 November 17, 2018 1:54 PM GMT
stating fact not bulyingBlush
Report Lucky Luciano November 17, 2018 3:04 PM GMT
Another good call Andrew although not an offical lay
Accalmatio hit 1.45 for 160 quid before finding nothing for pressure
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 3:17 PM GMT
Lucky,

Thank you,

2 lays in 3 days i haven't posted but i had every opportunity so only myself to blame. I layed it myself albeit for a little less than the usual thread stake. Having an OK day so far.
Report Lucky Luciano November 17, 2018 3:56 PM GMT
Watching more than gambling today laid that one at 2.03 IR and never adapt at 2.0 for pennies last night. Small profit on the dayHappy
Settle for that for sure
Report Andrew in Sweden November 17, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
Hi Guys,

Getting ready to go out, i heard a rumour there's a Viking debauchery and pillage party in the city square Wink

I'm probably the worst football tipster on this thread but i've layed Sweden away to Turkey.

Have a good evening Happy

Lucky,

Any profit is not be sniffed at, well done.
Report isleham November 17, 2018 5:53 PM GMT
Just back from the Cheltenham races and (well put delta) yesterday was a long hard afternoon and  evening so sorry about the mix up over the posting header. Very little Irish participation today which is unusual for this meeting and also considering their ground is no softer than ours and don't suppose they will risk Samcro tomorrow which leaves them short of time to change direction on the fence or hurdle option
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com

New to Betfair?

You need to open an account before you can add content to the forum.

Opening an account only takes a few minutes.

register now