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value bet
14 Jul 18 13:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,750 | Blogger: value bet's blog
44 weeks.  Aver 2.5 days per week living in the mounting yards in Australia rating every horse in a percentage of fitness.

Hi Punters, winning days keep rolling along and no doubt our fitness % ratings are the keys to winning on big exotics.

We find the big dividends and have not had a losing day since November 2017.

Some stats updates.

•    Exotics tipped $2,060m, about 1 million pound.

•    ROI 14,000%

•    Fitter horses have won 90% of all our races. 1206/1081

•    Laying unfit horses a win 827/823   99.52% strike rate.

•    Laying unfit horses a place 827 races with 806 winners, 97.50% strike rate.

Fitness is not in your form guides and if it was these are the figures you would be punting into.

So using systems without fitness is a bit harder.


I wish someone in UK would have a go?

James
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Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:02 PM BST
ripon results

4 wins easy
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:04 PM BST
claire results

2 wins at 4/1
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:14 PM BST
FAIRVIEW NEXT

plenty of horses fit here, danger race.

Value runners here 9 - 4

Bad race
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:18 PM BST
fairview results

4 second at 5/2
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:19 PM BST
newtown abbot race 1

1-6
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:19 PM BST
thats 2-6
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:26 PM BST
6 wins  - something then the 2

winner here 5/1
Report value bet August 6, 2018 2:27 PM BST
nearly midnight, steptoe and son time then bed, thanks james
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 6, 2018 2:28 PM BST
'Arold!
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:01 PM BST
it is 11pm in Melbourne
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:05 PM BST
Catterick bridge next

2 nothing flash but then either are the others stange race here.

7-6 but bad race.
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:05 PM BST
7 sweating up bail out bad race.
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:09 PM BST
cat results

7 won but not for me, fair type and can go again. SKY CROSS
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:14 PM BST
Layed a place on Betfair today, 1st time for a long time.

100% strike rate, the end is near after 30 years.

James
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:15 PM BST
Newbury next race 2.
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:19 PM BST
I am not sure yet, but one race 5.70 in the blue

20 in the pink, I put up 8 in the pink and got set.

Horse had to blow as hopelessly unfit and blue went out to 12

Ran last.

I think I can trade on that with more practise.

The perfect system.
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:20 PM BST
Deauville the 5-9 look well
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:21 PM BST
Newbury race no close ups and going in, pass
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:27 PM BST
Deavulle results race 6.

3 across the line, who?

i think he got excited and went from english to french?

6-5-7,
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:31 PM BST
Catt

5-4
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:37 PM BST
catt results

4 3rd, 5 a heart as big as a pea and went 800m and gone.
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:40 PM BST
Newbury my last, getting on to mid night again.

race 3 it is.
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:47 PM BST
10  98

7   97.50% fit

want to see more
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:48 PM BST
1 98, thats all, 7 long odds on here, not 100% sure on just under 98% fit
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:52 PM BST
moneys hot here for the 7
Report value bet August 7, 2018 2:55 PM BST
newbury race 3 results

7 wins too good a horse, HOT TEAM can improve 3-4 lengths on that run in improved fitness.

Thanks punters.
Report value bet August 8, 2018 7:01 AM BST
Strategy, value banker is the (1)

Rough banker in (1) BIG OVERS AT $41.00 WINS, dividends here $18,500, 9,000 pounds. MASSIVE.

Canterbury 1550m Race 5. rt we have not lost since November 2017
Report value bet August 8, 2018 7:10 AM BST
Dont bet in Adelaide, once the winner skips away most races the jockeys spit the dummies and a runner from back gets up in the placing when it should not of.

The riders failed to ride their horses out for placing. James
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:32 PM BST
it is 11.30pm in Melbourne
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:35 PM BST
brighton coming up
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:38 PM BST
brighton race 3

2-1
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:39 PM BST
mau trots 14-10
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:42 PM BST
brighton results

2 wins 6/4
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:44 PM BST
greyville is a raffle, best 2-10 but just about all 97%
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:44 PM BST
mau trots has had about 8 false starts.
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:45 PM BST
mau 14 odds on galloped, ha
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:45 PM BST
10 leading
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:46 PM BST
pont only see a couple but 8 looks well
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:48 PM BST
mau results

14 3rd after giving them 50 - 100 metres
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:49 PM BST
greyville bolters in on low 97% fit
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:49 PM BST
pomt 8-2
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:53 PM BST
pont results

8-2 as called

8 5/2
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:56 PM BST
chep

1-4
Report value bet August 8, 2018 2:58 PM BST
thanks punters, nearly midnight in melbourne and bed time. James
Report value bet August 8, 2018 3:06 PM BST
1 wins
Report value bet August 9, 2018 8:24 AM BST
Hi members, nice work this week.

MIDWEEK RESULTS:

Profit $22,000, 33 races: 30 fitter horses won, 91% strike rate, ROI 350%.

Lays 10 with 1 place loss, 90% strike rate.

1362 RACES with 1245 Fitter horses have won 91.40% strike rate.

ROI closing in on 15,000% now and $2.2m in exotics tipped.

PLUS winners in UK, FRANCE and SOUTH AFRICA on Betfair forum at midnight.

Back Saturday.

Thanks

James
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 9, 2018 8:31 AM BST
None can deny that you've earned your day off.
Report value bet August 9, 2018 9:08 PM BST
Changes to my stat counts.

After 1362 races there is a clear pattern that the last 2 races at most tracks in Australia are harder to wager on.

Because they are made up of older horses, 7-8-9-10 year olds, punters win/lose on them more than other races; and they fail to

perform to the fitness levels of earlier races.

I know suggest HALF YOUR BET, which is good advice.

I am deleting these 50/50 races from my stats and punters can watch my strike rates increase even higher.

It may well be the same in all countries?

The older the horses, the harder it is to win on.

James
Report value bet August 9, 2018 9:15 PM BST
We are here to only win, not lose.
Report value bet August 9, 2018 9:37 PM BST
MARTINGALE BETTING.

This is when your place a bet and double up plus 10% if you lose.

You play the system to how many bets you want before you cash in such as 4-8-15, or how much profit 100% - 300% - 1,000%.

Our fittest horse a place is a good bet on this system that have a great strike rate.

I would presume and 5 outs could cause you grief but then I dont think we will have 5 outs O[b]N OUR FITTEST HORSE NOT RUNNING A PLACE VERY OFTEN[/b].

Yesterdays martingale results, eliminate the last 2 races from each track had the following strike rates:

1-1-1-1-2-0-2-0-2-0-1-2-0-2.

So you can see a clear winner.

Will do some more stats on the successful wager and easy to bet on.

You can go win, but then you will have more "outs"

James
Report value bet August 10, 2018 2:46 AM BST
What is our best bets and how to win on fitness for smaller punters. Half the costs for UK Pound)


We have not lost overall since November 2017.

I email out to new members how to win, I will now do a summary on our best realistic betting for the smaller punters.

Win, there are not enough and not really suggested even though some huge odds come up.


No 1 Place Betting: Martingale

•    I think this is the best bet for smaller and bigger punters, double up plus 10% if you lose.
•    Just about cannot lose.
•    Can play for 50c cents start  up.

Think of trying to back a heap of blacks in a row on a roulette wheel, but you have a big fitness edge.

Place betting fittest horse or top line:  A good choice and look for values.


Quinella and Exactas.

Flexi Box up our 1 and 2nd bankers with our fit horse and then go back again with the top line fittest horses.

•    Each horse costs you $2 for either bet for 50% of Quinella and 25% of the Exacta.

•    Box up top 5 fitter horses costs $5 for 50% of the Quinella and $5 for 25% of the exacta.

Cheap bets for a lot of collects during the day.



Trifectas:

Flexi box up with our first 2 horses as roving bankers, that is 2 bets or box up top line of fittest horses, they come in.

•    To rover 1 horse in our top 5 fitter horses cost you $5 for a nice 13.88%.

•    To box up our 5 fitter horses: $5 for 8.33%


Pick 4’s

This costs more but again rover or to win our 1st and 2nd horse, that is 2 bets with other fitter horses.

I would also not be surprised if the top 5 fitter horses return a great profit as plenty come in.

•    1 horse to win and flexi top line costs: $5 for 20.83%

•    1 horse to rove with the 4 top line other fitter horses: $5 for 5.20%

•    Flexi box up top 5 fitter horses: 4.16% for only $5

Then you can go wider with the all 7 fitter horses if you like in different formats.

When you see value in the 1-2-3 fitter horses, the dividends can pay enormous, like $36k once.


Lay Win and Place:

Even though a win 99.42% strike rate and 98% win place rate, this bet is not for everybody, but has massive returns.

Your liabilities each race can be substantial.


You can also use our fitness tips for 1st leg of running doubles, daily doubles and quadrellas.

Good luck, stick to what your like and you will get plenty of collects from me.

Gambling is a game of chance.

James
Report value bet August 10, 2018 2:45 PM BST
It is 11.45pm in Melbourne.
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 10, 2018 2:46 PM BST
desperate marketing
Report value bet August 10, 2018 2:47 PM BST
Wolverton next
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 10, 2018 2:48 PM BST
Milton Keynes?
Report value bet August 10, 2018 2:50 PM BST
Wolver.

9-2-3
Report value bet August 10, 2018 2:52 PM BST
not sure if the 9 willrun the 1220m
Report value bet August 10, 2018 2:54 PM BST
results

2-3 and 9 never ran the distance after leading.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:00 PM BST
Singapore

10 - 5 open race though
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:05 PM BST
Singapore results in hard raxce.

5 just pipped, and nice odds also, x a nose.

9/2 a place the 5.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:06 PM BST
Muss next.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:08 PM BST
Muss race 3.

4-1
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:13 PM BST
muss results

4 wins at 7/1
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:15 PM BST
Fairview race 7

2-10 some of these wont run the distance looks for value
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:18 PM BST
FAIR RESULTS

10 checked at the start, gone.

missed, sugar. I hate losing.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:19 PM BST
wolv many horses 2nd up or 1st up and u will get bad runs here, pass.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:25 PM BST
Wolv results winner 2 100/1, said a bad race.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:28 PM BST
Dax, half the jockeys have dismounted behind the barrier, their horses are get weight relief edge, I cant believe it.

4 looks ok
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:29 PM BST
Brighton

1-2
Report duncan idaho August 10, 2018 3:30 PM BST
weight relief edge


Laugh
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:33 PM BST
Brighton results race 4.

Can the tear away leader, 1 keep going?

1-2 finish

1 at 4/1, both horses fittest and cleared out from others, fitness wins.
Report value bet August 10, 2018 3:35 PM BST
Dax results

4 3rd.

Thank punters I have 300 horse to rate in order of fitness tomorrow, big day.

Its 12.35am now.

James
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:34 PM BST
Hi punters, a hard day at the office and Flemington and Rosehill and a bit unlucky.

17/18 fitter horses won with a strike rate of 94%.

10/10 lays in 100% strike rate.


Plenty of winners and plenty of just one horse at odds cleaning out our pick 4’s dividends that paid
big dollars most of the day.

We traded a record low of $50 in front for the day.

We finished the week with a $22,000 profit.

Back again next week and no more hard days like today.

Thanks

James
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 11, 2018 1:36 PM BST
M O R E
B U L L
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:36 PM BST
Deauville 4-3
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:39 PM BST
Ascot 1-8
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:45 PM BST
Ascot results

lost, the big weight got the 1.

Deauville results

4 second.

bad start
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:47 PM BST
redcar

no close ups.
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:49 PM BST
tuff

10-1-8
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:52 PM BST
turf results race 4.

10 second,
Report value bet August 11, 2018 1:56 PM BST
hopp  3-2
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 11, 2018 1:56 PM BST
hopp 2-3-4
Report value bet August 11, 2018 2:02 PM BST
11pm, bedtime for me.

hopp results


2 third

thanks.
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 11, 2018 2:03 PM BST
pleasure
Report value bet August 12, 2018 12:04 AM BST
Pattern watching.

After my biggest day of the week, Saturday, if I go to Befair forum at midnight I don't perform satisfactorily.

Just too tired, no more of these.


TWO RACE DAYS OF MARTINGALE A PLACE best fittest horse.

1-1-1-1-2-0-2-0-2-0-1-2-0-2/ 2-0-1-0-2-2-0-1-2-0-0-2-0-0-3-0-1-2/   
Report Willie Shafter. August 12, 2018 12:57 AM BST
wd jim
Report value bet August 13, 2018 1:17 AM BST
Let It Ride: Fitter Place System (Is this the world’s best system?)

The more research results I do with Martingale place betting on our 1st fittest horse, the more this may be a fool proof system for
small punters, such as yours truly or suitable for pro punters.

You back our 1st fittest horse to place then let it ride and if we lose you need to double your last bet plus 10%.

Are all place is chicken feed?

Saturday at Flemington a $10 let it ride place bet; returned $20,000! (10k pound)

Rules:

•    You must like the bet.
•    You must have a 1-2-3 place dividend.
•    Set your all up systems to a realistic number, say 3-4-5 placed in winners.
•    Set your lowest price, I would think at $1.25 a place is acceptable.
•    Your average dividend for the day may be around the $1.70 price -  $2.50. (Some 1st fittest have paid $8 a place)


Example to win: 

Dividend : Lowest $1.70, stake $2

1st in returns $3.40
2nd let it ride =  $3.50 x $1.70 = $6.00
3rd let it ride = $6 x $1.70 = $10

Cash in and show a 400% profit and start again.



Or this happens: $2 starting bank.

1st in returns $3.40
2nd let it ride =  $3.50 x $1.70 = $6.00, but loses.
3rd  double up plus 10% = $13 @ $1.70 = $22.00
4th let it ride = $22.00 x $1.70 = $37.50

Cash in and your stake was $2.00 + another $13.00 put in  = $15 returns $37.50

A profit of 150% then start again.

But then you can go more than 1 out, so you have to double up +10% eventually = a bigger profit, though you must  investing a lot more.


Why so cool:

1.    Fitness horse places eventually and hopefully with fewer outs.
2.    It is simple, punters around the world can win, just 1 number to run a place ON YOUR BEST MARKETS.


Options:

•    Cash out your stake investment early, so then you are playing with their money.

Good luck and I will keep some stats on 3 fitness let it ride fitter place bets.


Future Software:

A bot can be developed where you are sms or emailed 24/7 a fitter place selection and a bet is auto placed.

Wake up in the morning and you may have a tidy profit in your account.

Impossible to lose, but you need a huge bank if playing for serious monies and if we have a bad run of outs.

Better than Bitcoin?

Regards


James

(Gambling is a game of chance)
Report value bet August 13, 2018 5:52 AM BST
SMS 1 FITTEST TIP ONLY.

The feedback to LET IT RIDE place system has been huge.

We will also incorporate a SMS 1 tip service to members, that you can use to place out Let It Ride bet system or win bet or use in other exotic bets

including doubles and 1st leg of quaddies.

Members will get about 12-14 selected best of fittest 1 race tip a day SMS to you 2-4 minutes before each race.

More later, the software is already available to us,

Regards

James
Report chavman August 13, 2018 8:48 AM BST
You’ve probably not had a lucid day since November 2017 either jim
Report value bet August 14, 2018 2:05 AM BST
LIVE STREAMING FITNESS EDGE TO PUNTERS AROUND THE WORLD

https://www.facebook.com/jim.conway

Hi punters this is something we will be getting into and that is live streaming fitter horses with yours truly.

You can today get the tips as I see them on the screen and comments, plus
late at night on community Betfair under value bet, I will be there a few times a week.

The advantage is I can talk about fitter horses and unfit horses and also keen on Betfair is horses in the run betting.

I can help punters out whom is leading and unfit and whom is sitting back a bit but fitter to get good overs.


Live today at Warracknabeal, Gosford and anywhere I can see a fit runner to give you an edge to getting a winner.

Early stages yet and I apologies for any problems that may occur.

Welcome to say hello.

Cheers

James
Report value bet August 14, 2018 8:35 AM BST
Plenty of live streaming action today for punters on FACEBOOK Jim.CONWAY , with winners all over the place.

46% win strike rate and 250% profit.

Nice work and back again soon

No lays called as flat out.

James
Report big aitch August 14, 2018 9:19 AM BST
Jim, you are one sandwich short of a picnic, get help now.
Report value bet August 14, 2018 2:03 PM BST
Live streaming now on facebookjim.conway on your races.

We won $14,000 today (7,000) pounds.

All good.

James

See if I can help out also with in the run betting and pre race summaries.
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 14, 2018 2:07 PM BST
What have you spended it all on this week?
Report value bet August 14, 2018 3:24 PM BST
Great session just finished winners on the horses and dogs and 1-2 in order, all around your country.

Bed time James
Report womenandthosewithnointerestinracing August 14, 2018 3:26 PM BST
Have you doubled up that $14k already?
Report value bet August 15, 2018 12:47 AM BST
I don't bet.

I have always been facinated by the career of the late, great Davie Bowie and especially his brilliant character Ziggy Star Dust.

I am going out to buy some colourful wigs and put make up on and entertain punters live streaming around the world with winners.

Yesterday stats about 20 winners on top from 40 races from around the world.

If u think I am crazy now, wait to you see wot happens next?

James
Report big aitch August 15, 2018 12:59 AM BST
"I don't bet."

How can you boast massive profits then you lunatic??????
Report value bet August 15, 2018 1:45 AM BST
I have a blonde, hot pink, purple and burgandy wigs coming in the mail.

Wahoo here I come folks!

Stay tuned.
Report value bet August 15, 2018 2:49 PM BST
I am a bit tired now, 12 hours live online in two days with 30 winners 1st pick winning, 75% of banker horse 1-2 in fitness winning.

100% lays strike rate.

450% ROI

$29,000 PROFIT IN 24 HOURS.


It is a very tough gig, live streaming but interacting on chat is amazing talking to winning punters after each race.

Back Saturday and I need a couple of days rest.

James
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