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value bet
14 Jun 18 00:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 5,811 | Blogger: value bet's blog
It had to happen, some 8 months since last pay out, but I am kicking myself.

How I slipped my guard:

I know one of the owners of a horse having its 1st start for Chris Waller and won like a real nice horse.

Their pockets will be lined with her in the future, Bubbles N Troubles.

Why?

Firstly they are talking Listed or Group racing in the spring.

That puts her value up to nearly a million, this is if offers have not come in the last 24 hours.

Then any yearly will be worth $500k - 1 million plus easily if she wins a Group  race.

Then if she goes into the brood mare sale when say 4, she will be sold forl over a million.

With only 5 owners, there is their house paid and stilll money left in the bank.

So with all this happening, 10 minutes later I let my guard down and got caught on a 50/1 lay after 8 months.

Cost me $6,500 or 3,200 pounds, but I put my head down and keen to keep my 6 months win record in tack.

We finished the day $4,000, 2,000 pounds up for the day 30% ROI.

A big lesson learnt as wanted to get to 1,000 straight lays.

Stats now 775 lays for 772 winners, strike rate 99.61%.

I hate losing!

James
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Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 12:17 AM BST
how could you have got to 1000 when you'd already laid 2 winners?
Report value bet June 14, 2018 12:31 AM BST
My last stats were 660 in a row out of 770 calls, so needed another 340 to make it to 1,000 straight.

Would of happened x Melbourne Cup day.

Damn.

James

But I did finish my cowboy movie also when tipping, that never helped either.

Got 5 race results with 1-2-3-4 from the top line of fitter horses (5), nice work.

Such is life.
Report mouse muldoon June 14, 2018 12:34 AM BST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPIP9KXdmO0
Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 12:36 AM BST
so..you laid a 50/1 winner and lose $6,500

but still win $4,000 on the day...?

was burkey involved?
Report mouse muldoon June 14, 2018 12:37 AM BST
Jim doesn't bet.
Report big aitch June 14, 2018 12:42 AM BST
I thought that Willie, I have said he is the Australian version of him, definitely has the same understanding of mathematics.
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:32 AM BST
All pre race tips are up on my site, I have had over 900k views on my blog.
Report Facts June 14, 2018 5:30 AM BST
WALOC
Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 9:30 AM BST
so..you laid a 50/1 winner and lose $6,500

but still win $4,000 on the day...?
Report value bet June 14, 2018 10:42 AM BST
Thats right, we won $18,300 for day on tips, costs elevate betting because of the lay of up to $14,300

Profit was $4,000 on the day

91% of fitter horses won.
Report dave1357 June 14, 2018 1:01 PM BST
utter fantasy
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:26 PM BST
It is raining cats and dogs here in Melbourne at 10.26pm.

see what I can see, have to be a bit more sure if I can see enough of them

James
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:31 PM BST
Could be nottingham
Report Lee Ho Fooks June 14, 2018 1:31 PM BST
Oh look at the time, need lunch. Got some eggs, what else should I have with them?
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:42 PM BST
Nottingham

cant see them
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:45 PM BST
Dog races here getting priority, try again in 15 minutes when finished.

Watching youtube how to do a pitch for my script.
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:50 PM BST
Newbury the 9 looks ok, as does the 2
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:52 PM BST
4 ok also
Report value bet June 14, 2018 1:58 PM BST
results

2 wins at 7/2
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:02 PM BST
Turf maybe next
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:06 PM BST
Turf

I am watching Qentin Tarantino

turf

4 looks well
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:10 PM BST
results

4 wins evens
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:11 PM BST
not

6-7
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:15 PM BST
not results.

7 cant get out, 6 last

7 wins easy evens
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:20 PM BST
Newbury maybe next

Watching Steven Spielberg now.

9 looks well so far.

I want to see the 7-8
Report themightymac June 14, 2018 2:20 PM BST
Where can one find an Enigma machine when one needs one Crazy
Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 2:21 PM BST
james..

where are you winning these amounts?
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:23 PM BST
New

camera stay on only a few.

Tricky race 3 ok now, tuff race.
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:24 PM BST
I dont bet when tip, get too emotional.
Report GLASGOWCALLING June 14, 2018 2:26 PM BST
" Big near, Small far away."
Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 2:28 PM BST
james..

where are you winning these amounts?
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:30 PM BST
new results in a hard race.

Stephen King video now.

I am going to win an Oscar!

7-9-3, never saw the 7 damn it
Report value bet June 14, 2018 2:32 PM BST
I am inspired a bit more now, back to my movie script before bed.

Thanks punters.
Report duncan idaho June 14, 2018 2:53 PM BST
I dont bet when tip, get too emotional



has found the Holy Grail yet decides to keep powder dry...now that's discipline, folks  Cool


walofs
Report GLASGOWCALLING June 14, 2018 2:55 PM BST
Foster's - 3/1

Whiskey - 1/1

Ketamine. - 1/2
Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 2:56 PM BST
james..

where are you winning these amounts?
Report Willie Shafter. June 14, 2018 2:56 PM BST
is Ricardo taking your bets James?
Report value bet June 15, 2018 1:04 AM BST
As I said I rarely bet unless see big overs in exotics and an unfit favourite.

If I bet all day, I would not have a system, probably the best ever seen.

Example:

I was happy my friends have a million dollar horse and got wrapped up in all the excitment with sms's coming through.

What happens next.

I call the 9 a lay at 50/1

Emotions got the better of me and interferred with my work.

thanks
Report big aitch June 15, 2018 7:40 AM BST
What's it like living an a box with a load of frogs Jim?
Report Willie Shafter. June 15, 2018 10:22 AM BST
Report big aitch June 15, 2018 12:02 PM BST
Which one's Jim, Willie, my bet he is the one on the far left
Report Willie Shafter. June 15, 2018 2:34 PM BST
that is correct big       н
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