Jun 29, 2018 -- 1:12PM, Andrew in Sweden wrote:
The last lay on this thread, so i'm hoping it bows out on a successful note to compliment the first one. I started it on April 23rd with a AOB runner, Washington DC and i'm going to finish it with a stablemate, albeit not a sprinter.8.20 The Curragh Lucius TiberiusA 3 year old 60-100 handicap with 6 runners, although only 5 can be seriously considered. Excluding the favourite, the field is quite closely knit with only 6lb between them, but the higher of these, Bucky Larsson is rated 8lb below the top weight (the lay).Ran in a couple of ordinary maidens as a 2 year old finishing 6th and 3rd, but let's ignore them, and they were run oin heavy going. On debut as a 3 year old he was 2nd of 14 in an average maiden over 10f at Navan that initially looks good on paper, but only one winner has come out of the race.His next run, again a maiden was over 10f at The Curragh that he won cosily enough, but as before, only one winner has come out of the race.He's since run 3rd of 5 in a 12f listed race at Leopardstown and 13th of 18 in a handicap at Royal Ascot.Trip, course and going should all suit, so what's not to like ?To start with he's Coolmore owned, AOB trained with Ryan Moore riding at Irelands premier course. This is going to take at least 0.5 points off the odds without even looking at form. The form figures of 03-2130 may look fine, but are they that good ?. A poor run on debut. The next run was an improvement (as you would expect) but the winner (Whirling Dervish) aside, the rest were poor. His next 2 runs, although a runner up and a win, were only average at best. The listed race was better, although the winner (joint favourite) looked useful at the time, but didn't advertise the form at Royal Ascot. The other joint favourite couldn't get into the race and was eased. This leaves the class 2 handicap at Royal Ascot where he finished down the field, albeit after a slow start.He's top rated for a reason and the obvious favourtite, but the other 4 running for the layers are not snails, are lightly raced, could improve and receive plenty of weight. I think his rating of 93 actually flatters his ability and coupled with the high profile connections will distort the true odds somewhat.I like Night Of Power who's lightly raced and ran well enough LTO trying to give 20 lbs to the winner and was beaten 1L, although has to prove himself on good to firm. The others are closely matched and anything could win, the rank outsider excepted of course. The lay is a risk, this can clearly be seen, but i don't consider it as a high risk, and based on my comments above are reasons for the lay of the day. Good luck. Lay @ 3.4029-Jun-18 17:16:29 20:20 Curragh Lucius Tiberius - WinBetfair Bet ID 1:129502065398 | Matched: 29-Jun-18 17:55:52 Lay 3.40 50.00 120.0050.00Matched
well done andrew
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