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Andrew in Sweden
23 Apr 18 13:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 9,859 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
I'm going to post a daily nap lay to a level stake until the end of the month. I'll keep the prices short enough to make it interesting, and only use this thread to monitor progress. 

18.00 Navan Washington DC

One of the stables global travellers and won this race last year after a prep race in Meydan. AOB taking the same route this year after finishing 4th there, but all wins have been on good or firm. Will be soft today and showers are forecast for this afternoon. I also feel WDC needs 6f to be at his best these days, certainly his style of running would support it. The top 3 in the betting are close on ratings, and the English runner Final Venture is not out of it, but i think Son of Rest (who is probably better than his form would suggest) will win it. Good luck all.

Lay at 2.60

23-Apr-18
09:57:50    18:00 Navan
Washington DC - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:123248570104 | Matched: 23-Apr-18 12:56:56    Lay    2.60    50.00    80.00
50.00
Matched
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Report Lampus June 19, 2018 6:13 AM BST
Good Luck  ANDREW Happy
Report GLASGOWCALLING June 19, 2018 6:40 AM BST
GOOD MORNING all from a bright and warm CHESTER. fancy a small win and place coeur de lion ( 5-0 ascot ).

ground and distance will suit, looked in form last month at chester, should give a good account in an open race. Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:50 AM BST
Lampus,

Thanks and likewise.

Please note neither of the above consitute a lay for this thread (not matched yet) so i will post tonight.

Glasgow,

A very difficult race. Good luck
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 6:53 AM BST
Off  for a jog and swim in misty Cornwall
All the  best  backers and layers  Happy
Report big aitch June 19, 2018 12:09 PM BST
Columbia 3.4 now hf/ft Andrew, good for a trade, I don't normally do hf/ft are they in play as well?
Report big aitch June 19, 2018 12:11 PM BST
Poland 4.3 hf/ft, would both have been good trades
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 3:55 PM BST
Battaash  Mabs Cross   Happy
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 5:08 PM BST
Thank you  Andrew  LagstovegasHappyHappy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:14 PM BST
3.05 Clayx won @ 2/1 Sad
3.40 Battaash 2nd @ 9/4 Grin

I also like two EW back bets at good odds

3.40 Mabs Cross @ 23 3rd @ 20/1 Grin
5.00 Lagostovegas @ 13.5 Won @ 10/1 Grin

I have layed Columbia HT/FT @ 2.96 Grinand Poland @ 2.4 (90 mins)
Grin

Not a bad day Grin
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:24 PM BST
No time for a reasoning post for the lay today as i needed to bering some office work home.

7.20 Beverley El Astronaute

19-Jun-18
18:06:34    19:30 Beverley
El Astronaute - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128751593886 | Matched: 19-Jun-18 18:10:10    Lay    3.10    50.00    105.00
50.00
Matched

Good luck all
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:25 PM BST
7.30 Beverley
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 6:26 PM BST
Good Luck Andrew  and  thanks for a great day  Happy
Report deadbrain59 June 19, 2018 7:18 PM BST
not too shabby at all WDGrin
Report cardenden June 19, 2018 7:33 PM BST
Y  O  U     D  A      M  A  N      A  N  D  R  E  W
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 7:39 PM BST
Andrew  what can i say but THANK  YOU  HappyHappy
Report cardenden June 19, 2018 7:40 PM BST
HES A GENIUS
Report Knight Commander June 19, 2018 7:55 PM BST
WD Andrew Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 8:46 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys Grin

Big Aitch,

Yes HT/FT are always in play, but i rarely trade them

The advantage with laying HT/FT is two bites of the Cherry, albeit slightly higher odds of course, but it's paid off for me often in this cup. Look at the HT results so far, many draws.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 8:48 PM BST
Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day) :

Progress 38/42
Daily profit +£50
Running p/l +£1556 Grin

Overall progress 45/54 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 58 days (4 void)
Overall profit +£1384.50 Grin
Report BESTMATE44 June 19, 2018 8:49 PM BST
Well done Andrew,i needed that lay to get back to respectability,many thanks.
Report smirnoff2therescue June 19, 2018 8:54 PM BST
been impressive on both counts Andrew footy and the horse lays  - giving the game away now but theres been a ton of penalties in the WC so far and its usually been priced up around the 7/2-4/1 mark in every game - books have been caught out becos of VAR introduction after horse has bolted so to speak wiv at least 11 pens so far in 15/16 games.
Dont think they will be pricing up at that price from now on WinkWink
Report smirnoff2therescue June 19, 2018 8:58 PM BST
sorry 10 in 17 games as just mentioned on BBC WinkWink
Report Movewiththetimes June 19, 2018 11:56 PM BST
WD AIS
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 5:17 AM BST
Good  morning ANDREW
Report therobster27 June 20, 2018 6:07 AM BST
Morning Andrew, haven’t had much time in the last few weeks for the forum and in general horse racing, right in the middle of moving and I only wish there were more hours in a day…..It’s getting stupid nowCrazy

Laying is really not my bag, but credit where credits due you have gave reasoning and logic for all of your lays and have had great success, also with some of your backs I might add….. It’s quite possibly the most interesting and viewed thread presently on the forum.  Win lose or draw it’s always nice to see this type of thread that gives some food for thought, I hope the success continues and your hard work rewarded. A very big WD Cool
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:13 AM BST
Good morning Lampus,

Thanks for the comments guys Grin

A lack lustre card at Ascot today and apart from the Cracksman in the PoW, i don't really like much. I haven't backed him yet, still pondering.

I've had a fun W/P @ 100 on Red Balloons in the 2.30 (now 140) although i don't really expect her to win, but with a little luck in running (drawn well) could run into a 4th or 5th place. If she wins, you'll hear my shouting in UK Laugh

On a more serious back bet, i like Burnt Sugar in the 5.00 RA. He ran much better than his 8th place on this track LTO would indicate (finished very strongly). I've been waiting for him to run since. Currently trading @ 38 and 8.8.

The football this evening looks to have a one sided look to them and Spain must surely be almost a certainty to win, albeit at restrictive odds.

In the first game i've played both teams (Portugal and Morocco) to score at 2.22.

The daily lay will be posted this evening.

Good luck
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:15 AM BST
Therobster,

Many thanks for your kind comments, very much appreciated Grin

Bad timing moving during RA week LOL

Good luck today
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 6:15 AM BST
Thanks Andrew Good Luck  Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 20, 2018 6:34 AM BST
Morning sweetbeansWink
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:46 AM BST
Morning Ghost Grin
Report Burkey1885 June 20, 2018 7:16 AM BST
Morning from Alvor Andrew nice one on footy I hope some took advange of my best bet of tournament I put on here Senegal to qualify from group , 5/4 was printing money great start !
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 20, 2018 5:37 PM BST
What the fooking hells going on i had to go to page 2 to find this

Lampus your sackedAngry
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 5:45 PM BST
Sorry  ghosty

Evening All
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 5:50 PM BST
Good evening guys,

A little shorter write up this evening as i'm off out to watch Spain v Iran game in one of the local sportsbars.

I wasn't surprised at all to see Red Balloons finish down the field (14th of 22 @33/1) although i was disappointed with the run of Burnt Sugar (16th of 30 @ 33/1) in the hunt cup, more so as he ran well at Ascot LTO, but these big field Royal Ascot handicaps are so difficult to find a winner, never mind a place.

Sadly the Betfair markets draw the line at 5 TBP, not 16 Wink

Morocco couldn't score to match Ronaldo who scores for fun, so my recent good run on the football is temporarily halted, or at least until Spain play later. If they lose, don't expect a post from me until the world cup 2022 Laugh

I didn't review all the evening races due to time constraints, but i think i've found a fancied runner (5/2 or less limit for this thread) worth posting as the lay today.

6.30 Wexford Pallaskenry

A field of 14 relatively lightly raced novice hurdlers (with the exception of the 12 year old Top Flyer) in an average maiden. There are only 4 or 5 runners that can be seriously considered, although these race types at the lower level Irish tracks are occasionally won by a complete outsider, often to the surprise of punters who's cry of 'only in Ireland' is heard often.

Winner and runner-up in a couple of 24f P2P's in early 2017, although the form is difficult to evaluate and i'm not a follower of 'between the flag' racing in Ireland and UK to even start disecting it.

Ran in 3 maiden hurdles, 2 in December 2017, the other in February 2018 but didn't show any form whatsoever beaten an aggregate of 156L all on heavy going. Punters must have liked something with the horse as his odds were only 6/1, 14/1 and 8/1 respectively, but i suspect this was simply based on the trainer/jockey combination and P2P form, because his hurdle form was very poor.

His run LTO was an improvement, 11/4f (oddly) on this track and finished 2nd sandwiched between a couple of Gigginstown runners. The 3rd (previously rated 102 over hurdles) has won a chase since. The race was on good going and probably reason for the better run.

He's meeting Boston Spray, my idea of the winner who was runner up to the Alan Potts owned Madison To Monroe LTO. He looks to be an up and coming staying hurdler, trip and going will be in his favour.

It's not a 2 horse race by any means, although not many will get intoit and mzy probably finish strung out.

My last NH selection was on Sunday, and a lucky winner so i'm hoping lightening doesn't strike twice. 

Although he's fancied, i feel the likely favourite will finish in front of him and with my comments above are reasons for the lay of the day. Good luck.

Lay @ 3.15

20-Jun-18
17:31:26    18:30 Wexford
Pallaskenry - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128821991282 | Matched: 20-Jun-18 17:31:56    Lay    3.15    50.00    107.50
50.00
Matched
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 5:51 PM BST
Good Luck   Andrew  Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:43 PM BST
Photo Cry
Report domino14 June 20, 2018 6:44 PM BST
Well done Andrew, saw it traded like 1.04 !!! then drifted right out , must have got mugged close home ? didn't see race.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:45 PM BST
Not well done domino, got back up on the line.

I thought Que Bono had got it.
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 6:47 PM BST
Unlucky  Andrew  Sad

Come on SPAIN Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 20, 2018 6:48 PM BST
CryCryCry
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 20, 2018 6:48 PM BST
pm andrew
Report domino14 June 20, 2018 6:49 PM BST
Oh Sorry Andrew :(

It went like 1.08, 1.4, 1.8, 3.8, 10.5 on my screen and auto presumed was beat, as next saw was suspended.
Report deadbrain59 June 20, 2018 7:53 PM BST
iorishDevil
Report Knight Commander June 20, 2018 8:57 PM BST
Very unlucky there Andrew. Could hardly have been closer.
Report Lampus June 21, 2018 5:14 AM BST
Good  morning frpom a cloudless  Cornwall
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 21, 2018 5:26 AM BST
Good morning from the flatlandsCool
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 5:35 AM BST
Greeting from a wet and cloudy Sweden

Thanks for the comments guys.

A head bob cost layers (I thought he was beat in the photo) but it's a loss nevertheless, and now it's 10 overall that i didn't really envisage on May 29th when i was on 32/36 (4 losses).

I'm not looking for excuses but i suspect it's not coincidental that my form has dipped a bit since returning to work after convalescence. I simply don't have the free time to read the cards any longer, although another reason could be my lucky pin has got rusty Laugh

Spain certainly made me sweat a bit last night Wink

Only 11 days left for selections until the 2 threads end, so hopefully i can get 9 or 10 correct to get back on track.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 6:45 AM BST
A better card at RA today and for my outsiders i like ....

2.30 Charming Kind (10.5) EW
3.05 Main Street (18) EW

Wesley Wards Shang Shang Shang in the 2.30 has to be considered, although anything from him is often overbet at RA.

I think Order of St George will retain the Gold Cup, but it won't be easy.

In the football, i've layed Denmark HT/FT @ 3.8

Good luck
Report Lampus June 21, 2018 6:47 AM BST
Thanks Andrew  Good  Luck Happy
Report domino14 June 21, 2018 8:09 AM BST
@Andrew

Out of interest, it is of your opinion that the HT/FT lays you basically have a feeling that these are teams that may win the game, but there's a strong chance it could be 0-0 at HT, as a lot of the HT/FT lays you've done are on teams that you would expect to win the game overall ?

So I was just wondering if actually laying the team to be winning at HT may be less of a liability than the HT/FT price ? As the likelihood is, if these teams are winning at HT they'll likely win the match overall, given they are mainly the favoured team ?
Report big aitch June 21, 2018 10:18 AM BST
thanks Andrew, I keep missing these, must get on here more often
Report deadbrain59 June 21, 2018 10:27 AM BST
corals offering £1 stake 33/1 order of st George ,new customersMischief
Report Arklearkle June 21, 2018 11:57 AM BST
Andrew if what you say is true that this employment lark is interfering with the important things in life you should really  consider giving it up. Only joking of course - a great thread and great analysis.
Report Platini June 21, 2018 12:01 PM BST
betway were offering new customers 33/1 on Spain yesterday. Only a quid allowed at that price, but still Cool
Report cardenden June 21, 2018 12:14 PM BST
That. £1. Bet should be perfect for you deadbrain..your max bet.


G. O. D.    B. L. E. S. S. Y. O. U. M. Y. S. O. N.
Report cardenden June 21, 2018 1:58 PM BST

Jun 21, 2018 -- 6:45AM, Andrew in Sweden wrote:


A better card at RA today and for my outsiders i like ....2.30 Charming Kind (10.5) EW3.05 Main Street (18) EWWesley Wards Shang Shang Shang in the 2.30 has to be considered, although anything from him is often overbet at RA.I think Order of St George will retain the Gold Cup, but it won't be easy.In the football, i've layed Denmark HT/FT @ 3.8Good luck


well done on the football andrew,,

Report cardenden June 21, 2018 3:58 PM BST
up u go
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 5:09 PM BST
Out of interest, it is of your opinion that the HT/FT lays you basically have a feeling that these are teams that may win the game, but there's a strong chance it could be 0-0 at HT, as a lot of the HT/FT lays you've done are on teams that you would expect to win the game overall ?

So I was just wondering if actually laying the team to be winning at HT may be less of a liability than the HT/FT price ? As the likelihood is, if these teams are winning at HT they'll likely win the match overall, given they are mainly the favoured team ?


Domino,

I'm not a regular football better, but more so in the bigger event games. The HT/FT lay is a bet i like and if you look at results so far you will see many games are a draw at HT.

I don't have any specific rules, and i don't necessarily lay a team that is a strong favourite, Denmark today is a typical example. Australia gave France a good run and were possibly unlucky to lose (an own goal).

Additionally rather than lay a team to lose in 90 minutes, i generally (but not always) lay the HT/FT as you get 2 bites of the cherry, although the odds are slightly higher of course.

In my opinion it's how you perceive the odds to be in any particular game. On Monday i layed Poland at 90 minutes because on this occasion i felt the odds were better for the full game.

I didn't play the France game today because i felt they could win at any time, as Spain yesterday and Russia on day one (amongst others). I've had a good success rate with the HT/FT plays, but we all know this type of bet actually relies on minimal betting skill and a fair bit of luck.

I hope this makes sense.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 5:12 PM BST
Thanks for the comments above guys Grin
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 6:12 PM BST
So much for my 2 outsiders posted earlier today, i think Main Street is still coming around Swinley Bottom as i type these words.

Wesley Ward finally got off the mark with the oddly named Shang Shang Shang and at quite a good price (5/1) i expected it to be shorter. The Aussies also did us a favour by converting a penalty in the first half against Denmark.

Order Of St George was never travelling well, almost like Cracksman yesterday.

A shortish write up, primarilly due to a longer day at the office than usual, but compensation awaits as tomorrow is a public holiday in Sweden (midsummer day) the biggest drinking festival in Scandinavia.

Staying in Ireland for the lay this evening albeit on the flat this time, but if it wins in a photo (as last night) my experience of working in the aerospace industry will become invaluable as my laptop will take flight out of the kitchen window and travel a considerable distance.

7.05 Leopardstown Dawn Trouper

A Dawn Approach Colt trained by Jim Bolger. Unraced as a 2 year old, and placed 3rd in 2 10f maidens at The Curragh and Cork, the latter only 4 days ago. His first run showed promise beaten 1.75L by the AOB trained Liberius Tiberious. The form hasn't really been franked since although the winner did finish 3rd of 5 in a listed race since, albeit beaten 5.25L.

His run LTO is difficult to assess (winner aside) as the rest are average at best and i don't feel he really improved from his debut run.

The going shouldn't be an issue and on breeding at least may prefer the shorter trip, but i feel there's a couple in the race who are better.

One of them is the AOB trained Spanish Point who has some 2 year old form that reads well in the context of this race. Forget his run LTO it was in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He could win, but my idea of the winner is the once raced fully Hasimiyya trained by Dermot Weld who was down the field in what may turn out to be a half-decent fillies maiden at The Curragh on heavy going. She ran much better than her placing would indicate and will appreciate the better ground. I've backed this one EW.

There are several potential winners of the race and the Coolmore owned Bright Eyed also trained by Dermot Weld wouldn't be a mega surprise if she won on debut (although likely to need the run) but there's a lot of dead wood as well. I'm hopeful more than confident, but i'm happy with my selection as the lay of the day.

Lay @ 3.50

Note i had to increase the odds slighty to get matche, but for sake of this thread will use the higher (3.50)

21-Jun-18
18:05:02    19:05 Leopardstown
Dawn Trouper - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128895188126 | Matched: 21-Jun-18 18:05:03    Lay    3.50    16.92    42.30
16.92
Matched

21-Jun-18
18:00:42    19:05 Leopardstown
Dawn Trouper - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128894831168 | Matched: 21-Jun-18 18:03:51    Lay    3.40    19.05    45.72
19.05
Matched

21-Jun-18
17:55:35    19:05 Leopardstown
Dawn Trouper - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128894426126 | Matched: 21-Jun-18 17:59:52    Lay    3.30    14.03    32.27
14.03
Matched
Report Lampus June 21, 2018 6:17 PM BST
Good Luck  Andrew Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 6:56 PM BST
Thanks Lampus, i hope i don't nedd it though Wink

I've had a fun bet in the football as i feel there could be some goals

HT/FT

Argentina/Croatia
Croatia/Argentina

I like 2-1 as a final score, didn't play it though.

21-Jun-18
18:50:17    Argentina v Croatia
Croatia/Argentina - Half Time/Full Time
Betfair Bet ID 1:128899018214 | Matched: 21-Jun-18 18:50:17    Back    40.00    5.00    --
195.00
Matched

21-Jun-18
18:50:08    Argentina v Croatia
Argentina/Croatia - Half Time/Full Time
Betfair Bet ID 1:128899007744 | Matched: 21-Jun-18 18:50:08    Back    55.00    5.00    --
270.00
Matched
Report Lampus June 21, 2018 7:09 PM BST
THANK YOU  ANDREW HappyHappy
Report EVILROYSLADE June 21, 2018 7:09 PM BST
Back in the swing Andrew! Congrats!
Report hologon June 21, 2018 7:09 PM BST
You are some judge well done
Report BESTMATE44 June 21, 2018 7:10 PM BST
Thanks Andrew,i layed it very large,i owe you one!
Report Arklearkle June 21, 2018 7:13 PM BST
Wd Andrew
Report cardenden June 21, 2018 7:16 PM BST
deadbrain ,wont be able to understand all those  football bets andrew
Report Knight Commander June 21, 2018 7:18 PM BST
Nice one Andrew! WD Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 9:07 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys. much appreciated. Glad to get back on track.

Argentina were poor, i doubt they would score if they played for another 90 minutes.

Cardenden, i don't think i understand them Laugh
Report Andrew in Sweden June 21, 2018 9:42 PM BST
Wednesday

Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day) :

Progress 38/43
Daily loss -£107.50 Sad
Running p/l +£1448.50 Grin

Overall progress 45/55 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 59 days (4 void)
Overall profit +£1277 Grin

Thursday

Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day) :

Progress 39/44
Daily profit +£50 Grin
Running p/l +£1498.50 Grin

Overall progress 46/56 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 60 days (4 void)
Overall profit +£1327 Grin
Report Movewiththetimes June 21, 2018 10:29 PM BST
WD AIS very good form reading Cool
Report Lampus June 22, 2018 5:24 AM BST
Top of the morning Andrew and all
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 5:35 AM BST
Good morning Lampus, Ghost and anyone else that's awake at this unearthly hour Wink Mind you i'm an hour ahead of UK time.

Midsummer eve, a big event here so a free day away from the office, and i will get to watch the 4th day of RA on TV

Mwtt, thank you.
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 22, 2018 5:45 AM BST
Morning all.Cool

Hot here todayHappyCry
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 6:54 AM BST
Does anyone know if there is a Royal Ascot top jockey market on here (not sportsbook) ?

I can't find one, that's suprising.
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 7:20 AM BST
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/racing-specials/royal-ascot/royal-ascot-specials/top-jockey

Not many firms priced up mate. Only a 3 horse race as well!
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 7:21 AM BST
Ryan Moore 6/4 Bet365
Frankie 6/4 Ladbrokes

£100 on each, gives a free £50, nice little 25% ROI
Report deadbrain59 June 22, 2018 7:25 AM BST
abba level off 14 daysPlain
Report hologon June 22, 2018 7:44 AM BST
365 go 4/7 Moore now
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 7:48 AM BST
Someone at Bet365 clearly spotted their mistake !
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 7:52 AM BST
domino,

Thanks. I don't have bookmker accounts (except exchanges). I want to back RM, i think he's a good thing, even though he's one behind FD. He's got much the better mounts over the next 2 days and rides the 'good thing' on Saturday (and i'm not referring to Crystal Ocean) Wink

db,

abba level off 14 days

Incorrect.

June 7th - Overall profit +£1177.50
June 21st - Overall profit +£1327.00
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 8:01 AM BST
I would also expect Ryan with his mounts to ground out more than Frankie over the last 2 days, Frankie appeared to have better rides in the early part of the week. His ride on First Eleven could prove costly to him.

That said I wouldn't bet Ryan in the opener today, and I hope the handbrake is off Delano today, as the ride he got in the Derby was rather disgusting and he's "bouncing" at home and both himself and Hunting Horn can massively boost Saxon Warrior's Irish Derby credentials with wins this week. I don't like Clemmie as a horse, but she has to be respected, whilst Sioux Nation is what I call a nearly horse. That said tomorrow he could really take the bull by the horns. Cardini works like a machine at home and whilst very poor first two runs I would not be surprised to leave that form well behind and that's before Crystal Ocean, Merchant Navy, Van Beethoven, and Thomas Hobson who look massive players tomorrow.

I half feel he may get 1 winner today, 2 at a push.

I think Frankie on the whole has a better book today. Raa Atoll for me went for the wrong race, he could run well today but doubt he can win, he should have gone for the hcp with his mark of 93. That said Veracious, Thundering Blue, and Betty F look to have solid chances. I would not be surprised to see both get a winner today and that would give Frankie a 1 advantage tomorrow and therefore Ryan Moore will surely be bigger than 4/6 at the start of tomorrow (the best price he is at present).

Shockingly Frankie only has 3 rides Saturday with the Aussie Sprinter his best mount, but I can see Ryan getting 2 or 3 winners easy on Saturday.

So like you I agree Ryan will edge it, but I'm weighing up in my own mind if it's better to wait until after today, as I think many will feel his book today is strong and will expect him to be level at least at the end of today, but I'm not so sure, although I firmly think 2 will be his minimum amount of winners tomorrow.
Report hologon June 22, 2018 8:15 AM BST
Good points you make Domino
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 8:44 AM BST
Domino,

Thanks for the write up. I was hoping Delano would run in the Irish Derby, not that i think he will win (i've stated on several threads Saxon Warrior is almost a good thing) but simply just another runner to better the odds for SW. I think he's more of a St Leger horse anyway.

RM has some good mounts today and my thinking was he may draw level by close of play tonight. Ignoring the obvious ones, i like the filly Hence in the Sandringham at 5.00.

Coolmore paid $2 million for this one as a yearling, obviously a bargain as it took her 8 races to lose her maiden tag Wink. Seriously, i think the win will have given her the confidence she may have lacked although she did run in a couple of decent maidens (Happily won the first of them). Well bred, trip and ground ideal. I've backed her W/P at 17/4.5.

Good luck.
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 8:48 AM BST
Hence is not a filly I like at all, but wish you well. She has her own ideas about the game and whilst the big field may help her weave her way through, I don't think Ryan is the sort of jockey to suit her. I think Poetic Charm could be a little overpriced ew in that, and is interestingly second of the Godolphin pair in the betting but has the first jockey on.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 9:12 AM BST
Domino,

Don't burst my bubble, i'm dreaming of untold riches with respect to Hence LOL Laugh

Seriously, trying to find a winner or even a placing in the typical large field handicaps at RA is demanding to say the least and should be treated accordingly. For me it's more of a fun bet and an interest as i'm off work today (mid-summer eve) and can watch the race.
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 9:18 AM BST
:)

Switzerland & Iceland (Draw no bet) double for me today on the footy :)
Report Arklearkle June 22, 2018 9:25 AM BST
Andrew if you have bf exchange you must have sportsbook where you can get 4/5 RM. A worry is that while Ryan is only one winner behind, Frankie has a second which would count if it gets tight.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 9:43 AM BST
Arklearkle,

Many thanks.

I did see the sportsbook market, i was sort of hoping for better then 4/5 with the knowledge that Frankie was 1 in front. I wasn't necessarily relying on any RM winners today although he does have some decent chances of course and several that could be runner up (hopefully in the first).

Domino,

Good luck with the football. I want Switzerland to win as i have a bet @ 170 for outright winners (posted on this forum) that i will trade at some stage in the future.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 11:33 AM BST
Back on track yesterday and the winner Spanish Point looked as though he can be backed again in a similar maiden, he travelled really well and won going away.

Not a bad day for the thread, the lay got beat and Shang Shang Shang (5/1) was mentioned. In the football, the Denmark HT/FT lay also got beat, but on the other side of the coin, Order of St George never looked like winning the gold cup, the two outsiders i mentioned are probably just being unsaddled as i type and Argentina were dire (I needed them to score first). 

A stay at home day due to mid-summer eve, a national holiday and a big event in Sweden, so no excuse for finding time to find a lay. I was almost sure what the selection was going to be as early as last night and to be honest i haven't reviewed many cards at the moment anyway.

2.30 Royal Ascot Just Wonderful

A well bred, once raced, 2 year old Dansili filly, trained by AOB and owned by 'the lads' so a risky lay straight away.

Won a good fillies maiden at The Curragh with some decent types behind. Beat Lethal Promise a neck and she has since finished runner-up and a winner in fillies maidens. Gossamer Wings was 1.5L back in 3rd place and similarly won a filles maiden and was runner-up in the Group 2 Queen Mary stakes on Wednesday. Several of the others have run since, albeit without winning.

She ran well to win, even though it was a messy race with the field splitting into two groups wide apart on opposing rails. She looked as though another 2 furlongs wouldn't come amiss and her breeding supports this.

There aren't many negatives about her, but in my opinion she's meeting the speedier 6f types today and there's one in particular i like, her stablemate Fairyland. I actually highlighted her on the Van Beethoven thread (May 26th) stating she was the best 2 year old filly i had seen this year and i haven't changed my mind since.

Unbeaten in two races over 6f, the first beating Mindt by 1.75L (won since by 3L) in a Naas Maiden and then winning a listed race at The Curragh beating Van Beethoven, yet another AOB runner by 2.5L, looking really classy in doing so.

Whilst i feel Fairyland will win, i wouldn't call the Albany a two horse race by any means, there's any amount of improvement in these lightly raced fillies.

An outsider at a good price (32 on here) could be Chicas Amigas who won her maiden on debut and finished runner-up next time out in a listed race at Naas. She has to improve and that's probably a given, but whether she's good enough or not remains to be seen.

There's several unbeaten fillies and from various countries, UK, Ireland, France, Germany and USA so a real international race.

The early pace will no doubt come from the Wesley Ward trained Stillwater Cove (trainer won the Norfolk Stakes yesterday) but i've no doubt it will be shared by several and a few may be out on their legs approaching the final furlong playing to the strengths of the AOB fillies.

It's difficult to predict if the field will split into two groups today, there are 18 runners after all, but most of the early pace is drawn low and this will assist Fairyland in stall 5 (Just Wonderful is in 10).

There's a possibility of watering and sometimes this can create a draw bias, but since the track was relaid it's difficult to know the effects, although in extreme cases of rain (unlikely today) tends to drain to the stands side.

Readers will note the poster Domino has a dedicated thread for the Albany stakes, but i would like to point out i have not been influenced by it in any way, even though i respect his opinions and at least we agree today. I make my own decisions and as stated above, i had already sang the praises of Fairyland on previous threads. 

The lay is obviously risky, it's possible her class could see her through, but i really rate Fairyland and layers still have several more running for them anyway. I'm not confident in the sense of a good thing, but i'm happy with my selection as the lay of the day. Good luck.   

Lay @ 3.50

22-Jun-18
08:01:11    14:30 Ascot
Just Wonderful - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128924568128 | Matched: 22-Jun-18 08:01:12    Lay    3.50    50.00    125.00
50.00
Matched

In other races i like (backs unless indicated) .....

3.40 Invincible Army W/P (9.0/3.25) and lay Equilateral (2.42) in the 3TBP market.
5.00 Hence W/P - see my post at 08.44

World Cup

Nigeria vs Iceland draw @ 3.20
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 11:41 AM BST
@Andrew
Back on track yesterday and the winner Spanish Point looked as though he can be backed again in a similar maiden, he travelled really well and won going away.


Please read the above and realise the mistake you just made hahahaahah
Report domino14 June 22, 2018 11:44 AM BST
I agree with you entirely about Just Wonderful Andrew, and for me you have at least 12 horses with similar or better form running for you, which is why I to feel she is a cracking lay at the odds.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 12:05 PM BST
Domino,

Mistake ? It's really early for me, i rarely wake up until the first race Wink

Do you mean backed again in a similar maiden ?

With a penalty ?
Report Lampus June 22, 2018 12:09 PM BST
Good  Luck Andrew and layers Happy
Report kavvie June 22, 2018 12:14 PM BST
cant be done andrew.a maiden if for ones that havent won a race.  he could run in a novice with a penalty
Report mini me June 22, 2018 12:15 PM BST
Good luck (I suppose) Andrew, but, for me Just Wonderful is one of the bets of the day...

Cheers
Cool
Report Andrew in Sweden June 22, 2018 12:21 PM BST
Ok thanks Kavvie (and domino)

I've always used the term 'maiden' for all novice and similar races. Shows what i know LOL

mini,

I guess you mean for your lay thread ? Laugh
Report cardenden June 22, 2018 1:26 PM BST

Jun 22, 2018 -- 7:25AM, deadbrain59 wrote:


abba level off 14 days


http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31355225/short-back-bets#flvWelcomeHeader


-11.  after 7 days

Report unclepuncle June 22, 2018 1:32 PM BST
More great tipping over the last week Andrew.Cool

I’m with you on Just Wonderful - probably the best classic prospect in the race but vulnerable to these more precocious types.
I imagine they would have run in her in the Chesham (like September last year) if she had qualified for it.

Personally like Main Edition who thrashed Pogo last time and he’d been second to Advertise (2nd in Coventry) previously, though I never seem to get Mark Johnston’s horses right.Sad
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