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Andrew in Sweden
23 Apr 18 13:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 9,810 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
I'm going to post a daily nap lay to a level stake until the end of the month. I'll keep the prices short enough to make it interesting, and only use this thread to monitor progress. 

18.00 Navan Washington DC

One of the stables global travellers and won this race last year after a prep race in Meydan. AOB taking the same route this year after finishing 4th there, but all wins have been on good or firm. Will be soft today and showers are forecast for this afternoon. I also feel WDC needs 6f to be at his best these days, certainly his style of running would support it. The top 3 in the betting are close on ratings, and the English runner Final Venture is not out of it, but i think Son of Rest (who is probably better than his form would suggest) will win it. Good luck all.

Lay at 2.60

23-Apr-18
09:57:50    18:00 Navan
Washington DC - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:123248570104 | Matched: 23-Apr-18 12:56:56    Lay    2.60    50.00    80.00
50.00
Matched
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Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 14, 2018 7:31 PM BST
Tar.Cool

Hope it gets pulled out in the next hourLaugh
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 14, 2018 8:25 PM BST
BooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooLaugh

Got matched for £50 in running

NuniteLove
Report Andrew in Sweden June 14, 2018 8:29 PM BST
Ghost,

VWD, a nice one Grin
Report stridingedge June 14, 2018 8:34 PM BST
I lost what happened?
Report stridingedge June 14, 2018 8:34 PM BST
ie I thought he wanted cotton club what was the £50 bet in running

soz for being fick like.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 14, 2018 8:35 PM BST
A void day, so no change to the p/l except to add the day of course.

Summary of lays (all lay stakes to win exactly £50 per day):

Progress 36/40
Daily profit £50
Running p/l +£1456 Grin

Overall progress 42/50 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 53 days (3 void)
Overall profit £1369.50 Grin
Report REDROB June 14, 2018 8:44 PM BST
assuming he took a nifty out of it in runnin striding.
Report angeleyz June 14, 2018 9:09 PM BST
well the end to a pretty brutal day for me. done by a head earlier now done by a nose and i had for me a fairly large bet on ad libitum there too. pffff
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 5:12 AM BST
angeleyz,

You don't need me to tell you that layers don't always get it right, it's impossible, and occasionally take a few hits in succession. I had 2 losing days in a weekend not so long ago as you know, and whilst it's a set back, you can't dwell on it. When the lay wins in a photo that also makes it worse. I was on 14/14 and lost on a head bob, otherwise i could have gone on to 18/18 Sad

Dust yourself down, nag the hubby, borrow his visa card to go shopping, have a drink and look for another horse lay today. Good luck. Laugh
Report Lampus June 15, 2018 5:15 AM BST
Good  morning  Andrew  and  to  all  nice  people
Report Lampus June 15, 2018 5:26 AM BST
Lay  Egypt  maybe  Confused
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 15, 2018 6:12 AM BST
Morning all.Cool

Redrob is correct nicked a £50 in running thought it was going to win for about 4 secondsCryHappy

Another day another dawns in punter landCool
Report nijinsky01 June 15, 2018 6:34 AM BST
Only recently came across this most interesting thread so many sensible guys on here got fed up generally with the forum so many idiots on here talking through there pockets will continue to follow good luck guys and well done Andrew.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 6:51 AM BST
Good morning all,

The lay will be posted tonight guys, i need to go to work and save the Swedish aerospace industry from bankrupcy Laugh

Good luck and have a fun day

Nijinsky,

You were a great one Wink
Report Burkey1885 June 15, 2018 7:52 AM BST
Still going well Andrew  ,  too lad , but that footy lay , the the Russians are not s great side , but ant team playing a fission team on thier own patch in domestic football find it notoriously diff to beat them ,  in short I don’t want to be bscking against them ,   But u were brave enough to put it up so no one can knock that ,  too many pocket talkers and fence sitters on this place u can count on one hand the posi posters  , who are ajways fair game an easy targets fir the cant make it pay punters ,   Plenty silly punters doing golden boot and thier respective teams to win cup and get the double , happend once in fifty years ,  a stronger pointer is a really good goal keeper look at last 6 winners all had outstanding keepers ,  looking st good things , 5/4 Senegal to qualify from group looks free money to me  , good luck travelling today Portugal earky sat !
Report madrigal June 15, 2018 11:12 AM BST
Just to give you another option--Uruquay win.
I think Uruquay need to beat Egypt and KSA to get out of the group.
I don't do goals scored but 1 should be enough Shocked
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 15, 2018 4:34 PM BST
Still going well Andrew  ,  too lad , but that footy lay , the the Russians are not s great side ,

Mart you D C Laugh

Unless ive read it wrong Our Scandinavian Poldark backed the Ruskies not laid them

Do you ever get fook all rightLaughLaugh
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 15, 2018 4:35 PM BST
10-Jun-18
11:00:32    Russia v Saudi Arabia
Russia - Match Odds
Betfair Bet ID 1:128038437387 | Matched: 12-Jun-18 08:42:45    Back    1.48    400.00    --
192.00
Matched

Didnt think i was madWinkCrazy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 5:34 PM BST
Evening Guys.

Mart,

Ghost is correct, I backed Russia (see above). There is no way i would back Saudi Arabia to beat any of the teams in Group A, in fact, make that any group.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 5:44 PM BST
An earlier than normal finish at work today, so enjoying a drink in the main square, one eye on the RP cards (laptop) the other on tanned, body-to-die-for Swedish women. It's horrendous living here in summertime, but maybe i was born to suffer for being a bad lad in a previous life Wink

I had a short list of two picked out, one of them Vibrant in the last race at Aintree. I saw High Jinx win LTO, he had it won a long way out, travelling really well and won easily. A classy colt in bygone days and although a 10 year old is still enthusiastic about the game. I almost selected Vibrant as the lay, but something is telling me to go with my other choice, so i'm taking the intuition route.

7.10 Goodwood Ship Of The Fen

A small field of 3 year olds covered by 11 lb in the ratings, although the bottom weight runs off 78 with the others on 86, 86 and 89.

The likely favourite Doctor Richard Kimble (oldies on here will remember The Fugitive) is the most exposed having raced 11 times, but the others are relatively lightly raced.

Ship Of The Fan ran 5 times as a 2 year old, winning once and placing twice. The runner-up form in the class 2 maiden over CD hasn't really worked out as well as might be expected.

He won a class 3 at Nottingham beating Baileys Excelerate 2L and this form reads better as the latter has won since, albeit in a small race.

In his first race as a 3 year old, he won a 10.2f class 4 handicap, but of those that have run since, none have won and the form appears as average.

Ran in a class 2 handicap at Epsom LTO, but finished 5th, beaten 6L by Connect. Not necessarily a bad run by any means, but was struggling to go with the pace 2f and couldn't quicken up in the final 100 yards.

Has been a little slowly away on his last 2 runs.

The going may be a negative tonight. Only raced on good to firm once before and finished well beaten, even though he was 5/4f that day.

Will be racing over almost 2f further than tried so far, and although there's no problem with the sire as far as the 12f trip is concerned, the dam (and dam sire) don't exactly fit this category.

It's difficult to know where the pace is coming from, and it may turn tactical, even a crawl with a sprint by all 4 in the final furlong, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Mark Johnston runner Doctor Richard Kimble made the running.

It's not a race i would be confident about finding the winner, they're closely matched in my opinion, but i would probably plump for Bartholmeu Dias, who had form with no less than Masar, September and Invincible Army as a 2 year old, and we all know how good they are.

As in recent days, i'm hopeful rather than confident, but layers certainly have 3 others running for them. It's a very open race, so based on my comments above are reasons for the lay of the day. Good luck.

Lay @ 3.08

15-Jun-18
17:30:34    19:10 Goodwood
Ship of The Fen - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128425110988 | Matched: 15-Jun-18 17:30:34    Lay    3.08    50.00    104.15
50.00
Matched
Report Lampus June 15, 2018 5:44 PM BST
Good Evening Andrew
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 5:45 PM BST
Strange odds, but i guess it's an average.
Report Movewiththetimes June 15, 2018 5:46 PM BST
Good luck
Report Lampus June 15, 2018 5:46 PM BST
Good  Luck  Layers Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 15, 2018 5:46 PM BST
Andrew my dear aeronautical friend dew yew know what without googgling is the real ship of the fen??
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 5:47 PM BST
Evening Lampus,

Hope you're doing well on the football.

No bets on it today for me, at least so far.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 5:54 PM BST
Ghost,

Absolutely ............................................................ no idea Laugh

But i doubt it's anything to do with aerospace.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 6:02 PM BST
Mart,

looking st good things, 5/4 Senegal to qualify from group looks free money to me

Defintely not free money, Columbia and Poland score for fun. Senegal, although not a bad African side, and have Mane up front are not in the same class, but good luck.
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 15, 2018 6:49 PM BST
Its Ely cathedral.

Sails above the fens like a shipCool
Report Airman June 15, 2018 7:10 PM BST
Good luck AIS, although with the depth of study you do luck plays only a very partGrin
Report Lampus June 15, 2018 7:13 PM BST
THANK YOU ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 15, 2018 7:17 PM BST
Hannibal Lector (Quadraped version) In the raceAngry

But our Andrew ate them up

Be careful out there backers.

DODGCool
Report stridingedge June 15, 2018 7:21 PM BST
C'est formidable monsieur Andrew Cool
Report Movewiththetimes June 15, 2018 7:36 PM BST
Quality Cool
Report Deltâ June 15, 2018 8:50 PM BST
A i S

Swedish G/National and Champion hurdle tomorrow


can you stick the winners up


tar
Report Lampus June 15, 2018 9:01 PM BST
Vivant Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 9:23 PM BST
Many thanks for the comments guys.

My fancy for the race .... but i would probably plump for Bartholmeu Dias

RP comment Tracked leaders, ridden and hung right from over 2f out, every chance when tried to bite rival inside final furlong

Beat a neck !

If Carlsberg did excuses .... Grin
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 9:24 PM BST
Delta,

I have absolutely no idea on both counts, but Lucinda Russell might know Wink
Report Andrew in Sweden June 15, 2018 9:30 PM BST
Ghost,

Thanks for the 'Ship Of The Fen' lesson, i had to goggle it. Interesting.

As for Scandinavian Poldark LOL Laugh
Report angeleyz June 15, 2018 9:38 PM BST
ty andrew and very well done this evening
Report Knight Commander June 15, 2018 10:58 PM BST
WD Andrew Happy
Report charliepotheen June 15, 2018 11:42 PM BST
Well done once again AndrewHappy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 16, 2018 4:19 AM BST
MORNING ALLExcited
Report Andrew in Sweden June 16, 2018 4:38 AM BST
Morning Ghost,

Brilliant football game last night

angeleyz, KC and charlie,

Thank you
Report Andrew in Sweden June 16, 2018 4:48 AM BST
Summary of lays (all lay stakes to win exactly £50 per day):

Progress 37/41
Daily profit £50
Running p/l +£1506 Grin

Overall progress 43/51 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 54 days (3 void)
Overall profit £1419.50 Grin

Todays lay will be on the Saturday and Sunday thread.
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 16, 2018 6:16 AM BST
Sure was AndrewHappy

That Ronaldo fella has a future in the game in my opinion
Report Andrew in Sweden June 16, 2018 6:17 AM BST
One game wonderboy Wink
Report Lampus June 18, 2018 5:30 AM BST
Good  morning on Ascot Eve Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 6:34 AM BST
Good Lampus, Ghost (when he arrives) et all,

Ascot eve ........... like a child on the 24th Decemeber Love
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 6:34 AM BST
It appears morning has been cancelled in Sweden Laugh
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 6:52 AM BST
Lampus,

Lay up this evening, the Svenska aerospace industry is depending on me Laugh
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 6:54 AM BST
In the football, i've layed Sweden HT/FT and backed Belgium with a few bob. No bet in the England game. Good luck.
Report Lampus June 18, 2018 10:23 AM BST
Good Luck Sir Andrew  Happy
Report big aitch June 18, 2018 12:19 PM BST
I put a free £5 bet on Sweden, hope you are wrong Andrew.

Jacob Black is carrying too much weight in the 3-50 Carl, so looks a good lay, backed Mischief Managed and Arcadian Angel in ew cross doubles with Mudawaan and Our Charlie Brown on the 4-10 Ayr
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 5:00 PM BST
BA,

Looks like we both won on the Sweden game Grin
Report Lampus June 18, 2018 5:30 PM BST
Evening  AndrewWell done on  the  footy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 18, 2018 5:43 PM BST
MorningExcited
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 5:47 PM BST
Lampus,

Thank you.

No lay today, i've had a look this evening and although there are a couple of 'chancers' i would rather let them run and call it a void day. We were unlucky yesterday and i wouldn't want to risk another just for the sake of it. We have RA to look forward to tomorrow anyway. Good luck
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 5:49 PM BST
Ghost,

LOL

Is that early for tomorrow, or belated today ? Laugh
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 18, 2018 5:55 PM BST
Was a bit rushed this morning had a few fathers day shandys yesterdayWinkCrazy
Report knot in wood June 18, 2018 5:56 PM BST
i was going to post lay my cliff horse BERLIOS and he went and finally won ShockedHappy

glad i didn't now.
Report Lampus June 18, 2018 5:57 PM BST
Thanks  Andrew as allways a no bet bet is better then a losing one Grin



Chav  ASCOT  LoveLoveLoveLoveBlushLoveLove
Report Andrew in Sweden June 18, 2018 6:01 PM BST
KIW,

Deltas' favourite trainer Wink
Report Deltâ June 18, 2018 7:06 PM BST
he's trying to muscle in on my bird  A i S Devil
Report knot in wood June 18, 2018 7:13 PM BST
she's a bit tall for me. Grin
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 5:13 AM BST
Happy  ASCOT  and Merry Stradford everyone Happy
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 5:18 AM BST
Good  morning Andrew and  All
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 5:27 AM BST
Morning Lampus

Greetings from a Grey and cloudy Sweden, even though they did win eventually last night.

Stradford ?
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 19, 2018 5:42 AM BST
Morning gentsCool
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 5:47 AM BST
A void day yesterday, so no change to the p/l except that highlighted in bold.

Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day) :

Progress 37/41
Daily profit -
Running p/l +£1506 Grin

Overall progress 44/53 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 57 days (4 void)
Overall profit +£1334.50 Grin

The lay may possibly be up before i go to work, if not, this evening.

There are two running at Royal Ascot i would consider laying, but they're both slightly outside my odds limit at the moment.

3.05 Clayx (impressive LTO - this is tougher - short break since last run - Sergei Prokofiev).
3.40 Battaash (best form on soft - edgy disposition - Ascot track ? - Lady Aurelia)

I also like two EW back bets at good odds

3.40 Mabs Cross @ 23
5.00 Lagostovegas @ 13.5

I have layed Columbia HT/FT @ 2.96 and Poland @ 2.4 (90 mins)

Good luck
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 5:47 AM BST
Morning Ghost
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 6:13 AM BST
Good Luck  ANDREW Happy
Report GLASGOWCALLING June 19, 2018 6:40 AM BST
GOOD MORNING all from a bright and warm CHESTER. fancy a small win and place coeur de lion ( 5-0 ascot ).

ground and distance will suit, looked in form last month at chester, should give a good account in an open race. Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:50 AM BST
Lampus,

Thanks and likewise.

Please note neither of the above consitute a lay for this thread (not matched yet) so i will post tonight.

Glasgow,

A very difficult race. Good luck
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 6:53 AM BST
Off  for a jog and swim in misty Cornwall
All the  best  backers and layers  Happy
Report big aitch June 19, 2018 12:09 PM BST
Columbia 3.4 now hf/ft Andrew, good for a trade, I don't normally do hf/ft are they in play as well?
Report big aitch June 19, 2018 12:11 PM BST
Poland 4.3 hf/ft, would both have been good trades
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 3:55 PM BST
Battaash  Mabs Cross   Happy
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 5:08 PM BST
Thank you  Andrew  LagstovegasHappyHappy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:14 PM BST
3.05 Clayx won @ 2/1 Sad
3.40 Battaash 2nd @ 9/4 Grin

I also like two EW back bets at good odds

3.40 Mabs Cross @ 23 3rd @ 20/1 Grin
5.00 Lagostovegas @ 13.5 Won @ 10/1 Grin

I have layed Columbia HT/FT @ 2.96 Grinand Poland @ 2.4 (90 mins)
Grin

Not a bad day Grin
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:24 PM BST
No time for a reasoning post for the lay today as i needed to bering some office work home.

7.20 Beverley El Astronaute

19-Jun-18
18:06:34    19:30 Beverley
El Astronaute - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:128751593886 | Matched: 19-Jun-18 18:10:10    Lay    3.10    50.00    105.00
50.00
Matched

Good luck all
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:25 PM BST
7.30 Beverley
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 6:26 PM BST
Good Luck Andrew  and  thanks for a great day  Happy
Report deadbrain59 June 19, 2018 7:18 PM BST
not too shabby at all WDGrin
Report cardenden June 19, 2018 7:33 PM BST
Y  O  U     D  A      M  A  N      A  N  D  R  E  W
Report Lampus June 19, 2018 7:39 PM BST
Andrew  what can i say but THANK  YOU  HappyHappy
Report cardenden June 19, 2018 7:40 PM BST
HES A GENIUS
Report Knight Commander June 19, 2018 7:55 PM BST
WD Andrew Happy
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 8:46 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys Grin

Big Aitch,

Yes HT/FT are always in play, but i rarely trade them

The advantage with laying HT/FT is two bites of the Cherry, albeit slightly higher odds of course, but it's paid off for me often in this cup. Look at the HT results so far, many draws.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 8:48 PM BST
Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day) :

Progress 38/42
Daily profit +£50
Running p/l +£1556 Grin

Overall progress 45/54 (including Saturday and Sunday thread). 58 days (4 void)
Overall profit +£1384.50 Grin
Report BESTMATE44 June 19, 2018 8:49 PM BST
Well done Andrew,i needed that lay to get back to respectability,many thanks.
Report smirnoff2therescue June 19, 2018 8:54 PM BST
been impressive on both counts Andrew footy and the horse lays  - giving the game away now but theres been a ton of penalties in the WC so far and its usually been priced up around the 7/2-4/1 mark in every game - books have been caught out becos of VAR introduction after horse has bolted so to speak wiv at least 11 pens so far in 15/16 games.
Dont think they will be pricing up at that price from now on WinkWink
Report smirnoff2therescue June 19, 2018 8:58 PM BST
sorry 10 in 17 games as just mentioned on BBC WinkWink
Report Movewiththetimes June 19, 2018 11:56 PM BST
WD AIS
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 5:17 AM BST
Good  morning ANDREW
Report therobster27 June 20, 2018 6:07 AM BST
Morning Andrew, haven’t had much time in the last few weeks for the forum and in general horse racing, right in the middle of moving and I only wish there were more hours in a day…..It’s getting stupid nowCrazy

Laying is really not my bag, but credit where credits due you have gave reasoning and logic for all of your lays and have had great success, also with some of your backs I might add….. It’s quite possibly the most interesting and viewed thread presently on the forum.  Win lose or draw it’s always nice to see this type of thread that gives some food for thought, I hope the success continues and your hard work rewarded. A very big WD Cool
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:13 AM BST
Good morning Lampus,

Thanks for the comments guys Grin

A lack lustre card at Ascot today and apart from the Cracksman in the PoW, i don't really like much. I haven't backed him yet, still pondering.

I've had a fun W/P @ 100 on Red Balloons in the 2.30 (now 140) although i don't really expect her to win, but with a little luck in running (drawn well) could run into a 4th or 5th place. If she wins, you'll hear my shouting in UK Laugh

On a more serious back bet, i like Burnt Sugar in the 5.00 RA. He ran much better than his 8th place on this track LTO would indicate (finished very strongly). I've been waiting for him to run since. Currently trading @ 38 and 8.8.

The football this evening looks to have a one sided look to them and Spain must surely be almost a certainty to win, albeit at restrictive odds.

In the first game i've played both teams (Portugal and Morocco) to score at 2.22.

The daily lay will be posted this evening.

Good luck
Report Andrew in Sweden June 20, 2018 6:15 AM BST
Therobster,

Many thanks for your kind comments, very much appreciated Grin

Bad timing moving during RA week LOL

Good luck today
Report Lampus June 20, 2018 6:15 AM BST
Thanks Andrew Good Luck  Happy
Report GHOSTOFALEXBIRD June 20, 2018 6:34 AM BST
Morning sweetbeansWink
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