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16 Apr 18 12:15
Date Joined: 01 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 1,693 | Blogger: DIFERENT GRAVY 12's blog

           RP Price    Current Price    Exchange Price

Athena        8-1          10-1              8-1

Broadway      7-2           3-1              3-1

Magic Wand    2-1           4-1              9-2

Answers on a postcard, all will be revealed 5 mins before the off.
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Report domino14 April 16, 2018 2:05 PM BST
Athena is pretty moderate and wants a trip, she's unlikely to be good enough to win, and will be plodding on unless they opt to use her to make the running.

Broadway is a filly the yard like but she had a lot of problems last season and she's not done loads this spring. She may well be good enough to see this through given she is classy but I wouldn't exactly say confidence is high as she needs it.

Magic Wand is fit, she's been leading a lot of the fillies gallops, but she is no better than a 85 horse. If she wins it's on fitness not class, she possibly may have the best chance today given she is fit, but a fully fit Broadway would easily have the beating of her.

I wouldn't say confidence is high in the yard of any of the three winning, but Magic Wand may have a fitness edge having had 10 serious gallops this sprint.

In the 4.00 Gardens Of Babylon works well with Murillo at home, the ground is the only concern but given Murillo is one of nicer 3yo's and is being aimed at the Commonwealth Cup, you would want to see Gardens Of Babylon going very close in this. The other runner in the 4.00, wants a trip and works behind yesterdays well beaten Cork runner so very little is expected.

Had the ground been decent today I would have had a bet on Gardens Of Babylon, and I still may, but it will only be small as ground is a worry.

I'm waiting for one on Thursday at Tipperary who looks Royal Ascot material on what he shows at home. That will be my only decent APOB bet this week.
Report pa lapsy April 16, 2018 3:38 PM BST
I'm no advocate of these races, ie heavy ground,1st time out for the season, etc,i think your post was quite accurate Domino, the man in the street hasn't an earthly with this kind of race.
Jaega looked a nice horse and did it very well,maybe she didn't beat a lot but couldn't have done it easier.
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 3:43 PM BST
It looked to me that Jaega was plotted up, well backed throughout the morning and won well. She has group entries so was probably showing something at home.
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 3:46 PM BST
Thanks Pa Lapsy.

It helps seeing the videos of the gallops and that, you get an understanding of the ones who are fit and so on.

Broadway is a nice filly. I'm far from convinced 10f will end up being her trip. She is probably more of a 7-8f filly and she has only had 2 serious gallops. APOB is keen to get a lot more handicapped this season rather than just win a maiden, then have to step up in class and there are some very valuable handicaps later in the season, Including a £200,000 added 8f Fillies 3yo handicap on Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket this season. Trainers like Stoute, Gosden, O'Brien and so on will definitely aim at these races so if they have a listed filly like Broadway it makes sense to run her unfit over inadequate trips to get a mark say mid 80s where you can win one or two and get in those races off a winnable mark. In years gone by you can get ready, win your maiden, run 5th or 6th in listed company and end up with a mark in the high 90s or low 100s and this would make it hard to win a hcp with them.

Athena will be okay but she is very much a staying filly. She was not knocked about and I feel possibly had her rider wanted to be more forceful, she may have got 3rd. Anyway it's a good education for her and I suspect she will step up in trip.

With a filly like Magic Wand, she's fit but she isn't very good in the context of the race and is an 5 horse at best, and has prob run to about 80 today. With her she'll just be campaigned to win her maiden before going to stud. It's one of those that with a filly like Broadway you can sacrifice maiden's as you know she is much better than that, but with something like Magic Wand you can't afford to do anything but your best, as they are limited in ability.

Athena on this running could find herself getting a provisional mark higher than ideal as she was held together and not toughed around, but was only plodding on. I suspect they will go straight for a 12f maiden next time, possibly a fillies one, but at one of the lesser tracks, so if she wins she can be fairly assessed.
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 3:47 PM BST
@Andrew In Sweden

Was a good race for them to find with the winner, taking on 3 well bred APOB fillies who weren't actually fancied but made sure you would get a decent price.
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 3:49 PM BST
Yes agreed Domino, hence my use of the word 'plotted'.
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 3:58 PM BST
I gathered, but I'm not sure plotted is the right word. Aidan had 8 horses entered in this, including Together Forever who will leave two mediocre runs well behind her when she runs this season, as she looks one of the better 3yo fillies in the yard this season and could be pretty darn good. He also had Most Gifted, Darkness Falls and Curly who are very smart entered, so at the 5 day stage, this by no means looked a race a plotted up horse would run in. However at the decs stage, I'm sure Weld's would have been pleased to see a staying bred filly on her 3rd run in the race, and a well beat 7th on debut having her second start. That said I'm sure Broadway would have concerned them on paper. From the family of Venice Beach and Danedream, she was 4th to a group placed horse on debut and a listed winner came from behind her in the race. I'm sure Weld's would have known they would have to be smart to beat her. However I'm sure they will have got wind, she wasn't fit and the others aren't much and therefore it became a good scenario to bet her. I doubt there would have been the same support against one of the four other mentioned fillies above, as they would all be Group 3 minimum horses.
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 4:09 PM BST
OK dominic, i hadn't seen the 5 day declarations, but noticed there was a bit of money for the winner this morning (drifted a bit come race time) and reading form of the AOB runners thought the race was winable on debut (well entered up).

Gardens of Babylon was beat quite early, I guess it was the ground as you pointed out.
Report pa lapsy April 16, 2018 4:10 PM BST
Disappointing from G O B(strong enough), never going well and never shifted a gear,maybe ground or maybe breathing(tongue tied) but personnally i'd be tending to avoid it in future.
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 4:14 PM BST
Gardens of Babylon, was never going, looked to be hating ground and was on his wrong lead throughout. Wouldn't look too much into it. All his work has been on all weather and like said would have been a bet if better ground but not on soft. On faster ground will see a different horse.
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 4:15 PM BST
Aidan likes tongues on keen horses, as he feels it keeps their heads down. Wouldn't look into his wearing tongue ties too much, in regards to breathing. He's been using tongue ties rather than cross nosebands for a while now.
Report pa lapsy April 16, 2018 4:23 PM BST
He was fairly keen but got the lead off stablemate going down(winner keen also going down), wasn't surprised to see SH rein him in behind early, anyway no doubt down the line(better ground etc) all will be revealed.
Just in general DK Weld starting well as he has the past few seasons before a lull and a typical A O' B early start.
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 4:24 PM BST
Heavy going at all tracks today, makes a mockery of the formbook sometimes. I wouldn't want to be on the short priced Mobsta at Windsor, having to give weight away, even though he has a touch of class.
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 4:26 PM BST

Why, when Mobsta is a heavy ground specialist ?
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 4:35 PM BST
I wouldn't exactly call her a heavy ground specialist (beaten on it LTO) although she likes the soft, but her last win was almost 2 years ago. Granted it wasn't a strong field, but there were a couple of younger types open to improvement. It was struggling and looked beat, although rallied well to win a neck. I wouldn't have backed her at the price.
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 4:39 PM BST
I was happy with the neck Wink

16:20:23    16:20 Windsor
Win by 1.5 lengths or more - How Far Mobsta
Betfair Bet ID 1:122509666058 | Matched: 16-Apr-18 16:20:37    Lay    3.75    22.00    60.50
Report domino14 April 16, 2018 4:40 PM BST

If you watched it's last run on heavy you will have noticed it should have won half the track.
Report Andrew in Sweden April 16, 2018 5:03 PM BST
Sure i know, and he probably would have won at Doncaster if he hadn't stumbled, but he's not consistant (15 races and 2 years without win) different track, and you often get odd results when going is heavy. OK he won today, albeit by a neck, but i didn't make him an even money bet. I laid the distance anyway (+1.5L) @ 3.75 so i had 2 bites at the cherry, and it turned out better than laying him at 2.3 to win.
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