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Pinza
09 Mar 18 11:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 May 01
| Topic/replies: 3,053 | Blogger: Pinza's blog
Covers flat & AW racing from March 2016

Have put previous posts on Some Guesses recently, but seem to have a jinx  on there as had too many close 2nd's
It may be my way of interpretation of the races though?

So moving on with my own post
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Report Mat22 March 25, 2018 5:33 PM BST
Well done with Right Action n Ventura Dragon.
My nap 2nd Sad
Well backed in the end to no Avail.
Report Virgin March 25, 2018 5:36 PM BST
wd Pinza CoolCool
Report Pinza March 25, 2018 7:44 PM BST
Thanks
Wait for my "Special" bets
System shows a very good percentage, win and place.
The only one so far was 3rd at 9/1

They don't come often though.
Report Pinza March 27, 2018 12:35 PM BST
"They don't come often though?"
That's strange because today we have 3 special (e/w) bets today.

Star of Stage 5.30 Southwell
Ghostly Arc 6.40 Newc
Amulitum 7.10 Newc
Report Deltâ March 27, 2018 2:30 PM BST
Pinza - did you notice on Saturday - Yates and his mates forgot to put the draw for the Lincoln in the paper Cry
Report equine flew March 27, 2018 6:38 PM BST
Would you back Ghostly Arc e/w at 5/2 and Amultum e/w at 5/2 Pinza ?
Report equine flew March 27, 2018 6:39 PM BST
Sorry second horse is 5/4 not 5/2, plus only two places?
Report Pinza March 27, 2018 7:56 PM BST
Delta.
No I never noticed it.
I cut n paste the runners from another source

Equine Flew
No. I backed it to winCry

A lousy day.
Report Mat22 March 27, 2018 8:13 PM BST
We All have lousy Day's.
Keep going im Sure the System will bang out some nice winners sooner then later.
Cool
Report Pinza March 28, 2018 2:17 PM BST
Today's "Special Bets" ??

6.45 Newc HARMONICA
8.15 Newc LORD CAPRICO
Report Pinza March 28, 2018 9:18 PM BST
Harmonica beaten at odds 1/4 (not a betting price)

Lord Caprico won at 5/4fv;( 2/1 taken)
Report Mat22 March 29, 2018 9:05 AM BST
Wd with Caprico.
Report deadbrain59 March 29, 2018 11:02 AM BST
brian hughes 122+rated horses +80 for season.
Report Pinza March 29, 2018 1:21 PM BST
Thanks Mat

CULLODEN 5.35 CHELM
Report Pinza March 29, 2018 5:52 PM BST
Culoden Ran a great race but just ran out of gas at finish
Open around 8/1 and 14/1 on offer at start suggested a place bet.
Often the case when a fancied runner drifts near off

Horse Racing / ChelmC 29th Mar : 2 TBP
        15.98
Horse Racing / ChelmC 29th Mar : To Be Placed
        63.21
Horse Racing / ChelmC 29th Mar : Each Way
        3.80
Horse Racing / ChelmC 29th Mar : 5f Hcap
        -12.00
Horse Racing / ChelmC 29th Mar : 3 TBP
        10.31
Report Mat22 March 29, 2018 6:01 PM BST
Nice price Placed.
Keep those Special bets coming Cool
Report Pinza March 30, 2018 12:00 PM BST
Todays Specials

2.00 Linga RED VERDON

4.10 Linga SECOND THOUGHT

4.40 LINGA MASTER OF THE WORLD

4.55 Newc RUDE AWAKENING
Report Mat22 March 30, 2018 8:15 PM BST
2nd itus.
Report deadbrain59 March 31, 2018 7:36 AM BST
page 2 stuffPlain
Report Pinza March 31, 2018 1:24 PM BST
Poor day yesterday. The prices didn't tempt for a place.

Specials: Just one that passes the tester.

2.35 Kemp AUTOCRATIC

Now talking about Kempton,I think this is the meeting that I went through card two or three years ago
on the Guesses Post.

So trying to emulate or at least a few winners in multiples

2.00 Tigre Du Terre
2.35 Autocratic
3.10 Qaysar
3.45 Stanley
4.20 Fire Fighting
4.55 Reflector
5.30 Excellent George
Report Virgin March 31, 2018 1:27 PM BST
2.00 Caspar The Cub gets my vote gl Pinza
Report Pinza March 31, 2018 1:55 PM BST
You could be right Virgin
Very little between them

Tiger has the two top spot
Casper has the two next best

F/C bet?
Report Pinza March 31, 2018 1:57 PM BST
2 - 3 / 3 - 28.2 £2.00  £14.40
Report deadbrain59 March 31, 2018 3:14 PM BST
glad you picked quasar naps tableCool
Report Pinza April 1, 2018 11:48 AM BST
No Specials today

2.05 Poppy May
17 races at track  and only  one 4yo Filly has won from 39 runners and that is Poppy May
who broke her duck here on latest run.

10  4YO filly’s  have come to the track (and same grade & distance ) with a  previous win
And none won.
Prisom 1
Seaview 12
Mimic's Memory 4

have come to the track twice with 1 previous win
and only Mimic made improvement to 2nd place from 3rd on previous run

Currently 2nd fav but too much of a risk at 6.8 for a Lay bet
But wouldn’t consider a win bet
Scotch Myst a course winner could win for in form trainer Richard Fahey
Data over last 2 years.
Report Pinza April 1, 2018 6:48 PM BST
Scotch Myst a course winner could win for in form trainer Richard Fahey


7f, Class 6, £3,105.12
Going: Standard
Winner Scotch Myst
7/2

Winning jockey: Paul Hanagan
Winning trainer: Richard Fahey
5
Report Pinza April 4, 2018 9:09 AM BST
Today's Specials.

2.10 LINGA: MIME DANCE   3/1
2.25 SOUTH:  JACK TAYLOR 5/4
4.25 SOUTH:   GLEAMING SON 7/4
6.45 KEMP: MR MINERALS 3/1
8.15 KEMP: EXCEEDING POWER  7/2
9.15 KEMP: LADY OF YORK  3/1
Report Mat22 April 4, 2018 5:38 PM BST
G.L. at Kemp tonight.
My Nap is Warsaan 6.15 Good draw and first time up on the A/W is the time to get on for this horse of Oasis Dream.
All Aboard!
Report Pinza April 4, 2018 7:28 PM BST
Just logged in after cashing in two e/w multiples.
Started off well with Mime Dance
but the rest have been placed up to now.

3yo hcps are difficult anyway
So is Kempton for me as all other AW tracks are Left Hand.
Report Pinza April 4, 2018 9:30 PM BST
A good day at the office

2.10 LINGA: MIME DANCE   3/1      WON 10/3
2.25 SOUTH:  JACK TAYLOR 5/4      2nd 15/8
4.25 SOUTH:   GLEAMING SON 7/4    2nd 4/6
6.45 KEMP: MR MINERALS 3/1        3rd 2/1
8.15 KEMP: EXCEEDING POWER  7/2   WON 5/2
9.15 KEMP: LADY OF YORK  3/1      WON 7/2
Report Virgin April 4, 2018 9:34 PM BST
WD Pinza
Report Pinza April 5, 2018 9:17 AM BST
Thanks Virgin

Not much doing today, just two Specials  at Chelm.

6.15 The Juggler 

7.45 Blackheath 

the latter is in a small race so not an e/w bet
Report Mat22 April 5, 2018 5:00 PM BST
In the Zone, some nice winners there.
Keep up the good work.

20.45 (City Dreamer) at around 6/4 should go in against this lot.
Report Pinza April 6, 2018 12:56 PM BST
Matt
City Dreamer
The price was going higher near the off
Too high for me so got out
Report Pinza April 6, 2018 1:03 PM BST
Todays Specials
LINGA;
3.55, SUWAAN
5.05; ZAMJAR / EVENING STARLIGHT (Never had two in same race before, fc?)

CHELM 8.45 JACK NEVISON
Report Pinza April 6, 2018 1:14 PM BST
Jack Nevison non runner
Report Mat22 April 6, 2018 4:59 PM BST
Yeah the drift on City D was alarming.
Snap with Zamjar as my Nap, though will put a small saver on your other one.
G.L.
Report Mat22 April 6, 2018 5:31 PM BST
Bingo. SDS done the biz there n more to come from this horse Zamjar.
Report Pinza April 6, 2018 6:55 PM BST
Yes saved the day
Probably best to take the higher weight in the circumstances
Report Mat22 April 7, 2018 10:21 AM BST
2.05 Kemp Momentofmadness Nap : Won this race last year and looks laid out for today again.
3.15 Kemp Smart Call NB : Class dropper n big chance on literal Form draw only slight worry.
Report deadbrain59 April 7, 2018 11:21 AM BST
james doyle likes big pay packets 3.15 k
Report Pinza April 7, 2018 12:45 PM BST
just one special today

SEVEN CLANS 8.15 Wolver.

Your two Matt (both top score),
but not sure about yours Deadbrain.
Lightly raced !
Report Mat22 April 7, 2018 3:27 PM BST
The Nap romped in, Buick bounced it out smartly and never saw another horse.
NB No good, going to have to keep an eye on those French horses, incredible strike rate of late.
Good luck with Seven Clans later.
Report Pinza April 7, 2018 4:18 PM BST
Well done Mat
Report Mat22 April 7, 2018 8:30 PM BST
Tx n likewise with your selection.
Never in doubt with Kirby he he he

a couple of nice winners today: Seven Clan and Momentofmadness.
Keep up the good work.
Report Mat22 April 9, 2018 3:48 PM BST
5.05 Lud Full Trottle Nap:
Should really take care of this sorry lot.
Report Mat22 April 9, 2018 6:54 PM BST
Nap well backed and won very easy in the end, even though it touched 49/1 in running.
Bankroll looking healthier with Aintree approaching. Happy
Report Mat22 April 10, 2018 12:24 PM BST
5.00 Dund Danz Gift Nap: Won with plenty to spare last time and i will be Disappointed If this horse doesn't oblige.
Report Pinza April 10, 2018 3:00 PM BST
Good Luck with your Mat

Tonights Specials.
(Not that keen on them though)

Appenzeller 5.45
Fadhel 6.45
Sky Gypsy 7.45
Report Mat22 April 10, 2018 5:09 PM BST
Tx Bud,
Boom! Third Nap on the trot in. Yeah it was a shorty but i'l take one of those every day of the week.
Another one that left it late. surprise only touch around 6.8 in running.

Out of your 3 picks this evening i like Fadhel
Good Luck
Report Virgin April 10, 2018 5:12 PM BST
Good run Mat Cool wd
Report Mat22 April 10, 2018 7:59 PM BST
Tx Virgin,
pressure on to get 4 in row now Cool

Wd With Sky Gypsy!
Won puling Double!

backed Sky Gypsie and Fadhel so small profit.
Report Virgin April 10, 2018 8:27 PM BST
wd Pinza Cool
Report Pinza April 11, 2018 10:17 AM BST
Thanks Guys
Two 2nds and a Winner
Even though I wasn't keen, the system still roles on.
I was put off by going to deep into the data, and 4yo fill didn't have a good win record so just played the place.

Todays Special
3.15 Linga GARTH ROCKET

possibles (next best) are
4.50 Amourice
8.15 Jacob Cats
Report Pinza April 11, 2018 4:18 PM BST
A let down with Garth Rocket finishing 4th
Backed it at 10/1
and laid it at 4/1 in running
Report Mat22 April 12, 2018 9:02 AM BST
14.50 Aintree Might Bite Nap: Stands out in this field and i cant believe he's close to Even Money in the Market. Personally make it a 1/3 shot in my book.
Huge Value in my opinion and i will be lumping on this shorty.
Report Pinza April 12, 2018 12:01 PM BST
Good Luck with Might Bite Matt

todays Specials
6.15 FIELDSMAN
6.45 COMMANDER HAN  (Sallab next best f/c?)
Report Mat22 April 12, 2018 3:29 PM BST
BOOM!!!!
Lovely jumper he's the real deal Cool
How on God's green earth this gone off at such a huge price is beyond believe.
Thought 1/3 in my book was being generous.
Smashed it at Even's! job done! time for a celebration drink.

Good luck with your Picks tonight Pinza!
Report Virgin April 12, 2018 3:58 PM BST
WD Mat Cool
Report Mat22 April 12, 2018 4:04 PM BST
Tx Virgin, hope i can keep it up after my connect 4 Happy
Report Pinza April 13, 2018 11:12 AM BST
well done MAT
Disappointing day for me
Hoping to get back on track today



KEMPA
5.45; Wynfaul the Wizard
6.45; Dotted Swiss
7.15; Khamry
7.45; Royal Household
Report Mat22 April 13, 2018 1:53 PM BST
TX Bud.
You cant keep a good man down im sure u will bounce back.

15.25 Aintree Min Nap: To get anywhere near Altior is solid form. Plenty to spare v this lot.
Can't be having Balko after very poor un de sceaux in Ryan and Politoloque was given a Tingle Creek.
Report Mat22 April 13, 2018 3:45 PM BST
Min tanked along with the choke out and was only just denied on Heavy going. Plain
Bubble burst on the nap runs. inevitable at some point.
Report Pinza April 13, 2018 7:11 PM BST
Yes it was a close race
I thought you would go for Min.
I had it in my multiple bets (EW)
It's my son in laws knickname.

Be lucky tomorrow
Report Pinza April 14, 2018 2:02 PM BST
Strange or not?
A few days ago the Nottingham card was abandoned
I had previously checked to see which Trainer was top at that meeting on previous years
It was Brian Millman.
He had a couple running at Kempton
Sir Roderick (a better horse running in class 4 race) and Airshow later in Royal Household's race
I decided to back Sir Broderick and luckily put a bet on Airshow.

The trainer seems in good form and maybe to follow in next few weeks.
Need to keep an eye on top trainers at the tracks in next couple of weeks.

Todays Specials
3.05 LINGA; BOYCIE
6.00 WOLVER; BERKSHIRE ROYAL,
9.00 WOLVER; PEA SHOOTER
Report Pinza April 15, 2018 7:41 PM BST
Just 1 winPlain

Should have looked more at Pea Shooter
It's not often that 9yo's have wins on trot
Only 10 in last 3 years (class 5 & 6)
And mostly in top four weights
Report Virgin April 15, 2018 9:21 PM BST
WD Pinza Cool
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 8:59 AM BST
Top trainers at track (Windsor) and month (April) from 2001

P Midgley: 2,20 Orient Princess (20/1)
B Millman: 2.50 Greeley and Greyzee (both FTO 12/1)
R Hannon: 3.50 Fast and Hot (3/1)
B Millman: 4.20 Glory of Paris (5/1)
A Balding: 4.50 Unbridled Spirit (9/2)
B Millman: 5.25 Hawridge Glory (4/1)

A little Heinz bet, or leave out 2.50 for Canadian
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 9:17 AM BST
Windsor C&D winners who act on good to soft or soft to heavy.

3.50 Fast and Hot
4.20 Clear Spring , Major Pusey, Mobsta (the only one for heavy)
5.25 Harlequin Striker
Report Virgin April 16, 2018 10:25 AM BST
4.20 Tawny Port - Arcano - HEAVY 36% Confused
Report Virgin April 16, 2018 10:28 AM BST
Ah sorry missed your cd qualifier Blush
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 11:04 AM BST
Virgin
Thanks for input
I just simply use the Mirror, which tells the horse's best rating on the going.

Todays Specials
FAST and HOT
MOBSTA (Major Pusey next best)
Report deadbrain59 April 16, 2018 11:09 AM BST
2.20 2.50 interestingMischief
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 11:22 AM BST
2.20 race is a first for the grade, at least for last 3 years.
Normally all their 3yo hcps are class 5
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 11:29 AM BST
2.50 race 2Enov race
will produce the first FTO winner for last 3 years
Normally the past races are mainly over 6 & 8 furlongs
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 11:32 AM BST
NON RUNNERS:
2:20 Maygold (1)
4:20 Major Pusey (4)
4:50 Mom Said (4)
5:25 Anif (10)Wicker (5)
Report Mat22 April 16, 2018 4:17 PM BST
5.00 Leop: Brendan Brackan Nap: Trainer in good form and at this level u can set you clock by this horse.
Report Virgin April 16, 2018 4:29 PM BST
wd Cool 4.20 Fcast Pinza if you combined 

Tawny Port 5th Plain
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 4:35 PM BST
Ah!
No Just ew bet on Millmans
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 4:37 PM BST
And a without the fav bet
so ok with that
Report Virgin April 16, 2018 5:01 PM BST
gl MaT
Report Mat22 April 16, 2018 5:08 PM BST
Tx but well beaten in the end by (on the go again). Fitness edge.
Brendan seem to run on again.
Defo think will get the money back with Brackan this season.
Report Pinza April 16, 2018 10:33 PM BST
NMKT
Best 3 trainers (in order) for this meeting, HANNON, HILLS, STOUTE.
Mainly 3yo Winners
Hardly any over 5yo
100+ days since run
Report Pinza April 17, 2018 11:29 AM BST
Todays Specials.
looking at last years meeting the two qualifiers failed to win
So not expecting too much

3.35 PURSER
4.10 FIRE BRIGADE


In the past years I restricted my betting until the Chester May meeting
Very difficult at this time of year.

Tom Dascombe sending his 3yo maidens to Nmkt today. Getting them race fit for Chester one presumes?
Report deadbrain59 April 17, 2018 2:36 PM BST
ive napped the top oneMischief
Report Mat22 April 17, 2018 3:33 PM BST
G.L. Pinza
Think Fire brigade on better Ground should be very competitive, E/W Shout

My Nap is Mildenberger 4.45 Newmarket.
at around 3/1 he looks good value v the O'Brien Fav.
By no means a two horse race with 3y olds at this time of year.
But literal form does look like Mildenberger should go very very close.
Report deadbrain59 April 17, 2018 3:46 PM BST
Cool
Report Pinza April 17, 2018 3:56 PM BST
Good Luck with your bets Mat & Deadbrain.
I looked at the 4.45
Kew Garden 5.5 score, Mildenberger 4.5
But probably doesn@t mean much at this time of year
In the end I went for Stage Magic & Kew Gardens
Report Mat22 April 17, 2018 4:02 PM BST
WD with purser thought Frankie gave it a good ride, still thinks he's one of the best in the biz.
Fire brigade next up G.L. have had a little on it E/W
just hope spencer doesn't leave it to late Happy
Report deadbrain59 April 17, 2018 4:11 PM BST
Appleby and gosden well in profit 90+rated horses gl
Report Mat22 April 17, 2018 5:01 PM BST
Normal service resumes with a winning Nap, good to see Midenberger oblige.
That rising ground helping near the end as thought for a sec the 25/1 rag had got away.

Fire brigade no good but Purser winning so plenty of winners being tipped on this thread.
Report deadbrain59 April 17, 2018 6:15 PM BST
WDWink
Report Mat22 April 18, 2018 11:11 AM BST
3.00 Newmarket Nap Deauville: at around 2/1 Stands out on form and should really put this lot away with the minimum of fuss.
Report Pinza April 18, 2018 1:02 PM BST

0
0
0
5
0
0

Just a reminder that these Nmkt class 2 hcps are difficult in April
The figures are the ratings of the winners since 2016

And the form doesn't show much. Only 1 winner LTO
form
7100x 
0939x 
2631x 
1x20x 
5240x 
066x8 
268x5

 
Report Pinza April 18, 2018 1:43 PM BST
Moving on the 3yo Listed Hcp is normally won by winners in their first 3 runs.
That is going by my vast collection of lists that started in 1982 up to 2009 (27 yrs)
That doesn't help today as they all fit.
In a 10 runner race, draw winners were 1,6,1,
Hannon stable has won 4 in the period, Hills won 2
Both trainers have high number of wins at this meeting and Hills already have one in the bag.

Enough of the ramblings. The Specials today are

2.25 RUFUS KING
3.00 ROBIN OF NAVAN
Report Mat22 April 18, 2018 3:31 PM BST
The Nap beat and wont be in a rush to follow it after he could not take care of this sorry lot.
Had every chance. proabaly end up being a pace maker in the future for the real Group 1 horses for coolmoore.
Report deadbrain59 April 18, 2018 4:47 PM BST
Appleby banged 2 inPlain
Report Pinza April 18, 2018 5:52 PM BST
KEMP Specials
6.45 ILEY BOY
8.45 GAVIAR

Been busy in garden
Report Mat22 April 19, 2018 12:38 PM BST
3.00 Newmarket Nap Brando: Looks a progressive sprinter the older he gets and first time up with perfect conditions is the time to go in.
Not underestimating the french as seen over last few weeks and Le Brivido is a worthy Fav.
Report deadbrain59 April 19, 2018 2:23 PM BST
stable doing well gl
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