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Willie Shafter.
11 Feb 18 16:23
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Date Joined: 15 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 5,980 | Blogger: Willie Shafter.'s blog
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Report chavman February 11, 2018 7:11 PM GMT
yeh lend us your brain Shaft we re building an idiot
Report ProSniper February 11, 2018 7:18 PM GMT
Report MJK February 11, 2018 7:23 PM GMT
Can't understand why people concentrate on the English premier league when betting on football. Most weeks Man City are the only reliable pick, whereas in the other leagues the likes of Juve, Napoli, PSV, Ajax, PSG etc are more or less certs every week. Prices won't be great but it's a tidy profit on an accum.
Report stewarty b February 11, 2018 7:32 PM GMT
never won a PL game at St James' Surprised at that. Thought he might have bagged a win whilst at Chelsea?
Report Rob_The_Bantam February 11, 2018 10:05 PM GMT
WS - quick question.  You say that nobody can make betting on football pay.  So who wins?  For all of these losers, there has to be a winner, doesn't there?
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 10:06 PM GMT
good stuff snipe...1/2 to lay..

lay much?
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 10:07 PM GMT
pre race punters....

lose lose win lose win win lose win lose win win win lose lose lose lose win lose lose..

pi$$ing against the wind long term.
Report Rob_The_Bantam February 11, 2018 10:10 PM GMT
Okay, so they're all just exchanging money between themselves and are all break even in the end?  Seems unlikely. 

As Snipey said, the warning signs for Man United backers were there and have been for some time.  Think lowest they traded at was 1.56 for buttons and they shifted out to about 1.62 SP.
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 10:24 PM GMT
yes..thats what 98% of pre race punters do all there lives.
Report pumphol. February 11, 2018 10:33 PM GMT
WS you seem to think anything you don't play or don't understand  which can  obviously be a variety of markets you just assume  that no-one can win & I mean no-one it seems a  very strange mindset.
Report smirnoff2therescue February 11, 2018 10:35 PM GMT
he is 98% correct tbf LaughLaughLaugh
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 10:52 PM GMT
didnt think there was anything i didnt understand...

and 2/100 isnt ' no-one'

hth.
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
did anyone actually lay the terrible 1.56?
Report Rob_The_Bantam February 11, 2018 10:57 PM GMT
I laid 1.59.
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 10:59 PM GMT
As Snipey said, the warning signs for Man United backers were there and have been for some time.

how have they manage 2nd place in the premiership?
Report Rob_The_Bantam February 11, 2018 11:07 PM GMT
It's a píss poor league at the moment IMO.  Man City aside, of course.  The fact that United are second isn't particularly to their credit; it's more a damning indictment of the standard of football in the country.
Report Willie Shafter. February 11, 2018 11:20 PM GMT
newcastle have been mediocre all season.
Report G Hall February 12, 2018 10:17 AM GMT
Benitez is working miracles they spent more money to get out of the championship than they have to stay in the premier league,that is an incredible stat.
Report madrigal February 12, 2018 10:26 AM GMT
Glad they won for Rafa's sake-brilliant manager but will he be there next season?

He deserves better treatment by top brass imo
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 12, 2018 10:41 AM GMT
Can anybody recall all those threads where Billy Big Balls asks (they're definitely not tips!) whether a 1/8 shot is the biggest certainty of all time, before subsequently losing?
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 11:10 AM GMT
yes..the one where no-one has an opinion until the event is over?  becos most are clueless *****?

i remember it well.
Report G Hall February 12, 2018 11:13 AM GMT
Good morning willies your full of the joys today ☺
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 11:16 AM GMT
as per...hows John these days?
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 12, 2018 11:27 AM GMT
"I remember IT well."

Singular?

Listen Willie, you obviously do very well doing what you do but, judging by those threads, it's a good job you stick to what you're good at.

Like ProSniper, I left the game alone yesterday too. As a fully-fledged ABU, was happy enough just to see them feck up. Only a loon would have backed them at 8/15.

(Btw, I've opposed your 'sure thing' a few times and done ok. You're correct that I didn't offer a pre-event opinion on any of them. At the same time, I didn't appear on any of those threads with an aftertime gloat. Most don't.)
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 11:34 AM GMT
(Btw, I've opposed your 'sure thing' a few times and done ok.

I didn't appear on any of those threads with an aftertime gloat. Most don't.)

LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 12, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
Laugh away. Show me any different. I've not even aftertimed this one although your OP is an aftertime of sorts.

Like I say, stick to what you're good at.

(Yfsdc!)
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 1:57 PM GMT
oh i do..

making people rise like a starving trout..(like yourself).
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 12, 2018 2:25 PM GMT
Ah, I see, this thread was a wind-up?

In that case, well done.

(Are all those sh1t, definitely-not-a-tip threads wind-ups too?)
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 2:27 PM GMT
no wind up..was me highlighting 9again0 there is no form in football..in a form of sarcasm.
Report mouse muldoon February 12, 2018 2:29 PM GMT
semi antics
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 2:33 PM GMT
still flacid at mo Laugh
Report howard February 12, 2018 2:34 PM GMT
I see Rochdale are 25/1 laddies Saturday. Probably a good trade playing on that beach.
Report mouse muldoon February 12, 2018 2:34 PM GMT
Brass monkeys at Catterick then.
Report howard February 12, 2018 2:34 PM GMT
*sunday
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 2:45 PM GMT
aye its nippy outside.
Report ProSniper February 12, 2018 3:35 PM GMT
"good stuff snipe...1/2 to lay..

lay much?" >> Wasn't a particularly difficult game to skip imo(you hear that, Shafty? SKIP! We don't have to "lump on" every bet that opposes something we believe isn't worthy of support)

Even a brain worth £2.50 wouldn't ask such a silly question Laugh
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 3:59 PM GMT
ProSniper    11 Feb 18 18:10 
1) Man Utd currently a meek shadow of their glory day's under Fergie.
2) Newcastle renowned for raising their game in their own backyard against the "top sides"
3) Boring, sad losing, anti-football mug Mourinho never won a PL game at St James' 

got fcuk all to do with 'skipping' ydc...you win by taking advantage of wrong odds...but easy post event isnt it?
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 4:17 PM GMT
sniper..would you take 11/10 in a coin toss?  or skip the situation?
Report ProSniper February 12, 2018 5:43 PM GMT
1) As average as United are, they've still shown superior consistency to Necastle this season. In addition they have a couple of world class players who can alter result, if not overall team performance.
2) Newcastle will most likely raise their game..but am I confident that it will be good enough to get a result? NO.

Conclusion: NO BET.

On any match-up presented to us we can always have a lean. It doesn't mean it's strong enough to be backed.
Asking if I'd take 11/10 on a coin toss is stupid since I know for certain those odds represent value.
Report mouse muldoon February 12, 2018 5:55 PM GMT
The conclusion is nearly always NO BET for me on the football as I simply know I'm a much better judge on the horses.
Report howard February 12, 2018 6:24 PM GMT
It is tricky football. You can have an average side but have a top striker that can change everything. eg. Salah Liverpool Then the ref plays a far bigger part than stewards in racing. Late weakened team selection is maybe the best angle. But bad pitch can be a leveller that's why I mentioned Rochdale.
Report flukes February 12, 2018 6:45 PM GMT
Rochdale are relaying the pitch ahead of Sunday for what its worth
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 12, 2018 7:12 PM GMT
What were the correct prices iyo, Willie?
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 8:31 PM GMT
didnt pay any attention till i knew the score..obvious man u would be odds on but hadnt looked,
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 8:35 PM GMT
ProSniper    12 Feb 18 17:43 
1) As average as United are, they've still shown superior consistency to Necastle this season. In addition they have a couple of world class players who can alter result, if not overall team performance.
2) Newcastle will most likely raise their game..but am I confident that it will be good enough to get a result? NO.

where was that posted?
Report chavman February 12, 2018 8:36 PM GMT
hows andyl gettin on
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
missionary position.
Report chavman February 12, 2018 8:42 PM GMT
does he drive you about as well
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 9:01 PM GMT
no..hes went hermitised.
Report chavman February 12, 2018 9:06 PM GMT
sounds painful,maybe a couple of ibuprofen should manage it
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 9:26 PM GMT
200 better option.
Report chavman February 12, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
most reassuring to know youd advise your mate of 20 years 200mg ibuprofen
Report Willie Shafter. February 12, 2018 9:44 PM GMT
would solve his world of pain.
Report Magic__Daps February 13, 2018 9:43 AM GMT
If everything went to plain old "form" most favs would win in any Sport wouldn't they? Everything comes down to prices (as you have said regarding 11/10 on a coin toss). If Man U were 1/3 you would lay them, if they were evens you would back them regardless of what you think will actually win.
Report Willie Shafter. February 13, 2018 11:29 AM GMT
indeed daps..but the 1/2 was laughed at by many..yet we only have 1 claim of a lay..

as per.
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 13, 2018 12:16 PM GMT
If the outsider of 3 wins a horse race, does it mean racing has 'no form'?
Report Willie Shafter. February 13, 2018 12:21 PM GMT
not if the other 2 fall.
Report ProSniper February 13, 2018 6:35 PM GMT
Shafty, if you're trying to tell us you can't see the difference between 1/3, 1/2, and EVS? just put your rod down ydc Laugh

I believe United opened up 4/9..which eventually drifted to 4/7. With any event mixed with skill&randomness, there's no calculation we can do that can tell us for certain that we're betting into value. Therefore, once we've weighed up the pros and cons in any given event, prices we judge to be in a fairly 'efficient range' are of little interest to us.
Report Willie Shafter. February 13, 2018 9:09 PM GMT
Conclusion: NO BET.

so iyo the odds were correct?
Report ProSniper February 13, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
Since I couldn't judge them to be incorrect, they must have been close enough to the opposite. Would you take EVS on a coin toss? Laugh
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 13, 2018 9:43 PM GMT
Willie wouldn't even take 11/10. He'd wait until he was certain it was going to be tails and hoover up all the 1.01!
Report ProSniper February 13, 2018 9:52 PM GMT
Report mouse muldoon February 13, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
Which is why folks you should cancel all your bets before they go in play.
Report Willie Shafter. February 13, 2018 10:05 PM GMT
punters will not get wealthy without an edge.

thats the best 1.01 u will see.
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 13, 2018 10:16 PM GMT
No argument with that Willie. Btw, bearing in mind your PC woes, what price would you need on the toss of a coin?
Report Rob_The_Bantam February 13, 2018 10:17 PM GMT
I decided that I'd lay Man United at anything below 1.6, so when they came into 1.59 lay I did so.  I'd say that the 1.62 SP was about bang on.  I didn't lay them for much, mind.

Your opinion that people can't make football betting pay is baffling.  I'm not sure if it's arrogance or you're angling for bites, but you're completely wrong.
Report Willie Shafter. February 13, 2018 11:18 PM GMT
you're in a minority then rob..

Mikael D'Haguenet    Joined: 24 Jun 06
Replies: 9017 13 Feb 18 22:16 
No argument with that Willie. Btw, bearing in mind your PC woes, what price would you need on the toss of a coin?

im happy with evens..we were at sedge couple mth ago and i spun a lad in my box for £5,000.
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 13, 2018 11:57 PM GMT
I wasn't trying to be clever or owt Willie. If you were backing on here, what price would you need before you'd back it?

Rob knows he's in the minority btw. Never struck me as a billshutter either.
Report pumphol. February 14, 2018 12:32 AM GMT
Willie Shafter.    13 Feb 18 22:05 
punters will not get wealthy without an edge.

That's 100% correct, yet a year or so back there was a thread about winning  distances on the gee gees  & you said that was a total mug bet, if you go back a few years the spread firms & high street shops were clueless to the fact at certain meetings it usually paid to go under or low winning distances to anyone who is not familiar with spread terms, of course all good things come to an end but there was a  decent run there  for several years, I'm sure there are others out there with an edge on some sport or other & its easy to knock someone when its something you have no knowledge of.
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 12:50 AM GMT
no i believe rob...but i still think football is impossible. and i said im happy with evens in a toss up.

distances is a mug bet its just a guess...if a horse 1L down at the last falls and the distance is a distance how is skill involved?
Report pumphol. February 14, 2018 9:39 AM GMT
Of course when that scenario happens & a horse could win 30 lengths your would do your dough, & that's the mindset the layers had for years hence the line was almost always too high on most meetings, yes you got the odd disaster & meetings on soft ground were often  avoided but I never won what I did just by luck I can assure you.
Report Magic__Daps February 14, 2018 9:56 AM GMT
The P+L over longterm will tell you if any skill is involved and you have been betting at the right prices, not because of a one off faller at the last scuppers the bet.
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 11:49 AM GMT
correct magic..just what my reply was going to be..

so c'mon pump,you gotten wealthy bettng on distances?
Report howard February 14, 2018 12:09 PM GMT
I think you're correct thinking football is harder than racing. If the bookies get the prices wrong it is rarely by very much whereas in racing horses can be too short or long by some way especially IR or photos.
Report sparrow February 14, 2018 12:12 PM GMT
I'd be surprised if any football only punter paid the Premium Charge.
Report chavman February 14, 2018 12:57 PM GMT
did you win or lose the coin toss
Report pumphol. February 14, 2018 1:06 PM GMT
Maybe my head cold has got the better of me but I read that as Magic Dabs was agreeing with me though apologies if I'm wrong.
Report sparrow February 14, 2018 1:09 PM GMT
pumphol.    Joined: 29 Jul 04
Replies: 49307 14 Feb 18 13:06 
Maybe my head cold has got the better of me but I read that as Magic Dabs was agreeing with me though apologies if I'm wrong.





Does that mean you must be right?
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 14, 2018 1:13 PM GMT
It probably means he made/makes money on winning distances.

Does that make him wrong?
Report sparrow February 14, 2018 1:15 PM GMT
You will have to ask him that question.
Report pumphol. February 14, 2018 1:17 PM GMT
Doesn't make me right or wrong I was just responding to Magic's reply

Yes Mikael it is made as I no longer play that market.
Report mouse muldoon February 14, 2018 1:35 PM GMT
chavman
14 Feb 18 12:57

did you win or lose the coin toss

Come on Willie, the suspense is killing us.
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 1:40 PM GMT
i always choose tails never fails...it was tails..

since then he's has requested 3 pretendee tosses..all were heads.
Report mouse muldoon February 14, 2018 1:47 PM GMT
He must have been beating himself up after going for 3 pretendee instead of double or quits.
Report dave1357 February 14, 2018 2:02 PM GMT
re winning distances on flat I can go to a spreadsheet i have based on distance/going/# of runners/race type/fav price and the distances I come up with are either in or very close to the spread.  ie it is easily modeled and there isn't an angle. 

Jumps might be a bit more complex but with a max of 30 lengths per race, I can't see how it can't be similarly modeled.  There are obviously possible angles re changes in conditions but I doubt that the spread books aren't aware of these.
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 2:14 PM GMT
a jockey sometimes could win 20L or 1L

but it isnt guessing?
Report Mikael D'Haguenet February 14, 2018 2:17 PM GMT
Sounds like whatever edge was availiable on those markets has disappeared, Willie.

It's all guessing really, isn't it? Unless you have fast pics of course...
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 2:27 PM GMT
no need to remind me...im aware ive a big edge..

but..i got off my arse 15yr ago and obtained that big edge..

as could anyone.
Report dave1357 February 14, 2018 2:34 PM GMT
WS just because something is high variance doesn't mean it can't be modeled.  I would guess the spread firms just increase their spread towards the high side when their model contains too much uncertainty eg 3 runner novice chases.
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
dave ive been involved with gambling since my grandfather had me picking horses 46yr ago..ive been around gamblers all my adult life and can say hand on heart ive only seen an odd one make money..

an edge is needed to progress.
Report dave1357 February 14, 2018 2:54 PM GMT
Where did I say there was an edge?  Both my posts have stated that the models the spread firms use are probably accurate.

If your point is that punters won't win betting on distances I agree with you, but that's because it doesn't matter if a horse falls or not at the last rather than because of it.
Report Willie Shafter. February 14, 2018 3:13 PM GMT
was no question mark dave..was merely stating..was a rhetorical question..

Wink
Report Zodiac February 15, 2018 12:17 AM GMT
Willie Shafter.    14 Feb 18 14:27 
no need to remind me...im aware ive a big edge..

but..i got off my arse 15yr ago and obtained that big edge..

as could anyone.
__________________________________________________________________________________


BUT WINKLE IS STILL HAVING SUPPOSEDLY £5,000 SPINS OF A COIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thats why the forum are laughing at Dumbo LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Willie Shafter. February 15, 2018 12:22 AM GMT
Zodiac    14 Feb 18 17:11 
EVENING DISCIPLES, THAT'S ME DONE FOR THE DAY LaughLaughLaugh

OFF TO ALEC'S WITH MRS ZODIE FOR A ST VALENTINES MEAL GrinGrinGrin

THIS SHOULD PAY FOR FOR IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good luck to life's losers who will be on the forum all night

WAFDSC Laugh
Report Zodiac February 15, 2018 12:28 AM GMT
THINK IVE TOUCHED A NERVE WITH THE NORTH SHIELDS TOMMY TANKER  LaughLaughLaugh
Report Zodiac February 15, 2018 12:33 AM GMT
MUST GO BEFORE WINKLE GOES IN TO MELTDOWN AGAIN !!!!!!!!!!!

ITS EMBARRASSING BlushBlushBlushBlushBlushBlush

GOODNIGHT  >>> ZODIE LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report mouse muldoon February 15, 2018 12:34 AM GMT
Zodiac    14 Feb 18 17:11
EVENING DISCIPLES, THAT'S ME DONE FOR THE DAY LaughLaughLaugh

OFF TO ALEC'S WITH MRS ZODIE FOR A ST VALENTINES MEAL GrinGrinGrin

THIS SHOULD PAY FOR FOR IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good luck to life's losers who will be on the forum all night

WAFDSC Laugh




I recall an earlier post where he said the losers were his wife's
Report Willie Shafter. February 15, 2018 1:09 AM GMT
picture the scenario...mr and mrs zodie off to alecs for a romantic meal...

banana cocktail followed by braised bananas and banana fritter for desert..

make their way home to do what loved up couples do...

POST ON THE FORUM Laugh

zodie = the forum DC.
Report mouse muldoon February 15, 2018 8:49 AM GMT
She had a headache and went straight up to bed (nap)
Report Willie Shafter. February 15, 2018 10:16 AM GMT
with a banana?
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