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get in there gamsty!
07 Dec 17 14:50
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Date Joined: 23 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 7,422 | Blogger: get in there gamsty!'s blog
What classifications throw up the most "shock results" & which the least?
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Report duncan idaho December 7, 2017 3:24 PM GMT
define shock result and might be able to help
Report get in there gamsty! December 7, 2017 3:34 PM GMT
large priced outsiders. we all know they sometimes win or come close. but was wondering the stats on which races statistically has them more and which less than others.
Report Pinza December 7, 2017 4:12 PM GMT
Just testing

ALASKAN BAY 5.25  (LAY)


Fire Diamond 7.30 (BACK)

   

BORN TO FINISH 6.30 (ew?)
RATING    POS    assist    TAB    form    HORSE and draw    DIFF    AGE    SEX
3    WON    w     6     9x721     Merhoob 3(3)    2-    4     G
        w    11     45381     Jaarih 6    ?    4     G
        w    2     45461     Dynamo Walt 2    13-    5    
        w    6     35551     Rich Again 5    11-    7    
        w    3     90081     Room Key 8    10-    4     G
2        w     12     62921     Burning Thread 7    34-    9     G
1    WON    w    4     75081     Firmdecisions 12    10-    6     G
        w    1     00001     Kalk Bay 10    19-    9     G
    2nd    w    12     23x21     Rockley Point 6    1-    3     G
0    WON    w    2     0x061     Pearl Spectre 2    3+    5     G
4        w    9     64231     Manatee Bay 14    16-    6     G
1    2nd    w    10     08661     Dutch Golden Age9    0    4     G
4    jfav    w     4     x8x71     Alkhor 2    2-    3     G
    3rd    w    4     90x1     Out Of The Ashes 2    0    3     G
        w    1     73201     Foxy Forever 9    7-    7     G
    2nd    w    7     1     Rock Of America 4    2+    3     C
    won    w    8     64431     Saved My Bacon 4    7-    6     M
1    won    w    10     1     Golden Goal 7    2+    3     C
3        w    11     x4941     Rouge Nuage 3    11-    7     G
2        w     6     23431     Gold Hunter 15    12-    7     G
        w    11     63531     Miracle Garden 5    7-    5     G
2    won    w    10     36241     You're Cool 8    13-    5     G
3        w    7     89991     Captain Lars 9    11-    8     G
1        w    8     37321     Born To Finish 5    10-    4     G

A Difficult one but with only one 4yo winner probably best to avoid

POS    assist    TAB    form    HORSE and draw    DIFF    AGE    SEX
    w    1     32x31     Mystical Spirit 2(2)    2+    4     G
WON    w     6     9x721     Merhoob 3(3)    2-    4     G
2ND    w    3     1     Burcan 8(8)    2+    4     G
    w    11     45381     Jaarih 6    ?    4     G
    w    3     90081     Room Key 8    10-    4     G
2nd    w    10     08661     Dutch Golden Age9    0    4     G
    w    5     x7731     House Of Commons 5    1-    4     G
    w    8     37321     Born To Finish 5    10-    4     G

7.00 BOWERMAN (LAY)
Just on 3yo age  no plus winners
form    HORSE and draw    DIFF    AGE    SEX
2x511     Mukalal 2    3+    3     G
x2321     Mutarabby 5    2+    3     C
x5112     Mukalal 8    3+    3     G
511     La Rav 2    3+    3     C
14     Casimiro 6    1+    3     G
30x03     Sibilance 5    2+    3     F
2x1x     Bowerman 2    2+    3     C

33 races all tracks – and just one winner (DAPHNE  4yo Fill)
Report Pinza December 7, 2017 6:19 PM GMT
BOWERMAN update

    2x1x     Predilection 2    2+    3     C 
3rd    x7x1x     Appeared 1(1)    0    4     C 
    2x1x     Doeadeer 4(4)    #    3     F 
    2x1x     Doeadeer 7    2+    3     F 
    x7x1x     Rare Rhythm 17    2+    4     C 
    2x1x     Flight Officer4    2+    5     G 
    2x1x     Dazzling Rose 8    2+    3     Fill 
    70x1x     Turaathy 14    5-    4     F 
    2x1x     Harry Angel 9    2+    3     C 
won    2x1x     Zabeel Prince 6    2+    4     G 
    96x1x     Frank's Legacy2    1-    3     G 
    74x1x     Afjaan 6    4+    5     G 
    2x1x     Bowerman 2    2+    3     C 

        Backed to odds on (bit of a worry for a lay) but the stats that favour a win via career
        form    HORSE and draw    DIFF    AGE    SEX    career?
        2x1x     Predilection 2    2+    3     C     1-1-2 
   2nd  2x1x     Harry Angel 9    2+    3     C     1-1-2 
        2x1x     Bowerman 2    2+    3     C     1-1-2 
Report duncan idaho December 7, 2017 6:30 PM GMT
SP 33/1+ (since 2008..at least 250 quals/runners in race type)


Best (by Win %):-

Handicap Novices Hurdle    2042    33    1.6%
Handicap Chase            5833    93    1.6%   
Handicap Seller Hurdle    383    6    1.6%
Handicap Maiden            276    4    1.5%   
Handicap Nursery    2328    32    1.4%


Worst:-

        Novices Hurdle            19212    86    0.5%   
    Maiden Hurdle            28464    123    0.4%   
    Claimer Hurdle            343    1    0.3%   
    Novices Seller Hurdle    262    0    0%   


[before posting, the above is neat...soz if it is gobbledygook once posted)
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