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18 Mar 17 22:14
Date Joined: 04 Aug 06
| Topic/replies: 21,552 | Blogger: casemoney's blog
7 Years Old ran a stormer in GC  ,why would anyone run the Horse in the Grand National ??

Add he is not the Greatest Jumper ,and Jonjos History with Gold cup horses going to Aintree

Seems Bizzare .
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Pause Switch to Standard View Minella Rocco Grand National ?????
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Report Racingqueen March 18, 2017 9:16 PM GMT
Report Deltâ March 18, 2017 9:18 PM GMT
I thought GN after race

BUT then realised,  jumping was not its forte - especially early on in GC and its only NF's skill that got it so far
Report casemoney March 18, 2017 9:18 PM GMT
Horse looks to have a Decent Future Im sure JP Dosent need to Risk him .
Report casemoney March 18, 2017 9:20 PM GMT
Hes 7 Delta  ,Its Insane looks to have a Great future  ,NationaL course and Distance Leave their Mark on Most horses who Take part ..
Report BigField March 18, 2017 9:23 PM GMT
The grand national has been the plan for this horse for the past year or two
Report BigField March 18, 2017 9:23 PM GMT
not saying it should definitely head there though
Report casemoney March 18, 2017 9:30 PM GMT
Yes that before it has ran A stormer Yesterday ,I would certainly be reconsidering my Options after that Plain

Not a Good Jumper  Screens up 3 races Ago ,I would be walking ,and not in the direction of Liverpool Happy
Report CheltenhamRoar March 18, 2017 9:32 PM GMT
10 years ago you's would have a point re jumping round the national course, the national has now become your run of the mill 4 mile plus chase, the uniqueness has been slowly sucked out of it.
Report casemoney March 18, 2017 9:41 PM GMT
You can say that Chelts But 40 horses at speed is not the best race to be a Dodgy Jumper ,Just think I would target Gold Cup next year and if his Jumping has improved then the GN  ..

JP has other options in the Race ,Rocco on the Back burner For me Happy
Report ladycarla March 18, 2017 9:47 PM GMT
Agree can't remember a 7 year old winning it! Another year experience and then the way it stays could be a double winner of it.
Report Graeme83 March 18, 2017 9:53 PM GMT
I would. He will never have a better mark for it. Handicaper won't fall for it.
Report bigmart March 18, 2017 10:01 PM GMT
welsh national or uttox national or whitebred
Report bigmart March 18, 2017 10:12 PM GMT
ps i backed it ew in gold cup hense stuck it in the profit thread cd not understand why it was 18s and native river was 4s it beat it fair and square , still a young horse not over raced deffo got a big race in him if you watch the reply he was around 10 th place jumping the last has that rare quality
a blend off class and un reserved stamina in abundance like righthand man , etc
Report CheltenhamRoar March 18, 2017 10:16 PM GMT
Mart the reason it was 18s and native river 4s is pretty simple, one jumps for fun the other jumps like a crab

Agreed re keeping him away from national by the way, too young, plenty more days for him.
Report wondersobright March 18, 2017 10:18 PM GMT
native river was in the heat of the battle the whole race, minella rocco was kept out of it and picked up some tired horses late on imo
agree doesn't jump well enough either, I couldn't have him on my mind for a national or any grade 1 any time soon
Report penzance March 18, 2017 10:18 PM GMT
don't know the stats but 9 chase runs,
bit inexperienced for this?
Report mokegibboni March 18, 2017 10:21 PM GMT
Rocco was 33/1 for the GN yesterday morning. After it's race yesterday, it dropped to 10/1 which muggins here took!

After these comments I'm beginning to regret that now! Oh well, it was only a tenner to win. C'est La Vie!
Report BigField March 18, 2017 10:22 PM GMT
To be fair case I do agree, if he was mine, regardless of prior thought, I'd target him for next years Gold Cup too, could see him winning in the style of Synchronised if only AP was still around.
Report Facts March 19, 2017 9:35 AM GMT

CheltenhamRoar    18 Mar 17 21:32 
10 years ago you's would have a point re jumping round the national course, the national has now become your run of the mill 4 mile plus chase, the uniqueness has been slowly sucked out of it.

Absolutely spot on.
But can't have Minella Rocco.
Report 1st time poster March 19, 2017 9:57 AM GMT
WTF only feihly kept it up never read so much shoite in my life ,i backed the horse and other thgan one tiny peck on landing jumped like a dream all the way round,unlike dak,cue card,native river etc,only the winner matched him for jumping
Report Dr Crippen March 19, 2017 10:54 AM GMT
I would think that Minella Rocco is sure to run in the GN at some point given his record.
Report ladycarla March 19, 2017 11:17 AM GMT
Agreed with 1st time poster, only horse I watched all race, took a chance backing it but 22/1 great value as beat native river last year and was closing on many clouds when fell. Only concern was his jumping as fell few times but jumped well, kept saying to myself if you're still standing 3 out will have a great chance out staying them up the hill. If gold cup was 3m 5f would of pissed it.
Report dunlaying March 19, 2017 11:28 AM GMT
I expect he will run as he stays and is in fine fettle. My worry is that he might lack the agility , both mental and physical , for the race.
Report Dr Crippen March 19, 2017 12:36 PM GMT
Or enough pace at the end of it.
Report 1st time poster March 19, 2017 12:39 PM GMT
4 miler gets within 2 lengths of a horse who,s ran douvan close over 2 miles,and your worried about him been outpaced by handicappers over 4 miles,if theres logic in racing wheres the logic behind that
Report Dr Crippen March 19, 2017 12:50 PM GMT
You surprise me coming out with that 1tp.
Report koikeeper March 19, 2017 12:53 PM GMT
Report Dr Crippen March 19, 2017 12:56 PM GMT
You mean you need it explaining as well koikeeper?
Report koikeeper March 19, 2017 12:59 PM GMT
No, I mean I'm not surprised he came out with that.
Report Dr Crippen March 19, 2017 1:00 PM GMT
Sorry koikeeper, I misunderstood.
Report 1st time poster March 19, 2017 1:04 PM GMT
come on then the 2 forum guru,s explain to us lesser mortals based on the gold cup ,why is rocco going to have a lack of pace at the end of 4 miles,against the likes of the 2nd fav who,s plodded around haddock on heavy ground
Report kevo March 19, 2017 1:19 PM GMT
The only negative for me is his age, as one stat says only 6 out of 40 horses under the age of 8 managed to complete the course since 1992.

The positives is that apart from his gold cup 2nd on Friday he won the 20 runner 4m chase at chelt last year and also finished 3rd in the 17 runner betvictor grade 3 chase carrying 11.9 (staying on) last November. It proves that he can handle large fields.

If he does turn up I would like to see if he jumps the first couple of fences ok and then back him in running.

As already posted on here it is no longer the severe test of jumping that it once was.
Report ged March 19, 2017 2:38 PM GMT
kevo - don't know where you're getting your stats from, but 7 7yos have completed the course since 2009  - from 16 such runners. (43% in that period)

The completion rate for horses older than 7 in the same period is 113 out of 262 (also 43%).

Going back to 1993, younger horses fared worse, but that's largely due to a proliferation of MC Pipe horses between '97 and '06. He supplied 16 aged 6 or 7, and only 2 got round.

Jonjo has run 3 7yos, and they've all failed to get round, but they went off at 33, 100, and 100.
Report dan hardcore March 19, 2017 2:50 PM GMT
Agree with 1st time poster. If he's got enough speed to be 2nd in the gold cup he's got enough speed for a 4m3f hcp off 156 surely! His jumping would be the only thing that stops him hosing up for me. Can see him being a short priced fav.
Report penzance March 19, 2017 2:53 PM GMT
very much doubt he won't have the pace,
won 2 21f Hdle races and placed @23f Chse.
Report bigblobby March 19, 2017 2:54 PM GMT
Report kevo March 19, 2017 3:02 PM GMT

I can't remember the site where I found the stats but your post does put a different light on it.

I would still have reservations about backing a 7y old in this race, but that apart I think that MR has outstanding claims.
Report 1st time poster March 19, 2017 3:19 PM GMT
everyone can think of reasons not to get involved hard race thurs,luck in running,jumping etc but been short of pace wouldnt be one of them imo
Report 1st time poster March 19, 2017 3:21 PM GMT
whats the price with 3 squid 65 think i heard their bloke saying there now nrnb
Report casemoney March 19, 2017 3:44 PM GMT
Say you were Lucky Enough to own him  ,you  have  other options in the race, Rocco has time on his Hands ,Would you Run him ??

Being I thought he was Dead 3 runs back Sad I think hes done enough for the season

No way I would run him .
Report Dr Crippen March 19, 2017 7:51 PM GMT
I'd certainly run him.
He's only had four runs this term and one of those he went out at the fifth.

If he's mature enough to run in the GC he's mature enough for the GN.
Report the bloob March 19, 2017 8:08 PM GMT
the stat against 7 year olds is very strong, and there have been a few fancied ones running over the years. I don't think it would be a good idea running it this year
Report the bloob March 19, 2017 8:10 PM GMT
just checked and the last time a 7 year old won it was 1940!
Report ladycarla March 19, 2017 8:31 PM GMT
One due then Laugh
Report layingisthewayforward March 19, 2017 9:28 PM GMT
Looked like a pretty decent GN trial run to me. I'd run it in the national if it were mine.
Report 1st time poster March 20, 2017 10:26 AM GMT
you wernt the one banging on about the french bred stat a few years back were you, Wink
off course 99% of the 7 year old stat like all the stats are based on the national as it was ,not as it is now
Report lewisham ranger March 20, 2017 11:38 AM GMT
horse won't fail because it's 7. most 7 year olds fail because their stamina isn't well developed enough at that age or they don't have enough experience of jumping fences. this horse has already jumped around twice at the cheltenham festival and won a four miler.

if he gets beat won't be because of his age.
Report ged March 20, 2017 1:30 PM GMT
A few post-war near misses for 7yos...

1953. 7yo Mont Tremblant carried 12-5 into 2nd place, having finished 4th in the Gold Cup earlier in the month. (He'd won the Gold Cup as a 6yo).

1957. 7yo Wyndburgh finished 2nd. He also went on to finish 2nd as a 9yo, and as a 12yo.

1963. 7yo Carrickbeg was caught close home and beaten 3/4 length under amateur John Lawrence, later known also as Lord Oaksey.

1971. 7yo Black Secret was beaten a neck. 7yo mare Sandy Sprite wasn't beaten far in 5th, having broken down when clear on the run to 2 out, and having not been passed until half way up the run-in.

Young Hustler is the only 7yo in the last 25 years to be placed in the Gold Cup and to then run in the following Grand National. He was prominent when brought down by a loose horse at the 11th. He ran at both Cheltenham and Aintree in 5 successive years - 3 times trying the Gold Cup and National. His best National effort was a 5th as a 9yo, the only time he completed in the race.
Report 1st time poster March 20, 2017 1:35 PM GMT
its just a numbers game aint it how many 7 yr olds run as against i dont no 30 8,9,10,11 yr olds on the day
Report ged March 20, 2017 1:40 PM GMT
16 have run in last 7 years. Shortest price 14/1. Best placing is Vieux Lion Rouge's 7th place last year.
Report 1st time poster March 20, 2017 1:46 PM GMT
so 16 7yr olds have run against about 250 other aged horses in a short weight range handicap,not really a stat is it
Report ZenMaster March 20, 2017 4:09 PM GMT
He is a certainty if he takes to the fences and he has as good a chance of taking to the fences as any other horse that has never jumped these unique fences.

How far would he have won the Gold Cup if it was over 4.5 miles?

Mortgage job (for the brave)Wink
Report 1st time poster March 20, 2017 5:52 PM GMT
had some free bets from chelt put them on rocco at 10,s nrnb just in case he goes
Report Nogoody March 20, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
That's all very well but can he give 8 lbs. to Cause of Causes who , as Gordon says " always seems to run well on the big days ".
Report jasey March 20, 2017 8:17 PM GMT
Il say the same as I said about Onenightinvienna last year.
Why risk the horses life.
The way he races negates him being well handicapped
Report ZenMaster March 20, 2017 8:46 PM GMT
Why risk a horse of Gold Cup class?

Are you sure Jasey?
Report Rydal March 21, 2017 7:38 AM GMT
According to my tally, since Black Secret finished second in 1971, 57 7 year-olds have run in the race without finishing in the first 4. There have been a few 6 year-olds as well, also unplaced.

These statistics don't rule out the possibility of a different outcome this year - the race has changed and, after all, Vic's Canvas defied similar stats last year. However, I wouldn't run a classy 7 year-old in the race when the Irish GN is a week later. Mind you, I wouldn't have run Synchronised either.
Report TheAnorak March 21, 2017 8:52 AM GMT
Phil Smith has probably just made the decision a lot easier. Minella Rocco put up 10lbs to 166 for his Gold Cup run.
Report Rydal March 21, 2017 9:02 AM GMT
Am I wrong in thinking that he wouldn't get a penalty for Fairyhouse, either?
Report TheAnorak March 21, 2017 10:59 AM GMT
Jonjo has just posted on Twitter that he won't run in the National and has been taken at todays declaration stage. Won't run again this season.
Report ZenMaster March 21, 2017 11:20 AM GMT
Ok, so he is saving him for when he is 10lb higher next season. Makes senseCrazy
Report ReaseHeath March 21, 2017 11:24 AM GMT
only just occurred to me, but they are probably mindful about what happened to Synchronised.

Minella Rocco jumped all the way around Leopardstown after falling too.

I know it wasa freak accident but could be on their minds.
Report BlazingWalker March 21, 2017 11:52 AM GMT
Poor old Synchronised should never have been in that national hopefully they have learnt not to be to greedy.
Report Rydal March 21, 2017 11:55 AM GMT
A sensible decision imo.
Report casemoney March 21, 2017 6:50 PM GMT
Was never going to Run after GC run imo.
Report 1st time poster March 21, 2017 6:55 PM GMT
ffs it takes oneil al season to get them fit and right to do themselves justice then there put away again,by next season oneil means next march
Report wondersobright March 21, 2017 7:29 PM GMT
gold cup aside, not much to write home about for the yard at the fez
Report Dr Crippen March 21, 2017 9:11 PM GMT
O'Neil knows better than anyone on here what's best for the horse.
He must think he'll be better put away until next year or he'd run him.
Or that 10lbs has made up his mind for him.

They'll live to regret that run in the Gold Cup.
Report Ramruma March 22, 2017 4:13 AM GMT
Or that 10lbs has made up his mind for him.

The National weights are fixed so Minella Rocco would not carry the extra weight in this year's Grand National, he'd just be (officially) ten pounds well in, so this is not why he won't run.
Report Facts March 22, 2017 8:10 AM GMT
Exactly, more of a reason for the horse to run in the race, than not.!
Report lewisham ranger March 22, 2017 8:47 AM GMT
to be fair the horse finished second in a gold cup so it's not like they're limited to thinking about the grand national only
Report Dr Crippen March 22, 2017 9:54 AM GMT
The National weights are fixed

Yes I thought that might be the case but someone else's comments put me off.
Thanks for pointing it out.
Report Dr Crippen March 22, 2017 10:15 AM GMT
He's not my idea of a Gold Cup horse.

Outpaced three out, and not for the first if you care to read through his form.
The horse is a stayer, he lacks a turn of foot at this level.
He did very well in this years GC to run on through beaten horses to snatch second prize by a short head from Native River, whom he beat one and a quarter lengths last time they met by the way.
His stamina will always make him a good bet for the place money, but these types invariably find one or two at the end of a big race that can stay and find a bit of pace as well.
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