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RyanWe
11 Feb 16 23:12
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Date Joined: 13 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 32,152 | Blogger: RyanWe's blog
Friday

Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair

Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.

Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.

Saturday

Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair

He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.

Where do I start with Modus?

2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.

Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.

JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.

The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.

He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.

I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.

I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.
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Report PHS June 17, 2018 12:16 PM BST
Vis A Vis a French import, unfortunately not on my list (UK & Ire only), won at 20/1 yesterday.
Report PHS June 17, 2018 4:44 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Hillgrove Angel    16:45    Ayr    Smith, R Michael    Jardine, I
Report PHS June 19, 2018 4:38 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Flaming Spear     17:00    Ascot    Ivory, D K    Ryan, K A
Walk In The Sun     17:35    Ascot    Meade, M    Noseda, J
Wedding Breakfast     16:35    Hamilton    Barclay, Stella    Ford, R
Life Knowledge     17:45    Hamilton    Mullaney, L A    Holmes, P F
Musico     18:50    Ripon    Mullaney, L A    Holmes, P F
Mushahadaat     20:20    Ripon    Easterby, T D    Meehan, B J

Cenotaph     20:40    Chelmsford City    Noseda, J    OBrien, A P

Marthas Benefit     14:20    Uttoxeter    Walford, Mark    Nicholls, Andrew
Insufficient Funds     14:55    Uttoxeter    Oliver, Henry    Lalor, Miss E
Aines Choice     14:55    Uttoxeter    Ford, Richenda    Doyle, Miss Elizabeth
Old Salt     15:30    Uttoxeter    Flint, J L    Williams, Evan
Free Range     16:05    Uttoxeter    Barclay, Stella    Hammond, Micky
Report PHS June 20, 2018 8:15 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Lethal Steps    17:00    Ascot    Balding, A M    Lyons, G M
Field Exhibition     18:10    Ffos Las    Williams, Christian    Casey, Liam
Lotus Pond     18:40    Ffos Las    Bowen, P    Bryan, W
Kelsey     18:40    Ffos Las    Bowen, P    Bowen, Mickey
Distracted     18:40    Ffos Las    Stephens, Robert    Roberts, Alan
Deadly Move     19:15    Ffos Las    Bowen, P    Bowen, Mickey
Montanna    19:45    Ffos Las    Bowen, P    OKeeffe, Jedd
Dollnamix     19:45    Ffos Las    Lavelle, Miss E C    Fry, Harry
Tropical Bachelor     16:35    Ripon    Ellam, Clare    Carr, Mrs R A
               
Star of Rory     15:30    Chelmsford City    Groucott, J B    Dascombe, Tom
Lost At Sea    15:30    Chelmsford City    Farrelly, Johnny    Burke, K R
Report Cork Langer June 21, 2018 12:51 AM BST
Going with a couple of plays in the Britannia, Landshark 40/1 (6 places 1/5th Hill/Coral) and James Cook 33/1 (6 places 1/5th Hill)

The logic for going with Landshark is JH felt convinced the horse was Group class and threw it in at the deep end in the Irish 2000 where the horse never showed but was not beaten far in finishing 9th of the 11 runners, the winner and all of the O'Brien runners ran with credit behind Without Parole n the St James Palace and hopefully Landshark should improve for having had that run, drawn in 18 COD should have no problem picking where he wants to go as the horse will I presume be dropped in behind and hopefully come with a late run.

Harder to make a case for James Cook as he has been disappointing in both his runs this season, over a mile and a quarter in the Epsom Derby Trial he failed to act on the course and was only seen when it was too late, in his next race at York in the Dante he sweated badly, was always behind but finished closer than it had looked likely throughout the race, AOB presumably believes the drop to a mile will suit and would not surprise me if he races a lot handier, if he doesn't boil over of course.
Report PHS June 21, 2018 10:44 AM BST
JC is PricewiseWink. Don't know if that's a compliment or a curse these days.
Report PHS June 21, 2018 5:14 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Eynhallow    17:35    Ascot    Appleby, Charlie    Charlton, R
Carbon Dating     17:35    Ascot    Osborne, R J    Shanahan, John Patrick
Rebel Cause     19:40    Ayr    Holt, J R    Spencer, Richard
Atkinson Grimshaw     19:40    Ayr    Jardine, I    Balding, A M
Surfa Rosa    19:30    Newmarket     Vaughan, E F    Hannon , Richard
Ninepin Bowler    18:45    Wetherby    Duffield, Mrs A    Dods, M
Pearls Calling     20:25    Wetherby    Barr, R E    Barron, T D
               
               
Ventura Magic    13:40    Market Rasen    King, N B    Hannon , Richard
Strongarm Chaser     13:40    Market Rasen    McCain Jnr, D    Hannon , Richard
Adams Park    13:40    Market Rasen    Newland, Dr R D P    Varian, Roger
Viognier    14:10    Market Rasen    Whittington, H    Corbett, Mrs Susan
Miss Benefitz     14:10    Market Rasen    Morgan, Miss Laura    Skelton, Daniel

Gelded in bold
Report PHS June 22, 2018 4:46 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Pearl Dragon     17:35    Ascot    Recke, C Von Der    Elliott, Gordon
Lattesa     17:35    Ascot    Gillard, Mark    Nolan, Shane
First Flight     15:30    Ayr    Ellison, B    Main, Mrs H S
Justice Lady     18:45    Haydock    Cowell, R M H    Elsworth, D R C
Green Fortune    16:40    Newmarket     Cowell, R M H    Haggas, W J
Leodis     14:40    Redcar    Barr, R E    Tate, T P
Ginger Jack    15:15    Redcar    Tinkler, N    Hughes, Jo
Off The Scale     16:35    Redcar    Spencer, Seb    Robinson, Miss Sarah

More Bucks     15:45    Perth    Bowen, P    Nicholls, P F
Report PHS June 22, 2018 4:47 PM BST
^Green Fortune gelded
Report PHS June 23, 2018 3:36 PM BST
Switcher First Flight wins at 24 BFSP
Report RozelKid June 23, 2018 4:05 PM BST
8.00 Lingfield: ISLE OF WOLVES 25/1 EW

Why am i backing this Nathaniel debutant ew ? Because i've been told to by someone who pays the bills.
Report RozelKid June 23, 2018 4:08 PM BST
Then again, connections are not always the best judges - im dipping my toe with caution.
Report PHS June 23, 2018 5:17 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Monsieur Jimmy    17:00    Pontefract    Ellison, B    Carroll, D

Scripturient     14:50    Hexham    Hodge, John Mc C    Cromwell, Gavin Patrick
Al Co     15:20    Hexham    Bowen, P    Bowen, Mickey
Saint Contest     15:50    Hexham    Dalgleish, Keith    King, A
Brandy And Red     14:10    Worcester    Plessis, Miss J Du    Rogers, P D
Gday Aussie    16:10    Worcester    Roberts, David    Ellison, B
Calling Des Blins     17:10    Worcester    Davis, Miss L V    Skelton, Daniel

Ellison bought the first 3 of 4 runners from the Claimer First Flight won. Mons Jimmy was 2nd and runs off his much lower turf mark tomorrow.
Report RozelKid June 23, 2018 5:29 PM BST
Interesting PHS, 16/1
Report PHS June 23, 2018 5:46 PM BST

Jun 23, 2018 -- 5:29PM, RozelKid wrote:


Interesting PHS, 16/1


Wide draw might be a problem.

Report PHS June 23, 2018 7:03 PM BST
My Amigo 20:15 Hayd 7/1 - switched to Marj Fife and had Wind Surgery. Just touched off in a couple of races since, she usually gets them to win eventually. Just needs to keep away from Lamloom tonight.
Report PHS June 23, 2018 8:23 PM BST

Jun 23, 2018 -- 7:03PM, PHS wrote:


My Amigo 20:15 Hayd 7/1 - switched to Marj Fife and had Wind Surgery. Just touched off in a couple of races since, she usually gets them to win eventually. Just needs to keep away from Lamloom tonight.


Kept on well without ever looking a threat to the leaders. Up in trip or back to sprinting !?!

Report RozelKid June 23, 2018 11:09 PM BST
Mons Jimmy been backed PHS
Report RozelKid June 23, 2018 11:18 PM BST

Jun 23, 2018 -- 4:05PM, RozelKid wrote:


8.00 Lingfield: ISLE OF WOLVES 25/1 EWWhy am i backing this Nathaniel debutant ew ? Because i've been told to by someone who pays the bills.


ran sooooo green and was all over the place , stumbled badly halfway through the race too.....but did well to stay on into a place.

Report RozelKid June 23, 2018 11:27 PM BST
back on Monday - potentially going balls deep on one at Southwell WinkWink
Report PHS June 24, 2018 7:22 AM BST
Nice placer RK. At least the info was right.
Report PHS June 24, 2018 11:04 AM BST

Jun 23, 2018 -- 11:09PM, RozelKid wrote:


Mons Jimmy been backed PHS


Big drifter this morning, which probably tells us it's an unlikely winner.

Report PHS June 24, 2018 4:40 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Masons Belle    14:30    Chepstow    Mason, Christopher    Harris, R A
Oliveraie    16:00    Chepstow    Salaman, M    Marnane, David
Our Power     16:30    Chepstow    King, A    Williams, Christian

Barnaby Brook     17:50    Wolverhampton    McCain Jnr, D    Dascombe, Tom
Global Wonder     19:50    Wolverhampton    Kelleway, Miss Gay    Dunlop, E A L
Harry George     20:20    Wolverhampton    Guest, R C    Ellison, B

Third Of The Third    14:15    Southwell    Hanmer, G D    Whitehead, Miss S
Inch Rise     14:45    Southwell    Skelton, Daniel    Burke, W J
Changeofluck     14:45    Southwell    Hill,Mrs Lawney     Hill, Alan
Mountain Chimes    15:45    Southwell    Oliver, Henry    Williams, Evan
Freedom Chimes    15:45    Southwell    Gasson, Mrs Rosemary    Mullins, Ms Margaret
Strike Fear     17:45    Southwell    Harris, S A    Menzies, Rebecca

Gelded in bold
Report RozelKid June 25, 2018 3:03 PM BST
5.15 Southwell: MISTER KALANISI 22/1 EW BOG

Yard only had 3 winners over the past 5 years , but im willing to speculate with this ex Dan Skelton lightly raced hurdler now its being stepped up back in trip.


4.00 Chepstow: AQUADABRA 16/1 EW BOG

Trainer Mason had a ton of success around here when being an owner with the late Bryn Palling RIP. Think this Aqua could potentially be well in here based on a couple of runs last year - hopefully he has been targeting a race here at his fav track
Report RozelKid June 25, 2018 5:27 PM BST
gutted
Report PHS June 25, 2018 5:42 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Lord Cooper    14:30    Beverley    Fife, Mrs Marjorie    Santos, Jose
Seaforth     14:15    Brighton    Loughnane, Daniel Mark    Flynn, Paul W
Tuff Rock     19:40    Newbury    Simcock, D M    Walker, Ed

Mirs Choice     18:30    Newton Abbot    Carroll, A W    Bowen, Mrs S
Changing The Guard    20:00    Newton Abbot    Chapman, Ryan    Brennan, F J
Night Generation     20:35    Newton Abbot    Plessis, Miss J Du    Gordon, C

Gelded in bold
Report PHS June 25, 2018 5:43 PM BST
Grin sorry, there aren't any gelded.
Report PHS June 25, 2018 5:44 PM BST
Mullaney has won FTO with 3 horses taken from Holmes. Auxiliary runs 2TO Bev 15:30, but this is much tougher.
Report PHS June 25, 2018 7:59 PM BST

Jun 25, 2018 -- 5:44PM, PHS wrote:


Mullaney has won FTO with 3 horses taken from Holmes. Auxiliary runs 2TO Bev 15:30, but this is much tougher.


Didn't realise Auxiliary is only 1lb higher for winning an egg and spoon race. Oddschecker have selected it. Actually seems quite short in the betting imo.

He's taken 10 horses from Holmes (maybe a job lot) and 3 won FTO. 1 winner didn't win NTO (York), the other two haven't run yet. Framley Garth won 2TO.

Report PHS June 25, 2018 8:00 PM BST
Nice placer RK Cool
Report RozelKid June 26, 2018 5:37 AM BST
so gutted with Kalanisi - 33/1 the night before with BF- trainer has one at Cartmel on the 29th - very well hcapped horse called GREY MONK.
Report panglima June 26, 2018 10:04 AM BST
Unlucky Roz

Selection from Pumphol

Trendsetter
- 7.50 Ballinrobe 14/1

Three of his four wins have been around today's distance, last run over shorter when 5th of 13 & beaten a little over 5 lengths, that was a better race with eight horses rated over 70, this is weaker & Trendsetter with the apprentice claiming the full 7lb runs off 63, last three wins all off marks of 80+ & recent signs of returning to form & looks to have ew chances in this lower grade
Report PHS June 26, 2018 7:55 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Imperial Act    17:10    Salisbury    Chamings, P R    Simcock, D M
Fading Icon    17:10    Salisbury    West, Miss Sheena    Channon, M R
               
Star Gypsy     20:10    Kempton    Dunlop, H J L    Cumani, L M
Dawn Choir    20:10    Kempton    Charlton, R    Holden, Miss Ellmarie
               
Alys Rock     14:20    Worcester    Morgan, Miss Laura    Appleby, M
Winner Massagot     14:50    Worcester    Skelton, Daniel    King, A
One More Bid     14:50    Worcester    Hughes, Jo    Wall, M J
Copper Prince     15:50    Worcester    Morgan, Miss Laura    Appleby, M
Equus Pandora     16:50    Worcester    Bowen, P    Bowen, Mickey
Perfect Legend    17:20    Worcester    Gundry, Miss Polly    Balding, A M
January Don    17:20    Worcester    Williams, Evan    Moore, G L
An Scairp     17:20    Worcester    Mason, Jennifer    Brotherton, R
Report PHS June 27, 2018 8:20 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Mount Hellvelyn    19:00    Hamilton    Weymes, J R    Midgley, P T
Taoiseach    15:50    Newmarket     Candy, H    Palmer, Hugo
On The Warpath    16:25    Newmarket     Appleby, Charlie    Prescott, Sir Mark
Ghost Serge     17:00    Newmarket     Leech, Mrs S    Watson, Archie
Pondering    17:45    Nottingham    Murphy, Olly    Houghton, Eve Johnson

Warfare    13:30    Newcastle    Spencer, Seb    Fitzgerald, T J
Global Wonder     14:00    Newcastle    Kelleway, Miss Gay    Dunlop, E A L
Dream Mount     17:20    Newcastle    Camacho, Miss J A    Botti, M
Report PHS June 28, 2018 3:20 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Your Just Desserts     17:00    Doncaster    Whitaker, R M    Hammond, Micky

Kavora    20:40    Newcastle    Hammond, Micky    Baker, George

Rubenesque     14:20    Cartmel    Davidson, Tristan    Anderson, Miss G E J
Mahler Bay     14:20    Cartmel    Menzies, Rebecca    Johnson, Kenny
Rose Tree     14:50    Cartmel    Mullins, J W    Corbett, Mrs Susan
Justatenner    14:50    Cartmel    Davidson, Tristan    Murtagh, Barry
Apachee Prince     14:50    Cartmel    Murphy, Olly    Whillans, A C
Damiens Dilemma     16:20    Cartmel    Coltherd, W S    Coltherd, Mrs L A
Walk Waterford    16:50    Cartmel    Murphy, Olly    ONeill, Jonjo
Report PHS June 29, 2018 4:52 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Socru     15:40    Chester    Easterby, M W    Osborne, J A
Shelford     17:25    Chester    Frost, Kevin    Skelton, Daniel
Giseles Angel    19:00    Doncaster    Noseda, J    Guest, R C
The Big Short    19:45    Lingfield    Bradley, J M    Hills, Charles
Three Gracez    20:45    Lingfield    Murphy, Amy    Scott, George
First Dance     14:10    York    Tate, T P    Tate, James

Glen Moss     12:20    Newcastle    Fell, Roger    Dods, M
Financial Conduct     13:30    Newcastle    Simcock, D M    Oliver, Andrew
Lopes Dancer     14:40    Newcastle    Bethell, Harriet    Haynes, Sally
Report PHS June 30, 2018 5:39 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Trust Thomas    15:55    Cartmel    Kirby, P A    Hamilton, Mrs A
Bambi Du Noyer     15:55    Cartmel    Hodge, John Mc C    Conway, Sean
Wood Emery     17:05    Cartmel    Hogarth, H P    Fleming, A
East Wing     17:05    Cartmel    Sowersby, M E    Honeyball, A J
Samtu     17:40    Cartmel    Murtagh, Barry    Fife, Mrs Marjorie
Georgian Bay     14:20    Curragh    McGuinness, Adrian    Burke, K R
Pension Madness     13:30    Uttoxeter    Shears, M B    Farrelly, Johnny
Candy Burg     15:10    Uttoxeter    Murphy, Olly    Williams, Miss Venetia
Report RozelKid July 1, 2018 1:28 AM BST

May 30, 2018 -- 1:16AM, RozelKid wrote:


3.10 Cartmel: CLONDAW BANKER 28/1 EW BOGNot going crazy with this one - small interest.Hasnt won since 2015 when off a mark of 120 for Henderson.  Been coming down in the hcap since joining the Barry Murtagh yard. At this time last year Clondaw was running of a mark of 115 in novice chases for Henderson and Murtagh has managed to get it down to a mark of 90 after five chases and two hurdle startsLooking at my calendar history , This yard, and connections with Murtagh and other yards,  have landed a few touches at several of these three Cartmel meetings at the end of May with horses with the same type of profile. Clondaw has no weight here with Lorcan Murtagh taking off another 5lb and Im just taking the view that it shouldn't really be shock if the horse got in the money now coming back to fences of this mark. 4.40 Cartmel: LOLANI 14/1 EW BOGEx Willie Mullins gelding that was sold to Diane Sayer in November last year by very successful connections in Ireland - Its the first time Sayer has run Lolani over 2 miles since he joined the yard....and based on his overall profile the 2miles always looks to have been the trip that was  going to suit best Think i will know my fate early on if they dont have him handy and near the  pace - its a big advantage over the minimum trip around Cartmel to get the lead or sit very close to it if on a speed horseLolani's profile shows he has speed in his armory which makes me believe the track will suit him around these tight bends -  if Sean Quinlan gives him an aggressive ride i can see him being hard to catch.


Barry Murtagh at Cartmel

Murtagh switched one of his horses recently that ive put up on here this year , JUSTATENNER . It went to the Tristan Davidson yard  ....and he went in first time for that yard at 40/1 at Cartmel a couple of days ago (got backed into 16s) it was just so well handicapped - Davidson yard actually had a 560/1 double.

If you look above in PHS's post you will see both of those winners for the Davidson yard , JUSTATENNER & RUBENSQUE , were both switchers. I think its possibly an underestimated tool when looking at first time starts for new yards at these summer jump meetings - I wonder what a statistical study over a period of years would result...... in the May/June/July meetings over the jumps.

Barry Murtagh had both of these horses entered tomorrow at that Cartmel meeting on the 29th June ....but pulled them out at the 24hr stage - both owned by a MR ANTHONY WHITE ( who also has 2 horses running in the first race tomorrow trained by Diane Sayer

Im backing both of these Murtagh tomorrow in singles and doubles based on my own speculations with the yard ....and also the owner's interests on the card.

Have to say that SAMTU does interest me more out of the two , but if im taking a view on the yard & connections then i back them all in combos


3.55 Cartmel: CLONDAW BANKER 20/1 EW BOG

Ran at Cartmel on the 30th May , opened up at 28/1 the night before and was backed into at low as 8/1 throughout that day ....before driting to 12/1 just before the race. Wasnt even at the races

It was his first run over fences for quite some time and was coming back from a 5 month break , however since joining the Murtagh yard from Nicky Henderson in June last year he has never even looked like winning over fences ....so i could be completely barking up the wrong tree here and could be a lost cause - but has Murtagh been lining up a hcap plot?

He has been dropped a further 5lb from his run at Cartmel run on 30th May.



5.40 Cartmel: SAMTU 10/1 EW BOG

This is a switcher first time out for the yard - has won a few races on the aw at Southwell for Fife , the most recent one being in January this year over 1m6f

Samtu has actually won over hurdles twice and coming 2nd once .... but it was a long time ago for Dan Skelton in 2015 at Uttoxeter and Bangor in 2016 ,  those wins win put him on a hurdles mark between 118-124 - When Skelton realised that was his limit he moved the horse on to Fife.... who only ever game him one run over hurdles being his recent penultimate start (AYR 21.04.18 2m4f class 3 official mark of 118 ) out of his 19 starts for Fife since August 2016.

Handicapper has dropped him 5 lb from that Ayr run and now sits off 113 -  Jockey Robert Hogg takes off another 7 lb tomorrow - I see this as a massive plus with that 7 lb claim as he knows the course well and has had winners for the owner here at Cartmel last year.

Robert Hogg's record at Cartmel - 12 runs, 4 wins, 1x3rd , 1x4th - 33% strike rate - although 3 of those wins were actually on the same horse BEENO which runs in the 2.45 race

Slightly annoying that 2 runners have been pulled out on Saturday dropping the field to just 7 runners at this moment in time , i actually think there could be another NR tomorrow being Golden Town - GT  attempts to double up from his win here a couple of days ago for Jimmy Moffat.

Definitely one to keep an eye on is this Samtu imo -  between now and the end of August at Uttoxeter or Cartmel

Report PHS July 1, 2018 8:31 AM BST
Horses that ran FTO in a NH hcp for Barry Murtagh having run in a Hcp LTO for previous trainer = 0-24.

All NH Hcp FTO switchers May to July - 11.55% strike rate (which is quite high) suggests you're correct in general. Since 2012, 18.5% ROI to BFSP. Chases much the best, with with 32% ROI to BFSP and even 6% ROI to ISP.
Report PHS July 1, 2018 8:42 AM BST
Somewhat surprisingly, it doesn't work 2nd time out, and the best race type for it switches over to Hurdles, with a 7.4% ROI since 2012 (big losses at ISP for both).

With FTO, I suspect there are a select band of trainers that simply go for it FTO, whilst most don't, and the former skew the data.
Report RozelKid July 1, 2018 2:56 PM BST
interesting PHS

Do you get those stats from the Racing Post?
Report RozelKid July 1, 2018 2:58 PM BST
i.e for all fto switchers between the summer months ( over jumps only)
Report RozelKid July 1, 2018 4:08 PM BST
another switcher , Bambi De Noyer- opened up at 33/1 with BF last night
Report PHS July 1, 2018 4:38 PM BST
No, not from RP RK. Don't think they have switcher stats.
Report PHS July 1, 2018 4:38 PM BST

Jul 1, 2018 -- 4:08PM, RozelKid wrote:


another switcher , Bambi De Noyer- opened up at 33/1 with BF last night


and a Chase as well!

Report PHS July 1, 2018 4:39 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Khazix     20:30    Windsor    Davis, D J S Ffrench    Osborne, J A

Flowers On Venus     14:15    Wolverhampton    Butler, P    Dascombe, Tom
Magic Ship     17:15    Wolverhampton    Norton, J R    Pears, Ollie
Digi     17:15    Wolverhampton    Ford, Mrs P    Evans, P D
Stringybark Creek    17:45    Wolverhampton    Loughnane, David    Farrelly, Johnny

Gelded in bold
Report PHS July 2, 2018 3:02 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Valentine Mist     14:30    Brighton    Grassick, James    Mullins, J W
Sweep Of Diamonds    15:00    Brighton    McJannet, Luke    Quinn, Denis P
Vanderbilt     15:30    Brighton    Gillard, Mark    Murphy, P J F
Lady Natasha     15:30    Brighton    Grassick, James    Burke, K R
Cry Wolf    21:15    Chepstow    Dunn, Mrs Alex    Evans, H J
Cascella     15:15    Hamilton    OMeara, D    Condon, K J

Billy Two Tongues    20:00    Stratford    Farrelly, Johnny    Scott, J
Forever My Friend     20:30    Stratford    Bowen, P    Bowen, Mickey
Musical Stardust    21:00    Stratford    Hales, A M    Thomas, Sam

Gelded in bold
Report PHS July 2, 2018 3:03 PM BST
^Sweep Of Diamonds gelded
Report PHS July 3, 2018 3:44 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Street Art     20:10    Bath    Barfoot-Saunt, Mrs Tracey    Murphy, Mike
Lustrous Light     19:20    Kempton    Durack, S    Beckett, R M
Apex King     20:20    Kempton    Hughes, Richard    Dunlop, E A L
Lagenda    15:30    Musselburgh    Mullaney, L A    Stubbs, Kristin

Golden Hoof     14:40    Worcester    Barber, Jack    Barber, Ms J
Franz Klammer    16:40    Worcester    Pritchard, P A    Longsdon, C E
Little Jimmy Brown     17:40    Worcester    Bishop, K    Burke, W J

Gelded in bold
Report PHS July 4, 2018 5:55 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Robin Weathers     16:00    Haydock    Feilden, Miss J    Haggas, W J
Paco Escostar    16:30    Haydock    Camacho, Miss J A    Midgley, P T
Shyjack    16:20    Yarmouth    Dunnett, Mrs C A    Margarson, G G
               
My Brother     14:10    Perth    Mulholland, N P    Smyth, Lee
Report PHS July 5, 2018 4:05 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Bondi Beach Boy    20:50    Beverley    Griffiths, D C    Brittain, Antony

La Figlia     20:05    Chelmsford City    Chapple-Hyam, P W    Noseda, J

Secret Palace    13:40    Newton Abbot    Haywood, Miss G G    Guest, Rae
Hidden Charmer     14:50    Newton Abbot    Williams, Christian    Doyle, P M J
Auldthunder     15:20    Newton Abbot    Chapman, Ryan    Reed, W T
Strumble Head     16:30    Newton Abbot    Bowen, P    Bowen, Mickey
Mon Parrain     16:30    Newton Abbot    Smyly, G R I    Smyly, Mrs K
Avonmore    17:05    Newton Abbot    Brennan, F J    Henderson, N J
Report RozelKid July 5, 2018 6:31 PM BST
Its a Dunnett day Grin
Report PHS July 5, 2018 9:24 PM BST
33/1 into 12/1 Shocked
Report RozelKid July 5, 2018 9:55 PM BST

Jul 5, 2018 -- 9:24PM, PHS wrote:


33/1 into 12/1


400/1 FC

Report PHS July 6, 2018 7:21 AM BST

Jul 5, 2018 -- 9:55PM, RozelKid wrote:


Jul  5, 2018 --  9:24PM, PHS wrote:33/1 into 12/1400/1 FC


Did you?

Report RozelKid July 6, 2018 10:59 AM BST
Got in at 5.30 am Crazy- been a good night

I just played every kind of bet you can think of across the card involving her horses- i just thought well if im gonna punt her im going to do it at these prices

I kept the faith with her - she is the queen of Yarmouth and always will be Love.

If you look at her history she had had plenty forecasts go in - my young nephew had a £5 RFC and was screaming so loud he has lost his voice lol - i got more of a buzz out of him winning than myself.
Report PHS July 6, 2018 11:11 AM BST
WDCool
Report PHS July 6, 2018 4:59 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Terrier Spirit     17:20    Beverley    Fahey, R A    Furtado, Ivan
Knockabout Queen    14:25    Leicester    Dore, C R    Channon, M R
Timpani     15:00    Leicester    Beckett, R M    Gosden, J H M
Voice of A Leader     17:40    Nottingham    Butler, John    Brown, Andi
Molten Lava     17:40    Nottingham    Gollings, S    Kirby, P A
No More Regrets     18:10    Nottingham    Hannon , Richard    Palussiere, Matthieu
Tiger Lyon     18:40    Nottingham    Butler, John    Pears, Ollie
Haroon     19:10    Nottingham    Appleby, M    Brooke, Julia
               
Nakakande     14:05    Chelmsford City    Osborne, J A    Moore, J S
Big Time Maybe     14:40    Chelmsford City    Attwater, M J    Dascombe, Tom
Tarte Tropezienne     15:15    Chelmsford City    Williams, Ian    Haggas, W J
Rainbow Jazz     16:55    Chelmsford City    West, Adam    Usher, M D I

Gelded in bold
Report PHS July 7, 2018 5:17 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Indie Groove     13:30    Ayr    Perratt, Miss L A    Lyons, G M
Island Song     14:30    Ayr    Davidson, Tristan    Anderson, Miss G E J
Palavicini Run     17:10    Ayr    Perratt, Miss L A    Levins, J F

Mille Nautique     14:15    Market Rasen    OBrien, Fergal    King, A
Angel of Harlem    14:15    Market Rasen    Murphy, Olly    Bradstock, M
Exclusive Rights    15:20    Market Rasen    Phillips, R T    Hardwick, Mrs C
Citadel     15:20    Market Rasen    Morgan, Miss Laura    Skelton, Daniel
Moores Road     15:50    Market Rasen    Spencer, Richard    Hourigan, Michael
Dr Moloney     15:50    Market Rasen    Murphy, Olly    Crawford, S R B
Desertmore View     15:50    Market Rasen    Bishop, K    Harris, R A
Sedgemoor Express     16:20    Market Rasen    Hill,Mrs Lawney     Hill, Alan
Go West Young Man     17:25    Market Rasen    Morgan, Miss Laura    Daly, H D
Report PHS July 8, 2018 4:47 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Palavicini Run     15:05    Ayr    Perratt, Miss L A    Levins, J F
Ti Amo     17:10    Ayr    Davidson, Tristan    Murphy, John Joseph
Bay Watch     17:10    Ayr    Reed, W T    Balding, A M
Palace Ball    17:45    Ayr    Coltherd, W S    Easterby, M W
Dominannie     19:00    Ripon    Barr, R E    Haynes, Sally
Ayton     21:00    Ripon    Easterby, T D    Pears, Ollie
The Lords Walk    19:40    Windsor    Gillard, Mark    Fahey, Jarlath P

Lope De Loop     14:40    Wolverhampton    Sadik, A    Evans, P D
Compton Abbey    14:40    Wolverhampton    Dunn, Mrs Alex    Johnson, B R
Favorite Story    15:15    Wolverhampton    Ivory, D K    Wallis, Charlie
Fenner Hill Neasa     15:45    Wolverhampton    McCann, Anthony    Phelan, P M
Don Keyhoe Tay     17:20    Wolverhampton    Rowland, Miss M E    Fahey, R A

Master Sunrise     13:50    Worcester    Ralph, Alastair    Ralph, Mrs D J
Avarchie     14:50    Worcester    Butler, John    Wigham, M
Rockinrolldixie     15:25    Worcester    Ralph, Alastair    OSullivan, Eugene M
Out Of Style     15:55    Worcester    Ralph, Alastair    OBrien, Fergal
Report PHS July 8, 2018 8:54 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Island Song     14:30    Ayr    Davidson, Tristan    Anderson, Miss G E J

Won 12/1 - FTO 2018 Flat Season Surprised
Report GoldCupWinner July 8, 2018 9:07 PM BST
Do you back all these horses and do you make a profit?
Report PHS July 9, 2018 9:13 AM BST

Jul 8, 2018 -- 9:07PM, GoldCupWinner wrote:


Do you back all these horses and do you make a profit?


Ooh no GCW! I back hardly any of them. Just that I was asked for them on here years ago. I checked do people still want me to post them a while back, someone said yes, so I've continued even though Ryan (the OP) has moved on.

Report PHS July 9, 2018 3:26 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Cantstoptherock     17:40    Brighton    Murphy, Olly    OCallaghan, M D

Mabaady    14:45    Wolverhampton    Rowland, Miss M E    Prendergast, Kevin
Artscape    14:45    Wolverhampton    Loughnane, Daniel Mark    Ivory, D K

Pension Madness     18:00    Uttoxeter    Shears, M B    Farrelly, Johnny
Newt    18:00    Uttoxeter    Ralph, Alastair    Wall, C F
Premier King     19:00    Uttoxeter    Skelton, Daniel    Barry, D J
Flamingo Lane     19:00    Uttoxeter    McCain Jnr, D    Bolger, E
Super Moon    20:00    Uttoxeter    OBrien, Fergal    Phillips, R T
Motueka     20:00    Uttoxeter    Murphy, Olly    Hobbs, P J
Desert Retreat     20:00    Uttoxeter    Hill,Mrs Lawney     Hobbs, P J
An Scairp     20:00    Uttoxeter    Mason, Jennifer    Brotherton, R
Chato     21:00    Uttoxeter    Pipe, D E    King, A
Report GoldCupWinner July 9, 2018 7:11 PM BST
Ive missed a lot of the thread but spent some time looking over old posts yesterday and from what I can gather you are posting  horses who have switched yards and are first time out?
Report PHS July 9, 2018 9:16 PM BST
That's correct GCW
Report Cork Langer July 9, 2018 11:24 PM BST
Having a play at Pontefract in the 3.30pm on Huntsmans Close 22/1, horse has fallen a ton in the weights admittedly on the back of some extremely poor runs, but is having only his third outing for DG tomorrow, a decent trainer when he has the right ammunition. His last run when 9th of 11 wouldn't suggest getting involved but I thought he ran a lot better than his placing implies after a tardy start, OM taking the ride a positive and the 2 draw shouldn't have any negative impact as he likes to run on from behind, with the two topweights both being front runners, there should be plenty of pace on, only downside with 8 runners odds are 1 will be pulled out...!
Report PHS July 10, 2018 3:31 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Frangarry     18:40    Bath    Newcombe, A G    Bailey, A
Hell Of A Lady    19:40    Bath    Farrelly, Johnny    Attwater, M J
Nordenfelt     20:40    Bath    Gardner, Mrs S    Lloyd-Beavis, Miss N
Mulsanne Chase    20:40    Bath    Dore, C R    Barr, Brian
The Fluter     14:10    Catterick    Berry, A    Moore, J S
Buthelezi     15:30    Lingfield    Moore, G L    Ellison, B

Not had any gelded horses for several days now, so I'll stop looking for those.
Report Cork Langer July 10, 2018 10:19 PM BST
And low and behold it was my pick that was pulled out...!
Report GoldCupWinner July 11, 2018 1:19 PM BST
So have any patterns been found with trainers who do particularly well with first time switchers?
Report PHS July 11, 2018 4:56 PM BST
GCW,
I've not followed them that closely. If I named any, it would probably be the usual suspects, Mick Appleby, Furtado, Skelton.
Report PHS July 11, 2018 4:59 PM BST
Switchers 12/07/18

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Rotherhithe    17:00    Carlisle    Fahey, R A    Brisland, Robyn
Royal Household    18:35    Epsom    King, A    Hannon , Richard
Another Go     20:45    Epsom    Smith, R J    Haynes, Sally
Report PHS July 11, 2018 5:06 PM BST

Jul 10, 2018 -- 10:19PM, Cork Langer wrote:


And low and behold it was my pick that was pulled out...!


Yeah, I noticed that! It was not long after you posted.

Report REDROB July 11, 2018 5:38 PM BST
I see RK's favourite yarmouth trainer's popped one in again.
Report PHS July 11, 2018 6:33 PM BST

Jul 11, 2018 -- 5:38PM, REDROB wrote:


I see RK's favourite yarmouth trainer's popped one in again.


That's one terrible ExactaShocked

Report PHS July 11, 2018 6:34 PM BST

Jul 11, 2018 -- 5:38PM, REDROB wrote:


I see RK's favourite yarmouth trainer's popped one in again.


6lb out of the handicapShocked

Report GoldCupWinner July 11, 2018 11:20 PM BST
I have found it a fascinating thread to read. Seems very difficult to second guess when the handbrake may be off as horse ran a few times at Yarmouth before hand. Although it has finished in front of the second before here not long ago yet was triple the price.
Report RozelKid July 12, 2018 5:36 PM BST

Jul 11, 2018 -- 11:20PM, GoldCupWinner wrote:


I have found it a fascinating thread to read. Seems very difficult to second guess when the handbrake may be off as horse ran a few times at Yarmouth before hand. Although it has finished in front of the second before here not long ago yet was triple the price.


Thanks when mathematics and implied odds come into it

Report PHS July 12, 2018 9:52 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Sary Arqa    17:35    Chepstow    Watson, Archie    Varian, Roger
Dazacam    21:00    Chester    Barclay, Stella    Herrington,M
Swiss Storm    17:20    Newmarket     Bell, M L W    Elsworth, D R C
Staycation     16:25    York    Fell, Roger    OBrien, Joseph Patrick

Trafalgar Rock    18:00    Ffos Las    Bowen, P    Dunn, Mrs Alex
Go On Mayson    19:05    Ffos Las    Thomas, Sam    Williams, Christian
Take The High Road    19:35    Ffos Las    Pipe, D E    Dalgleish, Keith
Ring The Moon    20:40    Ffos Las    Williams, Evan    Collins, Matthew P
Report PHS July 12, 2018 9:53 PM BST

Jul 12, 2018 -- 5:36PM, RozelKid wrote:


Jul 11, 2018 -- 11:20PM, GoldCupWinner wrote:I have found it a fascinating thread to read. Seems very difficult to second guess when the handbrake may be off as horse ran a few times at Yarmouth before hand. Although it has finished in front of the second before here not long ago yet was triple the price.Thanks when mathematics and implied odds come into it


Did you mean "Thats when ...."?

Report GoldCupWinner July 12, 2018 10:26 PM BST
If you dont mind, will you run through your mindset when using maths and implied odds on a race?
Report RozelKid July 13, 2018 12:28 AM BST

Jul 12, 2018 -- 10:26PM, GoldCupWinner wrote:


If you dont mind, will you run through your mindset when using maths and implied odds on a race?


In my opinion , its all about patience and being prepared for the inevitable.

So whats inevitable ? Something you know, on the balance of probabilities ,  will happen again ......and then narrowing that down that inevitability to some narrow point in space and time when the price is right.

Bit like England fcuking up last night and it pissing me off for the following 7 days - a fcuking inevitability ! Cry

Report GoldCupWinner July 13, 2018 1:23 PM BST
Haha thanks very much! So just as an example you know dunnet will have a big price winner at Yarmouth again at some point so if you backing it at 16/1+ you can afford to be wrong 15 times. Obviously you still need other filters sure as if the horse has shown any previous form to suggest he could win the race. Obviously it's a big price this doesn't mean recent form.
Report PHS July 13, 2018 4:38 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Life Knowledge     20:00    Hamilton    Mullaney, L A    Holmes, P F

Ange Des Malberaux     16:35    Newton Abbot    Skelton, Daniel    Ewart, J P L
Top Chief    17:05    Newton Abbot    Tizzard, C L    Honeyball, A J
Kings Reste     17:05    Newton Abbot    Skelton, Daniel    Murphy, Amy
Report PHS July 14, 2018 6:37 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Sulamani The Late     14:30    Perth    Menzies, Rebecca    Skelton, Daniel
Old Salt     15:35    Perth    Keniry, Stef    Flint, J L
Summoned     14:20    Southwell    Grant, C    Grant, Mrs S E
Midnight Queen    14:20    Southwell    Vaughan, Tim    Flint, J L
Mister Fizz    16:30    Southwell    Hales, A M    Pickard, Miss I H
Go Now Go Now     14:10    Stratford    Candlish, Jennie    Johnston, M
Personal Coach     15:15    Stratford    Dennis, David    Stephens, Robert
Drumhart     15:45    Stratford    Ralph, Alastair    Ralph, Mrs D J
Royal Irish Hussar     16:20    Stratford    Hill,Mrs Lawney     Henderson, N J
The Kvilleken    16:50    Stratford    James, Miss Hannah    Keighley, M
Omega Springs     17:25    Stratford    Williams, D L    Casey, Liam
Report PHS July 15, 2018 10:02 PM BST
test
Report PHS July 15, 2018 10:03 PM BST
Had problems posting earlier

Switchers 16/07/18

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Duggary    17:40    Wolverhampton    Wallis, Charlie    Frost, Kevin
Sebastiano Ricci     20:10    Wolverhampton    Loughnane, Daniel Mark    OBrien, Joseph Patrick
Report PHS July 16, 2018 3:35 PM BST
Switchers - Tues

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Mossys Lodge    18:40    Thirsk    Menzies, Rebecca    Carson, Anthony

Cape Icon    16:50    Chelmsford City    Murphy, Olly    Cox, C G
Normandy Blue    17:20    Chelmsford City    Allan, Miss Louise    Fahey, R A
Clon Rocket     17:20    Chelmsford City    Hollinshead, Steph    Holt, J R

Ennistown    18:50    Worcester    Honeyball, A J    Pipe, D E
Vif Argent     20:50    Worcester    Roberts, David    Reid, Andrew
Report PHS July 17, 2018 2:59 PM BST
Switchers - Wed

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Kyroc     14:00    Catterick    Corbett, Mrs Susan    Midgley, P T
Stepney    15:00    Catterick    Brisland, Robyn    Bromhead, Henry De
Buyer Beware     17:00    Catterick    Mullaney, L A    Holmes, P F

Lopes Dancer     20:35    Wolverhampton    Bethell, Harriet    Haynes, Sally

Rays The Money     15:20    Uttoxeter    Murphy, Amy    Mann, C J
Report RozelKid July 17, 2018 10:46 PM BST
keep em coming PHS - appreciate what you are doing.Wink
Report RozelKid July 17, 2018 11:08 PM BST
having a pop on 2 horses at Uttoxeter tomorrow , with my preference for the former.

1.50 Uttoxeter: DOLLAR AND A DREAM 20/1 EW BOG

I always take an interest of Michael Mullineaux's horses here at Uttoxeter , so will playing his two entries as he has CAPTAIN REVELATION

2.50 Uttoxeter: FREE RETURN 80/1 EW BOG
Report RozelKid July 17, 2018 11:09 PM BST
FFS- it posted before i did my write up
Report RozelKid July 17, 2018 11:29 PM BST
having a pop on 2 horses at Uttoxeter tomorrow , with my preference for the former.

1.50 Uttoxeter: DOLLAR AND A DREAM 20/1 EW BOG

I always take an interest of Michael Mullineaux's horses here at Uttoxeter , so will playing his two entries as he has CAPTAIN REVELATION running in the 3.20 at 40/1 .

DAAD has been gradually slipping down in the weights since joining the yard from Tony Martin in Ireland in July last year - its well hcapped so - i pays my money takes my chances.


2.50 Uttoxeter: FREE RETURN 80/1 EW BOG

I'm only backing this one based on some snippets of data - its a massive price and deserves to be so based on all known form..... and it will most probably drift- smallest stakes only for me just as an interest - may even be bale to get 50/1 to place by morning. Trainer will no doubt find an easier race in the coming months

FREE RETURN is by the old Mr Combustible - i can still see him going flat out from the front in the 2001 Derby....but being eventually reeled in by the might Galileo - still a really nice horse was Mr Combustible ...so genuine.
Report panglima July 18, 2018 9:28 AM BST
Good luck Roz

Ken's Sam's - 6.45 Fairy 33/1

Been following it this turf season but been waiting for six furlongs on decent ground which it does now get,  sole turf win was 15 months back off a mark of 69 & looking back its the first time it’s had decent ground since on the turf over six,  runs here off 45 & a positive jockey booking, Foley has ridden the horse once & that was a win at Dundalk, feeling bullish but there are always a couple of possible negs, the ground is actually firm in places which is not always a positive even  for top of the ground horses but I doubt many if any would appreciate it, draw could have been kinder but neither of those are enough to put me off.
Report RozelKid July 18, 2018 4:40 PM BST
not at the races today - two more meetimgs at Uttoxeter this month so my eyes will be peeled.
Report RozelKid July 18, 2018 4:43 PM BST
GL Pangima - On at the right price i see - backed into 14s now
Report pumphol. July 18, 2018 4:48 PM BST
Cheers Roz, its Pumps other account I posted the selection on btw.
Report PHS July 18, 2018 6:53 PM BST
Switchers - Thu

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
The Groove    14:10    Chepstow    Evans, P D    OBrien, Fergal
Sheilas Treat     20:35    Doncaster    Furtado, Ivan    Coakley, D J
Souls In The Wind     15:00    Hamilton    Osborne, R J    Shanahan, John Patrick
Clary     17:05    Hamilton    Whillans, A C    Unett, J W
Report PHS July 19, 2018 3:53 PM BST
Switchers - Fri

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Souls In The Wind     17:45    Hamilton    Osborne, R J    Shanahan, John Patrick
Sharp Defence     19:20    Hamilton    Osborne, R J    McGuinness, Adrian
Zealous     20:55    Hamilton    Whillans, A C    Haynes, Sally
Breakfast     14:10    Haydock    McCain Jnr, D    Osborne, J A
Coach Party    13:50    Nottingham    George, Karen    Moore, J S
Report PHS July 20, 2018 4:52 PM BST
Switchers - Sat

Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Stars Over The Sea     14:25    Newbury    Williams, Ian    Bromhead, Henry De
Purple Rock     17:45    Lingfield    Kelleway, Miss Gay    Easterby, M W

Ladyvie     16:50    Cartmel    Stephen, Mrs Jackie    Pipe, D E
Monsieur Gibraltar     15:15    Market Rasen    Nicholls, P F    Loxton, Mrs Rose
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