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RyanWe
11 Feb 16 23:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 31,953 | Blogger: RyanWe's blog
Friday

Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair

Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.

Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.

Saturday

Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair

He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.

Where do I start with Modus?

2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.

Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.

JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.

The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.

He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.

I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.

I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.
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Report RyanWe July 10, 2017 2:13 PM BST
When your jock falls on the flat, I mean, give me a break CryLaugh
Report PHS July 10, 2017 6:56 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Almoqatel     19:45    Brighton    Lloyd-Beavis, Miss N    Newcombe, A G
Viewpoint     17:10    Pontefract    Bethell, Harriet    Appleby, M

Bingo George     13:55    Wolverhampton    Rimell, M G    Balding, A M
Men United     15:25    Wolverhampton    Bowring, S R    Moss, Garry
Bell Heather     15:25    Wolverhampton    Morris, Patrick    Fahey, R A
Jazz Legend     15:55    Wolverhampton    Murphy, Olly    Murphy, Anabel K
The Yellow Bus    16:25    Wolverhampton    Butler, John    Wigham, M
Royal Reserve    17:25    Wolverhampton    OMeara, D    Williams, Ian

Skilled    18:35    Uttoxeter    Murphy, Olly    Murphy, Anabel K
Champayne Ginger     18:35    Uttoxeter    Skelton, Daniel    Flynn, Paul W
Keens Token    19:05    Uttoxeter    Sanderson, Gary    Mulhall, C A
Chasing Headlights     19:05    Uttoxeter    Dunn, Mrs Alex    Lalor, Miss E
Betancourt     19:05    Uttoxeter    Ewart, J P L    Ross, Mrs John B
Sky of Stars     21:05    Uttoxeter    Murphy, Olly    Murphy, Anabel K
Mariners Moon     21:05    Uttoxeter    Bailey, Mrs Caroline    Holmes, P F

gelded in bold
Report PHS July 10, 2017 9:21 PM BST
I like the chance of Golconda Prince for Fahey/Hanagan tomorrow 0.5pt @11/2.

Fahey's 3yo Hcprs are 1/28 in the last 21 days, but a few have gone close, and the winner was on Saturday.

GP took the eye at Carlisle 2 runs back when easily going best 2f out, but seemingly toiling in the last 100yds in ground that wasn't as the described Good. Nevertheless, the form looks good, with winner Archis Affaire only beaten a neck by a Hugo Palmer horse last week, the pair 7L clear of the 3rd. The step back in trip and better ground should be in GP's favour tomorrow. The opposition doesn't look strong save for Kilbaha Lady.
Report REDROB July 10, 2017 9:56 PM BST
I do wish you would put the time and meeting PHS Crazy
Report REDROB July 10, 2017 9:57 PM BST
^^ 4-40 Ponte
Report PHS July 11, 2017 7:30 AM BST
Oh! Sorry, usually do, but not doing has crept in for the last two postsBlush
Report anth699 July 11, 2017 1:02 PM BST
wd phs!
4.25 Wolverhampton Mezmaar 18/1
Mezmaar is now a well handicapped horse who could run much better than his longish odds might suggest; he is a free going person who doesn’t always appreciate being held up and this afternoon we will let him go forward from his inside draw on the rails; if he can settle in front and the fractions drop right he has quite a serious each way chance this afternoon and Steve Drowne is exactly our man to do this.
Report PHS July 11, 2017 8:21 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Innoko     19:10    Bath    Stephens, Robert    Carroll, A W
Orbit Light     21:10    Bath    Gillard, Mark    Henderson, N J
Glenamoy Lad    17:50    Lingfield    Wigham, M    Condon, K J

Lazio     19:55    Kempton    Osborne, J A    Murphy, John Joseph
Report PHS July 11, 2017 8:22 PM BST
oops! Glenamoy Lad gelded.
Report REDROB July 11, 2017 9:49 PM BST
Did you notice those last 2 switchers at Wolves today PHS, was plenty of dough for both on course.
Report REDROB July 11, 2017 9:49 PM BST
Jeez, Bell Heather won there too.
Report REDROB July 11, 2017 9:51 PM BST
10/1 , 16/1 , 22/1
Report PHS July 12, 2017 8:54 AM BST
Blimey, that would've been a nice treble! Certainly a day for the switchers. No, didn't notice before you posted. Wonder if anyone did them? John Butler flying atm.
Report REDROB July 12, 2017 9:32 AM BST
Yeah the guy who owned Butlers winner only recently bought it, it was his first ever runner, backed it with all 6 books. Probably thinks it's an easy game now.
Report PHS July 12, 2017 4:33 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Kashmiri Sunset    16:50    Carlisle    Jardine, I    Elliott, Gordon
Viewpoint     16:25    Doncaster    Bethell, Harriet    Appleby, M
Busy Street    16:25    Doncaster    Haynes, Sally    Swinbank, G A
Silver Quay     19:45    Epsom    Frost, J D    Osborne, J A
Casemates Square     19:35    Newbury    Williams, Ian    Halford, M
King Of Rooks    16:35    Newmarket     Spiller, Henry    Hannon , Richard

Gelded in bold
Report REDROB July 12, 2017 4:52 PM BST

May 17, 2017 -- 5:43PM, PHS wrote:


If Rob's about, I've just noticed Wolf Country that runs in the Dante (15:30) is out of a Black Sam Bellamy mare. It's only won a maiden and is rated 99, so has a lot to find with the others, but just thought I'd flag it up. Might be worth an ew at 16/1 1/4 odds?


The first race at Newmarket tomorrow looks a more suitable trip than the Dante PHS, but did run well at York . Anyway, my only bet for tomorrow.

Report knavesmire007 July 12, 2017 5:16 PM BST
Mambo Spirit 6.10 Bath.Saw 20s a few minutes ago,has been backed into to 8s in quick time.Is Hught Taylor doing evening shift?
Report PHS July 12, 2017 7:40 PM BST
Innoko wins from the list. Looked at it in some detail but couldn't decide. Was 12 on here earlier, 6/1 SP.
Report PHS July 12, 2017 7:42 PM BST
Thanks for that Rob.
Report REDROB July 12, 2017 7:57 PM BST
^^ SB seem to be holding the 7's a long time .
Report RozelKid July 12, 2017 8:22 PM BST
4.20 Carlisle:  YPRES 12/1 BOG
Report Cork Langer July 13, 2017 4:24 PM BST
wd RK
Report PHS July 13, 2017 4:35 PM BST
VWD RKCool
Report PHS July 13, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Dark Confidant     18:05    Carlisle    McCain Jnr, D    Fahey, R A
Joysunny    17:55    Musselburgh    Coward, Miss J M    Easterby, M W
Delectation    15:35    Newmarket     Wohler, A    Smart, B
Night Of Glory    14:40    York    Balding, A M    OCallaghan, M D
Report knavesmire007 July 13, 2017 7:21 PM BST
Very nice winner Rozel Cool

Been too busy to see much racing today.

The class dropper Speedo Boy in 3pm at HQ friday has been mixing it with the snobs.Worth a look at 14/1.
Report RozelKid July 13, 2017 8:37 PM BST
Cheers chaps, hopefully have another winner in a few days time.
Report REDROB July 14, 2017 12:20 AM BST
Nice RK Cool
Report PHS July 14, 2017 8:03 AM BST
13:50 Newm - Fawaareq 0.5pt ew @ 6/1 BOG

Fawaareq has a good cruising speed and won nicely twice on the July course last year, looking like a well handicapped horse (luckily, a few finished close up in the second win, and he only went up 4lb to 93). He failed to win FTO this year despite getting 7lb and 16lb from the first two, but the 2nd, Oh This Is Us has turned out to be a Group 3 (minimum) horse and no doubt Afjaan will too. He's probably better on a straight track anyway.

I can't say he'll beat the 7lb well in Fav, but 6/4 the place 4 places (assuming we don't get 3 nr's) looks value to me.
Report Pinza July 14, 2017 1:03 PM BST
Boy In The Bar 4.35 Ascot a previous winner for "some guesses"
Same trainer has chance with Shady McCoy 1.50 Nmkt
and possibly Speedo Boy 3.00 Nmkt.

Also Like the look of Tom Dascombe runners today
Dragons Tail 2.50 Ascot
Azari 2.40 York
Report PHS July 14, 2017 3:05 PM BST
Just backed Leshlaa for a place late on. Just pipped for 3rd I think. Put an IR lay up at 1.11. Just pipped for 3rd I think.
Report PHS July 14, 2017 3:08 PM BST
oops! Was swapping that bit round then forgot to delete the first.
Report PHS July 14, 2017 3:49 PM BST
If 11/10 can be value, then Chemical Charge in the 18:55 Mus looks it.

Won a Conditions event at Donc when Frontiersman (Gp1 2nd since) and Muntahaa went a suicidal pace, then ran in a Nby Gp3 when I stated on here Oisin went too soon. That opinion was confirmed when CC ran in the Grp 2 Hardwicke and ran Idaho to 1.75L after not getting a clear run. Drops down to a Conditions race (that's 4 grades lower) today and really should beat Soldier In Action at level weights. Maleficent Queen getting 12lb is probably the more likely threat.

I'm prepared to be embarassed!
Report PHS July 14, 2017 3:57 PM BST
^actually, Beckett confirmed that "Oisin said he hit the front too soon" in an RP Stable Tour.

Did the same again today on Leshlaa imo after racing too close to the pace.
Report PHS July 14, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Edge Of Sanity    16:45    York    Jardine, I    Ellison, B
Miss Minuty    20:50    Salisbury    Scott, J    Dunn, Mrs Alex

Gelded in bold
Report RozelKid July 14, 2017 5:35 PM BST
This Tim Easterby has to be one of the shrewdest trainers in these hcaps at York - but for the life of me i can never catch him. Bookies must love him.
Report PHS July 14, 2017 5:39 PM BST
Agree, very difficult to predict some of his winners e.g. Snoano at RA.
Report RozelKid July 14, 2017 6:27 PM BST
he has a bunch of runner at Carlisle tonight - some fancied ones and some outsiders


21:20 14th Jul 17    Carlisle    1m 3f 39y    6    Bollin Ted            D Fentiman
20:45 14th Jul 17    Carlisle    1m 1f            5    Brother McGonagall    D Allan
19:05 14th Jul 17    Carlisle    5f            4    Computable            D Allan
18:35 14th Jul 17    Carlisle    5f 193y            4    North Road Revue    D Allan
Report RozelKid July 14, 2017 9:15 PM BST
15:25 Newmarket: Donncha 28/1
Report RozelKid July 14, 2017 9:21 PM BST
15:25 Newmarket: Tony Curtis 33/1
Report knavesmire007 July 15, 2017 8:44 AM BST
BlushBrave selection at 11/10 PHS wd.Bit of profit eaked out nicely.
Report knavesmire007 July 15, 2017 9:11 AM BST
Brando 33/1 ew July Cup .

Was the very well fancied 5/2 fav for the Duke of York Stakes on soft ground after impressing when beating a weak field in the Abernant Stakes on

the quick Rowley track.Broke a blood vessel and finished out the back of the telly at York.Just think it's too big a price to ignore.
Report PHS July 15, 2017 9:55 AM BST
Ta KnavesHappy
Report PHS July 15, 2017 2:37 PM BST
Think that 14:30 York shows why Chemical Charge was great value yesterday. Barsanti Ev money always had Rare Rhythm as a viable rival and Barsanti had never even run at the trip.
Report PHS July 15, 2017 4:15 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Letemgo     14:30    Perth    Hamilton, A B    Gordon, C
Swantykay     16:10    Perth    Murtagh, Barry    Holden, Miss Ellmarie
Agentleman     13:45    Southwell    Williams, Evan    Brotherton, R
Pershing    15:25    Southwell    Murphy, Olly    Hennessy, Robert Alan
Varene De Vauzelle     16:30    Southwell    Murphy, Olly    Hourigan, Michael
Biento Madame    17:40    Southwell    Stronge, Aaron    Taaffe, T J
The Raven Master     14:10    Stratford    Skelton, Daniel    Bell, M L W
Mauricio     14:10    Stratford    Newland, Dr R D P    McCreery, W
Lucky Esteem    14:10    Stratford    Mulholland, N P    Johnston, M
Double Chocolate    14:40    Stratford    Oshea, J G M    Keighley, M
Dollar And A Dream     15:15    Stratford    Mullineaux, M    Martin, A J
Bahumbug    17:30    Stratford    Plessis, Miss J Du    Mullins, J W
Ramore Will     18:00    Stratford    Gordon, C    Ferguson, I R
Mr Caffrey    18:00    Stratford    Newland, Dr R D P    Flint, J L
Report PHS July 15, 2017 4:47 PM BST
VWD knavesCool
Report knavesmire007 July 16, 2017 10:23 AM BST
Cheers PHS.I thought it ran a nice race considering the pace/going/track.
Report PHS July 16, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Strong Steps    14:30    Ayr    Goldie, J S    Fell, Roger
Mysterious Glance    15:15    Ffos Las    Hollinshead, Sarah    McMahon, E S
Smooth Operator    15:45    Ffos Las    Pitman, M    Martin, A J
Jump Around    16:45    Ffos Las    Stronge, Ali    Burke, K R
Neptune Star    17:50    Windsor    Easterby, M W    Gask, J R
The Twisler    20:20    Windsor    Mulholland, N P    Ingram, R

Sevilla    19:10    Wolverhampton    Murphy, Olly    Murphy, Anabel K
Monologue     19:10    Wolverhampton    Mulholland, N P    Hodgson, Simon
Report PHS July 17, 2017 6:10 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Pumaflor     16:45    Beverley    OMeara, D    Whitaker, R M
Bahkit     18:10    Thirsk    Haynes, Sally    Swinbank, G A
Chip Or Pellet    18:40    Thirsk    Midgley, P T    Tinkler, N
Canford Bay     19:40    Thirsk    Brittain, Antony    Dods, M
Nellie Deen     20:10    Thirsk    Fell, Roger    Elsworth, D R C
Dream On Dreamer     21:10    Thirsk    Brittain, Antony    Dods, M
               
Exitas     18:00    Worcester    Middleton,P W     Hales, A M
King Alfonso    20:30    Worcester    Burchell, D    Mulholland, N P
Baratineur     20:30    Worcester    Hawker, Richard    Henderson, N J
Report REDROB July 18, 2017 12:23 AM BST
Amood 4-15 Beverley 7/1

Dropped to a grade 5 for the first time since winning at Newcy 9 months ago. Rated 78 on the AW, ran off 72 at York in a class 4 2 runs back, finishing a couple of lengths adrift of Our Dad Syd who was sent of fav for a competitive h'cap at ascot on Saturday (2nd). Amood runs off 70 here, his lowest ever mark.
PHS's Talent Scout catches the eye at his favourite track, but not sure the drop back in trip will suit.

GL all.
Report RyanWe July 18, 2017 6:54 AM BST
Back again, good to see the winners (RK, PHS), and good place efforts flowing (Knaves)

Worcester 8.30 Calva D'Honoure - 9/1 tops

A 6 year old gelding for Ben Pauling, having his second start in handicap hurdle company later today.

His jumping has been slowly improving with each run, it started off pretty erratic, with a strong tendency to jump out to his left.

He really has run a lot better than the bare form in novice/maiden hurdle company, and he looked to have the field stretched stepped up in trip to 20.5f on handicap debut, but for weakening late on. He eventually finished 3rd, but the winner went on to win his next two starts, and is now 15lb higher in the handicap, where as CD dropped 1lb.

Back down to 16f looks the right move, and I know Pauling was expecting him to come on for his handicap debut last month, as it was his first run for 3 months.

I couldn't work out why Daryl Jacob was on board, as I couldn't find him riding for the trainer or owner before, but it turns out it's his first start for the new boss (CHEERS ELLIS), so hopefully they can make it a winning one.

For me, I wouldn't have this horse above 6/1 because he is still the unexposed horse in the field.
Report RyanWe July 18, 2017 9:09 AM BST
Worcester 7.30 Taroum - EW 20/1

This looks to be a bad race, despite the numbers, no wonder so many trainers are trying to get rid.

Taroum isn't getting any younger at 10 years of age, but he won one of these selling handicap hurdles back in November, over the same distance - that was off a mark of 90, and today he has a good 7lb claimer on, resulting in him running off 81. If you watch his last run at Cheppers off 91, he was there to challenge, and really didn't run that badly, I like to think if he had another 10lb off that day, he would have gone close - although I do think his stamina is stretched too at 19.5f at that track - 20f at Worcester looks ideal.

He's been running OK on the flat of late, and the stable seem in good nick at the moment these past two weeks (2 from 11 - 18%).
Report PHS July 18, 2017 12:48 PM BST

Jul 14, 2017 -- 9:21PM, RozelKid wrote:


15:25 Newmarket: Tony Curtis 33/1


You didn't mention ew, but a belated WD if you backed it that wayCool.

Report RozelKid July 18, 2017 3:52 PM BST
i did indeed back it ew - should have put that up.

Ryan , HARDTOROCK is running tomorrow in the 3pm Uttoxeter - just in case you are reading this.
Report PHS July 18, 2017 5:51 PM BST
18:45 Yarm - Good Omen 5/1 BOG be quick
Report PHS July 18, 2017 5:51 PM BST
18:45 Yarm - Good Omen 5/1 BOG be quick
Report PHS July 18, 2017 6:03 PM BST
18:45 Yarm 10f Cl2 3yo+ Hcp

I have Brorocco and First Flight in my To Follows, but I've just watched this Good Omen win on his penultimate start. It's really worth a watch. They went a steady pace, Spencer had him last but he still had the horse cruising up 1f out to beat some very decent 3yo's very easily. That was on Soft ground, but I don't think the going will be a problem tomorrow. He's a half-brother to Folkswood, who's rated 112.

The books have Brorocco 5/2 fav because he was unlucky not to get a run through at Epsom 2 runs back before possibly failing to stay 12f at Hayd, and is said to be much improved this year by Balding, but Great Hall re-opposes having tried to give Brorocco 17lb in April and being beaten just 1.3l; tomorrow he only gives Brorocco 7lbs - 10lb for 1.3L.

I've staked 1pt @ 5/1.
Report PHS July 18, 2017 6:11 PM BST
^ The point about Brorocco, is will he even beat Great Hall never mind the 3yo's who he has to give 9lb weight for age.
Report PHS July 18, 2017 6:22 PM BST
Will probably drift to 7's overnight on BF now that I've posted the aboveLaugh
Report PHS July 18, 2017 6:37 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Caesars Comet     16:55    Catterick    Midgley, P T    Halford, M
Gabrial The Terror     17:25    Catterick    Morris, Patrick    Williams, Ian
Bobs Boy    17:25    Catterick    Greenall, Oliver    Greatrex, W J
Unsuspected Girl     15:25    Lingfield    Barr, Brian    Simcock, D M
Ubla     19:50    Yarmouth    Chapple-Hyam, Jane    Kelleway, Miss Gay

Packettotherafters     15:00    Uttoxeter    Hanmer, G D    Whitehead, Miss S
Classic Jewel     15:00    Uttoxeter    Williams, Evan    Barry, J R
Lunar Logic    16:40    Uttoxeter    Davies, Miss Sarah-Jayne    Elliott, Gordon
Beau Bay     16:40    Uttoxeter    Newland, Dr R D P    Jones, A E
Report RozelKid July 18, 2017 6:39 PM BST
8.20 Yarmouth : Percy Topliss EW 10/1 BOG - Saver on Shyarch also 10/1
Report RyanWe July 18, 2017 6:51 PM BST
A great placer then RK, well done.

And yeah, I saw HTR was out again - this does look a pretty dire affair.

I am a sucker for these low grade Irish switchers though, so I'm really interested to see what Classic Jewel (10/1 at the momemt) does in the market on his first start for Evan Williams - as I do think the handicapper has given him a big chance over here off 82.
Report RozelKid July 19, 2017 12:58 AM BST
4.20 Catterick: OUTFOX 11/1 EW BOG

No clue on form - but his rating exceeds majority of these - step up furlong and drop in class

Connections ( Crossfields Racing ) bring 2 horses to this meeting - their other runner is a fancied 4/1 shot in the previous race - but me thinks this runner of theirs represents better value.
Report PHS July 19, 2017 12:59 PM BST

Jul 18, 2017 -- 5:51PM, PHS wrote:


18:45 Yarm - Good Omen 5/1 BOG be quick


Simcock's lighter weighted other 3yo (Timeform selection and gets a stone from Good Omen and 2 stone from the top weight) has now been very well backed. Bookies will be happy. They seem to have had money for everything.

Report flukes July 19, 2017 3:08 PM BST
Great shout Ryan
Report RozelKid July 19, 2017 3:10 PM BST
Brilliant Ryan - i got on at 10s last night and again this morning - great shout with its weight.
Report Cork Langer July 19, 2017 3:29 PM BST
wd ryan
Report PHS July 19, 2017 3:33 PM BST
WD Ryan. I completely forgot about that one after backing it last nightCool.
Report PHS July 19, 2017 4:31 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
American History (USA)    20:50    Doncaster    Muir, W R    Gosden, J H M
Lydiate Lady    14:30    Hamilton    Alston, E J    Green, Paul
Nathan    14:10    Leicester    King, A    Crisford, Simon

American History gelded
Report RyanWe July 19, 2017 6:09 PM BST
Cheers.

I needed one at a good SP for a change - pad up those stats of mine Laugh
Report Cork Langer July 19, 2017 7:03 PM BST
wd phs
Report knavesmire007 July 19, 2017 7:50 PM BST
Very well done Ryan and PHS(especially with the price) Cool
Report RozelKid July 19, 2017 11:46 PM BST
Ryan saved me today - extremely dissapointed with my losers.
Report RozelKid July 20, 2017 1:50 AM BST
wd PHS - 15/8 sp  advised 5/1 Cool
Report flukes July 20, 2017 8:08 AM BST
Great shout PHS
Report RyanWe July 20, 2017 9:26 AM BST
Very nice PHS.
Report PHS July 20, 2017 11:22 AM BST
Thanks guysHappy. There was a 20p R4 so 5/1 became 4/1, but nice to get a decent stake on one that wins.
Report PHS July 20, 2017 11:24 AM BST
Ham 16:10 - X Rated 9/2 BOG 0.5pt

Not sure why this LTO Mark Johnston winner is drifting (it was 9/4 last night, which probably was too short). Maybe it's the strength of money for Jedd O'Keefe's Desert Ruler. He's been absent for 66 days though and always seems well supported. The Irish raider (Fav) looks a bigger danger.

X Rated came back to form dropped in class last time. Fanning rode a canny ride and I thought he was value for more than the winning distance. The Fav's form LTO (2nd over C&D) stands up well though, with the winner 3rd  and 4th all winning NTO. He'll be a tough nut to crack but getting 9lb WFA and from the 1 draw, X Rated looks too big at 9/2.
Report PHS July 20, 2017 11:29 AM BST
^added the Fivehundredmiles/X Rated fcast saver for 0.1pt @ 9.56/1
Report PHS July 20, 2017 5:17 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Hee Haw     18:50    Hamilton    Midgley, P T    Dalgleish, Keith
Twin Star     19:55    Hamilton    Balding, A M    Lavery, Ms Sheila
Epitaph     20:35    Pontefract    Appleby, M    OBrien, Joseph Patrick
Report RyanWe July 21, 2017 3:27 PM BST
Market Rasen 3.20

Shelford (14/1)
Cup Final (14/1)

Stake saver on It's A Gimme too (12/1)

There is rain about in the morning, we don't know how much yet, but there could be some good to soft.

Clearly this race looks ultra competitive, but my thoughts are that the main protagonist are vulnerable to unexposed types, as there have been some fair hikes in the ratings.

Both of my selections are novices, and have marks significantly lower rated over fences compared to their respective hurdle mark, which I like to think is by design.

Shelford is rated 140 over hurdles, but runs off 129 tomorrow after a fine 2nd in the Summer Cup at Toxxy. It's his jumping that has been letting him down, and I think 26f stretches his stamina. 22f tomorrow, I'm hoping to see him ridden more prominently this time, as I think that's where you get the most out of him.

Cup Final was rated 146 over hurdles when leaving Henderson to join Ben Haslam. He's gone through the motions in novice chasers over inadequate trips between 16-20f, although he looked all over the winner last time but for losing on the nod at Hexham. where I was taken with how he jumped and travelled. He's 7lb better off with his successor for a nose, and runs off 132 tomorrow.
Report RyanWe July 21, 2017 3:31 PM BST
I cannae see my own posts

Does this happen to other people? Or it's delayed somewhat.

I'm not even sure why I'm typing this out, at this rate, it will probably turn up after the race has finished Cry
Report RyanWe July 21, 2017 3:33 PM BST
Had the stake saver on IAG because he won the race 3 years ago (2lb lower), and ran a lot better than the bare 6th two years ago off 9lb higher than tomorrow too.

Although I still like to think he's not hiding as much from the handicapper as the other two I picked out have.
Report FOYLESWAR July 21, 2017 3:35 PM BST
its up ryan
Report PHS July 21, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Ayresome Angel    17:55    Haydock    Mackie, J    Smart, B
Start Time     19:30    Haydock    Midgley, P T    Suroor, Saeed Bin
Kashmiri Sunset    20:00    Haydock    Jardine, I    Elliott, Gordon
Straight Right     13:50    Newbury    Balding, A M    Ferland, C
Royal Diplomat     14:55    Ripon    Fahey, R A    Keatley, Adrian Paul
Mustaaqeem     16:05    Ripon    Fahey, R A    Stoute, Sir Michael
Henry Smith    16:05    Ripon    Weymes, J R    Moss, Garry
The Twisler    17:15    Ripon    Mulholland, N P    Ingram, R

Apache Jack     16:15    Cartmel    Crawford, S R B    Hughes, Sandra
Mcgroarty     13:35    Market Rasen    Newland, Dr R D P    Kiely, David A
Report PHS July 21, 2017 5:29 PM BST
Friday
20:05 Pont - Red Tea 10/1 BOG

Missed the 11/1 (still some with small books) waiting for a bigger price on here.

Outsider of 7. Won over C&D 2 runs back, showing a sharp turn of foot to settle it quickly. The hopeful plan is Cote D'Azur will hassle Sands Chorus up front, and we'll get a true run race. That's what happened when the filly Red Tea won last time. Alejandro took Sands Chorus on for the lead and it set it up for the closer. 3yo Morning Suit could be a danger, but it's a very competitive race all round, so no saver.
Report Cork Langer July 21, 2017 6:59 PM BST
redrob, hope you stayed loyal and gave Rose one more chance, I didn't....!
Report REDROB July 21, 2017 8:09 PM BST
I missed her too Corky, didnt know she was running till just looked at the days results, gutted would be putting it mildly.
Report PHS July 21, 2017 8:14 PM BST
Now then, if she'd gone through that gap would she have won or would the other filly have had too much for her? Almost went to plan. Certainly think she would have gone low enough to get my stake back.
Report PHS July 21, 2017 8:22 PM BST
Think I saw 4.x 3 places on here, just after the race. Was too busy finishing dinner to look at before the race (it drifted to 19 on here at the off). WD anyone that took it.
Report knavesmire007 July 21, 2017 9:08 PM BST
Good effort,well worked out PHS.
Report knavesmire007 July 21, 2017 9:53 PM BST
Visionary-3.00 Newb each way bog 16/1, 20/1 with pp.

Looking for an angle into the saturday cards and decided on "soft ground horses Newbury".Rain forecast to hit the course overnight.Two from two with "soft" in going description.Doesn't exactly point it's toe over the ground,has a slow action.Bit disappointing at Royal Ascot on good to firm.Won Listed race on soft two runs back with Koropick(about 7/1 in this race ) 12l behind.
Report RyanWe July 21, 2017 10:25 PM BST
If Red Tea got through the gap and got first run, she may have nicked it - but I guess we will never know.
Report BlindProbe July 22, 2017 4:40 AM BST
"I'll take Manchego in the 3.50 for 2 please Bob."
Report BlindProbe July 22, 2017 4:58 AM BST
A few extra guesses, if i may?

15:20 Earthmoves
16:30 Rouge Devils
16:50 Trillerin Minella ew
Report RozelKid July 22, 2017 6:42 AM BST
That happens to me too Ryan - i post the reply and i won't be able to see my message unless i restart the browser
Report RyanWe July 22, 2017 8:13 AM BST
Normally just takes me about 5 mins to see them, weird.
Report RozelKid July 22, 2017 8:15 AM BST
Looks a competitive race - but i really like the chances of this one - im going ew which i dont normally do with prices below 16s - just will increase my stake.

4.50 Cartmel: Pena Dorada 8/1 EW BOG
Report PHS July 22, 2017 10:55 AM BST

Jul 22, 2017 -- 8:15AM, RozelKid wrote:


Looks a competitive race - but i really like the chances of this one - im going ew which i dont normally do with prices below 16s - just will increase my stake.4.50 Cartmel: Pena Dorada 8/1 EW BOG


nr Going

Report PHS July 22, 2017 11:02 AM BST

Jul 21, 2017 -- 10:25PM, RyanWe wrote:


If Red Tea got through the gap and got first run, she may have nicked it - but I guess we will never know.


Thanks Ryan. I like to hear others opinions.

It looked like there was room to get through, but she seemed reluctant, or was it the jockey (I've seen criticism of Probert on here recently) that was reluctant (those gaps can close quickly)? Hard to tell. The winner's run looked powerful, but if one horse starts it's run 50yds before another, it has momentum whilst the other needs 20yds+ just to get up to the same speed.

Report pumphol. July 22, 2017 1:09 PM BST
Popeswood - 8.15 Lin 20/1

Not backed the horse for best part of two years, that was at Goodwood when just touched off after being heavily backed early doors due to the change to softer conditions, won in Oct 15 off a mark of 77 & since then has run mainly on AW or faster conditions, all best runs point to it liking soft ground, has never run in a class six hcp on turf let alone on its preferred soft ground, last win was off 77 in a class 4 comes into this class 6 off 60 has blinkers on for the first time & has a favourable high draw, yes has to put a lot of mediocre efforts behind him but its still only a five year old &  hopeful that this soft ground could well bring about a marked improvement.
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