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RyanWe
11 Feb 16 23:12
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Apr 07
| Topic/replies: 31,993 | Blogger: RyanWe's blog
Friday

Always On The Run - 2.05 at Kempton - 6/1 with a few books, 7.2 on betfair

Missed the party a bit here, too busy crying over more odds on in running losers, but the show must goes on. Someone else pointed this horse out to me (TheSecret), absolutely loved this horse's first run for Tom George on New Year's Eve. It was his first run over fences, crazy fresh, too keen, but jumped like a bunny. I really think this horse is going to be a lot better over fences, and although he's bred to stay 3 miles, I do think dropping to 16f is the right thing to do if you're not going to put him in a hood. He ran such a nice race at Warwick, and it doesn't look like much was expected, because he was sent off at 12/1 - whether that was because of fitness, or doubts about the ground, I'm not sure, but he'll be getting some better ground tomorrow, and these other trainers have all been doing so well with these ex McCain horses, that I wouldn't expect this to be any different.

Hopefully.. Just blast him from the front, catch me if you can, a bit like when they had Stellar Notion, Nacarat etc etc they love their front runners at Kempton.

Saturday

Modus in the Betfair hurdle - Currently 11.0 on betfair

He's only top price 7/1 with the books at the moment, sure to drift out with them if he stays at this price, but this whole reaction of Bazza picking that Mullins horse is way over the top.

Where do I start with Modus?

2nd in the Champion bumper last season, had Yanworth behind him in 4th, and the rest. A fine 3rd in the Punchestown bumper too.

Both of these runs were achieved with a pretty average trainer in Robert Stephens, sorry Stevo.

JP buys him, whacks him with Nicholls. Wins easily on his first two starts, but throws a bad one in when last seen on heavy ground. Not that it was terrible, but it was still disappointing. It wouldn't come as a surprise to hear that the stable strike rate was 10% in December, something rarely seen for the champion trainer.

The stable are flying again now though, 33%. Even the horses losing are running crackers.

He's got a mark of 139, which looks lenient to me. He beat Charmix off levels pretty cosily, and I know that horse has improved for stepping up in trip but the handicapper thinks he's 145 rated. Charmix beat Emerging Force by 38 lengths, and we saw him win a handicap off 129 today. I know Emerging Force might of ran below par that day, and he probably improved for the step up in trip too today, but there is just so many horses that Modus has beat that make him look a horse who could turn out to be top class.

I suppose there is question marks over the horse on heavy ground, we don't know if that's what we are going to get yet. A dry day tomorrow, and it might chuck it down on Saturday, but at least it will be sloppy ground, not tacky.

I think the horse is miles better than his mark of 139. I know other horses are probably chucked in too, but I feel like there is a lot more to come.
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Report PHS August 26, 2017 12:12 PM BST
18:25 Red - Zeshov 12/1 0.5pt

At 12/1, Zeshov looks too big. He ran well last time but couldn't run on on the GS ground. Today he's back on his favoured Good (GFIP) which could be GF by 18:25. All the pace is high and he's behind it whereas the first two in the betting are drawn low where there's no pace.
Report contrary45 August 26, 2017 12:35 PM BST
2.25York SecretAdvisor,3.35 York Scarlet Dragon,2.45 Good Truth or dare
Report PHS August 26, 2017 5:17 PM BST
WD contraryCool
Report PHS August 26, 2017 5:18 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Her Terms    17:40    Goodwood    Cox, C G    Haggas, W J
African Blessing    17:50    Yarmouth    Wallis, Charlie    Barron, T D
Report PHS August 26, 2017 6:28 PM BST

Aug 26, 2017 -- 12:12PM, PHS wrote:


18:25 Red - Zeshov 12/1 0.5ptAt 12/1, Zeshov looks too big. He ran well last time but couldn't run on on the GS ground. Today he's back on his favoured Good (GFIP) which could be GF by 18:25. All the pace is high and he's behind it whereas the first two in the betting are drawn low where there's no pace.


went 1.44

Report RozelKid August 27, 2017 1:05 AM BST
Unlucky PHS - thank fcuk for Betfair.

WD Contrary
Report PHS August 27, 2017 12:28 PM BST
16:40 Yar - Red Tea 0.5pt

I've backed the outsider of 7 at 14 on BF (some 11/1 avail). Possibly not given the greatest of rides by Probert 2 runs back and the winner had the advantage of Georgia Cox taking 5lb off, and a perfectly timed run. Red Tea has her favoured GF ground today and Luke Morris rides (although he's a poor 0-23 for Hiatt on turf, much better on the AW). Can see a few holes in the oppo. The Fav folded tamely over a mile on GF last time at Newm, albeit he was up there all the way until 1f out in a strong 3yo Hcp.
Report PHS August 27, 2017 4:31 PM BST
17:55 Bev

Mr C is too big now at 6.6 (some 9/2) on here. Raced wide all the way round when winning last time. This doesn't look more difficult. Bromance a danger if came back to form, but couldn't back it.
Report bullraider August 27, 2017 4:43 PM BST
last?
Report bullraider August 27, 2017 4:43 PM BST
last?
Report PHS August 27, 2017 5:15 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Bohemian Rhapsody     16:35    Chepstow    Barr, Brian    Powell, B G
Bahkit     14:45    Ripon    Haynes, Sally    Swinbank, G A
Sfumato    15:20    Ripon    Jardine, I    Charlton, R
Barnaby Brook     17:35    Ripon    Dascombe, Tom    Brisland, Robyn

Skadi    13:30    Southwell    Thompson, D W    Moss, Garry

Dubh Des Champs     14:20    Cartmel    Kirby, P A    Fry, Harry
Glorvina     14:55    Cartmel    Mann, C J    OMeara, D
Report RozelKid August 27, 2017 9:34 PM BST
4.15 Southwell : CLASSIC FLYER 14/1 EW BOG - generally 12s

Too well hcapped to ignore imo
Report RozelKid August 28, 2017 1:31 PM BST
3.25 Chepstow : Wilspas Magic 28/1 EW BOG
Report RozelKid August 28, 2017 4:22 PM BST
jeez, a Monday to forget
Report PHS August 28, 2017 4:28 PM BST
Yeah, I had a Sunday to forget yesterday. On a losing run of 12 at the mo.
Report PHS August 28, 2017 4:31 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Mitigate    16:00    Ripon    Chapple-Hyam, Jane    Elsworth, D R C

Mister Big     16:35    Newton Abbot    King, N B    Hobbs, P J
Gamain     16:35    Newton Abbot    Williams, Nick    Case, B I
Dpinesflyer     16:35    Newton Abbot    Farrelly, Johnny    Neville, Patrick
Triggywinkle     17:05    Newton Abbot    Buckler, R H    Young, Mrs L J
Thelunarschooner     19:35    Newton Abbot    Greatrex, W J    Kelly, David Harry
Broke Away     19:35    Newton Abbot    Dunn, Mrs Alex    Mullins, Ms Margaret
Report RozelKid August 28, 2017 10:54 PM BST

Jul 3, 2017 -- 10:03PM, anth699 wrote:


well this is a monster guess,probably but who knows,just some stats i received tonight,PA kirby has only had 2 runners in maidens at hamilton class 5,both won on their 2nd run,he has 2 runners in the maiden at 3pm hamilton,the one that fits the criteria of the 2 previous winners is SHINE BABY SHINE,he also saddles TRUE BALLEW,drop back in trip should suit SBS,SHINE BABY SHINE  100/1 PP  E/WTRUE BELLEW  saver e/w @ 40/1we all like a good guess!


Did you keep the faith Ant ?

I think it could pay to follow Philip Kirby in the upcoming fortnight or so. I rate him as a shrewd trainer.

Report RozelKid August 28, 2017 10:58 PM BST
Taken from his P Kirby's website.

"Shine Baby Shine is at Southwell with Patrick Mathers taking the ride for her first go on the fibresand following her practice round there last week. She handled it very well in practice, but some horses love racing on it, and some hate it as the kick back can be a little off putting for them in the heat of battle!
Report PHS August 29, 2017 6:46 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Island Authority    19:25    Kempton    Stanford, E V    Dunlop, E A L

Riverside City     17:05    Worcester    ONeill, Jonjo    Elliott, Gordon
Ring Eye     18:35    Worcester    Davies, Miss Sarah-Jayne    Oshea, J G M
Horseshoe Bay     19:05    Worcester    Skelton, Daniel    Stoute, Sir Michael
Report RozelKid August 30, 2017 3:12 PM BST
3.20 Catterick: ACRUX 13/2 - form working out well - http://www.skysports.com/racing/results/full-result/792486/doncaster/19-08-2...
Report RozelKid August 30, 2017 3:16 PM BST
3.30 Mussleburgh: Rosina 14/1 ew

was very impressed with its win LTO - its drifted badly so its a slight worry - but i just think it had so much in hand last time .
Report REDROB August 30, 2017 3:18 PM BST
Yeah RK, backed her last time and again today, took 7.6 last night, followed it out today, was happy with 7.6 last night, but now 20+ .
Report RozelKid August 30, 2017 3:31 PM BST
Can't see why Rosina is so big - this game does your head in sometimes.

If Rosina puts in a bad performance today then it sway me in keeping  her in my notebook - I definitely think she is one to keep a close eye on if she turns up in some better races before the season is over. 

Look at Acrux there - not even at the races - this is why i hate making recent form the basis of my selections - its too easy to make these selections but i cant help myself sometimes - recent form means nothing in these  midweek hcaps and ive just had a look in the mirror and repeated that 10 times.- lol
Report REDROB August 30, 2017 3:33 PM BST
Hence the drift Cry
Report RozelKid August 30, 2017 3:46 PM BST
ffs - kept stone last throughout
Report PHS August 30, 2017 7:06 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Just For The Craic     13:40    Bath    Mulholland, N P    Carr, Mrs R A
Broadhaven Honey     15:10    Bath    Harris, R A    Carroll, A W
Holiday Girl     16:10    Bath    Houghton, Eve Johnson    McCreery, W
Rajar    16:00    Musselburgh    Fahey, R A    Hannon , Richard
Quiet Moment     16:35    Musselburgh    Dalgleish, Keith    Haslam, B M R

Castleacre    14:50    Chelmsford City    Tate, James    Palmer, Hugo
Murdanova     15:20    Chelmsford City    Quinn, Denis P    Loughnane, Daniel Mark
Stanley    16:50    Chelmsford City    Hughes, Richard    Cumani, L M
Fortia    16:50    Chelmsford City    Ivory, D K    Haggas, W J
Caracas    16:50    Chelmsford City    Dunlop, H J L    Charlton, R
Yorkshire Monarch     17:40    Wolverhampton    Hollinshead, Sarah    Easterby, T D
Madrasa     17:40    Wolverhampton    Wingrove, K G    Forbes, A L
Mehdi     20:10    Wolverhampton    Morris, Patrick    Fahey, R A
Kingsley Klarion     20:10    Wolverhampton    Butler, John    Johnston, M

Friendly Royal     18:30    Sedgefield    England, Sam    Smith, Mrs S J
Nemean Lion     19:00    Sedgefield    Kirby, P A    OBrien, Joseph Patrick
Bafana Blue    19:00    Sedgefield    Barnes, M A    Grant, C
Just Chilly    19:30    Sedgefield    Dobbin, Mrs R    Russell, Miss Lucinda V
Report PHS August 31, 2017 4:30 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Red Alert    14:10    Sandown    Muir, W R    Tuite, Joseph
Merdon Castle     14:10    Sandown    Chapple-Hyam, Jane    Carr, Mrs R A
Lady Volante     17:10    Thirsk    Menzies, Rebecca    Egerton, Lucinda

St Peters Square     16:50    Bangor    Dunn, Mrs Alex    Doyle, Eoin

Been very few gelded switchers recently, so I won't bother checking them for a while now.
Report RozelKid August 31, 2017 7:39 PM BST
pretty peeved off - meant to back the kirby horses today - got sidetracked.
Report PHS September 1, 2017 8:34 AM BST

Aug 28, 2017 -- 4:28PM, PHS wrote:


Yeah, I had a Sunday to forget yesterday. On a losing run of 12 at the mo.


I know Hugh Taylor's not had any winners since he came back from holiday. Just visited his twitter account and I counted 19 selections since he came back, so it happens to us all.

Report foxcovert September 1, 2017 2:11 PM BST
Trying a speculative EW on Art Collection 4:05 Thirsk

Now 7lb better off with Red Pike from when they last met and got beat 2½ lengths, Red then went on to run a cracker in the St Wilfrid consolation race Class 2 (2/20 nk). Ground prob didnt suit Art that day either and was his first run for two months. Red Pike is deserved fav off the Ripon run but he's up 6lb for it and is 4/1 and Art is 20/1
Report PHS September 1, 2017 5:01 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Knotty Jack     14:40    Beverley    Grant, C    Jardine, I
Apricot Sky    16:25    Beverley    Dods, M    Ellison, B
Lethal Lunch    16:10    Sandown    Cox, C G    Hannon , Richard

Holeinthewall Bar     16:35    Newton Abbot    Barfoot-Saunt, Mrs Tracey    Elliott, Gordon
Ann Maries Reject     17:40    Newton Abbot    Gray, C J    Barr, Brian
Report RozelKid September 2, 2017 12:47 PM BST
00.17am Saratoga: Sarandia  - markets haven't really formed yet - you can take 7/2 - 9/2 over there at the moment

German mare - ran in a Grade 1 Beverley D last time out over 9.5f

Source- Peter Schiergen website after running in the Grade 1 the Beverley D

Sarandia remains in the USA 14.08.2017 -  Sarandia took a good sixth place in Arlington and made a lot of ground from the penultimate position. She was not far back. She will now travel to Saratoga with her nurse Mira and will be prepared for her next start in a Grade 3 race in early September"

she won 2 listed races in Germany this year very easily

It was only a year ago when Sarandia came 2nd in last year’s Group 1 German Oaks over 1m4 when leading from the gate - She was only headed 100 yards out  but keeping up to her work and looking genuine - Hugo Palmer's 4yo Architecture came 3rd last year in that German Oaks after a previous 2nd place in the Group 1 Darley Irish Oaks at the Curragh to O'Brien's Seventh Heaven....and 2 months earlier coming 2nd to Minding in the Epsom Oaks.


Iam hoping for 9/2-5/1 -If evens is available in the place market at anytime then  its the bet of the day for me .
Report RozelKid September 2, 2017 4:26 PM BST
BF Sportsbook have opened up at 5/1 -  if you are an ew punter then you you get stake back if she places.
Report PHS September 2, 2017 5:02 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Maid Of Tuscany    16:45    Worcester    Mulholland, N P    Dunn, Mrs Alex
Report RozelKid September 3, 2017 12:23 AM BST
head in hands - that one hurt.Blush
Report jon b September 3, 2017 12:26 AM BST
it did didn,t it, went out like a light, the 2nd was well punted from 16s very quickly
Report RozelKid September 3, 2017 3:02 PM BST
I seen that Jon- the 2nd "Grateful (USA)"  was 20s in the morning - 20s into 7s very quickly

I've done a few quid there- stings abit.
Report PHS September 3, 2017 5:26 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Almoqatel     14:30    Brighton    Newcombe, A G    Lloyd-Beavis, Miss N
Flaming Fynn    16:00    Brighton    Burgoyne, P    Gillard, Mark
Ambuscade    16:30    Brighton    Mulholland, N P    Morrison, H
Rubheira    17:30    Brighton    Mulholland, N P    Burgoyne, P
Dutch Artist     15:10    Ripon    Brown, A D    OMeara, D
Thankyou Stars    16:10    Ripon    Portman, J G    Burke, K R
Report PHS September 4, 2017 10:06 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Crystal River    13:50    Hamilton    Haggas, W J    Suroor, Saeed Bin
Urban Spirit     16:10    Hamilton    Fell, Roger    OKeeffe, Jedd

Saria    17:50    Kempton    Carroll, A W    Loughnane, Daniel Mark
Zarliman     20:50    Kempton    Ingram, R    Mulholland, N P

Katy Royal    14:50    Hexham    Fairhurst, C W    Mactaggart, B
River Of Intrigue     15:25    Hexham    OBrien, Fergal    Henderson, N J
Dpinesflyer     16:00    Hexham    Farrelly, Johnny    Neville, Patrick
Rapid Fritz     17:10    Hexham    Thompson, V    Carr, John G
Report doncaster rover September 4, 2017 11:01 PM BST
Made of Honour 16/45 Hamilton Tuesday 4/9/17
Report PHS September 5, 2017 7:33 AM BST
^5/9/17
Report PHS September 5, 2017 6:15 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Shaya     14:10    Chepstow    Fell, Roger    Crisford, Simon
Amood     14:40    Chepstow    Watson, Archie    West, S G
Thechampagnesonice    15:10    Chepstow    Saunders, M S    De Giles, Ed
Peak Hill    16:40    Chepstow    Wintle, A    Evans, P D
Ladofash    13:50    Lingfield    Gordon, C    Burke, K R

River Of Intrigue     14:00    Southwell    OBrien, Fergal    Henderson, N J
Thepremierbroker     15:00    Southwell    OConnor, Ian    Candlish, Jennie
Free Bounty    16:30    Southwell    Mulholland, N P    McBride, P J
Report RozelKid September 5, 2017 11:33 PM BST
5.25 Kempton: NEVER FOLDING 12/1 EW BOG


Trainer has shown a bit of form recently - Interesting to see that they have dropped NF back to 7F - NF came 2nd in a Lingfield 6 runner maiden over 7f in February and the form of that maiden looks pretty good. Trainer is in much better form now too.   

Lingfield race - http://www.skysports.com/racing/results/full-result/763290/lingfield-park/28-02-2017/32red-casino-maiden-stakes

She came 2nd when splitting the places of a couple of colts who are well above this rating - at least 30lb in my book. The winner "Traveller" looks a solid 70/80 rated animal by the looks on his next run.

The 3rd that day "Island Brave "  came out on its next run , when an unfancied 14/1 shot,  and easily beat the David Simcock trained "Bless Him  a 4/9f who was making his debut " -  Bless Him now rated in the 90s won the Royal Ascot Britannia Stakes Hcap beating a 95 rated horse.

NF must surely must have a decent chance in this if running anything close to that 7f race in February - she is only running of a mark of 55 and i just think there is is more potential with her than alot of these in this race
Report PHS September 6, 2017 8:07 AM BST
^5.20 Kem
Report woodmanchester September 6, 2017 8:16 AM BST
Bidding for the jackpot!

Lingfield
2.20 2/1 Harbour Rock
3.20 9/4 Golden Image
4.20 6/4 Ragstone Road

Southwell
4.00 5/4 Air Squadron

Chepstow
4.40 3/1 Priors Brook

Ten trebles, Five four-folds and the five-timer pays over 200/1 BOG!
Report PHS September 6, 2017 9:37 AM BST
Yours has halved in price RKShocked
Report PHS September 6, 2017 4:31 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Swiss Psalm    13:50    Salisbury    Gillard, Mark    Hodgson, Simon
Sabre Squadron     16:50    Salisbury    King, A    Chapple-Hyam, P W

Hidden Stash    18:40    Chelmsford City    Stone, W B    Balding, A M
Golden Harbour     18:40    Chelmsford City    Hales, A M    Barr, Brian
Dharoos     20:10    Chelmsford City    Hawke, N J    Gosden, J H M
Welsh Rose    20:40    Chelmsford City    Watson, Archie    De Giles, Ed
Upper Lambourn     20:40    Chelmsford City    Quinn, Denis P    Holt, J R

Black Kettle     14:40    Sedgefield    Menzies, Rebecca    Delcros, Christian
Report RozelKid September 6, 2017 4:53 PM BST
Im going to speculate on these John Jenkins runners - ew combinations etc s,d,t

ive been keeping a close eye on Jenkins - the last winners he had were all in January - just got this feeling that it could pay to follow his runners over the next week or so - im speculating upon certain data

17:55 6th Sep 17    Kempton Park    7f    6    Little Indian    T P Queally 20/1
17:25 6th Sep 17    Lingfield Park    7f    6    Cool Echo    F Sweeney 7/1
17:20 6th Sep 17    Kempton Park    7f    6    Whaleweigh Station    S De Sousa 20/1


he also has runners entered at Brighton on the 11th at Brighton

17:25 11th Sep 17    Brighton    7f 211y    6    The Firm (IRE)   
16:55 11th Sep 17    Brighton    7f 211y    6    Cool Echo   
16:55 11th Sep 17    Brighton    7f 211y    6    Compton Brave   
14:25 11th Sep 17    Brighton    5f 215y    5    Pretty Bubbles
Report RozelKid September 6, 2017 5:26 PM BST
gutted - Never Folding bursting through the stalls at the start - this game can get so depressing - lol.
Report PHS September 7, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Sacred Act    17:00    Ascot    Bell, M L W    Gosden, J H M
Dwight D    17:20    Haydock    Coltherd, W S    Haggas, W J
Kicking The Can     18:05    Musselburgh    Wilson, N    Thompson, D W
Bernies Boy    18:05    Musselburgh    Jardine, I    Fell, Roger
Jabbaar    18:35    Musselburgh    Jardine, I    Barron, T D

Dream Of Summer     17:50    Kempton    Noseda, J    Balding, A M
Aragon Knight    20:50    Kempton    Steele, Daniel    Main, Mrs H S
Treble Strike     14:15    Newcastle    Griffiths, D C    Ivory, D K
Dream Revival    17:10    Newcastle    Collins, Paul    Unett, J W
Report RozelKid September 8, 2017 5:43 AM BST
Racing looks tough today - so im just going to box up all of these in ew combos - all ridden by Ben Robinson and trained by Brian Ellison


17:40 Seebring (IRE) 20/1   
16:35 Steel Helmet (IRE) 10/1   
16:00 Carthage (IRE) 12/1   
14:15 Angel In The Snow 15/2
Report PHS September 8, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Plata O Plomo    17:45    Thirsk    OMeara, D    Coyle, Tony

Triggywinkle    13:55    Stratford    Young, Mrs L J    Buckler, R H
Minstrel Royal    14:30    Stratford    Kirby, P A    Henderson, N J
Ourson    16:50    Stratford    York, P    Slevin, S
Report PHS September 8, 2017 4:52 PM BST

Sep 8, 2017 -- 5:43AM, RozelKid wrote:


Racing looks tough today - so im just going to box up all of these in ew combos - all ridden by Ben Robinson and trained by Brian Ellison17:40 Seebring (IRE) 20/1    16:35 Steel Helmet (IRE) 10/1    16:00 Carthage (IRE) 12/1    14:15 Angel In The Snow 15/2


You missed out the 20/1 Ellison winner! Beat mine backed at 9/1, 4/1 SP. Steak back though (went 1.44).

Report RozelKid September 8, 2017 5:28 PM BST
yeah seen that - Josephine Gordon is starting to get on my nerves - lol
Report PHS September 9, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Garter     13:55    York    Fahey, R A    Hills, Charles

Kiruna Peak     14:50    Fontwell    OBrien, Fergal    Channon, M R
Spiritofchartwell    15:25    Fontwell    York, P    York, R H
Report Pinza September 10, 2017 1:48 PM BST
A quiet day on here.
3.00: Lancelot Du Lac  top .  This is a Listed race and these rarely work out

BUT he has won over c&d and was entered in similar race at Nmkt recently and pulled out.

3.35:  2yo races always risky but AYUTTHAYA has the credentials

4.10: The qualifier is Graceful Lady

4.45: EQUILATERAL has a high score

5.20: Two qualifiers Dakota Gold  & Pennsilvania Dutch (6) .

I'll go with DAKOTA GOLD

A Canadian bet  today.
Report RozelKid September 10, 2017 3:28 PM BST
i think the philip york horses are being underestimated in the 3.25 and 4.00 at Fontwell 25/1 and 14s are too big imo

Spiritofchartwell and Kabanga Bay
Report PHS September 10, 2017 4:05 PM BST
Very well done RKCool
Report PHS September 10, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Delannoy    15:55    Brighton    Mulholland, N P    Houghton, Eve Johnson

Bohemian Rhapsody     16:15    Newton Abbot    Barr, Brian    Powell, B G
Burlington Bert     14:05    Perth    McGregor, Mrs J C    Greatrex, W J
Sierra Oscar     15:05    Perth    McGregor, Mrs J C    Skelton, Daniel
Report PHS September 10, 2017 4:29 PM BST
Half a million views I just noticed.
Report RozelKid September 10, 2017 4:45 PM BST
Im not sure whats going on with these betfair forums - I have been getting some problems with posting.

I've spent the last 3 days evaluating the Philip York's stable's 4 entries at Stratford and Fontwell.

Im not one for putting up horses a few minutes before the race starts - its pointless but i had to.

I posted a write up at approx 9pm last night before i went out- I put up 2 ew bets at 25/1 and 16/1 on both runners as Philip York and his late father Raymond York had history here at this Fontwell meeting.

My  write up on the Philip York stable was very detailed regarding today's 2 horses at Fontwell and the stables 2 losers yesterday that i both bet and lost on . I was a big follower of his late Father Raymond York on the Hunter chase circuit when racing at Folkstone , Fontwell,  .... when Philip was the stable Jockey.

I've been out all day today and got back  10 mins before the 3.25 race ,  seen that my post wasnt even in the forum - so just put up a short message , as i say i dont like doing this but it was in frustration. 

What really annoying is that i know the stable very well and put alot of effort in on my write up  - i've followed the family's horses for years since i was a kid.

Its pissed me off to be honest on the time i wasted last night -  it not the first time this has happened  - has it happened to anyone else?
Report RozelKid September 10, 2017 4:53 PM BST
Actually fcuk this - whats the point of spending time writing posts if its not guaranteed that it will be posted.

Examples-

My previous message for eg  - no problem in posting and it there within seconds

I wrote up several in the last few months that have not been up for hours , and now my one last night is the 2nd one that hasn't even been posted

wtf is going on Betfair ?
Report PHS September 10, 2017 5:22 PM BST
Agree it's become poor the last few months. I always click on HR after posting these days,to check that mine is the latest post in the list. Frankly, I'd say BF don't care about the forum and that's why it doesn't appear on the main menu. Sorry to hear of your understandable frustration RK.
Report PHS September 10, 2017 5:22 PM BST
And my posts comes up instantlyLaughCry.
Report PHS September 10, 2017 5:23 PM BST
post (not posts) I meant to type
Report REDROB September 10, 2017 6:51 PM BST
If your post's dont appear straight away guys, after posting switch to standard view, you will see post is there, then switch back to live view, and again you will see it's there. Works for me anyway.
Report RozelKid September 10, 2017 8:08 PM BST

Sep 10, 2017 -- 6:51PM, REDROB wrote:


If your post's dont appear straight away guys, after posting switch to standard view, you will see post is there, then switch back to live view, and again you will see it's there. Works for me anyway.


RB, i posted one last night that didn't even appear - ive just email Betfair with regards to the issue.

Report RozelKid September 11, 2017 5:29 PM BST
9.15 Newcastle : IMPERIAL LEGEND 17/2  BOG


2.15 Catterick : BAY STATION 11/1 BOG


5.15 Catterick: NORA BATT 17/2 BOG

write up later - if we are lucky Confused
Report go-all-in September 11, 2017 6:11 PM BST
I'v given in trying to post on here as 90% of the time it doesn't work. Fed up of clearing cookies, then having to mess around with two step auth, and even then it rarely works.

If anyone else is interested, why don't we just take this to another forum? (One that works preferably)
Report PHS September 11, 2017 7:13 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Mamdood     15:15    Catterick    Corbett, Mrs Susan    Hannon , Richard
Malcolm The Pug     15:15    Catterick    Brown, D H    Hannon , Richard
Railport Dolly    14:25    Leicester    Appleby, M    Hollinshead, Steph
Captain Navarre    15:55    Leicester    Fellowes, Charlie    Pearce, Mrs Lydia
Missguided     17:55    Leicester    Hales, A M    Fahey, Peter
               
American Ruby     18:15    Newcastle    Fell, Roger    Johnston, M
Nurse Nightingale    19:15    Newcastle    Bell, M L W    Palmer, Hugo
Amazing Grazing     20:45    Newcastle    OMeara, D    Ellison, B
               
Towering     15:05    Worcester    Dore, C R    Dunn, Mrs Alex
Tunnel Creek    16:35    Worcester    Murphy, Olly    Cooper, Thomas
Report PHS September 12, 2017 4:57 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
African Grey    14:40    Carlisle    Todhunter, M    Barron, T D
Thello    15:50    Doncaster    Goldie, J S    Hughes, Jo

Balgair    20:45    Kempton    Clover, Tom    Portman, J G

The Welsh Paddies     14:00    Uttoxeter    Williams, Christian    Morgan, Paul
Floral Fantasy     16:00    Uttoxeter    ONeill, Jonjo    Bolger, E
Just A Feeling    16:30    Uttoxeter    Skelton, Daniel    Webber, P R
Report RozelKid September 13, 2017 5:02 AM BST
Imperial Legend stays in my note book for one of these poor hcaps - the horse seemed to be riding the jockey rather than the other way round -  Rachel Richardson misread the race imo . Horse looked to be asleep in the stretch and still coming a close 4th.

3 for today - think these guesses  are interesting for a number of reasons - especially the one at Uttoxeter.



8.45 Kempton : ST PATRICKS DAY  16/1 ew BOG -

Think this Jenkins runner has a chance if breaking well and trying to make all -  Balgair at 7/1 also interests me a saver.


6.15 Kempton : MISTY BREEZE 28/1 ew BOG -

Trainer Paul D'Arcy has a pretty good record over the years with 2yo olds , had plenty big priced 2yo winners here at Kempton in his ghistory- Im going to speculate that the first time hcap ( bottom weight) and blinkers may see an improvement


3.00 Uttoxeter PRINCE KUP 40/1 ew BOG -

I imagine that its going to be testing there today - the runs in Ireland last year shows it has a liking for soft/heavy ground - step up in trip is also likely to suit imo . Only had a couple of runs for the trainer and she has an ok record around there- I could be well off here if she is just giving the Prince another run. Its just got so much in its favour imo off that low weight - if the horse performs to anything close to the 1-1/2 length 2nd at to the  Gordon Elliott trained Veinard at Clonmel in November last year ( currently rated 125 and both carrying level weights 11st8) then i think he could outrun those odds off 10st 9lbs.
Report RozelKid September 13, 2017 5:17 AM BST
If anyone is interested - George Duffield ( 70 years old ) is riding in that Clipper Logistics Leger Legends race at Doncaster today . Will be interesting to see how he gets on - and i dont mean how he gets on the horse's back !lol
Report PHS September 13, 2017 5:15 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Mesophere    15:25    Chepstow    Fry, Harry    Gosden, J H M
Big Sigh     16:30    Chepstow    Mohammed, Ismail    Wall, C F
Areen Faisal     15:35    Doncaster    OMeara, D    Fahey, R A
Kowaiyess     16:45    Epsom    Moubarak, Mohamed    Burrows, Owen

Riverside Bridge     16:10    Hexham    Ellison, B    Burke, W J
Cash Again     17:10    Hexham    Haslam, B M R    Nicholls, P F
Western Jo     19:10    Hexham    England, Sam    Brown, A D
Report Cork Langer September 14, 2017 1:27 AM BST
Taking a chance on one for the ex-maestro of plots Dai Burchell on home territory, Chepstow 16.30, Monar Lad 22/1, there is probably every chance it may go bigger once the market forms properly given the stables poor strike rate on the flat.

Has had the three runs on the flat, showing just a little better each time in slightly better class races, ran plenty of times over hurdles without setting the world alight, and the stable did have a winner over hurdles recently, so hopefully the stable form is ok, if not red hot.
Report REDROB September 14, 2017 9:35 AM BST
Viognier - 5.10 Hexham

Taking a chance that the softening ground brings about some improvement.LTO is down as ur but really it was a ran out. Prior to that at sthwell looked like she'd be beat a distance, but  stayed on better than anything else in the race, todays extra 4f can only help. Gets the 7lb mares and jockey allowance so gets a stone from most the field. The fav Cash Again looked above average in a newbury bumper 2 years ago, but hasnt shone over hurdles since. Todays ground could be key, hopefully Viognier takes to it as well as most of the Black Sams have. currently a 10 chance.
Report Cork Langer September 14, 2017 1:03 PM BST
Apologies to anyone that delayed on my advice that my pick might go bigger this morning, seems like someone else must feel it has a squeak as well, currently trading between 6 and 8 generally.
Report Cork Langer September 14, 2017 4:30 PM BST
Today not the day given it is now trading at 40+....!
Report PHS September 14, 2017 6:12 PM BST
Good 2nd at big odds Rob!
Report PHS September 14, 2017 6:12 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Ebqaa     16:30    Chester    Unett, J W    Tregoning, M P
Top Ville Ben     18:35    Salisbury    Kirby, P A    Henderson, N J
Dashing Poet    14:00    Sandown    Main, Mrs H S    Gask, J R
Ready     16:15    Sandown    Pattinson, Mark    Ellam, Clare
Report REDROB September 14, 2017 6:24 PM BST
Cheers PHS, 7/1 a place bf . Dont think it'll ever win, thought it would last time,backed from 16 to 7, jumped the first, then came to a false rail, horse went one way, jockey the other. Only gave todays winner a cursory glance, saw it ran once last year at 150/1 and disregarded it.
Report REDROB September 14, 2017 9:15 PM BST
B Fifty Two - 5.40 Chester.

Amateurs race, ridden by B Lynn. Pumpy brought this guy to out attention last year when he had ridden something like 4 winners from his first 5 rides, and duly obliged on pumps selection that day, finished the season 5 from 10 including this race. Not so hot this year, 1 from 10 so far.
18 months ago BFT was running off 100, started this season for new yard off 93, has had 10 unsuccessful runs, Tomorrow runs off 70, as it did LTO when it showed a little in finishing 3rd. Has ran at Chester 3 times before, winning 2 of them, albeit both in 2014. Formerly with Charlie Hills now with Marjorie Fife, who won this race last year with B Lynn up. Been confined mainly to sprints this year, up to 7f tomorrow, as was his last victory at Donny 2 years ago.
Well drawn, grounds ok, decent jock, could be worth a pop at 8ish if there's not a plethora of nr's.
Report PHS September 15, 2017 5:05 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Bondi Beach Boy    13:30    Chester    Brittain, Antony    Turner, J R
Brandy Station     14:05    Chester    Williamson, Mrs L    Coyle, Tony
Spun Gold    17:25    Lingfield    Fellowes, Charlie    Cumani, L M
Scarlet Thrush     17:25    Lingfield    McJannet, Luke    Botti, M
Palindrome     18:45    Musselburgh    Fife, Mrs Marjorie    Thompson, Ronald
Mercers Row    18:45    Musselburgh    Todhunter, M    Herrington,M
Report RozelKid September 16, 2017 12:53 AM BST
6.45 Newcastle: JACOB BLACK

Was hoping for a much bigger price so i dont think there is any value in the current 8/1 ...unless you can take BOG. Price could drift alarmingly though so im being cautious

This opening price of 8/1 tonight is in big contrast to the SP Prices of his last 6 runs where he has been 66/1,66/1,25/1,66/1,66/1,100/1 - so will be interesting to see what the price is in the morning.

So well hcapped that  the books could just not want to take any chances . Newcastle based Kenny Johnson pulled JB out of a race at Newcastle on the 8th Sept....... so 8 days on maybe they think this is an easier spot.

We'll see.
Report RozelKid September 16, 2017 12:55 AM BST
6.45 Musselburgh - not newcastle
Report RozelKid September 16, 2017 4:11 AM BST
Just noticed that Jacob Black opened up at 40/1 with BF Sportsbook/ PP early on when prices made available - quickly cut to 12s then 8s - so maybe connections got on.
Report RozelKid September 16, 2017 6:28 AM BST
5.45 Musselburgh: Vecheka at ew 28/1

I think this stablemate of Jacob Black  is interesting  based on its run over 6f In June at Newcastle. Sportsbook have shortened it to 20/1 from 33/1 and a few others have too ....but  still  28s in places 

This Vecheka has been chopping and changing stables and connections like musical chairs this year -  Was with Micky Hammond for majority of its winless racing career , then in February , whilst with same connections,  the horse moves to some P2P trainer called Larry McGrath and has three P2P runs over 3 miles ( 2 pulled ups and 1 fell when leading ) - then on the 24th April the horse leaves the P2P stable and is transferred to new connections and the Chris Grant stable - has just one  one run with Chris Grant and the new connections when coming 2nd at 33s when trying to make all over 6f at Newcastle and being headed close home by Dream Alley . Then the horse moves to new trainer and connections ( Kenny Johnson )  after just one run.

That run in June over 6f ties in with the market leaders here - so much so that i believe that if he reproduces that run over a sharp 5 furlongs then he could easily outrun those odds . Dream Alley was put up put up 10lbs after 2 quicks wins in June and is on a mark of 65 - Hadley who came 3rd  has had 6 runs since and only coming out the money once being 3rd in a 7 runner race (232312)- Hadley's most recent run was splitting See Vermont and Red Forever on the 31st August and Red Forever was getting a stone from Hadley and still could get past him. Dream Alley and Vecheka comfortable drew away from Hadley that day - and if that race had been run over 5f then Vecheka would have beaten Alley imo.

Vecheka next 3 runs have seen him drop 4lbs to a mark of 50 - so it makes me believe his mark is very exploitable over this 5f

There are a few in there which have dropped considerably in the weights like Dawoodi ( ex hugo palmer), Salvatore Fury, and Twentysvthlancers - and i'd be concerned if they were on a going day - but i do like to speculate and i just think this Vecheka has some scope to run to a mark of approx 65 over this trip.

EW double possibly for the stable Wink - it won't be the first time Johnsons have attempted to land touches like this - my database has recorded at least 3  big priced  ew doubles  that they landed at Musselburgh or Newcastle since 2005...mainly when when the horses were trained by Robert Johnson - i think he may be Kenny Johnson's Father or whatever.
Report PHS September 16, 2017 4:31 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Mags Well     14:15    Bath    Deacon, Geoffrey    Linehan, Edmond Daniel
Cooperess    15:30    Ffos Las    Burchell, D    Oshea, J G M
Paradise Cove    16:30    Ffos Las    Fellowes, Charlie    Haggas, W J
Report PHS September 17, 2017 5:57 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Touch Of Color    15:10    Brighton    Fahey, R A    Chapple-Hyam, Jane
Trust The Man     16:15    Brighton    West, Adam    Dow, S
False Id    16:45    Brighton    Steele, Daniel    Fife, Mrs Marjorie
Stringybark Creek    17:15    Brighton    Steele, Daniel    Channon, M R
Red Star Dancer     14:50    Carlisle    Barron, T D    Perratt, Miss L A
Divine Intuition     15:20    Carlisle    Ryan, K A    Hannon , Richard
Topamichi    17:25    Carlisle    Appleby, M    Tompkins, M H
Page Of Wands    17:25    Carlisle    Bewley, G T    McLintock, Karen

Ask The Diviner     17:05    Worcester    Vaughan, Tim    OBrien, David M
Report PHS September 18, 2017 7:09 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Myhorsewithnoname     15:50    Chepstow    Hoad, M R    Lloyd-Beavis, Miss N
Madrinho     14:55    Redcar    Bycroft, N    Coyle, Tony
Kylla    16:00    Redcar    Brown, A D    Harris, S A
Harveys Hope    16:30    Redcar    Collins, Paul    Reveley, K G
Tadaany     17:05    Redcar    Carr, Mrs R A    OMeara, D
Connemera Queen    17:05    Redcar    Butler, John    Grant, C
Zizum    14:00    Yarmouth    Scott, George    Marnane, David
Seaborn     15:40    Yarmouth    Vaughan, Tim    Hodgson, Simon
Dream Bounty    16:45    Yarmouth    Appleby, M    Hollinshead, Steph

Rasmee    17:40    Newcastle    Charlton, R    Botti, M
Report REDROB September 19, 2017 2:33 PM BST
Be Perfect 5-40 Newcastle .

Maybe clutchuing at straws again with this old falla, but it paid off last time.
Since that last win he's ran 4 dire races. But ...that could be a plus, his recent history would suggest he wins, then runs 4 poor races then wins again, this has been the case for his last 25 races, except for once when there were back to back wins. 3 of his last 4 were on unsuitably soft/heavy ground. Has won on todays surface, will again be a massive price, 50 plus I'm guessing. 2nd time out this season he led and went odds on ir here when fading to finish 4th.
Not backed it yet, waiting for the inevitable drift.
Report PHS September 19, 2017 4:34 PM BST
Name    Time    Cse    To    From
Rebel Flame    17:05    Beverley    Weymes, J R    Moss, Garry
Lucky Ellen     17:05    Beverley    Candlish, Jennie    Budds, David Kenneth
Jackman    17:35    Beverley    James, L R    Carroll, A W
Larchmont Lad     15:05    Sandown    OMeara, D    Hannon , Richard
Time Constraints     17:55    Yarmouth    Carson, Anthony    Halford, M

Arizona Bound     16:30    Kelso    Goldie, J S    Elliott, Gordon
Nendrum     17:30    Kelso    Thomson, A M    Crawford, S R B
Zamarkhan     19:00    Kelso    Normile, Mrs L B    Lacey, T
Report RozelKid September 20, 2017 4:28 AM BST
3.25 Beverley : TAPIS LIBRE 16/1 EW

Its the form of  his wins this year that are taking my eye.

EPSOM- July winning off a mark of 80. That win over Whinging Willie makes me believe that Tapis's hcap mark is potentially closer to 85/90 rather than his current rating of 79 . Both Tapis and Willie finished 10 lengths clear of the 3rd that day. In Whinging Willie's next race he came 2nd at Kempton to Arab Moon when running on and giving  Arab Moon weight - Arab Moon was then subsequently raised 10lb and then close 2nd to a Becket horse called Western Moon over 10f - western is running of a mark of 87 which is bound to rise.

Tapis's  previous win was when he beat Azari and Mukhayyam at York in June when running off a mark of 76 - Azari now running off 96 and Mukhayyam 93 after winning several races between them. Tapis was receiving lots of weight from Azari that but not so much from Mukhayyam.


I just cant help but take the view that If Tapis runs anything close to his wins this year then he has the scope to be alot better than his current mark - he last 3 runs have excuses imo . I cant see vast amounts of improvement from the rest of them apart from the fav Bolder Bob. I think Bolder is more unexposed ... and the form of his win last time could be anything i suppose - i couldn't have that Medalla De Oro though.

The Price is right , and the potential is there for Tapis Libre to be ahead of all of these in ability over 1m4f. Jockey Harrison Shaw is taking off that 7lbs too .
Report BARNEY21. September 20, 2017 10:38 AM BST
only neg I can find Rozel is the price?? as it has as you pointed out the form in the book,if it gives it,s running then it has a good shout?
Report RozelKid September 20, 2017 3:31 PM BST
well - whilst Tapis Libre runs closer to a mark of 90 in June and July - he today runs closer to a mark of 60 . Cry
Report RozelKid September 21, 2017 12:45 PM BST
7.15 Chelmsford : CHELSEA CORSAGE 33/1 EW

I have to take a chance on this one as the price is so big - lightly raced ( onlly 4 runs as a 2yo) and first run as a 3yo today - not seen a track for almost a year also her first run for Paul D'Arcy as Chelsea seems to have changed stables only within the last week or so from Irish trainer A Oliver.

Form of her 2nd at Dundalk last year gives her some potential in this 0-80 hcap - Chelsea ran 2 lengths 2nd (running on ).... to a horse called Glastonbury Song who has come out this year as a 3yo and beat an Aiden O'Brien horse called Asking off a Irish mark of 95.

Chelsea was allotted an official rating of 76 before her last run as a 2yo in when running of level weights when coming 6th in a listed Fillies stakes race  ...the 1st, 2nd and 5th are running to 90+ marks - the 5th came 2nd in a group 3 in June - there was only 6 lengths between 1st-6th

That mark of 76  could be quite lenient and she could be potentially thrown in here off this type of mark in a hcap - again its her first run for a year and if she is fit then there is enough potential to speculate with imo.

D'Arcy won the Portland at the weekend so i hope the winning form continues - i will definitely be keeping her in the notebook and have opened a book on her - if she is just out for a run today then so be it.
Report RozelKid September 21, 2017 1:14 PM BST
also- just want to add that the connections of Chelsea , Anna Doyle , is the wife of this lot http://www.doyleracing.com/history/#.WcOqebJ96iQ.

They clearly know the time of day with buying horses with class -  they have also produced or purchased hundreds of other group winners.  Anna Doyle is the wife i believe.
Report RozelKid September 21, 2017 1:17 PM BST
Barney Roy, Canford Cliffs, Olympic Glory, Limato, Dick Turpin, Rostropovich, Collier Hill - just some of the horses the connections have purchased or produced
Report RozelKid September 21, 2017 7:03 PM BST

Sep 5, 2017 -- 11:33PM, RozelKid wrote:


5.25 Kempton: NEVER FOLDING 12/1 EW BOG Trainer has shown a bit of form recently - Interesting to see that they have dropped NF back to 7F - NF came 2nd in a Lingfield 6 runner maiden over 7f in February and the form of that maiden looks pretty good. Trainer is in much better form now too.   Lingfield race - http://www.skysports.com/racing/results/full-result/763290/lingfield-park/28... came 2nd when splitting the places of a couple of colts who are well above this rating - at least 30lb in my book. The winner "Traveller" looks a solid 70/80 rated animal by the looks on his next run.The 3rd that day "Island Brave "  came out on its next run , when an unfancied 14/1 shot,  and easily beat the David Simcock trained "Bless Him  a 4/9f who was making his debut " -  Bless Him now rated in the 90s won the Royal Ascot Britannia Stakes Hcap beating a 95 rated horse. NF must surely must have a decent chance in this if running anything close to that 7f race in February - she is only running of a mark of 55 and i just think there is is more potential with her than alot of these in this race


runs tonight in the 8.15 Chelmsford - didn't take part lto - burst through stalls

only 8/1 tonight - will have an interest EW - BOG

Report RozelKid September 21, 2017 7:16 PM BST
6.15 Newcastle : Rock Island Line 10/1 ew BOG


possibly always needed this trip - worth a pop imo. Slight drop in class too.
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