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impossible123
02 Sep 18 16:50
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 8,285 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
I think Harry Angel, if none-the-worse from his experience in the Diamond Jubilee at Ascot, ought to walk away with this race; the 5/2 has long gone and presently 7/4 best. He also won this last year beating Tasleet 4l.
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Report unclepuncle September 2, 2018 5:07 PM BST
Hard to oppose him given he loves Haydock - two runs, two 4 lengths wins.
As with Battash at York you just need to ignore his form at Ascot (decent though some of it is).

Basically it's 7/4 that he goes in and out of the stalls OK.
Report twonky September 4, 2018 4:21 PM BST
It's not the best sprint cup ever, but would you still take short odds on a horse in a group 1 that has not run for 11 weeks?
Report impossible123 September 4, 2018 4:56 PM BST
HA has won 1st time out twice; won at Haydock unlike Ascot; rated about 8lbs superior to the rest; the ground will suit too, and that cannot be said for some of his opponents eg The Tin Man, Brando, etc.

I think at odds eg 6/4 against these lot is a risk worth taking assuming ,his trainer's confidence in him is genuine; the scratching of Blue Point similar ownership to HA is a plus too.
Report twonky September 5, 2018 7:40 PM BST
This was something I looked into years ago regarding group 1 races and the overwhelming fact was that it is difficult for a horse to win a group 1 after Royal Ascot without a prep. The cut off point was about 6/7/8 weeks. Obviously it has been done, alborada, lammtarra and workforce spring to mind, but it is very difficult....do you still fancy the stoute horse at Kempton this Saturday?
Report twonky September 5, 2018 7:40 PM BST
This was something I looked into years ago regarding group 1 races and the overwhelming fact was that it is difficult for a horse to win a group 1 after Royal Ascot without a prep. The cut off point was about 6/7/8 weeks. Obviously it has been done, alborada, lammtarra and workforce spring to mind, but it is very difficult....do you still fancy the stoute horse at Kempton this Saturday?
Report impossible123 September 5, 2018 11:03 PM BST
Yep, at 2/1 if he runs; only 5/4 with 'ok koral' but no jockey assigned yet.
Report impossible123 September 6, 2018 12:43 PM BST
12 have been declared including Gustav Klimt on a similar path taken by US Army Flag in The July Cup ie from 8f to 6f - the latter won that race!

But Harry Angel is a different proposition, if fully fit and sound.
Report twonky September 6, 2018 4:13 PM BST
Gustaf Klimt 25/1 ew

Looks to be the value in the race and definitely won't be this price on the day.

Interesting comparison with US Army Flag and the July cup, but 3 things I particularly like

1/ the form of the o brien horses is a lot better than last month
2/ Ryan Moore is not going to ride the stoute horse at Kempton, thus not racing at both courses like dettori
3/ o brien had about 4/5 horses in at the 5 day stage, but elects to run just the one. This was always a promising sign from the yard in years past and not going mob handed in the race.

James Garfield would be my most likeliest winner, but the drift in the market is concerning, whilst Sir Dancealot has failed every time in group company over 6f.
Report dunlaying September 6, 2018 5:41 PM BST
If there is any rain to speak of Donjuan Triomphant could run well .
Report unclepuncle September 7, 2018 11:39 AM BST
Looks like it will be a wet murky day on Saturday so I have had a decent bet on my old friend Eqtidaar @ 20/1.
Has won and run well on good to soft and his full brother Massaat won the Hungerford on soft ground.
He did win the Commonwealth on fast ground at Ascot but he hung badly late on which might have been due to the ground.
Report twonky September 7, 2018 2:15 PM BST
Will be soft tomorrow, we've had a miserable morning over here.
Report unclepuncle September 7, 2018 2:17 PM BST
Official going today is soft heavy in places and the opener has just been won by a 100/1 shot who made up all the stands rail (highish draw favoured).
Loads more rain forecast tomorrow so it could be a bog. Marvellous.Cry
Report Andrew in Sweden September 7, 2018 3:57 PM BST
Harry Angel is obviously the form horse with 7 lbs minimum in hand, we all know that, it's why he's 5/4. In fact, if the previous stall issues hadn't occured and he had won, you wouldn't be able to get 1/2 tomorrow.

But is he a good bet at 5/4 ?

He's won on heavy in the past, but is poorly drawn in 3 and although the going is not an issue he was drawn 8 last year.

How will his mental state be approaching the stall ? Of course Clive will have worked on this, but it's a completely different environment on race day.

He could be the best 5/4 bet of the year, but of the two returning superstars i think i would rather be on Enable.

I think Sands of Mali @ 20/1 is a viable EW option.
Report ReaseHeath September 7, 2018 4:07 PM BST
I doubt it's going to be quite as bad as last year when they moved the race from the sixth on the card to race 3 because the forecast was so bad...

And horses towards the top of the market still filled the first four places.

Having said that, I completely concur about Eqtidaar - he's available at 25/1 in a couple of places now so I've had to take that (each way Happy ).

It's as if his Commonwealth Cup win never happened (I accept the form of that race does n't look particularly strong in hindsight) - the last 2 winners of that race won this, the last 4 winners of this are 3yo and 6 x 3yo have won in the last 10 years. Crowley prefers him to Tasleet who is available at less than half his price (admittedly Hamdan retained jockey quite often picks the wrong one but Crowley was very keen on Eqtidaar before Royal Ascot).

It's entirely plausible that he did n't want to let himself down on the quick ground for a second time in the July Cup and he won the Commonwealth Cup despite the ground - his early form and his pedigree both suggest he'll relish a softer surface.

And his daddy won this race.
Report brigust1 September 7, 2018 4:15 PM BST
Hi Andrew, hope you are well and backing winners. I'm only over for the weekend and it would be nice to see Enable win but it's not really a betting race for me. I've backed Fox Power for his two defeats so I hope to get that back and win some in the first tomorrow. I know they like him a lot but has just not had the run of the races.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 7, 2018 4:45 PM BST
Hi Laurie,

Good to 'read' you, i've often wondered if you were still in UK or where you relocated on the continent, i still have the 2 BG fridge magnets as a reminder Wink

I would love to see Enable win tomorrow, and on form she would of course, more so as she's 7lb well in, but the injury and lengthy lay off negates most, if not all, of this. She won't be 100% fit of course and the Arc is the target, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if she won. JG can get them ready enough.

Good luck with Fox Power, his form was advertised by Cloak and Dagger in the first at Ascot today.

I'm in UK from Wednesday next week (5 days) and probably back on 29th for Newmarket.
Report brigust1 September 7, 2018 5:21 PM BST
I seem to be on the go all of the time as well. I haven't been able to follow the horses as closely this season so I have been ante posting for a bit of fun. I've 8s about Kew Gardens in the Leger and the same about Cracksman for the Irish Champion and the Arc. I think if Enable bolts up tomorrow there will be a temptation to run Cracksman in Ireland weather permitting. I've been backing him consistently for the Arc for quite a while now hoping the weather is wet. The race looks a bit of a shocker to me. I don't think the 3 year olds are up to much and he has the best form of the older horses however if Enable bolts up tomorrow it could be a good and a bad pointer we'll have to see. He came to himself more last year in the autumn on the slower ground. I can only see Enable giving him a race if that is the case and the ground is on the slow side. I had hoped to go to the Arc this year but since I retired I just don't get the time for anything much as far as racing is concerned. Timeform have Cracksman on 136 which is a complete nonsense ffs but there you go I guess it's just to back up their rating of his Dad. I think Harry's Angel should be a good thing tomorrow. I can't see them risking him unnecessarily either.
Report IrisDeBalme September 7, 2018 6:33 PM BST
I cant believe the price of Sir Dancealot... beat some decent horses this season.  May not have a great 6f record... but would give him a good chance for this.

Can't have Harry... too many question marks... gut tells me he needs the run....

Good luck
Report unclepuncle September 7, 2018 6:34 PM BST
Good to hear your thoughts Brig.
Report brigust1 September 7, 2018 6:43 PM BST
Hi Uncle. Hope you are well? I do miss this crac sometimes and often wonder what is going down. There is so much racing now day to day but the grandchildren have taken up a lot of my time, wonderfully. Now they are at school I've started writing again in my spare time so with following the horses too closely being quite draining, mentally, something ha to give. I can't give it up completely though. Laugh
Report brigust1 September 7, 2018 6:47 PM BST
One thing Uncle I went back to one of my old haunts recently at West Ilsley and Mick C treated us like kings. What a nice guy. Nothing was too much and we went up and down the gallops watching his horses exercise. Bought back a lot of fond memories.
Report brigust1 September 7, 2018 6:50 PM BST
Also I went to Eric Wheeler's retirement at Windsor. He was my first head lad and the nicest chap I ever met in racing.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 7, 2018 6:53 PM BST
Nice to see you posting again, but fun with grandchildren is a blessing, enjoy it Grin
Report brigust1 September 7, 2018 7:02 PM BST
Thanks Andrew. It certainly is. Any thoughts about Too Darn Hot and Ten Sovereigns? Saxon Warrior for the QE11?
Report Andrew in Sweden September 7, 2018 10:33 PM BST
Laurie,

I have a lay post thread under horse racing and last Saturday posted my thoughts about Ten Sovereigns, a horse i really rate and backed (albeit at 4/9). He's a bit special, has a good turn of foot and his time/sectionals for the last 2f were very good on debut. Looked equally as good in a group 3 LTO and runs in the Middle Park next (you will remember this race from 1970 Wink). He's the reason i may come over on 29th, i can't see a 2 year old to beat him over 6f but he may be priced accordingly.

I doubt he's a 2000 Guineas colt though, although there's stamina on the dam side (won over 10f). If he turns out as good as i think, he will be ideal for the commonwealth cup next year although AOB thinks he could get a mile (what does he know Wink). They could take in the Dewhurst to find out how good he is, but it would only leave a 2 week gap from the MP.

Two Darned Hot was impressive LTO (opposition is a ?) and he is a Guineas horse although i wouldn't be backing him at silly odds today. Champagne stakes next time out will be a better test. He's currently rated 4 lb higher than Ten Sovereigns, but on debut it was the other way around and 10 lb difference.

Saxon Warrior is an enigma and a little disappointing since the Epsom derby, but he has a couple of races to redeem himself, Irish Champion and QE II although if the Irish filly Alpha Centauri runs she will be difficult to beat.

Good luck.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2018 9:10 AM BST
Morning, Andrew. I have seen them both run and agree about TS potentially not winning the Guineas but I wouldn't be a layer. I did like the stride on TDH and the way he quickened when he finally changed his lead and I would favour him at this point. Mainly because TS may not stay.
Saxon Warrior has been running strangely but AOB's horses have generally this season with a possible bug. He has made a few mistakes with SW though, I reckon, especially running him in the Irish Derby, then the Eclipse and then at York. He has clearly looked a non-stayer in all his runs since the Guineas. I know the virus can make look it like the reason for him disappointing but they have pretty sophisticated science now to tell them. I think he is a miler and if they miss the Irish Champion and go straight for the QE11 he will do for me. 
I do remember the Middle Park in 1970 having been there. The 2nd and 3rd Mummy's Pet and Swing Easy had run seven and won six with Swing Easy beaten in France by My Swallow the top rated 2 year old so the pressure was on. He bolted up. The other two went on to win the Temple Kings Stand, Daniel Prenn, Sceptre, Nunthorpe and 2nd in the Abbeye the following year so they were certainly top sprinters rated 125 and 126 by Timeform. BG went on to win the 2000 and the King George so nothing can be written in stone yet about TS.
I am out today and away again tomorrow so have good one. PS I have a quiz for you. I will send it with a Christmas card later on, nearer the time. Take care.
Report Andrew in Sweden September 8, 2018 9:58 AM BST
Morning Laurie,

Many thanks.

I rate Ten Sovereigns highly, but if he gets close to BG's rating i will eat a drawer full of my socks Wink
Report dunlaying September 8, 2018 11:11 AM BST
I expect the race to be between the favourite and Donjuan Triomphant but I have been persuaded to have a small e/w on Hey Jonesy at 150/1 .
Too keen when beaten by U S Navy Flag he looks overpriced .
Report unclepuncle September 8, 2018 11:46 AM BST
unclepuncle 07 Sep 18 11:39
Has won and run well on good to soft and his full brother Massaat won the Hungerford on soft ground.


Correction - Massaat is only a half brother to Eqtidaar.
Report unclepuncle September 8, 2018 1:52 PM BST
Crowley has switched from Eqtidaar to Tasleet but despite that Michael Stoute seemed very upbeat, by his standards, about the former so have had some more on at 28/1 e/w.Crazy
Report ReaseHeath September 8, 2018 2:23 PM BST
I think I was probably hasty in declaring it would n't be as testing as last year given it's not stopped raining all day.
Report Figgis September 8, 2018 4:03 PM BST
I think we're all probably agreed that if Harry Angel is back he'll win. Where some of us disagree is if he's value or not. For me, with the questions about him beforehand I can't see how he offers any value at this kind of price. Arguably his chance has increased (or maybe some of the others' chances have decreased) with the terrible ground but even though the straight usually rides quicker than the round course it looks much softer than last year when he won.

I thought this year's Commonwealth Cup was a bad race and even though I'm reluctant to rule anything out in these conditions I can't fancy the Stoute runner. There is very little between the older runners Tasleet, The Tin Man and Brando and if any of them are on a going day they could win but they are not ones I want to back. Unless a bunch of the others run below their very best the ultra consistent Sir Dancealot looks to need to improve a bit again.

In my view James Garfield put up a peak performance last time by about 10lbs. There is speculation that he was favoured by a track bias. Personally I think that unlikely but it's possible. It's also possible that the blinkers effect worked but won't work this time. The ground is a total unknown for him. Despite these doubts about him he still looks a massive price for a horse that, for me, has the best most recent form so had to back him.
Report unclepuncle September 8, 2018 5:13 PM BST
Typical - had good money on The Tin Man at Ascot and Deauville.Cry  Oisin clearly made the difference.
Report unclepuncle September 8, 2018 7:13 PM BST
Wonder how low Harry Angel went in running just after half way as it looked like it might be a repeat of last year?
Report bobbyjo September 9, 2018 9:14 AM BST
Around 1.2 Uncle
Report FELTFAIR September 14, 2018 4:13 PM BST
Brigust you old sod where have you been? Went to see Frankel recently, magnificent specimen.I assume you have enjoyed Joseph O`Brien`s emergence as a fantastic trainer in addition to his outstanding jockeyship.GrinGrin
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