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sintonian
06 Jun 18 22:03
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 27,613 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Without Parole 3/1
Tip Two Win 6/1
US Navy Flad 6/1
Romanised 10/1
Gustav klimt 12/1
Wootton 12/1
Gabr 14/1
16/1 bar


Pretty sure Without Parole would have gone into everyone's notebook after his debut. The turn of foot he showed there was awesome, and combine that with his breeding and it's easy to see his potential. First time out this season, in his apparent prep for the Guineas, he won a minor novice event where he won easy but had to be pushed out. But his next run is puzzling in the sense it has led him to be 3/1 favourite for the SJP. That's just bonkers. He had to scramble up the Sandown straight to beat off some Listed class opposition when I was expecting something much more. He's looking like a bit of a staying miler to me and I think the 8f around the bend of Ascot will be too sharp for him. And he's yet to prove he's up to this level too.

Tip Two Win has ran in India this winter. India. If he wins fantastic story but i'd want 16/1 before backing him.

Gustav Klimt is just not good enough

US Navy Flag has G1 ability, probably, and the bend may be to his advantage rather than a straight mile. But he's still not very convincing.

For me, IF he comes over, Wootton would have as good a chance as any. He looked the dogs knuts before the nonsense French Guineas, when the jockeys were complaining about the safety of the track afterwards. He also raced so keenly, as if he'd drunk a gallon of Red Bull before the race. It's easily forgiven. At 12/1 he is worth the risk. If he runs he'll be closer to 5/1 in this  mickey mouse field.
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Report sintonian June 6, 2018 10:05 PM BST
Wootton missed the break in the Poule d'Essai and then bolted to the outside when the field got stacked up behind US Navy Flag, burning too much petrol mid-race.

"He has come out of the race really well and regained all the weight," said Godolphin's Lisa-Jane Graffard.

"Alex was very happy with his work Tuesday morning. We're looking at lots of races but the St James's Palace and the Jean Prat will certainly come into consideration."

Card and betting for the St James's Palace Stakes

In April's Prix de Fontainebleau, Wootton got the better of Poule d'Essai winner Olmedo - who is being aimed at the Qipco Prix du Jockey Club - and it is that yardstick which connections believe points the way forward.

"The Irish Guineas came a bit quickly and we've basically ruled out the Jockey Club because we're almost sure he is a miler," said Graffard.

"You just need to turn the page and move on. It wasn't a great race for a few people. The best horse on the day won and you can't take anything away from Olmedo, but we think they're very closely matched. We think Wootton would have been very close with a better trip."
Report sintonian June 6, 2018 10:06 PM BST
Just hope they run tbh. Ante-post rules etc
Report sintonian June 6, 2018 10:09 PM BST
8/1, NRNB with 365 is pretty decent.
Report Andrew in Sweden June 7, 2018 6:37 AM BST
Sintonian,

Without Parole certainly didn't look a SJP winner at Sandown LTO, but the going was good to soft, very sticky on top, and he's a summer ground horse. He would be fine racing on the M4.

I sense you will see a different horse at Ascot (weather permitting). I actually rate him, and mentioned him on posts before, although it's early days of course. Good luck with Wootton.
Report unclepuncle June 7, 2018 1:15 PM BST
Be worried about fast ground for him  -  expect they will stay at home for the Jean Prat if it stays hot and dry.
Report sintonian June 7, 2018 4:35 PM BST
Gosden did say he hated the ground last time.
Report Sankara June 7, 2018 6:57 PM BST
The famous Indian city of Doha...
Report sintonian June 8, 2018 3:03 PM BST
Qatar Crazy
Report Deptford June 8, 2018 6:15 PM BST
Romanised
Report dunlaying June 17, 2018 3:54 PM BST
Without Parole is too short a price for what he has done on the track . Wootton is value and Chilean could be the surprise package .
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 6:08 PM BST
Andrew in Sweden    07 Jun 18 06:37 

Without Parole certainly didn't look a SJP winner at Sandown LTO, but the going was good to soft, very sticky on top, and he's a summer ground horse. He would be fine racing on the M4.

I sense you will see a different horse at Ascot (weather permitting). I actually rate him, and mentioned him on posts before, although it's early days of course.


Wink
Report dunlaying June 19, 2018 8:51 PM BST
But you are still working for a living Andrew?
The more you post the more you are exposed .
Report Andrew in Sweden June 19, 2018 9:11 PM BST
dunlaying,

I'm a freelance consultant engineer, i will never give up my work Wink
Report lewisham ranger June 19, 2018 10:03 PM BST
Gosden showed his mastery by running this horse in a listed race at Sandown. It just gave him that crucial bit of experience.

A lesser trainer would have pulled him out on account of the ground, gone straight from Yarmouth to Ascot, and the horse would have got beat.

By the same token it was bold placing with the horse that won the coventry. Another more timid trainer would have put him away after he won at Newmarket, not run him ten days afterwards.

Horses are there to be run.
Report Figgis June 19, 2018 10:11 PM BST
Best horse won and all that but I'm not that impressed with the form and I have it as a below par winner. It'll be interesting to see if WP cab build on this Gp1 win but looking at the dire state of the older milers it'll still be easier for him than in most years.
Report Figgis June 19, 2018 10:11 PM BST
*can
Report Charlton2005 June 19, 2018 10:15 PM BST
umquestionably well below. One of the worst SJPs in 25 years
Report gpz6316 June 19, 2018 10:24 PM BST
a horse can blow his chance in the parade ring on such occasions . i,ve not the time to get into like the winter , but , enjoyed wathing my nags get beat on the recording . mabs cross the best of them .
Report lewisham ranger June 19, 2018 10:30 PM BST
I reckon a lot of races are quite straightforward if you just follow history. The way this horse ran today reminded me of the way his sire won the same race, ok I understand he's nothing like as good as his sire was, but just the way he got to the lead and was being hunted down at the end by a fast finishing Coolmore horse Gustav Kilmt/Zoffany.

Frankel had two winners at Ascot today and also has a couple of very interesting runners on Thursday with Wadalsifa and Sun Maiden.
Report blackbarn June 19, 2018 11:12 PM BST
Not much to add from me at this late hour.....

Dunlaying is an unfortunate idiot.

Lewisham Ranger (an old adversary) is proving an informed and erudite poster. I could be convertedWink
Report lewisham ranger June 19, 2018 11:22 PM BST
i see that weird stalker's back... Tongue Out
Report blackbarn June 20, 2018 12:11 AM BST
Lewisham - As many know, I post on here all the time and have for years. I will though, try not to post on anything you post on unless it really matters to me, so as not to upset you.  What was it this time?
Report sintonian June 20, 2018 6:37 AM BST
Wootton ran really well I thought given the draw and subsequent poor positioning he had as the race unfolded. He will be interesting back in France for their summer mile races.

Well done with WP. Like I said in opening post, he looked a serious tool on debut but his price was not fitting yesterday.

The 3yo milers this year look as poor as they have ever been.
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