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unclepuncle
14 May 18 12:22
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 5,525 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
With a beautiful week forecast the going is likely to be pretty fast which might not suit Addeybb,

Looking down the list I am drawn, as always, to my old favourite Limato.Love Has never won over a mile but ran well in this 2 years ago and romped home over 7f last back end.

Of those at bigger prices Zonderland for the in form Clive Cox might be worth a speculator.
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Report unclepuncle May 15, 2018 12:31 PM BST
Took some 33/1 e/w on Zonderland - probably be a non runner now.Laugh
Report IrisDeBalme May 17, 2018 10:17 PM BST
Had to rub my eyes twice to see Deaville 18/1

Think that is real value with Hills...
Report unclepuncle May 18, 2018 7:08 AM BST
Looks wide open, hence the 16 runners.
Rhododendron preferes a bit further, LimatoLove prefers a bit shorter and Addeybb seems to like soft ground.

Take those three out and literally anything could win or place hence my Zonderland speculator.
Having looked at the market just now I have also added Lightning Spear at 27 which was at least 10 points bigger than I expected - 2nd in this last year to Ribchester.
Report IrisDeBalme May 18, 2018 7:26 AM BST
I think Adeybb is interesting... he ran so well last 2 runs... but from handicap to Group 1 class in a matter of races... ?

Think he will drift.. but am so tempted to bet on him too - regardless of the ground...
Report lewisham ranger May 18, 2018 8:21 PM BST
not sure i buy into all this addeybb doesn't like quick ground stuff. 5-1 looks a big price to me. thought he'd be about 2-1 max to beat this lot.
Report IrisDeBalme May 19, 2018 10:29 AM BST
Despite the wide draw.. the fast ground... ADDEYBB is being backed... Im on at 13/2 .. will be interesting to see how classy this horse actually is...
Report Millerracing67 May 19, 2018 1:33 PM BST
Would love to see Limato win, but that extra furlong is an issue? & Candy's horses aren't exactly flying?
Thing 1 of the front 3 in the market will win, just enough doubts about them (ground or trip) to put me off betting.
Gd luck with your bets lads.
Report impossible123 May 19, 2018 2:39 PM BST
I think Limato is past it; Addeybb needs to improve; Rhododendron needs further. Lancaster Bomber deserves to win a Gp 1, and this is not a classic Lockinge.
Report Figgis May 19, 2018 2:43 PM BST
Looks the most difficult Lockinge to call in years. If there is one horse with the potential to show something special it is obviously Addeybb. I have him improving about 12lbs between the Lincoln and Sandown but I still think he'd need to progress about another 8lbs to be up to typical Lockinge winning class, albeit this year looks like it could be a substandard renewal. I certainly wouldn't rule out him making the step up but can't back him. Personally I've never seen Rhododendron as a filly with the class to beat the best colts over a mile. This could be one of the easiest chances she'll get to prove me wrong but couldn't have her. Limato is the one with proven Gp1 class but never shown it at this trip and won't be getting any better at the age of 6. Beat The Bank has potential but it's another big step up. A real head scratcher to find one likely to run up to Gp1 standard today and if it is substandard virtually anything is possible. No bet but hope Addeybb wins as he seems the one most likely to go on from here if up to winning today.
Report unclepuncle May 19, 2018 5:57 PM BST
Another Ballydoyle tactical masterclass - was last years 2,000 Guineas all over again.Cry
Report pipedreamer May 20, 2018 1:46 PM BST
Quotes about Adeybb before the race.

"He travelled well in the Lincoln".Well you can travel well in the Lincoln,but he went up to not a group two ,not a group three,but a group one !!!!!!!.And as it was going to be a burn up with o'brien setting it up for Rhodedendron,he would need ALL his speed earlto keep up with them.
As it worked out he had no speed left to mount a challenge.PACE,all the tv pundits i have heard on telly this year seem to know nothing about racing.Masar wasn't going to get an easy lead in the 2000 like he did in the Craven.they completely missed this poi.Some actually questioned whether Murrillo had a chance.As he was entered in the 5furlong Palace that day,he was obviously a PACEMAKER.
Put away your slide rules,LBS etc,and determine PACE in a race.Knight to Behold in the Derby will need to be a wonder horse to win after going toe to toe with the pacemakers of Obrien.Roaring Lion hangs left,he will do wonders on the Camber giving him all the opportunity to do so.
Young Rascal has been touted as a possible.If you fancy him,you must fancy Deeexbee,they BOTH came from the back together.
So they both have an equal chance,and as you are looking for something exceptional to win this race;What the chance that they are BOTH wonder horses!!???.
Another quote,"surprised that Saxon Warrior had so much speed in the Guineas".He had so much speed in the Racing Post,that he found so much speed that he could  sit handy ,when headed he fought back and won,[i saw Benny The Dip in The Royal Lodge and New Approach in the Dewhurst do this }.
As he was a massive 2 year old who is now still growing,and the race will be run to suit him.He is logically the choice.
All these points i have made have seem to have been missed by the  pundits on telly,either that or i must have missed them,apologies if i have.
Report impossible123 May 20, 2018 3:59 PM BST
Never back a horse on the say so of tv or media pundits - quickest way to the poor house.

Tbf to Maureen, trainer's wife, she did say the ground (g/f) and the Group 1 race status could be definitive as to where his level was. As for Limato to me he clearly did not stay - he was in a good position - and floundered with 1f out; his trainer seemed to think differently and blamed the pollen surrounding his training establishment.
Report ReaseHeath May 20, 2018 4:57 PM BST
In fairness Addeybb did at least win the Group 2 at Sandown (albeit a weakish one) as a stepping sound from the Lincoln to the Lockinge so he was well entitled to take his chance - unlike Zabeel Prince who was attempted to jump from a Listed race to a Group 1.

Beat The Bank was in a similar boat - won a weak Group 2 at Newmarket and was n't sighted in his subsequent Group 1 attempt at Ascot behind Persuasive(!)

The latter two only beat one home -  the AOB horse who was there for a day out but I'd still give Addeybb a chance of stepping up to Group 1 level - they might have to wait until Champions Day at Ascot and campaign him sparingly through the summer months whilst hoping for suitable ground (he'll have a Group 2 penalty now anyway). Or I suppose they could look at the race in Deauville where they quite often get softish ground in August.He's only run 8 times and won 5 of them.

Agree about the pundits though - the cynic in mean wonders whether they talk every horse up for the sole purpose of encouraging the casual viewer to place a bet.

The hype certainly does n't come from connections - the trainers of those three horses all strike me as realists.
Report ReaseHeath May 20, 2018 4:57 PM BST
^ stepping stone not stepping sound Happy
Report DECALEC May 23, 2018 1:13 AM BST
Pipedreamer good post,impossible read btn the lines and not what your about to preach
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