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The Headmaster
11 May 18 13:02
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 11,515 | Blogger: The Headmaster's blog
First entries.  Bit down on numbers maybe?

AJAYEB (IRE) F.PS. 3 A.
AL ADAID M.PS. 3 A.
ALHADAB M.PS. 3 A.
ALJEZEERA GB F.PS. 4 A.
ALOUNAK M.PS. 3 A.
AMEDEO MODIGLIANI IRE M.PS. 3 A.
BALANNJAR M.PS. 3 A.
BANDUA USA M.PS. 3 A.
BARKAA F.PS. 3 A.
BATEEL IRE F.PS. 6 A.
BEAT GENERATION GB M.PS. 3 A.
BENBATL GB M.PS. 4 A.
BEST SOLUTION IRE M.PS. 4 A.
CAPRI IRE M.PS. 4 A.
CASCADIAN GB M.PS. 3 A.
CASTELLAR F.PS. 3 A.
CLIFFS OF MOHER IRE M.PS. 4 A.
CLINCHER JPN M.PS. 4 A.
CLOTH OF STARS IRE M.PS. 5 A.
CRACKSMAN GB M.PS. 4 A.
DEFOE IRE M.PS. 4 A.
DELANO ROOSEVELT IRE M.PS. 3 A.
DSCHINGIS SECRET GER M.PS. 5 A.
ELARQAM GB M.PS. 3 A.
EMPERATOR M.PS. 3 A.
ENABLE GB F.PS. 4 A.
FINCHE GB M.PS. 4 A.
FLAG OF HONOUR IRE M.PS. 3 A.
GENDARME USA M.PS. 3 A.
GHAIYYATH IRE M.PS. 3 A.
HAGGLE GB F.PS. 5 A.
HAPPILY IRE F.PS. 3 A.
HAWKBILL USA M.PS. 5 A.
HISHIKARI USA M.PS. 3 A.
HOMERIQUE USA F.PS. 3 A.
HUNTING HORN IRE M.PS. 3 A.
HUSH WRITER JPN M.PS. 3 A.
HYDRANGEA IRE F.PS. 4 A.
ICE BREEZE GB M.PS. 4 A.
IDAHO IRE M.PS. 5 A.
ISPOLINI GB M.PS. 3 A.
KENYA IRE M.PS. 3 A.
KEW GARDENS IRE M.PS. 3 A.
KISEKI JPN M.PS. 4 A.
KITESURF GB F.PS. 4 A.
LADY ATHENA F.PS. 3 A.
LAH TI DAR GB F.PS. 3 A.
LAURENS F.PS. 3 A.
LOUIS D'OR (IRE) M.PS. 3 A.
LUCKY LILAC JPN F.PS. 3 A.
LUMINATE IRE F.PS. 3 A.
MAGICAL IRE F.PS. 3 A.
MALKOBOY M.PS. 4 A.
MASAR IRE M.PS. 3 A.
MATCHWINNER GER M.PS. 7 A.
MIND MAPPING USA M.PS. 3 A.
MOVE UP GB M.PS. 5 A.
MUSIS AMICA IRE F.PS. 3 A.
NATURALLY HIGH M.PS. 3 A.
NEAR GOLD GB M.PS. 3 A.
NELSON IRE M.PS. 3 A.
NEUFBOSC M.PS. 3 A.
OLD PERSIAN GB M.PS. 3 A.
OLMEDO M.PS. 3 A.
ORDER OF ST GEORGE IRE M.PS. 6 A.
PATASCOY M.PS. 3 A.
PHARRELL M.PS. 3 A.
POLLARA IRE F.PS. 3 A.
RABDAN (GB) M.PS. 3 A.
RAYMOND TUSK IRE M.PS. 3 A.
RED VERDON USA M.PS. 5 A.
ROARING LION USA M.PS. 3 A.
ROSTROPOVICH IRE M.PS. 3 A.
SALOUEN IRE M.PS. 4 A.
SATONO WALKURE JPN F.PS. 3 A.
SAXON WARRIOR JPN M.PS. 3 A.
SEPTEMBER IRE F.PS. 3 A.
SEVENNA STAR IRE M.PS. 3 A.
SHAHNAZA F.PS. 3 A.
SOLESILI (GB) M.PS. 3 A.
SOUSTRACTION (IRE) F.PS. 3 A.
STRADIVARIUS IRE M.PS. 4 A.
STUDY OF MAN IRE M.PS. 3 A.
TALISMANIC GB M.PS. 5 A.
THE PENTAGON IRE M.PS. 3 A.
THUNDER SNOW IRE M.PS. 4 A.
TIBERIAN M.PS. 6 A.
WALDGEIST GB M.PS. 4 A.
WAY TO PARIS GB M.PS. 5 A.
WILD ILLUSION GB F.PS. 3 A.
WINDSTOSS GER M.PS. 4 A.
WITH YOU GB F.PS. 3 A.
WOOTTON M.PS. 3 A.
ZARKAMIYA F.PS. 3 A.
ZUCCHINI GB M.PS. 3 A.
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Report blackbarn October 5, 2018 10:43 PM BST
I think you two should concentrate less on trying to be right, and more on what you are both quite good at.
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 10:49 PM BST
Blackbarn, I've no problem with anyone thinking Enable is an odds on chance. They might see what I can't and I admire a punter willing to nail their colours well and truly to the mast. I thought Battaash was a 1/3 chance the other month and he got stuffed. It just seems all we're getting is a shout for a horse with a 6/4 perceived chance of winning that's available at 6/5.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 5, 2018 10:52 PM BST
OK ive already stated her chance of winning is not reliant on betting odds so let me put it another way ....

Positives

Best overall form of all runners
Top rated with several lb in hand after Cracksman and Crystal Ocean were withdrawn
Winner of 8 from 9 races all on different tracks proving her versatility
Winner of 5 group 1's
Never had a hard race
Can race from the front or off the pace
Good turn of foot
Acts on good, soft and firm
Has a good draw
Not a particularly strong field
One of the best middle distance fillies of recent years
Good constituion and comportment
Travel to France not an issue

Negative

Will lack of racing impact her in any way ? We don't know until after the race

Taking all the positives into consideration, it's the latter that makes it her race to lose.

You seem to be trying to make a case for her losing and that's fine, it's all about opinions anyway, but if i felt the same i would have snapped up all the 2.16 and 2.18 that was up earlier to lay.

I'm off to France on an early morning flight so won't be able to read any posts until Monday afternoon.

Good luck whatever you decide to play.
Report Figgis October 5, 2018 11:01 PM BST
You seem to be trying to make a case for her losing and that's fine

It's all about the odds. I'm just stating that I think her true chance of winning is around 2/1 so for me she's not a bet at current odds. She's the rightful favourite. There is no other horse in the race that I'd put above her in the market. That doesn't matter, as I believe even though she has the best chance on all known form she doesn't have a better than 2/1 chance, I may be wrong. However I would expect anyone putting her up as a betting proposition to think she has a better chance than her price.
Report Meat Loaf October 6, 2018 8:31 AM BST
Enable starting to drift
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 10:29 AM BST
The ground at PARIS-LONGCHAMP is currently GOOD (3.2) (6th October, 18)
Report A_T October 6, 2018 11:10 AM BST
It all seems to hinge on whether Enable is close to her top form or not - which is a bit of a guess but her last run could be argued gives her the best 12f form we've seen this season. If she is then the rest are racing for second. A gamble on this race is basically just taking a position on this issue.
Report harry callaghan October 6, 2018 11:14 AM BST
looking at the forecast looks like quite of bit of rain coming which changes things, we will see
Report Meat Loaf October 6, 2018 11:21 AM BST
Could be genuine soft by racetime....anybody for Cracksman.....oh.

Capri outstays them all?
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 11:38 AM BST
A_T, I agree. Fair enough if some of her backers have been able to deduce that the Kempton form is better than I think. Or maybe some even know she's been showing more at the yard. A lot of the arguments, however, seem to be just taking it on trust or more out of fandom. Wouldn't you say there are better bets at the price? Personally I'd rather take Gosden's in the Cumberland Lodge. Now there's an odds on chance that's available at odds against Wink
Report The Headmaster October 6, 2018 12:52 PM BST
This forecast has changed significantly.  Quite a bit of rain around now from midnight.  Will help those drawn wider, as long as they don't mind getting their toe in.
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 12:57 PM BST
This forecast has changed significantly.  Quite a bit of rain around now from midnight

This was always a possibility. Which makes Gosden's excuse for the withdrawal of Cracksman one for the BS detector.
Report impossible123 October 6, 2018 1:39 PM BST
Persistent support for Waldgeist. A bit rain (about 8mm) expected between now and race day.
Report Millerracing67 October 6, 2018 1:49 PM BST
Yes, forecast looks like a fair bit of rain to fall later 2nite, into early hrs Sun morn!!!! That's suits the fav :-)
Report Millerracing67 October 6, 2018 1:53 PM BST
Cloth of Stars interests me in the 4pls market. Needs to find his run from last yr, his trial showed some kind of promise. Think a gd pace & some ease in the ground suits him best. Around the 4.8 mark atm.
Report unclepuncle October 6, 2018 2:15 PM BST
A morning of steady drizzle / light rain has changed the Ascot going to ‘horrendous’ judging by Muthmir’s run - normally a horse you can set your watch by but he was tailed off with 2f to run, and the front two were soft/heavy ground winners last time.
If the same happens at Longchamp it could be carnage.
Report kincsem October 6, 2018 2:21 PM BST
I expect the ground on Arc day to be on the fast side of good.

Low draws are favoured on fast ground
€87 at 114.6 Clincher (and will probably add to it) - draw 1
€13 at 80 Patascoy - draw 2
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 2:29 PM BST
Yes, uncle, hadn't checked the weather before I put up First Eleven. Terrible call from me Sad
Report unclepuncle October 6, 2018 2:38 PM BST
I though Blakeney Point was the bet in that race given the going but he ran as badly as Muthmir -  must be the jinx of my money.Cry
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 2:48 PM BST
Race time was more than 12 secs outside RP standard. Just shows how the rain can get into the ground so quickly at this time of year.
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 3:00 PM BST
As is usually the case it's difficult to get a handle on the Longchamp ground after the first two races. One a long distance affair on the 'Moyenne' course and the other a slow run fillies handicap. Hopefully the Prix Dollar will give a better line but I'd guess at good at the moment, in spite of the good to soft description.
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 3:49 PM BST
Ground kicking up a fair bit but that was a decent time for the Prix Dollar. Suggests fast side of good at the moment but that could easily change as the ground cuts up some more or they get a bit more rain.
Report harry callaghan October 6, 2018 4:14 PM BST
looks pretty decent ground to me
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 4:17 PM BST
The last race suggests that the ground is already cutting up and definitely not the fast side of good anymore. Just slightly the slow side of good now.
Report gpz6316 October 6, 2018 4:38 PM BST
rain forecast from 10pm till 1 in the afternoon at longchamp it will ride soft
Report dunlaying October 6, 2018 5:06 PM BST
The last forecast I got was a possibility of rain from midnight onwards.
Report A_T October 6, 2018 5:19 PM BST
a lot of rain heading towards Paris now

looks like conditions will be very much those that would have favoured Cracksman

connections deserve  all they get the way they've messed around with this horse - will probably come up fast at Ascot too.
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 5:32 PM BST
A_T, do you think there could be something not quite right with Cracksman? If that's not the case then it can only be that Gosden is thinking of himself rather than the horse/horse's owner. If we were talking about an early season race it could make sense to hold back a bit. Or if the Arc had just been mentioned as one of many possible races to take in. On the contrary, right from the beginning of the year both owner and trainer had said they can't wait to get him to the Arc and running against Enable wouldn't be a dissuader. It seems absurd to wait so long yet not be prepared to wait just a little longer to see what rain we got (not that he needed it imo).
Report The Headmaster October 6, 2018 6:00 PM BST
Kincsem - if the forecast is correct it won't ride the fast side of good.
Report johnnyrant October 6, 2018 6:13 PM BST
Big rain on the way reinforcing what a crazy decision it was to withdraw Cracksman Cry
Report The Headmaster October 6, 2018 6:17 PM BST
Righty-ho, I should probably have these bets quietly, without telling a soul, then do some navel-gazing after the race...but here goes.

Nelson on ground worse than good:

2yo G3 Leopardstown - wins, beating Kew Gardens by 3l (levels)
Royal Lodge - neck 2nd to Roaring Lion (levels)
Ballysax - wins, beating Delano Roosevelt giving him 3lbs

Not bad at all. 

He's got a great drawn in 3 and will no doubt be sacrificed on the altar of his better-fancied stablemates by tearing off.  But if the forecast is correct and it's the ground he needs, he might hang on to the lead a bit longer than we would expect.  200/1 e/w might return a pound or two.
Report The Headmaster October 6, 2018 6:21 PM BST
Skybet first 5 places 200/1
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 6:26 PM BST
Headmaster, on his earlier form I have him only a couple of pounds behind Kew Gardens. Enable could disappoint, Kew Gardens might be knackered, Sea Of Class probably not good enough and Nelson would come right into it. It's just that his form plummeted drastically after the Ballysax, but horses can suddenly return to form with no hint beforehand.
Report gpz6316 October 6, 2018 6:34 PM BST
an arc for everyone , a shorty with great figures , loads of other contenders , changing ground , draw bias , a deluge overnight or not  ? i,m on cloth of stars and waldgeist . i fear neufbosc , i cant back three in the race . obviously enable is favourite and i wont be moaning if she wins . i think her odds exaggerate her chance ie no value .imo unfathomable . good luck
Report The Headmaster October 6, 2018 6:40 PM BST
He's run 3 times on ground worse than good and they're his top 3 RPRs, Fig.  All around his backend 2yo/early 3yo career so maybe that was Nelson at his peak, but if the rain comes and gets into the ground at 200/1 1st 5 I can't resist.. Crazy
Report A_T October 6, 2018 6:59 PM BST
Figgis, if there are problems with Cracksman why not just retire him now? There's something going on with Oppenheimer, Gosden and Dettori but I can't figure it out. The handling of the horse's program has been nothing short of bizarre - for a proven 12f horse of G1 quality to have missed the King George and Arc at both 3 and 4 is hard to understand. Surely you own a horse like Cracksman to run him the Arc especially when conditions look like being ideal.
Report A_T October 6, 2018 7:01 PM BST
To even think about Nelson winning just shows what a poor field it is. I can't remember a worse.
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 7:30 PM BST
The Headmaster 06 Oct 18 18:17 Joined: 14 Nov 01 | Topic/replies: 3,790 | Blogger: The Headmaster's blog
Righty-ho, I should probably have these bets quietly, without telling a soul, then do some navel-gazing after the race...but here goes.

Nelson on ground worse than good:

2yo G3 Leopardstown - wins, beating Kew Gardens by 3l (levels)
Royal Lodge - neck 2nd to Roaring Lion (levels)
Ballysax - wins, beating Delano Roosevelt giving him 3lbs

Not bad at all. 

He's got a great drawn in 3 and will no doubt be sacrificed on the altar of his better-fancied stablemates by tearing off.  But if the forecast is correct and it's the ground he needs, he might hang on to the lead a bit longer than we would expect.  200/1 e/w might return a pound or two.
Report Charlton2005 October 6, 2018 7:31 PM BST
sorry, meant to add

did this analysis before the leger thinking it may be softer than it was. tried to lay back at 30s but it never happened.

I will be following you in tomorrow HM

gl!
Report Meat Loaf October 6, 2018 7:36 PM BST
Capri.......look at the Irish Derby and Leger form on soft ground. O'Brien says he has him right.
Report Figgis October 6, 2018 7:50 PM BST
Figgis, if there are problems with Cracksman why not just retire him now?

Well you'd think so, but let's say he has lost a bit of sparkle at home, maybe they're hoping it returns before Ascot? Maybe they are going to retire him but want to keep his name in the spotlight and then say "only for the ground...". I don't know, makes no sense to me. At the moment I'm siding with the view Gosden is giving himself what he thinks is the best opportunity to win both races. But if that's the case then Oppenheimer must be an utter mug.
Report Meat Loaf October 6, 2018 7:54 PM BST
Isn't Roaring Lion being aimed at the Champion Stakes? As well as Crystal ocean - it may be a stronger race than the Arc!
Report Callisto-moon October 6, 2018 10:23 PM BST
the pacemakers not going to be in the top 5 at the end.
Report kincsem October 7, 2018 10:01 AM BST
1. Enable
2. Capri
3. Kew Gardens
4. Cloth Of Stars
5. Waldgeist
6. Clincher
7. Talismanic
8. Sea Of Class
9. Patascoy
10. Salouen
11. Defoe
12. Tiberian
13. Hunting Horn
14. Nelson
15. Study Of Man
16. Way To Paris
17. Magical
18. Neufbosc
19. Louis D'Or
Report kincsem October 7, 2018 10:40 AM BST
Enable is the obvious choice.

Doubts are:
only one run in 2018
that run on all weather
that run receiving 8 pounds
she had previous experience of an all weather race, the runner-up did not.
Enable's 2017 Arc win was on soft, different ground today.
Past year's Arc win from the perfect draw, stall 2.
Last year's Arc was her seventh race of 2017 so fitness proven.  In 2018 it will be her 2nd race of the year.
(when Found won in 2016 it was her 8th race; Golden Horn in 2015 his 7th; Treve in 2014 her 4th; Treve in 2013 her 4th; Solemia in 2012 her 6th; Danedream in 2011 her 7th; Workforce in 2010 his 4th; Sea The Stars in 2009 his 6th; Zarkava in 2008 her 5th)
Report Can't Catch Me October 7, 2018 10:48 AM BST
Zoey Bird has tweeted:

Officially “Good” at Parislongchamp; no significant rain to speak of. Currently a misty, autumnal day for the Arc on @AtTheRaces
Report RozelKid October 7, 2018 11:58 AM BST
Its been raining over the course all night
Report metro john October 7, 2018 12:01 PM BST
At bigger prices, Salouen appeals, does know how to run a bad race and was exposed in front of Waldergeist for long enough.(place bet material) Good luck all, enjoy a great afternoons sport! Cool
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 12:20 PM BST
well always a difficult race to fathom and looking at the way the race may be run what we can decipher

much will depend how o'brien wishes to use his pawns in this race and how much he fancies capri his leger winner to rebound from his trail race, of which he did no running at all or how much the crew fancy him to rebound. it interests me because enable will benefit or not benefit from how he uses these horses. if they fancy kew gardens will they give the filly the easy lead she would like and scupper the chances of his other hope who is in gate 14

if we look at the low numbers and pace in the race, he o'brien has the sacrificial lamb in gate 3 nelson to use for capri (if capri is fancied) and will he use this pawn in which to give the filly the easy lead into the race she would like because if he doesn't and drops the lamb in, i cannot find pace from the low numbers, clincher races prominent but i wouldn't see him as a confirmed speed and salouen from gate 7 is also a prominent runner but not a confirmed speed, so if o'brien decides to not use the pawn in gate 3 she will be exposed imo and forced to use valuable energy in order to get a nice position, one thing is for certain imo she will not be coasting on an easy lead like she did at chantilly last year, if this scenario pans out

so in the scenario that there main hope is kew gardens who are his pawns out wide and who will be used to ensure a good pace for his leger winner. magical has raced on the speed in the past and is likely to be used to ensure pace, along with his other pawn out wide hunting horn, who is likely to sit close to her and take it up when her stamina gives way, this will ensure the pace for kew gardens who is likely to get a perfect stalking trip and give him his best chance of winning, others to benefit from this are waldgiest who likes to stalk and see of class a similar type,

in the event o'brien sends nelson i think he will scupper his main hope and give the filly and his other leger winner a lovely trip round, he may well send nelson but only to get the perfect formation up front with his wide runners likely to form the formation

maybe i think to much Laugh
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 12:23 PM BST
Ground and weather latest

Here's a description of conditions fresh from Longchamp


    The ground has been officially measured at 3.2/Good at ParisLongchamp this Sunday morning at 9.44am. There was very little rain over the west of Paris last night. At 11.15am, as
    light shower of rain fell at ParisLongchamp racecourse. Minimal rain showers are predicted through the day. The temperature is expected to be 14 degrees with a north wind. The ground
    should remain good.
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2018 12:24 PM BST
If that's right the forecast was quite badly wrong
Report The Headmaster October 7, 2018 12:24 PM BST
If that's right the forecast was quite badly wrong
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 12:31 PM BST
headmaster these forecasters are terrible, the way i read it last night they were getting 6-8mm and i did most of the forecasts i could find
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 1:04 PM BST
The ground was definitely just the slow side of good yesterday. Even without much further rain it's unlikely to dry out so quick at this time of year and the turf didn't appear it was going to drink up the rain. Can only guess at this stage but looks like it will be proper good ground, not fast ground as Cracksman's connections were saying, but not a mudbath either.
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 1:05 PM BST
* slow side of good after the first few races.
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 1:42 PM BST
not a bad time from the first race figgis do you not think? they looked a poor bunch on paper as well imo
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 1:46 PM BST
Difficult to say after that one race harry, all we can be sure of is it's not soft but the pictures tell us that anyway. I can rate the race substandard and still get a slow side of good going allowance but that's probably more because of the pace. I'd still guess at bang on good ground at the moment.
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 1:51 PM BST
yes totally agree, we will see after the next but these don't look a great bunch of juveniles either tbh
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 2:18 PM BST
As is often the case when we hear from jockeys, the rider of the winner thinks it's on the fast side, beaten jockeys think the slow side. Possibly the ground has slowed a touch with racing after the first but judging by the Lagardere I'd say slightly the slow side of good, exactly how it was halfway through yesterday's card. Should be no excuse for anything but mud lovers.
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 2:29 PM BST
like you say no excuses for any horses on this ground, have you any opinion on how you think the race will be run pace wise figgis?
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 2:38 PM BST
It's not really my area harry. When I try to predict what jockeys will do they often do the opposite, Grin
Report Howellsy October 7, 2018 2:53 PM BST
I've followed the thread with interest - amazing how you guys have made so much out of what has turned out to be so penurious a renewal. Whatever the precise value of her Kempton run, Enable is a worthy favourite but ruins the race as a vehicle for a confident bet as you just can't be sure how she'll handle a big field race after such a long time off and such a gallop-like prep. So for me the race is not worth having a proper bet in. I'm having a small interest on Sea of Class, the only genuinely progressive yet fairly lightly raced 3yo in the field. It'll be some feat from the draw but stranger things have happened.
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 2:55 PM BST
Howellsy, Enable too short or correct price, do you think?
Report FELTFAIR October 7, 2018 2:56 PM BST
Gosden has just told you what the pace will be.
Report Howellsy October 7, 2018 3:02 PM BST
I think 5-4 is a bit shorter than I want to take but after looking at the rivals and the draw I couldn't make her a 2-1 shot. Like you, I can't really understand why he isn't running Cracksman - there are only two reasons: either they're worried about him at home or they're confident Enable is better and likely to run up to her best.
Report Howellsy October 7, 2018 3:02 PM BST
I think 5-4 is a bit shorter than I want to take but after looking at the rivals and the draw I couldn't make her a 2-1 shot. Like you, I can't really understand why he isn't running Cracksman - there are only two reasons: either they're worried about him at home or they're confident Enable is better and likely to run up to her best.
Report Charlton2005 October 7, 2018 3:05 PM BST
laid sea of class e/w

backed nelson and talismanic e/w

gl all
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 3:07 PM BST
or they're confident Enable is better and likely to run up to her best

That possible, and if their judgement is good then she'd be too big as she'd hammer this field.
Report roadrunner46 October 7, 2018 3:11 PM BST
sea of class very good runCool
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 3:15 PM BST
wd winners another perfect trip but she did it. bit sick about sea of class but no complaints as i read her well and she is vindicated in regards being a very good filly
Report Figgis October 7, 2018 3:15 PM BST
Well done Enable backers. Well done Andrew for keeping firm despite my efforts to chip away Grin.

As to the race, Enable always travelled beautifully, but my first thoughts are the best filly on the day lost. SOC doing much better than I expected.
Report impossible123 October 7, 2018 3:16 PM BST
A  deserved victory for Enable considering she'd a temperature post Kempton and The Arc. But James Doyle must be ruing his chance, and the owner........
Report johnnyrant October 7, 2018 3:18 PM BST
Well done Enable backers; unlucky Sea Of Class backers.
Report unclepuncle October 7, 2018 3:18 PM BST
Happy with that. Happy

Sea Of Class should have won though.
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 3:26 PM BST
as i posted earlier in regards pace, i thought they would use the pawns out wide for kew gardens but they did not, which i find strange, anyway they used the lamb and set it up for the filly strange decision imo
Report metro john October 7, 2018 3:56 PM BST
A cracking race, not many hard luck stories, and Enable, well I think you could tell from Mr Gosdens comments just before the race that all was not well?

Hard to get over enthusiastic over the form of the past two years renewals, from a rating point of view I can rate the race and Enable no better than 126/127 on today's performance, and you would have to be optimistic she would come back next year? A Great filly, but I must note similar training problems to the great Treve.  Well done to all who kept the faith Cool

Blood pressure still not come downGrin
Report A_T October 7, 2018 4:13 PM BST
I think you could tell from Mr Gosdens comments just before the race that all was not well?

Really? Seems like a nice chap but always so cagey. He said she had a temperature after Kempton. Thanks for letting us know John!
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! October 7, 2018 4:15 PM BST
Betting said it all in the place market
I got 1.45

Wink
Report metro john October 7, 2018 4:18 PM BST
Looking forward to the Breeders, well I think John may have ruled out the possibility?, I think all things considered her performances this season warrant a go, she will run to her rating on any ground, and for me on any surface, just the two runs, so why not? Would love to see her on a sloppy American surface, she is so tough, but that is neither one thing or another. The probability is that she will not race again!
Report impossible123 October 7, 2018 4:26 PM BST
With a 3rd triumph as an ultimate accolade I think she might...being a filly, all being well; Sea Of Class is most likely, I'd think, after today's mighty but just unsuccessful effort.
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 5:26 PM BST
metro did gosden confirm she would go to the breeders cup turf can you tell me? seems strange with this race in mind for next year
Report Millerracing67 October 7, 2018 5:56 PM BST
Great to see Enable land her 2nd Arc win, even tho she was not at her very best?? Sea of Class has run a stormer, hope to see both back again next yr. A gd Arc from a punting front (Enable 6/1&5/1 ante post) & my faith in a big Arc run again from Cloth of Stars (4.8 pls, 4pls)  Although must say the heart was pounding close home with Enable!!!!!! :-)  She needed that winning post!!!
Report Graeme83 October 7, 2018 6:00 PM BST
Harry i think metro implied that gosden was more thinking of not taking enable to the bc. All i remember is the trainer saying the owner makes the decision. Howellsy, the Cracksman thing is odd, especially now they're saying enable had a temperature...85pcent fit etc. Great race. I prefer the arc to the derby etc.
Report Graeme83 October 7, 2018 6:02 PM BST
Miller i didn't expect the line to come that quick for the winner.
Report harry callaghan October 7, 2018 6:26 PM BST
ah i see graeme thanks
Report metro john October 7, 2018 7:47 PM BST
Never mentioned BC after the race, but did mention he would have liked more rain today, and that Enable was not 100% today, I found Johns comments and demeanour a little short of enthusiasm, but he looked full of a cold! Hope he gets better.
Report gpz6316 October 7, 2018 7:58 PM BST
for me having backed the evens favourite to get beat , waldgeist and cloth of stars its hard to say well done as i think you took way too shorter price than was her chance and got lucky
Report gpz6316 October 7, 2018 8:03 PM BST
ps im not crying in my  soup .
Report kincsem October 8, 2018 1:51 PM BST
The race time was a little slow considering the conditions, although, as usual, the Arc was the best against standard on the card.
It looked like Enable was trying up badly instead of Waldgeist, Cloth Of Stars and Sea Of Class sprinting home.
The top places were filled by the half dozen class horses in the field, the rest not up to much.
Report lordnoise October 8, 2018 10:26 PM BST
All the great things about flat racing in one race!!! Fascinating build up and a thrilling to the wire. (On a punting front thank God for Betfairs deep place markets Love) As a post script I'd be surprised to see Enable turn up at the BC - all horsemen warn against the effects of bottoming out a horse in a run after illness - and lets face it game old Enable was on her last legs at the line ...
Report jedi sophie October 9, 2018 10:57 AM BST
Back from Longchamp very late last night,another wonderful trip,superb weather 3 days out of 4.Lovely food and drink.
And an Arc for the ages,a spectacular horse race. Managed to have a real good lift on the winner and a really good pay out on Cloth of Stars who had been backing eway for months,50s 2 days before race was fantastic on reflection,I did post for the aftertiming brigade who creep round.Unlike ,many I felt Enable a worthy winner considering her prep. She quickened and travelled beautifully again,and if at peak i dont think Haggas filly gets there against her,too win with her prep was amazing. Dettori faultless.

Unfortunately as is now in the press there were several issues on track,firstly the price hike was far far too much,distinct lack of Parissiens likely due to this alone,feel sorry for those who have gone to this fabulous event for decades yet now priced out in one full swoop.Was always a good number there on the Saturday too.

The queues for PMU were astonishing,they've halved approx the number of Windows to bet,utter madness,and utterly ****g maddening.....

Similar for toilets,queues horrendous,food and drink which I thought was reasonably priced and ok again queues terrible as day wore on. I basically stopped drinking Sunday as could not drink and bet without chaos.

More staff directing people round than in customer service,pathetic and when you consider the ticket hike I'm surprised there has not been more in press,and in fact I was surprised there was not actually trouble at the track due to the above issues.

They must take note and resolve but I doubt they will,hospitality and hard euro,not the punter is what they've aimed at...

Did sour my weekend,not spoiled but made Sunday a tad stressful.

One last thing,many criticised Doyle unfairly,if watched the entire weekends racing there was some appalling race riding from some, Guyon and Moore on more than one,were truly wretched examples of top level jockeys, Moore imo not in top 10 in world now,hugely steep decline,never mind the best in world,laughable those that think so,go and watch his weekend efforts for proof,he was woeful. Guyon surely cannit ride for such powerful connections any longer,he too was extremely extremely poor,pro active riding is not in his thinking.

Atzeni and Boudot and Frankie were the opposite,terrific.Doyles Arc ride deserved praise not criticism.
Report Sandown October 9, 2018 11:55 AM BST
Enable given PR of 122 and TS of 114 for the Arc (£2.5m to winner, 19 runners)compared to 126 for Kempton (£40k to winner and 4 runners) and TS of 88. That makes no sense whatsoever and surely illustrates the flaws in collateral handicap rating methodology.

I will not return to Longchamp until they have introduced a PMU app so that bets can be placed online. Their technology is in the stone age.As is the service. My abiding memory OF THE 2018 Arc will not be of a great race but of QUEUES, QUEUES, QUEUES.
Report Sandown October 9, 2018 3:09 PM BST
If, like me, you assess performance using sectional times, then you must rate Sea of Class higher than Enable on the day. SoC made up 6 lengths in the last 400 metres whilst Enable ran an even pace through the race, benefiting from a much kinder trip. The draw determined the tactics employed although SoC would have been held up even with a lower draw. But, and here's the thing, the straight at Longchamp is only 500 metres and its quite possible that she would still have been beaten if she made the move at the same time IF FROM THE SAME POSITION. But, if she had been 2 or 3 lengths behind and not 6 lengths at the  400 metre pole then I'm pretty certain we would have been celebrating SoC as the winner. On her time I would rate her performance as 126 i,e +6 lb vs York not +1 as the RP suggests.
Report impossible123 October 9, 2018 3:17 PM BST
If Enable and Sea Of Class (SoC) were to clash in one of their preps for this race next season my money would be on the latter, all things being equal. I think SoC ran her heart out....
Report Andrew in Sweden October 9, 2018 4:48 PM BST
Hi Guys,

Back in my adopted homeland after 4 days in Paris (stayed an extra night).

I gave the Saturday card a miss (poor card) but Sunday was superb, specially the Arc and Abbeye.

With respect to the Arc, Enable is an exceptional, resolute filly, albeit many of us knew that before Sunday and in my humble opinion better than Treve and up there with Zakarva. To win as she did after only one AW warm up race since her previous Arc win, coping with lameness and an unexplained high temperature illness only weeks ago was nothing short of remarkable. After going 3L up in the last 200 metres it was only in the last 100 she began to tire (quite badly) giving 7lb to the younger and fitter runner-up who had a much better preparation.

Although i was ecstatic after the race, i give full credit to Sea Of Class who ran better than i expected (may have won with a better draw) and also to Cloth of Stars who was placed again. Sea of Class backers must have been pulling their hair out, athough it's the way she runs.

Enable has made history that is unlikely to be broken and next year maybe she can make it 3 Arcs. I know which one i will be on if Enable and Sea of Class meet (anywhere) next year.

A good day for me, 5 bets (excluding ante-post on Enable) with 2 winners including Mabs Cross who i highlighted on here (lay thread Friday).

The racing was superb as it often is, but the new grandstand (much smaller than the old one) is so gaudy, i didn't like it at all. Everything is coloured Gold to presumably represent luxury, but it fails miserably, instead it's a tacky, plastic look with 'patio' style timber decking everywhere. $145,000,000 down the Seine, someone has made millions !

The food and drink queues were the same as they always were, totally insufficient and unorganised, even electrical power wasn't available in places before the first race.

Toilets were few and disgusting towards the end of the meeting.

One improvement (and contrary to media reports) i thought getting a bet on was 'acceptable', queues were still in place (albeit shorter than previous years) but there also were self-service kiosks and Longchamp staff with mobile hand-held tablets for placing bets. I didn't see this as a significant negative issue.

Was the granstand worth €75 ? Absolutely no way. Ascot premier enclosure for less money is far superior.

Lack of seating is just one on several things that need looking at. Racegoers i was talking with on the return bus also said the Arc Gardens enclosure was very poor. I also thought there were less TV screens than before. I much prefer the old Longchamp even though it was getting 'tired' as i am now Wink
Report Millerracing67 October 10, 2018 9:32 PM BST
No great surprise that Enables performance was rated some way below her best, I'd rate her win around the 124 mark, approx 5/6lbs below last yrs romp. Don't agree with some of the views that James Doyle road a poor race on SOC ? From a poor draw he road a cracker in my book, just coming up short of winning. As for next yr if both fillies turn up again (Ensble with a much better season behind her) I'd expect Ensble to beat her again. Here's hoping they both stay in training.
Report Millerracing67 October 10, 2018 9:35 PM BST
PS: please forgive the "lazy finger" lol :-)) (Ensble)  aka ENABLE. :-))
Report brigust1 October 15, 2018 4:11 PM BST
Hi Guys
Just watched the Arc and nothing exceptional. I did think Frankie took it a little bit easy going to the front when it was obvious there would be possible late finishers. I backed her and Cracksman so made a little.

I have to agree with Figgis here and think somehow Gosden has Oppenheimer eating out of his hands. I don't think any other trainer in the world would have not run Cracksman in the Arc. Even the promise of the Champion shouldn't have been good enough reason. The distance would have been no problem. I think maybe Gosden always thought Cracksman wasn't that good and cannot believe the luck he has had against poor opponents and the ridiculous rating he has been given. And it looks like he may get away with it again in the Champion. I cannot think of any other possible reason. Beating horses like Permian, Venice Beach, Avilius, Wrens Day and Salouen is awful really. Only his win in the Champion has some merit but against horses like Poets Word (not like ground and not Group 1) is really weak. His sire is the only reason for his rating imo. JG said it wouldn't be fair to run him in a race of that class. It was a crap race really on paper excluding Enable.
Report charwell. October 16, 2018 12:03 AM BST
Bigrust I have never read so much shyte in my life.

Frankie rode a great race on a clearly not quite 100% Enable. He took a great position and she quickened at the perfect time. Her tank was empty at the finish and ridden any other way SOC would have won. I would hardly describe her as crap being an unbeaten classic winner going into the race Crazy

Also, to belittle Cracksmans achievements is ridiculous. His Champion win was in a G1 by 7l. In the field were the multiple G1 winner Poets Word, 7x G1 winner Highland Reel, Recoletos has since won 2x G1 & a G2, Brametot 2x G1 wins, Barney Roy G1 winner. Doesn't seem to me to be a weak G1 in which he destroyed the opposition Laugh

Admittedly some of the other fields were far weaker races; but he easily dispatched Cloth of Stars for eg. by almost 5l without coming off the snaff in the Prix Ganay! Clearly the horse has had problems and to me he isn't as good as Enable but he is still shwon himself to be top class.
Report jedi sophie October 16, 2018 1:49 AM BST
Stop sitting on the fence Charwell...ExcitedShocked
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