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woodmanchester
10 Jan 18 12:13
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 26,014 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
What are the chances he'll have a tilt at the Gold Cup before Aintree, please?
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Report buddeliea January 10, 2018 12:43 PM GMT
Fair I would say, he is in the 38 entries today.
Report Fashion Fever January 10, 2018 5:22 PM GMT
defintley the lively outsider of the race
Report woodmanchester January 11, 2018 12:59 PM GMT
Seems had the right idea at 44.0 exch at time of posting. You'll struggle to get 33/1 with popular layers now. Hills went 40/1 and thought about each-way but they only go 25/1 now. Saw Blaklion win at Aintree recently. Looked as good as all except perhaps Might Bite. Trip no fears anyway
Report Middle_Of_March January 12, 2018 7:13 AM GMT
I took some of that 40/1 last week each way


I make him the each way bet angle of the race as things stand.
Report impossible123 January 12, 2018 1:10 PM GMT
His main target is the Grand National - hope weight (yet to be announced) not too burdensome. On RSA form a stone or more to find though nevertheless, a better prospect than Coney Island (unlikely stayer), I believe.
Report the bloob January 14, 2018 12:33 PM GMT
I've also backed Blaklion antepost at 40/1, but I fear he won't run in the Gold Cup, they are hell-bent on the Grand National. I think the GN would be a mistake, the handicapper is going to take no prisoners given the 4th place last year and Becher romp. I expect he will get his official weight plus another couple of pounds, so plenty more weight than last year. Although he has improved and a more patient ride will help I just think the weight will be too much
Report Can't Catch Me January 14, 2018 11:01 PM GMT
I've backed him at 40/1 as well. Think it's probably only 50/50 they run as it would be hard to see him winning a GN after a gruelling race in the GC a few weeks before. But fingers crossed. He's a 16/1 poke if he runs imo.
Report asparagus January 15, 2018 2:43 PM GMT
A month between the Gold Cup and Grand National this year so i would think strong odds on to run in both from what the stable have said. Couldn't fancy him for the gold cup myself but i guess worse 33/1 shots.
Report Can't Catch Me January 15, 2018 4:06 PM GMT
Sounds like the GC is being used purely as a prep for the GN which isnt great news, but value still at 40's I think.
Report jrw January 19, 2018 9:42 AM GMT
Trainer wants to run him in Gold cup first one of the owners, not so keen thinks he to hard  to run in both
Report impossible123 January 19, 2018 12:01 PM GMT
I think Blaklion would be a worthy runner in the Gold Cup (GC), and have a decent chance for a place if either Sizing John and/or Our Duke underperform. He seems to have improved and apart from Might Bite the likes of Native River (well-being only on trust) and Coney Island (stamina a question to me) he could easily run into a place. However, I do agree though to run in the GC and then the Grand National could be a race too soon and too many. But the money on offer is humongous.
Report dunlaying January 19, 2018 12:38 PM GMT
I think he has more chance of winning the Gold Cup .
Report The Dragon January 19, 2018 3:59 PM GMT
terrible price for the national ante post
Report dunlaying January 19, 2018 6:16 PM GMT
Yes I agree.
Report impossible123 January 19, 2018 9:46 PM GMT
Terrible price indeed, and before the weight has been announced too. Bet you he'll be lumbered with a hefty rise post his credible performances this season.
Report sageform January 28, 2018 2:16 PM GMT
Interesting to look back to his Boxing Day 2016 run behind Wakanda and Definitely Red after yesterday. Three very good horses.
Report the bloob January 28, 2018 3:06 PM GMT
given Bristol de Mai's love of flat, left-handed courses on soft/heavy and in the early part of the season, plus Definitely Red's form since the Charlie Hall, the Blaklion run at Wetherby is looking very solid form now. I hope connections realise what a great chance this horse would have in the Gold Cup, and no reason why they can't go for both GC and GN
Report woodmanchester February 1, 2018 9:11 AM GMT
Blaklion, down to run in the National trial Feb 17th, seen 7/2. Is that too close to have a tilt at the Gold Cup, with the National itself on the agenda too?
Report impossible123 February 1, 2018 11:13 AM GMT
I think connections have had a rethink and the gold Cup is not on the agenda, according to a report today.
Report the bloob February 1, 2018 7:18 PM GMT
it does look that way, I'm hoping they will change their minds when the weights are announced, handicapper is going to slaughter him, top weight guaranteed
Report irishone February 1, 2018 11:46 PM GMT
blaklion wasnt fancied when he won the rsa in a weak year , the only win on allegedly good ground , i feel he needs the soft or heavy and is likely to be weighted out of the grand national this year, he had his chance last year with 11-1 , looked a genuine stayer in his point to point and that rsa , but he outplodded shaneshill up the hill in that rsa and hasnt turned cartwheels for me since.
Report buddeliea February 2, 2018 7:51 AM GMT
Very genuine horse,who falls below top class,thats how I would describe him.
The RSA fell into his lap, and they know hes not up to winning a Gold Cup.

Would agree last year was his big chance for the National,he will surely have more weight this year.
Report the bloob February 2, 2018 9:55 PM GMT
it's a bit presumptive to think that the going will be G/S or better at Cheltenham, if it came up soft then Blaklion would be a player
Report buddeliea February 3, 2018 6:59 AM GMT
Fair point,soft ground would help him,
People just presume it will be good/soft or better, but you are right of course....soft ground is a possibility.
Report irishone February 4, 2018 9:48 AM GMT
cheltenham soft is good over here
its not often the word GOOD is missing
even when there is standing water on the X country
Report casemoney February 11, 2018 7:03 PM GMT
Not a Classic Gold cup by any means  Lion would be a Big runner in my Opinion ... With the Month gap surprised they are not going for the GC ..
Report impossible123 February 11, 2018 8:30 PM GMT
If he's allocated a racing weight for the Grand National maybe skip the Gold Cup otherwise yes.
Report gpz6316 February 12, 2018 11:33 PM GMT
i thought he maybe a new seemorebusiness but i think he just a few pounds below that . i think he plateaued defo red is on the up though my advise would be to look at him for the gold cup
Report gpz6316 February 12, 2018 11:44 PM GMT
defo red beat blacklion 10.5 ls native river only 7.5ls then blacklion won nto so that was his form , defo red is in the form of his life and is being nurtured for the gold cup @20-1 native river imo is a race or two behind in terms of sharpness and is 6-7 -1 .
Report gpz6316 February 12, 2018 11:45 PM GMT
come friday the ground will be opened up also , crazy defo isnt single figures imo
Report impossible123 February 13, 2018 8:56 PM GMT
The Grand National weights are out and he's got 11st 6lbs with Definitely Red (DR) shouldering top weight of 11st 10lbs; in between are BDM, Edwulf, Outlander and Minella Rocco (MR) all but one are unlikely runners. So, he could be shouldering top weight eventually if DR and MR take up their position in the Gold Cup.
Report casemoney February 14, 2018 1:11 AM GMT
DR 11.10 Nearly a stone more than Last year Very Harsh
Report SOULDANCER February 14, 2018 6:13 AM GMT
Yes Blaklion probably top weight.
Report the bloob February 14, 2018 9:18 PM GMT
Blaklion given his official weight in the National, they have got to count their lucky stars on that one, I would have Blaklion over DR in the GN getting 4lbs. Blaklion got a decent hike for the Becher win but how he got away with the run in the Charlie Hall is a mystery, I seem to remember he got dropped 2lbs or something really daft!
Report woodmanchester February 15, 2018 8:05 AM GMT
Very happy with Blaklion's weight allocation. 25/1 tickets looking good. Played him max bet at 9/2 for Haydock Saturday, also
Report impossible123 February 15, 2018 4:37 PM GMT
I think backers of Blaklion (B) would be hoping DR does not run well in the Gold Cup, if so, a likely runner in the Grand National (GN). Otherwise, B could be lumbered with top weight which is a burden, to say the least.
Report woodmanchester February 16, 2018 7:45 AM GMT
Impossible, I'm no expert but don't weights going up only benefit those out of the handicap?

Don't see how a bad run by Deffo Red in the Gold Cup, results in more chance of a National bid. Sure will give a good account in the Gold Cup, then they will decide on the National?
Report woodmanchester February 16, 2018 7:47 AM GMT
Think it's more a case if he has a hard race in the Gold Cup
Report impossible123 February 16, 2018 12:44 PM GMT
If DR lost all chance oP winning the Gold Cup or be placed he'll be allowed to come home in his own time and not subject to a hard race thus increasing the chance of his participation in the Grand National (GN). However, if the opposite was to happen eg triumphant or be placed it'd be less likely he'd taking in the GN but could run in the Aintree Bowl or wait for the punchestown Festival instead. And, next season the GC would be most likely his target again.

I'm no expert either. However, you are correct to infer a weight rise does benefit horses that are out of the handicap, but it also means a bigger burden for any horse already shouldering a hefty weight prior eg Blaklion, especially if the horse concerned is a midget. Also, any serious participant at the bottom of the weights will tend to benefit the most from a weight rise should the top weight decamp.

This is just my understanding.
Report woodmanchester February 16, 2018 7:01 PM GMT
Interesting. So, if one horse is due to carry 11 stone and one 10 stone but they end up carrying 12 stone and 11 stone, it favours the latter. Size of horse counts so the nit-picking of a couple of pounds in handicaps that many see as the be all I say negligible

I realise people have different understandings on the matter
Report sageform February 17, 2018 12:05 PM GMT
They used to say that every pound over 12.00 is equivalent to 2 at lighter weights but very few horses carry 12.00 these days. It is s certainly not a linear graph-in other words each lb extra slows them down a bit more than the previous one.
Report casemoney February 17, 2018 3:27 PM GMT
Dear me absolutely Legless  Plain Was never really Travelling  , that could be that for the season [:sad:
Report buddeliea February 17, 2018 3:46 PM GMT
Very much doubt he will be in Gold Cup anyway
Report casemoney February 17, 2018 3:51 PM GMT
Need to see how he comes out of it , But must be doubts going forward .
Report casemoney February 17, 2018 3:54 PM GMT
Out to 14 on here now ..
Report sageform February 17, 2018 4:42 PM GMT
Everything was legless in the straight apart from Yala Enki. Must be desperate ground. Same thing in the novice hurdle. Only the winner able to jump the last properly.
Report woodmanchester February 17, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
"Everything was legless" There was nothing still going!
Report sageform February 18, 2018 2:28 PM GMT
Only 3 horses able to complete the course in the National trial and one of those was a furlong behind.
Report TINnotaTON February 18, 2018 6:20 PM GMT
Problem with this race now, although mid February, most trainers will be reluctant to run in it again after seeing that yesterday bar a yala enki, could bottom a horse for the season. dreadful ground.
Report IrisDeBalme February 19, 2018 5:42 PM GMT
Was my main bet in National last year and will keep the faith.

My concern is stamina ... he was tanking along 3 out and was swamped near the last.  Watching run Saturday does question how much stamina he has... over 4 miles... nagging doubt in my head would be top 4 and no cigar...
Report Facts February 19, 2018 11:31 PM GMT
Dreadful ground. I backed Wikd West Wind. Was counting my money  after he jumped 3 out, lengths in front.
Then stopped as if shot !!Sad
Report sageform February 20, 2018 8:14 PM GMT
Same here facts and the trainer was confident it would stay. There must have been some false ground along the Haydock straight for so many horses to stop like that. I would put a line through all Haydock form on Saturday but I fear for the recovery time of anything that ran well.
Report Facts February 21, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
Agreed
Report DECALEC February 23, 2018 2:13 AM GMT
Iris you need a psychiatrist
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