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Hibore
02 Jan 18 18:03
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Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 1,324 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
This could be a cracking renewal of one of my favourite races at Sandown. Henderson has entered a few but I’d guess Claimantakinforgan will be his main chance after winning impressively at Ascot ...he’s 2/1 ante post at the moment. The form is ok but he will need to come on a few pounds to match previous winners of this race. We have a dream won nicely at Donny and with Munir and Co flying at the moment I would give this a second look but the form isn’t great and stepping up from an egg and spoon race to Graded races could be a step too far at this stage.
Western Ryder has also going great guns but I’m not sure if he looks like a Grade 1 performer though he will suited by the ground but at 3/1 doesn’t excite me. Other horses I like include Gary Moore’s Sussex Ranger who outstays the mother in law and would be a strong contender on Heavy going and at 10/1 could be an each way play if you can get 3 places.
The horse I like at this stage is KALASHNIKOV who accelerated like a very good horse beating Irish Prophecy easily at Donny in early Dec. The form is ok but the visual impression was very impressive. If was trained by Nichols or Henderson I guess this horse would be 5/2 but as with Amy Murphy you can get 9/2 with 356 which I think is very generous and I’ve taken
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Report ReaseHeath January 2, 2018 7:42 PM GMT
I think this is going to cut up (some of the bookies already betting ew terms 2 places 1/4 odds).

I don't think the following will run:

Dream Brother (once raced PTP winner, 0 hurdle starts, straight into a Grade 1 where his stable has one of the leading contenders?)
Speak Easy (Entered on Sunday at Naas, trainer indicated today he'd possibly run at Naas without mentioning Sandown entry)
We Have A Dream (entered in both Juvenile hurdle at Sandown and Finale Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow on Saturday, will surely stick to 4yo company at this stage)
Sussex Ranger (also entered in Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, likely to stick to 4yo company too although his trainer loves a winner at Sandown).

Might change if Chepstow is off again I suppose.

The roll call of recent winners is interesting: since 2012 Captain Conan, Melodic Rendezvous, Royal Boy, L'Ami Serge, Yorkhill and Finian's Oscar - all strong stayers except Melodic Rendezvous who absolutely revelled in soft/heavy ground. This is probably linked to how testing the hurdles course at Sandown gets during the winter.

I'd love Kalashnikov to win, he's exciting and I agree about the price - he'll be shorter by Saturday.

No bet for me yet but The Russian Doyen has an interesting profile, from the family of Denman (whose brother Silverburn won this in 2007), impressive at Exeter and every chance he can at least turn around the Chepstow bumper form with Mont Des Avaloirs. Stable form is a concern though - 0-27 prior to yesterday and Valhalla's win by default at Exeter so I'll wait to see if that picks up before getting involved.   

Good luck!
Report Mystic Wind January 3, 2018 7:28 PM GMT
Absolute crackajack of a race if they all stand their ground. I have nothing against Claimtakinforgan, but this race features 2 horses I'm getting slightly obsessed about (Kalashnikov and Sussex Ranger) and another who did me a favour LTO and is very likeable (Western Ryder).

Having my main bets on Sussex Ranger for the Triumph and Kalashnikov for the Ballymore, I guess my ideal scenario is that SR leads all the way and beats a fast-finishing K, pair clear!
Report Hibore January 4, 2018 4:42 PM GMT
Claimantakinforgan drifting like barge with Western Ryder and Kalashnikov battling for favouritism.
Report ReaseHeath January 4, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
Yep, looks like at least one of the 4yo will run here now with money for We Have A Dream and Moore stating he would prefer to run here unless the Finale looks like being a weaker race (or words to that effect). I think the Finale will be a weaker race if We Have A Dream runs here so I still don't think both 4yos will run. In any event I'd be against them as it's a big ask against their elders in the likely conditions.
Report Can't Catch Me January 4, 2018 10:32 PM GMT
Certainly looks like Claimantakinforgan doesn't run. Would be really surprised if they decide to run We Have A Dream I must say.
Report unclepuncle January 5, 2018 1:11 PM GMT
Hibore - you've certainly got a good price on Kalshnikov so well done for taking a punt.Grin

It's a no bet race for me.
Report ReaseHeath January 6, 2018 1:13 PM GMT
No racing to gauge Tizzard stable form but took the plunge and backed The Russian Doyen at 14/1 each way - thought I'd been smart beating the Rule 4 on Sussex Ranger and then watched it drift to 16/1. Cry

Just think the race is a bit more open than the market suggests - this lot have got one pattern race win between them - Western Ryder in a listed bumper.

Good luck!
Report sageform January 7, 2018 1:27 PM GMT
Hard to know how good the race was but Robbie Power when interviewed today was very impressed with the winner as was I. No doubt the 2 favourites hated the heavy but the winner might prefer good ground as well.
Report ReaseHeath January 8, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
That went well! Sad

Kalashnikov would be the one I'd take out of the race, most of the Kalanisis seem to want better ground and I loved his attitude in trying to chase down the winner.
Report buddeliea January 8, 2018 9:05 PM GMT
Judging by the jumping going on,or not!, i dont think any of them enjoyed that particularly.
Think i need to see them all again on decent ground.
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