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Hibore
27 Dec 17 22:49
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Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 1,275 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
I'm a bit perplexed why this horse is not shorter in the betting for the Gold Cup. He seemed to run in every conceivable race last year....Hennessy's, Welsh Nationals and GC. This year he's being given the best opportunity with one prep and then the big one. 14/1 or 16/1 seems very generous when he was only beaten a couple of lengths in last years renewal.

Might Bite looks beatable after Tuesdays race with Thistlecrack, Bristol and co all needing to improve massively to figure in March.

Yorkhill is probably the most talented horse in the field but is a nutter and needs to prove he stays 3 miles let alone the stiffest 3 miles 2 furlongs of the year.

Coney Island has potential and ran well at Ascot the other day. His rating is nuts on what he has achieved in my opinion and needs to improve a stone at least to figure.

That leaves Sizing John as a worthy favourite and if winning tomorrow his price contract to 5/2 or even shorter.

16/1 E/W Native River seems the best play at the moment. Unfortunately I don't see any other value bets in the race at the moment.

Any thoughts ?
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Report The Dragon December 28, 2017 2:10 PM GMT
i agree totally bit i backed sizing john some time ago and think it will win again.

on at 9/1
Report Hibore December 28, 2017 7:26 PM GMT
Well that put the cat amongst the pigeons. Still very happy with Native after watching that and topped up with Hills @ 12/1.

SJ being Clinically abnormal doesn't sound great and with Yorkhill not staying the race is wide open.

The winner of the Cotswold or Denman trials will probably be close to favouritism with big doubts over half the field. Interesting to see where Might Bite goes next or perhaps straight to the big one.
Report FOYLESWAR December 28, 2017 7:43 PM GMT
think he will go straight to gold cup ,hendo hinting that was the plan .
Report Hibore December 28, 2017 7:59 PM GMT
Cheers Foyle. Probably makes most sense...

It's funny how in the lead up KG the main concenus was that Might Bite was a Kempton horse and not Cheltenham one, now he's clear fav even though the form of the KG is a bit questionable.
Report impossible123 December 28, 2017 8:37 PM GMT
I like the present campaign for Native River eg yet to be seen, and targets carefully chosen unlike last where he was running as a 'cash cow' for connections.

I can understand why MB is the clear fav today. Prior to the KG only 3 serious contenders for the KG ie SJ, MB and Yorkhill (quirky, talented but stamina unsure) - Douvan was a red herring. And post the KG and today, MB won the KG (authoritatively); SJ suffered from hyperthermia, and Yorkhill (the major unknown) clearly did not stay in the Lexus.

I understand Road To Respect won the Lexus today, but how reliable is the form? The proximity of Balko Des Flos and Outlander, the former a gde 2/handicapper at best; the latter (and 5th Valseur Lido) do not stay a true 3m gde 1 race; Minella Rocco (4th) needs further.

If all this sound with SJ over the next few days/weeks and he makes the GC he and MB are still the ones to beat, I firmly believe.
Report Hibore December 28, 2017 9:55 PM GMT
Might Bite is improving and was obviously going to be well up the betting once he'd won the KG. The negatives are that he needs to improve again past his performance on Tuesday (rated 167 now) for the longer trip in March. I'd imagine he'd need to run to 173-175 at least if he's going to win. If there is a horse in the field that has the potential to improve to do that then he's the most likely but it's a big if with his exezuberent run style.
Report betilyerded December 29, 2017 5:31 PM GMT
Im a Native River fan but really dont see him playing a part this year.

He reminds me a little of a horse Nicky Henderson trained called Burton Port. 2nd in an RSA, then won at Aintree and runner up in next seasons Hennessy before picking up an injury. Eventually returned with a 2nd in the following seasons Denman chase before running a gallant 4th in the Gold Cup.

It just shows how difficult it is bring them back after injury - Thistlecrack being a prime example - and surely his best chance remains the national. Good luck though.
Report Hibore December 29, 2017 5:51 PM GMT
He's not injured.....just laid out for one prep race and then Gold Cup.
Report sageform December 29, 2017 5:52 PM GMT
Just had a small bet on Thistlecrack after the holiday period evidence. Might Bite now the clear form choice but if he has to travel 3.2 miles near the pace and then sees the entrance to the paddock as he did last year when under no pressure, what will he do? It would be silly to totally dismiss Sizing John on the basis of one failure but it creates doubt. Tea For Two is another outsider capable of an upset. Thistlecrack stayed 3 miles really well over hurdles and will benefit from the extra 3 furlongs imo. Native River is a very good handicapper but seemed to improve with racing last season so will he be fit enough after just one or two runs? I'm sure that at least one of the Gigginstown army will run well but which one?
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 7:54 PM GMT
There seems to be a change of mind by the Tizzards regards Native River: he's been reported to go for two preps prior (apparently).

I think the stamina limitation of Thistlecrack was exposed in the King George (soft going), and outstayed by Double Shuffle and Tea For Two. Similarly, in the Cotswold, outstayed by Many Clouds despite going the better of the two and taking it up after jumping the last. Thus cannot have him over an additional 1f or more in the Blue Riband race at the Festival.

Lydia Hislop suggested the Ryanair for Thistlecrack, and he'll have a good chance of victory, I think.
Report betilyerded December 29, 2017 8:04 PM GMT
My mistake, just assumed he was injured given we havent seen him out.

Tizzard said he was "shook up" after the gold Cup - not exactly sure what that means but doesnt bode well for a return. happy to be wrong but still doesnt appeal as the likely winner.
Report Hibore December 30, 2017 11:29 AM GMT
I wasn't aware of that. I only saw the interview where they said it ran a cracker after a long hard season (which fits in with this seasons plan).
Report sageform December 30, 2017 11:41 AM GMT
I thought that Thistlecrack was done for pace on the turn in at Kempton but was finishing best of the first 4!
Report ReaseHeath December 30, 2017 1:04 PM GMT
Some nonsense written about Thistlecrack.

Even if you think he should be running in the Ryanair (I don't!), it's unlikely to happen - it's shaping up to be a deep race and his stable has already intimated that Cue Card may well run in it.

Thistlecrack has won 5 Grade 1s under rules - all of them over 3 miles plus.He's only had 6 chase starts and he's yet to run in a Gold Cup, rising 10 it could well be that March 2018 will be his only chance to do so.

He ran OK in the King George - certainly in the context of his run in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, to me it looked like he got tired again towards the end and consequently did n't jump the second last well.Of potentially more siginificance, his jumping was basically sound and economic with none of those flashy, overly exuberant leaps we occasionally saw in in his novice season.

I might be in the minority but I question whether he was outstayed by Many Clouds in the Cotswold Chase, I think it's more likely that the injury he sustained in the race (which subsequently kept him off the track for 10 months) prevented him from giving of his absolute best - either way he was n't lacking in heart or resolution and was beaten by a really tough opponent.I also think his run on Boxing Day was sufficiently encouraging to put to bed the idea that the Cotswold Chase 'bottomed' him.

You have to doubt whether he'll ever reach the imperious form he showed in 2016 again but it's worth remembering that it took Sprinter Sacre 4 runs and 10 months after his comeback before he was recognisable as his former self (albeit a comeback from a different issue and a longer absence).

The problem they have is whether they run him again before the Gold Cup - they might be loathe to go back to the Cotswold Chase but the Denman Chase at Newbury might be a decent option.

Going back to Native River, I'm just struggling to see why he's half the price of Minella Rocco who finished in front of him last season - Minella Rocco always seems to improve beyond recognition in the spring and, with that in mind, actually ran quite encouragingly at Leopardstown the other day - the issues with him are that he's likely to get too far behind Might Bite and the suspicion that they might be thinking about the Grand National.

I'd like to see Native River confirm his well being and see more progress from Thistlecrack before I could get involved with either - obviously I might miss the fancy prices but it looks competitive and potentially confusing enough for there to be attractive prices available but some very decent animals on the day.
Report Hibore December 30, 2017 6:28 PM GMT
This is the ANTEPOST thread so waiting for them all to run kinda defeats the object.

The reason that Minella Rocco is twice the price is probably that in the Gold Cup Native had already had beaten off BDM, Champagne West and Djakadam to still be leading 2 out and MR came through to pick up 2nd on the line (short head).

Might Bite fans are rightly pointing out the he had to beat off BDM and this allowed Double and TFT to get so close. I have no doubt that Might Bite would have won easier if BDM was not in the race.
Report impossible123 December 30, 2017 6:38 PM GMT
Minella Rocco needs further than 26.5f. He won a 4m chase at the Festival beating Native River.
Report betilyerded December 30, 2017 6:39 PM GMT
FWIW I would love to see Blaklion run but would appear not to be the plan.

As an aside, other than Lord Windermere, all Gold Cup winners this century had hit a topspeed of at least 145 over fences with most of them being in the 150's and 160's, yet despite his record Might Bite has yet to break the out of the 130's, either over fences or hurdles.

Gives cause for concern that he has yet to be really tested and taken out of his comfort zone. Just something to mull over..
Report impossible123 December 30, 2017 8:41 PM GMT
But for Altior I think Might Bite could win the Champion Chase, and certainly the Ryanair; he has the bold jumping ability and stamina (ask BDM). Comfort zone? What is that, Might Bite asks!
Report the bloob December 30, 2017 8:54 PM GMT
surely Might Bite was well on the way to big time ratings at Kempton last year and Cheltenham until the 'episode'
Report ReaseHeath December 30, 2017 9:48 PM GMT
The object of the exercise is surely to make a profit on the race - I don't much care whether that's on the basis of a bet struck today or on March 16th!

I'm not saying Minella Rocco should be shorter than Native River merely that the discrepancy in prices between them is too big - not least because one of them was sighted fit and well two days ago and the other one has n't been seen since March. In fact, by the time he runs again he will have been off longer than Thistlecrack was with a well documented injury - I can't believe that would have been the plan if you'd asked connections the day after the Gold Cup in March. 

I take the point about run style - in fact I think I made it myself but you get paid out on the result not the way the race was run. Anyway it looks like Native River will run in either the Cotswold Chase or the Denman Chase after a racecourse gallop next week according to his trainer so the news on him is encouraging:

http://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/sport/localsport/15798988.Racing__Colin_Tizzard_to_gallop_Native_River_for_Cotswold/   

If you forced me to have a bet today, I'd probably have a speculator on Thistlecrack - although that would probably be my heart ruling my head - but I reserve the right to change my mind after the Cotswold Chase and the Denman!
Report Hibore December 31, 2017 10:55 AM GMT
Just because a horse is kept away from early season bad ground to allow him to peak for the big Spring races is not a negative. It must be a massive advantage to be fresh going into Cheltenham and the Tizzards made this clear months ago. They also have the highest rated Chaser left in the race without Sizing John and his best form is on good/soft.

My initial post on this ante post thread was just pointing out he was also 3/1 fav on the morning of the race last year beaten on 2 lengths and was available @ 16/1 and was being given the best opportunity to run well. I’d still rather back him at 8/1 over Might stay / Might not.

In today’s post......



River in good nick before return to action

Shorter in the Gold Cup betting with odds ranging from 8-1 to 12-1 is the 2017 Cheltenham third Native River, who could make his belated reappearance in Newbury's Betfair Denman Chase, a prize he took last season.

"We don't have a definite plan yet," said Tizzard. "His owners were in on Friday and we talked about it but nothing definite was decided

"He'll have one run before the Gold Cup. Whether we come back to Newbury for the Denman or find a hurdle race for him, I don't know. There's a lot being juggled about at the moment. He's in good nick."
Report ReaseHeath December 31, 2017 1:05 PM GMT
You asked for thoughts on your original post - I'm merely offering different ones to yours which is what the forum is for surely?

The most significant thing Tizzard says is 'There's a lot being juggled about at the moment' which I take to mean they would ideally like to get another run into Thistlecrack too (who has still only run in 6 chases) and they don't want them beating each other up in the same race. They might want to avoid the Cotswold Chase if it's on deep ground after what happened last year which probably means one in the Cleeve Hurdle and one in the Denman. At the risk of contradicting myself, they might be swayed but the fact that Native River prepped successfully for the Hennessy in a hurdle race last year although he ran in the Denman as well! There might not be much decent ground anywhere between now and the festival either.

You obviously got on before the main Irish contenders fluffed their lines in at Leopardstown so you may well have some value but he has only shortened in recent days because of that and an upbeat stable bulletin. They were upbeat about Thistlecrack before the Long Distance hurdle at Newbury (they're hardly going to be anything else!) and look how that turned out.

Anyway, I'm boring myself now - I like the Tizzards and I like their horses - my main point is I don't believe that it has always been the plan to lay him out for the Gold Cup after just one run - in fact, I've just looked up what Tizzard said in his Racing Post stable tour at the start of the season (Monday October 30):

Jarred himself a little bit in the Gold Cup, came back with a bit of ligament trouble, so he's been late coming back in and is just cantering now. The plan is to give him a race over hurdles around Christmas and then go for the Denman Chase at Newbury, which he won last season, before having another try at the Gold Cup.
Report betilyerded December 31, 2017 3:30 PM GMT
So does this suggest its taken longer to get him ready to run than they anticipated as he would have had his hurdles run around now?

First Ive heard about ligament trouble too, so, In essence he IS coming back from injury. Would prefer Minella Rocco at twice the odds at this moment in time.
Report nocturnal December 31, 2017 5:12 PM GMT
Opinions,opinions......exactly what the forum should be for Rease,agreed.

Hibore....well made points in the original post,regardless of what has transpired since.

Native River......Talk of him as a gold cup horse early parts last season,well that would have been pretty thin on the ground.
Tremendous jumper,his effort in the Welsh National was some performance,and as a guess,I do wonder if it surprised connections,bearing in mind the talent within the stable at that point.
Despite winning his next race,and arguably improving further in the Gold Cup,nagging doubt that race at chepstow may have been his main target,at that point in his career.

Time will tell if a decent break may just be the making of the horse,turning 8 tomorrow there is every reason for supporters to suggest any further improvement puts him right in the mix.

Looking back at last years race,the three 7 yr olds finnished top 3,BDM was 6yr old,suggesting they were on the upward spiral form wise,something worth bearing in mind for this years renewal,plenty of time for a couple to appear on that same kind of upward path.

Race has a open look this far out,question marks over every horse depending on your stance.

No surprise, if NR proves his well being,he has the potential to lift the crown come march,as does his stablemate,both have questions to answer,but that is factored into the price.

One last point re the stable,they have tasted success ,but are relative newcomers at the high table in comparison to some of the bigger yards,they too are learning all the time whats required to get their horses to peak at exactly the right time,not to be under-estimated.

Native River definately a player if they can get him there.
Report sageform December 31, 2017 5:22 PM GMT
NR thrived on racing last year and so far this season, the Tizzard team have underestimated the fitness of many of their horses, Thistlecrack and several others so unless NR is an exception, they will have their work cut out to get enough work/races into him in 9 weeks.
Report ReaseHeath December 31, 2017 5:41 PM GMT
yep, noc it's all food for thought - I did n't know he'd been injured and it's only this thread that prompted me to look into it.

I agree about the Tizzards still learning and that might be linked to him not being out yet - they're probably being cautious after underestimating Thistlecrack's fitness fto plus Native River is notably lazy and it might be difficult for them to assess how fit he is at home (that novice chase he won at Aintree when Richard Johnson had to really roust him to produce his best lives long in the memory).

The upside is that the problems he had after the race arguably make his performance in the Gold Cup even more creditable.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. I would n't have the first clue how to train a top class racehorse but the more I think about it, the more difficult it seems - worth bearing in mind as a punter.
Report nocturnal December 31, 2017 6:54 PM GMT
Thats the point Sage.....His improvement last year continued throughout the season,would they have risked bottoming him out in the welsh mud,if they thought he was their GC horse ?

FWIW....No doubt in my mind he was behind CC/TC in the stable pecking order,yet come race day in March he was their main hope.Added to this the ground was not ideal for this galloping sort,the race time was below standard on official" good ",I think he might be much more suited to easier ground,another potential problem given the courses recent history.

The other observation from last years renewal......both NR and Djak finnished to the far side after the last fence,fatal mistake by both jockeys,the ground nearer the stands side has looked quicker in previous renewals,both SJ and MR came wider after the last,especially the second.

Lets hope they all get there,cracking race in prospect this far out.
Report liberator of the oppressed January 1, 2018 6:22 PM GMT
Will win the english National I hope misses the GC carries weight can jump stays forever and national fences nothing like they were I've got £100 on at 33/1 as a starter. Would have gone all in if was sure will miss the GC.
Report the bloob January 3, 2018 7:32 PM GMT
followed you in on Native River, 10/1 NRNB with 364 is too tempting, a decent prep and should be less on the day
Report FOYLESWAR January 3, 2018 9:55 PM GMT
minella rocco at 25s must be some value ,stays ran 2nd last year following a series of average runs, won the previous seasons 4 miler beating native river ,similar  average form this season but in the lexus before the last he went very low in running around 2 .75 iirc ,after giving up the outside to no one most of the  the way round on ground that wouldnt have suited , i am on mite bite at 7s but have added rocco at 25s and bigger on here  .
Report The Dragon January 4, 2018 7:50 AM GMT
i have had a small anmount at 30,s as must be in with a shout but may just lack the class , might be a national horse?
Report buddeliea January 11, 2018 7:09 PM GMT
Totally agree Foyles,25 is a very good price imo.....thanks Hills. Still available at 16 nrnb if anyone interested.
How he is twice the price of Native River is beyond me,but glad he is!!
He will do exactly what he did last year i imagine,and to me the race dont look much better than last year,although obviously we did not have Might Bite who i am a fan of,but he does have to prove he stays 3m2f.
SJ got doubts after his last run as well.
Makes perfect sense to have MR on side mate.
Report Hibore January 12, 2018 8:57 AM GMT
Nice to hear positive vibes coming out of the Tizzards regarding Native River. Interesting they were disappointed with the Gold Cup run last year and thought they went to the "Well" once too often.
Report impossible123 January 12, 2018 1:14 PM GMT
Regrettably, the Tizzards seem to the last to grasp their charges were either over-exerted or running in inappropriate distances.
Report FELTFAIR January 12, 2018 6:00 PM GMT
There`s probably a job for you at Venn Farms Bungle.
Report betilyerded January 31, 2018 7:01 PM GMT
Native River not in National. Quite surprising, thought he was made for it.

is there something wrong....?
Report ReaseHeath January 31, 2018 7:41 PM GMT
the owners are n't keen on the Grand National apparently so I assume that's why he is n't entered...
Report Hibore February 1, 2018 4:55 PM GMT
Not long till Newbury. Any thoughts on who will take him on ? Might Bite has bottled it apparently.

Just hope he runs well and gets to the Gold Cup in one piece. Still think 10/1 is a massive price looking at the pro's and con's of each horse.
Report buddeliea February 1, 2018 4:57 PM GMT
Might Bite bottled it?
Report impossible123 February 1, 2018 6:31 PM GMT
I disagree, Might Bite has not bottled it. It is just not necessary to run again post his King George victory. Why another (possibly) exertive race so close to the main event.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y February 1, 2018 7:07 PM GMT
What is your bloody obsession with horses not running between Christmas and Cheltenham ffs??

As I already pointed out Sizing John ran in both the Kinloch Brae and Irish Gold Cup before going on to win the Gold Cup so him needing to be left off is nonsense.

As for Might Bite he had a run at Doncaster 5 weeks before the festival last year and was in the process of producing a monster performance until he went walkabout after the last. With a horse like Might Bite it could be even better for him to have a prep to get the freshness out of him.
Report buddeliea February 1, 2018 8:55 PM GMT
What suited Sizing John may not suit Might Bite......obviously.

Has Might Bites trainer said anything about running before the festival?
Think thats the important thing here.
Report Hibore February 6, 2018 1:42 PM GMT
Henderson said he'd be likely run in Denman and then go on to the Gold Cup after he won the King George. Obviously he changed his mind and that is his perogative. If Native wasn't going to be entered and MB was only up against Cloudy Dream, SDR and Traffic Fluide I think you'd see him run. Interesting if he has a racecourse gallop in the next 2 or 3 weeks.
Report buddeliea February 6, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
Possible, he does like  Racecourse Gallops.
Was at Kempton last Feb when he galloped three before racing.

End of the day he will do what he thinks is best to get the best chance of winning the Gold Cup.
With his record i would simply go with whatever he decides.
Report sixtwosix February 6, 2018 6:41 PM GMT
Far more interested in Cloudy Dream ......before he wins the Gold Cup.
Report gpz6316 February 7, 2018 10:25 PM GMT
its a strong move to hold him back and forsake prizemoney in pursuit of glory , respect to connections for that . if he wins on saturday not beating any big contendors would he be much shorter than he is now ? he also has to come out of the race well and get to chelts . personnally i like defo red and have a bit ante on him , but , if he wins well i see 5-1 ish hes 9 ish now so i will wait till the day now
Report sageform February 8, 2018 9:07 AM GMT
None of us know for sure whether a horse will benefit from a run or not but I was a huge fan of Native River last year and thought he thrived on plenty of racing and improved every time he ran although his Denman win produced a lower RPR because he had no opposition. I think they are taking a big gamble by giving him just one prep and the stable form suggests that he may well underperform on Saturday although he could be 10lb below par and still win.
Report Hibore February 8, 2018 12:05 PM GMT
The owner thinks he will come on for the run and the price reflects that. Native came on bundles for his first run last season in a hurdle when he was beaten by Silsol.

Both Cloudy and Saphir are good yardsticks and I don't think Tizzard will be that disappointed if he doesn't win. As long as he shows some spark and isn't beaten miles I'd guess the Gold Cup would still be on the agenda.

Saturday is a no bet for me..

Tizzard may also give him a race course gallop at Kempton end of Feb like he did for Cue Card last year.
Report ReaseHeath February 8, 2018 12:15 PM GMT
I'm not sure Native River will win if he's 10lb below par - he is rated 166 to Saphir Du Rheu's 160 and has to give him 6lb on Saturday. In fact if you take their Gold Cup form literally (I don't, but bear with me), SDR is 6lbs better off for a 3.5 length beating. Cloudy Dream is progressive, has never finished outside the first two over fences,will appreciate better ground than he had at Aintree and his defeat by Definitly Red there reads better now than it did at the time.

It looks like Fountain's Windfall will run at Warwick to me and you'd be hard pressed to make a case for Traffic Fluide.

Native River looks a bit short for Sat imo (it'll be interesting to see how the market moves on the day especially bearing in mind the question marks over the form of the Tizzard stable) - although the flip side is that he is 3-3 over fences at Newbury and SDR and Cloudy Dream are both pretty good at finding ways not to win races (Native River's strike rate is much better).

So Saturday looks like a watching brief - NR could run perfectly well and get beaten but still enhance his chances for the Gold Cup.
Report dunlaying February 8, 2018 6:08 PM GMT
Fountain's Windfall had every chance in the Denman . What a shame!
Report sageform February 8, 2018 7:44 PM GMT
Yes, perhaps I underestimated the opposition. Not sure he should even be favourite given the stable form and lack of a run.
Report ReaseHeath February 8, 2018 9:09 PM GMT
I could be wrong about Fountains Windfall, dunlaying (would n't be the first time!) but Honeyball says he wants Coleman to ride, Coleman's name is jocked up against him at Warwick and he (Coleman) does n't have a ride in the Betfair Hurdle which declared today.
Report gpz6316 February 8, 2018 9:26 PM GMT
just having a poke at sageform regarding nobody knows whether or not he will benefit for a run . only to say look at the past g.c winners they were all active in their season more than once , suggesting certainly a race is of benefit
Report sageform February 9, 2018 9:11 AM GMT
That is fair comment but statistics often lie. I agree that winners of big races are usually coming from a successful season which NR was last year when he was not quite good enough.
Report Hibore February 9, 2018 11:42 AM GMT
If Native had run in early Nov would tomorrow mean he wouldn't still need the run ? Doubt it. He'll come on massively for the run according to the owner.

I think it's been a blessing in disguise to miss all the bad ground which has taken it's toll on a number of the high profile Gold Cup fancies.

I actually think Cloudy Dream may be worth a few quid tomorrow and in the Gold Cup. He travels like a good horse and might be able to nick a place in the big one at very nice odds. If he wins tomorrow he'll be 16/1.
Report geoff m February 10, 2018 2:36 PM GMT
Well @ least hes still got a leg in each corner.
Report gpz6316 February 10, 2018 5:36 PM GMT
my honest opinion is that native river will still need it come gold cup time . hes a shoe in for aintree , however ,
Report woodmanchester February 10, 2018 7:14 PM GMT
If Native can run Gold Cup and Grand National, don't see why Blaklion couldn't?
Report Hibore February 10, 2018 7:36 PM GMT
I was very pleased with that (understatement). Watched the race in a stairwell at Wembley after Spurs easy win against Wengers girls.

Thought he'd be 4/1 or 9/2 after that but surprised that 13/2 was still available. If that had been Might Bite running that exact race he's be 9/4 or 5/2 now ?

I think he's the most likely winner now and can only improve. Bring on the Gold Cup !
Report impossible123 February 10, 2018 8:02 PM GMT
He won well but 6/1 is mighty short enough. I believe, as the 2nd Cloudy Dream is not a true stayer and rated at least 1 stone and more below the top 2 in the betting. Will need to improve from last season to win the Gold Cup.
Report ReaseHeath February 10, 2018 8:27 PM GMT

Feb 10, 2018 -- 1:14PM, woodmanchester wrote:


If Native can run Gold Cup and Grand National, don't see why Blaklion couldn't?


Neither can Native River, he's not entered in the Grand National

Report Hibore February 10, 2018 9:13 PM GMT
Totally agree impossible. Needs to improve but on adjusted time today ran better than last year in this race which could give him another 3-5lbs. I doubt the handicapper will change his 166 rating which puts him in the same bracket as Might Bite and SJ.

At least we know he stays the trip (as does SJ) but that is unknown for Might Bite as he's only beaten two horses rated a stone or more below the next two horses in the Gold Cup betting.
Report ReaseHeath February 10, 2018 10:37 PM GMT
Just watched it back, very likeable performance - Native River and Dickie are made for each other. Not too many negatives about his Gold Cup chances now he has proved his well being -especially if his stable go into the festival in better form than last year.

It's increasingly difficult to see the winner coming from outside the first three in the market - Definitly Red and perhaps Our Duke the most interesting of the others...
Report buddeliea February 11, 2018 7:29 AM GMT
Really Rease?
I can see quiet a few with chances to be honest.
If Might Bite proves he is simply a class apart then fair enough,and i think he may well be,but any flaws on the day,then i think a lot more than 2 others are big players.
The race will be a fair pace i imagine,with MB,NR and DR all likely to be right up there.Now it may be that that is where you need to be and that they will gradually burn the others off with the relentless pace,but i can also see that being off the pace could be of benefit,and the likes of KV,Rocco and Edwulf could well figure in the finish.
Would not be at all surprised if we have a fair few with chances towards the last.......but to me it all hinges on Might Bite,he could p!ss up.
Report unclepuncle February 11, 2018 8:17 AM GMT
Still looks wide open to me and there at least 10 horses who could win it that wouldn't be a total surprise.
If BVD wins the CH then I’ll be praying for Sizing John to win having done a nice double on them straight after last years  festival.
I’m a big Coney Island fan but I think they might be better going for the Ryanair this year.
Report buddeliea February 11, 2018 8:35 AM GMT
Ha ha, i got an early season double Buveur Dair and Might Bite uncle.
Be nice if one of us picks up......preferably meLaugh
Report woodmanchester February 11, 2018 10:06 AM GMT
Thanks Rease. Thought someone mentioned Native and the Grand National?
Report impossible123 February 11, 2018 6:14 PM GMT
If the ground was soft or worse which would be not ideal for SJ and to a lesser degree MB NR could be the one that would benefit the most as he was just under 3l behind SJ on good ground in the last renewal; the other pretenders eg Road To Respect, Definitely Red, Minella Rocco and Edwulf all do not possess Gold Cup form or been there and beaten fairly and squarely on good ground, but what a story if the last mentioned wins it!
Report casemoney February 11, 2018 6:52 PM GMT
If I were Blaklions Connections I would go for the Gold cup Plain
Report woodmanchester February 12, 2018 9:30 AM GMT
See how he comes out of the Haydock slog this Saturday first Wink
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