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SOULDANCER
12 Dec 17 07:37
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Date Joined: 06 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 2,675 | Blogger: SOULDANCER's blog
There were 2 in this I liked and was considering ante-post, didn't bother. Only 1 left now, feel like a winner already. Wait till nrnb now, whatever price I get I feel I can double it.
Ante-post...you failed to get me there...for once.
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Report unclepuncle December 12, 2017 11:07 AM GMT
Most pointless opening post ever award goes to Souldancer.
Report unclepuncle December 12, 2017 11:11 AM GMT
I've gone for Splash Of Ginge @ 12/1 - with the snow to thaw and lots of rain Wed I'm hoping it's desperate going.
Report SOULDANCER December 12, 2017 2:21 PM GMT
Just highlighting the joys of not betting ante-post on h'caps....Sorry was in a good mood, went to bed thinking Cardiff lost 2-0, up this morning 2-2.
Report SOULDANCER December 12, 2017 2:31 PM GMT
I hope you wasn't including the Horse Racing forum in that comment...I'd be really hurt.
Report Desmond Orchard December 12, 2017 2:46 PM GMT
He wouldn't be the first to double up from the PP, Unc. But they tend to be progressive types, whereas I feel he just had everything go right for him on the day (including his attitude).
That said, he could be called the winner a long way out and so may have a few pounds in hand - but I couldn't trust him to back that run up.
I've long felt that OOSeven had a big one in him and that he appreciates a bit of cut - he'll do for me e/w at 12/1.
Report SOULDANCER December 12, 2017 5:55 PM GMT
Looking at prices on here doesn't look like Foxtail or Romain are turning up.
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2017 6:24 PM GMT
I think O O Seven has untapped potential over fences too Desmond but the problem for me is that he's also entered at Doncaster on Saturday and Henderson has form for withdrawing him on soft ground at Cheltenham (was meant to run in the Dipper on New Year's Day and was pulled out on the day of the race) despite the fact that he ran a perfectly good race on heavy ground in the Tolworth when beaten by Yorkhill a couple of years ago. Henderson did n't want him over exert himself jumping out of soft ground if I recall correctly. So I can see him going to Doncaster if the ground is better there (as it often is).

I think King's Odyssey has one of these races in him too (but I think he would prefer better ground than he's likely to get on Saturday).Long House Hall is also interesting - off a long time but entered up previously recently and also in the rearranged Peterborough at Taunton on Thursday.

I do like the angle with Splash Of Ginge that if Bargarry rides he is effectively only 2lbs higher than for his Betvictor Gold Cup win.

I'll wait though.
Report Desmond Orchard December 12, 2017 7:10 PM GMT
Cheers Rease, I didn't notice the double entry (so to speak). I'll wait until day of race, he couldn't be any shorter than 9/1 anyway.
I will say that my understanding is that the barn thought he was a good one, so perhaps they were protecting him from deep ground? His worse run last year was on good ground at Donny, so I'd be stunned if they chose there.
I like a second season chaser that was a highly thought of novice, but didn't quite make the grade, in these big Saturday handicaps and I've had my eye on him for a while.
If he can't go close here off 153, in what I think are ideal conditions, then Hendo had him all wrong from the start.
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2017 7:56 PM GMT
Just had another look - the trip at Cheltenham would seem more suitable too.

Henderson has both O O Seven and Kilcrea Vale double entered so maybe just keeping his options open in case of abandonment etc..

His chase debut on the old course last November was very taking and still looks good when you look at the beaten horses (I accept Barters Hill hurt himself) - not too much wrong with the rest of his form either (I'd forgive the RSA effort given the nature of the race).

I'd not even noticed he was entered until you flagged him up!
Report czech mate December 12, 2017 10:09 PM GMT
Think you are right about kings odyssey having one of these in him reaseheath - am hoping Saturday will be the day! Unsure why you think the ground may be unsuitable as all his winning form is on soft or heavy including at Cheltenham - travelling well in this (albeit some way out) when he fell last year off a higher mark too.
Report nocturnal December 12, 2017 10:10 PM GMT
Still 17 left at the 5 day stage,Cobden booked for CDO,suggesting he will head the weights.

Clan Des Obeaux...... very interesting,the form with whisper potentially has him thrown in off 155.

Quite surprised to hear PFN say he wanted deep ground,is that based on haydock alone ?

Was thinking he might claim due to the weight,guess not,possibly a tip in itself,he may well go on to much better things as the season progresses,potentially top class ,still only 5.

Plenty of these contested the betvictor,conditions came right for the winner,stuck on really gamely.
I can see the attraction given SOG small rise,has that race left a mark would be my concern.

Guitar Pete.......If there is a dark one in here,surely it must be this horse.

Another cast off from the hughes stable,his 4 yr old campaign suggested he was top class.
Placed in the triumph,winning at Aintree,looked an outstanding prospect.

Not quite gone to plan since,that calibre of racing as a 4yr old,may have contributed to his decline.

Now with the NR yard,he went into a grade 1 handicap at wetherby off 127,he put Sametegal, a decent horse who ran well in the sefton,to the sword,suggesting he retains plenty of that earlier ability.

Shade unlucky at the first fence in the BV,almost brought down,he lost any chance right there.
Jockey kept him at it whole way,that experience could be a factor saturday.

Assuming there were a coachload of wannabee claptons at cheltenham,our layer friends reported him backed from
16/1 into 11/1 that day,time will tell if that was proper support.

Whether he wants really soft ground,the jury remains out,long way to come for a duck egg.

Around the 20/1 mark,3lb claimer brings him down to 10-02,looks overpriced to me.

Looks competitive,just as it should be.
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2017 10:46 PM GMT
czech mate - yes you're right, I was looking at the breeding rather than the form - bad habit! I see he's only 1lb higher than when winning the novice handicap chase on trials day a couple of years back, will take a closer look before the w/e.

Agree noc - I was initially disappointed with the numbers but the more I look the more competitive it seems to be (not usually a good sign for me from a punting perspective!) - hopefully most of them will stand their ground.
Report woodmanchester December 14, 2017 8:58 AM GMT
Watched Starchitect's odds tumble from 10/1 to 13/2 but had a terrible amount of non runners ante-post, so keeping my powder dry 'til NRMB
Report SOULDANCER December 14, 2017 12:44 PM GMT
Romain and Foxtail still in, surprising with prices that were available. On Tour was my other one, that hasn't turned up. Saved more money. Time to look again, only 11 runners but I think this race has beaten me already.
Report unclepuncle December 14, 2017 1:00 PM GMT
I added a small bet on Ballyalton yesterday at 13.5 (shocking aftertime I knowShocked)
Report ReaseHeath December 14, 2017 1:06 PM GMT
They,ve left Bellamy on Splash of Ginge (which is commendable) and Bargarry rides Foxtail Hill - same as in the BetVictor - I think it was Splash of Ginge's owner who suggested Bargarry might take 3lbs off earlier in the week - therefore perhaps there was a doubt at that point about whether Foxtail Hill would run or not.
Report dunlaying December 14, 2017 1:30 PM GMT
Deauville Dancer takes a big step up but might just surprise.
Report sixtwosix December 14, 2017 6:11 PM GMT
11 runners ......miserable turnout , presuming they even all run
Report unclepuncle December 14, 2017 6:34 PM GMT
While it’s not a great turnout or a vintage renewal it is a very open race - 5/1 the field on Saturday I expect.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 14, 2017 9:59 PM GMT
Might be 5/1 the field but with so little runners it restricts the bigger prices being gained.

Wont ever be 5/1 the field on the day given the way bookies shorten everything, false fav will be at least 7/2 or less.

70k race with 11 runners is a poor turnout.
Report unclepuncle December 15, 2017 10:13 AM GMT
I think the introduction of the Ryanair has had an effect on the quality as the better horses at the intermediate distance now get campaigned at graded level on route to a crack at the Ryanair - eg Top Notch.

In the past really top class horses used to run in the two big Cheltenham handicaps (Mackeson Gold Cup and Masey Ferguson/Tripleprint) like Bradbury Star, Dublin Flyer, Fondmort, etc.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 15, 2017 11:17 AM GMT
Get a feeling the ground will be very, very testing. The ground has already changed from good to soft to soft without any rain in the last 3 days.

I have punted Ginge as i feel it will be really heavy.
Report unclepuncle December 15, 2017 11:46 AM GMT
I think it will be very very tacky and holding - is there fresh ground being saved for tomorrow?
Last time it was raining all day so the ground was very soft, but wet and sloppy, so not totally sure it will suit Ginge as much this time.
Report unclepuncle December 15, 2017 2:25 PM GMT
Having watched the first 4 races today the ground doesn't look too bad so I have upped my stake on Ballyalton @ 9/1 and he is now my main bet.
Report AFTERTHOUGHT December 15, 2017 11:00 PM GMT
KING’S ODYSSEY for me for what it's worth ..........down to 140 which must make him well handicapped and a win may be sooner rather than later. More rain would be a bonus.

Some notes after last years race:
Evan Williams’ 7yo came down at the 12th fence on Saturday, just as the race was starting to hot up and approach the business end. He had made an error two fences before departing but he still looked full of running when making a slithering mistake and he just couldn’t find a leg to save himself; I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to say this effort has to go down as a shade unlucky. To be fair to the horse he had jumped well enough in the main up until those two errors and his jockey Daryl Jacob had yet to even contemplate asking his mount for any kind of effort.

With only five chase starts to his name there should still be plenty more to come and there’s a good chance he’ll make amends for this spill whilst the ground stays testing. He’s 2 from 2 on heavy ground and he was clearly relishing the rain softened ground on Saturday, travelling well within himself before his unfortunate race ending blunder.

He wouldn’t be a horse with a massive amount of wiggle room from his current mark of OR 147 but with a clear liking for Cheltenham he’s worth keeping in mind for the G3 handicap run at the track on New Year’s Day or the similar G3 handicap run on Trials Day at the end of January. Both are over the same C&D as the Caspian Caviar and there is a high chance he will get the testing ground he so desires.

Keep an eye on the King returning to Cheltenham in the near future…
Report ReaseHeath December 16, 2017 11:41 AM GMT
Backed Foxtail Hill at 14/1 ew this morning in the end - I don't think the ground will be as testing as anticipated earlier in the week.

Still like King's Odyssey but will pass at the current prices - the perils of not betting ante post!

Good luck!
Report Desmond Orchard December 16, 2017 11:45 AM GMT
With my original fancy not taking part, I don't have a strong fancy for this.
If you take the favourites form with Whisper literally, he's chucked in. But there's a world of difference between a match and a pell-mell big Saturday handicap - 3/1, no thanks.
I like Starchitect for this, but Pipes runners are not finishing off their races at the moment- Vieux Lion Rouge and Rathlin Rose both folded very tamely at Aintree last Saturday and that's a concern
Guitar Pete also appeals, but rarely gets his head in front.
So no proper bet, but a few pennies on those three in the combi forecasts and tricasts, just for fun. GL all.
Report SOULDANCER December 16, 2017 12:49 PM GMT
STARCHITECT 6-1 looks fair enough if he produces same as last run.
Report SOULDANCER December 16, 2017 2:05 PM GMT
God that was horrible, poor horse
Report unclepuncle December 16, 2017 2:17 PM GMT
Well done Nocturnal great shout even if the circumstances mean it might not have a very sweet taste.
And unlucky Souldancer and Desmond.

RIP Starchitect.Sad
Report Facts December 16, 2017 2:19 PM GMT
It was awful.  One of those races where you feel empty afterwards. Not bothered about losing money, and Nocturnal. you correctly forecast the winner, but I'm sure you wouldn't have wanted to win under such circumstances !Sad
Report nocturnal December 16, 2017 2:38 PM GMT
Correct Facts......RIP Starchitect.
Report SOULDANCER December 16, 2017 3:50 PM GMT
Well done Noc
Report Desmond Orchard December 16, 2017 4:15 PM GMT
Only had £2 lines Unc, so not a great loss in comparison to what connections have had to go through.
Report woodmanchester December 16, 2017 5:16 PM GMT
I was on Starchitect, counting my chickens and laughing all the way to the bank

Sod the money. That was heart-breaking. Are we sure he didn't stand in a deep hole? Very rare a steeplechaser breaks a leg when running along the flat in a straight line. Somehow reminded me of Devon Loch in as much as it was inexplicable! Cry
Report dunlaying December 16, 2017 7:19 PM GMT
There must have been incidents like it in the last 50 + years but I can't remember any. Can you?
Report ReaseHeath December 16, 2017 8:12 PM GMT
Can only echo what's been written above - horrible - he was in the process of hosing up and would have been getting quotes for the Ryanair.

Not that that matters, poor horse, horrendous for connections...all of them but can't be easy for his stable lad/lass or Tom Scu, awful experience for a jockey.
Report unclepuncle December 16, 2017 9:20 PM GMT
The one I always remember is Valiramix, trained by Martin Pipe, who was going to hack up in the Champion Hurdle when he stumbled nd broke his leg.
Report unclepuncle December 16, 2017 9:22 PM GMT
For all tha5 me must have been well odds on in running I think it was too far out to say Starchitect was definitely going to win, let alone hose up.
Report woodmanchester December 18, 2017 8:52 AM GMT
Was galloping along very merrily indeed. Doubt very much the rest would have got a sniff
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