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16 Nov 17 08:24
Date Joined: 22 May 10
| Topic/replies: 652 | Blogger: HKAccie's blog
Trials for local horses this Sunday
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Pause Switch to Standard View It’s that time of year....HKIR
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Report HKAccie November 17, 2017 9:36 PM GMT
I’m going to suggest an early pick for TheWizardofOz in the sprint. He’s been more miss than hit in the top class races and a bit of a flat track bully by winning handicaps off top weight but I think he’s got loads of potential and so I think this season is his chance to shine. Moreira is sticking with him over Mr Stunning too which is a good sign.

The milers in HK aren’t up to much so far nothing has filled the void left by AF and then the Ill fated Rapper Dragon. Maybe Helene Paragon can do that as he looked good on his seasonal outing.

I think Werther will be the best chance of a home win in the cup, but that’s not an original selection as there’s not much depth in that division locally.
Report MrDinos November 19, 2017 2:23 PM GMT
Howdy HK, hope you are doing well?! Cool

I didn't back anything today, just watched. I was very tempted to back Helene Paragon but John Moore put me off with his pre-race comments (HP wasn't fit enough). I've now backed him for the HK Mile at 9-1 EW (SBet) and will go in again once we know who will be running in this race because I really don't know what international runners are going to turn up?! All the vibes are that connections are expecting another big run from him on HKIR day, like last year... should have won. Cry

Satono Aladdin was favourite before todays races but once again he didn't fire at Kyoto and I don't think he is at his best going right handed. He was too short for me before the racing today and still is IMO.

Lucky Bubbles had no luck at all in the Sprint, horrible race getting blocked multiple times. Mr Stunning was impressive but I will be giving Lucky Bubbles another chance, hopefully his luck will change.

Werther made hard work of it in the Jockey Club Cup. Not a great bunch he was up against today and even though he wasn't at peak fitness I wasn't impressed and will take him on in the HK Cup. Backed my old pal Staphanos this morning at 20-1 EW, the Tenno Sho slog in the mud bath was never going to suit him and it's a race which can be put in the bin and forgot about IMO! It's looking like I will be backing the same horses as last year!!! Laugh
Report HKAccie November 20, 2017 10:04 PM GMT
Hello Mr D...I’m well thanks. Hope you’re doing well yourself - quick note on our lad, very pleased with him and he’s taken to fences well. Had a small setback as he cut himself schooling but is back on track. The one that beat him last up when he caught the last hurdle has gone on to better things so we think the future’s very bright as he should be much better over fences.

Back to HKIR

I’m hoping they try The Wizard over a mile, 1400m seems his ideal distance, he’s not quite there for G1 pace at 1200m but he’s a very very good horse at 1400m so maybe he can stretch that extra 200. If not I’m on HP anyway, nothing changed my view after Sunday.

The sprint is between Stunning and Bubbles, nothing else.

Think I’ll need to see the field for the cup as Werther is the only HK option, with Gold Mount a lively outsider unless he goes the Vase route.

The Vase is the same, need to see who is coming from abroad,
Report MrDinos November 20, 2017 10:31 PM GMT
Great stuff HK, really looking forward to see him go chasing... keep those updates coming.

I still don't get Satono Aladdin's price, fair enough the Magic Man is getting the ride but I really don't think Sha Tin will play to his strengths... Tokyo is his track IMO. Tommy Berry seemed very bullish after the race Sunday, Helene Paragon will be primed for the big day.

The Vase is looking like a very competitive race if all turn up.
Report HKAccie November 21, 2017 12:33 AM GMT
The selected runners are announced on Weds so we’ll have a clearer picture then. I did hear Rekindling isn’t coming
Report HKAccie November 22, 2017 10:05 PM GMT
Nominations - some very interesting runners if they come.

MrD - Moreira sticking with Seasons Bloom
Report MrDinos November 23, 2017 7:57 PM GMT
They look solid races HK... the Vase could be the best one of the meeting if all turn up.

I think the owner of the Satono horses has assumed jockey's will ride for him no matter what and puts it out there before confirming with them. First it was Ryan Moore in the Japan Cup on Satono Crown and now the Magic Man on Satono Aladdin, oops... or the Japanese journo's are jumping the gun big time!!

One thing that has been confirmed is Hugh Bowman will ride Staphanos and I'm happy with that. Wink
Report HKAccie November 24, 2017 8:41 AM GMT
Bowman is on Lucky Bubbles too....
Report HKAccie November 30, 2017 5:27 AM GMT
Tuesday 5th Southwell Mr D.....will update.
Report HKAccie December 1, 2017 5:16 AM GMT
Not a good trial run for HP on Tuesday
Report MrDinos December 1, 2017 8:12 AM GMT
Hopefully something to look forward to next Tuesday HK. Cool

John Moore doesn't seem too bothered by Helen Paragon's trial but it wasn't great. I'm not massively worried at the moment, his work on the turf next week should give us a better idea.

Had an EW bet on Tiberian in the Vase after he arrived at Sha Tin earlier this week. Backed him at 25-1 with WHill. He had excuses in the Melbourne Cup and should have finished closer than he did but pretty much everything conspired against him. He beat Talismanic twice earlier on in the season pretty easily on Soft ground and the big difference between the prices of the two horses swayed me. Talismanic loves fast ground and ran a cracker at the Breeders Cup and I should have backed him a few weeks ago... his price has shortened up a lot now. I will have to stick him in multiples!
Report HKAccie December 4, 2017 12:35 PM GMT
Not running tomorrow Mr D, not had a chance to school this week. Doncaster 15th is the target now, non handicap which isn’t ideal, but it’s a start.

Focus now on Sunday!
Report MrDinos December 5, 2017 8:07 PM GMT
No rush HK. Wink

Topped up my Helene Paragon bet after reading Tommy Berry's comments this morning. The John Moore camp are starting to talk about him like they did last year and I'm getting very confident of a big run again.

The draw is on Thursday and out of all my ante post bets I'm preying Staphanos gets a low number... please! Tongue Out
Report MrDinos December 6, 2017 7:34 AM GMT
Praying... FFS!
Report HKAccie December 7, 2017 2:13 PM GMT
Well that wasn't too bad.

Not convinced Bubbles will like trap 1 but Mr Stunning is perfectly drawn, I think Stunning should win but I am still hoping that Thewizardofoz can put all his promise into a G1 race finally!!
The mlle I'm happy with HP, but I'm also going to have an ew bet on Lancaster Bomber - just think he's got the best form in the race, a serial bridesmaid but I am not convinced that the HK horses at a mile are true G1 standard.

The Vase I can't see beyond the top 3 now that Kiseki is under a cloud.

The Cup is Neorealism for me, don't think Werther is quite as good unless there's some give in the ground.

If you get a chance watch R3 on Sunday, NothingIlikemore is running, he"s won 5 from 5 so far and looks a very good horse.
Report MrDinos December 7, 2017 7:31 PM GMT
Pretty deflated with this mornings work and trainers comments regarding Helene Paragon. The work looked OK to me as he's never been flashy but the comments by John Moore and Tommy Berry have got me very worried... it's gone from one extreme to another in the space of a week! That's horse racing. Cry

The draw for Bubbles is not too bad, hopefully Once In A Moon will give him a good tow into the race. Just hoping Bowman doesn't get him trapped on the rail like Zac Purton did (not all his fault) in the Jockey Club Sprint. Bubbles will have to break well.

Staphanos got the barrier I didn't want, obviously praying didn't help with that! Whether it's Hong Kong or Japan he never has much luck with the draw. Sad

Just like Staphanos but in the Vase, Tiberian got the same bloody draw as last years winner. I'm not super happy with that either... really not expecting much from Sunday now but I'm going to have another look at the races and see if I can try and dig my way out of the plop.
Report HKAccie December 9, 2017 3:07 AM GMT
Can't have HP anymore MrD, think there's something up with him.

I think LB will find trouble and be unlucky again, Stunning is in a perfect place to get first run on him and keep him boxed in, I'm clinging to the WizardofOz as I do believe he's got a G1 over 1200m in him somewhere! If it was 1400m he"d be a certainty.

I'm still Neorealism for the cup, don't think Werther is quite as good without the give in the ground

The cup I'm waiting to see what the prices are at the course tomorrow, early favs going in will shorten the fancied runners more so will see what happens.

Weather is going to be cool but sunny so should be a good day out!!
Report HKAccie December 9, 2017 3:08 AM GMT
Can't have HP anymore MrD, think there's something up with him.

I think LB will find trouble and be unlucky again, Stunning is in a perfect place to get first run on him and keep him boxed in, I'm clinging to the WizardofOz as I do believe he's got a G1 over 1200m in him somewhere! If it was 1400m he"d be a certainty.

I'm still Neorealism for the cup, don't think Werther is quite as good without the give in the ground

The cup I'm waiting to see what the prices are at the course tomorrow, early favs going in will shorten the fancied runners more so will see what happens.

Weather is going to be cool but sunny so should be a good day out!!
Report MrDinos December 9, 2017 9:05 AM GMT
Yep HK, not looking good for Helene Paragon... John Moore has only had 1 winner from 23 (last 14 days) and a lot of those horses have ran stinkers. I wouldn't be confident backing any of his horses Sunday... really should have looked a bit deeper before placing my bets but I kept thinking about last years near miss! Cry

Bubbles draw could be a problem but the Sprint is always hard to predict (pace). It will be how well they break which will be the biggest factor IMO. What I did find surprising when reading a preview on the HKJC website, Barrier 1 (Bubbles) and 4 which Mr Stunning is in have never won the HK Sprint since it was moved to the round course... hopefully the stats will be broken for one of us!! What do you think of Blizzard HK? I keep coming back to him but I'm not sure his good enough over 6F! His run in Japan was not bad... I remember Lucky Nine coming back from a 5th placed run in the Sprinter Stakes and then winning the HK Sprint. Tempted to have an EW bet at 18-1.

HKJC Website Sprint Draw

The best placing by a horse breaking from stall one in the Hong Kong Sprint came last year when Peniaphobia burst to the lead and held on for third. Lucky Bubbles’ connections can take heart though as the six-year-old went close from gate one over the Sha Tin 1200m when a neck second in the 2016 G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize.
And then there’s the matter of his big rival and likely race favourite Mr Stunning drawing four. No horse has won, or even placed second, from that berth either.

I don't think I'm going to add any horses in the Vase or Cup, stuggling to be confident with any of them.
Report EastLower Gooner December 9, 2017 10:11 PM GMT
Might go with Poets Word but not wild about the draw.  Will get dropped in anyways but the likes of Werther will get first run on him.
Report RozelKid December 10, 2017 4:36 AM GMT
anyone awake?
Report unclepuncle December 10, 2017 8:26 AM GMT
Missed the earlier races but have had a little bet on Poets Word @ 20/1 in the last. Bad draw but the price reflects that.
Report MrDinos December 10, 2017 9:11 AM GMT
Sort of panned out how I thought it would... it wasn't a great day.

Helene Paragon ran a cracker and much better than what connections thought. He had way too much to do off a slow pace and was never going to win from where he was. HP still managed to get placed... like last year! Cry

I never liked the draw for Staphanos and he couldn't get a good position but he still ran a solid race. The lack of pace again didn't help matters... another winner from the front. It's hard to catch them a Sha Tin when they get it easy on the front.

I couldn't resist a small EW bet on Blizzard when he drifted out to 33-1 (B365) and that eased some of my pain with his placed effort. Mr Stunning did the business for you HK, pretty close at the end... that D B Pin is improving all the time and ran brilliant form his wide draw.

Tiberian ran no race at all, that has happened a lot this season when I've backed one with Peslier onboard! Great win for Highland Reel, he's been a fantastic globetrotter and his consistency has been remarkable.
Report RozelKid December 10, 2017 9:33 AM GMT

The 2016 thread - ffs ! Cry - cant even follow my own advice - didn't have a bet in the end but im a **** for not doing so

RozelKid • November 7, 2016 8:26 PM GMT
Trainers to look out for in the mile and Cup - local trainers who have great records in these races

John Size
John Moore
A Schutz
A S Cruz

Other notable Trainers who have history around there -

P F Yiu
C Fownes
R Gibson
Report HKAccie December 12, 2017 8:56 AM GMT
Finally sobered up...a good day. One of my mates is in the ownership of Vidorra and we celebrated her recent win after the racing. Not a complete write off, I talked myself into HR and the quinnella that set me up for a profitable day, gave a little back but Moreira won the last.

Mr D - he’s entered for Donny on Friday, think he’ll struggle as it’s level weights and it’s his first run for a while, once he gets this first run out of the way he’ll be out again fairly quickly as we need to get his rating up fairly quickly (if he’s good enough of course)
Report HKAccie December 23, 2017 10:52 PM GMT
Mr D - did you see him win at Newcastle yesterday? First up over fences......we’re quite excited by him.
Report MrDinos December 26, 2017 10:08 PM GMT
Totally missed his run HK... again!!! Just watched it and he was impressive, very neat jumper and travelled strongly. He loves this time of the year and another Christmas gift for you and your crew... just like last year. Hopefully he will keep progressing, his jumping was spot on. CoolExcited
Report HKAccie December 30, 2017 10:53 AM GMT
Not too sure how strong the race was but he did it nicely and was his first run for 250 days, he'd missed 3 weeks as he cut himself schooling. The jockey was very impressed, he's up to 123 now and we need to get up to mid/late 130's to get into his target in mid March (fingers crossed!!!), will prob run at the end of Jan again.
Report HKAccie January 19, 2018 3:00 AM GMT
Mr D....Saturday or Catterick on 24th, he’s well. Doesn’t look like we’ll get to the March target now as he’ll need 2 more wins to get into the race, around140 needed and he’s only up to 123 now. Hopefully we’ll have a big race in April instead.
Report MrDinos January 19, 2018 8:21 PM GMT
I've tracked him better this time HK, looks a good opportunity for another win. Would have posted earlier but this forum doesn't play ball with Android devices, only Microsoft Edge works... rubbish! I was tempted to back him at 33-1 for the Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase but B365 are not going NRNB.

Big Classic Mile race Sunday, any EW value HK?

All the best tomorrow. Wink
Report HKAccie January 19, 2018 11:40 PM GMT
If you could get NRNB then that would be best,  it's a pain in the backside as his first run was going to be a lot earlier but he missed 3 weeks as he cut himself schooling so we're up against it now to get him up in time.

His first choice was going to be Haydock but the ground is going to be shocking there, I'd also wait and see how the ground is at Taunton as he wouldn't want it gluey - he ran badly on that before. It's a positive that the jockey is making a long journey to ride him, we want to keep continuity, but all things in place he should win but they aren't machines so it is fingers crossed.

I'll be back about the Classic Mile once I've had a proper look, can't see the fav losing  though.
Report HKAccie January 20, 2018 12:04 AM GMT
MrD - Singapore Sling is my ew choice, he has only had 2 runs and has raced against some of these first up where he was 2.5l behind the 3rd fav giving him 7lb (he was having his 2nd run in HK). that was also over 1400m and he finished well to get near at the finish so the extra 200m will suit and at 20-1 he has to be a value bet. Exultant is a derby horse so I'll be doing the fav with Singapore Sling quinella.
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 9:20 AM GMT
The weather is pretty grim over here HK, I will wait and see how the early races go before having a bet. If he jumps like he did at Newcastle he should win but as you say the ground conditions are a worry.

I was really impressed with Exultant and agree HK, he looks a Derby horse the way he won last time over 10f. I'm not sure about Nothingilikemore and 8f, the form of his last race (2nd) hasn't worked out that well either... but the Magic Man sticks with him, I suppose he knows best. I like your angle with Singapore Sling and at 20-1 that is my kind of price, a negative is Millard's form. Tricky race this one!
Report HKAccie January 20, 2018 10:29 AM GMT
I think Nothingilikemore should be coming in with 6 straight wins as it wasn't JM's best moment on Intl day!! There won't be much pace on so I think as long as he doesn't screw up the start like last time he'll get to dictate the pace, I think both Exultant and Singapore Sling need a good pace so it could well be a muddling race and might not be run to suit. Southern Legend's next run wasn't too bad he was 3l behind fifty fifty giving him 2lb, Southern Legend got 7lb from Nothingilikemore and won a fast diminishing SH.

It's going to be one of those days when you take the early results into account as to how the track is running - I will do a tierce on 1-2-5 combo.

I heard the weather is sh1te, but I think it's only heavy in places at Taunton, I will have a bet once we know how tacky it is......fingers crossed anyway, the only worry is every paper is tipping him!!
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 11:32 AM GMT
Yep HK, I had a look at the speed map and there is no pace at all and agree that Singapore Sling and Exultant are going to be compromised by a slow pace. Lockheed was the first horse I looked at because of his sire (Exceed and Excel) and his form over here but he hasn't fired yet in Hong Kong... he might get an easy lead but not sure he's good enough. Too many questions for me!!! Tongue Out

KR won well last time so it was the easy option for all these tipsters... the weather is my biggest worry, hope the rain doesn't scupper his chances for you.
Report HKAccie January 20, 2018 11:58 AM GMT
He's only had 1 race over fences so he's inexperienced but if he's anywhere near as good as we think then he has to win today getting weight off the top one, he should get better though. I also think he may need a little bit further but 2m in soft isn't going to test his speed that much, it's a step up in class but hopefully he's up to it. He doesn't really owe us anything but it's good to have a dream.

Rivet could be another one that may run well in the mile as he seems to be coming to hand and settling in to HK.
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 12:06 PM GMT
I'm always dreaming HK! GrinCool
Report HKAccie January 20, 2018 12:11 PM GMT
As am I MrD!!

I think we could get done by the weather, my old man is there and he said it's awful constant rain soI expect it will be pretty heavy going
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
His race is the last one on the card as well... bloody nightmare!
Report HKAccie January 20, 2018 4:03 PM GMT
No drama.....
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 4:04 PM GMT
Another great win HK, cruised around and his jumping was spot on... never in doubt. Cool
Report HKAccie January 20, 2018 4:05 PM GMT
Not bad at all MrD.....very pleased!!
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 4:08 PM GMT
The dream is still alive... exciting times HK!
Report bobbyjo January 20, 2018 4:25 PM GMT
Well done
365 are NRNB for Cheltenham , 25/1 now if interested
Report MrDinos January 20, 2018 4:35 PM GMT
Thanks for that bobbyjo... backed him now at 25-1, they need to update the oddschecker table because it doesn't state NRNB. My fault, I should have looked on the B365 website! Tongue Out
Report MrDinos January 21, 2018 9:23 AM GMT
1st and 2nd... great stuff HK. Cool
Report HKAccie January 21, 2018 9:24 AM GMT
Thought we were going to get the winner there Mr D...but still had the quin. Nothingilikemore was just too good....
Report MrDinos January 21, 2018 9:27 AM GMT
Singapore Sling had a great tow into the race but Nothingilikemore just had a bit more speed over the trip. Exultant ran an eye catching race... I think Singapore Sling will be better over 9f and 10f as well.
Report RozelKid January 23, 2018 10:57 AM GMT
Any opinions on Rivet , Mr Dinos , HKAccie ?

I have kept any eye on him since he joined the John Moore stable - always thought it was going to be tough as their milers out there are becoming the world's best ...but didn't think he would struggle to place in all four of his races out there .

Im just wondering what would be the next potential target for Rivet ...I'm starting to think that he could be difficult to place.
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