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unclepuncle
09 Nov 17 07:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 5,406 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Entires now out.

Have taken a chance that Mullins will do the right thing and run Djakadam here rather than give him another pointless campaign aimed at the Gold Cup that he doesn't stay well enough to win.
He finally did the same thing with Florida PearlLove so hopefully lightning strikes twice.

1pt @ 25/1
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Report firstimevisor November 9, 2017 5:55 PM GMT
At 25s that's fair enough though I can't agree about the Gold Cup. I see him as a real stayer.Second in 2 GCs and would surely have bagged another second in it this year but for halving the second last after jumping brilliantly to that point. I'd be fairly certain he'll start off again in the Durkan and then it will be either the Lexus or King George I'd imagine. He's going to be a force this season whichever route they go and I just cannot believe how many people have already written him off.

However, Douvan is my idea of the King George winner, and at 10-1,looks a knock out bet to me.He would need to get a run in beforehand if he's to go there,probably over 2m. Obviously both him and Djakadam wont go the KG route but assuming both of them are sound by Christmas, and all has gone well with their comeback runs, then I really believe Douvan will get the go ahead for Kemptom. If he does, he'll murder them.
Report gpz6316 November 9, 2017 8:58 PM GMT
id share your sentiments toward douvan as a top class two miler has  done well in the past . BUT i dont think the horse is there anymore . yes if he can produce his A game ,but ,i think its gone . he wasnt impressive at punchestown previous to the flop at cheltenham .hes not right mental or physical i dont know but hes not there imo . the old brigade are done also so i will look to thistlecrack gl
Report penzance November 9, 2017 9:59 PM GMT
Djakadam's only won 1 over 3m or further,
he's been beat in the rest.Thats about 11
races.
Report firstimevisor November 9, 2017 10:05 PM GMT
He absolutely dotted up at Punchestown. It was a weak race but he could hardly have won it any easier. Before that he'd beaten Sizing John 8 lengths on the bridle at Christmas. At Cheltenham he went off 2-9 for the QM and lost his unbeaten record through injury. This horse is a monster....and he's also 2 years younger than Thistlecrack.
Report firstimevisor November 9, 2017 10:15 PM GMT
Yes Penzance but he's never been unplaced either when he's completed. Surely being placed in 3 Gold Cups is proof that he stays the trip. If not then there are very few stayers about.
Report penzance November 9, 2017 10:19 PM GMT
4th in a GC,8th in a Hennessy at
Newbury.
Report firstimevisor November 9, 2017 10:24 PM GMT
Ok I'll give you the Hennessy(off 140ish he should have been a cert that day,whatever happened). Fourth in a GC is a place. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind,the horse stays.He'd stay 4 miles.
Report unclepuncle November 10, 2017 10:02 AM GMT
Florida Pearl won an RSA and umpteen Irish Gold Cups but he patently did stay in the Gold Cup - if Mullins had cottoned on to it sooner he might have won three KG's with him. Djakadam seems very similar to me.

Douvan had looked great until last time but given the doubts about coming back from injury plus the unknown trip I couldn't have him on my mind at that price - wouldn't even have a speculative bet if he were 25/1.

Thistlecrack, Sizing John and Might Bite clearly the ones to beat but priced accordingly.
Report woodmanchester November 10, 2017 4:27 PM GMT
Got 33/1 Might Bite RSA (already won) and King George double. Also, 80/1 the King George/Gold Cup double
Report impossible123 November 10, 2017 5:58 PM GMT
I think Might Bite has a fav chance of winning the KG as Kempton suits him more than Sizing John (SJ). Thistlecrack will need to show he's over his injury in his comeback race over hurdles in the coming weeks. As another poster has alluded to on another thread earlier SJ might not turn up if unsuccessful in the Betfair Chase next weekend.
Report penzance November 10, 2017 9:43 PM GMT
how do you know that?
Sizing John has'nt been to Kempton
before,I think.
Report impossible123 November 11, 2017 2:30 PM GMT
I believe SJ needs further than 3m to show his best as demonstrated in his win at Punchestown when just getting up to beat Djakadam - SJ easily beat Djakadam and company in the Gold Cup.

Kempton is a sharp track, and SJ similar to Don Cossack, I believe, might not find 3m and the shrp track to his liking. However, I hope he runs a sound race as his main aim is still at Cheltenham in March, despite the £1m bonus, to retain his crown; whether he turns up post the Betfair Chase (if unsuccessful) remains to be seen, I also believe.
Report firstimevisor November 11, 2017 3:53 PM GMT
Is this the same Sizing John who would have 6 or 7 grade 1s won over 2 miles if Douvan weren't around?
Report woodmanchester November 12, 2017 2:37 PM GMT
Very easy for Might Bite in his warm-up race at Sandown, just now
Report ReaseHeath November 12, 2017 4:18 PM GMT
Mullins sounded lukewarm on the idea of Douvan running in this when interviewed at Navan today on ATR - suggested someone made the entry whilst he was away in Oz! (though that might have been slightly tongue in cheek).

Presumably the same person forgot to make an entry for Un De Sceaux! Happy
Report impossible123 November 12, 2017 5:53 PM GMT
That was a very pleasing performance by Might Bite. I thought he jumped well - a bit exuberant on a couple but never looked like falling; he is still available at 3/1, just slightly shorter than Thistlecrack and Sizing John both yet to make their 1st appearance of the season.
Report impossible123 November 21, 2017 7:51 PM GMT
Thistlecrack is apparently having his 1st outing of the season post injury in the Long Distance Hurdle against Unowhatimeanharry at Newbury on friday week prior to defending his King George Chase crown at x'mas, why? I'd have thought Thistlecrack could do with more jumping experience over fences given some novicey displays last season.
Report harry callaghan November 21, 2017 10:06 PM GMT
^yeah connections of thistlecrack must of been gutted with his jumping winning a king george as a novice walofs

considering he won a stayers hurdle by 10 lengths what is wrong with prepping him over hurdles, i would of thought he would run without a penalty in that race as well
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 November 25, 2017 4:16 PM GMT
First post of this new season and i would like to thank pp for picking wackytabacky in my name on the 6th Nov' winning me matter of time for 6 months, going to be a roller coaster ride i am sure i am so excited i can tell you! Already had Henry De Bromhead on the phone too,Love on my way to work!Crazy I nearly crashed the car,Surprised he was on hands free mind you Wink

The reason i have come here though is simple, i can see only one winner of this race, where is Thistlecrack these days have we heard anything? What is the Irish going to send over? BDM looked good in the haddock mud but will it be bog like at Kempton? Fox Norton? Really? Nah, step up Might Bite, obvious i know but even at 5/2 i can see 2 things happening, his price going south and his competition going West
Report impossible123 December 1, 2017 3:15 PM GMT
Hendo must have been watching the Long Distance at Newbury with a big grin; Might Bite looking increasingly the likely winner, all things being equal.
Report impossible123 December 1, 2017 5:33 PM GMT
Will Thistlecrack defend his crown here? After today, more unlikely than likely is my opinion; he was woeful despite what connections said post race dropping out so tamely after going seemingly like a winner 2 out.
Report harry callaghan December 2, 2017 5:46 AM GMT
you will do anything in your powers to get any danger out of the way of your might bite bet...a deplorable creature
Report FELTFAIR December 2, 2017 10:42 AM GMT
You have make exceptions for Bungle Harry.
Report FELTFAIR December 2, 2017 10:42 AM GMT
to make
Report geoff m December 2, 2017 3:20 PM GMT
Whisper ran a corker in hennessey giving a stone to a very well hcapped hoss would have won comfortably without Mullins charge.ran Might Bite 2nd Chelt and Aintree  huge price providing comes out of todays grueller o.k(3 weeks) massive price. Nowhere else for him to go really.
Report sixtwosix December 2, 2017 8:04 PM GMT
Looks a one horse race to me , Might Bite won his warm up race with the handbrake on , and he looked a monster last December and I for one totally blame the jockey for what happened at the last.
Report impossible123 December 2, 2017 8:26 PM GMT
With Sizing John's aborted Betfair Chase and now engaged in the John Durkan next weekend, and should Thistlecrack be scratched after yesterday's dismal performance, Might Bite could be extremely short on race day with just Bristol De Mai, the only credible adversary, all things being equal, I believe.
Report woodmanchester December 3, 2017 12:19 AM GMT
As fond as I am of Bristol De Mai, think it would be a mis-match with Might Bite

Got 33/1 Might Bite RSA (already under his belt) and King George double with Skybet
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 3, 2017 11:14 AM GMT
It's only a Matter Of Time (see what i did there Laugh) before Mite Bite goes short for this, Thistlecrack i think will still run, fences a totally different ball game to hurdles however has he left his top class form behind his injury or was there just more to work on than Tizzard thinks? Anyhoo he is now a backable price i'm just a bit nervous now so waiting till around a week to go see if anymore news breaks.
Report the bloob December 3, 2017 3:19 PM GMT
what are the chances of Whisper running?
Report ReaseHeath December 3, 2017 3:28 PM GMT
I saw a quote attributed to Henderson on BetVictor twitter feed to the effect that 'we won't ask him to do that and we'll wait for the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham at end Jan'.

He might think differently come Monday and after talking to Walters of course but he tends to err on the side of caution.
Report the bloob December 3, 2017 3:44 PM GMT
thanks, the betting has always suggested a very likely non-runner. I didn't see anything yesterday that surprised me, can't believe that 120+ was available on here before the race yesterday and now down to 34
Report impossible123 December 3, 2017 10:18 PM GMT
Might Bite has shortened to 13/8, probably shorter if Thstlecrack is an absentee. I do not envisage the latter and/or Sizing John (same trainer/owner) running if Fox Norton runs.
Report the bloob December 3, 2017 10:26 PM GMT
I'm surprised to see Fox Norton so short in the betting, never raced beyond 2m 4f before. I'm sure Might Bite will ensure a strong pace, so would Fox Norton be guaranteed to stay?

I see 2 scenarios in this race, if the ground is good to soft or better then Might Bite wins, if it's soft or worse then Bristol de Mai wins
Report impossible123 December 4, 2017 11:02 PM GMT
This race could cut up badly.

With Fox Norton running in the Tingle Creek this saturday, all being well, he'd be an absentee here 17 days later, I think. His owner other inmate Sizing John is also running this sunday in the John Durkan, and with the Gold Cup his number 1 target another improbable runner here 16 days later leaving just BDM a certain runner, all being well.

I'd imagine the participation of Thistlecrack is not a given either post his dismal run in the Long Distance Hurdle. Djakadam and Tea For Two could show here making a field of no more than 7 runners.
Report ReaseHeath December 4, 2017 11:56 PM GMT
Djakadam will surely take on Sizing John in the John Durkan on Sunday given he has won the race for the last two years - so just as likely to be an absentee here as Fox Norton and Sizing John if proximity of this race to their most recent run is the criteria.

Djakadam did run in the Lexus last year only 17 days after the John Durkan and Outlander reversed the from with him - maybe that was due to different trip and ground or maybe Outlander recovered from his exertions in the John Durkan better than Djakadam. In any event, generally you'd expect Djakadam would be more likely to get his favoured ground in Ireland than at Kempton if he were to run over Christmas.

I can see them having a crack at this with Fox Norton if Douvan disposes of him comfortably in the Tingle Creek because that would considerably diminish his chance of winning a Championship race over 2 miles (though his form over that trip continues to be progressive).

Tea For Two will surely run here because he loves Kempton and his relatively small stable will spy an opportunity to pick up some decent prize money in a small field (similar to last year).
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 6, 2017 9:59 AM GMT
Wouldn't normally ask as info usually under the rules tab but


why is this market suspendedWink


It still says
THIS MARKET IS FOR THE KEMPTON 2017 - KING GEORGE VI CHASE. MARKET SUSPENSION INFORMATION WILL BE ADDED ONCE KNOWN.

On another note i ignored what i typed above and had a dabble on Fox Norton 8/1 just before the market suspended after looking at him. Just a small chance this race over this distance on decent winter ground could bring about some decent level of improvement, a fair few horses in the past have found this race to be fortuitous after racing over the min and 2.5 when coming into the age 7/8 regions of their careers.

Still think Mite Bite will storm this though, just playing the market however, jackpot winner is the mighty MB WinkCrazy
Report ReaseHeath December 10, 2017 12:42 PM GMT
I've seen comments this week from Henderson both in the Pricewise antepost preview and his Unibet blog suggesting it's now possible Whisper will run here - so a U turn very much on the cards.

I'd now expect Fox Norton to run too as long as he comes out of yesterday's race OK.
Report geoff m December 10, 2017 3:54 PM GMT
Willie suggested Lexus for Pricewise selection Djakadam @ Xmas or may even bypass xmas. anyway looking to avoid Sizing John
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2017 4:37 PM GMT
sizing john would of been fitter surely today after being prepared for haydock...be interesting to know how ready djakadam was but i suppose only mullins knows that
Report ReaseHeath December 10, 2017 4:47 PM GMT
harry, I saw a quote from him earlier in the week to the effect that Djakadam was n't quite in the same form going into this race as the previous 2 years - the market told a different story today but also read reports suggesting he looked burly (I struggle to judge that from my TV screen).

Just wonder if they're targeting the Lexus with Djakadam more specifically this year - they'd still be hoping Sizing John gives it a miss though
Report harry callaghan December 10, 2017 4:58 PM GMT
quite surprised price wise tipped him up reaseheath if the lexus was the aim, he would of surely have got the nod that the george was the aim...

if he was like you say burly and wasn't ready against a decent opponent who was, then i don't see why the lexus would become the aim when the george was clearly the aim...who knows i certainly haven't played the race but was hoping for a strong line up and he looks a type for the race, whether he is good enough is another matter, maybe that is why they are considering copping out, which will weaken the race yet further if the winner today doesn't turn up either
Report ReaseHeath December 10, 2017 5:19 PM GMT
Well, Mullins is quoted post today's race on Racing UK site as follows:

'We'll have to find a new target for him and I'd say he will go for the Lexus (Leopardstown Christmas Chase, December 28) at Christmas'

I don't think it's called the Lexus anymore is it?

Anyway, there were no trainer quotes from Mullins in the Pricewise piece at all - so no indication from him there that King George is the target. And I think Djakadam could have run in the King George in either of the last 2 years and has n't.

But, yes, you'd think Segal would check with the RP columnist Mullins about the possibility of Djakadam turning up in the King George prior to tipping him and you can't take trainer's thoughts about next race targets as read - especially in the immediate aftermath of their previous run.

No bet (yet) Happy
Report woodmanchester December 10, 2017 7:56 PM GMT
Sizing John a favourite of mine having backed him to win the Gold Cup. Couldn't believe Skybet's 9/4 price-boost! Grin
Report impossible123 December 10, 2017 9:03 PM GMT
Good price indeed. Maybe the bookies thought the distance would suit Djakadam more being the winner 2x but a bit too short for Sizing John as he only just got up to beat Djakadam over 3m in the Irish Gold Cup. Or Sizing John could have improved since last season and/or Djakadam regressed and/or not fully would up as much as last season. Whatever, it was still an impressive performance given the ease horse he beat Djakadam a normally reliable yardstick.

I hope Sizing John can do for me what Don Cossack did after falling in the King George ie his price drifted out to 12/1 here.
Report ReaseHeath December 12, 2017 6:30 PM GMT

Dec 10, 2017 -- 5:19PM, ReaseHeath wrote:


Well, Mullins is quoted post today's race on Racing UK site as follows:'We'll have to find a new target for him and I'd say he will go for the Lexus (Leopardstown Christmas Chase, December 28) at Christmas'I don't think it's called the Lexus anymore is it?Anyway, there were no trainer quotes from Mullins in the Pricewise piece at all - so no indication from him there that King George is the target. And I think Djakadam could have run in the King George in either of the last 2 years and has n't.But, yes, you'd think Segal would check with the RP columnist Mullins about the possibility of Djakadam turning up in the King George prior to tipping him and you can't take trainer's thoughts about next race targets as read - especially in the immediate aftermath of their previous run.No bet (yet)


So, at the risk of contradicting myself, I think the chances of Djakadam running here increased over the last couple of days.

We now know Sizing John won't run so they could achieve both their stated objective of avoiding him and their other stated objective of keeping their 'big guns' apart given Mullins suggested yesterday Yorkhill will run in the race formerly known as the Lexus.

Still too much guesswork though...

Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 14, 2017 5:58 PM GMT
I think Djackadam could easily still rock up here despite him being available on here at prices that would suggest otherwise. Have taken some 44, (went in for the £3 at the 46 but literally was half a second too late if you got that well done whoever you are) have backed him at 14s antepost with a bookmaker so that £3 at 44 will basically be a trade if he goes.

Would certainly have half a chance in a KG imo.
Report woodmanchester December 15, 2017 7:17 AM GMT
Will have to improve out of all recognition on his last run to trouble Might Bite
Report impossible123 December 15, 2017 8:15 AM GMT
I think the participation of Djakadam will hinge on whether Yorkhill takes up his engagement in the Lexus. If the latter does not more likely Djakadam will do battle against Sizing John in the same race, I'd reckon; he's avoided this race in his prime, so why now? Also, his likely Cheltenham target next year could be the Ryanair.
Report ReaseHeath December 15, 2017 2:31 PM GMT
Whisper runs (Henderson twitter account)...
Report impossible123 December 15, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
Whisper in the mix now. A Hendo 1-2?
Report The Dragon December 16, 2017 9:43 AM GMT
on disko at 33/1 ew

had adip on whisper also at 12/1
Report unclepuncle December 17, 2017 5:39 PM GMT
After some rain today the forecast is cloudy but dry and mild for the next week or more so it is not going to be ideal for BDM who looks sure to drift if all the main players stand their ground.

Have to say I'm beginning to warm to the chances of Thistlecrack but will wait until final decs.
Report unclepuncle December 17, 2017 6:42 PM GMT
Might be some rain Christmas Day / Boxing Day after all - still don’t fancy BDM though.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 December 18, 2017 4:02 PM GMT
Matter of time i suppose LoveTongue Out
Report Fashion Fever December 19, 2017 12:40 AM GMT
hope might bite is a decent price boxing day morning will certainly be tucking in plenty will have far to much speed for BDM, and is clearly in a different postcode to whisper on trainer comments, on the likely good side of soft

defies logic for thistlecrack to win after the hurdles run, the pillar last year I believe has bottomed the horse, I won't believe he will  even run till he's at the start
Report ReaseHeath December 20, 2017 12:45 PM GMT
Confirmations:

Bristol De Mai
Disko
Double Shuffle
Fox Norton
Might Bite
Outlander
Tea For Two
Thistlecrack
Traffic Fluide
Whisper

Most high profile absentees Djakadam, Cue Card and Top Notch.

Personally not yet convinced Disko will turn up either despite him being this week's media ramp horse...
Report dunlaying December 20, 2017 12:49 PM GMT
We could be in for a treat. Tea For Two looks overpriced at 25/1.
Report unclepuncle December 20, 2017 1:25 PM GMT
Can't have Whisper going right handed.

Can't have BDM on decent'ish ground.

Can't have Fox Norton at the trip.

Can't have Tea For Two after he finished so legless last time - fair e/w shout but for that.

Can't have Traffic Fluide or Double Shuffle as simply not good enough.

Assuming Outlander stays in Ireland that leaves Might Bite, Thistlecrack and Disko.

I'd get no satisfaction from backing Might Bite at 7/4 even though he is the most likely winner so it's Thistlecrack @ 7/1 and a saver on Disko @ 12/1 for me.
Report woodmanchester December 20, 2017 1:50 PM GMT
On at 33/1 Might Bite
Report The Dragon December 20, 2017 4:18 PM GMT
on disko ew at 33/1 and also bascked ew for gold cup at 25/1

on whisper at 12/1
Report firstimevisor December 20, 2017 5:28 PM GMT
Didn't get any fancy prices but I'm happy to get involved in the same 2 , whisper and disko, today
Report FOYLESWAR December 20, 2017 6:50 PM GMT
not a lot of rain forecast for the next week or so  in the south  ,temps to be around 9-10 degrees tommoz  and getting milder ! quite possible  no worse than  good to soft  come boxing day ?
Report buddeliea December 20, 2017 7:25 PM GMT
Rain forecast on Boxing Day Foyles
Report FOYLESWAR December 20, 2017 7:53 PM GMT
much budd ?
Report buddeliea December 20, 2017 8:21 PM GMT
Looks like light rain between 2-4 mm,but not sure what time mate!!
Report FOYLESWAR December 20, 2017 8:26 PM GMT
yeah seen that now ,cheers bud!
Report harry callaghan December 21, 2017 4:00 PM GMT
disko out of the race
Report ReaseHeath December 21, 2017 4:51 PM GMT
ReaseHeath • December 20, 2017 12:45 PM GMT

Personally not yet convinced Disko will turn up either despite him being this week's media ramp horse...


Mission accomplished for the racing media and the bookies.
Report impossible123 December 21, 2017 9:25 PM GMT
Might Bite is hot, as short as 6/5 but generally 11/8 available. With Disko confined to Ireland could Hendo have 1st and 2nd, but in which order though?
Report Fashion Fever December 21, 2017 10:26 PM GMT
3.55 disks a place sat there when the site reopened
Report FOYLESWAR December 22, 2017 9:30 AM GMT
fashion fever what did hendo say about mite bite and whisper on his trainer comments ? thanks
Report Fashion Fever December 22, 2017 5:15 PM GMT
foyles he commented on a racing post video that whisper had to go to the KG as he couldn't go for hcaps anymore given his ridiculous mark,  but wasn't in the same league as might bite
Report FOYLESWAR December 22, 2017 5:43 PM GMT
cheers ff, just what i wanted to hear !
Report betilyerded December 22, 2017 9:34 PM GMT
Have to say Uncle that your your original post made plenty of sense and is the play i would have made if i thought that Mullins had an ounce of bottle about him.

Djakadam could really have been a player in this race and was no 25-1 poke when you made your selection.

Its now Might Bites race to lose IMO. Unlucky call.
Report the bloob December 22, 2017 9:55 PM GMT
the weather forecast looks dry apart from Xmas day, when there will be a bit of rain. Going currently Good to Soft, Soft in places

I doubt the going will change much based on the forecast, should be fine for Might Bite, and nowhere near soft enough for Bristol de Mai

I really can't understand the money for Thistlecrack, coming back from an injury and very disappointing last time, it's hard to imagine winning a race like this with a prep like that. Even at his peak last year I don't think he would be good enough to win this year's renewal
Report woodmanchester December 23, 2017 5:26 PM GMT
Harry let the Thistlecrack form down too

Come on Might Bite! Excited
Report cvbyrne. December 24, 2017 1:02 PM GMT
Might Bite is a very solid fav for this. He was going to win by 15 or 20l in the Kauto Star last year when he fell. He then clearly had enough to win the RSA by 20l. He then beat Whisper who at that horses fav track and fav meeting at Aintree. I don't think he's quirky to the fact of being ungenuine or a difficult ride, he got lonely in the RSA is all.

I think the Ladbrokes Trophy was a poor race. Whisper didn't improve imo to come 2nd merely ran to form. I see no reason Whisper would reverse form with Might Bite if both run their races.

Thistlecrack could easily come and a ton for his run lto where it looked like he blew up racing fit horses. But he could easily have regressed as many do after tendon injuries. Though this c&d is his optimum imv. I don't know how good his form reads though when reviewing it either. Even at his best last year is he good enough?

Bristol De Mai will probably find this happening too quick, 3m on decent ground at Kempton. Also what did he beat lto. Look at Un De Sceaux some horses can dance through the mud but then are a stone worse when on a sounder surface. Could have improved this season though as he's still only 6 rising 7

Fox Norton could well improve for the step up to 3miles but it's an unknown especially at the gallop this is run at. If he gets the trip he could be a big player as his most impressive performance has come when run over 2m4f in the Melling.

Tea for Two, Double Shuffle & Traffic Fluide here to pick up the crumbs and some prize money.

I can't see how Might Bite loses if he runs to the form he did in last years Kauto and he won't be thrown at the last this time under Nico like Jacob did that day. Fox Norton ranks the main danger if he gets the trip, with Bristol De Mai next if he's improved.
Report Callisto-moon December 24, 2017 7:28 PM GMT
Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry.
Report Callisto-moon December 24, 2017 7:28 PM GMT
Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2017 12:21 PM GMT
Took on the favourite with Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Thistlecrack.
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2017 12:25 PM GMT
Took on the favourite with Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Thistlecrack.
Report Alkeyhole December 26, 2017 1:11 PM GMT
The more I look at this the more Thistlecrack looks a screaming ew bet.

Good winner last year, his hd defeat was to a superb stayer & his return on hurdles was virtually schooling in public.  Huge at 8/1 & I suspect he may be plunged on.
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 3:34 PM GMT
Well done 'woodmanchester', 33/1 Might Bite!
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 4:14 PM GMT
With the defeat of BDM and £1m bonus no longer, will Top Notch be campaigned over 3m next? 100 here, if so.
Report FOYLESWAR December 26, 2017 7:21 PM GMT
yeah very well done woodmanchester
Report betilyerded December 26, 2017 7:58 PM GMT
Calisto-moon

Re Double Shuffle: Twitchy bum time?

Hats off to Henderson. That horse was ridden like it wasnt in a race, let it do its own thing, kept wide and just jump, jump, jump.

My immediate impression regarding the Gold Cup was that he was out on his feet and wont get up the hill but in hindsight the Gold Cup will be a different day on different ground on a different course and the tactics will be different again. What a feckin trainer he is.
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 8:37 PM GMT
I think the winner Might Bite (MB), despite looking as if he was coming back to the 2nd and 3rd at the finish, he was idling infront after leading from 3 fences out. If he could be towed, and only let loose at the penultimate or last fence he would run all the way up the Cheltenham hill, I believe; 8/1 before the King George Chase and 13/2 post the race is an unbelievable price, I reckon.

Either Sizing John and more importantly Yorkhill has to win the Lexus on thursday otherwise the price of MB will surely contract.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2017 1:24 AM GMT
Callisto-moon
24 Dec 17 19:28
Joined: 08 Aug 16
| Topic/replies: 1,246 | Blogger: Callisto-moon's blog
Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry.


i can only think this was a brutal result callisto unless it was just the win lay...still fair play to have such a strong opinion so try and keep your chin up if your not hanging from it, i think i would be and my rope recently is very well usedMischief
Report FOYLESWAR December 27, 2017 7:27 AM GMT
harry ! callisto moon aka moneytree is rumoured to do the oppositt of what he tips i. "i am laying the hind legs off double shuffle " probably translates to "i am backing the ar$e off double shuffle win and place " and when you think about it you would have to put untold money on to win a cup of tea who would have that kind of bankroll ? ........my guess is he backed the horse win and place and  god knows what price he was on here think i saw 150 win market a few days ago ,he has had a right touch on the place market !
Report unclepuncle December 27, 2017 8:09 AM GMT
Definitely a weak race and everything went perfectly for Might Bite - got a nice tow from BDM and jumped very well with no serious errors and yet he was all out to beat two exposed types. Not saying he can't win a Gold Cup and at least he hasn't been made a silly short price.

A load of the runners should not have been there and were just vanity runners for their dumb trainers and owners.

Whisper should never have run as he is rubbish right handed (why not just wait for the Pillar? Sorry Nicky but that was a dumb decsion?).

Fox Norton should never have run over 3m. Tizzard doesnt seem to have a clue. He ran perfectly OK in the Tingle Creek but for the mistake at the first which put him on the back foot and may well have cost him the win. Should have aimed at Leopardstown today or waited for the Clarence House.

And BDM is a Haydock heavy ground small field bully and would have been better off aiming at the Welsh National if they wanted to run him over Christmas as it's a good race for front running sloggers (Carvills Hill and Native River won it under top weight). All the waffle about the £1m bonus doesn't wash - though NTD has a habit of chasing rainbows.

The importance of acting at the track was highlighted by the excellent runs of the second and third who have superb records at Kempton.
We hear about it all the time when it comes to Cheltenham but nobody seems to think it is important at Kempton - Imperial Commander and even Best Mate were classic examples of horses who ran way below their best at Kempton.
Report nocturnal December 28, 2017 1:36 AM GMT
Fine post Uncle.....agree with all of that,form wise surely more questions than answers?

The official ratings pre race (OR)

M BITE 162
D SHUFFLE 151
T F TWO 164
TH CRACK 170
WHISPER 169
B D MAI 173
F NORTON 168
T FLUIDE 153

It will interesting to see what ratings are given following this race.
Clearly if we use the official handicappers ratings,something is not quite right?
Three of the lowest rated horses in the race,have filled the first three places.

For anyone using the OR, this race and the result begs the question,just exactly who is responsible for these ratings,and how can they be so wildly wrong in this instance?
This is not new territory,punters and form students alike,have been questioning the marks given to some horses,and the consequences these inflated marks have on racing in general.
Level weights graded races are different,but the continuing over-reaction to some performances inevitably must spill over into handicapping,about time this was addressed.

Couple points regarding the race,watching it back without the sound,(the modern day commentator has in many cases become a form/race tactic expert),that the front three at the finnish all raced wide of the running rail,whether de boing boing had done his homework,it was noticeable up the final straight how he kept MB away from the far rail.
This looked to be the case in the 3m novice as well,F Windfall on the outside of the field travelled really well before falling,was the ground better a few yards off the rail?

The other point follows on from Uncles post,just how many horses are better going right handed than left?
Anyone looked at their own results over a period of time?,something I touched on last year in the ante-post thread,I think far less horses appear to run to form going right handed,than left.
Not got any conclusive figures yet,any thoughts welcomed.

Plenty to ponder after this race.
Report dunlaying December 28, 2017 1:17 PM GMT
There is not much wrong with the form . Double Shuffle was expected to improve and he did. The winner ran to around 3 lb below his previous best.
Report Swagger December 28, 2017 10:06 PM GMT
I also think Mite Bite was at it a long way out whereas the second and third were held up off the pace. Bristol was making mistakes up top as well so on the face of it, they were probably going a fair lick. Impressive win, well done all winners.
Report FOYLESWAR December 29, 2017 4:16 PM GMT
imo mite bite is better going left handed ,ok i know he was hosing up in the feltham but that was not the best race tbh ,also the undulations at chelt seem to suit better than a flatish track so could improve a lot going back left handed .
Report impossible123 December 29, 2017 4:30 PM GMT
Right-handed or left-handed track,...please do not even go there. It is sufficiently difficult to pick winners on level weight, conducive ground and formlines without bringing an additional factor into the equation; either a horse wins or it does not, all things being equal. Keep it simple!
Report unclepuncle December 29, 2017 4:36 PM GMT
impossible123 29 Dec 17 16:30 
Right-handed or left-handed track,...please do not even go there. Either a horse wins or it does not, all things being equal.



If ever a post was made to make someone look an utter idiot (not that he needs much help) this is it.CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy
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