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largeaction
27 Oct 17 14:49
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Date Joined: 25 Jul 03
| Topic/replies: 29 | Blogger: largeaction's blog
Some interesting contests this year.
Anyone know if Betfair will be offering day of markets from Del Mar?
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Report harry callaghan October 27, 2017 3:02 PM BST
they are betting on it ante post and they have always had day of the race markets so i would be almost certain they will be betting on the exchange on the day...pre entries are out now if you are interested

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Breeders_Cup_2017_pre_entries_announced_see_the_prospective_fields_123#

or at breeders cup site... full entries and draw made monday or tuesday
Report largeaction October 28, 2017 5:15 PM BST
Thanks Harry. Been backing Arrogate from 7/2 on down. Looks like he'll go off favourite now. Might lay off a bit if he gets down to near evs.
Baffert been fairly guarded in interviews which is off putting, but if the real Arrogate turns up the rest will be running for second place.
Report harry callaghan October 28, 2017 10:26 PM BST
yes a very interesting classic to say the least and arrogate arguably the best dirt horse i have seen run was certainly some value at around the 7/2 mark...i haven't played him as i see some better bets on the card tbh...   

arrogate has struggled to find his form since running a great race to win the dubai world cup, that race has looked to take the starch out of him however and there is a reason why you have got the 7/2 and that is he has struggled to find his form since returning from dubai and after running no race on his return he was turned over again behind collected after racing rather lethargically throughout...

considering they only only went a slow 23.76 for the first quarter mile which didn't suit him, collected certainly picked the pace up from that point and came home in a decent final time putting first the good yardstick accelerate away, then finding plenty when arrogate finally consented to run on to win a shade cosy in my book...in all fairness arrogate just clugged on at the one pace

now the thing to consider when betting arrogate is exactly like you say if the real arrogate turns up he will win, you have to bare in mind though the horse was running beyer speed figures of 122 last season in the travers and he backed that up with a 120 to win the classic...

for me though this season even though he ran a great race to win in dubai after the start he had, they were a very moderate bunch of dirt horses and i would say on reflection gun runner under performed on the day as well, neolithic would be considered a group 3 at best so he probably just took care of a very moderate bunch of horses, similar to his gulfstream win in which chrome ran no race...

has he trained on is the question? and i would argue he has regressed and hasn't...the speed rating still only returned a 115 in dubai, he ran to 116 at gulfstream after an adjustment in time on the day...he obviously blobbed first start back then ran an ok 115 against collected who would be considered a better horse at a 1m and an 1/8th but got an easy first quarter and saw it out well from there at a good pace and showed an improvement in form in winning imo

now backing horses who you know are better than they have shown is factored into the decent price he is or we are getting or as like you say he would be even money...he won't be near evens on the day by the way 9/5 at best

as much as i have wrangled with myself in what to do in regards betting the race i won't be playing him and i hate to say that with the man training him, the rider riding him and arguably a perfect set up in regards pace in the race... it isn't because i think he hasn't still got a decent chance and that is very clear, it is because i didn't think he was keen to run the other day and he clearly just isn't as good as he was, we have 4 runs to back that up and all around the same rating, he has also looked lethargic from the gate and a bit dare i say it doggy and not interested racing...

he was closing collected down the other day when the race was over and he didn't do much running after the line and my head is telling me he is struggling to regain his form and at a short price i can't hope that he can return to his best because no matter what anyone thinks about a weak 3 year old in west coast and just a nice type in collected they aren't mugs if he can't run to his best

for me i have gun runner a long way clear and as much as he hasn't beat much recently his times are good and he is looking a top class horse and is getting stronger and stronger in recent runs and despite peoples reservations about him at a 1m and 1/4f something i agree on i think if he sits outside collected or west coast he will have way to much in the stretch

anyway if arrogate returns to his best will he win? maybe...if gun runner can improve just a tad more is arrogate that much better, i don't think so, on this years showing...

will a melt down pace favour arrogate yes?

does arrogate have it in him to find like he did in last years classic if he got that melt down pace to run at and will he jump fast enough from the gate i'm not sure? and these aren't mug horses like in dubai so he will need to jump well

can collected get away with an easy first fraction in the race or will west coast keep him honest at the front or if the pace is easy will geroux take gun runner to the lead?...

the pace scenario is intriguing to say the least
if it is a melt down pace can gun runner get home over a 1m2f? i think so but still a question that needs answering

anyway another great race in prospect and can the great horse come back to his best, is the major question...if anyone can get him back baffert can but can he?

enjoy
Report largeaction October 29, 2017 2:30 PM GMT
All fair points Harry.
I have to put a line through his San Diego run. In the Pacific the early fractions were soft and the track was favouring front-runners.
During the more recent meetings the track was favouring hold up horses, so a continuation of that will help. Obviously if you are an Arrogate fan you need to hope for a pace battle, but with the O'Brien and other Baffert runners I'm hoping we get that come Saturday.
Could be famous last words, but I just can't have Gun Runner at all. The horse has just never convinced me.
Back to Arrogate - definitely worried that he could have soured somewhat. The way horses are trained in the states it seems like when they lose their love for the game they really lose it. That said, he's always been fairly quirky, so I'm prepared to take a chance that his last two races have just been down to a combination of circumstances and that quirkiness. Obviously if Smith (who I can't have at all btw, but his BC record speaks for itself) has to hold the gun to his head from the gate then I'll be expecting the worst, but hopefully he gets the track and the pace he needs and he can grind them down in the home straight.

Good luck.
Report harry callaghan October 29, 2017 8:25 PM GMT
i agree a tad with gun runner tbh large action and even his last few races he has just beaten up mediocre opposition but the times are good and he has always had a lot of scope for improvement at 4 and he is getting really good...he has certainly improved since returning from dubai... i'll be honest this wouldn't be a big betting race for me, i'm hoping it will come to me i was keen to take the whole lot on if i'm honest but the race revolves around the top 4 in the betting but arrogate doesn't step forward on what he has done this season he won't beat these horses 

Back to Arrogate - definitely worried that he could have soured somewhat. The way horses are trained in the states it seems like when they lose their love for the game they really lose it. That said, he's always been fairly quirky, so I'm prepared to take a chance that his last two races have just been down to a combination of circumstances and that quirkiness.

by all accounts when he returned from dubai he lost a lot of weight and they have struggled to get the weight back on him, i hope he can do it if i'm honest

just on the track at del mar the main track was relayed about 3 months ago now and has been riding very deep by all accounts...i hope it'll be nicely bedded come the meeting, we will see
Report impossible123 October 29, 2017 10:01 PM GMT
Lady Aurelia and Highland Reel (no rain) look the two most cast iron fancies at Del Mar.
Report unclepuncle October 30, 2017 2:47 PM GMT
Queens Trust @ 10/1 nrnb in the Filly & Mare Turf my only play so far.
Report largeaction October 31, 2017 1:43 AM GMT
Obviously not particularly happy with Arrogate getting trap 1, and even more unhappy with Diversify being scratched.
Then I started to think about the draw a bit more. Will Smith gun Arrogate to get a pitch, and if so is that necessarily a bad thing. Then Collected is drawn on the outside, which leaves Gun Runner with a dilemma - does he go for the lead? He will have to clear Arrogate you would think, but would he want to clear Collected.
Anyway, on reflection there are maybe more positives than negatives on the draw for Arrogate. The only problem is that the main negative - missing the kick - is a fooking massive one, especially on a stereotypically American dog track.
Report harry callaghan October 31, 2017 1:59 AM GMT
a dog track is exactly what it large action

after a drink this seems the only song appropriate while we ponder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwPb7g_BlXQ
Report woodmanchester October 31, 2017 11:57 AM GMT
Need Aurelia to get my money back after Frankie thought he'd beaten Marsha
Report harry callaghan October 31, 2017 2:32 PM GMT
a brutal draw for arrogate tbh the 2 favoured by the draw are collected and west coast, i do see these 2 horses probably being the controlling speed...gunner runner hasn't got a great draw either like you say it is just whether he wants to track or get in a duel with west coast or collected..it has to be remembered though some of arrogates best performances have been from the inside so you never know

a really tricky affair this but i have a feeling west coast is going to make this a proper test...arrogate with questions to answer is like you say going to have to be used in the early part
Report largeaction October 31, 2017 3:22 PM GMT
The fact that Baffert trains Collected, Eest Coast, and Arrogate makes this even more complicated from Gun Runner's perspective.
You have to assume that Baffert doesn't care which of his horses win (and additional will want to make damn sure that he gets the winner having 3 of the top 4 im the betting), so if Gun Runner tries to get to the front he will have at least one of his front runners get into a duel with him. If Gun Runner is held up (presumably shadowing Arrogate or keeping him locked against the rail) then the Baffert front runners will just slow things down tona crawl.
Need to spend more time looking at other pace angles to the race, or just pray that Smith guns Arrogate and all this becomes moot.
Report impossible123 October 31, 2017 7:52 PM GMT
Not a great indicator of confidence of Baffert being three-handed. If Smith deserts Arrogate at the last moment punters might be wise to jump ship too, I think.
Report harry callaghan November 1, 2017 3:39 AM GMT
just keeps giving and won't stop giving^^^
Report unclepuncle November 1, 2017 8:28 AM GMT
impossible123
31 Oct 17 19:52
If Smith deserts Arrogate at the last moment punters might be wise to jump ship too, I think.



Did the nurse forget to give you your medication.?
Report woodmanchester November 1, 2017 1:11 PM GMT
Banker-rated again but hopefully successful now. 6/5 Aurelia in all manner of large doubles and treble
Report impossible123 November 1, 2017 2:44 PM GMT
Regards Lady Aurelia (LA), if Marsha does not take the bend well or too far behind coming to it LA could be trading long odds-on in-running, I believe.

Highland Reel has a plum draw in 3, and the weather could be conducive too (at the moment).
Report EastLower Gooner November 1, 2017 7:56 PM GMT
Mentioned after the Juddemont that Churchill should go for the classic.

So will probably have a bet on him.

Just liked how he got his head down and kept on grinding....should be at home on the deeper surface at Del Mar but it’s a tough task for a Galileo.

Of the others I felt West Coast was the big improver coming in here and Gun Runner would be tough to beat. He’s won the required races for older Classic horses (the Stephen Foster, Whitney and Woodward are all tried and tested races for the very best older horses) and I prefer him to Arrogate who looked like he’s had enough of racing in his last two starts and Collected who I think is a bit ordinary and just capitalalised on Arrogate’s recalcitrance.

Wouldn’t be overally concerned with Baffert’s tactics..sometimes he hits it out the ball park like with Bayern other times it’s goes south like with Game On Dude.
Report woodmanchester November 2, 2017 12:06 PM GMT
Impossible, I thought Aurelia was hanging slightly against Marsha and will be simply zoom Saturday. Agree, reckon will be odds-on in running! Wink
Report impossible123 November 2, 2017 5:04 PM GMT
I think the uphill finish at Ascot caught out Lady Aurelia (LA). I hope the sharp bends at Del Mar is more conducive to LA than Marsha; LA has been drawn nicely to blast off, hug the rails and gone before Marsh could raise a gallop (hopefully).
Report ReaseHeath November 2, 2017 5:24 PM GMT
^ Lady Aurelia's form at Ascot is 11 winning by 7 lengths and 3 lengths - she got beat at York but the straight course there is flat.

So your first sentence is nonsense on two counts.
Report gpz6316 November 2, 2017 8:51 PM GMT
hmm lady is a short coupled pocket rocket marsha is a galloper . nuff said
Report gpz6316 November 2, 2017 8:55 PM GMT
fillies and mares turf is much more interesting as the top two from last year clash horns neither with a appealing draw but take up the market
Report gpz6316 November 2, 2017 8:59 PM GMT
wuheida with the first time out pieces and plumb draw coupled with the very good form and a nice price looks good to me
Report gpz6316 November 2, 2017 9:00 PM GMT
i shouldve mentioned w b as well
Report FatoteSport November 2, 2017 9:17 PM GMT
Distaff looks an absolute cracker
Report unclepuncle November 3, 2017 7:09 AM GMT
Disappointed that Aidan is running September here - I want her wrapped in cotton wool for next year.

Looking at the Juvenile Fillies I think Josephs filly Now Youre Talking could be interesting from a nice draw @ 33/1.
Report impossible123 November 3, 2017 9:01 AM GMT
I think if these horses eg Rhododendron, Roly Poly and September with the best form and (rating) had been allocated a better draw their prices would be a significantly lower than present, I believe.

I'm looking forward to the Breeders Cup races esp Highland Reel and Lady Aurelia. Any 'live' transmission from 'Betfair' or only from RUK an ATR?
Report unclepuncle November 3, 2017 9:24 AM GMT
impossible123
03 Nov 17 09:01
I think if these horses eg Rhododendron, Roly Poly and September with the best form and (rating) had been allocated a better draw their prices would be a significantly lower than present, I believe.


And the award for stating the bleedin obvious goes to............CryCryCry
Report unclepuncle November 3, 2017 9:25 AM GMT
impossible123 03 Nov 17 09:01
Any 'live' transmission from 'Betfair' or only from RUK an ATR?


The Breeders Cup website usually has a very good live video feed for the whole meeting - that's certainly how I have watched it the last few years.
Report cause and effect November 3, 2017 10:09 AM GMT
impossible123 • October 31, 2017 7:52 PM GMT
Not a great indicator of confidence of Baffert being three-handed. If Smith deserts Arrogate at the last moment punters might be wise to jump ship too, I think.
impossible123 • November 2, 2017 5:04 PM GMT
I think the uphill finish at Ascot caught out Lady Aurelia (LA). I hope the sharp bends at Del Mar is more conducive to LA than Marsha; LA has been drawn nicely to blast off, hug the rails and gone before Marsh could raise a gallop (hopefully)
impossible123 • November 3, 2017 9:01 AM GMT
I think if these horses eg Rhododendron, Roly Poly and September with the best form and (rating) had been allocated a better draw their prices would be a significantly lower than present, I believe.

Those three gems actually made me laugh! LoveLove
Report A_T November 3, 2017 1:28 PM GMT
Disappointed that Aidan is running September here - I want her wrapped in cotton wool for next year.


When they run 2yos at this meeting suggests they are not expecting much next year,
Report largeaction November 3, 2017 10:12 PM GMT
Track seems to be speed favouring today. Aside from that my main takeaway is that the yanks should be embarassed to have a world class meeting at a gaff like this. The turf track is a disgrace (though surely Lady Aurelia should be odds on tomorrow) and how deep must the inside on the dirt be running - surely both situations could have been addressed before such a prestigious meeting.
Report unclepuncle November 4, 2017 1:07 AM GMT
Highland Reel should also be very hard to peg back if in anything like top form.

Tempted to do a perm acca with Lady Aurlia and Highland Reel as bankers with the horses drawn 1,2,3 in the other two turf races.
Report impossible123 November 4, 2017 10:00 AM GMT
Ulysses is out - heat on fetlock. Highland Reel has been presented with a chance 2nd to none; both he and Lady Aurelia (odds-on), a short price double for most, I'd have thought.
Report impossible123 November 4, 2017 10:12 AM GMT
Arrogate's been backed into favouritism, on past credential or has he truly improved since his two defeats at Del Mar? Still a fascinating race with Baffert (Arrogate's trainer) running three, and with Gun Runner, the Crown pretender with the form to boot.
Report woodmanchester November 4, 2017 7:55 PM GMT
Although not the clearest of runs, Aurelia found others too fast and limitations exposed. Disappointing
Report woodmanchester November 4, 2017 8:25 PM GMT
Last four winners 66/1, 40/1, 16/1 and 8/1. How on earth were you supposed to find those? Bookies laughing all the way to the bank!
Report the bloob November 4, 2017 9:48 PM GMT
anybody check out Paul Quigley on ATR? I have not been backing his selections but he's doing quite well (!)
Report largeaction November 5, 2017 12:56 AM GMT
Very disappointing. Arrogate ran far worse than he did in the Pacific Classic on the face of it. The second place finish of Collected would seem to indicate that the race was there for the taking.
Smith seemed genuinely gutted afterwards, so you have to think that the training reports weren't complete fabrications.
Report impossible123 November 5, 2017 9:23 AM GMT
The training reports about Arrogate (lacking sparkle) and Ulysses (not moving as normal) turned out to be accurate similarly Lady Aurelia where her trainer was reported to have indicated the long season and travelling could come to the fore.
Report nocturnal November 5, 2017 11:10 AM GMT
Well done to anyone showing a profit over the two days.

Far too many fancied horses appeared to under-perform,was this just coincidence?

Concerns over the track, by some on here,well reasoned.

Some of those races were decided in the first few yards,track position vital to get a run.

Very impressed by Appleby,articulate interviews pre-race,deserved success.

Enjoyable as a spectacle,probably need to see it live,to really get it?

Anyone been before?
Report impossible123 November 5, 2017 1:10 PM GMT
Fwiw with the benefit of hindsight two things are clear eg:-
(1) Arrogate should never have run in the Breeders Cup at all and ought to have been retired post his two consecutive
    defeats this season.
(2) Churchill ran in the wrong race - he should have run in the BC Mile.
(3) Highland Reel was given an apprentice ride eg indecisive and lacking confidence despite a good draw
(4) Del Mar is an extremely sharp track, and a high draw is significantly disadvantaged.

Anyone backing the European and Irish horses and showing a profit, very well done. Let's hope the next Breeders Cup is run on a track more conducive to horses with proven form.
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