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Paterson92
09 Sep 17 21:28
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Date Joined: 02 Sep 14
| Topic/replies: 991 | Blogger: Paterson92's blog
Harry Angel is a general evens shot but can be backed at 6/4 with C*ral and L*dbrokes ...

Proved today he is the real deal and can do it on any ground, there are far worse 6/4 shots out there at the moment!
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Report impossible123 September 10, 2017 12:03 PM BST
He looked majestic yesterday, but I think opponents would take him on at the start in future races. I also hope connections of Caravaggio allow their charge to redeem his reputation now that his footie is sorted (apparently).
Report lead on September 10, 2017 1:12 PM BST
The Tin Man will be a different proposition at Ascot...never really ridden to challenge yesterday and runs well at Ascot
Report impossible123 September 10, 2017 6:17 PM BST
Surely after his win today over 5f Caravaggio must be back in the mix here - 5/1 best. Will he win? Why not...he's beaten Harry before; at least he's still value if he  turns up.
Report unclepuncle September 11, 2017 2:19 PM BST
So have you lumped on at 5/1?
Report Figgis September 11, 2017 4:08 PM BST
Wouldn't have thought so uncle, as he's only value if he turns up Wink
Report impossible123 September 12, 2017 1:17 PM BST
Whichever way one looked at the 10f Irish Champion Stake (ICS) Churchill looked beaten regardless. If so, would connections still persevere sending him here bearing in mind Winter was only taken out at the last minute in the ICS despite being race rusty? Even when Churchill overcame Barney Roy for 2nd in the Juddmonte he looked as if he'd come to the end of his tether (stamina wise), and was convincingly beaten by Ulysses in the process.

I do not think Churchill truly stays a fast run 10f Gp 1 race; he is better suited over 8f and probably 9f, I believe.
Report ReaseHeath September 12, 2017 1:26 PM BST
The question to be asked is what price will Harry's Angel be on the day? I can see odds against and even 2/1 being available in the morning even if he is backed before the off.

He started last week as short as 5/4 for the Sprint Cup and yet was available at 7/2 (probably for a short time and to limited stakes admittedly)on Saturday morning with less opposition than earlier in the week - drift to me largely on the basis of a spurious racing media campaign questioning his ability to cope with the ground when most of the tangible evidence suggested he would handle it at least as well as anything else in the race (after timing yes, Mecca's Angel anyone?).

I can see a similar campaign ahead of Champions Day by tipsters looking for value in opposing him on the basis that he has n't yet produced his best form at Ascot and connections of xyz horse suggesting that he won't get an easy lead (pacemaker for Caravaggio etc.)

I recall Muhaarar being available at 3/1 on race day when absolutely hosing up in this race 2 years ago despite the fact that he'd carried all before him in the G1 6 furlong sprints all summer.

Harry Angel has improved significantly for every start this year and his connections are second to none in the handling of top class sprinters. All things being equal, I'll back him on the morning of the race.
Report impossible123 October 3, 2017 6:18 PM BST
In outlining his stable stars for some big autumn targets AOB stated likely both Caravaggio and Churchill will be retired at the end of the season, but Caravaggio should run in the Sprint at Ascot.

The present score is 1-1 against Harry Angel, but with his footie sorted - he won impressively over 5f at the Curragh - I'm hopeful Caravaggio could avenge his July Cup defeat here.
Report dunlaying October 3, 2017 7:44 PM BST
Donjuan Triomphant will run well.
Report impossible123 October 16, 2017 6:46 PM BST
Looking more and more likely Harry Angel could encounter Caravaggio with both declared today - what a prospect? The present score is 1-1.
Report impossible123 October 17, 2017 6:18 PM BST
Harry Angel (HA) is all the rage at the moment, and Quiet Reflection has been backed too - why the latter? She does not like good ground or better; Caravaggio is easy to back despite started odds-on twice and won one against HA in the Commonwealth Cup.
Report unclepuncle October 17, 2017 6:56 PM BST
Are you for fuc*ing real.Crazy

Have you never heard of a weather forecast. If the forecast that all the meteorological sites are suggesting is correct (no guarantee of course) then it will be raining all day on Saturday and the going will be soft, maybe worse. That is why soft ground horses are being backed and fast ground horses are drifting like a barge.

The weather and therefore likely going is far and away the most important thing to check before placing a bet - much more so than form, ratings or times.

Stop being a total fu*king pleb all the time.Angry
Report impossible123 October 17, 2017 7:50 PM BST
AOB: "Caravaggio is in good form and will run in the Sprint."
Report ReaseHeath October 17, 2017 11:22 PM BST
Quiet Reflection won the Commonwealth Cup and the Haydock Sprint Cup last year - she also ran well in the July Cup on fast ground.

She gets a weight allowance from every other runner with the exception of Alphabet. Her stable has been in great from for most of the season. And due to circumstances, she comes here fresher than most.

I doubt I'll be backing her but you have to respect her chance and it would n't be the biggest surprise if she won - there's usually a couple of surprise results at this meeting - it's the end of a long season.
Report dunlaying October 18, 2017 12:45 PM BST
Rease is correct. Quiet Reflection has claims and through her so does Donjuan Triomphant. When she beat him in 2016 she was winning race fit and he was first time up . He is now 3 better off .
Ryan Moore reported after the race that the horse should never be run on that ground again.
On the debit side the form for that race can be crabbed but as both first and second have fine wins to their name since it would be unwise to overlook it.
Donjuan Triomphant at 66/1 e/w looks value in light of the weather forecast for this weekend. Speculative so for small stakes.
Report twonky October 18, 2017 1:34 PM BST
Do just Triumphant...66/1 ew at laddies.

I'm with Dunlaying here, but my angle comes not only from the weather forecast, but the jockey booking mainly. Looks to have struck a nice partnership with pj macdonald, 2/2 currently. Short head winner lto in the rearranged Ayr gold cup carrying top weight with nearly 4 lengths back to the 3rd and has previous winning form over further which could be very important come race time. Brando carried top weight hen winning at Ayr, then coming on to run a big race here next time out. Obviously there are reasons for him being 66/1, namely course form and lack of form in group company, but he's improving all the time and comes into the race at the top of his game.

Of the others, Harry Angel is obviously the best in the field, but how many times in a season can you take a horse to the well at the highest level? Would not be surprised if haydock has not bottomed him for the season..Tasleet would be my main win bet, should get his ground and has been running in all the right races this season.Caravaggio is a group 1 horse at 5f imo, despite his cd win in June, be interesting to see how he's raced. Tin man wants it fast, Washington, D.C. Is vastly overrated, Brando comes into it with significant rainfall, but his last run was poor after his Deauville effort and the others are either not upto this class or have been off the course too long to win a group 1 at this time of year.
Report roadrunner46 October 18, 2017 2:48 PM BST
harry angel/ quiet reflection/ Caravaggio 2 x f/c

harry angel/ quiet reflection/ tasleet 1 x t/c

harry angel/ Caravaggio/ tasleet 1 x t/c

small stakes for an interest 4 lines

gl all
Report impossible123 October 18, 2017 7:06 PM BST
Caravaggio won 'two' races in the Coventry Stakes 6f on atrocious condition, but definitely not a 5f sprinter...6f def, 7f maybe; he is friendless at the moment.

Harry Angel was beaten by Caravaggio in the Commonwealth Cup despite given a start by the former; he might have improved since that race as he was very impressive in the Haydock Sprint; his price has contracted into odds-on, possibly one race too many and his stats at Ascot is bad - 0 from 3.

I'd like to see Tasleet win however, that could be wishful thinking - backed him in the Haydock Sprint - unless Harry Angel and Caravaggio do not turn up, I believe.
Report roadrunner46 October 18, 2017 7:30 PM BST
harry wasn't given no start, the horse didn't get out the stalls, you seem to have based all the form around harry being given a head start, that's BS, all season you have thought Caravaggio was the best sprinter, now you have the
chance to back up all that unfounded support you had for Caravaggio, and now you want tasleet to winLaugh
Report Andrew in Sweden October 18, 2017 7:39 PM BST
Harry Angel is going to take all the beating, I can't really see a negative on Saturday. !!/10 with most firms and any odds against is a good price in my opinion, it wouldn't surprise me to see him go off at odds on.
Report impossible123 October 18, 2017 9:25 PM BST
"harry wasn't given no start, the horse didn't get out of the stalls"

How does the above differ to the fact that Harry Angel was way infront of Caravaggio at the off in a 6f sprint race yet finished behind the latter at the line in the Commonwealth Cup?

Caravaggio's win in the Commonwealth Cup was just as sensational as the triumphant win of Harry Angel in the Haydock Sprint; Caravaggio subsequent reversals in the July Cup and de Gheest was principally down to his new footwear ie the inserts - he did not have them in the Commonwealth Cup; he also started odds-on against Harry Angel on both occasions too. As such, with his proper footwear back now on, and odds on 4/1 (not odds-on) he is value, in my opinion. As for Tasleet I did back him in the Haydock Sprint, and he had every chance but just not good enough against Harry Angel there.

I was most impressed with Battaash's win in the 2017 L'Abbaye - he annihilated Marsha (2016 winner) and Profitable - he could even be the best of all the sprinters provided he does not boil over in the preliminary; looking forward to Harry Angel running against Battaash next year (perhaps).
Report FELTFAIR October 21, 2017 11:25 AM BST
Backed Caravaggio each way.
Report unclepuncle October 21, 2017 1:21 PM BST
Not a race I like the look of. Harry Angel looked awesome last time but the ground and wind won't help the front runners so I have done a small win bet on Carravagio and Librisa Breeze e/w.
Report Figgis October 21, 2017 1:43 PM BST
Like Churchill I have Caravaggio a horse that hasn't improved from 2 to 3. He won the Commonwealth Cup by running to his 2yo best then not entirely unexpectedly went backwards. The excuse about his shoes in France is nonsense as far as I'm concerned. He was back to winning form last time but that race was a Gp2 in name only and was in truth more like a Listed race, I have that win 10lbs below his best and to my eyes he was no better than the bare form. He's going to need much more than that level here.

I backed Harry Angel in the Commonwealth Cup and he was beaten fair and square by Caravaggio that day. He won a slowly run July Cup on merit I thought, despite excuses being made for the opposition. At Haydock I rated him a new career peak, 7lbs higher than his previous best. So even if Caravaggio returns to form he's going to need to improve again if Harry Angel is in the same form again. It's another question of whether HA will start to feel the effects of a long season. However, as the July cup was slowly run and he markedly improved last time I would normally expect a horse to remain in peak form under those circumstances so I'm backing him.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2017 1:58 PM BST
i have harry angel a mile clear, however he ran eyeballs out at haydock and to back that up he will be something very special...i have quiet reflection back to her best last time and off a light campaign and in ideal conditions i see no reason why she can't at least get in the money so have backed her ew
Report Figgis October 21, 2017 2:17 PM BST
Harry Angel fell in a hole over a furlong out but not sure if the ground was entirely to blame. It was softer than when he won at Haydock but the times don't suggest it was heavy on the straight. Think he's just over the top but that's always the risk even though I thought he'd be okay.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2017 2:35 PM BST
good old plot that... he really is a good trainer ivory but trained for the day the horse has done it on ideal conditions...it looks very tiring out there today figgis do you not think?
Report Figgis October 21, 2017 3:00 PM BST
Harry, I'd say the round course is definitely what I'd call heavy but no worse than soft on the straight, unless it cuts up further.
Report Figgis October 21, 2017 3:29 PM BST
Although after seeing Ribchester also fall in a hole, harry, those last yards look like treading water. A mockery of a champions day when there was a viable alternative.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2017 3:46 PM BST
yeah really tiring ground, its a real shame as its a brilliant days racing, my confidence is waining on barney just got to pray he can drop the bit but like you say that last furlong is brutal i thought bateel would pick that winner up easy
Report Figgis October 21, 2017 3:56 PM BST
Time for the mile suggests the ground was considerably slower than for the sprint so seems it is indeed getting worse.
Report thegiggilo October 21, 2017 10:28 PM BST
Kirby had a panic attack,very poor ride not even sure being near that rail for so long was good either and when you see how fsr the winner has come back from in the last and he's asking harrys to win a fully 2 furlongs out on that griund on that track asking a lot.The horse is blatently not as good as soft ground,but maybe if ridden differently could've still gone close today,think that's one of the poorest rides I've seen in a while..
Report impossible123 October 22, 2017 1:06 PM BST
HA was never going to be allowed to dictate the pace the way he did in the Haydock Sprint with the presence of Intelligence Cross. Even if he had done so the inclement condition ie gusty wind, would probably mean HA might not have lasted the trip sufficiently to win (anyway), I believe, given where the 1st, 2nd and 3rd came from ie from behind. Also, Ascot is and has been not his course.
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