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01 Aug 17 18:05
Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 7,326 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
A most impressive win by Sir Michael Stoute's Expert Eye in today's Gr.2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, probably the best two-year-old performance so far this season. He was always travelling strongly off a fairly modest pace, cruised into the lead and quickly sprinted clear to win by 4½ lengths. It looked a reasonably good class event (the runner-up and fourth were officially rated 101 and 99 respectively beforehand), although the winning time was nothing special. This performance entitles him to an official rating of at least 110 after just two starts, he certainly looks a Group 1 performer in the making, and his breeding (by Acclamation out of a half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty) gives him a good chance of staying a mile. He has loads of speed and looks a nice well-balanced individual. I would have been interested in backing him for the Guineas at around 12/1 or 10/1, but 5/1 (6/1 in a place) is simply too short a price.
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Report Howellsy August 1, 2017 7:37 PM BST
I made it a good time Jamesp. Very little to find fault with for me but as has been said somewhere else, the pedigree doesn't guarantee Guineas stamina.
Report deepingfox August 27, 2017 9:38 PM BST
Wow. Watched SAXON WARRIOR's debut last to first win, over and over again. Checked through breeding, and could be Guineas and Derby type on that. However looking at the burst of speed to sweep through with jockeys hands more than full at the end imo he is defo the type for Group 1 2yo 1 mile races plus a Newmarket 2000 Guineas run. Possibly Beresford then Racing Post Trophy at season end.
Report unclepuncle August 27, 2017 10:38 PM BST
Certainly looked good - might find a mile a touch sharp next year?

One that took my eye is Eqtidaar of Michael Stoutes. Very impressive on debut at Nottingham.
and a half brother to Massaat who finished 2nd in the Guineas. Possible he might be more a Middke Park / Commonwealth Cup type
Report A_T August 28, 2017 10:46 AM BST
Might not have beat much but Saxon Warrior looks a real beast. By Deep Impact would expect it to be more of a Derby horse.
Report deepingfox August 28, 2017 3:50 PM BST
Thank You PaddyPants and Betfair for the 33/1 SAXON WARRIOR for the 2000 Guineas. None of the more established Ballydoyle colts put up a debut close to that, and he was only just ready for a run.  More than happy with that price. Roll on The Beresford Stakes. This could be one of the Coolmore colts that takes in Guineas and then the Derby. Plenty of those down the years.
Report Figgis August 28, 2017 4:13 PM BST
Looked a big imposing colt. Travelled extremely well and did it all very smoothly. The time was nothing special but can't hold that against him in a maiden on debut. Only negative for me is this is a yard that usually knows when they've got something Guineas worthy, or at least something they think is Guineas worthy. Don't think many of their Guineas types started as big as 8/1 on debut. Always a first time I suppose and he might have passed under the radar but probably more a Derby type I'd think.
Report deepingfox August 28, 2017 4:47 PM BST
I think the stable use maiden races and debuts in a much fifferent way now. They have an unbelievable depth of quality in the breeding of broodmares that sometimes there are two or three bred to be classic winners all in the same maiden, and particularly on debut they let the race sort them into order. This is mow a far cry from getting them hardened to win FTO. Its invigorating to watch, and its best to judge with your eyes rather than anything else. Each of us has thst as our USP for making our selections. Im probably wrong to think 2000 Guineas, but at 33s Im happy with the risk/reward.
Report deepingfox August 30, 2017 11:11 PM BST
Saxon Warrior lasted all of 24 hours at 33/1. Now best at 20s for 2000 Guineas. He has better Debut RPR rating than all rivals left above him in the betting. The all important second run, and foray into a group race will tell us where he fits into the mix..
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 24, 2017 5:13 PM BST
Saxon Warrior looks a Derby horse, still some 20/1 available after the Beresford win.
Report deepingfox September 24, 2017 5:30 PM BST
Still 20/1 for 20000 Guineas. Which is very generous, given Aidan's interview when he indicated Ryan Moore impression on his ability to travel well, and pick up. Went in again, on top of the 33/1 after debut win. For me the Derby is a waste of time bet at the moment. Can see him being a Camelot type. Maybe Racing Post Trophy, defo Newmarket 2000 Guineas, and then possibly The Epsom Derby. The only interest in Derby betting for me would be to double up with 2000 Guineas if the odds were 50s or more.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 24, 2017 5:42 PM BST
20/1 all gone for the Derby, 12/1 best now.
Report unclepuncle September 24, 2017 6:00 PM BST
He defintiely travelled well and has a good change of gear so the Guineas might well be possible.
Report deepingfox September 25, 2017 8:07 PM BST
10/1 for Derby now, into 16/1 for The Guineas.
Report Figgis October 14, 2017 10:56 AM BST
We should find out today if Expert Eye is the real deal or not. As impressive as his Goodwood win was, I have it a good few pounds short of Guineas winning class. He did do it comfortably though and maybe he can show even more today. The general opinion about Emaraaty seems to be that he's priced up more on potential than form but I actually have him as the second fastest horse in the race. He may have only won a maiden but I rate that better than the Group form of some of the opposition. I have him with 9lbs to find on Expert Eye but the way he won his maiden I certainly wouldn't rule that out. If Expert Eye runs to form I'll be surprised if any of the others could mount a serious challenge.
Report Figgis October 14, 2017 3:15 PM BST
Fast time from the winner and possibly he's improved but compared to the earlier times it was nothing special and looks like he probably just ran up to previous form. Expert Eye ran a shocker. I remember runners like Grand Lodge and King's Best putting in a poor one as 2yos so a bit early to write him off but a lot to prove now. Emaraaty was disappointing too. The winner quoted at 5's for the Guineas Crazy
Report unclepuncle October 14, 2017 3:39 PM BST
Clearly a massive 'golden highway' on the stands rail so I'd be very careful with this meetings form.
Such a shame so many top races are decided by the draw.

Expert Eye and Emaraaty were too bad to be true but both look highly strung and unlikely to be classic contenders next year, though maybe
first time out might be there best opportunity.
Report impossible123 October 14, 2017 4:50 PM BST
U S Navy Flag was impressive in the Dewhurst today but is he AOB's number 1 2000G hope? Unlikely I'd have thought given Gustav Klimt would have contested the National Stakes - previous winners were Churchill, Air Force Blue and Gleneagles - if he had not suffered a bruise foot; Expert Eye ran too freely too early today; the rest were much of a muchness, and the form of the runner-up Mendelssohn is nothing special. There was a ground bias for the rails too.
Report deepingfox October 14, 2017 7:17 PM BST
SAXON WARRIOR and THE PENTAGON mentioned by AOB as likely Racing Post Trophy runners a week or so back. My wallet is hopjng Ryan Moore is with Saxon Warrior, if both run. Given his Beresford Stakes Group 2 win boosted mightily by the 4th and 5th bolting up in Listed races since (Kew Gardens today), I remain convinced he is the AOB 2000 Guineas number 1 in waiting. Gustav Klimt drifting with 2 bigger bookies out to 12s for Newmarket even before the Dewhurst today. 2 weeks and we may get the answer at Donny.
Report impossible123 October 14, 2017 7:35 PM BST
Paddies and forum owner are one of the same entity thus Gustav Klimt is 12/1 both, others as short as 6/1; AOB has just revealed Gustav Klimt  has suffered a season-ending injury ie a slight torn muscle, but will be trained for the 2000G; I think U S Navy Flag is more suited to America given his pace similar to Lancaster Bomber.

I believe Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon are both middle distance horses.
Report deepingfox October 22, 2017 10:35 PM BST
Racing Post Trophy decs come out on Monday. AOB nominates The Pentagon and Saxon Warrior as prime candidates, which confirms his thoughts from a couple of weeks ago - along with other runners- as he seeks to break the group 1 season record of 25. Ryan Moore on Saxon Warrior please.
Report unclepuncle October 23, 2017 6:43 PM BST
I'd be really surprised if Coolmore pitched them against each other, though I guess the obssession with beating the Group 1 record may sway them.
Report deepingfox October 23, 2017 7:03 PM BST
I think the days are over, when Coolmore horses avoid each other. The mentality is to win races, and multiple darts to hit the bullseye, US Navy Flag type wins justifies the rationale. Plus they have so many more good horses than anyone has ever had before, that there aren't enough group races to avoid multiple top horses taking each other on. It's so refreshing to see, c/w the past. I think it's a cert that Saxon Warrior and The Pentagon will clash, unless some injury befalls them before Saturday. Plus two or three of the others, in case the fans run poorly, or get a poor run of the race.
Report deepingfox October 24, 2017 12:22 AM BST
'Favs' not fans.
Report unclepuncle October 24, 2017 11:00 AM BST
It would be a bold call and make for a fascinating race (which one will Moore pick?) but I still expect one of the two favs to miss it.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 24, 2017 2:52 PM BST
I would expect Moore to ride Saxon Warrior. He looks the better prospect to me and could go quite short for the Derby if he wins this impressively.
Report deepingfox October 24, 2017 3:26 PM BST
"Dreamland" -------------- Moore on SAXON WARRIOR, AOB will probably have 4 in there, some pace setters, with The Pentagon handy and Saxon Warrior happy to go the quick pace, and get the Brits off the bridle with 2 to go. Verbal Dexterity to threaten at the furlong pole, battling with The Pentagon, but Saxon Warrior motors by on the outside to win comfortably by 2&1/2 lengths. I've been dreaming of the Racing Post Trophy for Saxon Warrior for a month since the Beresford Stakes, and for him to go to the head of the 2000 Guineas market.-----------"Reality beckons"
Report Figgis October 24, 2017 4:20 PM BST
The Coolmore pair are priced up on potential rather than form. Saxon Warrior looks the least exposed of the two but for me he has plenty to prove he's a classic contender. He wasn't strongly fancied on debut and that maiden was quite weak. It seems to be the visual impression of him coming from behind to win that got people's interest, but I don't think he had to show much to win that race. I'm keeping an open mind about him but I wouldn't be surprised if he isn't up to the task. Strictly on form Verbal Dexterity has run a stone better than O'Brien's two.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 24, 2017 4:36 PM BST
Betting ante post on the classics is all about seeing potential before the rest of the market. If you wait for them to prove it on the track then the big prices have long gone.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 24, 2017 4:40 PM BST
I don't mean that as a criticism, I should add I am aware you are referring to the prices on Saturday.
Report Figgis October 24, 2017 4:53 PM BST
Yes fair point. He was 33/1 for the Guineas and now 16/1 so anyone in the business of trading is already in a comfortable position. For me though he still hasn't done anything to suggest he's better than a 33/1 chance.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 24, 2017 5:27 PM BST
I wouldn't back him for the Guineas, they might decide to go for a Derby trial instead as he's going to be a middle distance horse rather than a miler.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 1:01 PM BST
Had a small bet on Verbal Dexterity for today's race. I said he'd run a stone better but that was a slight exaggeration and I have him 11lbs ahead of Saxon Warrior. Saxon Warrior may be capable of better and if he can beat an on form VD he'd be a good thing for next year's Derby. The doubt with VD is although last time out he ran a figure good enough to take an average running of this it looked tough work for him to do so and I'm not sure if he's capable of a repeat, hence the small bet.
Report A_T October 28, 2017 3:19 PM BST
Saxon Warrior looks like a very good horse to me and expect him to win here
Report Howellsy October 28, 2017 3:22 PM BST
If forced to have a bet I too would go for Verbal D as he was able to go with Beckford up to 6f yet stayed on powerfully in the manner of a colt who should get today's 8. However, I couldn't give the performance much of a speed figure, I don't like his draw and it's not a race I have ever much liked as a betting medium. However, whereas it makes total sense for O'Brien to chuck everything at the race to get his record, it makes very little sense for Bolger to bring VDEx here unless he's very confident, as he's already won a group 1 which is at least as prestigious.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 28, 2017 3:35 PM BST
He has shown some class there to battle back having been headed and hampered.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 3:39 PM BST
VD never travelling from the off, surprised he even got into contention the way he was being ridden early. Saxon Warrior did it okay enough, looked like he was going to win easy for most of the race, but I'm inclined to agree with Matt Chapman on this one that Roaring Lion dogged it.
Report unclepuncle October 28, 2017 3:40 PM BST
Not sure who ran the better Derby trial - Saxon Warrior or The Pentagon.

The Pentagon has St Leger written all over him that's for sure.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 3:57 PM BST
Only an early comparison but the time looks fairly ordinary for the class. I'd say if next year's Derby is only at the level of this year's then he'll go close to winning, but he'll need to improve if there are any good horses around. Hard to see him figuring in the Guineas unless him travelling so well early on was an indication that he could've gone faster, but not for me.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 28, 2017 4:05 PM BST
That was his first proper race. I don't think we'll see the best of him until next year over 10 furlongs plus. He's a fine looking horse with a lovely stride with hopefully plenty of improvement to come.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 4:13 PM BST
I have him on a similar mark to Cliffs of Moher after he won his maiden last year. That one went close to winning in what, for me, was a moderate renewal on the day. I backed Cliffs of Moher but the difference is Saxon Warrior is already shorter even though we have over 6 months for him to get the trials in good order. Those on at earlier prices have a decent bet but he looks a terrible bet at current prices.
Report deepingfox October 28, 2017 7:51 PM BST
Beyond pleased with SAXON WARRIORs run today, travelled like a miler, relaxed beautifully, had all but Roaring Lion off the bridal some way out, and then got a big bump from that horse, before gathering it together for a lunge back at the line. AOB mentions starting in the Guineas, that will do for me. Ryan Moore is adamant he has a milers pace, that will do for me also. He is a talented baby, that the trainer only expected to run in a maiden, this year, but who has shown so much, so soon, and thrust himself into the spotlight late into the season.

I understand all those who think he is a Derby horse, he may be, but I have loved his pace and tactical speed from the start, and favoured supporting him for the 2000 Guineas, regularly over the last 2 months.

I'm pleased the majority had the opposite view, and gave me chance to take the 33s, 20s and 16s for Newmarket, for so long.

We could see him turn into a top 10f Colt next year, and the 2000 Guineas could be his last mile race, Which is fine by me.
I have had The zpentagon and Amedeo Modigliani as better Epsom types on breeding and racing styles, be interesting what AOB and The boys think, next season

Overall I think that Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion could be 1-2 at Newarket as well.

I took the 25s post race that SJ were offering on Roaring Lion, to balance the books a bit, and give me a strong hand for the race..

The colts weren't a deep and strong group this year which is part of the reason for following Saxon Warrior, thinking he could improve past them. The betting market doesn't put up much to concern me, and maybe US Navy Flag and Elarqam fill the next tier of contenders.

Dream alive through the winter, hope they all turn up fit and well the first weekend in May., and Ryan rides SW.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 28, 2017 8:07 PM BST
I believe he's their main Derby hope and Moore is almost certain to ride him at Epsom all being well next year, but that doesn't mean he won't have the speed to win the Guineas like Camelot did and Australia almost did.

In a fast run Guineas we'll see just how much speed he actually has because I don't think we have seen the full extent of his ability yet. He could be very good next year with the expected improvement. I think he has more class and stamina than Cliffs of Moher, and he's certainly better bred on the dam's side.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 9:02 PM BST
Personally I'd say Gustav Klimt was thought of more as their no.1 Guineas hope. He started early in May, like so many of their Guineas types, and while he didn't go off as fav he was a reasonably strong second fav. He showed a lot of late speed when winning his maiden next time. It's difficult to know how good he could be from his Gp2 win, as it was slowly run, but he did well to win after finding trouble in running. It all depends on how he comes out of his injury but all being well I'd expect him to be the one that shows them more speed.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 28, 2017 9:11 PM BST
I don't think they really considered Saxon Warrior to be a Guineas horse early on but Moore seems to be swaying them in that direction by saying he has plenty of speed. I've always thought of him as a potential Derby horse, if he has enough speed to win the Guineas then that is a bonus.

I personally prefer the horse I've backed for the Derby to run in a trial rather than have a tough race in the Guineas.
Report A_T October 28, 2017 9:31 PM BST
it didn't hurt the Derby chances of Camelot and Australia - both middle-distance types like SW.

Coolmore's Frankel colt Nelson runs tomorrow in France - beaten narrowly in the Royal Lodge by today's runner-up.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 28, 2017 9:40 PM BST
No it didn't and I backed both those two ante post the previous year but I also backed St Nicholas Abbey and he went to Guineas a hot fav and then missed the Derby. AOB seemed to blame himself at the time but he seems to have learnt from whatever mistakes he may have made.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 9:57 PM BST
Even though Camelot and Australia were seen more as Derby types they always seemed to have shown speed at home (Camelot started 1/3 on debut, Australia evens) with the Guineas on the agenda as a route to Epsom. Camelot's ability was still quite unexposed even after the RPT as he just did enough and did it easily. It took a while for Australia to show on the racecourse what he'd shown on the gallops but his Leopardstown win was impressive, even though many of us weren't exactly sure what it amounted to. Saxon Warrior looks more exposed after this win and, for me, while it gives him a fair shout at the Derby, it's quite a long way from Guineas winning form. The Guineas seems to be have been mentioned more as an afterthought due to Moore's comments, but he has shown a tendency recently to overstate how much speed these Coolmore horses have.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 28, 2017 10:21 PM BST
I don't think debut SP is as relevant this year as most of his horses have not been as forward as previous years and have improved for the run.
Report Figgis October 28, 2017 11:07 PM BST
Possibly, but whereas O'Brien is usually the one eulogising about the speed these horse have, it seems telling, at least to me, that this time he says the jockey is the one who's adamant.
Report Big Black Cat October 29, 2017 9:20 PM GMT
SW does not grab me as a Guineas horse-he's by Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare.  There's a lot of staying power there.

Wouldn't be backing him for the guineas myself.
Report impossible123 October 29, 2017 9:50 PM GMT
I think Saxon Warrior is more a middle distance horse, even AOB has alluded to that. He might get the Derby trip but I'd expect him to more likely be aimed at the Champion, Eclipse and Juddmonte; presently Gustav Klimt is AOB's main hope, I believe.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 30, 2017 1:55 AM GMT
Are you suggesting that they will decide to bypass the Derby due to stamina concerns?
Report A_T October 30, 2017 8:07 AM GMT
I'd expect him to more likely be aimed at the Champion, Eclipse and Juddmonte

Report impossible123 October 30, 2017 9:33 AM GMT
No, I'm not saying that. I think Saxon Warrior (SW) is more likely to run in the Derby than Churchill, however, will he be AOB's no 1 for the race?; 5/1 is extremely short for the race. I cannot see SW winning the Guineas, but I do like the run of The Pentagon (TP) in the RP on unsuitable ground; TP will be my horse for the Derby.
Report unclepuncle October 30, 2017 2:52 PM GMT
Figgis 28 Oct 17 20:57
The Guineas seems to be have been mentioned more as an afterthought due to Moore's comments, but he has shown a tendency recently to overstate how much speed these Coolmore horses have.

That is the way Coolmore want him to talk - always thinking about the stallion book quotes.
At least they haven't mentioned the July Cup............. yet!!!!
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