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cvbyrne.
01 Aug 17 07:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 23 Sep 16
| Topic/replies: 405 | Blogger: cvbyrne.'s blog
Rules tweaking this year

Class 1-3 UK races
€9500+ prize money for Irish racing

Max stake 3pts per selection
Max stake 6pts for Cheltenham Festival races
Quote odds and firm at time of bet
Betfair sp allowed

No taken odds betfair prices
No multiples

Please report total pts staked to date and points p/l
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Report nocturnal December 27, 2017 2:09 PM GMT
2-05 weth Pain au chocolat 0.5pt 10/1 sj
Report Fabulous December 27, 2017 3:09 PM GMT
Kim Muir - Squouateur 3pts win 20’s (Various)
Report Facts December 27, 2017 3:57 PM GMT
^ Obviously impressed enough today, to ignore your reticence to ' cutback ' on AP bets !Cool
Report cvbyrne. December 28, 2017 11:54 AM GMT
Neville Hotels Nov Chase

Dinaria Des Obeaux 0.75 pt 20/1 pp
Report Fabulous December 28, 2017 12:14 PM GMT
Facts, more than happy to continue with the longer term AP bets, where there's a chance of nicking a price, but I have to hold back a lot more with the shorter term AP Bets, where the price doesn't change much for day of race, and there's a few who don't even make it. I'll still do the odd one, but will try to be more careful.

Guys, I'm really struggling to post on here now refreshing browser doesn't work for Chrome any more, can't post on Safari at all, get one go only on Microsoft Edge, it's becoming too much hard work.

1215 Leapordstown - Jetez 1pt ew 14's (Various)
Report nocturnal December 28, 2017 12:36 PM GMT
Yep.....had a few issues Fab last couple weeks,not recognising username etc

WP with W Sour,can I suggest a lottery ticket this week Wink

+57.75
l destination -1
p a choc -0.5

+56.25 /0 IP
Report cvbyrne. December 28, 2017 12:39 PM GMT
1250 Leop

Art of Security 0.25pt betfair sp
Rathpatrick 0.25pt betfair sp
Report cvbyrne. December 28, 2017 5:32 PM GMT
Leopardstown 1220

Spider Web 0.75pt 16/1 sky
Report cvbyrne. December 28, 2017 5:43 PM GMT
Leopardstown 1505

Snugsborough Hall 0.75pt 25/1 fred
Report Facts December 28, 2017 11:01 PM GMT
Fab, I agree with you re short term AP bets. Going to wait until day before race to select a potential bet.
Report Fabulous December 29, 2017 12:23 PM GMT
1220 Leapordstown
The Mooch 16's
Dallas Cowboy 14's
Both 0.7pts Ew 5Places (Various)
Report Fabulous December 29, 2017 12:36 PM GMT
Well played cvb

Not pleased to hear I'm the only one Noc, but at least good to hear I'm not the only one struggling. It's getting very annoying, as you can see by the time I put the bets up for that last race.

Yeah Facts, there's a few races in January I really like,and normally have an AP try, but although I'll be having a go, I'll def try to be a bit more guarded.
Report Fabulous December 29, 2017 2:08 PM GMT
1410 Limerick - Delta Work 0.7pts win 10's (Various)
Report nocturnal December 29, 2017 2:39 PM GMT
WP CVB....Lovely hit Cool
Report GI MAC December 29, 2017 7:51 PM GMT
I'm having the same issues Fab, cannot post on Chrome, safari, I have to boot up my work laptop to use Microsoft edge which allows me to post a few times then it struggles also, real pain.

Haydock 2.10
Emperors Choice 1pt win @ 7/1 (SJ)
Report Fabulous December 29, 2017 9:35 PM GMT
Yeah Mac, not much fun is it?

Relkeel - Anteros 1pt ew 40's (B365).....don't say a word Facts Happy
Report nocturnal December 29, 2017 9:38 PM GMT
2-25 newbury Vieux Lille 1pt 14/1 365
Report nocturnal December 29, 2017 9:50 PM GMT
1-35 hayd Tomkevi 1pt 14/1 sb
Report Facts December 30, 2017 10:13 AM GMT
Fab

WhoopsCool
Report Facts December 30, 2017 10:13 AM GMT
Fab

WhoopsCool
Report Fabulous December 30, 2017 1:27 PM GMT
Laugh
Report nocturnal December 30, 2017 2:44 PM GMT
2-45 hayd Granville Island 1pt b/fair sp


WP GI....game as a pebble.
Report cvbyrne. December 31, 2017 4:14 PM GMT
Cheltenham

Ballyhill 0.75pt 7/1 bf
Report Facts December 31, 2017 6:30 PM GMT
Burtons Well 2.00 Cheltenham. 1pt win 4/1   3 6 5
Report cvbyrne. December 31, 2017 8:07 PM GMT
Cheltenham

Ami Desbois 0.5pt 16/1 boyles
Report Fabulous January 1, 2018 12:07 AM GMT
B/F +152.49 IP 23.9

Wakanda -2
Amberjam -0.8
Shantou Flyer -0.7
Le Richebourg -0.7
Neverushacon -1.5
General Principle -1
She's A Star -0.7
The Mooch -1.4
Delta Work -0.7

Squouateur -3
Anteros -2

Tea For Two +7.25
Kansas City Chief (WNat) +1.4
Whiskey Sour +9.8
Jetez +1.8
Dallas Cowboy +0.56

C/F +158.80 IP 18.4
Report sintonian January 1, 2018 8:37 AM GMT
Relkeel - Wholestone 3pt W 7/2 3.65
Report Fabulous January 1, 2018 11:36 AM GMT
1330 Fairyhouse - Draycott Plcae 0.7pts ew 20's (Various)
1400 Cheltenham - Splash of Ginge 1pt win 14's (SJames)
Report cvbyrne. January 1, 2018 12:34 PM GMT
Cheltenham

Supreme Steel 0.5pt 16/1 gen
Report Fabulous January 1, 2018 1:56 PM GMT
1400 Cheltenham
Quite By Chance
Shantou Flyer
Both 0.7pts win 14's (Various)
Report cvbyrne. January 1, 2018 2:52 PM GMT
+107.03

Oscar Knight    -1.25
General Principle    -1
Space Cadet    -1
Fountains Windfall    -0.75
Baywing    -0.75
Jaleo    -1
Petit Power    -0.75
Kansas City Chief    -0.75
Avenir D'une Vie    -0.5
Thirsty Work    -1
Top Gamble    n/r
On The Road    n/r
Saffron Wells    -0.75
Rons Dream    -0.75
Shes a Star    -0.75
Charmix    -1
Le Riochebourg    -0.5
Dinaria Des Obeaux    -0.75
Snugsborough Hall    -0.75
Spiders Web    +12
Rathpatrick    -0.25
Art of Security    -0.25
Ami Desbois    -0.5
Ballyhill    +6.75 bog
Supreme Steel    -1

Total Staked 109.75
Season P/L 109.78
Report Fabulous January 1, 2018 2:53 PM GMT
National Hunt Chase - Sutton Place 3pts win 25's (B365)
Report nocturnal January 1, 2018 5:45 PM GMT
WP SINT / CVB......Nice Hits

+56.25
v lille -1
tomkevi -1
g island -1

+53.25 / 0 IP

Some pretty poor stuff from moi last couple weeks,work to be done.

Happy and Prosperous New Year to ALL
Report cvbyrne. January 1, 2018 8:02 PM GMT
wd sint, also GI for Emperors

Cheers Noc. Been a messy old xmas week.
Report sintonian January 1, 2018 8:42 PM GMT
well done chaps.

Stayers Hurlde looks desperate. Given his course form, I see no reason why Wholestone would not have a big chance. Conceded 9lb to Sam Spinner at Chepstow who is currently the 9/2 Fav!

Stayers - Wholestone, 2pts ew 16/1, various.
Report cvbyrne. January 1, 2018 8:47 PM GMT
Yeah not a bad bet sint. Draw a line through his Newbury run. His cheltenham course form is ace
Report Fabulous January 2, 2018 2:30 PM GMT
WP Mac, Sint & cvb with winners over weekend.

1440 Ayr - Maggio 0.8 pts ew 40’s (Various)
Report GI MAC January 2, 2018 8:34 PM GMT
cheers, wp winners
Report GI MAC January 2, 2018 8:38 PM GMT
Gold Cup
Antipost
Road to Respect 2pt win @ 10/1 (NRNB)
Report GI MAC January 2, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
^ B3.6.5
Report Facts January 3, 2018 2:00 AM GMT
Wild West Wind ( Welsh National) 1pt win 12/1 B 3 6 5
Report cvbyrne. January 5, 2018 6:36 PM GMT
Lawlers Nov Hurdle

Blow By Blow 0.75pt 25/1 pp
Report Fabulous January 5, 2018 10:28 PM GMT
1320 Sandown - Little Jon 1pt win 9's (Sportsbook)
1405 Chepstow - Vicente 1pt ew 20's 6pls (Sky)
1500 Sandown - Double Ross 2.7pts win 10's (Various)
Report Fabulous January 5, 2018 10:30 PM GMT
**Vicente 18's
Report nocturnal January 5, 2018 11:02 PM GMT
2-05 chep Silsol 1pt 33/1 var

2-45 chep Driftwood Haze 1pt 20/1 var

Posted these earlier,now not showing,here we go again Surprised
Report GI MAC January 6, 2018 9:55 AM GMT
2.05 Chepstow
Emperors Choice 1pt win @ 20/1 (B3.6.5)
Pobbles Bay 1pt win @ 18/1 (SJ)

3.45 Wincanton
Brydon Boy 1pt win @ 22/1 (Lards)
Report cvbyrne. January 6, 2018 10:38 AM GMT
Probably last season for me on this thread Sad lost a huge amount of accounts there in past few weeks to various tiny amounts factoring. PP, Fred, Boyles, Hills. To add to Corals, Sky, Totesport, bf. Friends are placing bets for me now like Blow by Blow. Being forced onto the exchanges. I'll try out blacktype see if they do what they say.

Seems ridiculous given 1pt is £40 for me it's not like I'm anything other than a recreational punter.
Report Fabulous January 6, 2018 11:11 AM GMT
Sad times cvb. It's shocking, it really is. I'm protected a wee bit with my accounts, as I do plenty of mug perms, luckies, accas, and they love mug bets like that, so I don't have too many problems. In fact it's only those mug bets where I've seen a change, with BBright, Bfred, and Toat, all seriously restricting me.

If I owned a firm, and I had a punter with a record like yours, I would just use you as a marker. In fact I would bloody encourage you to use my firm. Seems common sense to me. I know for a fact that firms "markers", and you get your account protected as "safe".

I didn't want to be negative about the thread, but I think it would be my last season, as it's just no fun with the nick that the forum is in. Unless anyone can tell me a way that I can refresh my browser/delete cookies just for this forum without every other site I have open being refreshed too, (I hope I haven't embarassed myself there, and there is an easy way that I'm not aware of) then it is just too much hard work. The annoying thing is that BF know there is a problem, and point blank refuse to do anything about it.

Cork
1355 Realt Mor 0.8pts ew 40's (Various)
1505 Captain Bizarro 0.8 pts win 14's (Sportbet)
Report nocturnal January 6, 2018 12:22 PM GMT
1-20 sand Lord Ballim 1pt 25/1 var

Surprised you have lasted this long CVB,the 3% are not wanted.

Same FAB...no issues until the last couple weeks,seems after the site went down around xmas.
Report cvbyrne. January 6, 2018 2:02 PM GMT
Alfie Spinner, Firebird Flyer 0.25pts each betfair sp
Report nocturnal January 6, 2018 2:03 PM GMT
2-05 chep

on the road 0.5pt 20/1 var
raz de maree 0.5pt 16/1 var
Report Facts January 6, 2018 2:45 PM GMT
Nice one Nocturnal Cool
Report Fabulous January 6, 2018 2:56 PM GMT
Well played Noc, smashing winner

RSA - Livelovelaugh 0.8pts ew 50’s (B365)
1500 Sandown - Third Intention 0.7pts ew 5pls 16’s (Sky)
Report nocturnal January 6, 2018 2:59 PM GMT
3-00 sand Theatrical Star 0.5pt b/fair sp
Report nocturnal January 6, 2018 3:14 PM GMT
Cheers gents.....appreciated.
Report cvbyrne. January 6, 2018 3:15 PM GMT
wd noc with Raz.

+109.78

Rock the Kasbah    -1
Mystree    -0.5
Bishops Road    -1
Raz De Maree    +12.5
Alfie Spinner    -0.25
Firebird Flyer    -0.25


Season P/L +118.78
Total Staked 113.25
Report cvbyrne. January 6, 2018 3:36 PM GMT
Cheers Noc, Fab. I agree this is an atrocious forum, near impossible to post on. I've been ok this season as use google chrome and seems to work.

As for punting, each of my last 3 seasons have been my best to date. This season has taken a bigger step ahead again. But the roi will get squeezed when you can't avail of early prices, the low hanging fruit. I hope this new betting charter is signed up to by most bookies. I can live with getting bets on from 8am dotr to win £500 as that just means losing antepost which is simply not a profitable anyway.

I feel good that profit and roi at betfair sp is very close to my actual numbers, but one or two horses skew that (red devil lads was 70.0 betfair and was 28/1 sp) so I think I'll take a hit next season for sure on profitability.

As for markers, that whole ideal is dead. Accountants want to get rid of accounts that are not profitable and keep the ones that are. Pricing up a card is not important if nobody can take advantage of the mis pricings because their accounts are closed. 

I like how there are now 4 exchanges. Hopefully that and the betting charter can change things.
Report nocturnal January 6, 2018 7:21 PM GMT
WP CVB...... Top bombing once again,1st and second over the last,nice.

Also use google chrome,today has been fine,fingers crossed it improves.

"The low hanging fruit"......you have a way with words.

Every point you make is valid,no doubt there are some that quickly find a niche,and can make a profit,the reality for most of us punting,it remains a hard school of continual learning.
As you say,you are now showing a decent profit,without any inside info,and yet you are now being knocked back ?
The bit that really bothers me,if your running a book as every high street outlet is doing,there is an inherent win percentage factored into your markets,so there has to be winners/losers on every market,this will never change,this practice is so short sighted,yet continues daily.

Fab makes a fair point re marking,my own long held belief is this is happening on a daily basis anyway,one of the reasons I prefer quieter midweek meetings,a whole lot more cash around weekends for those having any useful info.In effect these firms do not need require your help,they are doing just fine,which they should be if they continue with the current over-rounds,at some tracks.

The single biggest change on this thread,is in the opening post,and as touched upon,none of us have really used that to our advantage,yet.That to me is where your future punting may go,short term anyway.

RE fixed odds versus betfair sp,no brainer if your looking outside the top few,I use oddschecker for reference only,whether that is in the spirit of this thread,I,m open to thoughts.
Red Devil is one,Splash of Ginge was freely available at 4 times sp before raceday,the reality on here is that your profit can be way ahead of that recorded.

Hat tip to Facts,some sound advice you have given during the flat thread/this one.
The more I look at the EW bet,the less it appeals,I like your stance.

Not much use to you CVB,give me a while to pm you next couple days.
Report nocturnal January 7, 2018 12:55 AM GMT
+53.25

silsol -1
d haze -1
l ballim -1
o t road -0.5
r d maree +8
t star -0.5

+57.25 / 0 IP
Report cvbyrne. January 7, 2018 10:31 AM GMT
A huge part of the game now is watching the markets, knowing how early markets get skewed by big tipsters. The rp is out on Fri and it alters early markets before it kind of settles the morning dotr. Then Andy holding and hugh taylor alter that market in the morning around 9-10. Then we have the playing field essentially for the rest of us forced onto exchanges or 11am when bookies are willing to lay (my pp account for example will take bets from then, corals too).

So as a result, I increasingly don't make my mind up on who to back until dotr. Shortlist ones and then see if nobody has tipped them up and thus they may drift from the day before price as the other ones get backed due to being tipped up. The way the market reacts there are many punters out there who must do this as often the value on those from the 10-12am gets taken and then it gets to the opening show / exchange markets.

In an ideal world consistent profit made on bets in the 15 mins before the off / betfair sp is the holy grail. It's scalable as the most liquidity is at that time so stakes can increase over time the more your betting bank grows. But as stated before, I feel a couple of bets skew the results (3 wins this season have betfair sp of basically 40 or above Red Devil, Outlander, Nearly Nama'd). Lower roi and more bets possibly seems the way to fill the gap. We'll see, it has been a huge learning curve for me over the past 2 or 3 years. Keeping records and cutting out what is not profitable has been key.
Report Fabulous January 7, 2018 12:49 PM GMT
1345 Naas - Blow By Blow 0.7 pts ew 18's (Lads)
1435 Plumpton - Frank N Fair 10's
1435 Plumpton - Henri Parry Morgan 9's
Both 0.7 pts win Various
Report cvbyrne. January 7, 2018 9:39 PM GMT
Happy


+118.78

Blow By Blow -0.75

Season P/L +118.03
Total Staked 114
Report cvbyrne. January 9, 2018 9:20 PM GMT
Moscow Flyer

0.75pt Mengli Khan 6/1 bf
Report Facts January 10, 2018 2:54 AM GMT
cvb

' ...... Keeping records and cutting out what is not profitable has been key......'
Report Facts January 10, 2018 2:56 AM GMT
^ agree absolutely. Essential ' housekeeping' towards achieving the aim of regular long term profits.
Report sintonian January 10, 2018 8:30 AM GMT
Adding 2pts win Yanworth NRNB for the Stayers. 10/1 with most firms going NRNB.
Report Fabulous January 10, 2018 9:59 AM GMT
Coral Cup - Tigris River 33's
County Hurdle - Project Bluebook 33's
Both 1pt ew NRNB BOG B365
Report Fabulous January 10, 2018 10:07 AM GMT
B/F 158.80 IP 18.4

Maggio -1.6
Little Jon -1
Vicente -2
Veterans -4.1
Realt Mor -1.6
Captain Bizarro -0.8
Blow By Blow -1.4
Sussex National -1.4

Tigris River -2
Project Bluebook -2
Sutton Place -3
Livelovelaugh -1.6

C/F +136.3 IP 15.6
Report GI MAC January 10, 2018 7:38 PM GMT
3.25 Leicester
Hollywood All Star 1pt win @ 20/1 (Koral)
Report cvbyrne. January 10, 2018 7:54 PM GMT
Facts that is the one single thing everyone who wants to improve their punting can do that's almost guaranteed to yield results. Keep records of your bets.

these or the headings in my spreadsheet.

Date    Day    Quality    Course    Race Class    Race Type    Selection    Win/EW    Stake    Place Stake    Odds Taken    SP    Adj Bf SP    Result    P/L    Running P&L    BF SP P/L    Lvl Stake P/L    Position    Distance Won/Loss    Race Distance    Going    Industry SP    Betfair SP    IR Hi/Lo

Last seasons and this season I've kept from the start up to date on it all. The 2 seasons before that I just kept selection, stakes, odds & p/l
Report Facts January 11, 2018 4:48 PM GMT
My column headings are very similar.
Because my selections are bred in certain key indicators, I also include.

Sp F/c
Days since last run
Penalty ?
C winner?
Last 6 form figs.
Report Facts January 11, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
bred in ?? - should be ' based on '
Report Facts January 11, 2018 4:52 PM GMT
Krackatoa King 3.35 Warwick. 1pt win 9/1 WH
Report GI MAC January 13, 2018 7:23 AM GMT
3.15 Kempt
Ballykan 1pt win @ 7/1 (WH)
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 9:28 AM GMT
Warwick 1350 - Big River 1pt 9/2 lads
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 9:33 AM GMT
Lanzarote - Topofthegame 0.75pt 9/1 bf
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 9:43 AM GMT
Warwick 15:00 - Chooseyourweapon 0.75pt 13/2 bf
Report sintonian January 13, 2018 12:03 PM GMT
1.15 Warwick 3pt win Swift Crusador 3/1, var. 1pt win ImjoeKing 9/2, var

2.15 Wetherby 3pt Win Bun Doran 5/4, var.

1.50 Warkwick Duel At Dawn 3pt win 5/2, 3.65. 1pt win Weston Climate 10/1, var
Report Fabulous January 13, 2018 1:06 PM GMT
1335 Punchestown
As De Pique 25’s
George’s Conn 40’s
Both 0.7pts ew SJames
Report Fabulous January 13, 2018 1:35 PM GMT
1405 Kempton - Ballyboley 0.7pts ew 20’s (Various)
Report GI MAC January 13, 2018 2:01 PM GMT
2.40 Kemp
Red Indian 1pt win @ 14/1 (B3.6.5)
El Terremoto 0.5pt ew @ 80/1 (B3.6.5)
Report sintonian January 13, 2018 2:36 PM GMT
Lanzarote - 1.5pt ew William Henry 13/2 car

Shocking day so far
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 2:38 PM GMT
0.25pt I shot the sheriff betfair sp
Report sintonian January 13, 2018 2:48 PM GMT
Saved todays' bacon
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 2:49 PM GMT
wd Sint
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 2:51 PM GMT
Classic Chase

Ballycross 0.5pt 14/1 gen
Indian Castle 0.5pt 9/1 sj
Report Facts January 13, 2018 3:07 PM GMT
Well done Sin.
However, you do prove my previous points on here regarding win or ew. Stakes.

Your three earlier bets were all 3 pts win . They lost

Your winner at 13/2 was a 1.5 ew !!
3pts win at 13/2 gets you a 22.5 pts return. A 10.5 pts profit on the 4 bets !!
Report sintonian January 13, 2018 3:13 PM GMT
So true, though two of my bets did finish second.

Over the years on here i've done eachway the vast majority of bets. Only this year i've decided to do more win bets. After the first few lost today though my confidence was ebbing, hence putting it up eachway.
Report Facts January 13, 2018 3:47 PM GMT
Understand re confidence ebbing if losing run grows.The key here is to have a large enough bank to accommodate a large losing run, so that such runs don't influence future plays.
Good luck.
Report cvbyrne. January 13, 2018 3:49 PM GMT
Fairyhouse - Mallowney 0.75pt 12/1 various
Report cvbyrne. January 17, 2018 7:46 PM GMT
Thyestes

A Genie in a Bottle 1pt 10/1 bf
Report Fabulous January 19, 2018 11:48 PM GMT
1405 Haydock - Midnight Shadow 1pt win 10's (SJames)
1425 Ascot 4 Places - Thorpe 0.7pts ew 28's (Various)
1500 Ascot - Minella Daddy 1.5pts win 18's (Hills)
Thyestes Chase - Sumos Novios 3pts win 16's (Corals)
Report Fabulous January 20, 2018 12:46 AM GMT
1515 Haydock 4Places - Ptit Zig 0.7pts ew 33's (Sky)
Report sintonian January 20, 2018 9:57 AM GMT
2.05 Haydock First Flow 3pts win 3/1 tote/baldies
Report cvbyrne. January 20, 2018 10:49 AM GMT
Haycock

Midnight Shadow 9/1 sj
Walk the Mill 9/1 bf

Ascot

Red Devil Star 15/2 b365
Jenkins 11/2 tote
Kilcrea Vale 13/2 b365

Navan

Half the Odds 6/1 sb


All 0.5pt
Report GI MAC January 20, 2018 1:51 PM GMT
3.15 Haydock
Forest Des Aigles 1pt win @ 12/1 (SJ)
Report sintonian January 20, 2018 2:03 PM GMT
3.15 Haydock Hainan 1pt ew 13/2, 3.65
Report sintonian January 20, 2018 2:06 PM GMT
2.25 Ascot Whatmore 1pt ew 16/1, var. 1  winOxwich Bay 4/1 var
Report cvbyrne. January 20, 2018 3:15 PM GMT
Caroles Destrier 0.25pt betfair sp
Report Fabulous January 22, 2018 12:47 PM GMT
Skybet Chase - Vibrato Valtat 1.5pts ew 20’s (Various)
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