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21 Jun 17 20:26
Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 2,246 | Blogger: jamesp's blog
With Royal Ascot well underway, I guess it’s never too early to start off a new thread on next year’s 1000 Guineas…! (Someone else can start a 2000 Guineas thread if they feel that way inclined.)

This year’s Guineas was the first renewal for 30 years in which I had no financial interest whatever. None of last year’s juveniles really impressed me at any stage and there was never any value in the antepost market (something that’s unlikely to change this year, I fear!). I’m relieved that I wasn’t tempted to get involved, as I would never have picked Winter on her juvenile form, and a couple of other fillies (notably Daban) emerged from nowhere to develop into leading contenders.

There has not been a lot to get excited about so far this season, as far as the latest crop of juvenile fillies is concerned. But there has been one notable performance in Ireland.

Jessica Harrington’s unbeaten filly Alpha Centauri was very impressive when running away with the Coolmore Stud Irish EBF Fillies’ Sprint Stakes (Listed) at Naas on 21 May. This race has been won by a couple of very smart fillies in recent years (Sky Lantern in 2012 and Lillie Langtry in 2009), but Alpha Centauri was more impressive than either of those and is also a more impressive physical specimen at this stage of her career (she’s a very big filly with an impressive stride). Whether she continues to be able to dominate the juvenile fillies’ scene, as her contemporaries start to catch up with her physically, is an open question, but she has set quite a high standard at this stage of the season. In the immediate future, she has been declared to run in Friday’s Gr.3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot but will reportedly miss the race if the word ‘firm’ is in the going description (I guess this will depend on whether any of the forecast scattered thunderstorms hit the track in the next 48 hours): if the ground is suitable it will take a special one to beat her there if she reproduces her Naas form. She seems to be versatile ground-wise, having already won on both ‘good to firm’ and ‘good to yielding’. Looking further ahead, she should continue to progress, as she starts to fill into her huge frame, and her breeding suggests that she should eventually get a mile (being by Mastercraftsman out of a sister to 10½f winner Helike, by Rahy out of Prix de Diane winner East Of The Moon). She’s an exciting prospect, but I’m inclined to wait and see how she fares on Friday (if she runs) before thinking about the Guineas.

Best performance by a 5f juvenile filly so far this season must be today’s Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes winner Heartache. A clear-cut 2½ length win from a big field (including the well-fancied runner-up) marks her out as a smart filly, but she’s speedily bred (by Kyllachy out of a 5f winner by Compton Place) and seems unlikely to excel beyond sprint distances.

Aidan O’Brien’s filly September made an impressive start to her career when winning a Leopardstown 7f maiden by 5½ lengths earlier this month. Aidan’s fillies generally improve significantly for a run, so this was an eye-catching debut performance, to put it mildly. The winning time was slow and the form looks nothing special, but she showed a good turn of foot and could hardly have won more easily. It would be no surprise to see this filly develop into a Group 1 filly later this season, but in the long term she’s bred to be a middle distance performer (by Deep Impact out of Irish Oaks winner Peeping Fawn, which makes her a full sister to recent 12f maiden winner Wisconsin). As such, she does not appeal for the Guineas at around 16/1. We’ll find out tomorrow whether she’s going to run in the Chesham Stakes at Ascot on Saturday.
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Report Figgis June 23, 2017 4:46 PM BST
No, sorry jamesp, I had the Commonwealth figure too high on reflection, as I say I'll have a better look later but it doesn't look as good as I first thought. The front two finished clear but some ordinary fillies close up with those behind.
Report Figgis June 23, 2017 6:34 PM BST
Jamesp, I'd say it was weakish form for an Albany, about 9lbs short of even just average Guineas form. I haven't made any allowances for any perceived track bias but even if there was I doubt it'd be anywhere near enough to bridge the shortfall, just my view.
Report liberator of the oppressed June 24, 2017 7:00 AM BST
I'll nail my colours to the mast the way September has been backed suggests to me this is the real deal I've had a good interest at 20/1 I reckon it is a shoo in today.
Report jamesp June 24, 2017 2:54 PM BST
Well done, good luck with that 20/1 bet, LOTO. September looks a smart filly and has taken the step up to pattern company in her stride. Personally, I wouldn't back a filly with her pedigree for the Guineas. No winner of the 1000 Guineas has ever (as far as I can trace) won over 7f so early in her two-year-old season (not in the last 30 years, anyway). She looks a really good staying type and I see her as a middle distance filly for next year. She should have no trouble getting the Oaks trip, so at the available odds I would say that 10/1 for the Oaks represents better value than 5/1 for the Guineas, but I won't be backing her for either race at those sorts of odds. As expected, the bookmakers have completely overreacted to an impressive O'Brien-trained Group race winner.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2017 3:15 PM BST
I backed her for the Oaks yesterday. With her pedigree and the speed she has shown she is most definately an Oaks filly for me. My only concern would be that she is quite small so I hope she can continue to improve next year.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2017 3:17 PM BST
She reminds me of Australia, in that she is bred for a 12 furlong Classic but has shown plenty of speed.
Report A_T June 24, 2017 8:52 PM BST
to me everything about her says middle distance but she just might do a Camelot and get her nose in front on the day
Report Figgis June 24, 2017 9:05 PM BST
The Chesham was a strongly run race so no reason why any of them should be better than the bare form at this stage. This is often a weak event and this year's race looks no different. I'd say September is about 9lbs short of Guineas winning form. She'd have a better chance of winning the Oaks but only if turns out to be a moderate renewal. Obviously it was only her second race, we're only in June so she could improve. Minding, for instance, was a much better filly at the end of her 2yo year. Although as has been pointed out September isn't the most physically imposing filly. As things stand I think she's going to be overrated in the near future. She's going to be priced up short but unless she improves I think she'd struggle to win races like the Moyglare and I'll be looking to oppose her if possible.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2017 11:28 PM BST
How do you rate her run compared to Churchill's win in this race last year?
Report Figgis June 24, 2017 11:42 PM BST
Jack, at that stage I also thought Churchill had a reputation that he hadn't lived up to on the track. I'd say the major difference here is that this race was strongly run whereas Churchill's wasn't so there was always the possibility he could be better, I think Moore actually referred to the pace being against him at the time. The way today's race was run I can't see how September could be any better than the bare form. So it depends how high you rate this race, personally I don't rate it highly but I could be wrong. If those behind her go on to make the form look better I'll revise my opinion but I feel pretty confident in my rating of it right now. As I said, she could improve, and I've seen worse winners of the Oaks, but in a decent year I'd only give her place chances on that form.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 24, 2017 11:55 PM BST
Yes, I'm aware of the difference in pace and ground and potential improvement in Churchill's rating etc, I was just wondering how many pounds difference you would rate the two of them on just those runs despite everything else.
Report Figgis June 25, 2017 12:06 AM BST
Well I rate today's winning performance 7lbs higher than Churchill's. Not sure that's much help though as I rate the winning performance rather than the horse's overall ability, sometimes they amount to the same thing and sometimes they don't. I'm not into projecting ratings, so a slowly run race will hold back the rating. In a case like Churchill's I'd just take the view that the horse had to be better than the winning rating, but would keep an open mind about how good he could be.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 25, 2017 12:11 AM BST
OK thanks, a positive for backers is that AOB's two year olds may not be as forward this year as usual. September is his only debut winner out of 25 runners so there could be plenty of improvement to come.
Report Figgis June 25, 2017 12:41 AM BST
Yes, I certainly wouldn't want to try to put a ceiling on such an inexperienced filly's ability. I didn't think Minding was a likely Guineas winner judging by her first few starts. Anyone who's on her at big prices has done well so far. I'm just thinking in the near future she's likely to be priced shorter than the form entitles her to be, in my opinion, that's why I'll probably be against her, depending on the opposition of course.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 25, 2017 1:09 AM BST
Another positive is that Peeping Fawn was beaten in her first three maiden races and did not look anything special but then showed great improvement.
Report jamesp June 26, 2017 1:21 PM BST
September is priced considerably shorter than the form entitles her to be. The filly would be a much bigger price if she were trained by anyone other than Aidan O'Brien. We've now got to the point where any O'Brien-trained horse that shows any modicum of ability is automatically quoted at ludicrously short odds for the classics. To put this into perspective, it's worth noting that the same stable's Maybe was 10/1 for the Guineas a few years ago after winning the same race (the Chesham Stakes, in 2011) in similarly impressive fashion. Maybe had been 33/1 for the Guineas after her impressive debut maiden win, whereas September was only around half those odds. Minding was 14/1 for the Guineas after she won the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes a couple of years ago and could still be backed at 5/1 after impressively winning the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile in October of that year. 5/1 September is quite simply the worst value Guineas quote I have ever seen at this stage of a season.

In any case, I still think that September is probably going to be a mile-and-a-half filly later on, and I'll be a bit surprised if she turns out to have the speed to win a typical Guineas.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 26, 2017 2:19 PM BST
Ridiculously short price for the Guineas at this stage after only two runs and with so many contenders to still emerge.
Report impossible123 June 26, 2017 3:57 PM BST
September is extremely short for the 1000G given the minuscule achievement so far. Until an AOB's juvenile filly or colt has contested the relevant races ie Moyglare and National respectively I'd not consider a position at 5/1 at this stage; I'd not be backing her for the Oaks either with a higher than average 1.26 dosage index.

Indeed, Minding was available at 5/1 and 8/1 for the 1000G and Epsom Oaks respectively after winning the Fillies Mile at Newmarket.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 26, 2017 5:24 PM BST
I've told you before, Dosage Index is a load of bollox. If you can see that September is bred for for middle distances then you have a lot to learn.
Report Jack Bauer '24' June 26, 2017 5:31 PM BST
*Can't see
Report bosra shame July 4, 2017 2:18 PM BST
I was most impressed with Churchill"s full sister Clemmie in the Group 3 on Sunday, travelling well before quickening impressively away, recording the fastest time of the day.]. The third horse, Mamba Noire, gives the form a solid look as she was beaten about six lengths in the Queen Mary.
She has obviously improved from Ascot and is begging for another furlong - O'Brien mentioned the Debutante Stakes next where he would pit her up against September. What a race that would be.
Report jamesp July 14, 2017 4:32 PM BST
A nice performance by Clemmie in this afternoon's Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes.  She has improved with every race, and shows plenty of speed for a filly that is sure to get a mile later on. But post-race quotes of 8/1 for the Guineas are, of course, prohibitively short and provide further evidence (if it were needed) that all the value in these classic ante-post markets has completely evaporated. It's a shame - I used to love the challenge of picking out fillies for the 1000 Guineas, but Aidan O'Brien and the bookmakers have made it impossible to get any sort of value, and I can't see myself getting involved in these markets again for the foreseeable future.
Report Figgis July 14, 2017 4:42 PM BST
I had Clemmie 1lb ahead of September going into today's race and still have her on the same mark afterwards, so reckon at the moment she needs to improve a fair bit to win a Guineas. Jamesp, at least with the O'Brien situation it creates value elsewhere, as with Sky Lantern a few years ago.
Report unclepuncle July 19, 2017 2:01 PM BST
A very nice debut by Poetic Charm on Saturday beating a Coolmore favourite.

A Dubawi half-sister to Teofilo so she has the breeding to be very smart.

Obviously Godolphin have a lamentable record with their own two year olds in recent seasons but I guess that's why she is quoted at 33/1 as opposed to half that if O'Brien trained her.

I've had a small interest @ 33/1
Report ffs July 29, 2017 11:43 PM BST
For me, day-of-race with Alpha Centauri if there's any give in the ground - she's such a specimen it's hardly believable. Will be a good price too.
Report unclepuncle August 11, 2017 1:19 PM BST
Well Poetic Charm's maiden has worked out extremely well and she gets the chance to enhance her Guineas claim tomorrow in the Sweet Solera over the same C&D.
Bit worried about the ground - officially soft with maybe some light rain this evening, but hopefully it shouldn't be too bad. If it was soft I'd hope they withdraw her.

Have taken some 9/2 for tomorrow so fingers crossed.
Report Paterson92 August 19, 2017 8:21 PM BST
Happily vs September tomorrow at the Curragh ... interesting!
Report Figgis August 20, 2017 3:31 PM BST
I disagree with the Morny market as I have Nyaleti ahead of Different League. For me Nyaleti put up a career best last time, improving 12lbs on her previous efforts. The trouble with Johnston's runners is I find they can improve as much as a stone on one run then regress 20lbs+ next time, so I usually require a bit more value where that yard's runners are concerned, but I think that's on offer at these prices and if she runs to form she'll be difficult to beat. Tantheem looks the one with the most obvious potential, she has improved with every run and could improve again but I think she'll need to.
Report Figgis August 20, 2017 3:40 PM BST
Nyaleti never really travelling today and on reflection I think I future I'll just put a line through Johnston's runners and take it on the chin when they pop up Laugh
Report Figgis August 20, 2017 3:40 PM BST
*in future
Report clayfield1 August 20, 2017 4:38 PM BST
Always Trying?
Report dyno-layer August 22, 2017 8:50 AM BST
POLYDREAM : 2yo (08Apr15 b f)
TrainerF Head
OwnerWertheimer & Frere
SireOasis Dream (GB) (7.5f)
DamPolygreen (FR)
Dam's SireGreen Tune (USA) (10.2f)
BreederWertheimer Et Frere.

What were your thoughts on this Filly who won in Deauville at the weekend.

Visually it looked a fabulous performance.

Currently 20/1 for the race under discussion
Report Figgis September 10, 2017 3:20 PM BST
O'Brien chucking a load more at the Moyglare but I'm surprised Moore is on Clemmie. Up until the Debutante I had Happily as Coolmore's best filly so far. I know excuses were made for the beaten runners because of the ground, which is possible, but I thought Magical won on merit. Until proven otherwise I'm taking the form at face value and I have her the highest rated filly so far. 4lbs ahead of Happily, 7 ahead of Clemmie, 8 ahead of September and 9 ahead of Alpha Centauri. Up to now I have her the only filly rated high enough to just about win an ordinary Guineas. Some of these fillies can improve unexpectedly, as Minding showed when turning around the form with Ballydoyle a couple of years ago, but on past form I think Magical should be fav so I've backed her.
Report Figgis September 10, 2017 3:21 PM BST
And now she is fav anyway as Clemmie withdrawn Whoops
Report Figgis September 11, 2017 1:16 AM BST
I've rated the race that Magical pretty much ran to form, just 1lb below her Debutante win, with Happily improving 3lbs. Personally I'd take Magical as the better prospect as I thought she showed the more natural ability and just got tired late on. She might be a better prospect for the Oaks than the Guineas. I won't be backing either of them ante post but still think this and the Debutante is the best 2yo filly form on offer so far. We've had a couple of above average Guineas winners recently and these two certainly aren't that good but if training on I reckon this form would see them placed in a good Guineas and maybe even fighting out the finish of a moderate renewal. Hopefully though we might see something better before the end of the season.
Report dyno-layer September 14, 2017 7:38 AM BST
LAURENS puts the collateral formline of POLYDREAM into focus today in the MAY HILL.
Report dyno-layer September 14, 2017 7:32 PM BST
Fair enough performances today from both of the Burke fillies.

Roll on the Cheveley park
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 14, 2017 8:44 PM BST
I have backed Magical for the Oaks. Hopefully she can go one better than her sister Rhododendron who I also backed at this time last year.
Report impossible123 September 14, 2017 9:17 PM BST
The one I like Alpha Centauri has gone down the plug hole - she did not stay the Moyglare distance in the soft - despite going like a winner 2f out. Thus very, very unlikely will stay the Guineas 8f; Clemmie cannot do soft/heavy going so an extra risk backing antepost; Magical and Happily I do not think is good enough. But I do like September despite two successive defeats by her stablemates since back from short rest due (1st) race rusty and (2nd) soft/heavy going.
Report Lance in France September 15, 2017 9:53 AM BST
Glad someone mentioned September. Whilst it's looking increasingly unlikely she will be speedy enough for the Guineas, I'm still all over her for The Oaks. Can't believe she has been shunted out to 33/1 in some places. Getting outpaced over 7 furlongs by the horses that have beaten her, she was certainly not embarrassed and must surely come into her own over 12 furlongs looking at her pedigree. I'm thinking AOB had her under cooked for the last 2 races (he admits to the first one) with her building up to a stab at the fillies mile. If her goes well there all roads lead to Epsom - well in my mind anyway!
Report unclepuncle September 15, 2017 10:55 AM BST
Totally agree about September. Just watched the Moyglare for the first time and she was very tenderly handled - Coolmore obviously happy to get a Group1 for one of their other runners.

Can still see her being a player in the Guineas too, but her pedigree definitely suggests the Oaks trip will be suitable. Considering she was about 10/1 after the Chesham the 33/1 is way too tempting so have played her in a single and doubled with Buveur D'Air in the Champion Hurdle @ 7/2.Grin
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 15, 2017 1:44 PM BST
33/1 is a big price considering her pedigree when Happily and Clemmie who would be doubtful stayers are shorter prices.
Report jamesp September 30, 2017 12:41 PM BST
Given that Clemmie probably wants faster ground, I'd rather be with Threading (at the prices) in today's Cheveley Park Stakes. It takes a smart filly to win the Lowther on just her second career start, and with normal improvement she should run a big race today (if in the same form as at York). Looking further ahead, there must be a doubt about Threading getting a mile next season, as she's by the speed influence Exceed And Excel. Not impossible though.
Report unclepuncle September 30, 2017 2:31 PM BST
Impressive enough from Clemmie - surprised 5/1 was available after the race.Grin
Report unclepuncle September 30, 2017 2:32 PM BST
Hope they don't go the Breeders Cup though.
Report jamesp September 30, 2017 5:41 PM BST
Yes, it was hard not to be impressed with Clemmie today. Quickened up nicely and was pulling away at the end. She'll probably be even better over 7f and a mile on faster ground. Definitely in pole position for the Guineas at this stage, but I wouldn't want to be taking any short prices about her, so I won't be having any financial interest in next year's race.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 5:56 PM BST
I have Clemmie improving 7lbs on her previous best but that still only puts her on the same mark I have for Magical, with Happily a further pound behind. So I think at 4/1 she is well underpriced. Magical and Happily both out tomorrow but not sure what to expect there after both having a few hard races. It will all depend on which makes the most progress before the spring. None of them look world beaters so all are vulnerable to something making significant improvement, as Winter did this year.
Report jamesp September 30, 2017 9:28 PM BST
Polydream is a worthy favourite tomorrow in the Prix Marcel Boussac, and it will be no surprise if she manages to beat Magical. She was a very comfortable winner over 7f last time and should get a mile next year. 20/1 was a fair price for the Guineas after her Prix du Calvados win, but the Wertheimers tend to keep their classic contenders at home for the French classics, so I wouldn't be in any rush to back her for the 1000 Guineas unless she wins well tomorrow and her connections commit to Newmarket.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 9:41 PM BST
I have Polydream's latest win as much as 11lbs below Magical's best, I didn't think it was much of a race, although I wouldn't rule out her being a bit better than the bare form. Only the tough recent campaign of Magical gives me a doubt but will probably see how she looks in the preliminaries.
Report jamesp September 30, 2017 9:56 PM BST
I rate Polydream's Gr.3 Prix du Calvados form a few pounds better than yesterday's Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes form. Even allowing for the possibility that the runner-up Nyaleti (OR 110) may have been a bit below her best in the Rockfel, I reckon this puts Polydream right up there with the Moyglare fillies (at or near the top of the ratings). A mile might be as far as she wants to go at this stage of her career, but she looks a top prospect.
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 10:14 PM BST
Yes I also rate Polydream higher than the Rockfel. The Rockfel was run at a slow pace so can't be totally confident of getting a true handle on it but I'm rating it as pretty poor form for the class.
Report jamesp September 30, 2017 10:33 PM BST
I take your point about the slow pace, Figgis, but I think the bare form of the Rockfel is quite solid (the progressive winner has improved with every race this season, the runner-up is a solid yardstick, the 3rd and 4th were both unbeaten going into the race, and the fifth had been runner-up to Clemmie earlier in the season) - I would grade this year's renewal of the Rockfel as a Gr.3-class race (below its official Gr.2 status).
Report Figgis September 30, 2017 10:49 PM BST
Yes, I could've underrated it due to the slow pace so it will be interesting to see how the form holds up in future. The only runner from the race that I previously rated highly was the second, but like so many Johnston runners her form seemed to fall off a cliff.
Report jamesp October 1, 2017 10:46 AM BST
Yes, Threading was another example in the Cheveley Park. Reportedly in good form beforehand and well supported, but she ran a lifeless race, well below her Lowther form.
Report Figgis October 1, 2017 12:18 PM BST
Decided to back Magical anyway. Possibly her last two races will start to take their toll but I would still make her an evens chance. She's as good as O'Brien's last two winners of this event were at the same stage. If she runs to form I think whatever beats her will have to run near to a Guineas winning effort.
Report FOYLESWAR October 1, 2017 12:32 PM BST
regarding the marcel boussac today ,one that interests me is soustraction the "2nd string" has won over the course and distance in soft ground is a big price at around 12s and interesting that the owners are aiming 2 bullets at the race having also the fav polydream  soulstraction bet heds efaadah pretty comfortably over cd 4 weeks ago reversing form with that horse after a 3 lengths  beating when both horses were making their  debut ,what i find interesting is that freddy head said after efaadahs debut win !"she is a very very good filly and i dont think i have trained many better than her(glowing praise indeed from someone who has trained a few half decent fillysWink ,she could turn out to be an exceptional filly. soustraction beat her comfortably over a mile and available at dubble figgas .may be he was over egging his filly but soustraction at 12s shops and hopefully bigger on here will do for me .


Report FOYLESWAR October 1, 2017 12:34 PM BST
soustraction beat heads filly^^
Report jamesp October 1, 2017 1:16 PM BST
Well, Polydream and Magical finished close together - no surprise there - but I wasn't expecting the Godolphin filly to step up markedly on previous form (I guess, getting first run was a help!). Not a great race.
Report jamesp October 1, 2017 1:20 PM BST
Wild Illusion's dam (by Monsun) won over 2 miles, and she looks an out-and-out stayer/galloper, so I doubt if she will have the speed to win a Guineas...
Report Figgis October 1, 2017 1:22 PM BST
No excuses for Magical on the day. Either that was a very good race, which I doubt, or I've vastly overrated Magical's form, or Magical ran below her best. For me, there is too much evidence that Magical's previous form was decent so I reckon she was below par today, which was always a doubt. I wouldn't write her off for the Guineas and more so the Oaks on that run.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 1, 2017 1:38 PM BST
Ride on Polydream was different as the french geezer on RUK mentioned you stay or you don't it didn't be nice if if had been closer to the action mind you. Very much doubt will be Newmarket next year + not good enough. OOO LA la.
Report Figgis October 1, 2017 1:44 PM BST
Interesting to see how Happily gets on next. I have her Moyglare win ahead of this lot but the extra furlong is an unknown. At the time I thought Happily had a harder race than Magical but will only find out how well she's taken it when she runs.
Report Figgis October 3, 2017 7:07 PM BST
After more time I've changed my rating for Clemmie, the fast time Cambridgeshire was confusing the issue. I have Clemmie 5lbs ahead of Magical's best. On the clock I'd say she's already good enough to take an average Guineas so she's justifiably favourite. Still not a price that would appeal to me though as I've seen too many fillies go the wrong way after their 2yo career.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 13, 2017 3:46 PM BST
September is going to relish 12 furlongs next year. I hope she can continue to improve despite her small stature.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 13, 2017 3:48 PM BST
Magic Lily looks a very good Oaks prospect too.
Report impossible123 October 13, 2017 4:56 PM BST
A very encouraging run from September in the Fillies Mile, but unlucky not to win. But, she does need good ground, at least, to show her best; same condition and more pace in the 1000G she'll be a serious player. Magical, I believe, did not stay.

A few days ago OB reckoned September was more of a middle distance horse.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 13, 2017 5:14 PM BST
I would forgive Magical this run as she may not have been at her best having had a hard race in France 12 days ago.
Report unclepuncle October 13, 2017 6:14 PM BST
Gutted September didn't get up - had backed her during the week and again this morning after Happily was withdrawn.Cry
Report Figgis October 13, 2017 6:33 PM BST
I'm rating the Fillies Mile significantly behind the Cheveley Park and Moyglare form and I can't really see the winner being a big player in either the Guineas or Oaks. September ran well but I still have her Chesham win as her best performance, so that's a bit of a concern about her going forward. No real surprise that Magical didn't run up to her best considering she was also a bit below par in France. It's a matter of whether she's totally past her best now or she's just had enough for the season. End of year form is generally given more credit than earlier form, often wrongly in my view, and it would be no shock if she's the one from this race with the better prospects come next year's Oaks.
Report deepingfox October 13, 2017 8:38 PM BST
The paddock was a really interesting sight. Magic Lily and Lauren's were two mighty fine and strong looking two year old fillies, benefitting from good stall positions when racing began. September was much smaller, with the physique of an equine Mo Farah, very lithe, and a great walker. I scribbled Oaks across my race card, and crossed fingers that she performed well back of good ground at last. She did, probably 2L better than the form given the run of the race, and why she is still 16s for Epsom in a place or two is a mystery to me. She looks the part, runs her best races on good quick ground, is bred beautifully and to my eyes should be Oaks fav. Coronet won The Zetland at this meeting last year and was the same price for The Oaks post race!
Report unclepuncle October 14, 2017 9:28 AM BST
She would surely have won by at least 2 lengths with a clear run and Laurens probably benefited by at least a length by having the golden highway, so in effect you could say September was 3L+ better than the rest (not far off what Minding did in the same race).
Report deepingfox October 14, 2017 7:22 PM BST
Agreed Uncle. SEPTEMBER very unlucky. Ground seems key. Happy to bet Epsom in June is good ground or quicker. Possible Newmarket contender, too, if conditions suit.
Report unclepuncle October 14, 2017 9:38 PM BST
After watching todays racing that golden highway on the rail seemed to be worth more like 4 or 5 lengths - Newmarket really need to do something to try to sort that out.

Thank god the National Hunt is back in full gear soon and we don't have to worry about the bloody draw.Grin
Report unclepuncle November 4, 2017 12:54 AM GMT
While I would have preferred her not to have gone to the Breeders Cup at all September ran another great Oaks trial imo.
Report impossible123 November 4, 2017 10:07 AM GMT
A tardy start at the off put paid to the chance of September in America nevertheless, a sterling effort to finish 3rd (from last place). AOB has nominated Happily for the Oaks, and with the finishing kick displayed by September she'd not be out of place if she'd be a serious Oaks candidate next June, but she MUST have good ground to show her best against the likes of Clemmie and Happily especially in the 1000G.
Report Lance in France November 5, 2017 2:37 PM GMT
As mentioned before I'm all over September for The Oaks (and much smaller for the Guineas) and IMO she has run two cracking trials the last two attempts. I'm just not picking up any positive vibes from the camp though. Moore has only ridden her once (Chesham) and that's only because Clemmie deferred to the 6 furlong race and he didn't have a choice! The trainer was more interested post race in discussing Happily's plan for next year - no mention of our gal.Do they just not rate her? Her performances suggest otherwise so maybe she will keep surprising them. I'm still full of hope, I just pray they are!
Report unclepuncle November 6, 2017 11:20 AM GMT
September is by Deep Impact so not one of Coolmores stallions so no benefit for them to talk her up.

Hopefully Deep Impact can have an Epsom double.Grin
Report Lance in France November 7, 2017 5:23 PM GMT
That thought occurred to me as well uncle. They had better get used to it as they used Galileo till the cows came home and now they are going to be a little stuffed going forward. Perhaps they can out source some brood mares to mate with in future with no Galileo blood lines. It's going to be an interesting few years upcoming.
Report unclepuncle March 18, 2018 11:51 AM GMT
Report Lance in France March 20, 2018 10:02 AM GMT
Nice double you got there uncle - was it EW?
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2018 10:20 AM GMT
No just a straight win double. Also got them in a treble with Elarqam @ 20/1 for the 2,000G.Excited
Report Lance in France March 20, 2018 1:03 PM GMT
Nice!  Anyone read or got access to read APOB's interview in the post today? Did he have anything positive to say about September?
Report impossible123 March 20, 2018 2:02 PM GMT
I like September but she must have good or better ground. A mile could be on the short side  but still competitive if she gets her ground; middle distance could be her forte. I hope she does not turn out to be like 'Promise To Be True' who had training issues and retired the following season.

Clemmie seems to be AOB's number one. She also prefers good or better ground but goes on good to soft too. I think Happily and September will be more suited between 10f and 12f.
Report blackbarn March 20, 2018 2:06 PM GMT
Not much horse specific stuff - here is the only relevant bit.  The article is mainly a lot of fluff and nonsense

QUOTE - Becoming more specific, O'Brien adds: "Amedeo Modigliani could be anything and we can dream a bit with him. Saxon Warrior, Gustav Klimt, US Navy Flag and Mendelssohn would all look Guineas horses.

“We're very lucky with the bunch of fillies we have. We were delighted with what the two-year-old fillies did last year. The likes of Clemmie, September and Magical all did very well at two.

"Clemmie was not overraced at two, even though she was out early. The filly Donnacha won on at the Curragh [Happily], she's a serious filly too. September ran a massive race in the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket. We think we have some nice three-year-old fillies."

Of the build-up to the first Classics, O'Brien enthused: "This year we are very lucky there are two brilliant Guineas trials at Leopardstown over seven furlongs. They are perfect Guineas trials.

"We always ran fillies in the trial at Leopardstown and it was a very lucky race for us. Some of those fillies went on and did very well. The colts' race was always a mile, which was a little bit too far for a Guineas trial at that time of year. That is back to seven now, which is a big bonus.

"This will be the first time ever that we have a proper Guineas trial for colts in Ireland. I think a lot of our three-year-olds will now be able to start there and then go on to Newmarket. The Gladness was too tough as it was against older horses and the Leopardstown trial was a mile and too far. The timing is perfect for Newmarket."

Amedeo Modigliani
He could be anything. He's very much in the ‘could be anything’ category. He's a Galileo who always travels very strong in his work and you'd hope he would stay too. He has a lot of pace. Because we haven't seen him since he won his maiden at Galway I suppose we can dream a bit with him.

Report Lance in France March 20, 2018 2:49 PM GMT
Thanks blackbarn.

Correct i123, most of us think of September as an Oaks filly, but a few of them have also won the 1000 on the way there. That would be a bonus!
Report blackbarn March 20, 2018 4:16 PM GMT
No bother at all.   Looking forward to those trials.  I will lay the two winners straight after the raceWink in whatever they are entered.
Report impossible123 March 20, 2018 5:24 PM GMT
In 2015 Coolmore had Minding, Alice Springs and Ballydoyle who practically won all the Gp 1 races between them. Similarly, this year Clemmie, Happily and September where the last named respectively must have the prerequisite good/firm ground to be at their best.

There was a shock in the last renewal eg Winter (a late recruit) but hopefully, with all the charges in AOB's care this time a more predictable result will be forthcoming - here's hoping.
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 20, 2018 7:52 PM GMT
I'm hoping Clemie wins the Guineas and September the Oaks. One of my bets is a little E/W double placed just before Royal Ascot both at 25/1 that pays over 18k. Would be nice to hit them hard for a small stake.
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 20, 2018 8:21 PM GMT
I should have said almost 18k.
Report impossible123 March 20, 2018 9:39 PM GMT
£18k is a lot of dosh,...I hope it comes to fruition. I too have Clemmie in two small accas with Footpad, Presenting Percy, Samcro, Altior, and/or Might Bite (KG).
Report unclepuncle March 20, 2018 9:53 PM GMT
Hope your bet comes in Jack - for both our sakes.Wink
Report Jack Bauer '24' March 20, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
I also have various singles at 33/1, 25/1, 20/1 and lots of other multiple bets so it could be a lot more in the end. Saxon Warrior in the Derby is my biggest punt this season, if they all win for AOB it would be very nice. Probably won't happen but nice to look forward to.
Report unclepuncle March 21, 2018 8:22 AM GMT
O’Brien saying that Clemmie won’t be rushed to make the Guineas - not sure if that implies she had a setback?
September seems to be an intended Guineas runner though so have added her at 12/1.
Report unclepuncle March 21, 2018 3:28 PM GMT
Laid off my Clemmie stake this morning at 3.75 to free up the money to put on September at 12/1.

I now see that Clemmie has just been matched at 6.0 even though the aim still appears to be the Guineas.Confused

O'Brien said: "Clemmie had a stone bruise for the past few days and the plan is to send her straight for the 1,000 Guineas.

"We're also training Happily for the 1,000, and September could also go for the same race."

So September not a definite yet. He mentioned in the ATR stable tour she might go for a trial but 7f will surely be too short for her.
Report impossible123 March 21, 2018 4:46 PM GMT
Clemmie has been reported by O'Brien to be off a few days after a stone bruise, and is out to 4/1 from 3/1; she'll go straight to this race along with Happily and September.

Just over 7 weeks to go before the 1st Classic on the Flat.
Report Lance in France April 10, 2018 1:35 PM BST
Clemmie and September not entered in the Leopardstown trial. APOB has half a dozen entered with Magical appearing to be the top name at present
Report Millerracing67 April 15, 2018 1:54 PM BST
With Clemmie looking an unlikely runner?? I've had a little bit of the 11.5 on here about September.
Report impossible123 April 15, 2018 5:27 PM BST
Great shame Clemmie might not make the 1000G.

Betting wise, with Clemmie unlikely to be 100% fit if turning up Happily and September will be the only two I'll go for, especially September if the ground is good or better, I firmly believe; Sept was 50/1 with ***365 to do the 1000G and Epsom Oaks double. But she does need good or better ground to be at her most effective.
Report blackbarn April 15, 2018 5:43 PM BST
Magical beaten today in a French Guineas trial.  Finished 4th.
Report impossible123 April 15, 2018 6:43 PM BST
A week before the end of March Clemmie was reported to be off a few days after a stone bruise. Now 3 weeks later she's not seemed to have progressed sufficiently from that to contest the 1000G in 3 weeks' time. More than just a stone bruise perhaps (initially)?
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