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mr meagi
16 Apr 18 16:19
Date Joined: 18 May 06
| Topic/replies: 884 | Blogger: mr meagi's blog
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Pause Switch to Standard View Valero Texas Open 2018
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Report mr meagi April 16, 2018 4:28 PM BST
There might be a slight early/late bias here but generally it will be 'Texas Weather' either take to this place or you don't.
I cannot see an obvious favourite to hang your hat on...Can you?

Here's  a local boy...runner a buy-to-sell to start things off...he might run hot early.Confused

Abraham Ancer 240 €7.00  €1,673.00 Happy
Report mr meagi April 16, 2018 9:07 PM BST
To Win

Bill Haas 95.14 €13.00  €1,223.80


(I'm off to the Top 40 markets)Happy
Report Hank Hill April 16, 2018 9:52 PM BST
The Hoffmeister - follow the bear Cool
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 16, 2018 10:53 PM BST

A VERY ‘VALERO’ VELCOME to the TEXAS OPEN (VTO) from the host venue for the last eight years.
The 4th most difficult non-major course on TOUR in 2012 and the hardest par 72 on TOUR in 2011. BIG hitters have the edge, as there is a big advantage to distance off the tee, and the other theme this week is WIND.

The third-longest running non major event on TOUR that first began back in 1922..... behind only the BMW Championship (1899) & Canadian Open (1904)..... where since ‘22 there have only been 9 non US winners. So dig out those Lucchese boots once again, as we remember the Alamo and Waco, and leave all those Honky Tonks to 1000/1 shots Robert Allenby et al, as we spend this next week in a Lone Star State (of mind). The winner this week by the way does not get another ‘nice Jacket’, but receives a VTO logo pair of those Lucchese cowboy boots.
The weather especially in Texas is always worth considering. Sunny and pleasant atm. Jim Furyk: "It’s a severe golf course. It’s a lot of fun when it’s calm. The problem is it’s never calm, so it’s grueling.

A particularly weak field as this is a natural break between the Masters and the build up for THE PLAYERS. After three years of being played BEFORE the Masters, the Valero shifted back into its late April berth in 2016, and has since received a lesser quality entry to the fields. Looking at next year's schedule, this event will take over the role of the Houston Open as the lead-in event to Augusta National.
ADAM 'Texas Slam' SCOTT is back for his first appearance here since 2011 while Chappell is defending champ. LUKE is on my LIST again this week as he is one of the longest hitters on Tour.
Sergio 'Watery' Garcia who headlines the full field of 156 this week, also took a part in the course design, acting as a player consultant to The Shark - bet he can't wait for the watery grave that is The Players at Sawgrass in three weeks. This week's tournament in Texas is also the second last chance to make the cut-off inside the World Top 50, to be eligible for next month's Players Championship.
The University of Central Oklahoma's Joshua Creel 7-under-par 32-33=65 earned his first start in a PGA TOUR event, along with qualifiers Paul McConnell, Troy Matteson & Curtis Reed, who all posted scores of 5-under 67 today at Briggs Ranch Golf Club in today's open qualifier for the VTO. Francesco Molinari will take a pass this week, citing a shoulder problem - "I'll get back at the Wells Fargo."

Meanwhile back at the ranch...
Catch Me ifyoucan • April 24, 2016 10:58 PM BST
STATUE to HOFF fist pump going up next year at Valero !
.....really does deserve that statue!
© CM iyc Devil
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 16, 2018 11:36 PM BST
Garcia & Crenshaw team up to win the club member-member tournament at Austin Golf Club over the weekend !
When 2-time Masters champ Ben Crenshaw and last year's champ, Sergio Garcia teamed-up, pity the other poor members - They had NO CHANCE !
Crenshaw reportedly played off a 0 handicap, while Garcia played to a plus-5. Unsurprisingly, they managed to combine for the victory.

Crenshaw co-designed Austin Golf Club, not to be confused with Austin Country Club across town which annually hosts the PGA Tour's WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
Garcia's wife, Angela, has ties to Austin which has led the Spaniard to spend more time in the area in recent years. A TIP IN ITSELF FOR THIS WEEK PUNTERS Wink
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 16, 2018 11:37 PM BST
Masters champ PADDY "Honey, I'm from Texas" REED also bowed-out of the field this week. Spending time with his family no doubt Whoops
Report Catch Me ifyoucan April 16, 2018 11:41 PM BST
CLOSE TO THE WINNER'S LIST: Luke List stands atop the list of career non-winners trending toward their first victory in 2018. List has 109 starts in his career and four top-10 finishes this season. Since Feb. 25, List lost a playoff to Justin Thomas in the Honda Classic, finished T-7 with a final-round 68 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and is coming off a T-3 finish at the RBC Heritage, one shot out of a playoff.
Of the 18 players with at least four top-ten finishes on the PGA Tour this season, List is the only one without a victory in his career yet. He is the highest-ranked player from North America without a Tour title to his credit.
Asked on Sunday when the breakthrough will come, List said, “Hopefully next week,” meaning the Valero Texas Open, which begins Thursday in San Antonio.

That wouldn’t surprise swing coach Jamie Mulligan, who has been caretaker of List’s rise in the world rankings (currently a career-best 53rd) and FedExCup race (currently 11th). “He keeps getting better and better and better,” said Mulligan. “We’ve talked a bunch about how you can play every type of course. You wouldn’t think a tiny little course like this one wouldn’t fit him, with all the trees, but it did. He’s getting more comfortable in wanting to get into the last group.”
List wasn’t especially satisfied with his closing 72. He made four bogeys compared to four the first three rounds combined, but considering the swing wasn’t there on Sunday, that Harbour Town didn’t really fit his eye, and he was playing a little under the weather, this was another performance on which to build.
One takeaway for List was his attitude and he expressed that in his post-round news conference. “I’m getting better each opportunity,” he said. “And I feel like my game has risen to the point where I expect to contend every week. So it’s going to happen.”
Report therhino April 17, 2018 10:40 AM BST
Probably the lowest odds he's ever gone off at, but still think 26s is good value for List. One of the form players and on the whole tour, on a course that favours length and the field is rubbish. No reason not to have a go. Done Hoffman and Steele as well.
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 11:27 AM BST
Valero Texas Open - Top 40 (SB)

Kevin Streelman   11/10

Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 2:15 PM BST
Quiz Question

How much of this €6 will I recoup. I'll tell you later, so have a guess. As they say in 'The Leaving Cert'....give reasons for your answerCool

Jon Curran 1,000.00 €2.00  €1,998.00
Bob Estes 1,000.00 €2.00  €1,998.00
Zecheng Dou 1,000.00 €2.00  €1,998.00
Report DickTurpin April 17, 2018 4:02 PM BST
Valero Texas Open picks :-

B Horschel @38
J Walker @60
K Bradley @85
K Mitchell @220

GL all................
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 6:06 PM BST

Starting to look like Late Thurs/Early Fri is best by maybe a shot+ Waiting for tee-times to do match-bets
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 6:44 PM BST
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 7:09 PM BST
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 7:11 PM BST
Apologies about linksBlush

8:40 a.m. Thursday, 1:40 p.m. Friday: Kevin Chappell, Xander Schauffele, Pat Perez
8:50 a.m. Thursday, 1:50 p.m. Friday: Adam Scott, Jimmy Walker, Jhonattan Vegas
1:40 p.m. Thursday, 8:40 a.m. Friday: Charley Hoffman, Zach Johnson, Matt Kuchar
1:50 p.m. Thursday, 8:50 a.m. Friday: Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim
Report Hank Hill April 17, 2018 7:51 PM BST
You may well get a good run for your money from Estes meagi. I layed him recently in a tourny around 50-1, and being a local tourny for him is a positive. Obviously there is a reason he is 1000, but as Langer shows, age can sometimes just be a number. I hope he gives you a good run.
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 8:23 PM BST
Thanks Hank, I did the three 1000/1 bets to see how they would turn, I like to actively learn about betting on the exchanges....I used to back Curran years ago but put a line through him in the end, ... there are two rookies from China that are unknown quantities  on what is, a very 'banal' golf course ..I'm skipping the PGA next week, and I'm off to the China Open where I hope I don't back the wrong Wong  again. It is good to look at new names as they appear. Estes has a great record on this course and is only a skimpy 5/1 in Top 40 market.


The other guy is billed as the bad guy of Chinese Golf, Zhang Xinjun,, What did he do?Laugh

Bob Estes    13    10    MC    17    15    15    37    44    17    MC    73    4    7    -    -    -    27
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 8:30 PM BST
Speaking of age re you remember Mark Calcavecchia with the missus on the bag, in the British Open.. and nearly winning...what age was he then...horses for courses.,Hank
Report mr meagi April 17, 2018 8:35 PM BST
9th in 2012 Royal Lytham and St Annes at age of 52, Estes is 52 nowCool
Report mr meagi April 18, 2018 8:49 AM BST
mr meagi • April 16, 2018 4:28 PM (Here's  a local boy...runner a buy-to-sell to start things off...he might run hot early. Abraham Ancer 240 €7.00  €1,673.00)

This young fella has been running since I backed him ...just got my stake back...and a free bet...he's only off the Web Tour but PGA put him 15 on their 'Power Rankings'for this...thank you very much.Cool

Lay Abraham Ancer 120.00 €7.00  €833.00
Report mr meagi April 18, 2018 8:55 AM BST
Warning re Draw Bias

If Ancer had been given a good draw I would have kept him... this is from Betfair

'It's still very early days but an afternoon start on Thursday may prove beneficial again with the wind forecasted to be quite strong on Friday afternoon. I'll be keeping an eye on the forecast and should it materialise, backing the leaders in the clubhouse on Friday afternoon will be the way to go. The day two afternoon starters are likely to struggle in the tougher conditions and being on the leaders is essential here.'

Suits Charlie and others....Confused
Report mr meagi April 18, 2018 9:03 AM BST
ffsk! Ancer got a great drawTongue Out....anyway...I'll run with the free bet.

GLTA...Palmer has only two selections for Valero this week?? I wouldn't back Scott with Monopoly money have to like his style.Confused
Report EUGENE KRABS April 18, 2018 1:00 PM BST
Not sure if this draw bias is being a little bit over played by some ! According to the accuweather site the winds are as follows;

Thursday AM 13 MPH  PM 10 MPH
Friday   AM 10 MPH  PM 12 MPH

Yes there is a bias but it's only 2 - 3 mph !

More interesting is forecast thunder storms and heavy rain on Saturday which has the potential to cause delays, tee time movements, two rounds Sunday, Monday finish etc. not to mention the dreaded mudballs !

Happy punting !
Report DickTurpin April 18, 2018 3:59 PM BST
Added K Tway @150.......

Valero Texas Open picks :-

B Horschel @38
J Walker @60
K Bradley @85
K Mitchell @220
K Tway @150

GL all................
Report system99 April 18, 2018 8:17 PM BST
After the success of kadairi, who i posted when 200, following mr meagis lead {actually tipped him up pre event to a mate ,who is a very happy camper lol]thought i'd have a bash posting em up.
Kevin Chappell 34.00
Brendan Steele 38.00
Kevin Streelman 80.00
Bill Haas 85.00
Harold Varner III 330.00
Daniel Summerhays 370.00

good luck all
Report mr meagi April 18, 2018 9:42 PM BST

Apr 16, 2018 -- 9:07PM, mr meagi wrote:

To WinBill Haas 95.14 €13.00  €1,223.80GLTA!(I'm off to the Top 40 markets)

Tomorrow even weather all day...Why not try to pick First Round Leader for a bit of fun.. I'll start...beat this guy.
Valero Texas Open 2018 - 1st Round Leader
Ryan Armour 200.00 €2.00  €398.00

GLTA!Tongue Out

'Great minds think alike and fools seldom differ'...I'm with you on Haas and Streelman, System99...the latter hasn't a great tee time on Friday though

Report therhino April 18, 2018 10:57 PM BST
More money matched on Horschel than any other player by a healthy margin. Not often a player trading at odds that high sees the most action.
Report mengmeng April 18, 2018 11:10 PM BST
i havnt really been able to make a choice on who to back yet, im looking at Horschel,Hoffman or Garcia. I might leave the first day or two and get involved on saturday, i will sleep on it and see how i feel looking at things in the morning.
Report mr meagi April 19, 2018 9:05 AM BST
Topping Up with this guy who is$%te at the moment, but his long iron play(11th>200yds) might give him a run..(good draw and 6th here last year)

Sung Kang 240.00 €5.00  €1,195.00

Report mr meagi April 19, 2018 11:18 AM BST
Estes out ....'"I’ve been fighting the pollen for the last two weeks and the pollen is winning. I probably shouldn’t have played last week but gave it a go."

Apparently Rose has a similar problem...these guys are human after is a nuisance to do anything when 'stuffed up'.
Report mengmeng April 19, 2018 12:26 PM BST
i keep reading things about this tournament and they are all saying a long hitting ballstriker who isnt a great putter to do well here... surely that sound like a perfect description of Sergio? so i have gone for the obvious favorite, i know no points for originality but if hes on a going week he has to be class for the field andin the past he has wonevents where he has been the standout ranked player, i think he likes being the big fish in the little pond
Report therhino April 19, 2018 1:25 PM BST
Kind of sounds a lot like the ponce as well meng. Pulled off some decent trades this week so now very interested in this, starting with Hoff, List, Ponce, Billy, Brendan and Vegas.
Report mengmeng April 19, 2018 1:32 PM BST
to be fair it sounds like quite alot of the players nowadays, and the ponce has won here before if im correct, so i wouldnt be surprised if he had a good showing, he has been putting a few more decent rounds together in recent months, but his putting has been holding him back as with most of his career
Report therhino April 19, 2018 2:01 PM BST
Will McG off to a blinding start

Shot 9 in the hole
Shot 8 putt 5 ft 4 in., 21 in. to hole
Shot 7 22 ft 0 in. to green, 3 ft 3 in. to hole
Shot 6 24 ft 7 in. to right fairway, 18 ft 5 in. to hole
Shot 5 88 ft 1 in. to right fairway, 40 ft 9 in. to hole
Shot 4 129 yds to front center green side bunker, 84 ft 2 in. to hole
Shot 3 30 ft 0 in. to right rough, 154 yds to hole
Shot 2 32 ft 0 in. to tree outline, 160 yds to hole
Shot 1 285 yds to tree outline, 162 yds to hole
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