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mr meagi
06 Feb 18 15:29
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Date Joined: 18 May 06
| Topic/replies: 727 | Blogger: mr meagi's blog
Bet 1 - AT&T - €10 Trixie - Cost €40 - (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

Day to beat Dustin  6/4
Rahm to beat Mc Ilroy 20/21
Reed to beat Grace 20/21


Potential Returns - €231 - Cool
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Replies: 13
By:
donny osmond
When: 07 Feb 18 00:34
good luck, good to see you back.
By:
mr meagi
When: 07 Feb 18 13:49
Thanks for that, donny!Love I intend to do maybe twelve bets on this thread this year...Here is my logic for the above selections.

When you decide on a combination bet, you are confined to the offerings of that one bookmaker, in this case.(BS)

Dustin Johnson is a fantastic golfer...and his record here is better than Day's by a whisker
Dustin Johnson    10events  20.9    AF        69.34    AS
Jason Day    8      19.5              69.43


Two winners last time out.
In the past Dustin used the Farmers to knock off the cobwebs for this after his annual extended holiday, missing the cut there twice in three years before excelling at Pebble Beach there after.....but not this year....my conclusion is that he might run 'cold' here after a month off, and that makes 6/4 Day look..'logical'.

McIlroy's last visit here resulted in a missed cut in the 2010 US Open while Rahm's 5th on his maiden visit was very impressive.
Jon Rahm    1      5.0            68.75

Reed is as Reed does.....but figures like this make it a tall ask for Grace to best him on his first visit to the place
Patrick Reed    5          15.6            69.40

I rely on logic and when it does not work I go back to the drawing board and dig up some more......Good Luck to All.Cool
By:
mr meagi
When: 11 Feb 18 23:31
Bet 1: Loser.....Turnover €40  Loss €40  Percentage Loss 100%Cry
By:
mr meagi
When: 13 Feb 18 12:33
Bet 2 €10 Accum  (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

Mick beat Leishman 8/11
Spieth beat Thomas 3/4
Dustin beat McIlroy 1/2
Bubba beat Chappell 20/23


Potential Return €85

ps: In truth an accum at short odds is a 'Hail Mary' in any language but I am not feeling it this week and just ..hunting losses with a small stake..GLTALove
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 13 Feb 18 20:23
"The test of a great golfer is his ability to recover from a bad start". Devil
By:
mr meagi
When: 19 Feb 18 08:39
Bet 2:Loser....Turnover €50 Loss€50 Percentage Loss 100%Cry
By:
mr meagi
When: 20 Feb 18 16:56
I feel like Tom Cruise in 'The Last Samurai'.....every time I get up,I get a belt of a stick. In my case it has been guys drawing their matches on the last hole to turn winning bets into losing ones...anyway ...enough whinging and self pity...not my style.Silly

To do the exact same thing and expect a different outcome is to be regarded as insane,Tom.
...so let's change it up a little and engage in a social experiment of a kind.

What is this 'draw stick' that keeps beating me? With BS it is called 16/1. In the case of Oman and the Honda this may be overpricing....Both these events have long established data over a specific venue which is an unusual happening in itself..I just hate the European Tour and the inconsistency of its many participants so therefore I will confine my investigation to the Honda,,,,for better or worse.

If you look at the patterns of scoring in both events there is usually about 5 points between the 12th and 48th player in these two events...ie a 'bunched scoreboard' which in effect means a lot of draws in match events...I took 7 of 8 matches on BS leaving out Rory and Garcia(too much pain)and I covered the draws in singles with a little bit of doubles action on the side....1 draw gives me my stake back...and that is all this weeks golf is worth....it is a 'duck shoot' in any language, you might hit something but not before you fill it full of lead...Good Luck to All and details of the bet to end all bets will follow below.ExcitedCrazy
By:
mr meagi
When: 20 Feb 18 17:06
Bet 3: 7*€1 Singles and 21*50c Doubles All 16/1 Total Cost €17.50 BS

-C.Hadley v P.Kizzire   
-R.Fowler v J.Thomas   
-R.Knox v R.C Bello   
-T.Hatton v T.Fleetwood   
-B.Harman v J.Dufner   
-R.Moore v S.Stallings   
-G.Woodland v A.Noren


GLTA!Cool
By:
Facts
When: 20 Feb 18 17:56
methinks you are over complicating matters Plain
By:
donny osmond
When: 20 Feb 18 19:21
good luck sir

16/1 sounds weong, but i guess they have done their work?
By:
mr meagi
When: 20 Feb 18 19:33
There are weeks when 16/1 seems below the mark but I think if you look at the results at the Honda for the last 6 years you might think that 16/1 this week is a tad generous...I look at

https://www.foxsports.com/golf/leaderboard


...anyway..it is a good inexpensive way to calibrate your instincts without any real outlay...I would not bet on the outrights in either tournament this week when 5 shots can move you from Top 10 to outside the Top 40 eg 2017....7 finished -4,6 were -3,10 were -2,6 were -1....etc that's 29 players within 4 shots.
Thanks Facts and donny for your input...lets see how the cards play on this...Confused
By:
mr meagi
When: 20 Feb 18 19:37
In Bet 1 and Bet 2 combined, I have hit two draws that have cost me €130 euro and that is from 7 match selections..??
By:
mr meagi
When: 23 Feb 18 22:47
This has been a long week trying to make sense of things and it continues to get worse....at the moment there are 19 guys on +2 and amazingly....this just happened.....

     Hadley C.+12        74    78              152
         Kizzire P.+12      74    78              152


Grin
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