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mr meagi
06 Feb 18 15:29
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 May 06
| Topic/replies: 1,009 | Blogger: mr meagi's blog
Bet 1 - AT&T - €10 Trixie - Cost €40 - (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

Day to beat Dustin  6/4
Rahm to beat Mc Ilroy 20/21
Reed to beat Grace 20/21


Potential Returns - €231 - Cool
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Report donny osmond February 7, 2018 12:34 AM GMT
good luck, good to see you back.
Report mr meagi February 7, 2018 1:49 PM GMT
Thanks for that, donny!Love I intend to do maybe twelve bets on this thread this year...Here is my logic for the above selections.

When you decide on a combination bet, you are confined to the offerings of that one bookmaker, in this case.(BS)

Dustin Johnson is a fantastic golfer...and his record here is better than Day's by a whisker
Dustin Johnson    10events  20.9    AF        69.34    AS
Jason Day    8      19.5              69.43


Two winners last time out.
In the past Dustin used the Farmers to knock off the cobwebs for this after his annual extended holiday, missing the cut there twice in three years before excelling at Pebble Beach there after.....but not this year....my conclusion is that he might run 'cold' here after a month off, and that makes 6/4 Day look..'logical'.

McIlroy's last visit here resulted in a missed cut in the 2010 US Open while Rahm's 5th on his maiden visit was very impressive.
Jon Rahm    1      5.0            68.75

Reed is as Reed does.....but figures like this make it a tall ask for Grace to best him on his first visit to the place
Patrick Reed    5          15.6            69.40

I rely on logic and when it does not work I go back to the drawing board and dig up some more......Good Luck to All.Cool
Report mr meagi February 11, 2018 11:31 PM GMT
Bet 1: Loser.....Turnover €40  Loss €40  Percentage Loss 100%Cry
Report mr meagi February 13, 2018 12:33 PM GMT
Bet 2 €10 Accum  (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

Mick beat Leishman 8/11
Spieth beat Thomas 3/4
Dustin beat McIlroy 1/2
Bubba beat Chappell 20/23


Potential Return €85

ps: In truth an accum at short odds is a 'Hail Mary' in any language but I am not feeling it this week and just ..hunting losses with a small stake..GLTALove
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 13, 2018 8:23 PM GMT
"The test of a great golfer is his ability to recover from a bad start". Devil
Report mr meagi February 19, 2018 8:39 AM GMT
Bet 2:Loser....Turnover €50 Loss€50 Percentage Loss 100%Cry
Report mr meagi February 20, 2018 4:56 PM GMT
I feel like Tom Cruise in 'The Last Samurai'.....every time I get up,I get a belt of a stick. In my case it has been guys drawing their matches on the last hole to turn winning bets into losing ones...anyway ...enough whinging and self pity...not my style.Silly

To do the exact same thing and expect a different outcome is to be regarded as insane,Tom.
...so let's change it up a little and engage in a social experiment of a kind.

What is this 'draw stick' that keeps beating me? With BS it is called 16/1. In the case of Oman and the Honda this may be overpricing....Both these events have long established data over a specific venue which is an unusual happening in itself..I just hate the European Tour and the inconsistency of its many participants so therefore I will confine my investigation to the Honda,,,,for better or worse.

If you look at the patterns of scoring in both events there is usually about 5 points between the 12th and 48th player in these two events...ie a 'bunched scoreboard' which in effect means a lot of draws in match events...I took 7 of 8 matches on BS leaving out Rory and Garcia(too much pain)and I covered the draws in singles with a little bit of doubles action on the side....1 draw gives me my stake back...and that is all this weeks golf is worth....it is a 'duck shoot' in any language, you might hit something but not before you fill it full of lead...Good Luck to All and details of the bet to end all bets will follow below.ExcitedCrazy
Report mr meagi February 20, 2018 5:06 PM GMT
Bet 3: 7*€1 Singles and 21*50c Doubles All 16/1 Total Cost €17.50 BS

-C.Hadley v P.Kizzire   
-R.Fowler v J.Thomas   
-R.Knox v R.C Bello   
-T.Hatton v T.Fleetwood   
-B.Harman v J.Dufner   
-R.Moore v S.Stallings   
-G.Woodland v A.Noren


GLTA!Cool
Report Facts February 20, 2018 5:56 PM GMT
methinks you are over complicating matters Plain
Report donny osmond February 20, 2018 7:21 PM GMT
good luck sir

16/1 sounds weong, but i guess they have done their work?
Report mr meagi February 20, 2018 7:33 PM GMT
There are weeks when 16/1 seems below the mark but I think if you look at the results at the Honda for the last 6 years you might think that 16/1 this week is a tad generous...I look at

https://www.foxsports.com/golf/leaderboard


...anyway..it is a good inexpensive way to calibrate your instincts without any real outlay...I would not bet on the outrights in either tournament this week when 5 shots can move you from Top 10 to outside the Top 40 eg 2017....7 finished -4,6 were -3,10 were -2,6 were -1....etc that's 29 players within 4 shots.
Thanks Facts and donny for your input...lets see how the cards play on this...Confused
Report mr meagi February 20, 2018 7:37 PM GMT
In Bet 1 and Bet 2 combined, I have hit two draws that have cost me €130 euro and that is from 7 match selections..??
Report mr meagi February 23, 2018 10:47 PM GMT
This has been a long week trying to make sense of things and it continues to get worse....at the moment there are 19 guys on +2 and amazingly....this just happened.....

     Hadley C.+12        74    78              152
         Kizzire P.+12      74    78              152


Grin
Report mr meagi February 26, 2018 2:55 PM GMT
Bet 3 One winner  Return €17 Loss .50cent (Let's call it even) ::
Summary after Bet 3: :Turnover €67 Loss €50 Percentage Loss 75%

'Time to start making money here'Angry
Report mr meagi February 27, 2018 12:11 PM GMT
Bet 4 - Mexico Championship - €10 Trixie - Cost €40 - (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

Mick to beat Rose 21/20
Tommy to beat Ricky 20/23
Spieth to beat Rahm 20/21


Potential Returns - €189 - Love

ps:'You could do worse than look at small stakes on the draws here at 16/1'
Report mr meagi March 4, 2018 10:27 PM GMT
Bet 4 - Mexico Championship - €10 Trixie - Cost €40 - (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

Mick to beat Rose 21/20---Win
Tommy to beat Ricky 20/23---Win
Spieth to beat Rahm 20/21---Win

Returns - €189 Grin

'That's what I'm talking about!'
Report mr meagi March 4, 2018 10:36 PM GMT
Summary after Bet 4:  Turnover € 107  Profit € 99  Percentage Profit 93%

'See you at the Valspar'
Happy
Report donny osmond March 4, 2018 10:48 PM GMT
CoolCool
Report mr meagi March 6, 2018 12:53 PM GMT
Bet 5 - India €10 Double - (Draw you Loose) - (BS)

SSP to beat Grillo 5/4
Jamieson to beat Beef 5/6

Returns - €41

GLTAExcitedLaugh
Report mr meagi March 6, 2018 5:52 PM GMT
Bet 6 - Valspar - €10 Trixie - Cost €40 - (Draw you Loose) - (BW)

Stenson to beat Tiger 4/5
Kuchar to beat List 10/11
Simpson to beat Grace 4/5


Returns - €163

GLTAHappy
Report mr meagi March 11, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
Bet 5 - Loser
Bet 6 - Loser

Summary after 6 Bets

Turnover €157 Profit €49 Percentage Profit 31%

(ps: I actually made money this week and Simpson/Grace was a 16/1 draw, might not be at Bay Hill/Match Play....might wait till Augusta...my match betting this week was 'sh--te' backed against Tiger and Beef who both finished second,but this is a great and inexpensive way to bet on golf...why not give it a go!)


GLTAHappy
Report mr meagi March 11, 2018 11:04 PM GMT
I'm at the GG's from the pub next week...Getabird in the first(all in) and e/w Cogry in the third, Gigginstown Top Owner 13/8 with Geraghty Top Jock 9/2 looks a play to nothing, Twiston Davies horses e/w in first two races on Wed,Blow by Blow e/w Alfred Bartlett and Faugheen in cheek pieces to leave them for dead...maybe young O'Brien's horse to win the Bumper...I just love it as much as I hate the Match Play.CoolExcitedWink
Report mr meagi April 2, 2018 6:18 PM BST
Bet 7 - Masters - €15 Trixie - Cost €60 - (Draw you Loose) - (BW)

Kuchar to beat Reed 10/11
Garcia to beat Rahm 1/1
Casey to beat Fowler 10/11


Potential Returns - €278.55 - Cool GLTA!
Report mr meagi April 8, 2018 12:01 AM BST
Bet 7- Loser(and how!)

Turnover $217 Loss €11 Percentage Loss 5%Blush
Report mr meagi April 8, 2018 12:12 AM BST
Retirement Speech

I have always maintained that golf predicting is 'in the lap of the Gods, (whoever they are) but regardless of this it is hard to imagine getting something more'incorrect' than I have this week...I bet against Reed/Fowler and Rahm , with Kooch,Casey, and Sergioooooo! Elvis has left the building and I wish you all Good Luck with all your golf machinations in the future...I followed the stats but ..they lied! I don't trust them any more....Sergio has finally delivered me from long hours of self-delusion as a self-professed golf tipster.

Nobody died and I lost €11 and the golf was truly brilliant today....Go Reed,Rahm and Ricky with my blessing!  Meagi says Bye!CoolHappy
Report bigH April 8, 2018 8:41 AM BST
PMSL

see you next week
Report bigH April 8, 2018 8:42 AM BST
Wink
Report mr meagi April 8, 2018 9:19 PM BST
Did you see that Casey **** arriving when the band is leavingWhoops
Report bigH April 8, 2018 9:27 PM BST
you can set your watch by him
Report dukeofpuke April 10, 2018 12:37 AM BST
just follow palmer atm you cant go far wrong
Report dukeofpuke April 10, 2018 12:42 AM BST
2 tricky events this week as most of the top players will rest

jon rahm could smash the open de espana but odds not worth it

the rbc all the geezers who did well at the masters are reflected in the price
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