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lewisham ranger
19 Jan 18 14:05
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Date Joined: 08 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 2,751 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
just for fun:

1. Dustin johnson
2. Jordan Spieth
3. Rory
4. Jon Rahm
5. Justin thomas

obviously most people overrate the number of majors that people will end their careers with. I think as someone else has pointed out before, in the modern post jack nicklaus era, only tiger woods and nick faldo have won six or more majors.

at the moment the current standings are

1. rory four majors
2. jordan three majors
3= dustin johnson, justin thomas one major
4. jon rahm no majors.

I'm actually going to be controversial here and suggest that rahm will finish with the most majors. I'll go for eight. rory and spieth joint with seven. dustin and justin three each. I think jordan picks up at least one more masters, bags his pga for the grand slam and picks off another couple of majors somewhere. Probably another british open. Rory I feel will win the masters at some point and another british open. but I think rahm is the player most likely to dominate over the next ten years, as he doesn't seem to have any weakness in his game.

but maybe i'm miles off? I think the biggest obstacle these players face is, 1. the difficulty in winning majors 2. the fields they are facing now, and 3. most of all perhaps, players we haven't even heard of now. maybe in ten years they'll be a tiger like figure dominating the game which will make it very hard for a more ageing trio of jordan, justin and jon to add to their tally. And DJ and Rory will be well past it by then.

just a bit of fun like i said. Tongue Out
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Report charwell. January 19, 2018 11:43 PM GMT
I think once Rahm wins one he will win plenty. May take him a bit of time to do that though as his performance last year in the majors was poor. I suspect he gets very nervous at the expectancy at his tender years.

I think majors takes great mental strength. Speith has the weakest game of the above but the best brain/course management. Hence I think he will come out on top.
Report lewisham ranger January 20, 2018 8:45 AM GMT
yes spieth very high golf i.q. and i think currently he would be favourite with most people to get the most slams out of that lot

it was like what phil said, to be a great golfer you either had to be very bright or very stupid. spieth certainly fits into the former category. I wonder if that's why rory and jordan do so well in the majors compared to dj- in normal events their strike rate would be very similar, but in majors johnson is something like 1 in 30 whereas rory and jordan more like 1 in 10 rate. maybe majors demand more intelligence because of the way the courses are set up?

personally I hope you're right but rahm seems like an awesome force of late, and the modern game is increasingly being set up for the power players. I certainly think he'll win a major this year.
Report Mighty Whites 2008 January 20, 2018 12:24 PM GMT
winning majors is tough - we know that from the fact that only two players in the modern era have won more than five majors.

Of the current top 20 in the world only nine have won a major and of those nine only spieth and Mcilroy are multiple major winners.

For Rahm, Rory and Spieth to reach the numbers you are talking about would require them to win 15 majors between them. It is possible but would require them picking up 2 of the 4 each year between them for the next seven or eight years.

Spieth and McIlroy could certainly get to 7 or 8 total. Spieth in particular looks the best placed to win the most of the current era. Rahm for me is currently a long way from eight majors. He is a great talent who has had a good first year on tour but he is only a year younger than spieth. Spieth has 14 career wins to Rahm's 3. 

As well as playing well you need a bit of luck to win a major sometimes you walk through the door when it opens e.g. Danny Willet. Spieth could so easily have been finished after his tee shot on 14 at Birkdale. To win majors over a sustained period you need luck with injuries and retain your hunger for the game both of which would be a concern with Rory.

Personally I think the next decade will see multiple players winning majors often 1 or 2 rather than a small group of players monopolising them.

Of the current crop if pushed I would say Spieth will finish his career with the most and possibly with a total that puts him amongst the games all time greats.
Report Mighty Whites 2008 January 20, 2018 12:27 PM GMT
Speith has the weakest game of the above

Couldn't disagree more. He has added distance and is sneaky long - long enough to compete thats for sure. His iron play is good among the best on tour for proximity to the hole and strokes gained from inside 150. He is also the best putter on a consistent basis. He has excellent course management which is an important element of the game.
Report lewisham ranger January 20, 2018 12:35 PM GMT
For Rahm, Rory and Spieth to reach the numbers you are talking about would require them to win 15 majors between them.

yeah I was thinking this last night and probably went too low. To reach the numbers I predicted for them, my five would have to win say 19 out of the next 40 majors, if we say they're doing it over a ten year period. probably more likely they'll get somewhere around the 12-13 mark. And if other players come out in the next five years who are really strong (after all who had heard of spieth and rahm five years ago?!) then it might even be worse than that.

also the whole situation in golf is very fluid at the moment. who's to say the likes of matusyama, fowler and pieters won't bag a few over the next few years. throw in others like tyrell hatton, tommy fleetwood, patrick reed and so on the strength in depth is greater than it ever was. And of course every now and again someone we've never heard of will jump up and win a major.

I'm sure when rose, scott, oost etc won their first major a lot of people said they'd win a few and they are still stuck on one which shows how hard it is.
Report Mighty Whites 2008 January 20, 2018 12:59 PM GMT
It is highly unlikely that any combination of five players will win half the majors over the next decade.

Over the last decade the best combination of any five players totals 13 1 x 4, 1 x 3, 3 x only 6 players got 2 majors or more. In the history of the game only 28 players have won 4 or more majors and only 45 have won three or more.

Apart from Tiger no current player has a career % win record of 1 in 10 so expecting them to do it in majors is unlikely. for what its worth the win % of the top guys are


Tiger 24% (It is 30 events since Tiger won)
Spieth 9.8%
Rory 8.1%
Phil 7.2% (Its 100 events since Phil won)
Rahm 7.1%
Dj 7%
Thomas 6.7% (5 of his 8 wins have come in limited field events)
Report Mighty Whites 2008 January 20, 2018 3:12 PM GMT
Another measure of the challenge of winning multiple majors would be to look at how many world golf championships people have won. They have been around since 1999 with a four a year although the HSBC champions didn't become a WGC event until 2009.

Only three players have won more than 2 of these events. Tiger Woods with 18, Dustin Johnson 5 and Geoff Ogilvy 3. Phil Mickleson has 2 wins and also won the hsbc champions when it was just a european tour event. Spieth, Thomas and Rahm haven't won any. Rory has 2.
Report lewisham ranger January 20, 2018 3:31 PM GMT
but spieth doesn't try to peak for the world golf championships like he does for the majors, does he
Report Mighty Whites 2008 January 20, 2018 6:14 PM GMT
no but he turns up hoping if not expecting to win.

My broader point was how hard it is to win events where all the top 50 in the world turn up.
Report donny osmond January 20, 2018 7:57 PM GMT
quite a few of them are suited to similar courses which may reduce the expectation whereas
spieth seems able to pitch up anywhere and compete. rory might need good conditions until
he shows otherwise.

i'd pick spieth, but dusty should have won more than him already, and has immense talent.

it doesnt bother me who wins unless they are beating a guy ive backed

all great to watch
Report therhino January 21, 2018 12:11 AM GMT
Spieth is the obvious answer. Has 3 already, and his affinity with Augusta is a massive advantage. One course gets a major every year and he loves it, history also shows it is a course that certain players master and plenty can't figure out at all. Could easily see him joining Tiger and Arnie with 4 green jackets. I could also see him developing such a love of the links courses and becoming a perennial Open contender. US Open and PGA far less suited, was lucky to win the Chambers Bay lottery when he did.

Rory is the hardest to predict. He could win another 8 or he might have already won his last.
Report lewisham ranger January 21, 2018 8:38 AM GMT
yes good call with spieth I'd be amazed if he didn't add another green jacket.

I think if you did a poll of punters 90 percent of them would say spieth or perhaps mcilroy would finish with most majors.

however I just think that rahm might surprise a lot of people with how good he is. the next couple of years will tell us a lot.

also think fowler will have a big year this year, a great player waiting to break out imo.
Report lewisham ranger January 21, 2018 2:01 PM GMT
probably tommy fleetwood will end up with more than all of them put together, lol.
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