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sundogmonkey
01 Oct 17 11:22
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Date Joined: 18 May 11
| Topic/replies: 891 | Blogger: sundogmonkey's blog
Morning all. So after a whole week of it's nearly time to get going again! I'm guessing most people who have read my threads over last two years know how it all works by now but just in case anyone is reading this for the first time I'll briefly re cap.

I'll pick 4 or 5 players each week, normally 5 depending on size of the field, and will look to post these selections Monday PM/Early Evening or Tues AM at latest depending on when most/all firms prices are up. The prices I post will be best available at the time of posting with high street firms. Normally selections will be e/w & I'll make clear what e/w terms I'm taking [first 5, first 6 etc]. I'll also make clear how many points I'm staking. I'll then post the following Monday the results from the week giving a running total each week for the season showing where I am re profit/loss etc for season. Those that have been following over the past couple of seasons will know that we've made a combined profit over the 2yrs of about 35pts. Not enough to retire on obviously but it sure beats losing!

In addition to the main selections each week I shall then also post a 'one to trade' selection on the Tuesday or Wednesday before the event, which is basically a player I don't necessarily think is a possible winner or even likely to place but I think will 'go well' at least for a round or two & will therefore offer a good trading opportunity. Unless it is a limited field event this player will be trading at 200 plus at the time of selection.

The target for them is to then trade at least a quarter of this price during the event. My tactics with the trader is to lay back 3 x times my initial stake if/when the player hits the target price meaning I have doubled my money if they hit this price whilst still having a decent chunk green to trade some more or let ride if they get right in the mix in the event.

To give a simple example if say I had £10 on a player at 200 this would obviously give a £2000 green. If I then lay £30 at 50 I have a guaranteed £20 profit whilst still having a £500 green left on the player.

To be honest I was disappointed with how the traders fared in 16/17 compared to the previous yr [where 2 of them actually won] & the best performance came from Poulter at Sawgrass who went very well for us at a very big price. Hopefully we'll fare better on the trader this year.

Finally as I'm sure most of you who read this are aware I post my picks on twitter each week as well, sometimes before on here. In addition I also post updates & useful info where possible through the week so if you're not already following me on twitter & are able to please do so. @sundogmonkey

As always thanks thanks to everyone for taking the time to read this & here's to a profitable season! First selections for the Safeway Open will be up later tomorrow/Tues AM.
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Replies: 225
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 01 Oct 17 11:24
Great start to year, seem to have managed to post the thread twice! We'll run with this one!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 03 Oct 17 16:06
Safeway Open Picks

Here we go then with first team of the new season!

C Reavie   40-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
L Glover   50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
S Brown    90-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
C Tringale 125-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
T Merritt  150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7

Good luck all for the week & the season!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 04 Oct 17 20:11
Safeway Open 'One to Trade'.

M Kim - Top 5 last yr & hoping a return to California can get him back on track. Currently trading 190-210.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 09 Oct 17 11:06
Safeway Open Results

A frustrating opening week to season with several of the team threatening to do something at various times but all fading in the end. Results as follows;

Reavie 13th
Glover 30th
Tringale 43rd
Brown 62nd
Merritt 69th

Weekly Tally -10pts
Seasons Tally -10pts

Trader M Kim M/C after a decent rnd 1.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 09 Oct 17 18:10
CIMB Picks

Lahiri 33s
Woodland 33s
Poulter 35s
Bradley 80s
Rodgers 100s

All 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5

Good luck all!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 10 Oct 17 21:21
CIMB 'One to Trade'

D Love III Played well here before & is a course specialist @ a similar tree lined course at the Wyndham which former champ Moore has also won on. The market assumption is because of his age he can't win but he's more than capable of going well & his current exchange price of 590 is ridiculous.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 15 Oct 17 11:32
CIMB Results

Bradley 2nd
Lahiri 10th
Rodgers 23rd
Woodland 28th
Poulter 58th

Weekly Tally +11pts
Seasons Tally +1pt


Trader DL3 did the business for us in rnd 1 as  well trading as low as 80 so a decent week all round.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 16 Oct 17 18:19
CJ Cup Picks

P Reed 33-1 1/4 1st 5
S Kang 50-1 1/5 1st 6
G McDowell 125-1 1/4 1st 5
CT Pan 150-1 1/5 1st 6
K Kraft 250-1 1/5 1st 6

All 1pt e/w

There is some method in my madness I promise!, which I'll explain on twitter shortly when I post tips there.

Good luck all!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 18 Oct 17 08:10
CJ Cup Trader

Gavin Green Not much to go on here obviously, just a hunch that with the pressure off after last weeks home game he may have a decent week. Currently trading @ 460-480
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 22 Oct 17 12:18
CJ Cup Results

Reed 11th
Kraft 44th
Pan 47th
Kang 54th
Gmac 64th

Weekly Tally -10pts
Seasons Tally -9pts


A bit frustrating Reed wasn't able to sneak a place, particularly as a birdie @ par 5 18th in rnd 4 as opposed to a bogey would have got us full place money.

There was some joy on the week in the form of our trader Green who had a great rnd 1 & traded at the target price.
By:
Facts
When: 23 Oct 17 14:20
sdm

Interesting thread. I also went through your sels for 2016/17.
My main investments are in horseracing , but have add some nice returns playing the golf markets this year.
My one observation ( advice?) I would offer up to you ( based on my serious betting on horses for the past   8 years), is to ignore ew betting, and invest on win bets only. I.e your 1 pt ew , becomes 2 points win. So same overall stake invested remains the same.
I would be interested in your return/ profit or loss, in the whole of last Season, if you had backed your selection win only ( using the place stake as a win stake) My own experience over each of the past 8 years, is a significant increase in profits, by betting to win only( converting the 1 pt ew into 2 points to win)
I know you'd have lost the returns on the bets that were placed, but I would guess this would be more than made up for the ' doubling ' of stake on the winners.

Look forward to viewing your reply and the P/L analysis.
By:
donny osmond
When: 23 Oct 17 17:58
facts

ew terms in golf are far better than in horse racing

sometimes 1/4 odds first 7

your observations may still be correct of course
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 23 Oct 17 19:04
WGC HSBC Picks

Cheers for your observations Facts & for taking time to read thread. It's not an analysis I've done of late. When I get time I'll go over last yr out of curiosity. As Donny says e/w terms in golf are way more attractive than in H Racing & a large chunk of my returns are 66-1/80-1 shots that finish 5th etc. It also keeps to make Sunday Evenings more interesting if you've got a 100-1 shot 2 shots out of the places going in to rnd 4! Anyway on to this weeks picks.

D Berger      40-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
M Fitzpatrick 45-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
T Pieters     70-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
K Stanley     100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 6

I'll potentially be adding 1 more later today/tomorrow.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 23 Oct 17 19:59
Sandersons Farms Picks

A Landry 45-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5
B Garnett 50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 6
S Kaufman 80-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5
D McCarthy 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 7
S Jaeger  150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 6

Good luck all for both events this week!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 24 Oct 17 12:20
WGC Final Pick & E/W Double!

Have added L Glover to WGC Team 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 6.

In addition I've gone with a 1/4 pt e/w double on Glover in WGC @ 100s & Jaeger in Sandersons @ 100s. E/W terms are 1/5 1st 6.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 24 Oct 17 21:04
HSBC WGC Trader

H Swafford - Another long hitting ball striker who'll hopefully take to this track. Currently trading @ 380
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 Oct 17 13:35
totally agree with facts

backing each way just costs you more

plus a lot of bookies only offer five places which is horrific. I think it's fair enough perhaps to back each way if your guy is 300-1 or bigger, and you are only doing one bet. But a lot of punters probably naively think "what can go wrong" when deciding to back each way, as if getting one placed in the top few places is easy when you have 150 runners in an average event.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 29 Oct 17 12:45
WGC - HSBC Results

Morning all. So I've done a bit of analysis on the E/W v Win Only argument & I would have been approx 55pts worse of in 16/17 if I'd backed all my players 2pts win only instead of 1pt e/w. Agree that if you're backing at 25s/33s only week in week out e/w won't help you long term but if you're backing players @ 3 fig prices regularly the e/w return keeps u in the game & can give a good return.

For example last season I had Fleetwood place @ 200s, Piercy @ 200s [shared place] Hagy @ 150s, Hadwin @ 100s as well as several others @ 66s, 80s etc. It's also worth noting I do occasionally go win only on the big guns. For example had DJ 3pts win @ Gemini last season. This season I'm yet to have an outright winner but have now returned over 33 pts on place return on an 80-1 shot & 100-1 shared place...which brings me on to WGC results...

Stanley 5th [shared 2 places with 2 others]
Fitzpatrick 9th
Berger 24th
Glover 50th
Pieters 71st

Event Tally +3.66pts
Seasons Tally -6.33pts


Trader Swafford started OK but couldn't push on.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 29 Oct 17 12:49
Actually seasons tally should be -5.33pts. Every point counts!
By:
Facts
When: 29 Oct 17 23:35
sdm
Maybe - from your analysis - that's a start to try and exclude a significant part of losing bets
. ie only bet each way on ( say) 66/1, or greater odds.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 30 Oct 17 09:08
Sandersons Farm Results

Interesting idea Facts. Perhaps something to consider for the future. Meanwhile another e/w return to report!

Kaufman 4th [Shared 2 places with 2 others]
Garnett 43rd
Jaeger 51st
Landry 59th
McCarthy M/C

Event Tally + 3.66 Pts
Seasons Tally -1.66pts
By:
Catch Me ifyoucan
When: 30 Oct 17 15:25
Morning all. So I've done a bit of analysis on the E/W v Win Only argument & I would have been approx 55pts worse of in 16/17 if I'd backed all my players 2pts win only instead of 1pt e/w. Agree that if you're backing at 25s/33s only week in week out e/w won't help you long term but if you're backing players @ 3 fig prices regularly the e/w return keeps u in the game & can give a good return.

Worth repeating imho.....keep her lit.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 30 Oct 17 20:51
Shriners Picks

Sticking with the e/w strategy chaps! Picks as follows.

W Simpson 22-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
B An      50-1 1pt e/w 1/4 1st 5
K Streelman 50-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
B Silverman 100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7
P Kizzire   100-1 1pt e/w 1/5 1st 7

Good luck all!
By:
therhino
When: 01 Nov 17 07:23

Oct 30, 2017 -- 9:25AM, Catch Me ifyoucan wrote:


Morning all. So I've done a bit of analysis on the E/W v Win Only argument & I would have been approx 55pts worse of in 16/17 if I'd backed all my players 2pts win only instead of 1pt e/w. Agree that if you're backing at 25s/33s only week in week out e/w won't help you long term but if you're backing players @ 3 fig prices regularly the e/w return keeps u in the game & can give a good return.Worth repeating imho.....keep her lit.


One season not a big enough sample size to know for sure imo. One winner at 80-1 or higher and he was better off going win only. Agree that the e/w component keeps you in the game though, back win only and the long dry spells prob mean someone gives up before the big win they need ever comes, but that is more a psychology problem than a maths one.

By:
Facts
When: 01 Nov 17 15:01
Agreed. But I'd still stay away from those comparatively short odds ew bets.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 01 Nov 17 15:21
Shriners Trader

B Gay
- Decent last week. Old plodders have a surprisingly good record here. Currently trading 360 +
By:
donny osmond
When: 01 Nov 17 16:58
surely the maths are that you are getting enhanced odds because your
win covers the place risk to bookies

if anything the argument should be to back em place only at double steak

best of luck getting on with the books 1/4 odds first 6 place only!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 06 Nov 17 08:31
Shriners Results

So another nice e/w return to keep us ticking along!

Results as follows;

Kizzire 4th
Simpson 20th
An 32nd
Silverman 47th
Streelman 67th

Weekly Tally +11pts
Seasons Tally +9.33pts


Trader Gay after an OK rnd 1 flopped Rnd 2 & M/C
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 06 Nov 17 16:35
OHL Mayakoba

1st Pick.

Ollie Schneiderjans 66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5.

Getting it up now as price is way too big in my book!
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 06 Nov 17 17:29
reed has gone well here in the past- seems a reasonable selection- what do you think monkey?
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 06 Nov 17 19:16
OHL Full Picks

Evening Lewisham. I must confess I can't c that he's actually played here before?? Either way he's proved very frustrating this yr so whilst it's quite possible it could all click for him this week & he hacks up he's not for me at the price. I've taken 6 this week in the end as follows;

G McDowell 50-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5
O Schneiderjans 66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5
P Kizzire 66-1 1pt e/w 1/5 7
R Knox 66-1 1pt e/w 1/4 5
A Baddeley 125-1 1pt e/w 1/5 6
B Stuard 150-1 1pt e/w 1/5 7

As always good luck all!
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 07 Nov 17 08:26
sorry monkey, was getting this tournament mixed up with the one in hawaii.
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 08 Nov 17 14:24
OHL 'One to Trade'

No worries Lewisham, as I say he could quite easily spring to life this week.

Trader for this week is R Barnes. Never done much here before but it should really be his sort of course. Top 10 a couple of weeks ago. Currently trading @ 450+
By:
ccmac1975
When: 08 Nov 17 17:41
Might take Barnes as frl then sundog. If you think he might go well as he often has a storming first round every so often
By:
Facts
When: 12 Nov 17 22:48
Very well done sundog.! Happy
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 13 Nov 17 08:10
OHL MAYAKOBA Results

Cheers Facts, a cracking week indeed!

Results as follows;

P Kizzire 1st !!!
B Stuard 9th
R Knox 9th
G Mac  34th
A Baddeley 74th

Schneiderjans was a Non Runner.

Weekly Tally +70.2 pts
Seasons Tally +79.53pts


Trader R Barnes also did us proud in Rnd 1 reaching the target trade price of 110. Hopefully you traded him rather than had him for FRL CCmac!
By:
THEMONEYSHOT
When: 13 Nov 17 16:37
Brilliant ! Nuff respect Sundog  !
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 13 Nov 17 20:04
RSM Classic Picks

Cheers MoneyShot, certainly nice to have a winning week near the end of the yr!

This weeks picks as follows;

Z Johnson 33-1 1/5 1st 6
J Lovemark 40-1 1/4 1st 5
O Schniederjans 40-1 1/4 1st 5
Whee Kim 80-1 1/4 1st 5
B Gay 100-1 1/5 1st 7

All 1pt e/w.

Good luck all!
By:
sundogmonkey
When: 15 Nov 17 14:26
RSM 'One to Trade'.

D Fathauer.
Seems to play his best golf around this time of yr & whilst no great success here before this course should suit his game.

Currently trading @ 370+.
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