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06 Feb 17 12:13
Date Joined: 22 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 14,230 | Blogger: Over2.5's blog
Just opened up the market for the first time. wont be long coming around again. anyone see any value? backed hideki the last few years and he let me down so cant back him at 10/1. think young fowler could be primed very soon. also think sneds offers some value. dont like any at the top of the market
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Report lewisham ranger February 6, 2017 2:16 PM GMT
commentators keep mentioning how Hideki is priming for Augusta... problem is if you put too much pressure on yourself for one tournament then it can often go awry... I'm sure he will win a major soon as he's working harder than everyone in the game. my concern with people like hideki and justin thomas is have they peaked too early in the year. You  look at the way Spieth is just quietly plodding along and it screams peaking for Augusta.

seems to me though that dustin has played much the best of the top four in the market over the last year, and i do think the winner will come from those guys. spieth is also interesting but seems to have problems with ball striking and the question is can he overcome those scars from last year?
Report deansthemann February 6, 2017 2:27 PM GMT
Tiger's next tournament... goes off at 80/1... everyone saying he should be 800/1.
Writes the biggest story of the 21st century and wins by 1 from Mickleson.

If Woods doesn't start... Mickleson wins by 3 after Sergio blows a 5 shot lead turning for home on the back 9.
Report Over2.5 February 6, 2017 2:48 PM GMT
i will shed tears if tiger somwhow dawns the green jacket
Report lewisham ranger February 6, 2017 4:31 PM GMT
deansthemann 06 Feb 17 14:27 Joined: 06 Sep 11 | Topic/replies: 899 | Blogger: deansthemann's blog
Tiger's next tournament... goes off at 80/1... everyone saying he should be 800/1.
Writes the biggest story of the 21st century and wins by 1 from Mickleson.

If Woods doesn't start... Mickleson wins by 3 after Sergio blows a 5 shot lead turning for home on the back 9.

think you're totally underestimating how good these young guys like Spieth are... hard to believe they're all going to be dominated by these old farts.

One or two might be able to creep through but Tiger as much as I'm willing to beat the drum for him genuinely seems a crock now, Phil hasn't won in years and his domination of augusta is over, and Sergio is hardly a cash machine when it comes to majors

Rose is interesting. confidence gone to a new high because of OBE and olympics win and I always thought he'd win a green jacket
Report ccmac1975 February 6, 2017 5:17 PM GMT
Rahm. ....Sergio. ......Hatton
Report Mighty Whites 2008 February 6, 2017 5:40 PM GMT
think you're totally underestimating how good these young guys like Spieth are... hard to believe they're all going to be dominated by these old farts.

US Masters 2016 - Danny Willet wins with old fart Lee Westwood coming second
US Open 2016 - Dustin Johnson (32) wins very old fart Jim Furyk finishes in a tie for second
The Open 2016 - An old fart special. Old fart Henrik Stenson beats very old fart Phil Mickleson, Steve Stricker geriaturic old fart and JB Holmes finish in the top 5
The PGA 2016 - Old fart Jimmy Walker wins his first major.

The Masters is renowned for the old guard to contend, year on year you get a geriatric up there in contention.

Of the big four none are exactly ripping up trees. On current form Matsuyama is the hottest property in golf but there will be others who find form as we approach but ultimately it comes down to the four days in April. As we see often players can sometimes find something and with from no where.
Report jedi sophie February 6, 2017 7:24 PM GMT
Matsuyama is a tremendous player BUT if he putts like he did in the PHOENIX he has literally NO chance in the Masters...And i genuinely think he is a top ten player at worst!

Spiffy gotta be the eway play right now!Timeform squiggle against last years performance though!

Imagine Bubba winning with a pink ball??Will they even allow it??Laugh
Report lewisham ranger February 6, 2017 9:55 PM GMT
mighty that well be true but genuinely feel one of the top four will win it this year... i mean if tiger mick and sergio are dominating it feels like 2002, which is very normal for golf, but I just can't see it happening.

jedi rose seems to do well at masters despite being a terrible putter... matsu best chance might be us open as think he does well at venues like sawgrass and similar places where they have us open style conditions...
Report therhino February 7, 2017 10:54 AM GMT
US Open style conditions at Sawgrass?
Report lewisham ranger February 7, 2017 12:19 PM GMT
well what I mean is last year at sawgrass the greens were playing lightning fast on the saturday, players were complaining about them like they usually do at the US open. Anyway Matsuyama was one of the few to have a very good round and it stuck in my mind that this guy loves putting on ultra fast greens

I have a feeling anyway that his first major won't be the mickey mouse pga but one of the big three, it would be nice for a japanese player to win a major would it not?
Report kincsem February 7, 2017 5:45 PM GMT
My very early thoughts are that price will be bigger on the outsiders by a factor of four in Masters week.
Last year I went big on Smylie Kaufman at about 420s (2nd after 54 holes).
I'll be bottom feeding again this year, and betting too much.
I hope Tiger plays.  I like a laugh.
Report Mighty Whites 2008 February 7, 2017 7:49 PM GMT
The current crop are nothing like Tiger when he was dominating. Not sure Garcia has ever dominated. His win in Dubai was only his 12th on the european tour.

At the height of his powers Tiger had OWGR of over 20 points and at one point had a bigger gap between him and second and second and last in the rankings. Currently no one has more than an average of ten points.

In the early 2000s both Tiger and Vijay won 9 times in a season.

The current crop have the following number of wins over the last three years.

Jason Day: 8
Jordan Spieth: 7
Dustin Johnson: 4
Justin Thomas: 4
Rory McIlroy: 4

Day, McIlroy, Johnson and Spieth may pick up the four majors this year but I think its more likely they won't win one between them than all four.

Despite the hype golf is lacking a dominant figure at the moment.
Report FRANKIETHETORY February 7, 2017 8:35 PM GMT
I had by far the biggest bet I've ever had on golf, on Mickelson last year. Missed the cut.

I wouldn't be put off Spieth just yet. Though wouldn't dive in at the price atm.
Report zog February 7, 2017 8:36 PM GMT
History, Willet repeat itself?
Report lewisham ranger February 8, 2017 10:28 AM GMT
maybe you're right mighty but I think one of them will win the masters.

as for willett, I'll be amazed if he wins. had a psychological let down after winning it last year. also last year he was going into the event in great form, not the case this year.
Report therhino February 8, 2017 11:19 AM GMT
Don't think Willett will ever win another green jacket, worst winner in many a year for me, he was just the lucky bastard in position when Spieth had his meltdown. Plenty of time for everyone to play themselves into form though, we're still 2 weeks away from the Florida swing.
Report lewisham ranger February 16, 2017 11:41 PM GMT
my personal feeling is that dustybin should be backed for the masters.

I feel like out of the top players, with the possible exception of matsuyama, he's played the best golf in the last 12 months.

he also seems in a good place mentally with his fiancee and family life.

jordan seems a bit frail mentally still, jason day seems anxious about the world number one spot and rory is struggling with an injury.

in fact I'd make dustybin the fav.
Report kincsem March 18, 2017 2:29 PM GMT
Danny Willett played a great last round in 2016 but the contenders stepped aside.

Jordan Speith finished round 3 with bogey, double bogey, and had a mare at the 12th in the final round.
Smylie Kaufman, 2nd after round 3 to 29th with a final round 81.
Hideki Matsuyama, two behind after round 3, choked badly going six over for the first six holes in the 4th round.
Jason Day, level with Danny Willett after round 3, shot 73 last round.
Bernhard Langer, two behind after three rounds, shot 79 and finished 24th.

Five players stepped aside and Danny eased to the win.
Report lewisham ranger March 18, 2017 6:30 PM GMT
rory, dj, spieth.

one of those three I'm certain will win but not sure which one

help Crazy
Report sewter lives again March 19, 2017 3:52 PM GMT
kingsem you left out Westie he choked real hard on the 16th tee in fact they heard it in the clubhouse
Report crystalhunt March 19, 2017 8:35 PM GMT
Tommy Fleetwood looks tasty at 100/1 - better player than Willett.
Report bigH March 19, 2017 11:36 PM GMT
kingsem you left out Westie he choked real hard on the 16th tee in fact they heard it in the clubhouse

I smelled it from my house and I was 3000 miles away
Report kincsem March 20, 2017 4:13 PM GMT
My pick

1) Daniel Berger - 100
2) Dustin Johnson - 9.2
3) Thomas Pieters - 70
4) Jon Rahm - 40
5) Adam Scott - 30
Report gibs March 20, 2017 11:05 PM GMT
I have one main strategy at the Masters....back Spieth in bits n bobs all year, then lay off at evens in play for half the profit...a winning formula for the past 2 years (could even be last 3 yrs , can't quite remember)...only other bet is on grillo, mainly just because he is one of my "stable"
Report BIG CAT LEON LETT March 21, 2017 8:27 PM GMT
Interesting lewisham ranger.Where have you seen that Matsuyama is working harder than anyone else in the game please?
Report lewisham ranger March 21, 2017 9:49 PM GMT
Well I'm not sure he is I was probably exaggerating a little bit

But I do recall hearing something on sky sports some months ago where someone was saying how he was staying behind on the putting greens longer than other players

anyway my feeling is, and the evidence is mounting, that he's going to win a major soon. I also recall something that faldo said at phoenix about matsu was priming everything towards a masters bid. Everything was geared towards that basically.

sometimes when you put all your eggs in one basket it can give you too much pressure. And he has a huge following in japan that adds to that pressure. Add to the fact that I would still slightly rate him behind mcilroy, speith, johnson, day so it's not all sweetness and light

Should be a titanic masters this year
Report kincsem March 22, 2017 11:57 AM GMT
Yes.  Matsuyama needs to work on his putting.
His PGA Tour strokes gained (SG) putting:  2017 178th; 2016 103rd.

I used these four stats arrive at my guess at the winner:
(1) SG Approach the green (2) SG putting  (3) Par 5 going for the green (4) Driving: Distance to Apex

Dustin Johnson has the best overall for four categories 11th, 26th, 11th, 5th in 2017 when I did my list
On stats he win the US Masters in a hack canter.
Thomas Pieters is 2nd in my list but we only have 2017 stats for him.
Gary Woodland is very good tee to green, but his 76th in putting stats is not a disaster.

Justin Thomas putting a little off
Rickie Fowler Par 5 going for the green not too good
Francesco Molinari putting and distance to apex not good
Jimmy Walker putting and apex not good enough
Jordan Speith distance to apex well below especially in 2017
J B Holmes and Brooks Koepka approach the green poor
Justin Rose approaches and putting not great this year
Adam Hadwin par 5 going for green and dist to apex weak
Shane Lowry putting poor
Phil Mickelson putting good, the rest poor
Patrick Reed bad approaches (near the bottom)
Sergio Garcia putting 190th in the stats in 2017
Brandt Snedeker is from 53rd to 94th in the four categories this year
Report lewisham ranger March 22, 2017 6:54 PM GMT
have to agree with kinscem here even though I've already backed spieth.

johnson looks more or less unbeatable at the moment.

I mean if you compare the way they've hit the ball over the last year or so it's light years in terms of difference and yet they're pretty much the same price.
Report sewter lives again March 22, 2017 7:00 PM GMT
I'm starting to think the same about DJ.

If you think back to the WGC in Mexico DJ missed loads of short putts and still won
Report lewisham ranger March 22, 2017 7:06 PM GMT
spieth hitting it terrible.

think we have the wrong fav for the masters people, sad as is to say it. Sad
Report kincsem March 23, 2017 10:40 AM GMT
Daniel Berger 7 under par after 13 holes yesterday beating J B Holmes 7&5.
Luckily I have a little 120s and 130s for the US Masters.
Report kincsem March 23, 2017 10:40 AM GMT
Daniel Berger 7 under par after 13 holes yesterday beating J B Holmes 7&5.
Luckily I have a little 120s and 130s for the US Masters.
Report kincsem March 23, 2017 10:44 AM GMT
Dustin Johnson 6 or 7 under after 15 holes won 5&3.  Good form.
Report Mighty Whites 2008 March 23, 2017 11:38 PM GMT
Spieth often hits it terrible, his short game and putting especially mid range putting is what has him where he is.

When his putting declines he will slip away from the top of the game.

The joy of betfair is you can lay as well back if you think his price is wrong then take the appropriate action.
Report BigField March 24, 2017 10:31 AM GMT
Paul Casey 50/1 is one I'm going to play e/w, he's got good Masters place form and think I recall him coming fifth in Mexico recently, it was either Mexico or another recent tourney.
Report Asparagus Man March 24, 2017 9:17 PM GMT
Woodland one for me that fits the profile but his withdrawal from the WGC due to personal reasons has to be a concern
Report therhino March 24, 2017 10:01 PM GMT
DJ does look unstoppable. At this time last year, Day looked the same. Won 6 of 13 events heading into Augusta including his last 2 tourneys he played. Was -5 after 9 holes in round 1 and then hit a brick wall. So it is hard to look past DJ but need to not put the blinkers on as things can go wrong real quick on that course.
Report lewisham ranger March 24, 2017 10:38 PM GMT
d j should be 4/6, 7-1 must be the greatest bet of all time

imagine if this was woods in his prime, would you get 7-1?

ok it isn't but is dj playing any worse?

only concern for me would be a long weekend here and playing next week as well, is it too much and has he peaked too soon
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