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G Hall
18 Jan 18 14:01
Date Joined: 26 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 7,118 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
Is it realistic , I have been on here for more years than I care to remember. I have been full time for a while, and part time and during all that time have had a lot of fluctuations mostly caused when I wasn't taking betting seriously.

I can retire next year, and 20K per annum on top of a pension would be satisfactory for me. I have much experience of betting and have a lot of various successful strategies. The big bug bear is of cause discipline or rather the lack of at certain times.

I recently read a book called Trading in the Zone which I too easily identified with, I thought he wrote the book about me lol.

I would appreciate any feedback and also details of when premium charge kicks in.TIA.
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Report starship January 18, 2018 7:47 PM GMT
i know people who get 100k a year and are now on the premium chrge.
so yes it can be done, but you got to put the work in.
if any sythem worked everyone would be doing it
Report Charlie January 18, 2018 8:38 PM GMT
The rules for pc are pretty clear just read them.

Of course you can earn £20k a year you could also lose that amount. Depending on what you've done before I think you'd be very hard pushed to get £20k in your first year. What size bank do you have? How long have your successful strategies been successful for and are they scalable?

I find discipline quite difficult to get a real handle on. I'm not talking about obvious cases of ill-discipline like chasing loses but more about about how rigorous you are or should be in following your trading rules. Of course that may mean my trading rules aren't sufficiently defined. There are many obvious pitfalls such as over and under betting, over and under confidence, boredom, tiredness, fun bets, lack of concentration, not drinking enough alcohol, impulse bets, etc. All these things get covered in books. I tend to bet quite a lot on intuition which I'm not sure if it's lack or discipline or not; if the bets come off then I think it's good if they don't then it's lack of discipline.

It's hard to make a serious profit, any anyone who say's it's not I wouldn't believe. The figure often banded about of 95% losers is probably accurate or even on the low side. Pick any sport, bring up some old forum posts and see how many are still posting.
Report Charlie January 18, 2018 8:41 PM GMT
I think I could have summed that up by saying there's a lot of difference between theory and practice.
Report CLYDEBANK29 January 19, 2018 3:33 PM GMT
Very unrealistic because.

1. You haven't paid premium charge and have no idea how it works
2. You quote lack of discipline
3. It's far harder than it was and you weren't making at least that sort of money when it was easier
4. You are even asking the question.  Your ten years of experiences should tell you.

Premium charge calaculations can be found by clicking on the my account tab, then on the betting activity tab.  It's the bottom option.  If it's not there you are not close to paying it.
Report nathanrh January 19, 2018 11:42 PM GMT
Oh dear!.

You are chasing a pipe dream, one that will likely see you lose a lot of money, making 20k a year on Betfair isn't just something you decide you are going to do to top up your income in retirement, as for the Premium Charge? get the first 250k of profit under your belt first before you worry about that particular problem ;-).

I've said it many times before on a variety of threads but edges on Betfair are incredibly hard to grind out, there are rarely any kind benefactors handing out free money in the markets, you are up against the sharps, algorithm traders, bots, people on lower commission rates than you will ever be, syndicates of mathematicians, etc. add in the crooked nature of some particular sports and its a losing proposition for all but the very few.

Even if you can find an advantage, commission will be a huge barrier, available money will be a problem, you won't be able to snap up huge volume at value prices before the market makers cotton on and erode your margin. Your edge will likely be a slow steady grind and you will need a large bankroll to make that pay to the tune of 20k a year, nevermind the variance which will eat your nerves.

Alternatively, you might be one of the few who have some sort of specialist knowledge, where you are identifying value way above the true price, the problem you will have there is that your advantage will likely be in very few markets thus restricting your opportunity.

If you want 20k a year in retirement, go and do something valuable and be paid for it honestly, leave the Betfair dream for the dreamers ;-).

Report GoBallistic January 20, 2018 10:14 AM GMT
You can win 2k a year and pay quite a big chunk bank in PC, you can win 200k a year and pay zero PC

It really depends on how you bet

The more efficient, disciplined, risk-averse and selective you are, the more likely you are to pay PC.  I'm not really any of those things and have yet to pay it at all.  But I wish I had.  Paying PC would definitely be preferable to paying 50% of my winnings in commission
Report kw January 20, 2018 10:26 AM GMT
You mention 20k. Typically I would expect you unless you have inside knowledge to make no more than 5% of turnover as a profit whether as a backer or layer. This would indicate that you should be prepared to be staking  4/500,000 per annum. Believe me 5% will be a very good average return. Achieve that after commission and then worry about a premium charge.
Report U.A. January 20, 2018 10:57 AM GMT
People who mention lack of discipline for losing bets always concern me. I doubt people ever apply the term lack of discipline to winning bets it always seems to be great skill or a great strategy. Make a note of any bets that you think are down to a lack of discipline before the event starts or before any significant change in price and then look at how that affects your results.

This will determine whether it really is lack of discipline or some kind of fault in your strategy.
Report CLYDEBANK29 January 20, 2018 12:31 PM GMT
What would concern me if I cared is use of the word satisfactory.  Whenever I see the words "lack of discipline" as an excuse, rightly or wrongly, I think BS.  I don't think Harry Findlay had discipline.  I bet if he did he'd have made a lot less.
Report G Hall January 20, 2018 5:29 PM GMT
Thanks lads for your comments it is thought provoking stuff.
Report Charlie January 20, 2018 6:16 PM GMT
To be fair GH the comments deserve a better response than that.
Report G Hall January 20, 2018 7:59 PM GMT
I will respond charlie when I have absorbed them and thought it through. It is not easy to get it right and I have a lot of thoughts of my own. There is a lot of good stuff above.

I will let this month pass and come back with a better response. I also appreciate your assistance with Trading in the Zone a couple of weeks back.
Report nathanrh January 21, 2018 5:23 AM GMT
A 5% edge after commission on BF would frankly be a ticket to millions and even then there would still be the possibility of going broke during the journey (check out Steve's Daily25 blog if you want to see what this looks like in practice). Any advantage betting at those volumes is unlikely to be anywhere near that and variance will play a huge part, you sure as hell won't be using Betfair either, you'll be wanting to take Pinnacle or some other sharp books early prices to get the necessary action.

Lack of discipline is essentially lack of any kind of strategy or to that end any edge. Chimpanzees with darts can pick out winners just as well as anyone with 'lack of discipline' can, your strategy has either a positive expectation or it doesn't, lack of discipline just implies that you overstake, chase losses etc.

There are several good books out there, Buchdahl springs to mind, titles however like 'trading in the zone' I'm afraid don't inspire much confidence, if only we could get in the 'zone' all of our losing bets would suddenly become your money, learn the maths, there isn't a shortcut.

Just my 2c.
Report lewisham ranger January 21, 2018 10:53 AM GMT
i wouldn't set a target. what happens if you are 13k down with a month to go? you'll go on tilt. betting is so up and down that it can't be predicted.
Report pxb January 21, 2018 8:48 PM GMT
You might find this interesting.

I'll summarize it for you.

There are 2 types who can make money gambling. Those who have very high levels of knowledge/skill in particular areas like horses. Those who are very good at assessing and managing risk.

I still make money on bf, with low levels of risk, but nothing like 20K pa.
Report PeteTheBloke February 1, 2018 7:44 PM GMT
The only place where success comes before work is the dictionary. If you can earn above minimum
wage for your hours on here, you'll do well. A job in B+Q might be more rewarding in financial
and non-financial ways.
Report Man'O War February 3, 2018 10:53 PM GMT
I have been here for quite some time now and have been losing every year Sad
Report PeteTheBloke February 4, 2018 2:57 PM GMT
Sorry to hear that. I hope it's only money you can afford.
Report mecca February 20, 2018 11:34 PM GMT
Pardon me for being curious, or nosey, GH. But what would you do if you had a cracking couple of weeks, threw all caution to the wind and won yourself £20k..?

Would you see it as you've "got your year in" and not gamble for the next 11 months or would you keep going to build your bank up?

With your 20k winnings and your pension, you say that this would be satisfactory for you. So would you just stop, and start again 11 or 12 months later?
Report aye robot February 21, 2018 12:18 PM GMT
If you made £15k last year then you've a realistic chance of making £20k this year, but if you lost last year you'll probably lose this year too. If you're not a lifetime winner then forget 20k and just try to make more than zero - or better yet forget about making a profit, bet for fun and do something else for money.

If you're not certain whether you're a lifetime winner or not then you're not. If you were you would know.

Here's a truth that many would rather not acknowledge: It's NOT about discipline. People like to blame discipline for their losses because it's something they feel they could change but if you're getting value bets the issue just doesn't arise. Discipline is a problem for LOSING gamblers - not winning ones. Nobody 'chases' wins. You don't lose because of indiscipline, you lose because you didn't get value, then you make it worse by indiscipline. If your records are showing profits then losses are a bit annoying but they don't cause silly behaviour.

Only a vanishingly small minority of players ever make returns similar to working and they all have specialist skills, knowledge or access. Sticking at it isn't enough, going full time isn't enough and having a large bank just means losing more. If you can't make a profit in your spare time with a little bit of money then you're not going to make it. If you can - that's great, now build up slowly and don't imagine that you can scale your winnings just by scaling your bank - it doesn't work like that.
Report TheBaron February 21, 2018 6:49 PM GMT
You don't lose because of indiscipline, you lose because you didn't get value,

Just because you get value doesn't mean you will win in the short term.  Short term losses can lead to indiscipline and overstaking.
Report Gin February 22, 2018 8:35 AM GMT
aye robot 21 Feb 18 12:18 Joined: 17 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 611 | Blogger: aye robot's blog

You don't lose because of indiscipline, you lose because you didn't get value, then you make it worse by indiscipline. If your records are showing profits then losses are a bit annoying but they don't cause silly behaviour.

I disagree with this aye - I reckon you could give ten people a guaranteed winning system and half of them would still mess it up through indiscipline - particularly if it was a volatile system.
Report Gin February 22, 2018 8:37 AM GMT
Which I guess is the same thing as the Baron is saying! Laugh
Report aye robot February 23, 2018 3:13 PM GMT
Just because you get value doesn't mean you will win in the short term.....

This is a fair point, let me amend my statement a little:
Gamblers VERY RARELY lose because of indiscipline, they lose because you didn't get value, then they make it worse by indiscipline.

My underlying point is the same - people tell themselves all kinds of stories about how they're not winning because of something that they could change, it's part of how they justify keeping going. The truth is that they're just not cut out for it in the same way that I could never drive an articulated truck - I just don't have the spacial awareness.

Kidding yourself that you could have made it as a racing driver/astronaut/footballer is fun and harmless, but those fantasies don't risk leading you into an addictive spiral that could ruin your life. Pretending that with a bit more focus you could be a professional gambler can do.

I've seen the haunted stare of problem gamblers as yet another bet goes wrong and they slide a little further into the pit. It's awful. I'm here to take people's money but I don't want their last penny. Anyone who isn't already a winner is best advised to forget about making a living from gambling and play for fun with a small portion of the money that they have to spare.
Report Charlie February 23, 2018 9:56 PM GMT
Interesting stuff. Would someone like to define indiscipline for me please (not talking about the obvious chasing losses)?
Report TameTheTiger February 25, 2018 12:32 PM GMT
I just rolled a dice 28 times. True odds for each number is 5/1. Paying out at 4/1 each of 6 produced these results.

1 -8
2 +2
3 +7
4 -13
5 -3
6 -13

so, backing 1,2 and 3 each roll, produced a 1 point profit from 84 single bets,despite the odds paid out at being 20% shorter than true value.
So even having a gold mine (laying 20% under true value) is no guarantee to success after 84 bets.
Report aye robot February 25, 2018 1:54 PM GMT
5/1 paying at 4/1 is decimal 6 paying at 5.

Decimal 6 paying at 5 is 3.3% edge and returns about 4% of your liability on average. That's nearly not enough to guarantee a profit over 84 bets.

Strictly your profit is never guaranteed but the probability of a  positive return tends towards 1 (or 100% if you prefer).
Report aye robot February 25, 2018 1:57 PM GMT
.....tends towards 1 (or 100% if you prefer) as the length of the series of results increases.
Report Ghetto Joe February 25, 2018 2:24 PM GMT
I don't think it's particularly hard to make £20K on Betfair but it generally requires more effort than  people are willing to put in. Most people who've been on here a while will probably have spotted plenty of ways they can turn a profit   but those 'edges' are usually too infrequent or considered too small they just don't bother taking advantage of them. I think the real question asked in all these type of posts is can I make £20K pa with little effort and the answer is no.
Report aye robot February 25, 2018 3:03 PM GMT
To be fair Joe it is pretty difficult - take TTT's dice throw example above, that returns 4% before comm, 3.5% after comm at 3%. To get to the OP's 20k he'd have to match about £565,000. That's an awful lot of sensible £10 liability bets - if he found one for every UK and Irish horse race it'd take him 4 years.
Report aye robot February 25, 2018 3:04 PM GMT
....£565,000 would be his matched liability, not backers stakes.
Report ericster February 25, 2018 3:08 PM GMT
I'm just south of retirement age and finally, I think, I'm making inroads into that great bug bear that G.Hall mentioned in his OP.
Have i got a good/worthwhile/ultimately profitable strategy?
Good question and good luck GH.
The dream lives on, for now.
Report TheBaron February 26, 2018 4:15 PM GMT
Most people who've been on here a while will probably have spotted plenty of ways they can turn a profit

Oh really!
Report ericster February 28, 2018 2:28 PM GMT
Lol Baron.

I shall keep trying for now and what the hell, I'm just another two-quidder. What harm can it do?
Report aye robot February 28, 2018 5:17 PM GMT
what the hell, I'm just another two-quidder. What harm can it do?

None at all if that's the case. Good luck, I hope you succeed.
Report ericster February 28, 2018 7:22 PM GMT

Feb 28, 2018 -- 5:17PM, aye robot wrote:

what the hell, I'm just another two-quidder. What harm can it do?None at all if that's the case. Good luck, I hope you succeed.

Thanx robot.
Don't we all mate, don't we all.

Report abetfairtrader March 2, 2018 8:12 PM GMT
I'll like to suggest here my page, where I'll show my evolution from just 200€. I'll share my strategies and my ideas.
Report TameTheTiger March 3, 2018 11:53 AM GMT
aye robot

The backer in my example is betting into a 120% market.He can expect a 20% loss on his stakes.Doesnt that make my edge as the layer in the example 20% ?
Report aye robot March 3, 2018 4:55 PM GMT
True odds 6 is 0.166 probability (1/6).
A price of 5 implies 0.2 probability, the difference is 0.033 - or 3.3% - that's your edge on a single bet.
On all 6 selections that's your 120% layers book, i.e there is 20% total edge available in the market - but your bet is only 1 selection.

The backer's bet has an expected value of -20%. He wins £0.8 for every pound he risks. However - to get his 20p the layer has to risk £5, so his expected value is just 4%.

If the layer got more than one selection his expected value would improve because he'd be risking the same money for a better outcome and if he layed all outcomes he'd get the full 20% edge and 20% expected value.
Report aye robot March 3, 2018 5:25 PM GMT
Actually I got that wrong - sorry. The layers EV is 5% - he risks £4 a throw for his 20p.
Report aye robot March 3, 2018 5:40 PM GMT
w.t.f now I'm confusing myself... sorry. The edges are correct but I got the evs all wrong, then I got them wrong again.

Ok: after 6 average bets with £1 stake the backer has lost a pound - IE he's lost £1 5 times and won £4 once. On those 6 bets he has risked £6 so his expected value is -16.6%, not 20% like I said above.

On the other side the layer has won £1, but he risked £24 (£4 six times) to get it, his expected value is 4.1% ish.
Report TameTheTiger March 3, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
Yes I get it,thanksGrin
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