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traicue
08 Jan 18 16:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 16
| Topic/replies: 241 | Blogger: traicue's blog
Just wondering why there weren't more talks and discussion on betting systems on here. Even with my lack of interest in football, it is probably like the most popular sport for betting on. With the amount of games, it makes it suitable for me to system test a strategy. Feel free to give your opinions or knowledge on any systems you have come across.
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Report DFCIRONMAN January 8, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
"most popular sport to bet on"...........Why is that?

We believe we know about football and or egos take over......Trouble is football is hard to know when teams/players are going to have an "off day".

Another factor that makes it difficult to rely on players playing "intelligent"
football is many players are pretty stupid in what they do......for example :-

1. Unable to cross ball past the near post from wing position.
2. Unable to use both feet to kick ball........and they delay moves to get ball onto their "stronger" foot, allowing defenders to get back into defensive positions.
3. Forwards who hit ball straight at keepers....repetitively, instead of learning to hit ball into corner of goal.......AWAY FROM KEEPER!
4. Forwards who header ball repeatedly OVER THE BAR and don't header ball awy from keeper into corner of goal........not at keepers.
5. Players showing no technical skill in striking ball at goal and no awareness where goal is!

Players appear not to work on their skills necessary to be called a footballer.They rather spend time on their tattoosDevilGrin

Coaches who presumably want defenders to pass ball sideways or backwards, rather than improving skill in passing ball forward . This sideways passing etc allows their opponents TIME to get into defensive positions Rather a stupid way to play "football"!

Horse racing is a more reliable sport than football!
Report DFCIRONMAN January 8, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
our egos
Report starship January 8, 2018 7:17 PM GMT
bet to 101% on football and you get what u like on.

bet to 130% on greyhounds and most good judges cannot get a bet
Report traicue January 8, 2018 7:33 PM GMT
just a generally, I believe football is like a main sport compared to say just for example sake..handball? But yes, I suppose horse racing and perhaps other sports are popular. I am looking to test a system in football. I will post my progress here.
Report Charlie January 9, 2018 7:16 PM GMT
Depends on what you mean by a system. If it's something like bet every favourite at odds of 1.5 or less then no. If you mean something like I've studied this game for eight hours, looked at all the relevant stats, know the team and players well and have decided the odds are wrong then yes.
Report ericster February 17, 2018 4:24 PM GMT

Jan 9, 2018 -- 7:16PM, Charlie wrote:


Depends on what you mean by a system. If it's something like bet every favourite at odds of 1.5 or less then no. If you mean something like I've studied this game for eight hours, looked at all the relevant stats, know the team and players well and have decided the odds are wrong then yes.


I don't doubt that it's possible and the dream lives on.
It's more about playing a numbers game, percentages imo.

Report crystalhunt February 17, 2018 10:59 PM GMT
Some of us have been on here a long time traicue and seen and heard it all. The place used to be buzzing with systems, theories, and epic failures. Nothing I can remember endures and some people have gone to their rest, their hopes dashed of finding the holy grail. I'm sure many did make a living and still do, but they didn't share it on here so good luck in your quest. If it pays off, don't tell anyone.Grin
Report timbuctooth February 20, 2018 5:52 AM GMT
traicue, get yourself back to Specials, laying all early front-runners; best system on here.
Report DP325 May 9, 2018 8:14 PM BST
Hi all. Just wondering how some of the serious punters go about rating teams before an international tournament with the small availability of performance data?
Report wolf3011 May 19, 2018 10:45 PM BST

Feb 17, 2018 -- 10:59PM, crystalhunt wrote:


Some of us have been on here a long time traicue and seen and heard it all. The place used to be buzzing with systems, theories, and epic failures. Nothing I can remember endures and some people have gone to their rest, their hopes dashed of finding the holy grail. I'm sure many did make a living and still do, but they didn't share it on here so good luck in your quest. If it pays off, don't tell anyone.


completely agree, Id go so far as to say no one consistently makes long term profit on football simply betting these days, ... too many variables  and too much randomness for 22 players and dodgy officials but there will always be a new generation trying the impossible

Report ticktocktimmy May 31, 2018 7:56 PM BST
system betting, i doubt it. 
however, looking to see where the bookies may be wrong compared to your own evaluation and being selective, possibly.....
Report Slicer June 5, 2018 7:13 PM BST
I am going to Amsterdam to operate my Special World Cup Outright Winner System. I will be Dutching a number of teams to win outright and I won't be losing!
Report padlock June 5, 2018 7:43 PM BST
How many teams you backing slicer ? Was thinking about doing similar ,can only really see four teams who can win it .
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 8:12 PM BST
i devised a system returning about 20% roi which is decent but not worth the time and effort that's involved
saying that it is probably worth it if you use big sums and have a bank which can handle a bit of variance
if anyone wants to know more then PM me and i'll give you the details
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 8:16 PM BST
actually i'm just looking back on the data now and i might pick it up again for the next season

trialled it for 6 weeks

ROI 24.38%

Overall P/L    1024.05
Staked    4200

95% of the bets were odds-on so you're staking a lot to make a little but it is a fairly robust system which takes a few parameters into account
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 8:17 PM BST
that was from 106 bets^
Report Escapee June 5, 2018 9:38 PM BST
@betting_masta  24% is mighty impressive roi

But 106 bets is a very small sample size. ( several 1,000 are needed to start gaining confidence in horse racing / greyhound systems )

would the system lend itself to automation ?

I write 'n run bots for myself and others, if you think there's a chance it could be automated then I'm the man to make that happen.

Let me know if you're interested.
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 11:30 PM BST
it takes data from another website and it requires a bit of human interaction so to speak so don't know if automation would work

the website is b e t d e v i l .com  - don't know if that helps

i am happy to share how I do it

have you got email
Report Slicer June 6, 2018 7:11 AM BST
Mr Padlock-I have got it down to 6, still a good profit, but will probably cut it down to 4 or 5. Good luck with your selections. At least this will maintain an interest for the duration of the tournament after Ingerland get knocked out.
Report betting_masta June 6, 2018 1:18 PM BST
another winner for the system last night was coritiba winning 1-0

one selection tonight is botafogo. odds aren't value but anything above 1.50 is backable
Report Escapee June 6, 2018 2:00 PM BST
betting_masta, I have pm'd you
Report ericster June 9, 2018 12:09 PM BST

Jan 8, 2018 -- 5:08PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


"most popular sport to bet on"...........Why is that?We believe we know about football and or egos take over......Trouble is football is hard to know when teams/players are going to have an "off day".Another factor that makes it difficult to rely on players playing "intelligent" football is many players are pretty stupid in what they do......for example :-1. Unable to cross ball past the near post from wing position. 2. Unable to use both feet to kick ball........and they delay moves to get ball onto their "stronger" foot, allowing defenders to get back into defensive positions.3. Forwards who hit ball straight at keepers....repetitively, instead of learning to hit ball into corner of goal.......AWAY FROM KEEPER!4. Forwards who header ball repeatedly OVER THE BAR and don't header ball awy from keeper into corner of goal........not at keepers.5. Players showing no technical skill in striking ball at goal and no awareness where goal is!Players appear not to work on their skills necessary to be called a footballer.They rather spend time on their tattoosCoaches who presumably want defenders to pass ball sideways or backwards, rather than improving skill in passing ball forward . This sideways passing etc allows their opponents TIME to get into defensive positions Rather a stupid way to play "football"! Horse racing is a more reliable sport than football!


And then there's the ref. He/she could have a stinker also.

As for the opening post and lack of discussion;
If someone HAS figured it out they're hardly likely to shout it for the rooftops I think.

Report roadrunner46 June 12, 2018 11:20 PM BST
apparently the best betting systems for football revolve around the draws, you need to collect all the results from all the leagues in europe for last few years and devise a betting backing/laying strategy
from the statistical data you gather. it helps if you are very good with computers.

goodluck
Report somemuppet June 15, 2018 12:48 AM BST
6 games on a saturday at  3pm .. put into 3 pairs. a and b , c and d , e and f. wait until odds hit 2.0 or less for under 0.5 goals, usually around 22mins lay all games . if goal goes in game d before it hits 2.0 then forget c and d. Proceed with other games. if goal goes in in game b then you red out in game a but make a profit. you have between 22mins and 37 mins to profit. after that you are hoping for a late goal before you break even in the relevant combination. worth sticking with .
Report ericster June 17, 2018 10:34 AM BST

Jun 12, 2018 -- 11:20PM, roadrunner46 wrote:


apparently the best betting systems for football revolve around the draws, you need to collect all the results from all the leagues in europe for last few years and devise a betting backing/laying strategyfrom the statistical data you gather. it helps if you are very good with computers.goodluck


I would, respectfully of course, disagree with the researching and gathering data. For most cowboy racing tipsters their get-out is that " history is no guarantee of the future ". I'd go along with that. It's all about the now imo and trying to read games. Team-sheets? Of course, that might be of some use. But I'd stick how a game appears to be going and yes, that go down the toilet as well. And current form, that has to be a consideration but that is only temporary isn't it.

Report roadrunner46 June 18, 2018 10:47 PM BST
last 10 years of premier league football results, which teams are the most likely to be involved in 3-2
scorelines? i would hazard a guess its more than likely the teams fighting relegation every year.
Report ericster June 19, 2018 3:31 PM BST
You get the most unlikely 0-0 draws also when teams are in  relegation battle.

League-table positions are ARE a consideration imo and I never touch cup-games.

This world cup a case in point.
Report nathanrh June 21, 2018 2:32 AM BST
My opinion for what its worth is that all public betting systems for anything are a total crock. If you actually were able to achieve some of the edges banded about on this thread you would have a virtual license to print money (the very last thing you'd do is share it).

I can't stress enough to everyone the resources you are up against on BF, market makers that offer the money up for Vietnam division 2 games or similar such quality are most definitely not charities, anyone betting on just about anything and everything is highly unlikely to have an edge.

The key is to specialise, to develop a set of criteria that the market has potentially overlooked and with football just about any data you can obtain publicly has already been factored into the prices by someone far smarter than you, either that or you specialise solely in Vietnam division 2.....

Anyone can do some statistical retro-fitting to produce a system, with any set of known results it is relatively easy to define a set of filters that excludes enough losers to look like a winning strategy, but others are crunching exactly the same data and markets adjust incredibly efficiently to grind those edges down to losses after commission.

Gl to all.
Report ericster June 21, 2018 4:13 PM BST
I'd go along with that nathanrh. Which brings us back to that old chestnut " self-discipline ". If are able to find something that worx, stick with it.
Report betting_masta June 23, 2018 10:02 PM BST
where's all the money going then?
there's millions turned over in the football markets every single day - somebody is up - where/who is he?? you can't tell me everyone is breaking even
Report betting_masta June 23, 2018 10:02 PM BST
it's probably the pareto principle. 80% of the money on betfair is going to 20% of the people. that means 80% on here are losing
Report nathanrh June 24, 2018 8:13 AM BST
The money is going (in no particular order) to the following:

1. Betfair themselves, doesn't matter who is winning, the commission keeps rolling in, I'm horrified when I check my BF points and realise just how much of an edge this sucks out.
2. Fixers / Insiders / In-the-know syndicates - where predictability of results covers 60% premium charges.
3. Market makers - specialist businesses that grind out 0.5-1% edges through favourable commission arrangements.
4. Other books laying off liabilities on BF.
5. A small number of clever individuals most likely using data driven or specialised approaches to grinding out a living.

If you aren't one of the above you are paying for the above ;-).

The problem is, "3% pa for life" doesn't excite anyone, especially not gamblers, even though it would be an incredibly lucrative proposition if you could just keep turning over bets.
Report ericster June 24, 2018 5:23 PM BST
Interesting thoughts nathanrh.
Report betting_masta June 24, 2018 7:26 PM BST
agree about the 3% thing pa. most people want it fast and that's why they lose. "winning" in that way is actually incredibly boring and a lot of people gamble for the "fun" or the enjoyment in whatever way, and if they win great. the point is there is lots of money floating around, all you need to do is put more work in than 99% of people will do and you can make that 3%+ pa
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