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traicue
08 Jan 18 15:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Jan 16
| Topic/replies: 94 | Blogger: traicue's blog
Just wondering why there weren't more talks and discussion on betting systems on here. Even with my lack of interest in football, it is probably like the most popular sport for betting on. With the amount of games, it makes it suitable for me to system test a strategy. Feel free to give your opinions or knowledge on any systems you have come across.
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Report ericster June 21, 2018 4:13 PM BST
I'd go along with that nathanrh. Which brings us back to that old chestnut " self-discipline ". If are able to find something that worx, stick with it.
Report betting_masta June 23, 2018 10:02 PM BST
where's all the money going then?
there's millions turned over in the football markets every single day - somebody is up - where/who is he?? you can't tell me everyone is breaking even
Report betting_masta June 23, 2018 10:02 PM BST
it's probably the pareto principle. 80% of the money on betfair is going to 20% of the people. that means 80% on here are losing
Report nathanrh June 24, 2018 8:13 AM BST
The money is going (in no particular order) to the following:

1. Betfair themselves, doesn't matter who is winning, the commission keeps rolling in, I'm horrified when I check my BF points and realise just how much of an edge this sucks out.
2. Fixers / Insiders / In-the-know syndicates - where predictability of results covers 60% premium charges.
3. Market makers - specialist businesses that grind out 0.5-1% edges through favourable commission arrangements.
4. Other books laying off liabilities on BF.
5. A small number of clever individuals most likely using data driven or specialised approaches to grinding out a living.

If you aren't one of the above you are paying for the above ;-).

The problem is, "3% pa for life" doesn't excite anyone, especially not gamblers, even though it would be an incredibly lucrative proposition if you could just keep turning over bets.
Report ericster June 24, 2018 5:23 PM BST
Interesting thoughts nathanrh.
Report betting_masta June 24, 2018 7:26 PM BST
agree about the 3% thing pa. most people want it fast and that's why they lose. "winning" in that way is actually incredibly boring and a lot of people gamble for the "fun" or the enjoyment in whatever way, and if they win great. the point is there is lots of money floating around, all you need to do is put more work in than 99% of people will do and you can make that 3%+ pa
Report Slicer June 26, 2018 12:46 PM BST
3% p.a.-- SO to make 30k a year one would have to turn over 1 million a year. I would say that most on here would settle for 30k a year BUT who among us is prepared to risk/turn over 1 mill? As for me, I wouldn't get out of bet for a paltry 30k a year. If you are prepared to settle for that, go and get a proper job so as not to risk 1 mill. And in the past BetFairs own figures showed that approx. 1.1% of BetFair users make a sustainable living profit p.a. on here. So we are all up against it unless we have the Edge. And as far as I know, The Edge has not left U2 so most of us are up against it!!! I hope this clarifies the matter.
Report trebor June 26, 2018 2:58 PM BST
Risking a million a year is not the same as turning over a million a year, turning over a million a year you would probably never have more than a few hundred at risk at any one time.
Report ericster June 26, 2018 4:52 PM BST

Jun 26, 2018 -- 8:58AM, trebor wrote:


Risking a million a year is not the same as turning over a million a year, turning over a million a year you would probably never have more than a few hundred at risk at any one time.


Exactly.

You just need to have plan that works. Seemples.

Report ericster June 26, 2018 4:57 PM BST
Also, hopefully, your betting-bank will, or SHOULD BE, profit-based. So all you ever risked was your start-up. To be recouped when you start the creaming off process.
Report Slicer June 26, 2018 6:59 PM BST
My posts were based on laying. So I would certainly have to be risking a million to win 30k. Also turning theory into reality is much more difficult than many novices on here believe! I have developed a laying method on the horses and I lay at odds of up to 30. That is sneered at in many quarters as being too high a price at which to lay. If my method picks a selection, I don't care what the price is as long as its not over 30. In the past weeks I have been risking up to £1500 a selection. Let's say 6 selections a day on average-it would only take me approx. 160 days to risk 1 mill in total. I hope this clarifies the matter. All figures approximate.
Report trebor June 26, 2018 9:10 PM BST
Well laying makes it even easier and less risky to hit the 30k target, I think you will find it is changing the sport from football to horse racing and laying 30/1 shots makes the difference, but you are still no where near risking a million, Lay 666 straight 30/1 winners in 111 days and you will have lost a million, but that is little unlikely.


I don't agree with this 3% profit thing either I think it is a fair bit higher than that, I know nothing about football, in fact I could only name one current England player and certainly do far better than 3% and with very little risk.
Report Slicer June 27, 2018 7:30 AM BST
Fair enough. Thanks for your reply. Whatever works is the way to go. The bottom line is the profit/loss account. Good luck.
Report nathanrh June 30, 2018 11:11 PM BST
trebor.

3% is a massively lucrative proposition over the long term and on here it is relatively easy to turnover a large amount of money.

Of course in a relatively short period of time or sequence of bets one can show an ROI many times better than my hypothetical 3%, but the more you play the more likely it is you mean revert to your actual true edge, and that is the rub ultimately, the more you play, the more you need to play (earning a living) the more likely you approach that true figure and that leads me on neatly to the point below.....

On a sport such as mainstream football, those 3% edges (likely much higher because of BF's commission) definitely don't exist. If you could avoid the commission that edge would be 6-8%.....that would be a virtual license to print money and there would still be a reasonable statistical probability you could go bust along the way.

I'm not saying you can't make it pay but being ignorant to the resources you are up against makes me seriously question the likelihood of someone being a long term winner ;-).

Gl.
Report ericster July 1, 2018 9:50 AM BST

Jun 30, 2018 -- 5:11PM, nathanrh wrote:


trebor.3% is a massively lucrative proposition over the long term and on here it is relatively easy to turnover a large amount of money.Of course in a relatively short period of time or sequence of bets one can show an ROI many times better than my hypothetical 3%, but the more you play the more likely it is you mean revert to your actual true edge, and that is the rub ultimately, the more you play, the more you need to play (earning a living) the more likely you approach that true figure and that leads me on neatly to the point below.....On a sport such as mainstream football, those 3% edges (likely much higher because of BF's commission) definitely don't exist. If you could avoid the commission that edge would be 6-8%.....that would be a virtual license to print money and there would still be a reasonable statistical probability you could go bust along the way.I'm not saying you can't make it pay but being ignorant to the resources you are up against makes me seriously question the likelihood of someone being a long term winner ;-).Gl.


I wouldn't necessarily go along with your suggestion that " the more you play the more you need to play. "


I would respectfully suggest that with experience that a pro gains, he, or she, cuts their plays to an absolute minimum but ups the ante. No?

Report Slicer July 1, 2018 11:58 AM BST
Ericster-you are absolutely right. But only PROPUNTERS like you and me with extensive and long experience know this. Others have to learn it the hard way! It's not how long it takes, it is how much it costs!
Report ericster July 1, 2018 12:03 PM BST
Slicer,
I'm no pro but I'm finally coming to terms with the reality of what is.
Just an old man now looking for a bit of profit.
Report Slicer July 1, 2018 1:13 PM BST
You will get there -if you live long enough and I am NOT being facetious!
Report ericster July 1, 2018 1:22 PM BST
" Live long enough"?

Do I care?

Just trying to get by.

Thanks Slicer.
Report freddiewilliams July 1, 2018 2:43 PM BST
Smarkets. Matchbook. Zero percent...
Report nathanrh July 1, 2018 9:01 PM BST
ericster,

I know you understand my point(s) from discussions we've had in the past.

What I'm essentially saying is that 3% edges (again don't forget the commission, the 0% books have it priced in so no advantage there) aren't just lying around here on a daily basis in mainstream football markets for someone to take advantage of, sharps bet very selectively and stake usually using some form of Kelly only when they are sure it is advantageous over the market.

Assuming you are a 'sharp' identifying value, do you really think with all the automation and market making resources out there you will be able to snap up lots of value without the market adjusting and eroding your margin? & then don't also forget 'variance', even those that can identify value long term can go bust in a long losing streak.

So many on here are simply just taking punts on anything and everything that BF has to offer, edges everywhere - and if you are paying your bills with BF how tempting will it be to take risks and blow your bank betting in markets you have no advantage over.

This is a HARD game; underestimating it or relying on 'systems' will find you a one way trip to the poorhouse.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 9:58 AM BST
nathanr,

I'm not sure that I understand your post or why you posted it.

I shall just keep amusing myself in a serious kind of way, if that makes any sense, and I shall either make a few quid or I won't. Whatever.

Enjoying the thread.

Keep posting guys.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 10:33 AM BST
Can I just say that I think you guys, and I've been there, seem to spend countless hours crunching numbers driven by words like margin,percentages, tying yourselves in knots with results that happened last week, last month, last year.

You over complicate imo.

Keep it simple.

If you have any sort of an inclination that something might be occurring and then re-occurring , seeing any sort of a pattern/trend/whatever you want to call it emerging, go after it single-mindedly and you don't need a calculator to see if it's working. Just look at your a/c balance. It sinks or it swims.

And by the way I would strongly suggest that you won't make ANYTHING work until you stick to it,

SELF-DISCIPLINE

SELF-DISCIPLINE

SELF-DISCIPLINE.

End of.

Sincere regards, and GOOD LUCK.
erics.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 1:21 PM BST
nathanrh.

Interesting posts, not sure we are talking about the same thing as I am coming from a trading angle and maybe your 3% is a betting number?  But I am also going to guess that you will tell me it makes no difference as it depends on the value obtained?

Have seen many posts on here over the years on this subject and guess the general theme of them would be getting more negative over the years, it is for that reason I am grateful that many of them go rite over my head, still remember 45 years ago at school thinking "who is ever gonna need this algebra cr@p"  I don't disagree with a lot of what you post, but do disagree with your comment at the end of your post about the 5 ways people win on Betfair "if you are not one of the above you are paying for the above", you seem to only see the negative, have to much reliance in your figures and little faith in what other methods produce.

17 years ago when I was new to exchanges if I saw a thread like this one,  it would start me thinking about ways to create a system, many times while walking the dog or falling asleep at night I would think of a way doing it, only to find out that when put down on paper something was amiss. I knew if it was possible no one would ever give away their systems, but remember thinking that maybe someone could just be kind enough let me know if it was possible.

Well I am happy to tell you that you what I would have liked to have known 17 years ago that it is possible. But I also agree with nathanr that football is one of the easiest sports for compilers to be spot on mathematically with prices at any given time before or in play, but maybe with a little help from nathanr I can show you what they don't have control over.

nathanr as I type England are 7.4 to win the World Cup (101.5% market), if I bet £100 on them and hypothetically did that 100 times in an exact same situation and they won 15 times of those 100 what would my ROI be?



Ericster ..I would respectfully suggest that with experience that a pro gains, he, or she, cuts their plays to an absolute minimum but ups the ante. No?


Being selective is the biggest advantage you can have, but for me size of bet depends on the market, two golf markets last 4 days I used completly diferent sized stakes as one a lot less liquid than the other, and could give away lots if needing to get out of a trade, I always pay more attention the loss than the potential winnings.  Pre off football market would use larger stakes as will do in The Open golf in a couple of weeks time.

As you say self discipline is good as well of course, bit dangerous being on any betting site if you do not have discipline.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 2:46 PM BST
trebor,
the size of bet IS/WOULD BE dictated by the mkt obviously but at the level I'm at right now, barely out of the two-quidding, I manage. Would love mkt size to be factor. The dream lives right now.
Report Andriy July 2, 2018 3:24 PM BST
"not sure we are talking about the same thing as I am coming from a trading angle and maybe your 3% is a betting number"

It's just the edge/ROI/yield (for me all interchangeable as a straight bettor ie bet and leave it, rather than a trader). If, let's say over a football or flat racing season, you bet £10,000 and make a profit of £300 (ie get £10,300 back), 300/10000=3%.


"as I type England are 7.4 to win the World Cup (101.5% market), if I bet £100 on them and hypothetically did that 100 times in an exact same situation and they won 15 times of those 100 what would my ROI be?"

true price=6.67 (100/15)
price obtained=7.4

Edge/ROI=7.4/6.67=1.109 (ie 10.9%)
Report trebor July 2, 2018 3:26 PM BST
With market size I hope I did not come across as if I was placing big bets and needed there to be lots of money in the market to accommodate me, that's never really a problem.Laugh but even if it was a £2 bet you wanted to trade out of in a in-liquid market it will cost you to get out because of gaps in the prices. not so important in mainstream football, and a trading thing rather than a betting angle as well I suppose.


After 17 years on here full time I tend to think of things from a trading side, but I do know the last time I placed a bet on here, and by bet I mean backing something because I felt it was good value and did not intend to trade out. The bet was approx summer of 2006 on Leigh Adams to win a round in the world speedway championship, placed because he was riding on his home track and the odds did not represent that, I let the bet run the whole way and think I won £14!! he was 7/1.  £1000's, £100's or £2 the principle should always be the same only bet what you are really prepared to lose.

I would put aside a betting bank and divide it into bets that don't mean too much and see where it takes you, betting too big or from your pocket and you will miss bets that you know deep down you should have taken.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 3:36 PM BST
And that's another old chestnut.

Staking Plan.
Fixed stake or percentage?

Fixed stake might be considered the real test but even with percentage betting it would soon become apparent if you weren't getting anywhere.

At the moment, mkts permitting, I intend to stake a percentage of my bank. Right now I'm trying to build. I won't be throwing my hard earned at this. Also, my targets are modest. Yes, of course. 100K pa would be nice but if I could find a way of supplementing my pension with a few quid a week when I retire that would great. Assuming I live that long of course.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 3:36 PM BST
Andriy

First glance and I thought I ain't gonna understand this, but no problems I did, well explained, my non mathematically minded way was 8500 loses divided by 9600 wins = 11.46, I was close.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 3:47 PM BST
I suppose percentage you will be placing smaller stakes on your winning bets if you expect losing runs, am sure someone can give good advice on it tho, just takes a lot longer to get your answers now than it used to.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 3:54 PM BST
trebor,
thinking about what you've said, and not reckoning on losing runs, I've thought about, after a win calling my bank ten individual bets, then, if I lose one my bank has nine bets left, counting down to eight seven and so on,on the premise that if it runs out it was a turkey anyway.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 4:17 PM BST
Andriy, nathanrh or anyone,  here is a question then, and I don't know the answer but am pretty sure we will disagree.

I place a bet of £1000 because I believe the odds are going to move 2 ticks in my favour to gain £100 green after trading out. it is a match odds football market.

I have 27 instance's of placing this bet (certainly not all for above stake) of these 11 made the two tick profit, 8 made a one tick profit, 7 scratched and 1 loser of 20% of stake, so £1300 winnings, £27000 staked, what would the ROI be?
Report nathanrh July 2, 2018 5:30 PM BST
Great to see some really interesting responses on this thread - I will add some more of my thoughts later, however trebor.....

2 ticks makes a green £100 profit from a £1000 stake, what were the prices taken?, the arithmetic looks wrong ;-).
Report trebor July 2, 2018 5:52 PM BST
It's the draw in match odds, 3.50 dropping to 3.40 for example.
Report nathanrh July 2, 2018 6:03 PM BST
So back stake is £1000 at 3.5.....lay stake is?

Cheers.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 6:14 PM BST
With you now, my adding up is wrong, would have probably picked up my mistake if using my stakes, but I have used all different stakes, plus I have traded the correct scores at same time as connected of course.


So in reality I would have used the green on the draw and taken it in-play, backed over 2,5 and one maybe 2 other scores, but for this example we will say I laid off for £1000 and greened match scores.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 6:22 PM BST
May still be confusing, laid £1029.40 to green match scores.
Report ericster July 5, 2018 5:40 PM BST
trebor,

just curious.

Are you talking inplay here or before the off.


I had a go at a similar thing with the nil-nil leading up to k/o.
Sometimes, when the pink side of the mkt seems  weak you can go for a quick one but it IS a minefield imo.
Report trebor July 5, 2018 7:59 PM BST
Before Kick off, I would not worry about the weight of money, but lets say the fav is drifting then either the dog or draw has to shorten, fav drifting means less goals expected so favour's the draw shortening, unders will give clues as well
Report ericster July 6, 2018 5:28 PM BST
trebor,
maybe the match mkt is less volatile than the nil-nil but with a grand in there I'd worry.
Report trebor July 6, 2018 7:15 PM BST
ericster

Greened up the win or lose is just £15 a tick, and it is a fully formed market which means you have liquidity to get out normally for no loss.

I highlighted this trade tho because of the discussion on this thread about 'perfect markets' and not being able to make more than 3% ROI, those conditions create good trading conditions imo, and I also chose this trade because of its incredibly small ROI, but is it??

The stake may be £1000 but how much of that stake is really at risk, of course never put any amount of money up if you are not prepared to lose it all, Betfair could go down. If this was a straight bet on the draw then you can expect to lose the full stake more times than you win, so ROI has a use. But when trading trying to make a couple of ticks it seems to me more of a evens bet, make £100 or lose £100 but with an advantage on the winning side, plus if it is a loss you can make it just a £30 loss.

So am I wrong, I know I will get told I am, but you gonna have to convince me.
Report ericster July 7, 2018 11:16 AM BST
trebor,

obviously if you're looking to green up and not stay in all you're really risking is the value of a couple ticks, as you call them. If you're doing this on a regular basis you must be getting something out of it and if you are I can't/wouldn't knock it. Profit is profit. Good for you mate.

Many years ago someone said to me in one of the bf 4ums, and I quote, "It's not about winning, it's about not losing." I've never forgotten that. Think about that for a moment.

Yes of course it's about winning but what if you never EVER had another losing trade?

You'd have to have winning days sometimes and how cool would that be.

So if you're making a profit and you're happy with it GO with it and good luck.
Report ericster July 8, 2018 11:48 AM BST
Yknow?
Lol,
I imagine so many, or maybe not so many, pros watching this, wanting,itching to comment but.....
Report nathanrh August 5, 2018 9:29 PM BST
trebor,

So as I understand your strategy;

1. Back the draw for £1000.
2. Lay the draw as soon as the price ticks downwards (for £15 profit on all selections).

My question:

1. In a liquid market how many minutes of the game (rough guess will do) have to elapse for you to get your lay matched?

And therein lies the problem. Markets on here typically adjust using fairly well understood time decay principles, the draw price gets shifted downwards on a fairly consistent time-delay curve (the rate might be slightly adjusted depending on how the game feels but ultimately the curve works its way down to 1.01 assuming no goals are scored).

I just don't see the 'edge'. Your system works as long as you can trade out, but there will be far too many matches with goals in the first 5 minutes so how can you consistently identify those matches where there won't be an early goal?

Cheers.
Report trebor August 5, 2018 10:30 PM BST
Have never had a goal scored before trading out!!  the trade is before kick off Happy
Report nathanrh August 7, 2018 6:18 PM BST
So effectively you are trying to trade on pre-match price movement (in this instance the draw).

I still don't see the edge unless you have some sophisticated method of predicting that a price will move the way you would like (and by sophisticated I mean something the market doesn't or won't have accounted for).

Sometimes the market will move pre-match the way you want, other times it will drift and others you most likely just have to scratch the trade. All of those will even out in the long run and you will lose to your commission rate. The best I can say is that at least you aren't totally chancing your arm by allowing a position to go in-play.....

Tell me if I'm misunderstanding? or if you are massively in profit over the last 5-10 years. If you are actually in profit be sure to tell me (privately) your selection criteria, I'll be retired in a few years if it holds up ;-).

Cheers.
Report ticktocktimmy December 8, 2018 11:51 PM GMT
While I don't believe you can operate a system based on a rigid selection policy,  a selection process can be devised that is organic and takes into account factors other than recent form/historical data/teamsheets.

i have just started in december a live trial at minimum stakes of a method of selection to lay teams that is so far scarily positive.

it has a strike rate of 88.68% (47/53) with average odds of 4.93 (79.72%), with similar figures previously paper testing and back testing.

so far, it is 20.95 points up at level stakes taking into account 5% commission.

I am now waiting for the wheels to fall off.......................

i know the forum is full of sceptics - and rightly so - therefore i will put up the selections highlighted for tomorrow.

this is usually the kiss of death for any method, but as i'm waiting for this method of selection to regress to the mean anyway, i'll tempt fate.

Lay Ural
Lay Levante
Lay Heracles
Lay AC Horsens
Lay Caen
Lay FC Zurich
Lay Reims
Lay Aris
Lay Charleroi
Lay Torino

I lay 30mins before kick off, providing the odds are in my desired range, therefore one or two of these may not be layed.   I can hear the howls of derision already about aftertiming etc. but it is what it is and you can take this at face value, or pull it to pieces, its up to you.
Report inner city sumo December 9, 2018 11:33 AM GMT
Good luck. Irrespective of whether it works out or not this has always been the fun part of gambling for me- coming up with a hypothesis and testing it.
Report nathanrh December 9, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
I'm with inner city sumo, I wish you good luck (you will need it). Russia, Spain, France, Denmark, Switzerland, Greece, Italy, Holland.....that's some knowledge you must have over the market ;-).

A while back there was a thread on the footie forum laying away teams (in the 5-6 range as I recall), it went down spectacularly and the author just couldn't accept he was making selections blindfolded with a dart.

Please post up the results. After a good number of selections we'll see if you mean revert.
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 9:50 PM GMT
Lay Ural      +0.95
Lay Levante   +0.95
Lay Heracles   +0.95
Lay AC Horsens -5.0
Lay Caen       +0.95
Lay FC Zurich  +0.95
Lay Reims      +0.95
Lay Aris       +0.95
Lay Charleroi  +0.95
Lay Torino     +0.95

Total 9/10  +3.55pts

Today looks ok, but there were 4 other matches that became selections, 3 winners and 1 loser @6.0
Therefore 12/14 (85.7%)  profit +1.4pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
@nathanrh

like i mentioned earlier, i am moving away from looking at fixtures purely in the quantitative sense.  i look more at the qualitative research of fixtures and don't need to have an in depth knowledge of the league.  as you may have already worked out, it is more of a ratings based selection process.

your input is appreciated and as you correctly state, i am waiting for it to revert.........
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
@nathanrh

like i mentioned earlier, i am moving away from looking at fixtures purely in the quantitative sense.  i look more at the qualitative research of fixtures and don't need to have an in depth knowledge of the league.  as you may have already worked out, it is more of a ratings based selection process.

your input is appreciated and as you correctly state, i am waiting for it to revert.........
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:21 PM GMT
@inner city sumo

thanks.  it is fun coming up with an idea and giving it a go.  in the old days on the forum there was always someone trialing something and going down in flames....
i was not going to bother doing this because of the attitudes of some forum users who instead of being constructive with criticism, just talk trash and bring a thread down.
i'll see how this goes for now, not sure how disciplined i can be to post all selections as some come into force quite late, so i'll just take the after timing jibes Happy
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:56 PM GMT
there appear to only be a couple of possible selections until Thursday.

Lay Appalon Smirnis
Lay AGF Aarhus

As before, selections may slip in our out, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 10, 2018 10:24 PM GMT
Lay Appalon Smirnis  +0.95
Lay AGF Aarhus       +0.95

14/16  (87.5%)  profit 3.3pts
Report nathanrh December 10, 2018 11:19 PM GMT
2 winners - just a thought, both of those (especially the Greek one) must have been pretty high prices, can you post up the prices you are laying at? An 87.5% S/R is meaningless unless we can see the prices taken ;-).
Report ticktocktimmy December 11, 2018 1:18 PM GMT
i agree, a %figure is no good without having something to compare it to.  the average odds for selections is 4.96 for the last 150 selections, of which the last 16 have been posted on here.  this gives a value of 79.84% required to break even not taking into account commission.  as you can see from the results the two losing selections were at 6.0.  there is obviously an acceptable operating price range and i use automated software to make the selection 30 mins before kickoff, so it is literally fire and forget.
Report ticktocktimmy December 11, 2018 1:37 PM GMT
lay Livingston

odds have drifted into the price range today.  we'll see what happens @kickoff -30 mins
Report ticktocktimmy December 11, 2018 9:49 PM GMT
lay Livingston  +0.95

15/17 (88.23%)  Profit 4.25pts
Report nathanrh December 11, 2018 11:12 PM GMT
Better factor in that commission rate - it isn't insignificant.

At some point you are going to have to think a little about how to maximise the profits with something other than level staking (correct me if you using something different).

Of course I'm still projecting that your strike rate will mean revert to the prices you are taking and then you will at best lose to your commission rate. A couple of losers on the trot in this price range (they will most definitely happen) and you are down in flames.

Good luck.
Report ticktocktimmy December 12, 2018 8:16 AM GMT
I factor in the commission with the results by allowing 0.95 points for a positive result.
I use level stakes on here as it is easier to keep track and then don’t then get into a discussions over the merits of various staking plans.
I said at the start of this that I expect the results to tail off, with posting the selections on the forum to be the kiss of death...
I’ll maybe go for a little longer and see how it goes. 
Thanks for the interest.
Report ticktocktimmy December 13, 2018 10:13 PM GMT
Lay Argentinos Jrs
Report ticktocktimmy December 13, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
Lay Arminia Bielefeld
Lay Niort

Possibles depending on odds @kickoff
Lay ADO den Haag
Lay Cremonese
Report ticktocktimmy December 14, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
Lay Argentinos Jrs       +0.95
Lay Arminia Bielefeld    -3.9
Lay Niort    odds too high

Possibles depending on odds @kickoff
Lay ADO den Haag  odds to short
Lay Cremonese             +0.95

-2 pts for the day

17/20 (85%)  Profit 2.25pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 14, 2018 10:56 PM GMT
sat 15th

some of these will shorten too much or drift too high, but are possible lays.  i expect 10-12 of the 17 to be in range;

Ankaragucu
Greuther Furth
Bochum
Spezia
Cardiff
Bournemouth
Vejle
Stoke
Reading
Sheff Weds
Dundee
Motherwell
Oviedo
Galatasary
NAC Breda
Grasshoppers Zurich
Mouscron
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 2:20 PM GMT
Ankaragucu odds drifted outside
Greuther Furth      +0.95
Bochum              +0.95

19/22 (86.36%)  Profit 4.15pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 9:03 PM GMT
Spezia              +0.95
Cardiff            odds too high
Bournemouth         +0.95
Vejle               +0.95
Stoke              odds too short
Reading             +0.95
Sheff Weds         odds too high
Dundee             odds too high
Motherwell          -3.1
Oviedo              +0.95
Galatasary          +0.95
NAC Breda           +0.95
Grasshoppers Zurich +0.95
Mouscron            +0.95

sat 15th profit +7.35pts

28/32 (87.5%)  Total Profit 9.6pts
Report nathanrh December 15, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
Good performance. Even your non-selections would have done you proud ;-) (worth tracking these just to see if they deviate from your expected performance i.e. are you excluding potentially more profitable selections?).

One thing I don't like however is the number of selections and leagues you are playing in, since you aren't using anything data driven I remain to be convinced that you have a long term sustainable edge over so many markets (especially one as so well studied as match odds).

Gl.
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 10:27 PM GMT
i understand the most common way to look at match selection is using recent form, h2h, team selection, etc, which needs knowledge of the league/teams et al.
i am looking at selections in a different way.
i'm not sure 15 selections over a full friday/saturday fixture list is a large amount, but then again i don't know other peoples selection patterns or what is considered the norm.
the leagues i play in are the top leagues of europe and south america, which have the data i require available and can provide enough selections.  in fact, after analysis i only use about 40% of the selections that are identified. 

i too remain to be convinced about the strike rate, which is why i am on v small stakes while confidence is gained, or destroyed....

thanks for the interest.
Report ticktocktimmy December 15, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
sun 16th Lays

i only expect about 9-11 of these to be in range

Antalayaspor
Chievo
Emmen
Empoli
Parma
Venezia
Lugano
Trabzonspor
Gimnastic
Tenerife
Zulte-Warengem
Lugo
Zaragoza
Erzurum BB
Pescara
Report ticktocktimmy December 16, 2018 11:20 PM GMT
Antalayaspor      +0.95
Chievo            +0.95
Emmen             -4.6
Empoli            +0.95
Parma             +0.95
Venezia           +0.95
Lugano            +0.95
Trabzonspor       +0.95
Gimnastic         -4.3
Tenerife          +0.95
Zulte-Warengem    +0.95
Lugo              +0.95
Zaragoza        odds too high
Lecce             +0.95   odds came into range
Erzurum BB     mon 17th
Pescara        mon 17th

sun 16th result  11/13 (84.6%)  1.55pts

39/45 (86.7%)  Total Profit 11.15pts
Report nathanrh December 17, 2018 4:47 PM GMT
Still above your target strike rate but as the number of selections increases you are at a point where 1 or 2 more losers will rapidly eat your profit (especially as you are laying well above your average lay odds in the Turkish game today).

Please keep on posting - will be an interesting outcome.
Report ticktocktimmy December 17, 2018 9:04 PM GMT
as you can see from the results, if odds are outside a desired range, the match isn't selected.
it is always an issue with mid/high odds ranges that a couple of poor results can make a dent, another reason to protect your bank with a decent staking plan and discipline....
on the other side of the coin, it is possible to have extended runs of positive results to insure against the bad runs, hopefully good runs come first.....
Report ticktocktimmy December 17, 2018 9:58 PM GMT
mon 17th

Erzurum BB     odds too high
Pescara        mon 17th

sun 16th result  1/1 (100%)  0.95pts

40/46 (86.9%)  Total Profit 12.1pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 6:26 PM GMT
tue 18th

Lay Stuttgart

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover

selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 18, 2018 7:29 PM GMT
tue 18th

Lay Stuttgart    odds to high
Report ticktocktimmy December 19, 2018 9:35 PM GMT
weds 19th

Lay Hannover.  +0.95

41/47   (87.2%)  13.05pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 7:04 PM GMT
Fri 21st

Lay Greuther Furth
Lay Ajjaccio GFCO
Lay Alaves
Report nathanrh December 21, 2018 8:25 PM GMT
2 of these currently winning.....
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 9:24 PM GMT
Fri 21st

Lay Greuther Furth  +0.95
Lay Ajjaccio GFCO   -3.3
Lay Alaves    odds too high

-2.35pts

42/49 (85.7%) 9.75pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
correction

Fri 21st

Lay Greuther Furth  +0.95
Lay Ajjaccio GFCO   -3.3
Lay Alaves    odds too high

-2.35pts

42/49 (85.7%) 10.7pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 21, 2018 9:29 PM GMT
@nathanrh

I saw that.  i must admit I was happy when I saw the selection hadn't been taken on Alaves.
Report nathanrh December 21, 2018 10:02 PM GMT
I'll believe you when you say you didn't take the Alaves selection; however if you intend for anyone to take the thread remotely seriously important to state your odds ranges because excluding losing bets or lying about prices taken is pretty much no.1 on the tipster scam list.

I appreciate you might not care about the above and that you aren't promoting any tipping service so this might not matter to you ;-).

Holiday season might see you experience quite a degree of mean reversion - especially laying away teams.

Continued Gl.
Report ticktocktimmy December 22, 2018 1:18 AM GMT
@nathanrh

you're correct, i am not on here to promote a service, or myself. 
i use an automated bot to lay teams at a certain time within an odds range depending on certain factors.  as you have mentioned before, many of the teams that have not been in range have still been winners.  i think the matches that haven't been in range would still be a plus figure, and also right at the start i took into account a 6.0 loss hat wasn't mentioned.  people can make of that what they wish...
although you are rightly sceptical, thanks for being poitive in your comments.
i didn't start on this thread to be taen seriously, it was just a way to verify what I'm doing for a short period.
if you are interested, I'm on a 89.2% strike rate after 132/148 lays since 3rd November.  do the binomdist on this and see the odds of this being positive with a s/r of 85% (0.85).
Report ticktocktimmy December 22, 2018 1:27 AM GMT
correction of really poor spelling...

@nathanrh

you're correct, i am not on here to promote a service, or myself. 
i use an automated bot to lay teams at a certain time within an odds range depending on certain factors.  as you have mentioned before, many of the teams that have not been in range have still been winners.  i think the matches that haven't been in range would still be a plus figure, and also right at the start i took into account a 6.0 loss that wasn't mentioned.  people can make of that what they wish...
although you are rightly sceptical, thanks for being positive in your comments.
i didn't start on this thread to be taken seriously, it was just a way to verify what I'm doing for a short period.
if you are interested, I'm on a 89.2% strike rate after 132/148 lays since 3rd November.  do the binomdist on this and see the odds of this being positive with a s/r of 85% (0.85).
Report ticktocktimmy December 22, 2018 2:01 AM GMT
sat 23rd

lay:
Magdeburg
heidenheim
ac Ajaccio
frosinone
carpi
herha berlin
werder Bremen
Fulham
qpr
millwall
st Mirren
Livingston
hearts
santa clara
aves
lokeren
Kortrijk
Valladolid
Dijon
Toulouse
caen
guingamp
nimes


selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report nathanrh December 26, 2018 9:08 PM GMT
Magdeburg - WIN
heidenheim - LOST
ac Ajaccio - LOST
frosinone - WIN
carpi - LOST
herha berlin - WIN
werder Bremen - WIN
Fulham - WIN
qpr - LOST
millwall - WIN
st Mirren - LOST
Livingston - WIN
hearts - WIN
santa clara - LOST
aves - WIN
lokeren - WIN
Kortrijk - WIN
Valladolid - WIN
Dijon - WIN
Toulouse - LOST
caen - WIN
guingamp - LOST
nimes - WIN

Lost 8/23 - way below your 88% strike rate so far and way below the 80% you need to break even.

Interesting to see how many of these 'losers' were bets you took. Because that will be a fairly substantial loss based on the above.

Gl.
Report ticktocktimmy January 1, 2019 1:09 AM GMT
sat 22nd

lay:
Magdeburg        0.95
heidenheim       odds out of range
ac Ajaccio       odds out of range
frosinone        0.95
carpi            -4.8
herha berlin     0.95
werder Bremen    odds out of range
Fulham           odds out of range
qpr              -3.5
millwall         0.95
st Mirren        -4.75
Livingston       0.95
hearts           odds out of range
santa clara      -3.4
aves             odds out of range
lokeren          odds out of range
Kortrijk         odds out of range
Valladolid       odds out of range
Dijon            odds out of range
Toulouse         -4.9
caen             odds out of range
guingamp         -3.2
nimes            0.95

-18.85pts 6/12 (50%)

48/61 (78.7%) -8.15pts
Report ticktocktimmy January 1, 2019 1:14 AM GMT
bit of a mare on the 22nd......

unfortunately i went away until today and didn't post any more lays on here.
looking at sun 23rd and boxing day historical results,  could've made 6-9 points back depending on the odds drift on a possible losing lay, unfortunately can't include that on here....
Report inner city sumo January 1, 2019 10:08 AM GMT
Unlucky. I don't know how big a sample you need at these prices, I'm sure there was a formula posted up here once to determine sample sizes for testing. My guess would be several thousand as a bare minimum. And obviously as it's determined by bets drifting in and out of range being placed automatically, it's not something you can really paper trade without spending ages on site checking markets.
Report nathanrh January 1, 2019 10:58 PM GMT
Fair play to you ticktocktimmy for posting up the losers. Would have been easy to claim that your system didn't take the bets from the 22nd.

As inner city sumo has commented, you will need a much larger sample of bets to assess whether you have something that is long term profitable and I would once again question the reliability of your or any method that identifies so many selections over so many different markets.

This thread should be required reading for "systems" in general, the market-makers on Betfair are not charities putting up money in thousands of different markets at prices advantageous to the casual punter, you are betting against very significant resources and any inefficiency will be very quickly eroded (at best you will lose just to the commission rate).

So the answer to the thread question; "Does a football betting system that works exist?" is a resounding "definitely not" or not one that you are going to find on a betting forum or in the public domain.

Of course you can always try the shysters selling paid for tips, systems or trading strategy videos, because if you did have a profitable edge over the markets the first thing in the universe you'd do would be to share it with everyone ;-).

Gl all.
Report ticktocktimmy January 2, 2019 9:13 PM GMT
at this point i have been live for 170 bets, 146 winners (s/r 85.9%) from 3 Nov till now.  30.9pts from 52 matches in Nov, 13.1pts from 118 matches in Dec including the 22nd debacle...

the biggest issue with a system (apart from the obvious that it has to be successful) is that you have be across ALL the matches.  if i had missed the 22nd and a couple of other losing days out due to pure luck, then the results would be brilliant, but misleading.  likewise, if several successful days are missed out then the system looks poor instead of a possible success.

i totally agree about the point concerning betting against significant resources, however if they are basing their odds using a different methodology to what i am using, then it is hard to compare. 

am i right?  probably not,but who knows?  the odds are against me and my selections over the long term. 

are my live results the outliers in a poor system, or an indication that i am on the right path?  only time and many more selections will tell.
Report inner city sumo January 3, 2019 11:58 AM GMT
Good luck to you. It's nice to see good old fashioned systematic testing of a hypothesis. You've got a nice cushion from Nov and Dec to at the very least keep on testing with to see how it goes over a bigger sample. The fact that you're automated is obviously a plus too as you always get your bets down and get the full picture relative to your selections.
Report wolf3011 January 13, 2019 12:13 PM GMT
Basically the SPs are so accurate, trying to beat them long term is like chucking an object in the air at different points in the garden thinking gravity will affect it differently and it wont come back down to earth. There was a graph showing the correlation between outcomes and prediction using betfair SPs of thousands of games and the accuracy is frighteningly good. It doesn't matter what system  you have or " dedication", if the odds on a game are accurate and you are trying to make profit, you're doomed to failure long term and will always revert back to baseline of no profit.


The only way to succeed in profiting long term is to find  a disparity between odds offered and what they should be. If the betfair SPs are proven to be close to 100% accurate, you are defying the laws of mathematics by hoping to make any gains... it'd be like rolling dice expecting the 6 to show up more than 111 times in 666 throws purely because of a "system". I've been on this site for 15 years and reading this forum for that time and after hundreds or thousands of threads, not one has made continual profit over sufficient bets to indicate an edge. If a team starts at evens and it's proven with spreadsheets looking at how betfair SPs arise and their accuracy over tens of thousands of games to have a 50% of winning, how can any system beat odds which truly reflect the outcome?
Report Do wah Diddy January 13, 2019 8:22 PM GMT
GOOD POINT WOLFEE
Report Rigsby January 22, 2019 1:11 PM GMT
Interesting youtube vid about randomness and psychology in relation to system stats and their sequences

https://youtu.be/Ja4oJNTOsFo

I think one of the hardest things of following a "system" is battling through a losing sequence even if you believe the long term, also making the "system bet" when your brain is using other data and telling you that the outcome is unlikely to happen
Report brassneck February 19, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
back the team on the top of the table every week to win."now remember i said the team at the top,i did not mention a team,if a team at the top lose a few games they will not be on top too long.Wink+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
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