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traicue
08 Jan 18 16:39
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Date Joined: 14 Jan 16
| Topic/replies: 69 | Blogger: traicue's blog
Just wondering why there weren't more talks and discussion on betting systems on here. Even with my lack of interest in football, it is probably like the most popular sport for betting on. With the amount of games, it makes it suitable for me to system test a strategy. Feel free to give your opinions or knowledge on any systems you have come across.
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Report DFCIRONMAN January 8, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
"most popular sport to bet on"...........Why is that?

We believe we know about football and or egos take over......Trouble is football is hard to know when teams/players are going to have an "off day".

Another factor that makes it difficult to rely on players playing "intelligent"
football is many players are pretty stupid in what they do......for example :-

1. Unable to cross ball past the near post from wing position.
2. Unable to use both feet to kick ball........and they delay moves to get ball onto their "stronger" foot, allowing defenders to get back into defensive positions.
3. Forwards who hit ball straight at keepers....repetitively, instead of learning to hit ball into corner of goal.......AWAY FROM KEEPER!
4. Forwards who header ball repeatedly OVER THE BAR and don't header ball awy from keeper into corner of goal........not at keepers.
5. Players showing no technical skill in striking ball at goal and no awareness where goal is!

Players appear not to work on their skills necessary to be called a footballer.They rather spend time on their tattoosDevilGrin

Coaches who presumably want defenders to pass ball sideways or backwards, rather than improving skill in passing ball forward . This sideways passing etc allows their opponents TIME to get into defensive positions Rather a stupid way to play "football"!

Horse racing is a more reliable sport than football!
Report DFCIRONMAN January 8, 2018 5:08 PM GMT
our egos
Report starship January 8, 2018 7:17 PM GMT
bet to 101% on football and you get what u like on.

bet to 130% on greyhounds and most good judges cannot get a bet
Report traicue January 8, 2018 7:33 PM GMT
just a generally, I believe football is like a main sport compared to say just for example sake..handball? But yes, I suppose horse racing and perhaps other sports are popular. I am looking to test a system in football. I will post my progress here.
Report Charlie January 9, 2018 7:16 PM GMT
Depends on what you mean by a system. If it's something like bet every favourite at odds of 1.5 or less then no. If you mean something like I've studied this game for eight hours, looked at all the relevant stats, know the team and players well and have decided the odds are wrong then yes.
Report ericster February 17, 2018 4:24 PM GMT

Jan 9, 2018 -- 1:16PM, Charlie wrote:


Depends on what you mean by a system. If it's something like bet every favourite at odds of 1.5 or less then no. If you mean something like I've studied this game for eight hours, looked at all the relevant stats, know the team and players well and have decided the odds are wrong then yes.


I don't doubt that it's possible and the dream lives on.
It's more about playing a numbers game, percentages imo.

Report crystalhunt February 17, 2018 10:59 PM GMT
Some of us have been on here a long time traicue and seen and heard it all. The place used to be buzzing with systems, theories, and epic failures. Nothing I can remember endures and some people have gone to their rest, their hopes dashed of finding the holy grail. I'm sure many did make a living and still do, but they didn't share it on here so good luck in your quest. If it pays off, don't tell anyone.Grin
Report timbuctooth February 20, 2018 5:52 AM GMT
traicue, get yourself back to Specials, laying all early front-runners; best system on here.
Report DP325 May 9, 2018 8:14 PM BST
Hi all. Just wondering how some of the serious punters go about rating teams before an international tournament with the small availability of performance data?
Report wolf3011 May 19, 2018 10:45 PM BST

Feb 17, 2018 -- 4:59PM, crystalhunt wrote:


Some of us have been on here a long time traicue and seen and heard it all. The place used to be buzzing with systems, theories, and epic failures. Nothing I can remember endures and some people have gone to their rest, their hopes dashed of finding the holy grail. I'm sure many did make a living and still do, but they didn't share it on here so good luck in your quest. If it pays off, don't tell anyone.


completely agree, Id go so far as to say no one consistently makes long term profit on football simply betting these days, ... too many variables  and too much randomness for 22 players and dodgy officials but there will always be a new generation trying the impossible

Report ticktocktimmy May 31, 2018 7:56 PM BST
system betting, i doubt it. 
however, looking to see where the bookies may be wrong compared to your own evaluation and being selective, possibly.....
Report Slicer June 5, 2018 7:13 PM BST
I am going to Amsterdam to operate my Special World Cup Outright Winner System. I will be Dutching a number of teams to win outright and I won't be losing!
Report padlock June 5, 2018 7:43 PM BST
How many teams you backing slicer ? Was thinking about doing similar ,can only really see four teams who can win it .
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 8:12 PM BST
i devised a system returning about 20% roi which is decent but not worth the time and effort that's involved
saying that it is probably worth it if you use big sums and have a bank which can handle a bit of variance
if anyone wants to know more then PM me and i'll give you the details
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 8:16 PM BST
actually i'm just looking back on the data now and i might pick it up again for the next season

trialled it for 6 weeks

ROI 24.38%

Overall P/L    1024.05
Staked    4200

95% of the bets were odds-on so you're staking a lot to make a little but it is a fairly robust system which takes a few parameters into account
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 8:17 PM BST
that was from 106 bets^
Report Escapee June 5, 2018 9:38 PM BST
@betting_masta  24% is mighty impressive roi

But 106 bets is a very small sample size. ( several 1,000 are needed to start gaining confidence in horse racing / greyhound systems )

would the system lend itself to automation ?

I write 'n run bots for myself and others, if you think there's a chance it could be automated then I'm the man to make that happen.

Let me know if you're interested.
Report betting_masta June 5, 2018 11:30 PM BST
it takes data from another website and it requires a bit of human interaction so to speak so don't know if automation would work

the website is b e t d e v i l .com  - don't know if that helps

i am happy to share how I do it

have you got email
Report Slicer June 6, 2018 7:11 AM BST
Mr Padlock-I have got it down to 6, still a good profit, but will probably cut it down to 4 or 5. Good luck with your selections. At least this will maintain an interest for the duration of the tournament after Ingerland get knocked out.
Report betting_masta June 6, 2018 1:18 PM BST
another winner for the system last night was coritiba winning 1-0

one selection tonight is botafogo. odds aren't value but anything above 1.50 is backable
Report Escapee June 6, 2018 2:00 PM BST
betting_masta, I have pm'd you
Report ericster June 9, 2018 12:09 PM BST

Jan 8, 2018 -- 11:08AM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:


"most popular sport to bet on"...........Why is that?We believe we know about football and or egos take over......Trouble is football is hard to know when teams/players are going to have an "off day".Another factor that makes it difficult to rely on players playing "intelligent" football is many players are pretty stupid in what they do......for example :-1. Unable to cross ball past the near post from wing position. 2. Unable to use both feet to kick ball........and they delay moves to get ball onto their "stronger" foot, allowing defenders to get back into defensive positions.3. Forwards who hit ball straight at keepers....repetitively, instead of learning to hit ball into corner of goal.......AWAY FROM KEEPER!4. Forwards who header ball repeatedly OVER THE BAR and don't header ball awy from keeper into corner of goal........not at keepers.5. Players showing no technical skill in striking ball at goal and no awareness where goal is!Players appear not to work on their skills necessary to be called a footballer.They rather spend time on their tattoosCoaches who presumably want defenders to pass ball sideways or backwards, rather than improving skill in passing ball forward . This sideways passing etc allows their opponents TIME to get into defensive positions Rather a stupid way to play "football"! Horse racing is a more reliable sport than football!


And then there's the ref. He/she could have a stinker also.

As for the opening post and lack of discussion;
If someone HAS figured it out they're hardly likely to shout it for the rooftops I think.

Report roadrunner46 June 12, 2018 11:20 PM BST
apparently the best betting systems for football revolve around the draws, you need to collect all the results from all the leagues in europe for last few years and devise a betting backing/laying strategy
from the statistical data you gather. it helps if you are very good with computers.

goodluck
Report somemuppet June 15, 2018 12:48 AM BST
6 games on a saturday at  3pm .. put into 3 pairs. a and b , c and d , e and f. wait until odds hit 2.0 or less for under 0.5 goals, usually around 22mins lay all games . if goal goes in game d before it hits 2.0 then forget c and d. Proceed with other games. if goal goes in in game b then you red out in game a but make a profit. you have between 22mins and 37 mins to profit. after that you are hoping for a late goal before you break even in the relevant combination. worth sticking with .
Report ericster June 17, 2018 10:34 AM BST

Jun 12, 2018 -- 5:20PM, roadrunner46 wrote:


apparently the best betting systems for football revolve around the draws, you need to collect all the results from all the leagues in europe for last few years and devise a betting backing/laying strategyfrom the statistical data you gather. it helps if you are very good with computers.goodluck


I would, respectfully of course, disagree with the researching and gathering data. For most cowboy racing tipsters their get-out is that " history is no guarantee of the future ". I'd go along with that. It's all about the now imo and trying to read games. Team-sheets? Of course, that might be of some use. But I'd stick how a game appears to be going and yes, that go down the toilet as well. And current form, that has to be a consideration but that is only temporary isn't it.

Report roadrunner46 June 18, 2018 10:47 PM BST
last 10 years of premier league football results, which teams are the most likely to be involved in 3-2
scorelines? i would hazard a guess its more than likely the teams fighting relegation every year.
Report ericster June 19, 2018 3:31 PM BST
You get the most unlikely 0-0 draws also when teams are in  relegation battle.

League-table positions are ARE a consideration imo and I never touch cup-games.

This world cup a case in point.
Report nathanrh June 21, 2018 2:32 AM BST
My opinion for what its worth is that all public betting systems for anything are a total crock. If you actually were able to achieve some of the edges banded about on this thread you would have a virtual license to print money (the very last thing you'd do is share it).

I can't stress enough to everyone the resources you are up against on BF, market makers that offer the money up for Vietnam division 2 games or similar such quality are most definitely not charities, anyone betting on just about anything and everything is highly unlikely to have an edge.

The key is to specialise, to develop a set of criteria that the market has potentially overlooked and with football just about any data you can obtain publicly has already been factored into the prices by someone far smarter than you, either that or you specialise solely in Vietnam division 2.....

Anyone can do some statistical retro-fitting to produce a system, with any set of known results it is relatively easy to define a set of filters that excludes enough losers to look like a winning strategy, but others are crunching exactly the same data and markets adjust incredibly efficiently to grind those edges down to losses after commission.

Gl to all.
Report ericster June 21, 2018 4:13 PM BST
I'd go along with that nathanrh. Which brings us back to that old chestnut " self-discipline ". If are able to find something that worx, stick with it.
Report betting_masta June 23, 2018 10:02 PM BST
where's all the money going then?
there's millions turned over in the football markets every single day - somebody is up - where/who is he?? you can't tell me everyone is breaking even
Report betting_masta June 23, 2018 10:02 PM BST
it's probably the pareto principle. 80% of the money on betfair is going to 20% of the people. that means 80% on here are losing
Report nathanrh June 24, 2018 8:13 AM BST
The money is going (in no particular order) to the following:

1. Betfair themselves, doesn't matter who is winning, the commission keeps rolling in, I'm horrified when I check my BF points and realise just how much of an edge this sucks out.
2. Fixers / Insiders / In-the-know syndicates - where predictability of results covers 60% premium charges.
3. Market makers - specialist businesses that grind out 0.5-1% edges through favourable commission arrangements.
4. Other books laying off liabilities on BF.
5. A small number of clever individuals most likely using data driven or specialised approaches to grinding out a living.

If you aren't one of the above you are paying for the above ;-).

The problem is, "3% pa for life" doesn't excite anyone, especially not gamblers, even though it would be an incredibly lucrative proposition if you could just keep turning over bets.
Report ericster June 24, 2018 5:23 PM BST
Interesting thoughts nathanrh.
Report betting_masta June 24, 2018 7:26 PM BST
agree about the 3% thing pa. most people want it fast and that's why they lose. "winning" in that way is actually incredibly boring and a lot of people gamble for the "fun" or the enjoyment in whatever way, and if they win great. the point is there is lots of money floating around, all you need to do is put more work in than 99% of people will do and you can make that 3%+ pa
Report Slicer June 26, 2018 12:46 PM BST
3% p.a.-- SO to make 30k a year one would have to turn over 1 million a year. I would say that most on here would settle for 30k a year BUT who among us is prepared to risk/turn over 1 mill? As for me, I wouldn't get out of bet for a paltry 30k a year. If you are prepared to settle for that, go and get a proper job so as not to risk 1 mill. And in the past BetFairs own figures showed that approx. 1.1% of BetFair users make a sustainable living profit p.a. on here. So we are all up against it unless we have the Edge. And as far as I know, The Edge has not left U2 so most of us are up against it!!! I hope this clarifies the matter.
Report trebor June 26, 2018 2:58 PM BST
Risking a million a year is not the same as turning over a million a year, turning over a million a year you would probably never have more than a few hundred at risk at any one time.
Report ericster June 26, 2018 4:52 PM BST

Jun 26, 2018 -- 8:58AM, trebor wrote:


Risking a million a year is not the same as turning over a million a year, turning over a million a year you would probably never have more than a few hundred at risk at any one time.


Exactly.

You just need to have plan that works. Seemples.

Report ericster June 26, 2018 4:57 PM BST
Also, hopefully, your betting-bank will, or SHOULD BE, profit-based. So all you ever risked was your start-up. To be recouped when you start the creaming off process.
Report Slicer June 26, 2018 6:59 PM BST
My posts were based on laying. So I would certainly have to be risking a million to win 30k. Also turning theory into reality is much more difficult than many novices on here believe! I have developed a laying method on the horses and I lay at odds of up to 30. That is sneered at in many quarters as being too high a price at which to lay. If my method picks a selection, I don't care what the price is as long as its not over 30. In the past weeks I have been risking up to £1500 a selection. Let's say 6 selections a day on average-it would only take me approx. 160 days to risk 1 mill in total. I hope this clarifies the matter. All figures approximate.
Report trebor June 26, 2018 9:10 PM BST
Well laying makes it even easier and less risky to hit the 30k target, I think you will find it is changing the sport from football to horse racing and laying 30/1 shots makes the difference, but you are still no where near risking a million, Lay 666 straight 30/1 winners in 111 days and you will have lost a million, but that is little unlikely.


I don't agree with this 3% profit thing either I think it is a fair bit higher than that, I know nothing about football, in fact I could only name one current England player and certainly do far better than 3% and with very little risk.
Report Slicer June 27, 2018 7:30 AM BST
Fair enough. Thanks for your reply. Whatever works is the way to go. The bottom line is the profit/loss account. Good luck.
Report nathanrh June 30, 2018 11:11 PM BST
trebor.

3% is a massively lucrative proposition over the long term and on here it is relatively easy to turnover a large amount of money.

Of course in a relatively short period of time or sequence of bets one can show an ROI many times better than my hypothetical 3%, but the more you play the more likely it is you mean revert to your actual true edge, and that is the rub ultimately, the more you play, the more you need to play (earning a living) the more likely you approach that true figure and that leads me on neatly to the point below.....

On a sport such as mainstream football, those 3% edges (likely much higher because of BF's commission) definitely don't exist. If you could avoid the commission that edge would be 6-8%.....that would be a virtual license to print money and there would still be a reasonable statistical probability you could go bust along the way.

I'm not saying you can't make it pay but being ignorant to the resources you are up against makes me seriously question the likelihood of someone being a long term winner ;-).

Gl.
Report ericster July 1, 2018 9:50 AM BST

Jun 30, 2018 -- 5:11PM, nathanrh wrote:


trebor.3% is a massively lucrative proposition over the long term and on here it is relatively easy to turnover a large amount of money.Of course in a relatively short period of time or sequence of bets one can show an ROI many times better than my hypothetical 3%, but the more you play the more likely it is you mean revert to your actual true edge, and that is the rub ultimately, the more you play, the more you need to play (earning a living) the more likely you approach that true figure and that leads me on neatly to the point below.....On a sport such as mainstream football, those 3% edges (likely much higher because of BF's commission) definitely don't exist. If you could avoid the commission that edge would be 6-8%.....that would be a virtual license to print money and there would still be a reasonable statistical probability you could go bust along the way.I'm not saying you can't make it pay but being ignorant to the resources you are up against makes me seriously question the likelihood of someone being a long term winner ;-).Gl.


I wouldn't necessarily go along with your suggestion that " the more you play the more you need to play. "


I would respectfully suggest that with experience that a pro gains, he, or she, cuts their plays to an absolute minimum but ups the ante. No?

Report Slicer July 1, 2018 11:58 AM BST
Ericster-you are absolutely right. But only PROPUNTERS like you and me with extensive and long experience know this. Others have to learn it the hard way! It's not how long it takes, it is how much it costs!
Report ericster July 1, 2018 12:03 PM BST
Slicer,
I'm no pro but I'm finally coming to terms with the reality of what is.
Just an old man now looking for a bit of profit.
Report Slicer July 1, 2018 1:13 PM BST
You will get there -if you live long enough and I am NOT being facetious!
Report ericster July 1, 2018 1:22 PM BST
" Live long enough"?

Do I care?

Just trying to get by.

Thanks Slicer.
Report freddiewilliams July 1, 2018 2:43 PM BST
Smarkets. Matchbook. Zero percent...
Report nathanrh July 1, 2018 9:01 PM BST
ericster,

I know you understand my point(s) from discussions we've had in the past.

What I'm essentially saying is that 3% edges (again don't forget the commission, the 0% books have it priced in so no advantage there) aren't just lying around here on a daily basis in mainstream football markets for someone to take advantage of, sharps bet very selectively and stake usually using some form of Kelly only when they are sure it is advantageous over the market.

Assuming you are a 'sharp' identifying value, do you really think with all the automation and market making resources out there you will be able to snap up lots of value without the market adjusting and eroding your margin? & then don't also forget 'variance', even those that can identify value long term can go bust in a long losing streak.

So many on here are simply just taking punts on anything and everything that BF has to offer, edges everywhere - and if you are paying your bills with BF how tempting will it be to take risks and blow your bank betting in markets you have no advantage over.

This is a HARD game; underestimating it or relying on 'systems' will find you a one way trip to the poorhouse.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 9:58 AM BST
nathanr,

I'm not sure that I understand your post or why you posted it.

I shall just keep amusing myself in a serious kind of way, if that makes any sense, and I shall either make a few quid or I won't. Whatever.

Enjoying the thread.

Keep posting guys.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 10:33 AM BST
Can I just say that I think you guys, and I've been there, seem to spend countless hours crunching numbers driven by words like margin,percentages, tying yourselves in knots with results that happened last week, last month, last year.

You over complicate imo.

Keep it simple.

If you have any sort of an inclination that something might be occurring and then re-occurring , seeing any sort of a pattern/trend/whatever you want to call it emerging, go after it single-mindedly and you don't need a calculator to see if it's working. Just look at your a/c balance. It sinks or it swims.

And by the way I would strongly suggest that you won't make ANYTHING work until you stick to it,

SELF-DISCIPLINE

SELF-DISCIPLINE

SELF-DISCIPLINE.

End of.

Sincere regards, and GOOD LUCK.
erics.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 1:21 PM BST
nathanrh.

Interesting posts, not sure we are talking about the same thing as I am coming from a trading angle and maybe your 3% is a betting number?  But I am also going to guess that you will tell me it makes no difference as it depends on the value obtained?

Have seen many posts on here over the years on this subject and guess the general theme of them would be getting more negative over the years, it is for that reason I am grateful that many of them go rite over my head, still remember 45 years ago at school thinking "who is ever gonna need this algebra cr@p"  I don't disagree with a lot of what you post, but do disagree with your comment at the end of your post about the 5 ways people win on Betfair "if you are not one of the above you are paying for the above", you seem to only see the negative, have to much reliance in your figures and little faith in what other methods produce.

17 years ago when I was new to exchanges if I saw a thread like this one,  it would start me thinking about ways to create a system, many times while walking the dog or falling asleep at night I would think of a way doing it, only to find out that when put down on paper something was amiss. I knew if it was possible no one would ever give away their systems, but remember thinking that maybe someone could just be kind enough let me know if it was possible.

Well I am happy to tell you that you what I would have liked to have known 17 years ago that it is possible. But I also agree with nathanr that football is one of the easiest sports for compilers to be spot on mathematically with prices at any given time before or in play, but maybe with a little help from nathanr I can show you what they don't have control over.

nathanr as I type England are 7.4 to win the World Cup (101.5% market), if I bet £100 on them and hypothetically did that 100 times in an exact same situation and they won 15 times of those 100 what would my ROI be?



Ericster ..I would respectfully suggest that with experience that a pro gains, he, or she, cuts their plays to an absolute minimum but ups the ante. No?


Being selective is the biggest advantage you can have, but for me size of bet depends on the market, two golf markets last 4 days I used completly diferent sized stakes as one a lot less liquid than the other, and could give away lots if needing to get out of a trade, I always pay more attention the loss than the potential winnings.  Pre off football market would use larger stakes as will do in The Open golf in a couple of weeks time.

As you say self discipline is good as well of course, bit dangerous being on any betting site if you do not have discipline.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 2:46 PM BST
trebor,
the size of bet IS/WOULD BE dictated by the mkt obviously but at the level I'm at right now, barely out of the two-quidding, I manage. Would love mkt size to be factor. The dream lives right now.
Report Andriy July 2, 2018 3:24 PM BST
"not sure we are talking about the same thing as I am coming from a trading angle and maybe your 3% is a betting number"

It's just the edge/ROI/yield (for me all interchangeable as a straight bettor ie bet and leave it, rather than a trader). If, let's say over a football or flat racing season, you bet £10,000 and make a profit of £300 (ie get £10,300 back), 300/10000=3%.


"as I type England are 7.4 to win the World Cup (101.5% market), if I bet £100 on them and hypothetically did that 100 times in an exact same situation and they won 15 times of those 100 what would my ROI be?"

true price=6.67 (100/15)
price obtained=7.4

Edge/ROI=7.4/6.67=1.109 (ie 10.9%)
Report trebor July 2, 2018 3:26 PM BST
With market size I hope I did not come across as if I was placing big bets and needed there to be lots of money in the market to accommodate me, that's never really a problem.Laugh but even if it was a £2 bet you wanted to trade out of in a in-liquid market it will cost you to get out because of gaps in the prices. not so important in mainstream football, and a trading thing rather than a betting angle as well I suppose.


After 17 years on here full time I tend to think of things from a trading side, but I do know the last time I placed a bet on here, and by bet I mean backing something because I felt it was good value and did not intend to trade out. The bet was approx summer of 2006 on Leigh Adams to win a round in the world speedway championship, placed because he was riding on his home track and the odds did not represent that, I let the bet run the whole way and think I won £14!! he was 7/1.  £1000's, £100's or £2 the principle should always be the same only bet what you are really prepared to lose.

I would put aside a betting bank and divide it into bets that don't mean too much and see where it takes you, betting too big or from your pocket and you will miss bets that you know deep down you should have taken.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 3:36 PM BST
And that's another old chestnut.

Staking Plan.
Fixed stake or percentage?

Fixed stake might be considered the real test but even with percentage betting it would soon become apparent if you weren't getting anywhere.

At the moment, mkts permitting, I intend to stake a percentage of my bank. Right now I'm trying to build. I won't be throwing my hard earned at this. Also, my targets are modest. Yes, of course. 100K pa would be nice but if I could find a way of supplementing my pension with a few quid a week when I retire that would great. Assuming I live that long of course.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 3:36 PM BST
Andriy

First glance and I thought I ain't gonna understand this, but no problems I did, well explained, my non mathematically minded way was 8500 loses divided by 9600 wins = 11.46, I was close.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 3:47 PM BST
I suppose percentage you will be placing smaller stakes on your winning bets if you expect losing runs, am sure someone can give good advice on it tho, just takes a lot longer to get your answers now than it used to.
Report ericster July 2, 2018 3:54 PM BST
trebor,
thinking about what you've said, and not reckoning on losing runs, I've thought about, after a win calling my bank ten individual bets, then, if I lose one my bank has nine bets left, counting down to eight seven and so on,on the premise that if it runs out it was a turkey anyway.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 4:17 PM BST
Andriy, nathanrh or anyone,  here is a question then, and I don't know the answer but am pretty sure we will disagree.

I place a bet of £1000 because I believe the odds are going to move 2 ticks in my favour to gain £100 green after trading out. it is a match odds football market.

I have 27 instance's of placing this bet (certainly not all for above stake) of these 11 made the two tick profit, 8 made a one tick profit, 7 scratched and 1 loser of 20% of stake, so £1300 winnings, £27000 staked, what would the ROI be?
Report nathanrh July 2, 2018 5:30 PM BST
Great to see some really interesting responses on this thread - I will add some more of my thoughts later, however trebor.....

2 ticks makes a green £100 profit from a £1000 stake, what were the prices taken?, the arithmetic looks wrong ;-).
Report trebor July 2, 2018 5:52 PM BST
It's the draw in match odds, 3.50 dropping to 3.40 for example.
Report nathanrh July 2, 2018 6:03 PM BST
So back stake is £1000 at 3.5.....lay stake is?

Cheers.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 6:14 PM BST
With you now, my adding up is wrong, would have probably picked up my mistake if using my stakes, but I have used all different stakes, plus I have traded the correct scores at same time as connected of course.


So in reality I would have used the green on the draw and taken it in-play, backed over 2,5 and one maybe 2 other scores, but for this example we will say I laid off for £1000 and greened match scores.
Report trebor July 2, 2018 6:22 PM BST
May still be confusing, laid £1029.40 to green match scores.
Report ericster July 5, 2018 5:40 PM BST
trebor,

just curious.

Are you talking inplay here or before the off.


I had a go at a similar thing with the nil-nil leading up to k/o.
Sometimes, when the pink side of the mkt seems  weak you can go for a quick one but it IS a minefield imo.
Report trebor July 5, 2018 7:59 PM BST
Before Kick off, I would not worry about the weight of money, but lets say the fav is drifting then either the dog or draw has to shorten, fav drifting means less goals expected so favour's the draw shortening, unders will give clues as well
Report ericster July 6, 2018 5:28 PM BST
trebor,
maybe the match mkt is less volatile than the nil-nil but with a grand in there I'd worry.
Report trebor July 6, 2018 7:15 PM BST
ericster

Greened up the win or lose is just £15 a tick, and it is a fully formed market which means you have liquidity to get out normally for no loss.

I highlighted this trade tho because of the discussion on this thread about 'perfect markets' and not being able to make more than 3% ROI, those conditions create good trading conditions imo, and I also chose this trade because of its incredibly small ROI, but is it??

The stake may be £1000 but how much of that stake is really at risk, of course never put any amount of money up if you are not prepared to lose it all, Betfair could go down. If this was a straight bet on the draw then you can expect to lose the full stake more times than you win, so ROI has a use. But when trading trying to make a couple of ticks it seems to me more of a evens bet, make £100 or lose £100 but with an advantage on the winning side, plus if it is a loss you can make it just a £30 loss.

So am I wrong, I know I will get told I am, but you gonna have to convince me.
Report ericster July 7, 2018 11:16 AM BST
trebor,

obviously if you're looking to green up and not stay in all you're really risking is the value of a couple ticks, as you call them. If you're doing this on a regular basis you must be getting something out of it and if you are I can't/wouldn't knock it. Profit is profit. Good for you mate.

Many years ago someone said to me in one of the bf 4ums, and I quote, "It's not about winning, it's about not losing." I've never forgotten that. Think about that for a moment.

Yes of course it's about winning but what if you never EVER had another losing trade?

You'd have to have winning days sometimes and how cool would that be.

So if you're making a profit and you're happy with it GO with it and good luck.
Report ericster July 8, 2018 11:48 AM BST
Yknow?
Lol,
I imagine so many, or maybe not so many, pros watching this, wanting,itching to comment but.....
Report nathanrh August 5, 2018 9:29 PM BST
trebor,

So as I understand your strategy;

1. Back the draw for £1000.
2. Lay the draw as soon as the price ticks downwards (for £15 profit on all selections).

My question:

1. In a liquid market how many minutes of the game (rough guess will do) have to elapse for you to get your lay matched?

And therein lies the problem. Markets on here typically adjust using fairly well understood time decay principles, the draw price gets shifted downwards on a fairly consistent time-delay curve (the rate might be slightly adjusted depending on how the game feels but ultimately the curve works its way down to 1.01 assuming no goals are scored).

I just don't see the 'edge'. Your system works as long as you can trade out, but there will be far too many matches with goals in the first 5 minutes so how can you consistently identify those matches where there won't be an early goal?

Cheers.
Report trebor August 5, 2018 10:30 PM BST
Have never had a goal scored before trading out!!  the trade is before kick off Happy
Report nathanrh August 7, 2018 6:18 PM BST
So effectively you are trying to trade on pre-match price movement (in this instance the draw).

I still don't see the edge unless you have some sophisticated method of predicting that a price will move the way you would like (and by sophisticated I mean something the market doesn't or won't have accounted for).

Sometimes the market will move pre-match the way you want, other times it will drift and others you most likely just have to scratch the trade. All of those will even out in the long run and you will lose to your commission rate. The best I can say is that at least you aren't totally chancing your arm by allowing a position to go in-play.....

Tell me if I'm misunderstanding? or if you are massively in profit over the last 5-10 years. If you are actually in profit be sure to tell me (privately) your selection criteria, I'll be retired in a few years if it holds up ;-).

Cheers.
Report ticktocktimmy December 8, 2018 11:51 PM GMT
While I don't believe you can operate a system based on a rigid selection policy,  a selection process can be devised that is organic and takes into account factors other than recent form/historical data/teamsheets.

i have just started in december a live trial at minimum stakes of a method of selection to lay teams that is so far scarily positive.

it has a strike rate of 88.68% (47/53) with average odds of 4.93 (79.72%), with similar figures previously paper testing and back testing.

so far, it is 20.95 points up at level stakes taking into account 5% commission.

I am now waiting for the wheels to fall off.......................

i know the forum is full of sceptics - and rightly so - therefore i will put up the selections highlighted for tomorrow.

this is usually the kiss of death for any method, but as i'm waiting for this method of selection to regress to the mean anyway, i'll tempt fate.

Lay Ural
Lay Levante
Lay Heracles
Lay AC Horsens
Lay Caen
Lay FC Zurich
Lay Reims
Lay Aris
Lay Charleroi
Lay Torino

I lay 30mins before kick off, providing the odds are in my desired range, therefore one or two of these may not be layed.   I can hear the howls of derision already about aftertiming etc. but it is what it is and you can take this at face value, or pull it to pieces, its up to you.
Report inner city sumo December 9, 2018 11:33 AM GMT
Good luck. Irrespective of whether it works out or not this has always been the fun part of gambling for me- coming up with a hypothesis and testing it.
Report nathanrh December 9, 2018 8:39 PM GMT
I'm with inner city sumo, I wish you good luck (you will need it). Russia, Spain, France, Denmark, Switzerland, Greece, Italy, Holland.....that's some knowledge you must have over the market ;-).

A while back there was a thread on the footie forum laying away teams (in the 5-6 range as I recall), it went down spectacularly and the author just couldn't accept he was making selections blindfolded with a dart.

Please post up the results. After a good number of selections we'll see if you mean revert.
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 9:50 PM GMT
Lay Ural      +0.95
Lay Levante   +0.95
Lay Heracles   +0.95
Lay AC Horsens -5.0
Lay Caen       +0.95
Lay FC Zurich  +0.95
Lay Reims      +0.95
Lay Aris       +0.95
Lay Charleroi  +0.95
Lay Torino     +0.95

Total 9/10  +3.55pts

Today looks ok, but there were 4 other matches that became selections, 3 winners and 1 loser @6.0
Therefore 12/14 (85.7%)  profit +1.4pts
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
@nathanrh

like i mentioned earlier, i am moving away from looking at fixtures purely in the quantitative sense.  i look more at the qualitative research of fixtures and don't need to have an in depth knowledge of the league.  as you may have already worked out, it is more of a ratings based selection process.

your input is appreciated and as you correctly state, i am waiting for it to revert.........
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
@nathanrh

like i mentioned earlier, i am moving away from looking at fixtures purely in the quantitative sense.  i look more at the qualitative research of fixtures and don't need to have an in depth knowledge of the league.  as you may have already worked out, it is more of a ratings based selection process.

your input is appreciated and as you correctly state, i am waiting for it to revert.........
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:21 PM GMT
@inner city sumo

thanks.  it is fun coming up with an idea and giving it a go.  in the old days on the forum there was always someone trialing something and going down in flames....
i was not going to bother doing this because of the attitudes of some forum users who instead of being constructive with criticism, just talk trash and bring a thread down.
i'll see how this goes for now, not sure how disciplined i can be to post all selections as some come into force quite late, so i'll just take the after timing jibes Happy
Report ticktocktimmy December 9, 2018 10:56 PM GMT
there appear to only be a couple of possible selections until Thursday.

Lay Appalon Smirnis
Lay AGF Aarhus

As before, selections may slip in our out, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update
Report ticktocktimmy December 10, 2018 10:24 PM GMT
Lay Appalon Smirnis  +0.95
Lay AGF Aarhus       +0.95

14/16  (87.5%)  profit 3.3pts
Report nathanrh December 10, 2018 11:19 PM GMT
2 winners - just a thought, both of those (especially the Greek one) must have been pretty high prices, can you post up the prices you are laying at? An 87.5% S/R is meaningless unless we can see the prices taken ;-).
Report ticktocktimmy December 11, 2018 1:18 PM GMT
i agree, a %figure is no good without having something to compare it to.  the average odds for selections is 4.96 for the last 150 selections, of which the last 16 have been posted on here.  this gives a value of 79.84% required to break even not taking into account commission.  as you can see from the results the two losing selections were at 6.0.  there is obviously an acceptable operating price range and i use automated software to make the selection 30 mins before kickoff, so it is literally fire and forget.
Report ticktocktimmy December 11, 2018 1:37 PM GMT
lay Livingston

odds have drifted into the price range today.  we'll see what happens @kickoff -30 mins
Report ticktocktimmy December 11, 2018 9:49 PM GMT
lay Livingston  +0.95

15/17 (88.23%)  Profit 4.25pts
Report nathanrh December 11, 2018 11:12 PM GMT
Better factor in that commission rate - it isn't insignificant.

At some point you are going to have to think a little about how to maximise the profits with something other than level staking (correct me if you using something different).

Of course I'm still projecting that your strike rate will mean revert to the prices you are taking and then you will at best lose to your commission rate. A couple of losers on the trot in this price range (they will most definitely happen) and you are down in flames.

Good luck.
Report ticktocktimmy December 12, 2018 8:16 AM GMT
I factor in the commission with the results by allowing 0.95 points for a positive result.
I use level stakes on here as it is easier to keep track and then don’t then get into a discussions over the merits of various staking plans.
I said at the start of this that I expect the results to tail off, with posting the selections on the forum to be the kiss of death...
I’ll maybe go for a little longer and see how it goes. 
Thanks for the interest.
Report ticktocktimmy December 13, 2018 10:13 PM GMT
Lay Argentinos Jrs
Report ticktocktimmy December 13, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
Lay Arminia Bielefeld
Lay Niort

Possibles depending on odds @kickoff
Lay ADO den Haag
Lay Cremonese
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